公 华福证券 火力发电 司 研 究 公 司 财 江苏国信（002608.SZ） 2Q25 扣非归母净利两位数增长，主营业务盈利 向好 投资要点： 1H25 能源收入同比减少 12%，能源板块业绩增长 16%：1H25 公司上 网电量同比减少 5.21%，含税平均上网电价同比下降 4.59%，能源板块收入 同比下降 11.95%。其中，江苏燃煤机组上网电量同比增长 2.21%（24 年底 和 25 年 4 月国信滨海港电厂共计新增投产两台百万机组，新增机组投产贡 献新增量），电价下降 39.30 元/MWH，对应降幅 8.4%(25 年江苏年度双边 下降 40.49 元/MWH，对应降幅 8.94%)。受益于 1H25 市场煤价下行，公司 能源板块盈利有所增长，1H25 利润总额同比增长 16.29%。此外，国信沙 洲首台 100 万千瓦机组于 7 月 8 日正式投产运营，预计第二台年内投产； 国信马洲一控一参两台机组预计今年年末投产；25 年 6 月核准的国信扬电 三期项目预计 27 年投产，未来公司的控股火电装机将进一步增加。 华福证券 证 券 稳定的金融股权投资收益为公司奠定了坚强的展业基础：1H2025 ...

公 华福证券 火力发电 2025 年 08 月 26 日 司 研 究 皖能电力（000543.SZ） 2Q25 归母净利增速转正，毛利率环比修复 投资要点： 公 事件：公司发布 2025 年半年度报告。1H2025 公司实现营收 131.85 亿 元，同比减少 5.83%；归属于母公司股东的净利润 10.82 亿元，同比增长 1.05%。分季度看，2Q2025 单季度营收 67.66 亿元，同比减少 3.57%；归属 于母公司股东的净利润 6.38 亿元，同比增长 3.26%。 司 财 报 点 评 1H25 营收降幅 6%，归母净利润同比微增 1%：1H2025 公司营业收入 下降 5.83%，我们认为或主要系量价影响：1）1H2025 安徽火电发电量同 比下降 7.9%；火电利用小时数为 2190 小时，同比减少 166 小时，上半年 公司存量火电机组发电量下降，但是会有增量机组电量缓冲（2024-2025 年先后投产了长丰燃气电厂、英格玛电厂和钱营孜电厂）。2）2025 年安 徽省双边协商电量电价 412.97 元/兆瓦时，同比 2024 年下降 23 元/兆瓦时， 对应降幅 5.35%。1H2025 公 ...

公 司 华福证券 医药流通 2025 年 08 月 26 日 国药股份（600511.SH） 买入（维持评级） 研 究 公 司 财 报 点 评 2025 半年报点评：收入增长稳健，应收账款周转 率有所改善 投资要点： 事件：公司公布 2025 半年报，报告期内公司实现收入 256.34 亿元（+3.54%）， 归母净利润 9.49 亿元（-5.2%），扣非归母净利润 9.32 亿元（-7.14%）。 其中Q2实现收入129.21亿元（+2.27%），实现归母净利润4.9亿元（-9.52%）， 扣非归母净利润 4.85 亿元（-10.98%）。 母公司收入增长稳健，部分子公司影响归母净利润。 25H1 母公司实现收入 120.04 亿元（+12.5%），实现净利润 7.59 亿元 （+1.15%），其中 25Q2 实现收入 60.66 亿元（+8.99%），实现净利润 4.22 亿元（-2.93%）。报告期内公司的部分子公司收入和利润波动较大，其中北 京华鸿收入 29.9 亿元（-5.2%），净利润 0.32 亿元（+11.4%）、北京天星收 入 25.2 亿元（-11.2%），净利润 0.36 亿元（-23. ...

华福证券 乖宝宠物（301498.SZ） 25H1 业绩点评：自主品牌持续景气高增 ➢ 公司发布 2025 年半年度报告。2025H1 年公司实现营业总收入 32.21 亿元，同比+32.72%，归母净利润 3.78 亿元，同比+22.55%，扣非归母净利 润 3.67 亿元，同比+26.46%。单季度来看，25Q2 实现营业总收入 17.41 亿 元，同比+30.99%，归母净利润 1.74 亿元，同比+8.54%，扣非归母净利润 1.69 亿元，同比+10.43%。利润分配：向全体股东每 10 股派发现金红利 2.5 元（含税），送红股 0 股（含税），不以公积金转增股本。 ➢ 自有品牌表现持续靓丽，直销渠道占比明显提升。分业务来看，自有 品牌：麦富迪品牌：精准锁定年轻消费群体并布局高端犬猫粮市场，屡登 电商销售榜首；高端副品牌霸弗天然粮迅速崛起，24 年双十一期间全网销 售额同比增长 150%；弗列加特品牌：以"鲜肉精准营养"的创新研发技术 成果为核心，满足细分喂养场景需求，成功推出了"大红桶冻干"、"高机 能烘焙粮"两大明星系列。久谦数据显示 25H1 线上猫狗食品麦富迪品牌销 售额+26%，弗列加特 ...

