[Table_Page] 行业专题研究|软件与服务 2024 年 7 月 26 日 证券研究报告 [Table_Title] 【广发 TMT 产业研究】美股科技股观察 | 24Q2 业绩跟踪 谷歌：业绩增势延续但略放缓，云增速继续回升，维持高资本开支指引 [Tabl 分析师： 杨琳琳 [Table_Summary] 核心观点： | --- | --- | |-----------|----------------------------| | e_Author] | SAC 执证号：S0260514050004 | | | SFC CE.no: BNC117 | | | 0755-23480370 | | | yll@gf.com.cn | ⚫ 24Q2 收入和净利润保持双位数增长，但略放缓，运营利润率环比提升，净利率环比下降；资本支出环比增长。 根据财报，24Q2 收入同比+13.6%；运营利润同比+25.6%，运营利润率 32.4%（YoY+3.1pct，QoQ+0.7pct）； 净利润同比+28.6%。24Q2 资本开支 132 亿美元（YoY+91%，QoQ+10%）。公司维持 24 年季度资本支出将 ...

[Table_Title] "求知"系列二 矿山装备深度：逆流而上，从新出发 [Table_Summary] 核心观点： 矿山机械产业链：挖装、运输、破磨为主力设备。矿山开采分为勘探、 开采、洗选、冶炼四大流程，其中矿山装备主要集中在开采和洗选。开 采的核心是挖装（挖机、电铲）和矿车，洗选的核心是破碎和磨机。 长周期资本开支不足，金属价格高企+资本密集度向上为本轮新驱动。 周期复盘：矿山装备上一轮周期持续了 17 年，本轮周期从 18 年开始， 行业经历了长周期资本开支不足后缓慢上行，22 年以来资本开支开始 加速，23 年全球前十大矿企资本开支同比增长超 15%，且 24 年预期 增速维持高位。驱动因素：（1）矿石价格支撑矿企高盈利水平：本轮矿 石价格上涨幅度大、持续时间长、韧性足，铜金铝价格均处于历史高位， 矿企盈利能力回升具备资本开支能力。（2）矿石品位下降促进资本密集 度持续攀升：过去二十年，智利铜矿品位下降近 60%，现有铜矿 16-22 年资本密集度自 11378 美元/吨提升至 19542 美元/吨，提升超 70%。 从下游矿企增产意愿和矿机龙头订单来看，当前景气度持续上升。（1） 铜、金主要矿 ...

[Table_Page] 行业专题研究|纺织服饰 2024 年 7 月 27 日 证券研究报告 [Table_Title] 纺织服饰行业 从中国奥运领奖服变迁看国内运动鞋服行业竞争格局变化 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |----------------|----------------------------|----------|----------------------------|----------|----------------------------| | 分析师： [Tabl | 糜韩杰 | 分析师： | 左琴琴 | 分析师： | 李咏红 | | e_Author] | SAC 执证号：S0260516020001 | | SAC 执证号：S0260521050001 | | SAC 执证号：S0260523100001 | SFC CE.no: BPH764 SFC CE.no: BSE791 021-38003650 021-38003540 021-38003542 mihanjie@gf.com.cn zuoqinqin@gf.com. ...

