Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of 19.13 CNY per share, compared to the current price of 14.39 CNY [4][8]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 772 million CNY for the first half of 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 23.56%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 180 million CNY, up 31.56% year-on-year, and the net profit excluding non-recurring items was 179 million CNY, an increase of 33.36% year-on-year. In Q2 2024 alone, revenue reached 387 million CNY, a 35.35% increase year-on-year, with net profit attributable to shareholders at 103 million CNY, up 71.31% year-on-year [2][3]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For the first half of 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 772 million CNY, with a year-on-year growth of 23.56%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 180 million CNY, reflecting a 31.56% increase year-on-year. The second quarter of 2024 saw a revenue of 387 million CNY, a 35.35% increase year-on-year, and a net profit of 103 million CNY, up 71.31% year-on-year [2][3]. Business Structure and Growth - The company optimized its business structure, with self-owned vessel charter income and time charter income increasing by 35.60% and 46.82% year-on-year, respectively. However, income from chartering externally owned vessels decreased by 69.08% year-on-year. The gross margin improved by 2.17 percentage points year-on-year due to this optimization. The overseas revenue reached 292 million CNY, a significant increase of 112.37% year-on-year, indicating strong growth in foreign trade [2][3]. Future Outlook - The company is expected to maintain steady growth in domestic trade while expanding its foreign trade operations. Two vessels with a total deadweight of 11,200 tons are planned to be operational in Q3 2024, and two additional vessels of 13,000 tons are scheduled for delivery in 2025. The rapid expansion of capacity positions the company to benefit from the upward cycle in the market [2][3]. Earnings Forecast - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are projected to be 1.28 CNY, 1.47 CNY, and 1.79 CNY, respectively. The company is expected to achieve a compound annual growth rate of 26%, and a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 15 times for 2024 is applied, leading to a reasonable value of 19.13 CNY per share [2][3].

[Table_Title] 建筑材料行业 收储有望加快落地，淡季建材景气弱势震荡 [Table_Summary] 核心观点： ⚫ 目前建材基本面受地产景气影响仍在左侧、基建需求也一般，需等待地 产企稳，但部分优质龙头企业仍表现出较强的经营韧性，如二手房和存 量房翻新需求支撑下零售建材韧性强、周期建材龙头在底部仍有显著 的超额利润。建议积极关注水泥龙头底部配置机会，同时继续关注基本 面韧性强的零售建材，和部分结构性景气赛道（玻纤、出海、药玻等）。 ⚫ 消费建材：地产仍在寻底，龙头公司经营韧性强。消费建材长期需求稳 定性好（受益存量房需求）、行业集中度持续提升、竞争格局好的优质 细分龙头中长期成长空间仍然很大。2024 年地产仍在寻底，新开工面 积预计回落至中期较低水平，地产政策转变有望先带来销售面积好转； 核心龙头公司盈利领先地产行业实现有韧性的复苏。看好三棵树、兔宝 宝、北新建材、伟星新材、中国联塑、东鹏控股、东方雨虹，关注坚朗 五金、箭牌家居、蒙娜丽莎、科顺股份、志特新材、王力安防。 ⚫ 水泥：淡季需求疲软，价格震荡调整，等待天气好转需求恢复带来的 涨价机会。据数字水泥网，截至 2024 年 8 月 9 日 ...

