证券研究报告 医药生物行业 2024 年中期策略 把握优质创新资产底部布局机会 核心观点: ⚫ 拐点时刻,坚定信心。我国正面临着人口老龄化的挑战,催生出更大的 医疗需求,预计国内医疗卫生支出将持续增加。在政策边际改善的环境 下,国内医药企业创新转型升级快速推进,中国创新在全球创新领域的 贡献度稳步提升,创新价值有望在国内、欧美等全球市场逐步兑现,当 下时点国内医药产业已经迈入新的发展阶段。 ⚫ 制药和 Biotech:国内药企将进入 PD-1 抗体之后的新一轮创新产品周 期,一批拥有临床价值的优质创新药管线陆续商业化落地,持续改善国 内制药行业产品结构,我们预计这种改善在未来几年有加速趋势。新一 轮产品周期的核心驱动是创新升级,其特点是多元化和国际化的,且有 望持续更长时间,国内制药企业也将随之进入新一轮成长阶段。 ⚫ 医疗器械:在创新与制造工艺提升的推动下,国产高性能医疗器械媲美 甚至超越进口器械,海外市场有望打开新增长曲线。核心企业研发投入 持续迸发,高研发投入下重点关注高壁垒大空间赛道。 ⚫ 医疗服务与消费医疗:消费类业务受宏观环境影响呈弱复苏;刚性医 疗需求持续增加,民营医院为医疗体系重要补充。眼科关 ...

Xml 传媒行业:AI 行业周报 Claude 访问量增长,钉钉打造开放 AI 生态 核心观点: ⚫ 国内 AI 动态跟踪:kimi 访问量领先,钉钉打造开放 AI 生态。根据 SimilarWeb,上周(6 月 17 日- 6 月 23 日)国内主要 AI 大模型产品 网页端访问量分别为:kimi 556.46 万次,环比增长 6.69%;文心一言 401.05 万次,环比提升 0.74%;通义千问 200.52 万次,环比提升 2.76%;豆包 154.37 万次,环比下降 0.73%;智谱清言 86.00 万次, 环比下降 6.23%;讯飞星火 70.70 万次,环比提升 19.53%;天工 AI 63.99 万次,环比下降 13.16%;腾讯元宝 13.26 万次,环比下降 0.20%。 App iPhone 端下载量看,根据七麦数据,文心一言 18.89 万次,环比 上升 3.65%;kimi 10.49 万次,环比上升 6.52%;通义千问 7.43 万次, 环比上升 18.29%;讯飞星火 6.95 万次,环比上升 6.36%;天工 AI 4.82 万次,环比上升 0.91%;智谱清言 3.36 ...

Xml 国防军工行业 板块稳增向好趋势不变,重视航空出海机遇 核心观点: 空客波音面临持续供应链问题,航空工业集团提出加快打造民机高质 量发展新平台。据空客官网 6 月 24 日报道,空客将今年预计交付量 从之前宣布的 800 架降至 770 架左右,同时将 A320 月产 75 架的增 产计划由 2026 年推迟到 2027 年。空客表示,持续的供应链问题正 在导致发动机、飞机结构部件和内部客舱设备的短缺,新发动机的供 应最近成为空客制造过程中的瓶颈。据 Flight Global 消息,24 日彭 博社报道,波音已提出收购飞机零部件制造商 Spirit AeroSystems, 以稳定最畅销飞机 737 供应链的关键部分。据中航重机公众号,6 月 20 日航空工业集团党组书记、董事长周新民在集团总部会见贵州省 委常委、常务副省长吴强一行,指出中国航空将加快打造民机高质量 发展新平台,合力推进民用航空基础结构产业基地建设。 持续看好第二曲线增量,大飞机、低空经济、商业航天等进展持续更 新。6 月 24 日,据"观察者网"公众号,欧洲航空安全局(EASA) 代表团将于 7 月初抵达中国正式开启 C919 认证 ...

证券研究报告 农林牧渔行业 2024 年中期策略 景气回升,布局龙头 核心观点: 生猪养殖:告别供给过剩期,开启新一轮上行周期。前期产能去化效应 正在逐步显现,生猪存栏水平明显下滑,2 季度猪价触底回升。当前行 业重回盈利区间,预计 3 季度行业整体供给将继续下滑,随着后续需 求季节性回暖,看好 3 季度猪价超预期表现。受益前期原材料价格下 行以及防疫效率提升,出栏成本进入快速下降通道。本轮上行期,行业 有望受益猪价上行与成本下行之间"剪刀差"扩大,整体盈利水平有望 超出市场预期。养殖企业资本开支趋于保守,未来母猪产能增速或相对 缓慢。当前板块估值尚处于相对低位,大型养殖企业重点推荐温氏股 份、牧原股份,关注新希望,中小养殖企业重点关注唐人神、天康生物、 华统股份以及川渝生猪龙头企业。 肉禽养殖:白羽鸡产业链磨底待涨,黄羽鸡养殖回归盈利。白羽鸡方 面,当前在产父母代存栏量处于相对高位,种鸡存栏量在持续调整过程 中,下半年产业链或受益于存栏调整以及猪价上行带动,圣农发展、益 生股份等将受益。黄羽鸡方面,随着前期种鸡存栏下降效应逐步体现以 及猪价上行影响,2 季度黄鸡价格明显上涨,当前行业重新回到较好盈 利状态, ...

