本报告仅供 Choice 东方财富 使用,请勿传阅。 行业快报 2024 年 07 月 14 日 银行 金融数据反映的趋势变化与银行股逻辑 事件:人民银行披露 6 月金融数据,6 月新增信贷 2.13 万亿元, 同比减少 9200 亿元;新增社融 3.3 万亿元,同比减少 9300 元, 我们点评如下: 需求约束下,银行放弃"规模情结"效应持续显现。今年 6 月 新增信贷规模明显弱于 2023 年同期,但若剔除 2022 年、2023 年 的信贷显著高增长的两年,今年 6 月新增信贷数据好于季节性, 目前银行信贷增长已经从以往供给约束转为需求约束,过去两年 银行加速"内卷式"放贷行为在今年有所收敛,叠加央行开始对 手工补息行为严监管,银行逐步放弃"规模情结",并且我们预计 这会下下半年金融数据中持续体现。 从信贷结构来看,"企业部门偏强、居民部门继续走弱"。6 月企业中 长期贷款同比减少 6233 亿元,成为 6 月新增信贷同比少增的主要影 响因素,但剔除 2022 年、2023 年高基数效应,从季节性角度,今年 6 月新增企业中长期贷款强于 2021、2020 年,叠加考虑到今年地方 化债的影响,企业中长期 ...

2024 年 07 月 14 日 继续偏多,等待下一步 上期我们认为市场仍然偏多,应在均衡配置的基础上保持偏积极心 态,但最好等到量能有所恢复之后再进一步提升风险偏好。事后来看, 市场走势基本符合预期。 本期观点:继续偏多,等待下一步 市场上周整体回升明显,量能也有所恢复到近一个月的最高位,积极 信号较为明显。但周五大盘在 20 日均线附近缩量窄幅震荡,银行、 地产等板块上涨较为明显,而科技方向则明显下跌,这一方面说明市 场或许在博弈三中全会的政策预期,另一方面则说明市场整体的风险 偏好并未真正有效提升。整体来看,近期的市场格局除了围绕三中全 会的政策博弈外,呈现出的还是高低切换为主的节奏。 从纯定量的全天候择时模型角度看,模型近期发出了五次看多信号, 而且这些看多信号都处于过去 20 年年度均线这一重要的趋势支撑线 之上,具有更加积极的意义。回顾过去两三年中的类似情景可知,如 果可以将这一类技术支撑的逻辑含义外推的话,当前即使不是最终底 部位置,无论在时间上还是在空间上来看应该离这一底部位置都较为 接近了。 因此,我们倾向于在当前位置继续偏多,直到市场下一步的方向选择 来做进一步的应对:如果市场选择放量突破 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy-A" with a target price of 405.14 CNY [5]. Core Insights - The company is expected to achieve a revenue of 114.1 to 131.4 billion CNY for the first half of 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 35.40% to 55.93%. The net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to be between 25.7 to 29.6 billion CNY, reflecting a growth of 42.84% to 64.51% compared to the same period last year [1]. - For Q2 2024, the company anticipates revenue of 55.51 to 72.81 billion CNY, with a year-on-year increase of 21.85% to 59.83%. The expected net profit for the same period is between 14.43 to 18.33 billion CNY, indicating a growth of 19.54% to 51.83% [2]. - The global semiconductor equipment market is projected to reach a record high, with sales expected to grow by 3.4% to 109 billion USD in 2024, surpassing the previous record set in 2022. The company is well-positioned to benefit from this growth and the ongoing domestic substitution trend in China [3]. - The company has made significant advancements in various semiconductor equipment sectors, including etching, thin film deposition, vertical furnace equipment, epitaxy, and cleaning equipment, establishing itself as a leader in the domestic market [4]. Financial Projections - Revenue projections for the company are 299.84 billion CNY in 2024, 398.79 billion CNY in 2025, and 516.63 billion CNY in 2026. The net profit estimates are 58.98 billion CNY for 2024, 78.35 billion CNY for 2025, and 93.18 billion CNY for 2026 [11]. - The company is expected to achieve a profit margin of 25.52% in Q2 2024, which is an increase of 6.44 percentage points compared to the previous quarter [2].

