行 华福证券 国防军工 2025 年 06 月 29 日 业 研 究 国防军工 军工本周观点：迎接阅兵 投资要点： 本周核心观点： 行 业 定 期 报 告 6 月 24 日上午，国新办举行新闻发布会介绍，9 月 3 日上午在北京天安门 广场隆重举行纪念中国人民抗日战争暨世界反法西斯战争胜利 80 周年大 会，包括检阅部队。这次阅兵，由徒步方队、装备方队和空中梯队组成： 徒步方队重点展示我军改革重塑后新的军兵种结构布局；装备方队重点展 示我军装备体系建设最新成果，体现我军联合指挥、联合行动、联合保障 的力量运用新模式，反映我国武器装备自主创新能力；空中梯队重点展示 我空中作战力量的体系化水平和快速提升的先进战斗力。在展示新一代传 统武器装备的基础上，也安排部分无人智能、水下作战、网电攻防、高超 声速等新型作战力量参阅，体现我军适应科技发展和战争形态演变、打赢 未来战争的强大能力。 此次新闻发布会带动国防军工指数本周表现较好，本周（6.23-6.27）申万 军工指数（801740）上涨 6.90% ，同期沪深 300 指数上涨 1.95%，相对超 额 4.95pct。 华福证券 证 券 资金层面，本周被动基金规模 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the industry [7] Core Insights - The report highlights the expansion of the largest thermal power base in East China, which is expected to strengthen energy security during the peak summer load period [3][18] - The report notes a record high in new photovoltaic installations in May, alongside significant growth in wind power installations [4][23] - China's waste incineration capacity has been certified as the highest in the world, with a significant increase in operational capacity since 2014 [4][43] Summary by Sections Market Review - From June 23 to June 27, the environmental sector rose by 4.05%, while the water sector increased by 1.88%. The electricity and gas sectors saw declines of 0.11% and 1.15%, respectively, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 1.95% [2][12] Industry Perspectives - The Zhejiang Energy Jiaxing Power Plant's Phase IV Unit 9 has officially commenced operations, increasing the total installed capacity to 6.3 million kW, which will alleviate electricity pressure in the Yangtze River Delta region during peak summer [3][18] - The National Development and Reform Commission anticipates a nationwide peak electricity load increase of approximately 100 million kW during the summer, reaching a historical high of 1.45 billion kW in 2024 [3][19] - In May, new installations of photovoltaic power reached 9,292 MW, marking a year-on-year growth of 388.03% [4][24] - The waste incineration capacity in China has increased from 186,000 tons per day in 2014 to 861,800 tons per day in 2023, with a projected design capacity of 1,166,000 tons per day by 2024 [4][43] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends Jiangsu Guoxin in the thermal power sector, with cautious recommendations for Sheneng Co. and Zhejiang Energy. It suggests attention to Funiu Co. and Huadian International [5] - In the nuclear power sector, it cautiously recommends China National Nuclear Power and China General Nuclear Power [5] - For the green energy sector, it suggests focusing on Three Gorges Energy and Jiangsu New Energy, with cautious attention to Longyuan Power and Zhejiang New Energy [5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the industry [6]. Core Insights - The panoramic camera and action camera segments are still in the early stages of category cultivation, with panoramic cameras offering unique advantages such as capturing 360° panoramic images and enabling "shoot first, compose later" functionality. The rise of short videos globally is expected to drive the growth of the VLOG camera category, which has significant development potential [4]. Summary by Sections 1. Pain Points Addressed by Panoramic Cameras - Panoramic cameras provide a distinct advantage over traditional cameras by capturing three-dimensional space, allowing users to retain more exciting moments without the limitations of traditional camera angles [3][14]. - The current demand for panoramic cameras primarily includes three scenarios: extreme sports like skydiving and skiing, travel situations requiring quick captures, and creative perspective pursuits during filming [27][28]. 2. Market Potential Assessment - The global action camera market is projected to grow from $2.7 billion in 2020 to $6.6 billion by 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 13.5%. The volume of action cameras is expected to increase from 13.4 million units to 29.9 million units during the same period, indicating a strong market expansion [43][46]. - The potential annual sales volume for VLOG cameras is estimated at 40 million units for the sports user segment and 16 million units for content creators, suggesting a robust demand driven by outdoor activities and content creation [54][60]. 3. Channel and Marketing Analysis - The company employs a balanced online and offline sales strategy, with significant contributions from major markets such as China, Europe, and the United States. In 2024, the revenue distribution is expected to be 24% from China, 23% from Europe, and 23% from the U.S. [70][79]. - Marketing efforts include collaborations with professional athletes and international celebrities to enhance brand visibility, alongside engaging users through content challenges that leverage the social media landscape [69][113].