[TAblE_TitlE] 农林牧渔行业 本周猪价继续上行，行业享受高景气 [TAblE_SummAry] 核心观点： 畜禽养殖：据搜猪网，8月16日，全国瘦肉型生猪出栏均价21.51元/公 斤，环比上周上涨3.07%，同比上涨29.11%。前期产能去化效应显现， 本周猪价继续上行，自繁自养利润约682元/头。据饲料工业协会数据， 上半年猪饲料产量同比下滑7.3%，其中仔猪料同比下降13.5%。仔猪料 或侧面反映新生仔猪数量下滑较明显，按6个月生猪生长期推算，下半 年供给收缩有望延续。另一方面，仔猪以及后备母猪的价格涨幅显著落 后于商品肥猪，或侧面反映行业扩产相对谨慎，后续产能恢复速度或较 为缓慢，行业景气持续时间有望超出市场预期。当前板块估值再次回落 至相对低位，大型养殖企业重点推荐温氏股份、牧原股份，关注新希望， 中小养殖企业建议关注唐人神、天康生物、华统股份以及川渝生猪龙头 企业。白羽鸡方面，伴随消费旺季逐步到来，据Wind，本周商品代鸡苗 和毛鸡价格延续反弹，分别环比上涨0.9%、0.8%，圣农发展、益生股 份等将受益，同时建议持续关注海外禽类疫情发展情况。黄羽鸡方面， 当前种鸡存栏持续处于相对低位， ...

[Table_Page] 投资策略周报|非银金融 证券研究报告 [Table_Title] 非银金融行业 央行重视长端利率风险，利率回升期利好保险资产端 [Table_Summary] 核心观点： ⚫ 证券：监管发声透露严监管"四大动向"，科创板打新优化准入规则。 据 wind，本周沪深两市成交额日均 0.52 万亿元（环比下跌 22.84%）， 沪深两融余额 14203.60 亿元（环比下跌 0.31%）。8 月 16 日，证监 会发布了 2024 年上半年证监会行政执法情况综述。今年上半年合计 罚没款金额 85 亿余元，超过去年全年总和，无论对于上市公司、中介 机构，还是游资等相关个体的监管变得更加全面与严格。未来，预计 证监会将继续坚持"长牙带刺"的原则，保持一贯的严格监管态势，突出 从严导向、规范公正、合力共治和惩防并举。通过加强行政执法力度， 确保资本市场的高质量发展，进一步提升投资者的获得感和投资安全 感。同日，上交所发布《上海市场首次公开发行股票网下发行实施细 则》的通知。本次修订主要对投资者参与科创板网下发行业务，增加 了持有科创板市值的要求。旨在通过强化网下投资者的持股要求，推 动权责利匹配 ...

[Table_Title] 轨交设备跟踪报告（八） 第二批高级修招标放量，五级修再超预期 [Table_Summary] 核心观点： ⚫ 国铁发布年内第二批高级修招标公告，五级修累计招标 509 组。8 月 16 日，国铁采购平台发布第二批动车组高级修招标项目公告，其中五 级修 302 组，四级修 146.625 组，三级修 24 组，二次招标数量大超预 期。叠加 1 月份的首次招标，2024 年累计招标五级修 509 组，四级修 268 组，三级修 56 组。 ⚫ 高级修正式进入放量阶段，上行趋势有望延续。根据国铁采购平台，23 年五级修公开竞争性谈判采购 108 组，实际完成数量或高于该数字， 从公开招标量来看，今年五级修动车组数量同比显著大增。此前市场担 忧明后年动车组招标的持续性，但一方面，动车组高级修利润率较优， 集中放量将带来快速的利润增长，且今年部分订单有望延续至下一年； 另一方面，根据 wind，2013-2015 年的动车组采购量处于高峰期，明 后年高级修放量趋势预计仍将有望延续，轨交板块的后市场时代已经 到来。 ⚫ 重视高级修超预期带来的盈利释放，中期具备持续性+确定性。根据铁 道知识局公 ...