司 研 究 永艺股份（603600.SH） 全球化布局韧性凸显，下半年需求回暖可期 投资要点： 公 司 财 公司发布 2025 年半年度报告。25H1 公司实现营收 21.89 亿元，同比 +6.66%，归母净利润 1.33 亿元，同比+4.92%，扣非归母净利润 1.29 亿元， 同比+2.74%。单季度看，25Q2 实现营收 11.78 亿元，同比-1.42%，归母净 利润 0.75 亿元，同比-10.34%，扣非归母 0.75 亿元，同比-9.36%。Q2 同比 下滑主要受行业对美出口疲软及同期高基数影响。 报 点 评 全球化布局成效凸显，大客户战略持续深化。分区域来看，25H1 公司 外销/内销营收分别为 16.42/5.41 亿元，同比分别增长 3.7%/15.4%。受新一 轮关税战影响，美国市场家具类产品终端需求走弱，叠加关税政策不确定 性使渠道商采购备库更加谨慎，同时订单加快从中国向外转移，中国办公 椅出口额同比-7.22%，其中对美国的出口额同比-29.37%。面对贸易摩擦与 产能结构性转移，公司大客户战略与前瞻性的全球化产能布局构筑了坚实 的护城河，一方面，公司始终坚持"数一数二"市场战略， ...

华福证券 塑料包装 2025 年 08 月 26 日 公 司 研 究 永新股份（002014.SZ） 经营稳健外销高增，中期高分红股息价值强化 投资要点： 公 公司发布 2025 年半年度报告。25H1 公司实现营收 17.46 亿元，同比 +5.78%，归母净利润 1.83 亿元，同比+1.72%，扣非归母净利润 1.73 亿元， 同比+1.93%。单季度来看，25Q2 公司营收 8.98 亿元，同比+10.07%，归母 净利润 0.94 亿元，同比+0.65%，扣非归母 0.89 亿元，同比+0.89%。 司 财 报 点 评 薄膜新材料增长势能充足，海外业务加速扩张。1）分产品看，25H1 彩 印 复 合 包 材 / 塑 料 软 包 薄 膜 / 油 墨 / 真 空 镀 铝 包 材 营 收 分 别 为 12.19/3.69/0.74/0.35 亿元，同比分别+2.6%/+20.3%/+3.8%/+22.3%。薄膜新 材料增长靓丽，公司聚焦于高阻隔膜、单一材质可回收膜（BOPE）等高附 加值、差异化产品，积极推进 3 万吨双向拉伸多功能膜和 2.2 万吨新型功 能膜等新产能建设，预计 2026 年起陆续投产。 ...

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Outperform the Market" indicating that the overall return of the industry is expected to exceed the market benchmark index by more than 5% in the next 6 months [16]. Core Insights - The report highlights the emergence of the AI video generation era, with Google Veo3 leading the way and enhancing the YouTube video ecosystem [2][3]. - Google Veo3 has generated over 70 million videos globally as of July 30, supporting up to 4K resolution and simplifying video production with integrated audio generation capabilities [3]. - The user-generated content (UGC) video ecosystem is thriving, with a significant increase in AI-generated content channels on YouTube, contributing to an average of 500 hours of new videos uploaded every minute [4]. - YouTube's active user base exceeds 2.5 billion, with daily viewing hours surpassing 1 billion, and ad revenue in Q2 2025 increased by 13.1% year-on-year to $9.8 billion [4]. Summary by Sections Industry Dynamics - The AI-driven content creation tools are significantly improving content creation efficiency and lowering barriers to entry, leading to a surge in AI-generated and derivative content [5]. - The global piracy monitoring agency MUSO reported that global visits to piracy websites reached 216 billion in 2024, highlighting the growing issue of copyright infringement [5]. Company Analysis - The report identifies the company as a leading SaaS provider for copyright management, benefiting from the increasing demand for copyright protection in the AIGC era [6]. - The company's subscription business is projected to grow by 27% year-on-year to HKD 1.1 billion in 2024, while value-added services are expected to increase by 15% to HKD 1.3 billion [6]. - The launch of the AIGC video platform DreamMaker and the MAX copyright trading platform aims to provide comprehensive services from content generation to copyright protection and monetization [6].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a maintained outlook [4][15]. Core Views - The report highlights strong growth in e-commerce and product upgrades, particularly for the "Cold Acid Spirit" brand, which shows significant brand momentum [2][6]. - The company achieved a revenue of 840 million yuan in the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 19.7%, with a net profit of 85 million yuan, up 17.6% year-on-year [6][8]. - The report anticipates continued growth in net profit for 2025-2027, with expected figures of 200 million yuan, 260 million yuan, and 310 million yuan respectively, reflecting growth rates of 25.8%, 26.5%, and 21.0% [6][8]. Financial Data and Valuation - Projected revenue for 2023A is 1,376 million yuan, with a growth rate of 5%, increasing to 2,485 million yuan by 2027E, with a growth rate of 16% [3][8]. - Net profit is expected to grow from 141 million yuan in 2023A to 310 million yuan in 2027E, with a growth rate of 5% in 2023A and 21% in 2027E [3][8]. - Earnings per share (EPS) is projected to rise from 0.82 yuan in 2023A to 1.80 yuan in 2027E, with a corresponding decrease in price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio from 54.0 to 24.6 over the same period [3][8]. Product and Channel Performance - The company has seen significant growth in its product categories, with adult toothpaste and electric oral care products showing year-on-year increases of 23% and 54.9% respectively in H1 2025 [6][8]. - E-commerce sales have surged by 86.6% in H1 2025, contributing to a 36% share of total sales, indicating a successful channel strategy [6][8]. - The overall gross margin improved to 52.6% in H1 2025, up 5.7 percentage points year-on-year, driven by product upgrades and effective marketing strategies [6][8].

