Industry Investment Rating - The industry is rated as **Buy** [4] Core Views - The market has recently focused on the bond-selling behavior of major banks, and the report estimates the scale of government bonds held by the four major banks for investor reference [2] - The four major banks do not separately disclose the "government bond" scale, but it can be estimated through two approaches: - For **ICBC** and **ABC**, the scale of government bonds held can be obtained from the "related party transactions" section in their financial reports, with ICBC holding CNY 2.37 trillion and ABC holding CNY 1.35 trillion at the end of 2023 [2] - For **CCB** and **BOC**, the scale of government bonds can be estimated based on the "High-Quality Liquid Assets" (HQLA) balance, with CCB holding approximately CNY 1.97 trillion and BOC holding CNY 0.98 trillion at the end of 2023 [2] - Overall, the four major banks held a total of CNY 6.66 trillion in government bonds at the end of 2023, accounting for approximately 22% of the total market government bond balance of CNY 29.71 trillion [2] - By August 6, 2024, the total market government bond balance increased to CNY 31.81 trillion, and the estimated holding of the four major banks is approximately CNY 6.99 trillion [2] Government Bond Distribution - The majority of government bonds held by the four major banks are in the **hold-to-maturity** category [3] - At the end of 2023, the proportion of government bonds classified as **trading financial assets** and **other debt investments** was 1.3% and 19%, respectively [3] - The estimated non-hold-to-maturity government bond investment scale of the four major banks was approximately CNY 1.3 trillion at the end of 2023, and by August 6, 2024, it is estimated to be CNY 1.4 trillion [3] Financial Investment Structure - The financial investment structure of the four major banks shows that government bonds account for a significant portion of their financial assets [9] - **ICBC**: Government bonds account for 74.20% of financial investments, with government bonds making up 19.96% of total financial investments [9] - **CCB**: Government bonds account for 75.80% of financial investments, with government bonds making up 20.42% of total financial investments [9] - **ABC**: Government bonds account for 62.00% of financial investments, with government bonds making up 12.00% of total financial investments [9] - **BOC**: Government bonds account for 69.47% of financial investments, with government bonds making up 13.72% of total financial investments [9] Stock Valuation and Ratings - All major banks listed in the report, including **ICBC**, **CCB**, **ABC**, **BOC**, and others, are rated as **Buy** with target prices and valuation metrics provided [7]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Buy" [3] Core Insights - The internet consumer finance market has significant growth potential, with a market structure becoming increasingly concentrated due to regulatory pressures. In 2022, internet finance platforms contributed 16% to the narrow consumer credit balance in China, with consumer credit balance as a percentage of GDP at 15.7%, lower than the US's 18.4% [2][12][14] - Revenue sources and cost structures are diversified, with both light and heavy capital business models having their advantages. The revenue primarily comes from interest, loan facilitation services, and guarantee income, while costs include customer acquisition, risk control, financing, and post-loan management [2][36] - Customer acquisition strategies are evolving, with self-generated traffic and overseas expansion becoming key competitive factors. The cost of third-party online customer acquisition is high, leading to a shift towards self-generated traffic, which is expected to enhance long-term cost efficiency [2][56][58] - Key companies to watch include Qifu Technology, Xinye Technology, and Lufax, each with distinct characteristics. Qifu Technology's light capital model shows strong performance, while Xinye Technology's overseas expansion has become a significant growth driver. Lufax, transitioning to a 100% guarantee model, has faced short-term challenges but is seeing profitability improvements [2][36][68] Summary by