[Table_Title] 计算机行业 [Table_Page] 跟踪分析|计算机 证券研究报告 从谷歌财报看 AI 投入与产出 [Table_Summary] 核心观点： 谷歌发布 FY24Q2 财报，谷歌云营收占比提升。FY24Q2 公司实现营 收 847 亿美元，实现净利润 236.2 亿美元。分业务看，谷歌服务、谷 歌云分别实现营收 739 亿美元、103 亿美元，贡献营收占比分别为 87.2%、12.2%。 谷歌广告业务收入增长平稳，目前 AI 增量贡献或有限。谷歌于 2023 年 12 月推出 Gemini 大模型，此后应用于其广告业务中。23Q4-24Q2， 广告业务营收分别为 655 亿美元、617 亿美元和 646 亿美元，同比增 速分别为 11%、13%和 11%。在 Gemini 大模型推出后，谷歌的广告 业务的营收增长并未发生明显的持续增长。我们判断，尽管 AI 相关功 能推动其广告业务相关产品升级，但其体现在收入层面的增长数据并 不明显，目前 AI 在广告业务收入增长中的贡献或较为有限。 AI 拉动谷歌云业务增长，季度收入首次突破百亿美元。受益于 AI 拉动， 谷歌云增长强劲，FY2 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of $19.91 per ADS, compared to the current price of $13.73 [4]. Core Views - For Q2 2024, the company is expected to achieve revenue of 1.91 billion RMB, representing a year-on-year growth of 28.4% and a quarter-on-quarter growth of 12.1%. The overall performance of the recruitment industry is below expectations due to macroeconomic pressures, leading to a contraction in enterprise recruitment demand [2][3]. - The company, as a leading online recruitment platform, continues to benefit from network effects, with a projected 5% year-on-year growth in additional services revenue for job seekers in Q2 2024 [2]. - The report anticipates that the user base will maintain a good year-on-year growth trend, with a slight decline in the number of paying enterprise clients due to macroeconomic impacts [2][3]. Financial Summary - Revenue projections for 2024 and 2025 are 7.415 billion RMB and 9.045 billion RMB, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 24.6% and 22.0% [2][3]. - Adjusted net profits for 2024 and 2025 are expected to be 2.581 billion RMB and 2.976 billion RMB, respectively [2][3]. - The report highlights a slight decrease in ARPU (Average Revenue Per User) by 0.3% year-on-year for Q2 2024, but a slight increase quarter-on-quarter [2].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of 5.69 CNY per share based on a 13x PE ratio for 2024 [5][18]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 5.19 billion CNY for the first half of 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 3.7%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 270 million CNY, up 3.8% year-on-year [1][3]. - The company focuses on upgrading existing stores and enhancing product structure, with a total of 3,655 stores as of mid-2024, adding 16 new stores and renovating 202 old ones [1][3]. - The company has strengthened its online and offline integration, attracting 5.35 million customers through online channels, generating nearly 500 million CNY in online sales [1][3]. Financial Summary - Revenue (in million CNY): 10,020 (2022A), 10,133 (2023A), 10,598 (2024E), 11,126 (2025E), 11,573 (2026E) [3][11]. - Net Profit (in million CNY): 486 (2022A), 561 (2023A), 595 (2024E), 629 (2025E), 663 (2026E) [3][11]. - EPS (in CNY): 0.36 (2022A), 0.41 (2023A), 0.44 (2024E), 0.46 (2025E), 0.49 (2026E) [3][11]. - The company’s net profit growth rates are projected at 6.1% for 2024, 5.8% for 2025, and 5.4% for 2026 [1][3].