证券研究报告 计算机行业 2024 年中期策略 下半年仍以结构性机会为主,基本面驱动是基础 核心观点: 受宏观经济及政策影响,2024 年 1 月 1 日至 6 月 24 日收盘,计算机 行业(中信)累计下跌 16.64%,在 30 个行业中排名倒数第四。 1.行业处于相对底部区域,对基本面和各种业绩兑现更为看重。2. 当 前位置行业估值相当于 24 年 1 月初的水平,但当前中信计算机指数 较 2 月初最低点高出约 15.4%。3. 当前阶段无论 AI 算力还是工业软 件,以及智能驾驶和金融 IT,整体业绩验证或产业变化趋势大都会发 生在 Q3 后。4. Q3 以后,前述相关领域均有机会通过中报或产业下 游需求的变化或产品认可的变化获得催化剂。 我们判断下半年行业基本面持续改善,随着部分行业供应链的恢复, Q3 开始,市场化需求韧性持续,具有一定的行业比较优势,AI 产业 发展亦会助力行业发展的可持续性和空间拓展。 细分领域:①人工智能:AI 大模型技术迭代,应用落地,驱动推理侧 算力和 AI 基础软件的需求增长。②算力基础设施:算力向智能化和 集群化方向发展,算力基础设施迭代升级。华为算力生态快速拓展, ...

证券研究报告 汽车行业 2024 年中期策略 双轮驱动下的需求依然值得期待 核心观点: 乘用车:"缓释剂"式政策呵护+海外双轮驱动下的需求仍然值得期待。 1.从总量角度考虑,政策虽是"缓释剂",但依然是有效的。以旧换新 政策落地后的 5 月乘用车终端需求有所改善,维持 24 年国内乘用车终 端销量同比增速区间为 0-5%的判断,在行业库存变化同比持平的前提 下,因出口增长继续拉动下预计批发端同比增速区间为 3-9%。 2.从需 求节奏来看,24 年 6 月起乘用车交强险销量同比增速预计呈现"前低 后高"的需求表现,其中 9 月交强险销量有望开始实现连续正增长。 3.结构角度看,中国品牌向上(量和价)将继续呈现提升趋势,重点关注 "PHEV 加速平替合资燃油车+高端 SUV"竞品组合的表现;考虑到中 国品牌海外终端市占率提升斜率依然表现较好以及海外库存整体可 控,维持 24 年中国乘用车出口销量同比增速为 15-30%的判断。 商用车:24 年继续温和复苏,未来几年或将持续释放弹性。国内宏观 经济总量稳中有升,内需的更新率均值回归就有明显的销量弹性,规范 化打击超载仍有超额弹性;产品具备 TCO 总成本领先优势 ...

