华福证券 建筑材料 2024 年 11 月 20 日 研 eVTOL 试点落地在即，设计规划有望先行 事件： 11 月 18 日，中国航空运输协会通航业务部，无人机工作委员会主任透露， 中央空管委即将在六个城市开展 eVTOL 试点。同时，据新华财经报道，六 个试点城市初步确定为合肥、杭州、深圳、苏州、成都、重庆，试点文件 对航线和区域都有相关规划，对 600 米以下空域授权部分地方政府，意味 着相关地方政府要承担更多管理责任。 投资要点： 地方密集出台低空经济实施方案，eVTOL 试点城市有望落地 24 年 3 月全国两会首次将"积极打造商业航天、低空经济等新增长引 擎"写入了政府工作报告，之后安徽、湖南、四川、西藏、海南、内 蒙古等多个省份以及地市先后颁布了低空经济高质量发展实施方案， 对低空经济规模、起降点、常态化航线等做出了明确规划；并据中国 航空运输协会通航业务部，无人机工作委员会主任透露，中央空管委 即将在六个城市开展 eVTOL 试点。低空经济政策整体呈现出战略高度 定位、地方积极响应、目标持续细化等特点。并且我们预计后续 eVTOL 试点城市或将进一步扩围，国家层面的方案也值得期待。 eVTO ...

Investment Rating - The report gives a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of HKD 51.46 [6] Core Views - The company is focused on nephrology and anti-infective fields, with differentiated products entering the commercialization phase [2] - Nefecon (Nefucon) is expected to enter the 2024 national medical insurance catalog, with strong potential for volume growth through price reduction [3] - The company has a fully integrated mRNA platform and is expanding its mRNA product pipeline [16] - The company's products address unmet medical needs in IgA nephropathy and multi-drug resistant infections, with significant clinical and commercial potential [3][4] Financial Data and Valuation - The company's revenue is expected to grow significantly, with projected revenues of RMB 7.0 billion, RMB 15.6 billion, and RMB 25.6 billion for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively [5] - The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be RMB -979 million, RMB -320 million, and RMB 171 million for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively [5] - The DCF valuation suggests a fair value of HKD 51.46 per share, with a fair market value of HKD 16.8 billion [5] Product Pipeline and Commercialization - Nefecon (Nefucon) is the first drug globally approved for the treatment of IgA nephropathy, with significant clinical value and potential to become a foundational treatment [3][18] - Eravacycline (Yijia) has shown strong efficacy in treating multi-drug resistant infections, with rapid commercialization and revenue growth [4] - Etrasimod (Yiqu Mod) has the potential to become a first-line treatment for moderate to severe ulcerative colitis in China, with NDA submission expected in 2024 [2][104] Market Potential and Competitive Landscape - The prevalence of IgA nephropathy in China is 1.5-2 times higher than in Europe and 3-6 times higher than in the US, with a large and growing patient base [3][38] - The company has a competitive advantage in the multi-drug resistant infection market, with complementary products addressing unmet clinical needs [4][96] - The company's mRNA platform and pipeline have the potential to drive long-term growth, with a focus on oncology and autoimmune diseases [16][33] Strategic Focus and Future Outlook - The company is transitioning from a licensing model to a dual-driven model of strong R&D and commercialization capabilities [16] - The company is strategically focused on nephrology and anti-infective fields, with a pipeline that could address the needs of approximately 10 million patients with glomerular diseases [77] - The company's products are expected to achieve peak annual sales of RMB 10 billion, driven by the commercialization of four core products [29][30]

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Outperform the Market" indicating that the overall return of the industry is expected to exceed the market benchmark index by more than 5% in the next 6 to 12 months [3][7]. Core Insights - From January to October, the national railway transported 3.71 billion passengers, marking a historical high for the same period, with a year-on-year growth of 13% [2]. - The China-Europe Railway Express has surpassed 100,000 trips, delivering over 11 million TEUs (Twenty-foot Equivalent Units) of goods valued at over $420 billion [2]. - The goal of reaching 200,000 kilometers of railway by 2035 presents significant market opportunities for the rail transit equipment industry, with an average of 3,500 kilometers of new railway lines expected to be completed annually from 2026 to 2035 [2]. Summary by Sections Passenger Transport - The national railway's passenger transport has reached a record high of 3.71 billion passengers from January to October, reflecting a 13% increase year-on-year [2]. China-Europe Railway Express - The cumulative trips of the China-Europe Railway Express have exceeded 100,000, with over 11 million TEUs delivered and a total cargo value exceeding $420 billion [2]. Market Opportunities - The "14th Five-Year Plan" aims for the railway operating mileage to reach 165,000 kilometers by 2025, with a long-term target of 200,000 kilometers by 2035, creating