投资策略报告|食品饮料 证券研究报告 食品饮料行业 2024 年中期策略 站在新周期的起点 2024 上半年回顾:短期动销承压,行业开始去库存。(1)股价复盘: 上半年白酒跑输沪深 300,大众品绩优个股和高股息跑赢。(2)估值复 盘:食品饮料板块估值逼近二十年最低位。(3)持仓复盘:大众品持仓 十年新低,白酒机构分化明显。本文从周期的角度分析经济转暖背景下 白酒与大众品后续走势,从现金流角度分析找寻长周期低估白马股。 白酒:茅台泡沫去化,业绩下调股价或见底。(1)茅台价格下跌,行业 价格泡沫进一步去化。(2)高端酒消费场景与经济同步性较强,短期来 看茅台价格与 PPI 背离但行业产量数据与 PPI 同向转暖,长周期茅台 价格仍将与 PPI 同步。(3)春节现金回款走弱,全年盈利预测略有调 整。经济面回暖大背景下,高端酒泡沫去化有望开启新一轮发展周期。 大众品:关注未来 CPI 上行期的配置机会。(1)基本面复盘:CPI 上 行期营收提速是大概率事件,盈利兑现分化,产品迭代和竞争格局是影 响利润表现的重要因素。(2)若 CPI 再次加速上行,推荐关注饮料、 调味品、啤酒和速冻板块。(3)从股价表现看,CPI ...

证券研究报告 证券行业 2024 年中期策略 顺应新监管环境,迎接供给侧改革 核心观点: ⚫ 2024H1 证券板块滞涨于上证指数。由于部分业务承压、监管环境趋 严,证券行业遭遇业绩和估值双重压力,截至 6 月 20 日,券商指数 (884780.WI)较年初下跌 9%,跑输上证及沪深 300 指数。 ⚫ 业务仍有一定压力,但呈边际缓和态势。(1)一级市场业务触及冰点, 前 5 个月 IPO/再融资/债券承销规模分别-84%/-76%/-1%,但 6 月以来 三大交易所 IPO 业务逐渐恢复,科创板改革八项措施已经落地。(2) 二级权益市场活跃度回暖后有所震荡,债券市场则表现超预期,有望带 来业绩增量。(3)两市日均成交额 4 月开始震荡下行,6 月份缩量显 著,预计后续有望成交回暖。(4)受 ETF 及债基提速增长,公募基金 规模再创新高,前 5 个月新发基金+60%,不过偏股型和混合型基金仍 面临较大压力。(5)公募基金综合费改三步走方案已基本完成前两步, 年内预计将出台降低市场费用方案,靴子落地,轻装再出发。(6)监管 密集处罚的窗口期或已结束,对业务和估值的冲击有所减缓。 ⚫ 新国九条推动资本市场可投 ...

证券研究报告 金属及金属新材料行业 黄金仍将震荡上行 | 行业评级 | 买入 | |----------------|------------| | 前次评级 | 买入 | | 报告日期 | 2024-06-23 | 核心观点: 基本金属:海外需求仍改善,预计基本金属价格震荡。美国通胀有所缓 和,PMI 超预期,海外需求改善趋势不变,内需受高价、淡季影响较平 稳,供给端铜矿、阴极铜供给均仍紧张,预计下周基本金属价格震荡, 底部支撑较强,股票配置价值逐步提升。建议关注:洛阳钼业(A+H)、 西部矿业、金诚信、中国铝业(A+H)、云铝股份、天山铝业等。 钢铁:供需改善,钢价及主要成本下行,盈利率弱修复。供给端,高炉 开工环比下降,钢厂盈利率弱修复,铁水供给约束明显。需求端,线螺 采购环比回升。成本端,预计低盈利率继续压制原料采购需求。价利方 面,供需格局短期改善,购销差价预期偏弱,供给约束预期提升,预计 短期钢价震荡为主。建议关注:宝钢股份、华菱钢铁、久立特材、抚顺 特钢等。 贵金属:上行趋势不变,板块配置价值仍较高。现阶段黄金定价仍核心 关注美元购买力强弱。本周公布的美国 6 月制造业、服务业 PMI 均超 预 ...

