[Table_Page] 跟踪分析|公用事业 证券研究报告 [Table_Title] 公用事业行业深度跟踪 两部委强化绿电消纳，关注辅助服务与绿证 [Table_Summary] 核心观点： ⚫ 关注:中广核电力+申能股份+华电国际电力股份+浙能电力+华润电力+ 广州发展+长江电力+福能股份 ⚫ 扩大绿证消费范围，重视辅助服务与绿证交易的电改节奏。本周两部委 印发 2024 年可再生能源消纳目标，一方面继续提升各省绿电消纳比例 （黑冀琼同比提升 7pct+），同时新设电解铝行业进行绿电消纳考核指 标，并以绿证消费量作为衡量标准。此外，本周两部委发布电力中长期 交易规则的绿电篇，促进绿电交易。进一步地，能源局也组织可再生能 源建档立卡，以促进绿证认定。我们认为上述政策均统一的指向了挖掘 绿电的环境价值，并引导消费侧提升绿电需求。我们始终强调电改的目 标是提升绿电装机和消纳，因此挖掘火电等调节电源价值、电网端加速 特高压及配电网建设、逐步提升绿电的经济性是三条核心主线。从电改 的节奏来看，我们看好未来绿证交易试点逐步落地（主线三），并且建 议更多关注辅助服务电价和煤电联动等政策逐步落地和推广（主线一）。 ⚫ 在 ...

[Table_Title] 纺织服饰行业 纺织服装与轻工行业数据周报 7.29-8.2 [Table_Summary] 核心观点： 纺织服装行业周观点。首先，上游纺织制造板块短期建议关注：二季度 受汇兑影响较小，业绩预计有望继续保持较快增长，且长期成长空间大 的辅料和箱包行业龙头公司伟星股份和开润股份。其次，上游纺织制造 板块中期建议关注：部分二季度业绩受上年同期汇兑收益扰动，但三季 度业绩有望恢复较快增长的运动鞋服代工、色织布等行业龙头公司华 利集团、健盛集团、鲁泰 A 等。预计今年业绩表现前低后高，下半年 有望加速向上的毛纺、色纺纱等行业龙头公司新澳股份、百隆东方。受 益锦纶下游需求景气度高，超高分子量聚乙烯纤维出口政策明朗化的 涉及新材料业务的行业龙头公司台华新材、南山智尚、恒辉安防。最 后，下游服装家纺板块建议关注：顺应消费两极分化趋势，业绩具备一 定韧性的高端及性价比定位龙头公司，包括海澜之家、比音勒芬、富安 娜、森马服饰、安踏体育、波司登、中国利郎等。 轻工制造行业周观点。必选消费品种经济敏感度低、具备成长空间。 （1）必选消费行业稳定、存在成长性&边际改善机会。卫生巾渠道产 品迭代推动后来居上， ...

[Table_Title] 非银金融行业 预定利率下调压降负债成本，建议关注板块估值修复 [Table_Summary] 核心观点： ⚫ 证券：证监会明确资本市场下半年工作重点，稳定及提振市场预期。 据 wind，本周沪深两市成交额日均 0.70 万亿元（环比上涨 8.35%）， 沪深两融余额 14381.97 亿元（环比下跌 0.27%）。7 月 29 日，证监 会召开学习贯彻中共二十届三中全会精神暨中工作会议，部署进一步 全面深化资本市场改革以及下半年重点工作。2024 年下半年的重点工 作将主要围绕加强市场稳定性和监管效能，增强对实体经济的支持， 推动股票发行注册制深化，并培育高质量上市公司，同时强化风险防 控和执法力度。近日，上交所制定完成《指数业务三年行动方案》， 从持续丰富服务国家战略和实体经济的指数体系、完善指数化投资生 态和逐步构建指数风险管理体系等方面，打造"上市公司—指数—指数 产品—投资者"相互促进良性循环的指数化投资市场。目前资本市场处 于波动期，该方案的出炉意在为资本市场带来更多源头活水，引导增 量资金持续流入，从而帮助稳定市场、提高市场效率，并支持资本市 场的长期健康发展。当前证券 ...