[Table_Page] 深度分析|汽车 证券研究报告 [Table_Title] 汽车行业 如何看待重卡行业出口市场空间 [Table_Summary] 核心观点： 中国重卡出口近年显著增长，背后是 TCO（全生命周期总成本）的国 际竞争力。据海关总署，21 年以前中国重卡出口稳定在 8 万辆左右； 21 年重卡出口同比增长 79.6%至 14.1 万辆，迎来拐点；22 年、23 年 中国重卡出口保持较高增速，分别实现 19.1 万辆、31.9 万辆，同比增 速分别为 35.4%、66.7%；24 年上半年中国重卡出口 16.9 万辆，同比 增长 8.4%。欧美日韩生产的重卡新车与中国生产的重卡新车购入成本 差异过大，而欧美日韩生产的二手重卡在可使用里程数远低于中国生 产的重卡新车的情况下，售价不低于甚至略高于中国生产的重卡新车。 中国生产的重卡 TCO（全生命周期总成本）无论相比欧美日韩生产的 新车还是二手车均具有明显优势。 海外市场空间广阔，考虑到重卡产品的生产经营工具属性决定了用户 的认知具有滚雪球效应，我们预计重卡出口增长趋势长期可持续。中 国重卡出口的目标市场主要为亚非拉地区和俄罗斯。（1）亚非拉 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to the company, with a target price of 85 HKD per share based on a reasonable valuation of 1.2x P/B [3][36]. Core Insights - The company reported a total operating and other income of 1.174 billion USD for the first half of 2024, representing an 11% year-over-year increase. Net profit reached 460 million USD, a 76% increase compared to 262 million USD in the first half of 2023. Excluding impairment impacts, core net profit grew by 10% [1][7]. - The asset side shows a stable expansion driven by financing leases and aircraft sales. The company delivered 18 new aircraft in the first half of 2024, up from 16 in the same period of 2023, with a utilization rate of 99% for owned aircraft. However, operating lease income decreased by 1.3% year-over-year, primarily due to a higher number of aircraft sold compared to those introduced into operating leases [1][8][9]. - On the liability side, the company's cost of funds (COF) continued to rise, with financial expenses increasing by 20.6% to 358 million USD in the first half of 2024. The annual interest rate rose from 3.9% in the first half of 2023 to 4.6% in the first half of 2024. A potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve could alleviate the profit pressure from liabilities [1][20]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - The company achieved a net profit of 460 million USD in the first half of 2024, a significant increase from 262 million USD in the same period of 2023. Earnings per share rose to 0.66 USD, up from 0.38 USD year-over-year [1][7]. - The total assets increased by 6% year-over-year to 24.3 billion USD, with the total book value of aircraft at 21.8 billion USD, reflecting an 8% increase compared to 20.2 billion USD in the first half of 2023 [8]. Asset Management - The company sold 15 aircraft in the first half of 2024, a substantial increase from 3 aircraft sold in the same period of 2023. The average age of sold aircraft was 10 years [1][18][19]. - Financing lease receivables reached 3 billion USD, an 87% increase compared to 870 million USD in the first half of 2023, contributing significantly to revenue growth [1][16]. Profitability Forecast - The company expects core net profit to reach 840 million USD in 2025, driven by anticipated interest rate cuts and declining costs. The projected net profit for 2025 is 840 million USD [1][36].

