Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Outperform the Market" [5] Core Insights - The report highlights the coexistence of low pig prices and policy adjustments, indicating that capacity reduction may gradually become evident in the swine breeding sector. The average price of live pigs was 12.69 CNY/kg as of September 19, reflecting a week-on-week decrease of 0.66 CNY/kg. The utilization rate of fattening barns has declined, averaging 40.12% across 17 provinces, down 4.82 percentage points from August 31 [2][10][33]. - In the beef sector, prices for calves and fattening bulls remained stable at 32.44 CNY/kg and 25.97 CNY/kg respectively, with year-to-date increases of 35% and 10%. The long-term outlook suggests tightening beef supply, with a potential price upturn expected in 2026-2027 [3][35]. - The poultry sector is experiencing weak performance, particularly in the white-feathered chicken market, where prices have decreased to 6.88 CNY/kg. The ongoing avian influenza outbreaks may further restrict upstream production capacity [4][41]. - In the agricultural products segment, soybean meal prices have faced downward pressure due to fluctuating market expectations regarding U.S.-China trade negotiations. As of September 19, soybean meal futures were priced at 3014 CNY/ton, down 65 CNY/ton week-on-week [4][55]. Summary by Sections Swine Breeding - Continued supply pressure has led to a decline in pig prices, with a current average of 12.69 CNY/kg. The utilization rate of fattening barns has dropped to 40.12% [2][10]. - The average weight of pigs at slaughter has increased slightly to 128.45 kg, indicating a strong outflow from larger farms [20][33]. - The price of piglets has reached a yearly low, averaging 259 CNY/head, down 11% week-on-week [27][33]. Beef Industry - The beef market is stabilizing after recent price increases, with expectations of tightening supply leading to a potential price upturn in 2026-2027 [3][35]. - Current prices for calves and fattening bulls are stable, reflecting a recovery trend in the market [35]. Poultry Sector - The white-feathered chicken market is underperforming, with prices at 6.88 CNY/kg. The ongoing avian influenza situation may further impact production capacity [4][41]. - Egg prices have fluctuated, recently peaking at 8 CNY/kg before settling at 7.92 CNY/kg [4][41]. Agricultural Products - Soybean meal prices have been volatile, influenced by U.S.-China trade negotiations, with current prices at 3014 CNY/ton [4][55]. - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring weather conditions and trade policies affecting soybean imports [4][55].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the industry [4]. Core Insights - The report highlights the potential for valuation recovery in the home furnishing sector in Q4, with many companies currently at historical low valuations and attractive dividend yields, suggesting a timely opportunity for left-side positioning [3]. - The introduction of new HNB products by British American Tobacco (BAT) in European markets is expected to enhance market share, with a target of reaching 50 million consumers of smoke-free products by 2030 and transitioning to a smoke-free enterprise by 2035 [3]. Summary by Sections Home Furnishing - The report notes that in August, the residential construction area decreased by 28.4% year-on-year, while the sales area of residential properties saw a 10% decline [8]. - Despite the pressure on the real estate sector, the report emphasizes the opportunity for investment in home furnishing companies due to their low valuations and high dividend yields [8]. - Key companies to watch include leading brands in soft furnishings and custom furniture, such as Kuka Home, Sophia, and Oppein [8]. Paper and Packaging - As of September 19, 2025, the prices for various paper products showed mixed trends, with double glue paper at 4800 RMB/ton (down 18.75 RMB), while corrugated paper increased to 2791.25 RMB/ton (up 20 RMB) [8]. - The report suggests focusing on companies with strong supply chain management and fiber supply, such as Nine Dragons Paper and Sun Paper [8]. Light Industry Consumption - In August, sales of sanitary napkins on e-commerce platforms increased by 5.8% year-on-year, with the Nais Princess brand showing a significant growth of 41% [10]. - The report anticipates a boost in sales for personal care brands as the e-commerce sales season approaches, highlighting companies like Dengkang Oral Care and Steady Medical [10]. Export Chain - The report notes that the recent interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve may lead to improved demand in the U.S. real estate sector, positively impacting export-oriented home furnishing companies [10]. - Companies to monitor in the export chain include Zhongxin Co., Jiangxin Home, and Zhejiang Natural [10]. New Tobacco Products - The report discusses the launch of BAT's GLO HILO in several European markets, projecting a continued increase in market share for HNB products [10]. - It recommends focusing on companies that have established partnerships in the electronic cigarette and HNB product sectors, such as Smoore International [10].