[Table_Page] 跟踪分析|保险Ⅱ 证券研究报告 [Table_Title] 保险Ⅱ行业 预定利率下调缓解利差损风险，报行合一深 化提高费差益贡献 [Table_Summary] 核心观点： 据上海证券报，8 月 2 日国家金融监督管理总局向行业下发了《关于 健全人身保险产品定价机制的通知》（以下简称通知）。 《通知》主要包括三点内容：一是建立预定利率与市场利率挂钩及动 态调整机制，参考 5 年期以上贷款市场报价利率（LPR）、5 年期定期 存款基准利率、10 年期国债到期收益率等长期利率，确定预定利率基 准值，由保险业协会发布，挂钩及动态调整机制应当报国家金融监督 管理总局，达到触发条件后，各公司按照市场化原则及时调整产品定 价，同时明确自 9 月 1 日起新备案的普通型保险产品预定利率上限调 整为 2.5%，自 10月 1日起新备案的分红险预定利率上限调整为 2.0%， 同时新备案的万能险最低保证利率上限调整为 1.5%；二是差异化设定 演示利率，各公司在演示保单利益时，应当突出产品的保险保障功能， 强调账户的利率风险共担和投资收益分成机制，帮助客户全面了解产 品特点，并且平衡好预定利率或最低保证 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to the company with a target price of 8.13 CNY per share, compared to the current price of 6.87 CNY [4]. Core Viewpoints - The company is a leading state-owned enterprise in Shanghai's infrastructure construction, showcasing significant integrated advantages across investment, design, construction, and operation. From 2018 to 2023, the company's revenue grew at a CAGR of 15%, while net profit attributable to shareholders grew at a CAGR of 8.4%. The company maintains a cash flow and overall gross margin above the industry average, with a net cash ratio consistently above 1 and a dividend payout ratio of over 30% [2][3]. - The traditional main business remains stable, with a dual approach of heavy and light asset operations to create a second growth curve. In 2023, the company signed new orders worth 95.38 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 14.11%. The operational business has seen a CAGR of 62% from 2019 to 2023. Heavy asset operations involve participation in domestic urban infrastructure construction through PPP and BOT models, while light asset operations are driven by a subsidiary that integrates resources and core technologies in underground engineering [2][3]. - The company focuses on new productivity driven by data elements, with a target for the data industry to grow at an average annual rate of over 20% by 2026. The company has established a smart management system and has won multiple digital construction and renovation projects. In 2023, the revenue from digital business reached 317 million CNY, with new contracts signed in the first half of 2024 amounting to 231 million CNY [2][3]. Summary by Sections Section 1: Focus on the Full Industry Chain of Infrastructure Construction - The company has developed into a leading integrated urban construction operator over nearly 60 years, providing comprehensive services from planning to operation. It became the first listed company in the national infrastructure sector in 1994 and has undergone significant restructuring and acquisitions to enhance its capabilities [39][41]. Section 2: Stable Performance of Traditional Construction Business - The construction business remains dominant, contributing 82.70% of total revenue in 2023, with a year-on-year growth of 18.22%. The operational business also showed strong growth, with a revenue increase of 20.85% [43][46]. The company signed a total of 95.38 billion CNY in new orders in 2023, reflecting a robust order book and a focus on major infrastructure projects [57][58]. Section 3: Focus on New Productivity and Data Elements - The data element market is expected to grow significantly, supported by government policies. The company has developed a smart management system and is actively involved in digital transformation projects, with a notable increase in revenue from digital services [2][3][39]. Section 4: Profit Forecast and Investment Recommendations - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 3.194 billion CNY, 3.517 billion CNY, and 3.879 billion CNY for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively. The report suggests a valuation based on a PE ratio of 8 times for 2024, leading to a target price of 8.13 CNY per share [2][3].

[Table_Page] 跟踪分析|银行 证券研究报告 [Table_Title] 2024 年 7 月社融前瞻 预计社融增速 8.2% [Table_Summary] 核心观点： ⚫ 我们预计 7 月人民币贷款增 0.35 万亿元，在去年 7 月低基数基础上同比 持平；社融增量 0.93 万亿元，同比多增 0.39 万亿元。预计 7 月末社融 存量 395.8 万亿元，同比增速 8.2%，环比上行 0.1 个百分点。 ⚫ 信贷方面：6 月人民币贷款同比少增约 3 成，手工补息整改和银行 GDP 核算形成的信贷挤水份压力延续。7 月票据利率延续 6 月低位水平，月末 触及 0 利率，显示实体信贷需求依旧疲弱。另外 7 月 PSL 继续净偿还， 显示政策类信贷力度也有限。预计 7 月全口径人民币贷款增量约 0.35 万 亿元，同比持平。非社融口径人民币方面，由于实体信贷需求偏弱，预计 7 月维持高增量，预计单月净增 0.3 万亿元，同比持平。预计 7 月社融口 径人民币贷款增 0.05 万亿元，同比基本持平。 ⚫ 债券方面：7 月政府债环比略有回落，预计 7 月政府债净融资 0.7 万亿 元，同比多增 0.29 ...

Xml [Table_Page] 投资策略周报|传媒 [Table_Title] 互联网传媒行业 8 月进口游戏版号发布，Meta 上调 24 年 AI 投入 [Table_Summary] 核心观点： ⚫ 本周（7月29日-8月2日）中信传媒板块上涨2.15%，跑赢上证综指1.65 个百分点。本周（7月29日-8月2日）A股传媒板块行情小幅反弹，主 要由于前期板块估值处于低位，近期AI相关产业催化较多：OpenAI开 始测试长输出版 GPT-4o；Meta本周发布FY24Q2财报，上调24年AI 投入预期，并在本周发布AI角色生成工具AI Studio、图片与视频编辑 工具SAM2，由此带来板块整体提振。展望后市，我们建议把握两条主 线：一是优选业绩较好的板块和优质公司，业绩落地验证基本面后， 有望支撑估值的稳步抬升，重点可关注互联网、游戏以及长视频、营 销等板块。二是持续跟踪板块内AI应用的边际变化，有望提升市场对 AI应用的落地预期。建议关注有AI产品或技术布局、正在持续推进落 地的公司。另外，也需要重点关注部分账上现金充足、股息率具备吸 引力、且积极拓展新业务或有新业务布局预期的公司。 ⚫ 投资建议： ...