[Table_Title] 基础化工行业 国务院部署加快绿色转型，维生素景气再加速 [Table_Summary] 核心观点： ⚫ 行业基础数据跟踪：据 wind 资讯，8 月 3 日~8 月 9 日，SW 基础化工 板块下降 1.82%，跑输万得全 A 指数 0.74pct；化工子行业下跌较多， 表现较差的有橡胶助剂、涂料油墨、锦纶和钾肥等板块，表现较好的有 无机盐、粘胶和煤化工等板块。 ⚫ 化工品价格下跌较多:据百川、wind 资讯，在我们跟踪的 336 个产品 中,上涨、持平、下跌的产品数量分别为 68 种、152 种、116 种,占比 分别为 20%、45%和 35%。化工品价格下跌较多。价格涨幅前五：维 生素 A(50 万 IU/g)、维生素 E、维生素 B3(烟酸)、美国 HenryHub 期 货、聚醚胺。价格跌幅前五：液氯、棉短绒(短丝)、EVA(光伏用）、EVA(发 泡用）、MIBK。 ⚫ 国务院部署加快绿色转型。根据同花顺资讯，中共中央、国务院发布关 于加快经济社会发展全面绿色转型的意见，系中央层面首次对加快经 济社会发展全面绿色转型进行系统部署。其中提到，大力推动钢铁、有 色、石化、化工、 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of 12.61 CNY per share based on a PE of 25X for 2024 [3]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 999.7 million CNY for the first half of 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 7.18%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 77.93 million CNY, up 3.86%, while the net profit excluding non-recurring items was 65.91 million CNY, reflecting a growth of 12.92% [1]. - The performance showed a positive trend with all three major business segments recovering to varying degrees. The revenue for Q1 and Q2 of 2024 was 468 million CNY and 528 million CNY, respectively, with year-on-year increases of 6.32% and 7.94% [1]. - The company is expanding its global presence, having established laboratories in various countries including Japan, and now serves nearly 7,300 clients across approximately 90 countries and regions [1]. Financial Summary - The company expects its net profit attributable to shareholders to reach 210 million CNY, 249 million CNY, and 293 million CNY for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively [2]. - Revenue projections for the upcoming years are 2.211 billion CNY for 2024, 2.512 billion CNY for 2025, and 2.858 billion CNY for 2026, with growth rates of 10.4%, 13.6%, and 13.8% respectively [2]. - The EBITDA is projected to be 394 million CNY in 2024, increasing to 541 million CNY by 2026 [2].

Industry Investment Rating - The industry is rated as "Buy" [1] Core Views - The report focuses on the cost support of imported coal from Australia, particularly the medium to long-term bottom support for market coal prices [1] - Australia's high-quality coal exports, especially medium to high-calorific value thermal coal, play a significant role in the international coal trade [1][7] - Over the past three years, cash costs per ton of coal for Australian coal-related companies have generally increased, with an average cumulative increase of 48% from 2020 to 2023 [1][9] - The increase in royalty rates in Queensland and New South Wales has further contributed to cost growth, with rates expected to continue rising in 2024-2025 [1][13] - The report analyzes the cost structure of importing coal from Australia under high, medium, and low cash cost scenarios, providing insights into the economic viability of importing coal to China [1][16][17][20][23] - The long-term price of Qinhuangdao 5500 kcal coal is expected to remain above 700 RMB/ton, with key companies maintaining high safety margins in terms of performance, valuation, and dividend yields [1][25][26] Summary by Sections 1. Why Focus on the Australian Market? - Australia is a key player in the international coal trade, ranking second in export volume and providing high-quality medium to high-calorific value thermal coal [1][6] - China's imports of thermal coal from Australia have normalized, reaching 49.35 million tons in 2023, accounting for 14% of China's total thermal coal imports [7] - Despite some market share being taken by Indonesia and Russia, Australia's role as a benchmark for medium to high-calorific value thermal coal remains significant [7] 2. Key Changes in Australian Coal Companies - Over the past three years, cash costs per ton of coal for Australian coal-related companies have risen significantly, with an average cumulative increase of 48% from 2020 to 2023 [1][9] - Royalty rates in Queensland and New South Wales have increased, with Queensland introducing a progressive royalty tax in July 2022 and New South Wales raising export royalty rates by 2.6% starting July 2024 [13][14] - Representative companies such as BHP, Glencore, and Yancoal Australia have seen varying cost structures, with Yancoal's cost levels serving as a key reference for the Australian market [9][13] 3. Import Cost Support Analysis - The report analyzes the cost structure of importing coal from Australia under high, medium, and low cash cost scenarios [16] - High cash cost mines (e.g., BHP) are less economically viable for exporting to China when Qinhuangdao 5500 kcal coal prices are below 900 RMB/ton [23] - Medium cash cost mines (e.g., Yancoal Australia) can still profit when Qinhuangdao 5500 kcal coal prices are around 850 RMB/ton, but may face losses if prices drop below 720 RMB/ton [20] - Low cash cost mines (e.g., Peabody Energy) maintain economic viability even at lower coal prices, with a critical threshold of 680 RMB/ton for Qinhuangdao 5500 kcal coal [17] 4. Overall Conclusion - The long-term price of Qinhuangdao 5500 kcal coal is expected to remain above 700 RMB/ton, supported by long-term contract prices and import cost structures [25][26] - Key companies in the coal sector are projected to maintain an average ROE of over 11%, with a PE ratio of 12x and a dividend yield of 4.3%, indicating a high safety margin [26] 5. Key Company Valuation and Financial Analysis - The report provides detailed financial analysis and valuation metrics for key companies in the coal sector, including China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal, and Yankuang Energy [2] - These companies are rated as "Buy" with projected EPS, PE ratios, and ROE levels indicating strong financial performance and valuation attractiveness [2]