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [2][20] Core Views - The report highlights that the company's production capacity is expected to continue to rise in 2024, with a significant improvement in profitability in Q1 2025 [3][4] - The company achieved a revenue of 42 billion yuan in 2024, a slight decrease of 0.91% year-on-year, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 1.44 billion yuan, an increase of 2.55% year-on-year [4] - The report anticipates a revenue of 46.5 billion yuan for 2025, with projected production of 90,000 tons of tin, 125,000 tons of copper, and 131,600 tons of zinc [6][7] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company reported a revenue of 42 billion yuan, with a net profit of 1.44 billion yuan, and a non-recurring net profit of 1.94 billion yuan, reflecting a 40.5% increase year-on-year [4] - For Q1 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 9.73 billion yuan, a 15.8% increase year-on-year, and a net profit of 500 million yuan, a 53.1% increase year-on-year [4][6] Production and Pricing - In 2024, the company produced 84,800 tons of tin, a 6% increase year-on-year, with an average tin price of 248,000 yuan per ton, up 16.9% year-on-year [5] - For Q1 2025, the tin production was 24,200 tons, an 8% increase year-on-year, with an average tin price of 260,800 yuan per ton, a 20% increase year-on-year [6] Profitability Forecast - The report projects net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 to be 2.23 billion yuan, 2.42 billion yuan, and 2.56 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding EPS of 1.35, 1.47, and 1.55 yuan [7]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - Long-term care insurance (LTCI) is expected to generate a trillion-level demand for nursing services, with a focus on the nursing service and equipment rental sectors [2] - By 2050, the number of disabled individuals in China is projected to reach 62 million, leading to a related nursing demand of approximately 1.7 trillion yuan, necessitating the establishment of a national LTCI system [4][8] - The top-level policy design for LTCI is accelerating, with supporting policies being rapidly introduced, indicating that a national system is imminent [4][12] Summary by Sections Long-term Care Insurance Overview - Long-term care services are defined as providing personal care, health care, and social services to disabled individuals over an extended period, aiming to maintain and improve their physiological functions and daily living abilities [4][8] - The proportion of disabled individuals is closely related to the aging population, with projections indicating a significant increase in the disabled population and corresponding care expenditures by 2050 [4][8] Policy Development - Since 2021, annual government work reports have consistently mentioned the promotion of LTCI, with language evolving from "steady progress" to "accelerated establishment" [4][12] - A total of 12 detailed policies have been introduced since 2021, focusing on disability assessment, talent resources, service institutions, and information management, with a noticeable acceleration in policy issuance since 2024 [15] Current Operation of LTCI - As of 2023, the number of individuals covered by LTCI reached 183 million, with a fund income of 24.4 billion yuan and an expenditure of 11.9 billion yuan, indicating substantial room for growth compared to international standards [4][18] - The proportion of individuals receiving benefits from LTCI in China is significantly lower than in countries like Germany, highlighting a considerable potential for growth in coverage [4][18] International Comparison - The report compares the LTCI systems in the U.S., Japan, Germany, and France, noting that the U.S. nursing industry expenditure was approximately 386.5 billion USD in 2022, accounting for 8.7% of total healthcare costs [35][39] - Japan's nursing industry expenditure was about 11 trillion yen in 2021, representing 17.8% of total healthcare costs, with a notable growth rate in community and home care services [47][49] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on the nursing service and equipment rental sectors, as these areas are expected to benefit significantly from the growth of LTCI [4][35]

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Outperform the Market" [7] Core Insights - The report emphasizes the upcoming peak season for tourism and cultural activities, highlighting the potential of combining IP with scenic spots and the ongoing popularity of the "Su Chao" theme in Jiangsu [3][4] - The report suggests focusing on brands with high terminal store efficiency and significant expansion potential in the gold and jewelry sector, as well as the growing demand for personal care products driven by innovation and emotional branding [5][6] - The medical beauty sector is expected to see market share gains among leading institutions due to refined operations and the upcoming release of new products in Q3 [5][6] Summary by Sections 1. Duty-Free and Scenic Areas - The tourism market in Hainan is thriving, with a 62% year-on-year increase in overall bookings for the summer of 2025 [11] - China Duty Free Group is expanding its presence in Macau with a new store opening [11] - Investment suggestions include focusing on duty-free operators and their city store openings, particularly China Duty Free, Wangfujing, and Lingnan Holdings [11] 2. Trendy Toys - The trendy toy sector is experiencing short-term volatility due to regulatory risks and price fluctuations in the secondary market, but long-term growth is anticipated as China's cultural products expand internationally [19] - In the first five months of 2025, the domestic online sales of trendy toys reached approximately 2.754 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 