Sections 1. Development Space and Market Structure of Internet Consumer Finance - The recovery in consumption is expected to drive growth in the consumer finance industry, with internet consumer finance playing a significant role. The industry has formed a diversified and efficient financial ecosystem supported by regulatory policies [12][14] - The regulatory environment has shifted from disorderly expansion to standardized development, with stricter controls leading to a more concentrated market [21][22] 2. Profit Models and Business Development Trends - The profit model relies on diversified capabilities and licenses, primarily focusing on joint loans and facilitation services. The business model can be categorized into light and heavy capital types, each with distinct revenue and risk profiles [36][37] - The light capital model is gaining traction, with companies like Qifu Technology showing significant growth in this area, while heavy capital models face higher risks but potentially greater returns [40][42] 3. Key Credit Technology Platforms - Major players in the industry include Qifu Technology, Xinye Technology, and Lufax, each demonstrating unique strengths in their business models and market strategies. Qifu Technology's focus on technology-driven solutions has positioned it well for growth [68][73][86]

[Table_ 相关研究： DocReport] 吉电股份（000875.SZ）:火 2024-05-05 电调峰稳定盈利，绿电投产 贡献增量 吉电股份（000875.SZ）:绿 2024-04-07 电转型利润高增，氢储并进 估值低位 [Table_Contacts] [Table_Title] 吉电股份（000875.SZ） 火电改善、绿电成长，业绩高增拟中期分红 [Table_Summary] 核心观点： ⚫ 装机增长、降本增效，2024H1 业绩同比提升 22%。公司发布 24 年中 报，24H1 公司实现营业收入 68.87 亿元（同比-9.79%），归母净利润 10.95 亿元（同比+22.03%），其中 Q1/Q2 归母净利润分别为 6.19/4.76 亿元（同比+22.94%/+20.86%），公司电力业务收入稳定，毛利率提升， 但运维等业务收入降低导致总收入下降。同时公司积极降本增效，虽然 资产负债率提升至 73.61%（同比+2.21pct），但财务费用同比降低 6.5%，此外少数股东损益同比下降 10%，带动业绩稳定提升。公司拟 中期分红 3.26 亿元，分红率 29.83%，对应最新收 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a reasonable value set at 26.73 CNY per share, corresponding to a PE valuation of 17 times for 2024 [3][6]. Core Insights - In July, the company experienced a steady year-on-year growth in pig sales, with an estimated profit of approximately 600 CNY per pig. The company sold 2.3233 million pigs in July, a decrease of 0.39% month-on-month but an increase of 9.02% year-on-year, generating revenue of 5.34 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 51.19% [1][2]. - The average selling price for pigs was 18.95 CNY per kilogram, with an average weight of 121.36 kilograms, reflecting a 1.5% decrease month-on-month. Cumulatively, from January to July, the company sold 16.7 million pigs, marking a year-on-year growth of 19.98% [1][2]. - The company has successfully reduced breeding costs, with comprehensive breeding costs dropping to 14.2 CNY per kilogram as of May. The number of breeding sows as of the end of April was 1.57 million, an increase of 20,000 from March [1][2]. - Chicken sales also saw a month-on-month increase in July, with the company selling 9.7 million chickens, a 5.2% increase from the previous month and a 2.77% increase year-on-year, generating revenue of 2.627 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 0.4% [1][2]. - The estimated profit per chicken exceeded 2 CNY, with cumulative chicken sales from January to July totaling 645 million, a slight decrease of 0.5% year-on-year [1][2]. - The report suggests that breeding profits may exceed expectations due to a combination of rising pig prices and declining costs, with the industry benefiting from a widening "scissors gap" between rising prices and falling costs [1][2]. - The forecast for the company's earnings per share (EPS) for 2024-2026 is projected at 1.57, 1.91, and 2.55 CNY per share, respectively [1][2].

[Table_Title] 国防军工行业 千帆星座首批组网卫星顺利升空，产业发展有望加速 [Table_Summary] 核心观点： ⚫ 事件：8 月 6 日，长六改运载火箭在太原卫星发射中心成功发射，随后 将千帆极轨 01 组卫星送入预定轨道，任务取得圆满成功。 ⚫ 千帆极轨 01 组卫星首次实现了我国平板式卫星批量化研制，远期将部 署 1.5 万余颗卫星。根据中国科学院微小卫星创新研究院公众号，"千 帆星座"是我国正在建设的低轨卫星互联网星座计划之一，其由上海垣 信卫星科技有限公司作为运营方主导规划、建设、运营等业务，"千帆 星座"空间段远景规划将部署 1.5 万余颗卫星。上海微小卫星工程中心 是"千帆星座"承研方之一，主要负责卫星系统的研制工作，包括平台 产品、有效载荷的研制以及整星的总装、集成、测试等工作。根据中国 航天基金会公众号 2024 年 8 月 5 日推送，千帆星座计划共分为三个 阶段，预计到 2025 年底实现 648 颗卫星的区域网络覆盖，到 2027 年 实现全球覆盖，并在 2030 年底完成 1.5 万颗卫星的手机直连多业务融 合服务。除"千帆星座"外，中国还有 GW 星座、Hong ...