Xml [Table_Title] 家用电器行业 7 月家电出口保持较快增长 [Table_Summary] 核心观点： ⚫ 7 月家电出口保持高增。根据海关总署数据，（1）人民币口径：7 月 中国出口金额同比+6.5%（增速环比-4.2pct），1-7 月累计同比+6.7%。 7 月中国家用电器出口金额同比+16.6%（增速环比-4.3pct），1-7 月 累计同比+18.1%。（2）美元口径：7 月中国出口金额同比+7.0%（增 速环比-1.6pct），1-7 月累计同比+4.0%。7 月中国家用电器出口金额 同比+17.2%（增速环比-0.7pct），1-7 月累计同比+15.1%。 ⚫ 投资建议：白电业绩稳健增长，具备稳定 ROE 及高分红优势，下半年 有望受益以旧换新政策拉动，推荐美的集团、海信家电（A/H）、海尔 智家（A/H）、格力电器；推荐受益海外自有品牌拓展的石头科技、海 信视像。 ⚫ 一周行情回顾（2024.08.05-2024.08.09）：根据 wind 数据，沪深 300 指数周度下跌 1.6%，家电板块指数下跌 2.8%，黑色家电指数（申万） 下跌 3.3%，白电指数（申万）下跌 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 15.97 HKD per share, based on a 13X PE for 2024 [3][58]. Core Views - The dairy industry is at a cyclical low, with supply-side adjustments underway. The overall demand for dairy products remains weak due to macroeconomic factors, leading to intensified price competition and promotional activities [2][11]. - The company has a solid operational foundation, with a leadership transition expected to usher in a new phase of development. The new management is experienced and familiar with the industry, which is anticipated to help navigate the current downturn [2][28]. - The company has demonstrated strong free cash flow generation capabilities, reaching a record high of 6.82 billion CNY in 2023, with an increased dividend payout ratio of 40% [2][50][56]. - Revenue and profit forecasts for 2024-2026 indicate a slight decline in 2024, followed by recovery in subsequent years, with expected revenues of 94.1 billion CNY in 2024, 98.57 billion CNY in 2025, and 102.84 billion CNY in 2026 [2][58]. Summary by Sections 1. Industry Overview - The dairy industry is experiencing a downturn, with production volumes declining and promotional activities increasing to manage inventory [2][11]. - The average price of raw milk has dropped significantly, with a year-on-year decrease of 14.4% as of August 2024 [19]. 2. Company Operations - The company has maintained its market leadership in high-end white milk and low-temperature yogurt, with a steady increase in revenue contribution from cheese products [2][32]. - The leadership transition is expected to enhance operational strategies and market positioning [2][28]. 3. Financial Performance - The company achieved a record free cash flow of 6.82 billion CNY in 2023, indicating strong cash generation capabilities [2][50]. - The dividend payout ratio has been increased to 40%, reflecting a commitment to returning value to shareholders [2][56]. 4. Revenue and Profit Forecast - Projected revenues for 2024-2026 are 94.1 billion CNY, 98.57 billion CNY, and 102.84 billion CNY, respectively, with a forecasted decline in net profit for 2024 followed by recovery [2][58].