建筑材料行业 地产增速继续低位徘徊,全国水泥均价同比转正 核心观点: 4 月底以来地产"去库存"和"稳需求"新政持续发布,一定程度上改 善地产预期,二手房成交环比改善、新房成交降幅环比收窄,专项债发 行加速,且优质龙头企业仍表现出较强的经营韧性,如二手房和存量房 翻新需求支撑下零售建材韧性强、水泥和玻璃龙头持续保持盈利领先 优势。建议继续关注政策催化下建材估值修复机会,同时关注底部涨价 的水泥、玻纤和部分结构性景气赛道(出海、药玻等)。 消费建材:地产仍在寻底,龙头公司经营韧性强。消费建材长期需求稳 定性好(受益存量房需求)、行业集中度持续提升、竞争格局好的优质 细分龙头中长期成长空间仍然很大。2024 年地产仍在寻底,新开工面 积预计回落至中期较低水平,地产政策转变有望先带来销售面积好转; 核心龙头公司盈利领先地产行业实现有韧性的复苏。看好三棵树、兔宝 宝、北新建材、伟星新材、中国联塑、东鹏控股、东方雨虹,关注坚朗 五金、箭牌家居、蒙娜丽莎、科顺股份、志特新材、王力安防。 水泥:淡季涨价,全国省会城市均价同比转正。据数字水泥网,截至 2024 年 6 月 21 日,全国水泥均价 393 元/吨,环比上涨 3 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Buy" [1]. Core Viewpoints - The SW basic chemical sector experienced a decline of 2.11% from June 17 to June 21, underperforming the Wind All A Index by 0.81 percentage points. The rubber additives, polyurethane, and carbon black sectors performed poorly, while viscose showed better performance [7]. - Supply constraints are evident due to the "dual carbon" initiative, leading to reduced capital expenditure in upstream energy and high global oil prices. Resource-based industries like titanium and phosphate are facing supply-demand mismatches due to expansion cycles and demand release [7]. - New technologies in synthetic biology, overseas pesticide formulations, and electronic materials are expected to achieve breakthroughs, indicating potential growth areas [7]. - The chemical industry is at a historical low in price spreads, and any marginal improvement in fundamentals could significantly boost product volume and price [7]. Summary by Sections 1. Overall Industry View - The basic chemical sector's performance is lagging behind the broader market, with specific sub-sectors showing significant declines [7]. - Supply constraints are impacting various sectors, with a focus on resource products and manufacturing [7]. 2. Key Sub-industry Information Tracking - MDI: Demand remains weak, with significant price drops observed. The production cost of pure MDI is 14,651 CNY/ton, down 0.39% week-on-week [10][9]. - TDI: The market is experiencing weak demand, with a market average price of 14,275 CNY/ton, down 1.45% from the previous week [10]. - Polyester filament: Prices are stabilizing, with POY, DTY, and FDY prices at 8,900, 9,135, and 7,850 CNY/ton respectively, showing slight increases [11]. 3. Data Tracking (1) Industry Trends - The basic chemical sector's decline of 2.11% indicates underperformance compared to the broader market [14]. (2) Macro Data - Various macroeconomic indicators are being monitored, including industrial value-added growth and price indices [21]. (3) Downstream Data - Downstream demand trends are being analyzed, particularly in relation to inventory levels and production rates [21]. (4) Price and Price Spread Volatility - A total of 336 tracked chemical products showed 24% price increases, 44% stable prices, and 32% declines, indicating a general downward trend in chemical prices [26].