[Table_Page] 公告点评|城商行Ⅱ [Table_Title] 杭州银行（600926.SH） 业绩高增，质量优异 [Table_Summary] 核心观点： ⚫ 杭州银行披露 2024 年半年度业绩快报，我们点评如下：24H1 营收同 比增长 5.36%，增速较 24Q1 上升 1.9pct；归母净利润同比增长 20.06%，增速较 24Q1 下降 1pct，业绩维持高增长；24Q2 单季度营 收、归母净利润同比分别增长 7.33%、18.96%，营收增速单季度环比 回升 3.8pct，预计手工补息整改带来的负债成本下行，净息差企稳， 净利息收入对业绩增长提供有效支撑。 ⚫ 存贷规模高增。资产端，24H1总资产和贷款总额同比分别增长13.8%、 16.5%，分别较 24Q1 上升 0.8 pct、0.4 pct。结构上，贷款增速显著 高于总资产增速，也明显高于行业信贷增速，资产结构中信贷占比提 高，对息差也会形成结构性贡献。负债端，24H1 总负债和存款总额同 比分别增长 13.2%、13.7%，增速较 24Q1 末分别变动+0.2 pct、+2.7 pct。存款增速环比显著上升，预计主要受益于行 ...

[Table_Page] 跟踪分析|房地产 证券研究报告 [Table_Title] 房地产行业：24 年 6 月 REITs 月报 政策端 增 加 优 质 资产 供给 ， 行情 平 稳 [Table_Summary] 核心观点： 6 月基础设施政策较密集，中证 REITs 指数修订为实时更新。中央层 面在加速物流枢纽建设、风电光伏基地建设和提高高速环评方面均有 表态，提高 REITs 资产端质量。物流方面，6 月 4 日交通运输部、财 政部提出推动国家综合货运枢纽提质扩面。6 月 19 日发改委发布新一 批 20 个冷链物流基地建设名单。政策有利于物流设施供给端提质扩 面。风电光伏方面，6 月 4 日能源局提出为大型风电光伏基地等开辟纳 规"绿色通道"。6 月 20 日能源局提出加快大型风电光伏基地建设， 推进新能源网络建设。政策有望增加高质量新能源设施的供给。高速公 路方面，6 月 23 日生态环境部对公路项目提出环评要求，推动建设绿 色低碳公路。地方政策方面，6 月 18 日，河南提出鼓励采取 REITs 等 方式为文旅企业提供服务。6 月 20 日，重庆申请降低成渝地区 REITs 发行标准，探索城投 ...

Investment Rating - The mechanical equipment industry is rated as "Buy" [3] Core Insights - The National Development and Reform Commission and the Ministry of Finance issued measures to support large-scale equipment updates and consumer goods replacement, with approximately 300 billion yuan allocated for support [1][10] - The mechanical industry index fell by 1.66% in the week of July 22-26, while the Shanghai Composite Index dropped by 3.67% [1] - Excavator sales are expected to recover in July, with an estimated total of 14,000 units sold, representing a year-on-year increase of 11.06% [1][16] - The global new ship price index rose by 9.05% year-on-year, indicating a positive trend in shipbuilding profitability [1][21] Summary by Sections Macro Data Tracking - The new measures include expanding support to energy, old elevators, and key industries for energy conservation and safety upgrades, with a focus on shipbuilding, trucks, agricultural machinery, and new energy buses [10][11] - The measures aim to enhance loan subsidies and support for small and medium enterprises in equipment updates [10][11] Mid-level Data Tracking - The domestic excavator market is expected to see a year-on-year increase of nearly 17% in sales, while the export market is projected to grow by about 7% [16][17] - The oil and gas equipment sector shows signs of recovery, with an increase in active drilling rigs in North America [19] Recommendations - Key companies to focus on include Sany Heavy Industry, XCMG, and China Shipbuilding, among others, with a strong emphasis on sectors like engineering machinery and automation [2][21] - The report suggests a positive outlook for the shipbuilding industry, particularly for leading domestic companies benefiting from the current cycle [21]