[Table_Page] 跟踪分析|银行 证券研究报告 [Table_Title] 银行资负跟踪 20240804 NCD 期限拉长，政府债净融资上量 [Table_Summary] 核心观点： ⚫ 本期：2024/7/29~8/4，上期：2024/7/22~7/28，下期：2024/8/5~8/11。 ⚫ 央行动态：据 Wind 数据（下同），本期央行公开市场共开展 7,811 亿元 7 天逆回购操作，利率 1.70%，逆回购到期 9,848 亿元，整体实现净回 笼 2,037 亿元。下期央行公开市场将有 7,811 亿元逆回购到期。本期逆 回购余额月末继续回升，跨月后有所回落，但绝对量上依旧高于季节性 水平，考虑到跨月后资金利率明显回落，银行间流动性中性偏宽，预计 下期逆回购余额继续回落。 ⚫ 政府债融资：本期政府债净缴款 2,037.82 亿元，预计下期政府债净缴款 约 3,804.93 亿元，较上周回升。本期政治局会议重提"加强逆周期调节"， 提到"宏观政策要持续用力、更加给力"、"加快专项债发行使用进度" 等，三中全会后，政策利率和存款利率已集中下调，显示货币政策逆周 期加码，年内财政预算仍有空间， ...

[Table_Page] 行业专题研究|软件与服务 2024 年 8 月 5 日 证券研究报告 [Table_Title] 【广发 TMT 产业研究】美股科技股观察 | 24Q2 业绩跟踪 亚马逊电商增速放缓，AWS 再提速，盈利提升，24 年资本支出将大幅增长 [Tabl 分析师： 杨琳琳 [Table_Summary] 核心观点：（备注：本文如无特别说明，数据来源均为公司财报、Earnings Call 记录及演示材料、官网等官方公开信息） | --- | --- | |-----------|----------------------------| | e_Author] | SAC 执证号：S0260514050004 | | | SFC CE.no: BNC117 | | | 0755-23480370 | | | yll@gf.com.cn | ⚫ 24Q2 收入接近指引上限，盈利能力继续提升，资本开支加大；下季度指引收入增速趋缓，预计 24 年资本开 支将同比大幅攀升。亚马逊发布 24Q2 财报，24Q2 实现营收 1,480 亿美元，同比+10.1%，接近指引上限； 净利润同比+99.8%， ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 29.10 CNY per share [3]. Core Insights - The privatization plan for Yuefeng is expected to significantly increase capacity and cash flow, potentially doubling them. The acquisition price is approximately 40.2 billion CNY, with additional bank loans of up to 61 billion CNY, totaling around 111 billion HKD for 92.77% of Yuefeng's shares. Post-transaction, the company is projected to hold 52% of Yuefeng, leading to an estimated profit increase of 310 million CNY, representing a 22% elasticity based on the 2023 net profit [1][11]. - The company has a history of steady growth, with past acquisitions leading to a market cap exceeding 18 billion CNY. From 2015 to 2021, the company maintained a growth rate of around 30%, aligning with a PE ratio of 20x to 25x. Recent performance has stabilized, with improved cash flow and new growth expectations from the acquisition [1]. - The integration of solid waste assets is becoming increasingly valuable, with the company and Yuefeng being key players in Guangdong's solid waste sector. Their overlapping project areas allow for operational synergies, enhancing their competitive edge and potential for dividend increases [1]. - Profit forecasts for the company from 2024 to 2026 are projected at 1.685 billion CNY, 1.720 billion CNY, and 1.825 billion CNY, respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 10.15, 9.95, and 9.38 [2]. Summary by Sections Section 1: Privatization of Yuefeng - The company announced a privatization plan for Yuefeng, with a total transaction value of approximately 110.9 to 111.0 billion HKD. The plan involves acquiring 92.8% of Yuefeng's shares, with the company expected to hold 52% post-transaction [11][12]. Section 2: Yuefeng's Financial Stability - Yuefeng has a total operational capacity of 43,700 tons per day, with half located in Guangdong. The company reported a net profit of 900 million CNY in 2023, with a significant portion of its revenue coming from waste-to-energy projects [17][20]. Section 3: Capacity and Profitability Projections - The company anticipates a near doubling of capacity and cash flow post-acquisition, with a projected stable profit of 1.8 billion CNY by 2026 if the privatization is successful. The current market PE for the solid waste industry averages 13x, indicating a potential upside of 39% to 62% for the company's market valuation [1][2]. Section 4: Financial Forecasts - Revenue forecasts for the company are set at 12.875 billion CNY for 2022, with a slight decline to 12.541 billion CNY in 2023, followed by a recovery to 13.153 billion CNY in 2024. The expected growth rates for the following years are 4.9%, 3.4%, and 4.1% [2].