2024 年 6 月 27 日 证券研究报告 家用电器行业 | | | | 中东非专题:家电出海潜力市场,成长空间广阔 | | |-----------------|-----------------------------|---------|--------------------------------------------|----| | 分析师: [Tabl | 曾婵 | 分析师: | 陈尧 | | | e_Author] | SAC 执证号: S0260517050002 | | SAC 执证号: S0260524010003 | | | | SFC CE.no: BNV293 | | | | | | 0755-82771936 021-38003786 | | | | | | zengchan@gf.com.cn | | shchenyao@gf.com.cn | | | | | | | | 核心观点: ⚫ 中东非人口超 17 亿,大部分国家仍维持超 2%的年增长态势,将长期享受较大的人口红利。中东经济相对领先, 城市化水平高;非洲发展落后,城镇化率较高,但基础设施水平落后,住房改善需求有待释 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of 1.88 CNY per share, compared to the current price of 1.16 CNY per share [4]. Core Views - The company's Q2 performance shows a significant quarter-on-quarter increase, with a planned share buyback of 150-300 million CNY, reflecting confidence in long-term development. The expected net profit for H1 2024 is projected to be between 1.16-1.26 billion CNY, representing a year-on-year increase of 14.54%-24.41% [2]. - The coal-electricity integration ensures stable operations, with the Haizetang project progressing rapidly. The company anticipates coal production and sales to exceed 12 million tons in 2024, with a cost reduction of over 5% [2]. - The company is establishing an integrated all-vanadium flow battery energy storage industry chain, with production expected to gradually commence in Q4 2024 [2]. - The company's financing capacity is recovering, with a significant reduction in debt scale. As of the end of 2023, interest-bearing debt was 41.1 billion CNY, down from pre-restructuring levels [2]. - Earnings forecasts suggest EPS of 0.12/0.13/0.14 CNY per share for 2024-2026, with potential for increased profitability in thermal power following coal self-sufficiency [2]. Financial Summary - Revenue for 2022 was 35.56 billion CNY, with a projected decrease of 15.3% in 2023, followed by a modest recovery in 2024 [3]. - EBITDA is expected to grow from 8.1 billion CNY in 2023 to 9.97 billion CNY by 2026 [3]. - The net profit for 2023 is projected at 2.27 billion CNY, with a year-on-year growth of 18.7% [3]. - The company’s ROE is expected to improve from 4.9% in 2023 to 5.8% in 2026 [3].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Tencent Holdings with a target price of HKD 507.55 per share [56][76] Core Views - Tencent's strategy focuses on high-quality growth, with key investments in overseas gaming, short video, and enterprise services since 2021 [89] - The company's core businesses remain stable, while new growth drivers such as video accounts and mini-games are emerging, contributing to mid-term performance growth [89] - Long-term growth is expected from generative AI investments, which are exploring new user scenarios and technological advancements [89] Financial Projections - Revenue is projected to reach RMB 658.9 billion in 2024 and RMB 726.1 billion in 2025, representing year-on-year growth of 8% and 10%, respectively [4][76] - Adjusted net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to grow by 29% in 2024 and 14% in 2025, reaching RMB 203 billion and RMB 231.2 billion, respectively [32][76] - Gross margin is forecasted to improve to 52.8% in 2024 and 53.2% in 2025, driven by higher-quality business streams [32] Business Segments Gaming - Domestic gaming revenue reached RMB 126.7 billion in 2023, up 2% YoY, while overseas gaming revenue grew 14% YoY to RMB 53.2 billion [74] - Tencent's overseas gaming investments have been a key focus since 2021, with contributions to overall gaming revenue steadily increasing [74] - The company plans to launch new games, such as "Dungeon & Fighter: Origin," which is expected to drive growth in 2024 [88] Financial Technology - WeChat Pay's revenue growth is closely tied to the overall mobile payment market, which saw transaction volume increase by 16.81% YoY to 1.851 trillion transactions in 2023 [2] - Non-payment businesses, such as credit and wealth management services, have significant growth potential, with WeBank playing a key role in expanding these services [8][10][119] Advertising - Advertising revenue is expected to grow by 19% in 2024 and 16% in 2025, driven by inventory expansion on WeChat, video accounts, and mini-games [40] - Video accounts' total viewing time grew by 100% YoY in 2023, with further growth of 80% YoY in Q1 2024, providing strong monetization opportunities [17] Enterprise Services - Tencent's enterprise services are benefiting from the growth of video accounts and mini-programs, with live-streaming e-commerce and technical service fees contributing to revenue [38] - The company is also investing in generative AI, which is expected to enhance SaaS tool efficiency and create new revenue streams in the medium to long term [152] Valuation - Using the SOTP valuation method, Tencent's core businesses are valued at HKD 4.26 trillion, with gaming and advertising contributing HKD 1.56 trillion and HKD 1.23 trillion, respectively [83] - The company's secondary market investments are valued at HKD 494.7 billion, contributing HKD 52.84 per share to the total valuation [135] Strategic Investments - Tencent has made significant investments in overseas gaming companies, including Riot Games, Supercell, and Epic Games, which have contributed to its global gaming presence [108][110] - The company is also investing in generative AI, with its Hunyuan large model and Tencent Yuanbao AI assistant launched in 2023 and 2024, respectively [132]

证券研究报告 环保行业 设备更新贴息落地,国产仪器景气度有望提升 核心观点: ⚫ 设备更新贴息贷款政策落地,今年 3 月至年底符合条件的设备采购贷 款合同,中央财政贴息 1pct。近日财政部等 4 部门印发《关于实施设 备更新贷款财政贴息政策的通知》,(1)贴息标准:银行向经营主体发 放的贷款符合再贷款报销条件的,中央财政对经营主体的银行贷款本 金贴息 1 个百分点,贴息期限不超过 2 年。(2)期限条件:在《国务 院关于印发〈推动大规模设备更新和消费品以旧换新行动方案〉的通 知》印发之日(2024/3/7)至 2024/12/31 期间,经营主体签订贷款合 同、设备购置或更新改造服务采购合同,且相关贷款资金发放至经营主 体并划付供应商账户的,可享受贴息政策。此外,结合中国人民银行设 备更新相关再贷款额度使用情况,可视情延长政策实施期限。根据央 行,截止到 24Q1,设备更新改造专向再贷款 2000 亿额度的剩余余额 1567 亿元,科技创新再贷款 4000 亿额度的剩余余额 1548 亿,且 2024 年 4 月央行新增设立科技创新和技术改造再贷款 ,额度 5000 亿元, 利率 1.75%,对原有科技创新 ...