Investment Rating - The report maintains a "stronger than the market" rating for the defense and military industry [5] Core Viewpoints - The report emphasizes the strong radiation effect of commercial aerospace, highlighting significant developments in the sector, including the approval of satellite frequency resources and the construction of additional satellites by SpaceX [37][38] - The report notes that the military industry index has outperformed the broader market, with a 13.63% increase compared to a 2.79% rise in the Shanghai Composite Index during the same period [10][37] - The report suggests that the commercial aerospace sector will continue to drive asset value reassessment across various industries, particularly in the rocket supply chain and satellite networks [39] Summary by Sections 1. Weekly Market Review - The military industry index rose by 13.63% from January 5 to January 9, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 10.84 percentage points [10][16] - The aerospace sector showed a significant increase of 34.57%, while the low-altitude economy sector performed relatively flat [21][24] 2. Key Developments in the Industry - The report highlights the approval of plans to accelerate the construction of advanced manufacturing in Guangzhou, which includes support for satellite constellation projects [37] - The report mentions the successful launch of SpaceX's Falcon 9 rocket, which deployed an Earth observation satellite [41] 3. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on specific companies within the rocket sector, overseas commercial aerospace, satellite technology, nuclear fusion, stealth materials, deep-sea technology, engines, unmanned systems, AI, aircraft, and land equipment [40]

Group 1 - The report indicates that the liquidity environment remains loose despite a significant net withdrawal of 1.655 trillion yuan in OMO operations during the week of January 3 to January 9, 2026, with the DR001 rate staying below 1.3% [2][15][31] - The central bank's recent meetings suggest a shift in attitude towards more flexible monetary policy tools, including potential rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio adjustments to support economic growth [4][34][33] - The upcoming government bond issuance is expected to increase significantly, with a net supply of approximately 1.3 trillion yuan anticipated in January, which may lead to a rise in the central bank's bond purchases [35][36][55] Group 2 - The interbank lending market shows a slight decrease in Shibor rates, with the 1-year Shibor rate falling to 1.65% as of January 9, 2026, indicating a trend of declining borrowing costs [9][63] - The issuance of interbank certificates of deposit has seen a net repayment of 156.4 billion yuan, with the total issuance rising to 1.764 trillion yuan, reflecting a shift in funding dynamics among different types of banks [10][68] - The report highlights that the success rate of issuance for state-owned banks has improved, while other bank types have seen a decline, indicating varying levels of demand and market confidence [69]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the basic chemical industry, highlighting strong performance in various sub-sectors and suggesting potential investment opportunities in specific companies [3][4][5]. Core Insights - The restructuring of China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation (Sinopec) and China Aviation Oil (China National Aviation Fuel) is a significant development, marking the first major state-owned enterprise restructuring in 2026, which is expected to enhance the production and application of sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) [3]. - The domestic urea market has shown signs of recovery, with prices rising to over 1700 RMB per ton, a 9% increase from the lowest point in October 2025, driven by steady demand and reduced supply [3][4]. - The report identifies several investment themes, including the competitiveness of domestic tire manufacturers, the potential recovery in consumer electronics, and the resilience of certain cyclical industries [4][5][7]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 3.82%, the ChiNext Index by 3.89%, and the CSI 300 Index by 2.79%. The CITIC Basic Chemical Index increased by 5.39%, and the Shenwan Chemical Index by 5.03% [13][16]. - The top-performing sub-sectors included rubber additives (17.27%), electronic chemicals (15.08%), and modified plastics (9.87%) [16]. Key Industry Dynamics - Sinopec and China Aviation Oil's restructuring aims to streamline operations and enhance the production of SAF, positioning the companies for future growth in a low-carbon economy [3]. - The urea market is expected to continue its upward trend, with a forecast for moderate price increases in the near future due to favorable supply-demand dynamics [3][4]. Investment Themes - **Tire Industry**: Domestic tire manufacturers are becoming increasingly competitive, with recommended stocks including Sailun Tire, Senqcia, General Tire, and Linglong Tire [4]. - **Consumer Electronics**: A gradual recovery in consumer electronics is anticipated, with upstream material companies expected to benefit. Recommended stocks include Dongcai Technology, Stik, Lite-On Optoelectronics, and Ruian New Materials [4]. - **Cyclical Industries**: Focus on industries with strong resilience and inventory destocking, particularly in phosphate and fluorine chemicals, as well as polyester filament [5][7]. - **Vitamin Supply**: Attention is drawn to vitamin products due to supply disruptions from BASF, which may lead to market imbalances [7].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the industry [4] Core Insights - In January, international pulp prices increased, with Arauco softwood pulp rising by $10 to $710 per ton and hardwood pulp by $20 to $590 per ton, providing cost support and potential stabilization in paper prices [3][5] - The report highlights the upcoming announcement from the U.S. regarding the tariff decision related to Trump's global tariff measures, which could impact the export chain [3][5] - E-commerce performance in December for personal care products showed overall weakness, with some emerging brands maintaining rapid growth [3] Summary by Sections Export Chain - The U.S. is expected to announce the tariff decision next week, with a predicted 28% chance of supporting current tariffs. If rejected, tariffs imposed in 2025 may be lifted [5] - The postponement of tariffs on upholstered furniture and cabinets until 2027 may alleviate CPI increases in the U.S. and support demand recovery [5] - Companies like Dream Lily and Fashion Bed Group are expanding into the Canadian market, while Zhongxin Co. plans to establish a factory in the U.S. to enhance global competitiveness [5] Home Furnishing - The furniture manufacturing industry's revenue from January to November 2025 decreased by 9.1% year-on-year, with a widening decline in residential sales [5] - IKEA announced the closure of several stores in China while shifting focus to smaller stores and online channels [5] - The report suggests that despite the ongoing adjustment period in the home furnishing and real estate sectors, valuations are at historical lows, presenting potential investment opportunities [5] Paper and Packaging - As of January 9, 2026, prices for various paper types showed mixed trends, with some prices remaining stable while others decreased [5] - The report recommends focusing on companies with strong production capacity and fiber supply, such as Nine Dragons Paper and Shanying International [5] Consumer Goods - Sales growth for sanitary napkins on major e-commerce platforms showed a decline, while some brands on Douyin experienced rapid growth [5] - The report highlights strategic collaborations and product launches by companies like Morning Glory and the potential for recovery in the stationery sector [5] New Tobacco Products - New regulations regarding non-combustible nicotine products will take effect in April 2026, indicating a shift towards a more concentrated market structure [5] - Companies like Smoore International are expected to benefit from the global rollout of their products [5] Textile and Apparel - The textile and apparel sector underperformed the market, with a reported increase in net profit for companies like Bailong Oriental, driven by strong order volumes [5]