[Table_Title] 宋城演艺（300144.SZ） 24Q2 业绩符合预期，佛山项目表现亮眼 [Table_Summary] 核心观点： 事件：公司披露半年度业绩预告，预计上半年实现收入 11-12.5 亿元， 同增 48.5%-68.8%，实现归母净利润 4.8-6.2 亿元，同增 58.5%- 104.8%，实现扣非归母净利润 4.77-6.17 亿元，同增 61.5%-108.9%。 经测算，单 Q2 实现收入 5.4-6.9 亿元，同比增速 6.8%-36.4%，实现 归母净利润 2.3-3.7 亿元，同比增速-6%至 52%；扣非归母净利润 2.3- 3.7 亿元，同比增速-5%至 53%。若取业绩预告中值，Q2 收入同比增 速约 21.6%，归母净利润同比增速约 23.0%，扣非归母净利润同比增 速约 24.2%，收入利润增速匹配，基本符合预期，我们判断三峡轻资 产项目一次性收入对上半年业绩有所提振。 从近期千古情场次安排上看，据宋城演艺公众号，Q2 全国 12 大千古 情合计演出 2610+场，是 2023 年同期的 136%。若剔除广东千古情演 出场次，合计演出 2240+场，是 20 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the company, with a current price of 23.25 CNY and a fair value of 24.41 CNY [1]. Core Views - The report highlights that the special government bond funding will support the replacement of old vessels, which is expected to benefit the leading ship power company. The policy aims to accelerate the retirement and replacement of old, high-energy-consuming and high-emission vessels with new energy and clean energy vessels [1]. - The report notes that the company is well-positioned to benefit from the new subsidy policies aimed at promoting the replacement of old vessels, particularly in the inland and coastal shipping sectors. The company’s products include medium-speed engines and integrated electric propulsion systems, which align with the government's green initiatives [1]. - The earnings forecast estimates the company's EPS for 2024, 2025, and 2026 to be 0.54 CNY, 0.77 CNY, and 1.17 CNY per share, respectively. The report maintains a fair value estimate of 24.41 CNY per share, corresponding to a 45 times PE valuation for 2024 [1]. Financial Summary - The company's revenue is projected to grow from 38,280 million CNY in 2022 to 61,244 million CNY in 2026, with a CAGR of approximately 13.3% [2][6]. - The EBITDA is expected to increase significantly from 1,537 million CNY in 2022 to 5,743 million CNY in 2026, indicating strong operational performance [2][6]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted to rise from 336 million CNY in 2022 to 2,569 million CNY in 2026, reflecting a robust growth trajectory [2][6]. - The report indicates a significant improvement in the company's profitability metrics, with the net profit margin expected to increase from 1.0% in 2022 to 6.4% in 2026 [6]. Investment Insights - The report emphasizes the company's leading position in the ship power sector and its commitment to high-end, intelligent, and green development, which aligns with national policies promoting environmental sustainability [1]. - The anticipated demand for the replacement of old vessels and the transition to new energy vessels is expected to drive growth for the company, enhancing its market share and profitability [1].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Hold" [4] Core Viewpoints - The National Development and Reform Commission and the Ministry of Finance issued measures to support large-scale equipment updates and consumer goods replacement, with approximately 300 billion yuan allocated for this purpose [15][20] - The subsidy for replacing old home appliances covers eight categories, with subsidy rates between 15% and 20%, exceeding previous expectations [15][20] - The retail sales of the subsidized categories account for approximately 79% of the overall home appliance market, potentially driving an additional 50 to 200 billion yuan in sales [20][21] Summary by Relevant Sections Policy Support - The government will allocate around 300 billion yuan for supporting large-scale equipment updates and consumer goods replacement, with specific funds designated for home appliances [15][20] - Eight categories of home appliances are included in the subsidy program, with a maximum subsidy of 2,000 yuan per product [15][20] Market Impact - The retail sales of the eight subsidized categories are estimated to be about 6,478 billion yuan, representing 79% of the total home appliance market [20][21] - The expected impact of the subsidy policy could lead to an additional year-on-year growth of 1.2% to 9.8% in the home appliance industry [20][21] Investment Recommendations - Recommended companies include leading white goods manufacturers such as Midea Group, Gree Electric Appliances, Haier Smart Home, and Hisense Home Appliances, as well as black goods leaders like Hisense Visual and TCL Electronics [28]

[Table_Page] 跟踪分析|纺织服饰 证券研究报告 [Table_Title] 海外运动鞋服行业全球观察 24Q1 财报总结：库存多已恢复健康，关注上游制造机会 [Table_Summary] 核心观点： ⚫ 24Q1 多数海外体育用品公司营收表现中规中矩，但毛利率改善。根据 财报，除昂跑、德克斯户外、Lululemon、斯凯奇，24Q1 多数海外体 育用品公司营收同比增速仅为单位数或同比下滑，主要系受到全球经 济下行导致整体购买力下降等负面因素影响。而相较于快时尚代表公 司，代表性海外体育用品公司大多没有表现出更优增速。（1）分地区来 看，24Q1 北美、大中华地区及 EMEA/欧洲地区营收增速环比提速。 （2）分品类来看，24Q1 鞋类销售韧性更强。（3）在盈利能力方面， 24Q1 多数代表性体育用品公司毛利率有所改善。24Q1 除耐克、亚瑟 士、彪马 SG&A 费率下降之外，其他品牌 SG&A 费率均有所提升，主 要系人工成本、租金、折旧摊销以及广告费用增加。 ⚫ 多公司新财年营收增速指引放缓。根据财报，在营收指引方面，除阿迪 达斯、彪马、亚瑟士外，其他主要代表性海外体育用品公司营收增速指 引均 ...