华福证券 证 券 研 盈利预测与投资建议：结合公司当期业绩，我们调整盈利预测，预计 公司 25-27 年归母净利润为 0.78/0.93/1.08 亿元（25-26 年前值为 0.88/1.05 亿元），分别同增 22%/18%/17%，对应当前股价 PE 分别为 37/31/27 倍，对 应维持"买入"评级。 究 报 风险提示：国内需求恢复不及预期、原材料价格波动、海外业务拓展不及 预期、产能投放不及预期、汇率波动风险、食品安全风险 公 司 研 究 日辰股份（603755.SH） 冷冻烘焙并表贡献增量，控费得当盈利能力提升 公 司 事件：公司披露 2024 年半年度业绩：25 年 H1 公司实现营收 2.04 亿元， 同比+8.63%；归母净利润 0.35 亿元，同比+22.64%；扣非归母净利润 0.35 亿元，同比+27.73%。其中，25Q2 公司实现营收 1.02 亿元，同比+6.85%； 归母净利润 0.18 亿元，同比+11.04%；扣非归母净利润 0.17 亿元，同比 +14.15%。 财 报 点 评 新品与渠道双轮驱动，市场开拓成果显著。分品类看，25Q2 公司酱汁 类调味料/粉体类调味料/ ...

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Strongly Outperforming the Market" [96] Core Insights - The report highlights the "Small Happiness" consumption trend, indicating that new consumption does not rely on overall economic growth but rather on the expansion of consumption behaviors among niche groups [3][12] - The tourism sector, particularly in Changbai Mountain, has seen significant growth, with July 2025 visitor numbers reaching 810,200, a 37.8% year-on-year increase, marking a historical high for the month [4][51] - The duty-free sector is expected to benefit from the upcoming Hainan Free Trade Port's closure, which will allow visa-free entry for individuals from 85 countries, significantly increasing the user base for duty-free shopping [4][45] - The report emphasizes the potential of the "trendy play" sector, supported by recent policies aimed at stimulating consumption and industry regulation, which may favor compliant leading enterprises [5][53] - In the education sector, advancements in AI+ education are noted, with several companies launching AI-driven educational products, indicating a potential revenue surge for key players [6][63] - The medical beauty industry is undergoing optimization through refined operations, with leading institutions expected to capture more market share as new products are launched [6][73] Summary by Sections New Consumption - New consumption is characterized by emotional value rather than cost-effectiveness, with a shift from heavy asset allocation to frequent "small happiness" purchases [3][12] - The youth demographic (ages 15-24) is projected to drive consumption trends as they enter the labor market, while the adult demographic's influence is expected to diminish [15] Duty-Free and Tourism - The duty-free industry is poised for growth with the Hainan Free Trade Port's upcoming closure, enhancing the attractiveness of the region for international tourists [42][45] - Changbai Mountain's tourism data indicates a strong recovery and growth potential, particularly in the summer season [4][51] Trendy Play - The trendy play sector is expected to benefit from consumption policies and industry self-regulation, with long-term prospects for cultural products expanding overseas [5][53] Education - The AI+ education sector is gaining traction, with several companies launching innovative products that are expected to see significant revenue growth [6][63] Medical Beauty - The medical beauty industry is experiencing a shift towards refined operations, with new product launches expected to enhance market dynamics [6][73]