[Table_Title] 金属及金属新材料行业 金价仍将震荡上行 [Table_Summary] 核心观点： 基本金属：全球需求仍偏弱，美国降息预期增强，基本金属价格有望 止跌回升。全球需求仍偏弱，随着衰退担忧加剧，美联储年内降息预期 再增强，铜矿、阴极铜供给整体偏紧，预计实际需求的改善仍需时日， 基本金属价格前期下跌已充分反应需求及预期层面因素，预计短期有 望止跌回升。建议关注：洛阳钼业（A+H）、西部矿业、金诚信、中国 铝业（A+H）、云铝股份、天山铝业等。 钢铁：钢价及成本全面下跌，盈利面继续探底，关注钢厂减产。供给 端，高炉开工环比平稳，钢厂盈利率继续下降，铁水供给约束明显。需 求端，线螺采购环比大幅回落。成本端，预计低盈利率继续压制原料采 购需求。价利方面，供需格局短期弱化，购销差价预期偏弱，减产预期 提升，预计短期钢价震荡为主。建议关注：宝钢股份、华菱钢铁、久立 特材、抚顺特钢等。 贵金属：美国开启降息预期下，金价或继续震荡上行。据 Wind，美国 上周初请失业金人数略低于预期，至 7 月 27 日当周续请失业金人数略 高于预期，美国就业市场压力不减。市场对于美联储即将开启降息周期 预期持续，据 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to the company, with a target price of 41.93 CNY per share based on a 2024 PE valuation of 18 times [3]. Core Insights - The company is a global leader in tire mold manufacturing, showing stable performance growth. It has rapidly grown since entering the tire mold production market in 2002 and is a qualified supplier to major tire manufacturers like Michelin, Bridgestone, and Goodyear. The tire mold industry has high barriers to entry, and the company is expected to continue expanding its market share, with projected mold business revenue of 3.79 billion CNY in 2023 [1][24]. - The company is extending its reach into upstream mechanical components, including gas turbine and wind power casting businesses. The demand for gas turbines is expected to rise due to the increasing need for peak shaving in the new energy sector, while the wind power sector is anticipated to grow significantly by 2024-2025. The revenue from large mechanical components is projected to be 2.77 billion CNY in 2023, accounting for 38.65% of total revenue [1][24]. - The company is actively promoting the localization of CNC machine tools. It has developed significant know-how in machine tool manufacturing since its inception, and its subsidiary successfully began external sales in 2022. CNC machine tool revenue is expected to become a key growth driver, with 308 million CNY reported in 2023 [1][24]. - Revenue and profit forecasts indicate a positive growth trajectory, with expected revenues of 8.27 billion CNY, 9.22 billion CNY, and 10.06 billion CNY for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively. Net profits are projected to be 1.86 billion CNY, 2.10 billion CNY, and 2.30 billion CNY for the same years, with an EPS of 2.33 CNY, 2.62 CNY, and 2.87 CNY [2][24]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company has undergone three significant business transitions, establishing itself as a leader in tire molds and expanding into precision casting and CNC machine tools. It has developed a comprehensive product matrix and maintains long-term partnerships with over 20 Fortune 500 companies [1][24][20]. Tire Mold Business - The tire mold market is projected to reach a scale of 100 billion CNY, with high customization requirements creating substantial barriers to entry. The company has a strong competitive position due to its quality clients and technological advantages, leading to continuous market share growth [1][24][41]. Large Mechanical Components - The company has expanded into the large mechanical components sector, focusing on gas turbines and wind power. This segment is expected to contribute significantly to revenue growth, with a strong competitive edge anticipated in these markets [1][24]. CNC Machine Tools - The CNC machine tool segment is positioned for growth, with the company leveraging its extensive experience in machine tool development. The market for high-end CNC machine tools in China is expected to grow, providing further opportunities for the company [1][24]. Financial Performance - The company has shown steady revenue growth, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 15.7% from 2017 to 2023. The revenue for 2023 is reported at 7.166 billion CNY, with a net profit of 1.612 billion CNY [2][24][27].