vast market space for the rail transit equipment sector [2]. Recommended Companies - China CNR Corporation: A global leader in rail transit equipment, maintaining the top position in revenue [2]. - China Railway Signal & Communication Corporation: A leading provider of rail transit control systems [2]. - Times Electric: A leading supplier of traction and conversion systems, consistently leading the domestic market [2]. - Sifang Automation: A core supplier in the field of high-speed rail comprehensive monitoring [2]. - Shenzhou High-speed Railway: A leading enterprise in intelligent operation and maintenance equipment for rail transit [2]. - Huizhong Technology: Provides integrated solutions for rail transit operation and maintenance [2].

Group 1 - The report highlights that the National Healthcare Security Administration has included 36 projects in the "Guidelines for the Establishment of Comprehensive Diagnosis and Treatment Medical Service Price Projects (Trial)" to standardize medical service pricing across provinces, promoting service quality and convenience for patients [12][2]. - The medical index showed negative returns across six sub-industries this week, with the worst performers being medical services (-5.51%) and chemical pharmaceuticals (-4.08%) [13][2]. - The new pricing guidelines emphasize service output orientation, categorizing projects into diagnosis fees, bed fees, and transport fees, and introducing new projects like "palliative care" and "air medical transport" to meet the needs of an aging society [12][2]. Group 2 - The report reviews the performance of the pharmaceutical sector from November 11 to November 15, noting that the medical commercial sector had a decline of 1.52% and medical devices dropped by 3.37% [13][2]. - The valuation levels for the pharmaceutical sector indicate that chemical pharmaceuticals have the highest PE ratio at 63.06 times, followed by biological products at 52.68 times [13][2]. - The report tracks the 16th China Pharmaceutical Entrepreneurs, Scientists, and Investors Conference, emphasizing the importance of international expansion and mergers for Chinese pharmaceutical companies to achieve global competitiveness [18][2].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the electronic industry [1] Core Insights - The AI PC market continues to grow robustly, with shipments reaching 13.3 million units in Q3 2024, marking a 49% year-on-year increase and accounting for 20% of total global PC shipments [2] - Apple is driving innovation in AI terminals and AIoT, with plans to launch a wall-mounted tablet device by March 2025, which will integrate AI capabilities to manage applications and smart home devices [1][2] - The report highlights significant growth in the AI PC segment, particularly with Windows devices capturing a majority share of 53% in AI PC shipments, reflecting a 93% increase in Windows AI PC shipments [2] Summary by Sections 1. Market Performance - The electronic sector index fell by 4.15% during the week of November 11-15, 2024, while the broader market indices also experienced declines [14] - The electronic sector ranked 20th among all industries in terms of performance during this period [14] 2. Industry Dynamics - The semiconductor sector is witnessing substantial government support, with TSMC's U.S. subsidiary receiving $6.6 billion for semiconductor production [36] - The report notes a significant increase in the Chinese chip manufacturing equipment market, projected to exceed $40 billion in 2024 [36][37] - The report also discusses the competitive landscape in the SiC substrate market, highlighting a price drop due to oversupply and intensified competition [44] 3. Company Dynamics - Companies such as Suzhou Kema Technology have emerged as leaders in advanced ceramic materials for semiconductor equipment, reporting a 74.65% increase in revenue year-on-year [38] - The report mentions that AMD's data center revenue has surpassed Intel's for the first time, indicating a shift in market dynamics [52] 4. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on opportunities within the AI terminal sector, including AI PCs, AI smartphones, AI foldable screens, and AIoT, recommending companies like Huajin Technology and TCL Technology [4]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report indicates that there is no urgent need for the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates, despite a slight increase in inflation expectations. The probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in December has decreased from 75.7% to 61.9% following comments from Fed Chairman Powell [1][27][28]. - The October inflation rate in the U.S. is reported at 2.6%, which is higher than the previous value of 2.4%, indicating a stable inflation trend. The core CPI also aligns with market expectations, showing a year-on-year increase of 3.3% [2][27][28]. - The labor market remains resilient, with initial jobless claims decreasing to 217,000, down from 221,000, and continuing claims also declining to 1.873 million from 1.884 million [2][27][28]. Group 2 - In the equity market, major global indices experienced declines, with the Hang Seng Index falling by 6.28% and the Korean Composite Index down by 5.63% [55][60]. - The report highlights that the financial sector in the U.S. saw a modest increase of 1.02%, while the healthcare sector faced a significant decline of 5.55% [64]. - In the commodity market, cotton showed the highest increase at 2.42%, while CBOT soybean oil experienced the largest drop at 6.75% [72]. Group 3 - The report notes that the U.S. dollar appreciated by 0.92% against the Chinese yuan, with the dollar index rising by 1.65% [68]. - The report indicates that the 10-year Treasury yield in the U.S. rose by 13 basis points to 4.43%, while yields in Germany decreased by 5 basis points to 2.33% [77].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the transportation industry [1] Core Insights - The shipping sector shows signs of improvement with a narrowing decline in oil tanker rates and a slight recovery in dry bulk shipping rates, while the international shipping market remains stable [2][41] - The logistics sector is expected to see continued growth in demand, particularly in express delivery, with a focus on leading companies in the franchise express segment [42][43] - The aviation sector is witnessing a recovery in direct flights between China and Canada, which is anticipated to boost international routes and improve aircraft utilization rates [46][47] Summary by Sections Industry Weekly Market Review - The transportation index fell by 3.34% this week, underperforming the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index by 0.05 percentage points [10] - Notable stock performances include Jinjiang Online (+19.6%) and Sinotrans Limited (+16.8%) [15] - The industry valuation is currently at a relatively low level, with a PE (TTM) of 17.1 times [17] Industry High-Frequency Data Tracking - In the shipping sector, the BDTI index reported 896 points, a decrease of 3.9% week-on-week, while the BCI index for Capesize vessels increased by 37.0% [25][23] - The express delivery sector saw a year-on-year increase in volume, with a total of 3.972 billion packages collected in the week of November 4-10, 2024 [31] Investment Strategy - The shipping sector is recommended for attention, particularly companies like COSCO Shipping Energy and China Merchants Energy [41] - The logistics sector is highlighted for its favorable e-commerce express delivery landscape, with expectations of price increases during peak seasons [42] - The aviation sector is advised to focus on airlines like Spring Airlines and China Eastern Airlines, which are expected to benefit from the recovery of international flights [47]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the pharmaceutical and biotechnology sector [6]. Core Insights - Recent macroeconomic and pharmaceutical policies signal a positive shift, particularly with the introduction of debt relief and prepayment policies, which are expected to catalyze the stagnant pharmaceutical sector [3][19]. - The medical device sector is anticipated to experience significant improvement in performance, with September showing a year-on-year increase in procurement amounts for medical devices, marking a turning point [21][29]. - The report emphasizes the importance of innovation, recovery, and supportive policies as the three main investment themes for the medium to long term in the pharmaceutical industry [4][11]. Summary by Sections 1. Mid-term Investment Strategy and Suggested Focus Combinations - The pharmaceutical sector can gradually increase allocations, with expectations of excess returns post semi-annual reports [11]. - Key policies include the comprehensive promotion of DRG/DIP, adjustments to the essential drug list, and enhanced efficiency assessments for state-owned enterprises [11]. - The report suggests focusing on demographic trends, import substitution, and the potential for overseas market expansion as key investment drivers [11]. 2. Positive Signals from Incremental Medical Insurance Policies - Major incremental policies have been introduced, including a significant increase in local government debt limits and the establishment of a prepayment system for medical insurance funds [19][20]. - These policies are expected to alleviate cash flow pressures on medical institutions, thereby stimulating demand for pharmaceuticals and medical supplies [20]. 