基金仓位——银行投资观察 20240721 [Table_Page] 跟踪分析|银行 证券研究报告 [Table_Title] 银行行业 降息、汇率与银行行情 ——银行投资观察 20240728 [Table_Summary] 核心观点： 板块表现方面：本期（2024/7/22-2024/7/26），Wind 全 A 下跌 2.7%， 银行板块整体（中信一级行业）下跌 3.0%，排在所有行业第 19 位， 跑输万得全 A。国有大行、股份行、城商行、农商行分别下跌 0.64%、 4.68%、3.06%、2.68%。恒生综合指数下跌 2.3%，H 股银行涨幅 0.5%， 跑赢恒生综合指数，跑赢 A 股银行。 个股表现方面：Wind 数据显示 A 股银行涨幅前三为杭州银行上涨 0.69%、工商银行上涨 0.34%、交通银行上涨 0.00%，跌幅前三为民生 银行下跌 6.86%、北京银行下跌 6.04%、招商银行下跌 5.49%。H 股 银行涨幅前三为农业银行上涨 2.99%、邮储银行上涨 2.21%、工商银 行上涨 1.41%，跌幅前三为江西银行下跌 10.00%、招商银行下跌 5.61%、中国光大银行下跌 3.7 ...

[Table_Page] 行业专题研究|交通运输 2024 年 7 月 29 日 证券研究报告 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |----------------|----------------------------|----------|----------------------------|----------|----------------------------| | 分析师： [Tabl | 许可 | 分析师： | 李然 | 分析师： | 钟文海 | | e_Author] | SAC 执证号：S0260523120004 | | SAC 执证号：S0260523120009 | | SAC 执证号：S0260523120011 | | | SFC CE.no: BUY008 | | | | | | | 0755-82984511 | | 0755-82984511 | | 021-38003630 | | | xuke@gf.com.cn | | liran@gf.com.cn | | zhongwenhai@gf.com.cn | 请注意，李然 ...

[Table_Title] 招商蛇口（001979.SZ） 扣非业绩保持平稳，经营稳中有进 [Table_Summary] 核心观点： ⚫ 扣非业绩保持平稳。招商蛇口发布 24H1 业绩快报，24 年上半年实现 营收 512.73 亿元，同比-0.3%，扣非归母净利润 14.0 亿元，同比+0.4%， 业绩整体平稳。扣非归母净利润率 2.73%，同比（2.71%）基本持平， 略低于 23 年全年的 3.28%。24H1 归母净利润 14.17 亿元，同比- 34.2%，主要受 23 年同期高基数影响（23 年同期 REITs 扩募贡献投 资收益）。单季度来看，24Q2 公司营收 275.25 亿元，同比-24.5%，归 母净利润 10.85 亿元，同比-42.3%，扣非归母净利润 11.07 亿元，同 比-1.4%。 ⚫ 销售排名行业前五。根据公司经营公告，24H1 公司销售金额 1009.5 亿元，同比-39.3%，排名行业前五（克而瑞榜单），销售面积 438.7 万 方，同比-35.9%，销售均价 2.3 万/平，同比-5.4%，上半年市场存在不 确定性，公司减弱了推货节奏，如果上下半年销售 4:6，则预 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to the company with a target price of 6.53 CNY per share [25] Core Views - The company is the largest exporter of home textile products in China, with export volume ranking first in the industry for 25 consecutive years [72] - The company has been actively expanding into new material businesses, including functional coating materials and lithium battery electrolyte additives, to create a new growth curve [3][24] - The company's home textile business is expected to maintain steady growth, supported by its strong export market position and expanding domestic sales [72][99] Business Overview Home Textile Business - The company's home textile business accounts for over 80% of its revenue, with products including towels and bedding [4][5] - The company has a strong presence in international markets, accounting for approximately 60%, 40%, and 30% of China's towel exports to Japan, the US, and Europe, respectively [72][78] - Domestic sales have been growing steadily, with the company operating two major brands, "Fujia" and "Jieyu," which hold market shares of 7.4% and 6.1% in the Chinese towel market, respectively [72][112] New Material Business - The company has entered the functional coating materials market, with products applied in industries such as petrochemicals, marine engineering, and automotive [3][24] - The company has also ventured into lithium battery electrolyte additives, achieving full-process production of VC (Vinylene Carbonate) and focusing on cost reduction through recycling technologies [3][24] - The company's new material businesses are expected to contribute significantly to future growth, with the first phase of 50,000 tons of coating material capacity expected to be fully operational by 2025 [1][24] Financial Performance - From 2003 to 2023, the company's revenue and net profit grew at a CAGR of 9.3% and 7.6%, respectively [4] - In 2023, the company's revenue reached 5.34 billion CNY, with a net profit of 287 million CNY, representing a year-on-year increase of 40.8% [4][38] - The company's gross margin improved in 2023, reaching 16.5%, up by 4.0 percentage points year-on-year, driven by improved product mix and higher capacity utilization [92] Industry Analysis Home Textile Industry - The global home textile market size reached 1.122 trillion USD in 2023, with a CAGR of 0.6% from 2008 to 2023 [70] - The Chinese home textile market is expected to continue growing, driven by rising disposable income and increasing demand for high-quality products [83][86] - The company's export business is expected to remain stable, with efforts to expand into emerging markets such as Southeast Asia [79][82] New Material Industry - The global market for lithium battery electrolyte additives is growing, with VC and FEC (Fluoroethylene Carbonate) being key products [36][44] - The company's entry into the lithium battery electrolyte additives market positions it to benefit from the growing demand for electric vehicles and energy storage systems [24][36] Future Outlook - The company plans to optimize its order structure, improve cost efficiency through technological upgrades, and continue expanding into new markets [82] - The new material businesses, particularly functional coatings and lithium battery electrolyte additives, are expected to drive future growth, with significant capacity expansions planned [1][24]