61% [19][22] 3. Hotels - The hotel sector is seeing fluctuations in RevPAR due to the impact of the Dragon Boat Festival holiday, with a notable year-on-year decline in performance metrics [36] - Supply growth remains stable, primarily driven by lower-tier markets [40] 4. Education - The number of high school graduates is expected to remain high, maintaining competitive pressure in the education sector [42] - The number of college graduates is projected to reach 12.22 million in 2025, increasing demand for vocational training and exam preparation services [45] 5. Medical Beauty and Cosmetics - The medical beauty sector is recovering, with a focus on product innovation and market share expansion among leading companies [47] - The beauty sector is expected to see a rebound in sales during the 618 shopping festival, with total online sales reaching 855.6 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 15.2% [53][58] 6. Gold and Jewelry - Gold prices remain high, with retail sales in the gold and jewelry sector increasing by 21.8% year-on-year in May 2025 [82] - Investment recommendations include brands with strong terminal store performance and expansion potential, such as Chao Hong Ji and Lai Shen Tong Ling [86]

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Outperform the Market" [7] Core Viewpoints - The report indicates that the real estate development investment in China from January to May 2025 was 3.6 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 10.7%. The new construction area was 230 million square meters, down 22.8% year-on-year, and the completed area was 180 million square meters, down 17.3% year-on-year. The sales area of new commercial housing was 350 million square meters, a decrease of 2.9% year-on-year, with residential sales down 2.6% year-on-year. The sales amount of new commercial housing was 3.4 trillion yuan, down 3.8% year-on-year, with residential sales down 2.8% year-on-year [2][12] - The report highlights that various cities are implementing policies to support the real estate market, including loan issuance for urban renewal projects and adjustments to housing policies to ease purchasing conditions. These measures are expected to enhance market expectations and stabilize the real estate sector [2][12] - In the short term, the report emphasizes the pressure for stable growth and the need for stronger policy support for the real estate market. In the medium to long term, it suggests that the opening of the interest rate reduction channel in Europe and the U.S. may provide more room for China's monetary and fiscal policies, which could further stabilize the real estate market [2][12] Summary by Sections High-Frequency Data - As of June 20, 2025, the average price of bulk P.O 42.5 cement in China was 367.1 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.3% week-on-week, and down 3.5% year-on-year. The average price of glass (5.00mm) was 1180.0 yuan/ton, down 0.7% week-on-week, and down 28.6% year-on-year [3][21] Sector Review - The report notes that the Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.51%, and the Shenzhen Composite Index dropped by 1.6%. The building materials sector index decreased by 1.42%. Among sub-sectors, fiberglass manufacturing increased by 2.23%, while cement manufacturing fell by 2.2% [4][56] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on three main investment lines: 1. High-quality companies benefiting from stock renovation, such as Weixing New Materials, Beixin Building Materials, and Tubao [5] 2. Undervalued stocks with long-term alpha attributes, such as Sankeshu, Dongfang Yuhong, and Jianlang Hardware [5] 3. Leading cyclical building materials companies with bottoming fundamentals, such as Huaxin Cement, Conch Cement, China Jushi, and Qibin Group [5]

Core Insights - The report maintains a strong market rating for the biopharmaceutical industry, particularly focusing on in vivo CAR-T therapies, highlighting the competitive landscape and potential investment opportunities in companies like Cloudbreak and CSPC [1][2] - In vivo CAR-T therapies are expected to revolutionize cell therapy paradigms, with several biotech firms, including Capstan Therapeutics and EsoBiotec, initiating clinical trials [2][31] - The global sales of autologous CAR-T therapies are projected to exceed $4.5 billion in 2024, with significant growth potential despite challenges such as complex manufacturing processes and high costs [11][12] In Vivo CAR-T Therapy - In vivo CAR-T therapy simplifies the manufacturing process and reduces costs, potentially making treatments more accessible and affordable compared to traditional methods [20][21] - The core challenge lies in the effective and safe delivery of CAR constructs to target T cells, with two main technological routes: lentiviral vectors and RNA delivery systems [31][28] - Companies like AstraZeneca and AbbVie are actively investing in in vivo CAR-T platforms, indicating a strong interest from major pharmaceutical players [30][29] Market Trends and Strategies - The report identifies key investment strategies, recommending a focus on leading companies and those with promising clinical data, particularly in the context of upcoming industry catalysts [2][59] - Notable companies to watch include BeiGene, Innovent