3. Weekly Market Review and Hotspot Tracking (2024.11.11-11.15) - The CITIC Pharmaceutical Index fell by 3.9% during the week, underperforming the CSI 300 Index by 0.6 percentage points [34]. - The pharmaceutical sector has seen an 8.2% decline year-to-date, significantly lagging behind the CSI 300 Index by 23.9 percentage points [34]. - The report highlights the top-performing stocks for the week, including BoShi Optical (+32.09%) and Jingfeng Pharmaceutical (+27.65%) [2]. 4. Medical Device Sector Outlook - The medical device procurement data shows a positive trend, with a 12% year-on-year increase in procurement amounts in September, indicating a recovery in the sector [21]. - The report anticipates that the performance of the medical device sector will significantly improve in Q4 and Q1 due to accelerated procurement processes and the introduction of new products [29][30]. - The report suggests focusing on leading companies in the medical device sector, such as Mindray Medical and United Imaging Healthcare, as they are expected to benefit from these trends [30].

Group 1 - The report highlights strong uncertainty in US-China economic policies, indicating that the current period may not be a decisive window for recovery or liquidity trading [2] - Long-term trends suggest an expansion in the service sector while traditional manufacturing may contract, with initiatives like "Belt and Road" expected to accelerate [2][13] - The report expresses a long-term positive outlook on central state-owned enterprises, the "Belt and Road" initiative, O2O (Online to Offline), semiconductor equipment, and military industry, while mid-term focus is on AI applications [2][13] Group 2 - US inflation data met expectations, with October CPI at 2.6% year-on-year, and core CPI at 3.3%, indicating persistent inflation in core services [12] - In China, retail sales growth improved significantly in October, with a year-on-year increase of 4.8%, driven by strong performance in cosmetics (40.1%), home appliances (39.2%), and sports and entertainment products (26.7%) [13][17] - The report notes a significant recovery in consumption due to policy support, particularly during the "Double Eleven" shopping festival [13] Group 3 - The market experienced a broad decline, with the Shanghai Composite Index dropping by 3.52%, and sectors like finance and real estate seeing substantial losses [18][27] - The report emphasizes the importance of focusing on technology sub-sectors for investment opportunities, as they showed relative resilience compared to other sectors [27][31] - Foreign capital index positions showed a convergence in net short positions for IC and IF, while IM and IH remained stable [38]

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Outperform the Market" [3] Core Viewpoints - The demand for excavators continues to recover, with a year-on-year increase of 4.3% in operating hours for Komatsu excavators in China and a domestic sales increase of 21.6% in October, totaling 8,266 units sold [1][2] - The report highlights the positive impact of fiscal policies aimed at stabilizing the real estate market and stimulating infrastructure investment, which is expected to support the demand for construction machinery [3][4] - Domestic demand is anticipated to improve due to equipment upgrades and environmental policies, while overseas demand is also expected to grow, particularly in markets along the Belt and Road Initiative [4] Summary by Sections Domestic Market Performance - In October, domestic excavator sales reached 8,266 units, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 21.6%, while total excavator sales were 16,791 units, up 15.1% year-on-year [2] - The domestic market is showing signs of recovery, with a focus on replacing old equipment and adhering to environmental regulations [4] International Market Performance - In the first half of 2024, China's construction machinery exports amounted to $25.837 billion, marking a year-on-year increase of 3.38% [4] - The global market for construction machinery is three times larger than the domestic market, with a stable competitive landscape dominated by major players like Caterpillar and Komatsu [4] Policy and Economic Environment - Recent monetary policy adjustments, including a reduction in reserve requirements and interest rates, are expected to enhance liquidity and lower financing costs for businesses [3] - The government is implementing targeted fiscal measures to support the real estate sector and stimulate infrastructure projects, which will likely benefit the construction machinery industry [3][4]