行 业 研 医药生物 2026 年 01 月 11 日 医药生物 究 医药科技开门红，小核酸 FXIa 即将催化（建议 关注瑞博、靖因） 投资要点： 行 业 定 期 报 告 行情回顾：本周（2026 年 1 月 5 日- 2026 年 1 月 9 日）中信医药指数上涨 7.7%，跑赢沪深 300 指数 4.9 pct，在中信一级行业分类中排名第 5 位；2026 年初至今中信医药生物板块指数上涨 7.7%，跑赢沪深 300 指数 4.9 pct，在中 信行业分类中排名第 5 位。本周涨幅前五的个股为：创新医疗（+61.0%）、三 博脑科（+56.2%）、美好医疗（+56.1%）、前沿生物（+56.0%）、悦康药业 （+40.6%）。 FXIa 抑制剂即将迎来催化，小核酸方向建议关注瑞博、靖因：血栓性 疾病全球每年发病人群高达 2670 万，目前针对血栓性疾病的抗凝药物主要 包括华法林、肝素和直接口服剂，全球抗凝血药物市场预计在 2024 年高达 330 亿美金。但是现有抗凝血药物的作用是非选择性的，既影响凝血的内 源性途径，也影响外源性途径以及共同下游途径，这种治疗方法不可避免 地会损害正常应对损伤的止血反应 ...