[Table_Title] 华发股份（600325.SH） 从"以旧换新"到"存量收购"，收储显著利好周转 [Table_Summary] 核心观点： ⚫ 华发股份发布公告，拟与集团开展 120 亿元收储。24 年 8 月 10 日， 华发股份发布公告称拟与华发集团或其子公司开展存量商品房及配套 车位交易业务，不超过人民币 120 亿元。据 23 年报，公司珠海在手土 储 117 万方，按照公司珠海平均售价，120 亿元对应 43 万方销售，相 当于珠海土储的 36%。从销售金额看，收购金额相当于公司 23 年销售 额的 10%。收储有助于公司优化土储结构，提升高能级城市资源占比。 ⚫ 政治局会议明确收储，利好上市公司周转效率。24 年 7 月 30 日中央 政治局会议再次强调积极支持收购存量商品房用作保障性住房。本次 收储，为首次地方政府与上市公司间达成的大规模收储协议，为后续其 他城市与公司收储提供参考模板，是收储政策落地的重要节点。 ⚫ 从"以旧换新"到"收购存量"。24 年 8 月 1 日，公司曾发布公告称 拟转让"以旧换新"所得旧房予控股股东华发集团，共计 79 套二手房， 以购房要求推算，该收购物 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of 15.42 CNY per share based on a 25x PE valuation for 2024 [3][6]. Core Views - The company is expected to achieve a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.038 billion CNY in 2024, with projections of 1.208 billion CNY in 2025 and 1.402 billion CNY in 2026 [2][6]. - The report highlights strong performance in the environmental testing segment, driven by the successful bidding and implementation of projects, particularly in the soil testing area [7][8]. - The company is actively expanding its product lines and diversifying its business, including acquisitions to enhance digital transformation capabilities across various industries [7][8]. Financial Summary - Revenue for 2024 is projected at 6.343 billion CNY, reflecting a growth rate of 13.2% [2][8]. - The company reported a revenue of 2.791 billion CNY for the first half of 2024, a year-on-year increase of 9.2%, with a net profit of 437 million CNY, up 1.97% [7][8]. - The EBITDA for 2024 is estimated to be 1.813 billion CNY, with a steady increase in subsequent years [2][8]. - The report indicates a stable growth in major business segments, with the life sciences segment showing a revenue increase of 21.68% year-on-year [7][8].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Focus Media with a target price of 8.34 CNY per share, corresponding to a 23X PE for 2024 [1][3] Core Views - Focus Media's leading position in the elevator media industry is solidified through its extensive and high-quality point-of-sale (POS) network, particularly in high-tier cities, which serves as a competitive barrier [1] - The elevator media market still has growth potential, with Focus Media expected to benefit from both domestic market share expansion and overseas replication of its business model [1] - Focus Media's collaboration with Meituan in lower-tier cities is expected to enhance advertising coverage and operational efficiency, particularly in video elevator media [1] - The company's revenue is projected to grow steadily, with 2024-2025 revenues estimated at 12.61 billion CNY and 13.34 billion CNY, respectively, and net profits at 5.32 billion CNY and 5.75 billion CNY [1][2] Competitive Landscape - Focus Media established its dominance early through rapid expansion and strategic acquisitions, such as the merger with Framedia and Juzhong Media, which helped consolidate its market position [10] - The company's competitive advantage lies in its large-scale, high-quality POS network, which is continuously being expanded in high-tier cities while supplemented through partnerships and acquisitions in lower-tier markets [1][9] - The competitive landscape remains stable, with other players finding it difficult to challenge Focus Media's dominance due to its established POS network and cost advantages [1][9] Market Space - The elevator media market is expected to grow as brand advertising budgets shift towards this medium, with Focus Media well-positioned to capture a larger share of the domestic market [20][22] - Overseas markets present significant growth opportunities, with Focus Media successfully replicating its business model in countries like South Korea and Singapore, contributing to incremental revenue [28][29] Lower-Tier Market Opportunities - Focus Media is leveraging partnerships and acquisitions to expand its POS network in lower-tier cities, improving operational efficiency and advertising coverage [17][18] - The collaboration with Meituan is expected to enhance advertising utilization rates in lower-tier cities, particularly for video elevator media, by leveraging Meituan's extensive merchant network [36][37] Financial Projections - Focus Media's revenue is expected to grow steadily, with 2024-2026 revenues projected at 12.61 billion CNY, 13.34 billion CNY, and 14.14 billion CNY, respectively [2][38] - Net profits are forecasted to increase from 5.32 billion CNY in 2024 to 6.22 billion CNY in 2026, with EPS rising from 0.37 CNY to 0.43 CNY over the same period [2][38] - The company's gross margin is expected to improve, driven by cost optimization and increased efficiency in POS utilization [38]

[Table_Title] 环保行业 全面绿色转型意见出台，强调公用事业价格机制 [Table_Summary] 核心观点： ⚫ 中共中央、国务院发文再次强调垃圾处置费、水价等价格机制完善。 近日中共中央、国务院发布《关于加快经济社会发展全面绿色转型的意 见》，再次强调公用事业价格机制完善：垃圾处置费方面，支持地方完 善收费模式，推进生活垃圾处理收费方式改革，建立城镇生活垃圾分类 和减量激励机制；水价方面，完善居民阶梯水价、非居民用水及特种用 水超定额累进加价政策，推进农业水价综合改革。此外，《意见》中亦 提到推动传统产业（钢铁、有色、石化、化工、建材、造纸、印染等） 绿色低碳改造升级，大力发展循环经济等。 ⚫ 价格机制逐步理顺，重视固废水务运营资产价值。（1）对于固废企业 而言，市场普遍担忧在国补退坡的大环境下，企业的盈利能力或可受到 影响，但当前政策及实践案例均提供了解决办法：一方面政府在持续推 进生活垃圾处理收费方式改革，另一方面企业可提出垃圾处理费调价 申请（BOT 协议均有明确调价条款），叠加企业自身降本增效、拓展供 热及资源化业务等，在国补退坡的大背景下，行业盈利及回款的稳定性 可得到很好的保障。 ...