公司快报 2024 年 07 月 13 日 石头科技(688169.SH) 剔除退税影响,Q2 业绩保持较快增长 事件:公司发布 2024 年半年度业绩预增公告。预计 2024 年上 半年实现归母净利润 10.0 亿元~12.0 亿元,YoY+35.2%~+62.3%; 经折算,预计 Q2 单季度实现归母净利润 6.0 亿元~8.0 亿元, YoY+12.4%~+49.7%。公司深入挖掘全球市场份额,海外收入保持 较快增长,业绩稳步提升。展望后续,我们看好石头科技在全球 市场的竞争力,较强的创新能力有望推动公司打开第二成长曲线。 Q2 扫地机业务保持稳定增长:根据奥维数据,Q2 石头扫地机线 上销售额 YoY+9%,销量 YoY+6%,均价 YoY+4%。在国内整体消费 景气低迷情况下,公司国内销售仍然保持稳定增长。海外扫地机 行业维持高景气,根据 Google Trends 数据,Q2 扫地机全球搜索 热度 YoY+14%。石头在海外市场搭建本地团队,做深本土营销、 做精本土用户运营,竞争力不断加强。渠道方面,公司在北美线 下渠道实现突破,已进入 Target、Bestbuy 线下网点。 Q2 业绩保持较快 ...

公司快报 事件概述： 发布多款新品助力生态构建，推出"4+2"星座夯实数据能力 云上数据+云上计算+云上应用，云服务体系持续完善 此外，星图本次签订多个战略合作协议 1）无锡经开区与中科星图签 约落地全国首个空天信息全产业链基地，总投资 30 亿元。未来将在 卫星制造、星座运营、卫星测运控、卫星数据运用和增值服务等方面 实现合作。2）中科星图与星图测控、微纳星空、深蓝航天等 18 家企 业签订商业航天产业生态战略合作协议。 | --- | --- | |-----------------------------------------|--------------------| | | 证券研究报告 | | | 云平台服务 | | 投资评级 | 买入-A | | | 维持评级 | | 6 个月目标价 股价 (2024-07-12) 30.35 | 34 元 元 | | | | | 交易数据 | | | 总市值(百万元 | ) 16,489.94 | | 流通市值 | (百万元) 16,489.94 | | 总股本 (百万股) 543.33 | | | 流通股本(百万股 | ) 543.33 | | 12 个月 ...

本报告仅供 Choice 东方财富 使用,请勿传阅。 公司快报 2024 年 07 月 11 日 浪潮信息(000977.SZ) 24H1 业绩高增,算力需求带动服务器高景气 事件概述: 7 月 10 日,浪潮信息发布《2024 年半年度业绩预告》。上半年,归母 净利润预计盈利 5.5-6.5 亿元,同比增长 75.56%-107.48%;扣非归 母净利润预计盈利 3.72-4.72 亿元,同比扭亏为盈。 二季度业绩持续高增长,全球化布局不断加快 2024 年上半年,服务器行业市场需求逐步改善,公司紧抓行业上行 机遇,完善产品线布局,持续致力于产品技术创新和提升客户满意度, 大力拓展国内外客户,实现业务快速成长。经财务部门初步测算,上 半年公司实现营业收入同比增长 60%以上,归母净利润同比增长 75.56%-107.48%。单 Q2 来看,营收预计约 220 亿元,同比增长约 43%; 归母净利润预计 2.44-3.44 亿元,同比增长约 112%-199%。 此外,浪潮信息全球化布局不断加快,拥有 8 个全球研发中心、14 个全球制造中心及 50 多个业务分支机构,服务器产品技术及方案能 力被全球客户广泛 ...