Group 1 - The report highlights the upcoming sales peak for gold and jewelry during the Spring Festival, with promotional activities already initiated by major brands, indicating a potential boost in sales due to the combined effect of Valentine's Day and the Spring Festival [11][12] - The gold price has been steadily increasing since 2026, which is favorable for terminal sales in the gold and jewelry sector, as consumers tend to buy when prices are rising gradually rather than experiencing sharp fluctuations [11][12] - Major brands are offering significant discounts and promotional activities to attract consumers, which is crucial for achieving strong sales during this peak season [12] Group 2 - The home appliance sector has seen a weekly increase of 2.2%, with specific segments like kitchen appliances and small appliances showing even higher growth rates of 3.1% and 1.8% respectively [17] - Raw material prices have risen, with LME copper and aluminum increasing by 3.89% and 6.5% respectively, which could impact the cost structure of home appliance manufacturers [17] - The textile and apparel sector also experienced a weekly increase of 2.65%, with cotton prices rising by 2.21%, indicating a positive trend in the textile market [21]

Fixed Income - The report indicates that credit spreads have narrowed across the board, demonstrating resilience in credit despite rising interest rates. During the week from January 4 to January 9, government bond yields generally increased, with 1Y, 3Y, and 10Y government bonds rising by 3 basis points (BP), while the 5Y bond rose by 4 BP and the 7Y bond by 2 BP. In contrast, credit bonds outperformed government bonds, with 1Y AA+ and above credit bond yields decreasing by 2 BP, while other grades increased by 1 BP. For 3Y AAA and AA grades, yields remained stable, while other grades decreased by 1-2 BP. The 5Y AA+ and above grades saw yields rise by 1 BP, while other grades increased by 3 BP. The 7Y AAA grade yields remained stable, while other grades decreased by 2 BP. The 10Y AAA credit bonds decreased by 1 BP, with other grades remaining stable. Overall, credit spreads narrowed, with 1Y AA+ and above credit spreads decreasing by 5 BP, and other grades down by 2 BP. For 3Y, spreads decreased by 3-5 BP across grades, while for 5Y, AA+ and above spreads decreased by 3 BP, and other grades down by 1 BP. The 7Y AAA grade spreads decreased by 2 BP, with other grades down by 4 BP, and for 10Y, spreads decreased by 3-4 BP across grades [3][9][20]. City Investment Bonds - The report notes that city investment bond spreads mostly decreased by 3-4 BP. The overall credit spread for AAA-rated platforms decreased by 3 BP, while AA and AA+ platforms saw a 4 BP decrease. By administrative level, provincial platform credit spreads generally decreased by 3 BP, while city and county-level platform spreads decreased by 4 BP. Specifically, AAA-rated spreads mostly decreased by 3-4 BP, with Inner Mongolia down by 2 BP, and Yunnan, Hainan, and Gansu down by 5-6 BP. AA+ rated platforms mostly saw decreases of 3-5 BP, with Xinjiang and Guizhou down by 1-2 BP, and Ningxia and Gansu down by 6-7 BP. AA-rated platforms mostly decreased by 4-5 BP, with Shaanxi down by 3 BP and Tianjin down by 6 BP [4][13][16]. Industry Bonds - The report highlights that while most industry bond spreads decreased, real estate bond spreads continued to widen. Specifically, the spreads for central state-owned enterprise real estate bonds widened slightly by 1-3 BP, while mixed-ownership real estate bonds saw a significant increase of 702 BP. In contrast, private enterprise real estate bond spreads decreased by 30 BP. Notable changes include Longfor's spread decreasing by 6 BP, CIFI's increasing by 55 BP, Vanke's decreasing by 974 BP, Midea's decreasing by 4 BP, Huafa's increasing by 17 BP, and Poly's increasing by 5 BP. Additionally, spreads for coal bonds decreased by 2-3 BP across grades, while steel and chemical bonds saw a decrease of 3 BP [20][21]. Perpetual Bonds - The report indicates that the spreads for secondary capital bonds and perpetual bonds have significantly narrowed, with yields for 1Y secondary capital bonds decreasing by 2-3 BP and perpetual bonds down by 3-4 BP, compressing spreads by 5-6 BP. For 3Y, AA+ and above secondary bonds saw yields decrease by 1 BP, while AA secondary bonds and all grades of perpetual bonds saw yields decrease by 1-2 BP, compressing spreads by 4-5 BP. In the 5Y category, AAA- secondary capital bond yields increased by 1 BP, AA+ remained stable, and AA decreased by 1 BP, with perpetual bond yields remaining stable and spreads compressing by 3-5 BP [5][25]. Excess Spreads - The report notes that the excess spread for industry AAA-rated 3Y perpetual bonds remained stable at 14.84 BP, positioned at the 40.79% percentile since 2015. The 5Y perpetual bond excess spread slightly decreased by 0.01 BP to 13.20 BP, at the 32.21% percentile. Conversely, the excess spread for city investment AAA-rated 3Y perpetual bonds increased by 1.93 BP to 4.64 BP, at the 3.74% percentile, while the 5Y excess spread increased by 1.52 BP to 10.92 BP, at the 18.64% percentile [27][28].