[Table_Page] 跟踪分析|银行 证券研究报告 [Table_Title] 银行资负跟踪 20240811 逆回购微量操作，长债利率波动加大 [Table_Summary] 核心观点： ⚫ 本期：2024/8/5~8/11，上期：2024/7/29~8/4，下期：2024/8/12~8/18。 ⚫ 央行动态：据 Wind 数据（下同），本期央行公开市场共开展 213 亿元 7 天逆回购操作，利率 1.70%，逆回购到期 7,811 亿元，整体实现净回笼 7,598 亿元。本期央行公开市场将有 213 亿元逆回购到期。本期央行逆 回购余额回落，且首次出现单日操作量低于 20 亿元、"有零有整"的微 量操作。7 月 22 日以来，逆回购操作方式改为固定利率、数量招标，这 一现象或为操作方式转变的体现，而上周前三天 DR007 显著低于 7 天 OMO 利率，OMO 需求偏弱为合理现象。目前资金利率高于 7 天 OMO 利率，且本期大额政府债缴款叠加税期扰动，预计逆回购余额有所回升。 ⚫ 政府债融资：本期政府债净缴款 4,205.83 亿元，预计下期政府债净缴款 约 6,446.45 亿元。8 月以来财政显 ...

[Table_Page] 行业专题研究|软件与服务 2024 年 8 月 12 日 证券研究报告 [Table_Title] 【广发 TMT 产业研究】美股科技股观察 | 24Q2 业绩总结与展望 Q2 业绩整体强劲，但增速趋缓，云增速回暖延续，AI 贡献继续扩大 [Tabl 分析师： 杨琳琳 yll@gf.com.cn [Table_Summary] 核心观点：（注：本文如无特别说明，数据来源均为公司财报、Earnings Call 等官方公开信息） | --- | --- | |-----------|----------------------------| | e_Author] | SAC 执证号：S0260514050004 | | | SFC CE.no: BNC117 | | | 0755-23480370 | ⚫ 股价复盘。7 月以来，美股头部科技公司 2 季报略超预期但收入增速放缓且指引延续，叠加高资本开支持续，而 AI 商业化短期低于预期，股价开始调整。展望未来，股价走势仍受两方面影响：业绩；AI 技术迭代及商业化进 程。业绩仍强但增速放缓，具体来看，广告、电商、订阅增幅放缓，云业务基本 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of 17.76 CNY per share, compared to the current price of 13.72 CNY [2]. Core Views - The company demonstrated stable performance with a revenue of 697 million CNY in H1 2024, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 10.06%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 144 million CNY, up 10.86% year-on-year [1]. - The automotive parts segment generated 629 million CNY in revenue, a year-on-year increase of 8.14%, while the smart equipment segment saw a significant growth of 32.06%, reaching 39 million CNY [1]. - The company is actively expanding its global footprint, having established a subsidiary in Thailand to enhance overseas production capacity, which is expected to further improve profitability [1]. - The company is also focusing on the development of high-precision ball screws and linear guides, targeting new markets such as industrial mother machines and humanoid robots, indicating a strong growth trajectory [1]. Financial Summary - For H1 2024, the company achieved a gross margin of 34.81%, an increase of 1.44 percentage points year-on-year, and a net margin of 20.63%, up 0.06 percentage points year-on-year [1]. - The forecast for net profit attributable to shareholders for 2024-2026 is projected at 306 million CNY, 354 million CNY, and 405 million CNY respectively, indicating a stable growth outlook [1][4]. - The company’s revenue is expected to grow from 1.34 billion CNY in 2023 to 1.95 billion CNY in 2026, with a compound annual growth rate of approximately 12.3% [4][7].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for both A-shares and H-shares of the company, with a target price of 180.24 CNY per share for A-shares and 200.27 HKD per share for H-shares [4]. Core Insights - The company reported a strong revenue growth of 65.4% year-on-year for the first half of 2024, reaching 11.996 billion CNY, while narrowing its net loss to 2.877 billion CNY [1]. - The core product, Baiyueze, saw global sales of 8.018 billion CNY in H1 2024, a significant increase of 122% year-on-year, with U.S. sales alone growing by 134.4% [1]. - The company has a rich pipeline of new drugs, with multiple candidates advancing through clinical trials, including Sonrotoclax and BGB-16673, which are in various stages of global registration [1]. Financial Summary - Revenue projections for the company are estimated at 25.177 billion CNY for 2024, 31.421 billion CNY for 2025, and 37.123 billion CNY for 2026, reflecting growth rates of 44.5%, 24.8%, and 18.1% respectively [2][3]. - The adjusted operating profit for Q2 2024 was reported at 345 million CNY, indicating improved operational efficiency driven by sales growth and cost management [1]. - The company is expected to continue narrowing its net losses, with projections of -2.876 billion CNY for 2024 and a potential return to profitability with a net profit of 1.759 billion CNY by 2026 [3].