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Buy" [1] Core Viewpoints - Huawei's recent developer conference highlighted the launch of HarmonyOS NEXT and advancements in AI capabilities, indicating a strong focus on AI integration within its ecosystem [6][9] - The AI market is becoming increasingly competitive, with major players like Apple and Huawei emphasizing their AI strategies, which are expected to drive significant growth in cloud inference demand [9][6] - The report recommends focusing on companies like Tianfu Communication and Xinyi Sheng due to their potential in the growing AI and cloud computing sectors [9] Summary by Sections 1. Core Viewpoints - Huawei's HarmonyOS NEXT system is entering the Beta phase, integrating AI capabilities to enhance user experience and support third-party applications [6] - The "Xiao Yi" intelligent assistant has seen significant upgrades, improving its multi-modal recognition and processing capabilities [6] - The competition in the AI market is intensifying, with both Apple and Huawei launching their respective AI initiatives, which are expected to attract consumer interest and drive demand [9] 2. Market Review - The communication sector outperformed the broader market, with a weekly increase of 1.28%, while the CSI 300 index decreased by 1.30% [11] - Year-to-date, the communication sector has shown a growth of 5.4%, significantly outperforming both the ChiNext and CSI 300 indices [13] 3. Industry Data Updates - As of the end of 2023, China has built 3.377 million 5G base stations, marking a net increase of 1.065 million from the previous year [23] - In April 2023, the domestic smartphone market saw shipments of 24.071 million units, with 5G smartphones accounting for 84.1% of total shipments [25] - By April 2024, China Mobile reported a total of 790 million 5G package users, while China Telecom reported 331 million [28] 4. Recent News Highlights - A significant investment of 17.1 billion yuan has been approved for the "Vehicle-Road Cloud Integration" project in Wuhan, indicating a push towards smart transportation infrastructure [37] - China Telecom is initiating a large-scale procurement of IPTV smart set-top boxes, with a total scale of 20.32 million units planned [39]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to the company, with a target price of 7.94 CNY per share based on a 12x PE ratio for 2024 [2][3][6]. Core Insights - The company plans to repurchase shares worth between 150 million and 300 million CNY, reflecting confidence in its future development and aiming to enhance shareholder value [2][3]. - The feed sales are expected to grow steadily, benefiting from improved profitability in the downstream breeding sector, with a projected sales volume of 471, 516, and 556 million tons from 2024 to 2026 [6][19]. - The company is optimizing its pig farming structure and management, leading to a continuous decrease in breeding costs, with expected sales volumes of 1 million, 1.1 million, and 1.3 million pigs from 2024 to 2026 [6][19]. Financial Projections - The company forecasts revenues of 35.97 billion CNY in 2023, with a slight increase to 36.17 billion CNY in 2024, and further growth to 39.05 billion CNY in 2025 and 42.02 billion CNY in 2026 [20]. - The projected net profit for 2024 is 621 million CNY, increasing to 902 million CNY in 2025 and 1.115 billion CNY in 2026, with corresponding EPS of 0.66, 0.94, and 1.16 CNY per share [20][25]. - The feed segment is expected to maintain a gross margin of 8.4%, 8.8%, and 8.9% from 2024 to 2026, while the pig farming segment is projected to achieve a gross margin of 6%, 8.28%, and 11.48% over the same period [6][20].