Biologics, and CSPC, which are expected to drive growth through innovative drug development and commercialization efforts [2][61] - The report emphasizes the importance of clinical data and commercialization as key drivers for the success of innovative drugs in the market [2][59] Company Highlights - Cloudbreak has developed a fully integrated mRNA platform with clinical validation, focusing on multiple cancer and autoimmune-related mRNA therapeutics [50][54] - CSPC's SYS6020, an mRNA-LNP based CAR-T therapy, has entered clinical trials, showcasing advancements in safety and efficacy compared to traditional CAR-T products [56][58] - Capstan Therapeutics has reported promising preclinical data for its mRNA-based in vivo CAR-T therapies, indicating strong potential for future clinical applications [44][49]

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Outperform the Market" indicating that the overall return of the industry is expected to exceed the market benchmark index by more than 5% in the next 6 to 12 months [52]. Core Insights - The semiconductor materials sector is accelerating domestic production, with rapid expansion in downstream wafer factories, highlighting the competitive advantages of leading companies [4]. - The report emphasizes the importance of the photoresist segment as a critical core area for self-sufficiency in China, with a positive outlook for Tongcheng New Materials in terms of import substitution [4]. - The demand for high-performance materials is expected to increase as domestic manufacturing upgrades continue, leading to rapid growth in the new materials industry [4]. - The report identifies key companies to watch, including Huate Gas, Anji Technology, and Dinglong Co., which are positioned to benefit from the ongoing industry upgrades and innovations [4]. Market Overview - The Wind New Materials Index closed at 3610.81 points, down 1.18% week-on-week [3][9]. - Among six sub-industries, the semiconductor materials index decreased by 0.3%, while the display device materials index increased by 1.09% [3][9]. - The lithium battery index rose by 2.23%, indicating a positive trend in that segment [3][9]. Recent Industry Highlights - SJ Semiconductor Corporation's IPO guidance has entered the acceptance phase, indicating progress in the capital market [4][27]. - Several Chinese automotive manufacturers are set to achieve 100% localization of chips by 2026, a significant increase from the current target of 25% [4][27]. - Mitsubishi Chemical announced the relocation of its PMMA factory in China to enhance its market share in the PMMA sector [4][28]. - Dingji Technology successfully launched a pilot production line for high-end POE materials, paving the way for future production capacity [4][31].

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Outperform the Market" [5][63]. Core Viewpoints - The report indicates a dual weakness in domestic supply and demand, with major manufacturers maintaining price stability, leading to a stabilization in antimony prices [5][47]. - The report suggests focusing on companies like Hunan Gold and Huaxi Nonferrous Metals, which are positioned to benefit from the dual drivers of gold and antimony resources [5][56]. Summary by Sections 1. Upstream Antimony Ore - In May 2025, antimony ore imports were 2,322 tons, a decrease of 1,917 tons (-45%) month-on-month, but an increase of 159 tons (+7.3%) year-on-year. Cumulative imports from January to May were 16,092 tons, down 5,201 tons (-24%) year-on-year [3][11]. - The average import price for antimony ore in May was $8,205 per ton, up 39% month-on-month and 69% year-on-year [11]. 2. Midstream Antimony Ingots - Antimony ingot production in May was 6,356 tons, an increase of 4.2% month-on-month but a decrease of 2.2% year-on-year. Cumulative production from January to May was 32,000 tons, up 4% (+1,203 tons) year-on-year [20][23]. - There were no exports of antimony ingots in May, with cumulative exports from January to May totaling 247 tons, down 84% year-on-year [23]. 3. Midstream Antimony Oxide - Antimony oxide production in May was 7,850 tons, a month-on-month increase of 21.3% but a year-on-year decrease of 12.5%. Cumulative production from January to May was 35,000 tons, down 19% year-on-year [4][27]. - Exports in May were 159 tons, a decrease of 798 tons (-83%) month-on-month and 3,087 tons (-95%) year-on-year. Cumulative exports from January to May were 4,564 tons, down 9,504 tons (-68%) year-on-year [29]. 4. Downstream Demand - In May, the production of sodium antimonate was 2,475 tons, up 21% month-on-month but down 21% year-on-year. Cumulative production from January to May was 10,267 tons, down 45% year-on-year [34]. - The production of photovoltaic glass in May was 2.47 million tons, an increase of 7.9% month-on-month but a decrease of 3.2% year-on-year. Cumulative production from January to May was 10.42 million tons, down 9.2% year-on-year [42]. 5. Supply and Prices - As of June 19, 2025, the domestic price of antimony ingots was 202,500 yuan per ton, an increase of 47,000 yuan (+30%) year-on-year. International prices remained above $60,000 per ton [47][50]. - The report notes that some manufacturers are adopting price support strategies, with the price range for 1 antimony ingots maintained between 180,000-200,000 yuan per ton [50].