Investment Rating - The report rates BYD and related core industry chain companies as "Buy" [4]. Core Insights - Electric intelligent technology innovation empowers Chinese electric vehicle leaders to seize opportunities in the fourth round of global automotive industry globalization. The report highlights the historical evolution of the automotive industry and identifies the current opportunity for Chinese companies to leverage their technological advantages and vertical integration capabilities to expand globally [2][8]. - The report emphasizes the importance of market penetration potential, entry difficulty, and product advantages in assessing the adaptability of Chinese electric vehicle companies in overseas markets. It identifies the first-tier markets as the UK, India, Egypt, Australia, and Thailand, while the second-tier includes Saudi Arabia, Germany, France, Vietnam, and the Netherlands [2][20]. Summary by Sections 1. Seizing the Fourth Round of Global Automotive Industry Globalization - Electric intelligent technology innovation is restarting the globalization window for the automotive industry. Historical analysis shows that macroeconomic fluctuations, production technology changes, and consumer preferences have driven the restructuring of the global automotive landscape through four rounds [8]. - The fourth round (2020-2030) is characterized by electrification and intelligent technology, with Chinese companies leading the global electric vehicle market [8]. 2. Chinese Electric Vehicle Leaders Going Global - The report discusses the expansion of sales networks and production capacity in emerging markets, highlighting BYD's strategic focus on regions like Southeast Asia and South America. It notes that BYD aims to establish local production capacity of approximately 400,000 vehicles by 2025 [2][12]. - The report also mentions the competitive advantage of BYD's DM 5.0 technology in terms of fuel economy, which positions it favorably against European competitors as stricter emissions standards come into effect [2][12]. 3. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on global electric vehicle leader BYD and related core industry chain companies such as Hunan YN, Tianci Materials, and Xingyuan Materials for investment opportunities [2].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Tencent Holdings [18] Core Views - Tencent's Q2 2024 revenue reached 161.1 billion RMB, showing a year-over-year (YoY) increase of 8% and a quarter-over-quarter (QoQ) increase of 1%, slightly below Bloomberg's consensus estimate of 161.35 billion RMB [16][26] - Non-GAAP net profit for Q2 2024 was 57.3 billion RMB, reflecting a YoY increase of 53% and a QoQ increase of 14%, exceeding the consensus estimate by 18% [16][26] - The gaming segment showed recovery with Q2 2024 revenue of 48.5 billion RMB, up 9% YoY and 1% QoQ, surpassing the consensus estimate of 47.3 billion RMB [16][30] - Advertising revenue reached 29.9 billion RMB in Q2 2024, a YoY increase of 19% and QoQ increase of 13%, driven by growth in video and long-form content [16][32] Financial Summary - Main revenue growth rates are projected as follows: -1.0% in 2022, 9.8% in 2023, 8.2% in 2024, 8.5% in 2025, and 7.4% in 2026 [3][17] - Non-GAAP net profit is expected to grow from 1,149 million RMB in 2022 to 2,166 million RMB in 2024, reflecting a growth rate of 39.7% [3][17] - Non-GAAP EPS is projected to increase from 12.00 RMB in 2022 to 23.24 RMB in 2024 [3][17] Business Segment Performance - Gaming revenue is expected to reach 196.5 billion RMB in 2024, with a growth rate of 9% [16][57] - Social network revenue is projected to be 121.9 billion RMB in 2024, reflecting a growth of 3% [16][57] - Financial and enterprise services revenue is anticipated to grow to 212.4 billion RMB in 2024, with a growth rate of 4% [16][46] Valuation - The estimated fair value of Tencent's stock is 453.34 HKD per share, based on a sum-of-the-parts (SOTP) valuation [16][49] - The report suggests that Tencent's core business value is approximately 3.83 trillion HKD, with an additional 396.1 billion HKD from investment business [16][49]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Kingdee International (00268 HK) with a target price of HKD 11 88 per share [4][17] Core Views - Kingdee International reported H1 2024 revenue of RMB 2 87 billion, up 11 9% YoY, with a net loss attributable to shareholders of RMB -220 million, improving from RMB -280 million in H1 2023 [2][6] - Cloud transformation continues to progress, with cloud business revenue growing 17 2% YoY to RMB 2 39 billion, accounting for 83 2% of total revenue ARR reached RMB 3 15 billion, up 24 2% YoY [2][7] - Key