行 业 研 究 4022 煤炭 2026 年 01 月 10 日 供给再迎收紧，煤价反弹进行时 投资要点： 动力煤 行 业 定 期 报 告 截至 2026 年 1 月 9 日，秦港 5500K 动力末煤平仓价 699 元/吨， 周环比+17 元/吨，内蒙产地价持平、山西产地价持平、陕西产地价小 涨。截至 2026 年 1 月 9 日动力煤 462 家样本矿山日均产量为 545.2 万 吨，环比+49.4 万吨，年同比-7.1%。本周电厂日耗小涨，电厂库存小 跌，秦港库存大跌，截至 1 月 5 日，动力煤库存指数为 187.6（-12.6）。 非电方面，甲醇、尿素开工率分别为 91.4%（+1.1pct）和 83.2%（+2.9pct）， 仍处于历史同期偏高水平。 焦煤 截至 1 月 9 日，京唐港主焦煤库提价 1620 元/吨，周环比持平，山 西、河南、安徽产地价格持平。截至 1 月 9 日，523 家样本矿山精煤日 均产量 73.4 万吨（+4.4 万吨），年同比-8.6%，523 家精煤库存 295 万 吨（+1.7 万吨），年同比-28.3%；截止 1 月 9 日，日均铁水产量 229.6 万吨（+2. ...

Employment Data - December non-farm employment increased by 50,000, below the expected 65,000, indicating a continued slowdown in job growth[3] - Private sector jobs added 37,000 in December, with an average of 43,000 jobs added in November and December, down from 57,000 in Q3[3] - Traditional service industries contributed the most to job growth, with leisure and hospitality adding 47,000 and education and healthcare adding 41,000 jobs respectively[11] Unemployment Trends - The unemployment rate unexpectedly fell by 0.1 percentage points to 4.4%, with the previous value revised down to 4.5%[4] - Labor force participation rate decreased to 62.4%, indicating a potential tightening in the labor market[4] - The U6 unemployment rate also dropped by 0.3 percentage points to 8.4%, but remains at a high level since 2022, suggesting challenges for marginal workers[15] Wage Growth - Average hourly earnings increased by 0.3% month-on-month in December, matching expectations, while year-on-year growth rose to 3.8%, above the expected 3.6%[20] - Wage growth has shown resilience, maintaining a range of 3.6%-3.9% since the second half of 2026[20] - Retail and financial sectors saw the highest year-on-year wage growth at 4.8% and 4.7% respectively, while transportation and healthcare lagged behind[26] Market Expectations - Following the December non-farm data, market expectations for a Fed rate cut in January dropped to 5%, with a 73.4% chance of at least one cut by June[5] - The stock market indices continued to rise, and the dollar index increased, while gold prices surpassed $4,500 per ounce, indicating a "shoe dropping" market reaction[5] - The labor market's oversupply situation is becoming more evident, with job openings falling to 7.146 million, the lowest since 2021, and the labor supply-demand gap widening to -635,000[17]

2026 年 01 月 10 日 融 工 程 金 融 工 程 定 期 报 衍生品市场提示情绪中性偏谨慎——1 月衍生品 月报（2026/1） 投资要点： 股指期货 主要股指（沪深 300、上证 50、中证 500 和中证 1000）在 12 月份 成交额与上月基本持平，显示市场成交活跃度下跌幅度趋缓。 从贴水比例来看，贴水幅度继续在较低水平，显示市场最近空头 力量持续较弱，情绪偏中性。 金 华福证券 团队成员 分析师： 李杨(S0210524100005) ly30676@hfzq.com.cn 分析师： 熊晓湛(S0210524100006) xxz30674@hfzq.com.cn 相关报告 国债期货 12 月份国债期货小幅震荡， 10 年期国债期货对应隐含收益率为 1.76%，低于现货对应的 1.85%。 告 从升贴水结构来看，近远月合约价差在 0 附近波动，整体投资者 对于未来债券市场情绪中性偏乐观。 期权市场 12月份 1000 指数期权波动率小幅低于标的的实际波动率，300ETF 期权波动率与标的的实际波动率持平，显示期权当前价值合理或者低 估。 期权市场 PCR，上证 50 和沪深 300 指数 ...