[Table_Page] 行业专题研究|国防军工 2024 年 7 月 29 日 证券研究报告 [Table_Title] 国防军工行业 再看军贸景气向上趋势，看好国内外双循环下军贸发展新格局 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |----------------|----------------------------|----------|----------------------------|----------|----------------------------| | 分析师： [Tabl | 孟祥杰 | 分析师： | 邱净博 | 分析师： | 吴坤其 | | e_Author] | SAC 执证号：S0260521040002 | | SAC 执证号：S0260522120005 | | SAC 执证号：S0260522120001 | | | SFC CE.no: BRF275 | | | | SFC CE.no: BRT139 | | | 010-59136693 | | 010-59136685 | | 010-59133689 | | | me ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a current price of 77.92 CNY and a fair value of 87.01 CNY, maintaining the previous rating of "Buy" [4]. Core Views - The company is expected to achieve a net profit attributable to shareholders of 3.05-3.25 billion CNY in the first half of 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 87.06%-99.32%, exceeding market expectations [9]. - The home appliance industry remains at a high level of prosperity, with China's customs data showing a 19.1% year-on-year increase in thermos cup exports from January to May 2024, and a remarkable 36.1% growth in May alone [9]. - The company is experiencing rapid growth alongside major clients, with a projected net profit of 695 million CNY, 867 million CNY, and 1.049 billion CNY for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, reflecting growth rates of 47.3%, 24.8%, and 21.0% [10]. Financial Summary - The company reported a revenue of 1,260 million CNY in 2022, with a projected increase to 1,775 million CNY in 2023, and further growth to 2,499 million CNY in 2024, reflecting a growth rate of 41.0% [11]. - The EBITDA is expected to rise from 316 million CNY in 2023 to 800 million CNY in 2024, indicating strong operational performance [11]. - The net profit is projected to grow from 472 million CNY in 2023 to 695 million CNY in 2024, showcasing a significant increase in profitability [11].

[Table_Page] 跟踪分析|银行 证券研究报告 [Table_Title] 银行行业 今年以来各项利率调整对银行息差影响 [Table_Summary] 核心观点： ⚫ 今年以来已落地两次 LPR 下调、一次政策利率下调和新一轮存款挂牌 利率下调，同时去年两次 LPR、政策利率下调和三轮存款挂牌利率下 调也持续影响今年银行息差，本篇报告将详细测算去年和今年以来利 率政策对于各家上市银行 24 年、25 年息差的影响。 ⚫ LPR 报价下调：2024 年初至今 1 年期 LPR 累计下调 10bp、5 年期 LPR 累计下调 35bp，预计对上市银行 24 年、25 年息差负面影响分别 约为 4.0bp、7.3bp，国有大行按揭占比以及长期限贷款占比更高，因 此受到负面影响相对更大。 ⚫ 存款挂牌利率下调：2024 年 7 月 25 日，四大行再次下调存款挂牌利 率，其中，活期存款利率下调 5bp，1 年及以内定期存款挂牌利率下调 10bp，2 年及以上定期存款挂牌利率下调 20bp，预计本轮存款挂牌利 率下调对上市银行 24 年、25 年息差正贡献分别约 3.8bp、2.0bp。 ⚫ MLF 利率下调 ...