[Table_Page] 跟踪分析|公用事业 证券研究报告 [Table_Title] 公用事业行业深度跟踪 两部委强化绿电消纳，关注辅助服务与绿证 [Table_Summary] 核心观点： ⚫ 关注:中广核电力+申能股份+华电国际电力股份+浙能电力+华润电力+ 广州发展+长江电力+福能股份 ⚫ 扩大绿证消费范围，重视辅助服务与绿证交易的电改节奏。本周两部委 印发 2024 年可再生能源消纳目标，一方面继续提升各省绿电消纳比例 （黑冀琼同比提升 7pct+），同时新设电解铝行业进行绿电消纳考核指 标，并以绿证消费量作为衡量标准。此外，本周两部委发布电力中长期 交易规则的绿电篇，促进绿电交易。进一步地，能源局也组织可再生能 源建档立卡，以促进绿证认定。我们认为上述政策均统一的指向了挖掘 绿电的环境价值，并引导消费侧提升绿电需求。我们始终强调电改的目 标是提升绿电装机和消纳，因此挖掘火电等调节电源价值、电网端加速 特高压及配电网建设、逐步提升绿电的经济性是三条核心主线。从电改 的节奏来看，我们看好未来绿证交易试点逐步落地（主线三），并且建 议更多关注辅助服务电价和煤电联动等政策逐步落地和推广（主线一）。 ⚫ 在 ...

[Table_Title] 纺织服饰行业 纺织服装与轻工行业数据周报 7.29-8.2 [Table_Summary] 核心观点： 纺织服装行业周观点。首先，上游纺织制造板块短期建议关注：二季度 受汇兑影响较小，业绩预计有望继续保持较快增长，且长期成长空间大 的辅料和箱包行业龙头公司伟星股份和开润股份。其次，上游纺织制造 板块中期建议关注：部分二季度业绩受上年同期汇兑收益扰动，但三季 度业绩有望恢复较快增长的运动鞋服代工、色织布等行业龙头公司华 利集团、健盛集团、鲁泰 A 等。预计今年业绩表现前低后高，下半年 有望加速向上的毛纺、色纺纱等行业龙头公司新澳股份、百隆东方。受 益锦纶下游需求景气度高，超高分子量聚乙烯纤维出口政策明朗化的 涉及新材料业务的行业龙头公司台华新材、南山智尚、恒辉安防。最 后，下游服装家纺板块建议关注：顺应消费两极分化趋势，业绩具备一 定韧性的高端及性价比定位龙头公司，包括海澜之家、比音勒芬、富安 娜、森马服饰、安踏体育、波司登、中国利郎等。 轻工制造行业周观点。必选消费品种经济敏感度低、具备成长空间。 （1）必选消费行业稳定、存在成长性&边际改善机会。卫生巾渠道产 品迭代推动后来居上， ...

[Table_Title] 非银金融行业 预定利率下调压降负债成本，建议关注板块估值修复 [Table_Summary] 核心观点： ⚫ 证券：证监会明确资本市场下半年工作重点，稳定及提振市场预期。 据 wind，本周沪深两市成交额日均 0.70 万亿元（环比上涨 8.35%）， 沪深两融余额 14381.97 亿元（环比下跌 0.27%）。7 月 29 日，证监 会召开学习贯彻中共二十届三中全会精神暨中工作会议，部署进一步 全面深化资本市场改革以及下半年重点工作。2024 年下半年的重点工 作将主要围绕加强市场稳定性和监管效能，增强对实体经济的支持， 推动股票发行注册制深化，并培育高质量上市公司，同时强化风险防 控和执法力度。近日，上交所制定完成《指数业务三年行动方案》， 从持续丰富服务国家战略和实体经济的指数体系、完善指数化投资生 态和逐步构建指数风险管理体系等方面，打造"上市公司—指数—指数 产品—投资者"相互促进良性循环的指数化投资市场。目前资本市场处 于波动期，该方案的出炉意在为资本市场带来更多源头活水，引导增 量资金持续流入，从而帮助稳定市场、提高市场效率，并支持资本市 场的长期健康发展。当前证券 ...