Industry Rating - The report maintains a **Buy** rating for the automotive industry [1] Core Views - **Stronger-than-seasonal demand in May**: May 2024 passenger vehicle sales (excluding imports) reached 1.663 million units, down 3.0% YoY but up 9.5% MoM. Cumulative sales for Jan-May 2024 were 7.949 million units, up 7.8% YoY. Historically, May sales typically show a MoM decline of 3.6% in normal years and a slight increase of 0.5% in policy-stimulated years, indicating stronger-than-seasonal demand [1][8] - **Inventory at reasonable levels**: As of May 2024, the passenger vehicle inventory stood at 4.138 million units, with a dynamic inventory-to-sales ratio of 2.3, indicating a relatively healthy inventory level [1] - **Strong performance of new energy vehicles (NEVs)**: NEV sales in May reached 794,000 units, up 41.8% YoY and 15.6% MoM. The penetration rate of NEVs reached 47.7% in May, up 15.1 percentage points YoY. Cumulative NEV sales for Jan-May 2024 were 3.215 million units, up 41.4% YoY [1][25] - **Rising market share of Chinese brands**: Chinese brands accounted for 56.5% of the passenger vehicle market in Jan-May 2024, up 5.3 percentage points from 2023, driven by the growth of NEVs [1][21] Key Company Performance - **BYD**: BYD's market share in May was 15.9%, down 0.4 percentage points MoM. Key models like Qin PLUS, Han, and Tang showed significant growth in PHEV penetration [1][34] - **Geely and Changan**: Geely and Changan held market shares of 7.5% and 5.4% respectively in May, with NEV penetration rates of 51.0% and 49.7% [21][41] - **Ideal Auto**: Ideal L6 achieved an 8.0% market share in the high-end SUV segment in May [34] Investment Recommendations - **Passenger vehicle manufacturers**: Recommended companies include Changan Automobile, Great Wall Motors (H/A), and SAIC Motor. Companies to watch include BYD, Li Auto, Leapmotor, and XPeng, as well as Huawei and Xiaomi's automotive ventures [53] - **Auto parts suppliers**: Recommended companies include Nexteer, Zhengzhou Coal Mining Machinery, Minth Group, Baolong Automotive, Yinlun, Fuyao Glass (A/H), Jifeng Auto Parts, Bethel, IKD, Tuopu Group, Xusheng Group, Keboda, Huayu Automotive, Shangsheng Electronics, and Ningbo Huaxiang [53] - **Automotive services**: Recommended company is China Automotive Engineering Research Institute [53] Regional and Segment Analysis - **Regional NEV penetration**: In May 2024, NEV penetration rates were highest in South China (52.0%) and East China (50.3%), while Northeast China had the lowest penetration at 36.6% [41][44] - **Price segment analysis**: NEV penetration in the 100,000-200,000 RMB price range reached 40% in Q1 2024, while the 200,000+ RMB segment saw a penetration rate of 35% [40]

行业专题研究|纺织服饰 2024 年 6 月 25 日 证券研究报告 纺织服饰行业 2024 年中报业绩前瞻:纺织制造景气度较高,服装家纺表现中规中矩 | 分析师: [Tabl | 糜韩杰 | 分析师: | 左琴琴 | 分析师: | 李咏红 | |-------------------|-----------------------------|-------------|-----------------------------|-------------|-----------------------------| | e_Author] | SAC 执证号: S0260516020001 | | SAC 执证号: S0260521050001 | | SAC 执证号: S0260523100001 | | | SFC CE.no: BPH764 | | SFC CE.no: BSE791 | | | | | 021-38003650 | | 021-38003540 | | 021-38003542 | | | mihanjie@gf.com.cn | | zuoqinqin@gf.com.cn | | ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to the company, with a target price of HKD 41.16 per share, compared to the current price of HKD 28.20 [4]. Core Insights - The company announced that its partner Takeda received EU approval for FRUZAQLA® (furmonertinib), which is a significant milestone for the treatment of adult patients with metastatic colorectal cancer who have progressed after standard therapies [2]. - The international expansion of furmonertinib is accelerating, with approvals in the US and Europe, and a submission for listing in Japan [2]. - The commercialization of furmonertinib in China is progressing well, with over 80,000 patients treated as of mid-2023, and additional indications for gastric and endometrial cancers have also been submitted for approval [2]. - The company's R&D and commercialization capabilities have been validated, and it is expected to turn profitable by 2025, with projected net profits of -116 million, 1 million, and 116 million USD for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively [2][3]. Financial Summary - The company's main revenue is projected to grow from USD 426 million in 2022 to USD 1,099 million by 2026, with a notable growth rate of 96.5% in 2023 [3]. - The EBITDA is expected to improve from -399 million USD in 2022 to 65 million USD in 2026, indicating a recovery in profitability [3]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to shift from -361 million USD in 2022 to 116 million USD in 2026, reflecting a significant turnaround [3]. - The company's earnings per share (EPS) is projected to improve from -0.42 in 2022 to 0.13 in 2026 [3].