Group 1 - The report analyzes the historical performance of the A-share market following the Third Plenary Sessions of the Communist Party, indicating that the market typically experiences a slight decline before the meetings, with mixed performance in the month and three months following the meetings [6][30][32] - Small-cap stocks tend to show significant gains in the three months after the meetings, suggesting an increase in market risk appetite [6][30] - Historically, the market has bottomed out and started to rebound after the Third Plenary Sessions held in 2003, 2008, and 2013, with rebound durations ranging from 5 months to 1 year, reflecting the long-term impact of policy direction and economic expectations [6][30] Group 2 - The report highlights that the A-share market experienced a comprehensive decline last week, with trading volume decreasing compared to the previous week [11][109] - In terms of sector performance, the financial sector saw mixed results, with real estate stocks rising by 0.81% while banks and non-bank financials fell [11][109] - The technology growth sectors showed varied performance, with the pharmaceutical sector increasing by 0.11% while media stocks decreased by 0.59% [11][109] Group 3 - The report notes that the valuation differentiation index for industries has declined recently, indicating a shift in market sentiment towards lower valuation sectors [48] - The report also mentions that the A-share market's relative valuation compared to Hong Kong stocks has decreased, while the valuation of the ChiNext board has also declined relative to US stocks [52][51] - The report provides insights into the current PE and PB levels across various industries, highlighting that real estate and non-bank financials are among the highest in PE ratios, while leisure services and food and beverage sectors have the lowest [110]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy-A" rating to the company with a target price of 12.48 CNY, while the current stock price is 10.32 CNY as of July 10, 2024 [1][5]. Core Insights - The company, Shenzhen Expressway Group Co., Ltd., is a leading player in the South China highway sector, focusing on a business model that prioritizes highway operations while also venturing into environmental protection [1][43]. - The company exhibits stable performance, strong cash flow, and attractive dividend yields, making it a quality choice for "low volatility dividends" [1][2]. - The company benefits from its advantageous location, which enhances the value of its road assets, and ongoing expansion projects support the sustainability of its core business [1][2]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - Shenzhen Expressway was established in 1996 and is the first company from Shenzhen listed in both Hong Kong and Shanghai. It is controlled by the Shenzhen State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission [1][43][45]. - The company operates primarily in highway management and has expanded into the environmental sector since 2020, creating a dual business model of "highway + environmental protection" [1][43]. Financial Performance - The company reported a stable revenue growth with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 10.82% from 2016 to 2023. In 2023, the revenue was 9.3 billion CNY, with a slight decline of 0.8% year-on-year due to downturns in clean energy and management services [6][55]. - The net profit for 2023 was 2.33 billion CNY, with earnings per share projected to be 1.04 CNY for 2024 [6][55]. Dividend Policy - The company maintains a high dividend payout ratio, with a dividend rate of 56% in 2023, positioning it among the leaders in the industry [1][72]. - The average dividend yield in the highway sector is around 3.1%, with the company currently offering a yield of approximately 5.3%, making it attractive in a declining interest rate environment [1][67][69]. Market Position and Growth Drivers - The company is expected to benefit from the opening of the Shenzhen-Zhongshan Channel and the second phase of the Yangjiang Expressway, which will drive traffic and revenue growth [2][5]. - Long-term benefits are anticipated from new regulations that extend the duration of operating rights for highways, potentially up to 40 years, addressing sustainability concerns in the industry [2][86]. Environmental Business - The environmental segment, which includes clean energy generation and waste resource management, is showing signs of stable growth, with a 29.1% year-on-year increase in kitchen waste processing revenue [2][55]. - The environmental business currently contributes a smaller portion of total revenue but is expected to mature and enhance overall profitability in the future [2][55].

事件：杰克股份披露 2024 中报业绩预告 2024 年 H1"过梗王"顺利推出，H2 有望承接旺季需求 投资建议： 股价表现 -18% -8% 2% 12% 22% 32% 42% 52% 2023-07 2023-11 2024-02 2024-06 杰克股份 沪深300 xinzx@essence.com.cn 本报告仅供 Choice 东方财富 使用，请勿传阅。 数据来源：Wind 资讯，国投证券研究中心预测 单季度利润高增，旺季有望更进一步 公司预计 2024 年半年度归母净利润 3.8 亿元到 4.33 亿元，与上年 同期相比，增加 1.09 亿元至 1.62 亿元，同比增加 40.43%到 60.02%。 以中枢计算，拆分单季度，Q2 实现营收归母净利润 2.19 亿元，同比 增长 38.29%。 根据公司披露，2024 年上半年，全球经济缓慢复苏，杰克股份紧抓行 业复苏机遇，在聚焦核心品类、打造爆品、实现价值营销的经营指引 下，通过"快反王"等爆品发布会及挑战赛拉动产品结构升级，带动 各产品品类的增长，实现公司业绩增长。我们认为，杰克股份在 H1 所进行的各项业务实践，拉升了公司中高端的产品的 ...

公司快报 2024 年 07 月 11 日 长城汽车(601633.SH) 2024Q2 业绩优异,出口&坦克驱动高增长 事件:据长城汽车业绩预告,2024 年上半年实现归母净利润 65-73 亿元, 同比+378-436%,实现扣非净利润 50-60 亿元,同比+567-701%。 Q2 业绩超出我们预期,利润增长主要来自出口以及坦克销量增长。 1)单拆 Q2:预计实现归母净利润 33-41 亿元,同比+176%-243%,环比+1%- 26%,根据国家会计准则调整,将先进制造业企业增值税加计抵减计入经营 性利润,故还原后 Q1 约实现扣非净利润 26 亿元,计算得到 Q2 预计实现扣 非净利润 24-34 亿元,同比+148%-252%,环比-8%-+31%,其中非经预计主 要来自海外工厂税收返还、递延收益摊销等。 2)出口大幅增长:24H1 出口销量 20.2 万台、同比+63%,占比提升 12pct 至 36%;其中 Q2 出口销量 10.9 万台、环比+17%、占比环比提升 4pct 至 38%; 3)坦克增长驱动国内销售结构优化:24H1 坦克品牌内外销合计销售 11.6 万 台、同比+99%,占 ...