[Table_Page] 跟踪分析|保险Ⅱ 证券研究报告 [Table_Title] 保险Ⅱ行业 预定利率下调缓解利差损风险，报行合一深 化提高费差益贡献 [Table_Summary] 核心观点： 据上海证券报，8 月 2 日国家金融监督管理总局向行业下发了《关于 健全人身保险产品定价机制的通知》（以下简称通知）。 《通知》主要包括三点内容：一是建立预定利率与市场利率挂钩及动 态调整机制，参考 5 年期以上贷款市场报价利率（LPR）、5 年期定期 存款基准利率、10 年期国债到期收益率等长期利率，确定预定利率基 准值，由保险业协会发布，挂钩及动态调整机制应当报国家金融监督 管理总局，达到触发条件后，各公司按照市场化原则及时调整产品定 价，同时明确自 9 月 1 日起新备案的普通型保险产品预定利率上限调 整为 2.5%，自 10月 1日起新备案的分红险预定利率上限调整为 2.0%， 同时新备案的万能险最低保证利率上限调整为 1.5%；二是差异化设定 演示利率，各公司在演示保单利益时，应当突出产品的保险保障功能， 强调账户的利率风险共担和投资收益分成机制，帮助客户全面了解产 品特点，并且平衡好预定利率或最低保证 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to the company with a target price of 8.13 CNY per share, compared to the current price of 6.87 CNY [4]. Core Viewpoints - The company is a leading state-owned enterprise in Shanghai's infrastructure construction, showcasing significant integrated advantages across investment, design, construction, and operation. From 2018 to 2023, the company's revenue grew at a CAGR of 15%, while net profit attributable to shareholders grew at a CAGR of 8.4%. The company maintains a cash flow and overall gross margin above the industry average, with a net cash ratio consistently above 1 and a dividend payout ratio of over 30% [2][3]. - The traditional main business remains stable, with a dual approach of heavy and light asset operations to create a second growth curve. In 2023, the company signed new orders worth 95.38 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 14.11%. The operational business has seen a CAGR of 62% from 2019 to 2023. Heavy asset operations involve participation in domestic urban infrastructure construction through PPP and BOT models, while light asset operations are driven by a subsidiary that integrates resources and core technologies in underground engineering [2][3]. - The company focuses on new productivity driven by data elements, with a target for the data industry to grow at an average annual rate of over 20% by 2026. The company has established a smart management system and has won multiple digital construction and renovation projects. In 2023, the revenue from digital business reached 317 million CNY, with new contracts signed in the first half of 2024 amounting to 231 million CNY [2][3]. Summary by Sections Section 1: Focus on the Full Industry Chain of Infrastructure Construction - The company has developed into a leading integrated urban construction operator over nearly 60 years, providing comprehensive services from planning to operation. It became the first listed company in the national infrastructure sector in 1994 and has undergone significant restructuring and acquisitions to enhance its capabilities [39][41]. Section 2: Stable Performance of Traditional Construction Business - The construction business remains dominant, contributing 82.70% of total revenue in 2023, with a year-on-year growth of 18.22%. The operational business also showed strong growth, with a revenue increase of 20.85% [43][46]. The company signed a total of 95.38 billion CNY in new orders in 2023, reflecting a robust order book and a focus on major infrastructure projects [57][58]. Section 3: Focus on New Productivity and Data Elements - The data element market is expected to grow significantly, supported by government policies. The company has developed a smart management system and is actively involved in digital transformation projects, with a notable increase in revenue from digital services [2][3][39]. Section 4: Profit Forecast and Investment Recommendations - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 3.194 billion CNY, 3.517 billion CNY, and 3.879 billion CNY for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively. The report suggests a valuation based on a PE ratio of 8 times for 2024, leading to a target price of 8.13 CNY per share [2][3].