cloud products maintained high renewal rates: 97% for Cangqiong/Xinghan, 95% for Xingkong, and 92% for Xingchen, reflecting strong competitiveness in cloud services [2][9] - R&D and sales expense ratios declined by 0 9pct and 1 9pct YoY, respectively, indicating the cloud transformation is entering a harvest phase [2] Financial Performance - Traditional software revenue declined 8 8% YoY to RMB 480 million, while cloud revenue grew 17 2% YoY to RMB 2 39 billion [7] - Gross margin improved to 63 2% in H1 2024, up from 61 9% in H1 2023 [7] - Operating cash flow was RMB -166 million, slightly better than RMB -169 million in H1 2023 [7] - Contract liabilities related to cloud subscriptions reached RMB 2 71 billion, up 28 2% YoY [7] Cloud Business Breakdown - Cangqiong/Xinghan (PaaS/SaaS for large enterprises) revenue grew 38 9% YoY to RMB 550 million, with ARR up 29% YoY and a renewal rate of 97% [12][13] - Xingkong (mid-market SaaS) revenue increased 14 3% YoY to RMB 1 05 billion, with a renewal rate of 95% and 42,000 cumulative customers [14] - Xingchen (SME cloud) revenue surged 70 8% YoY, with a renewal rate of 92% [16] Market Expansion - Kingdee secured major clients in H1 2024, including China National Petroleum Corporation, China Aviation Group, and Dongfeng Motor [12] - The company expanded its global presence, signing 121 new overseas customers in regions like Southeast Asia and Europe [14] Valuation and Forecast - The report forecasts 2024-2026 revenue of RMB 6 51 billion, RMB 7 54 billion, and RMB 8 88 billion, respectively, with YoY growth rates of 14 6%, 15 9%, and 17 8% [17] - Based on a 6x PS multiple for 2024, the target price is set at HKD 11 88 per share [17] Competitive Positioning - Kingdee is positioned as a leading domestic cloud ERP provider, with strong market share growth, particularly in the large enterprise segment [17] - The company's financial quality is better than peers, with receivables accounting for only 2 6% of total assets in H1 2024, compared to 10 4% for Yonyou Network [17]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of 17.47 CNY per share, based on a 13x PE for 2024 [3][6]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 3.431 billion CNY for the first half of 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 20.76%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 232 million CNY, up 2013.39% year-on-year. In Q2 2024, revenue was 1.705 billion CNY, a 7.71% increase year-on-year, with a net profit of 99 million CNY, up 457.68% year-on-year, aligning with expectations [1][2]. - Profitability in Q2 2024 faced temporary pressure, with a gross margin of 11.24%, up 4.49 percentage points year-on-year but down 1.72 percentage points quarter-on-quarter. The net profit margin was 5.84%, up 4.72 percentage points year-on-year but down 1.98 percentage points quarter-on-quarter. The company anticipates price pressures on terminal food cardboard and the impact of high-priced pulp, but expects to improve profitability in H2 2024 through price increases, production of self-made pulp, and enhanced cost control [1][2]. - The company's core product output and sales showed stable growth, with a production volume of 580,800 tons of mechanical paper in H1 2024, a year-on-year increase of 20.57%, and sales of 566,100 tons, up 32.82% year-on-year. The company has diversified its product offerings, supporting future growth [1][2]. - The integration of pulp and paper production continues to advance, with 15 production lines established and a total designed capacity of 2.096 million tons. The company’s self-owned pulp line in Jiangxi has started production, aiding in cost reduction and smoothing out industry cycles [1][2]. Financial Summary - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 540 million CNY, 710 million CNY, and 840 million CNY for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively. The expected revenue growth rates are 21.6% for 2024, 26.8% for 2025, and 15.3% for 2026 [2][8]. - The report indicates an EBITDA of 541 million CNY for 2023, with projections of 621 million CNY for 2024, 1.032 billion CNY for 2025, and 1.516 billion CNY for 2026 [2][8].

Xml [Table_Page] 跟踪分析|传媒 证券研究报告 [Table_Title] 传媒行业：AI 行业周报 谷歌发布智能语音助手 Gemini Live，昆仑万维推出 AI 音乐平台 [Table_Summary] 核心观点： ⚫ 国内 AI 动态跟踪：根据 SimilarWeb，上周（2024/8/5 - 2024/8/11） 国内主要 AI 大模型产品网页端访问量分别为：kimi 504.58 万次，环比 上升 4.02%；文心一言 410.22 万次，环比上升 1.85%；通义千问 178.18 万次，环比下降 7.06%；豆包 232.27 万次，环比上升 17.50%； 智谱清言 73.82 万次，环比下降 9.25%；讯飞星火 54.31 万次，环 比下降 1.13%；天工 AI 48.34 万次，环比下降 0.13%；腾讯元宝 21.75 万次，环比上升 7.98%。App 下载量看，根据七麦数据，kimi 8.30 万 次，环比下降 14.12%；文心一言 10.33 万次，环比下降 1.66%；通 义千问 7.58 万次，环比下降 36.69%；豆包 114.35 万次，环比上升 ...