[Table_Title] 建筑装饰行业 加快全面绿色转型，推动清洁能源建设、钢 铁建材行业低碳升级 [Table_Summary] 核心观点： ⚫ 8 月 11 日，国务院印发《关于加快经济社会发展全面绿色转型的意见》。 ①清洁能源方面：大力发展，有序推进。《意见》提出加快西北风电光 伏、西南水电、海上风电、沿海核电等清洁能源基地建设，推进氢能 "制储输用"全链条发展。积极安全有序发展核电，保持合理布局和 平稳建设节奏。②化石能源方面：合理规划建设保障电力系统安全所 必需的调节性、支撑性煤电，加快现役机组"三改联动"。③储能电网 方面：科学布局抽水蓄能、新型储能、光热发电；建设智能电网，加 快微电网、虚拟电厂、源网荷储一体化项目建设；④制造业低碳升级： 大力推动钢铁、有色、石化、化工、建材、造纸、印染等行业绿色低 碳转型，推广节能低碳和清洁生产技术装备，推进工艺流程更新升级。 合理提高新建、改扩建项目资源环境准入门槛，坚决遏制高耗能、高 排放、低水平项目盲目上马；⑤建筑业低碳升级：推广绿色建造方式， 推动超低能耗建筑规模化发展和建筑光伏一体化建设。国务院在《意 见》中进一步细化清洁能源发展的区域领域，表述的 ...

[Table_Page] 跟踪分析|房地产 证券研究报告 [Table_Title] 房地产行业：24 年 7 月 REITs 月报 常 态 化发 行 阶段下 避 险情 绪 助推 行 情 [Table_Summary] 核心观点： 8 月初权益资产波动，债券市场调整，C-REITs 行情走势上扬。8 月 1 日至 8 月 9 日，C-REITs 市场上涨 3.03%，同期沪深 300 下跌 3.21%， 中债新综合微涨 0.01%。主要系 8 月 5 日受避险情绪影响，全球股市 受挫，大类资产出现下跌，C-REITs 作为稳健收益的资产受到避险资 产的关注。此外，7 月末及 8 月初 REITs 政策频发，发改委要求推动 REITs 常态化发行并取消收益率约束，凸显存量 REITs 的投资价值。 7 月 REITs 制度再次优化，进入常态化发行新阶段。7 月 26 日，发改 委发布《关于全面推动 REITs 项目常态化发行的通知》推动项目常态 化发行，新增燃煤发电、养老设施等资产类型，进一步扩大资产范围， 优化项目申报条件，将项目收益率要求改为现金流要求。8 月 1 日，发 改委在"推动高质量发展"系列主题新 ...

[Table_Page] 跟踪分析|银行 证券研究报告 [Table_Title] 2024 年 7 月金融数据点评 等待财政加力 | --- | --- | |-------------------------|------------| | [Table_Gr ade] 行业评级 | 买入 | | 前次评级 | 买入 | | 报告日期 | 2024-08-13 | 核心观点 [Table_Summary ： ] ⚫ 8 月 13 日，央行公布 24 年 7 月金融数据，点评如下： ⚫ 整体情况（表 1-11）：数据偏弱，等待财政加力。历年 7 月是信贷小 月，但今年 7 月较历史季节性更低，单月信贷增量创 2009 年底以来新 低，社融口径下投向实体人民币贷款为有数据以来首次为负。"票据+ 非银+其他贷款（主要是境外贷款）"的明显多增显示政策和银行信贷 供给端仍有一定诉求，实体需求偏弱是当前信贷不佳的主要制约。更值 得关注是 M1 增速，我们本来预期经过一个季度和季末月，手工补息整 改影响逐步消退，M1 增速下行加速期已过，但 7 月 M1 增速下行幅度 较 6 月份进一步扩大，显示实体经济循环仍有待畅通 ...