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the motorcycle industry, indicating a positive outlook compared to the broader market [7]. Core Insights - The motorcycle industry continues to experience high demand, with fuel motorcycle sales reaching 1.5635 million units in August, a year-on-year increase of 12.04%. The sales of large-displacement recreational motorcycles (over 250cc) grew by 23.60% to 84,500 units [3][14]. - Exports of motorcycles in August totaled 1.1242 million units, marking a 20.69% increase year-on-year, with export revenue reaching $759 million, up 31.24% [3][14]. - The report highlights the ongoing recovery in domestic demand supported by policy initiatives, particularly in the home appliance sector, with recommendations to focus on major appliance brands like Midea Group, Haier, and Gree Electric [4][39]. Summary by Sections Motorcycle Industry - The report notes that Changan Power's motorcycle sales reached 50,000 units in August, a 73% increase year-on-year, with exports growing by 49% [14]. - Longxin General's motorcycle sales were 117,000 units, down 25% year-on-year, but large-displacement sales increased by 29% [23]. - Qianjiang Motorcycle's total sales were 34,000 units, with exports surging by 85% year-on-year, indicating strong growth despite a slight decline in domestic demand [33]. Home Appliances - The home appliance sector saw a weekly increase of 1.3%, with specific segments like black appliances and kitchen appliances showing positive trends [4][41]. - The report emphasizes the potential for recovery in consumer demand for large appliances due to trade-in programs, suggesting a focus on brands like TCL and Hisense [4][39]. Investment Opportunities - The report identifies several investment opportunities, including: 1. Large appliances benefiting from trade-in programs, recommending brands like Midea and Haier [4][39]. 2. The pet industry as a resilient sector, with companies like Guibao Pet and Zhongchong Co. highlighted [4][39]. 3. Electric two-wheelers expected to see improved domestic sales, with companies like Ninebot and Yadea recommended [4][39]. 4. The global expansion of Chinese brands in clean appliances and tools, with a focus on companies like Roborock and Kingclean [5][40].

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Outperform the Market" [6][55] Core Insights - The low-altitude economy index increased by 0.06% this week, ranking 140 out of 338, outperforming the market as the Shanghai Composite Index fell by 1.30% [3][15] - The report indicates that the low-altitude sector is in a phase of waiting for catalysts to trigger a rebound, with significant potential for growth driven by infrastructure development and the application of drones in various fields [4][30] - The establishment of a leadership group by the Civil Aviation Administration of China for general aviation and low-altitude economy work is expected to lead to favorable industry policies [4][30] Summary by Sections Market Review and Weekly Outlook - The low-altitude economy index has shown resilience, outperforming other sectors despite recent market adjustments [4][29] - Key stocks in the A-share and Hong Kong markets saw significant gains, with West Region Tourism up by 17.58% and Baolong Technology up by 13.34% [3][18] Industry Dynamics - The report highlights the launch of the first low-altitude economic internet platform in Hunan, indicating growing infrastructure and service availability [33] - Jiangsu Province's low-altitude economy is projected to reach nearly 30 billion RMB, with around 1,300 enterprises involved [36] Investment Recommendations - Suggested focus on infrastructure companies such as Suzhou Planning and Lais Information, and drone-related companies like Jifeng Technology and Henghe Precision [5][32] - Notable companies in the capacity sector include Wanfeng Aowei and Zhongshen Power, which are recommended for attention [5][32]

Group 1: Japan's Economic Outlook - The Bank of Japan (BoJ) initiated a slow reduction of its ETF and REITs holdings, planning to sell ¥3.3 trillion and ¥50 billion annually, respectively, while holding ¥37.2 trillion and ¥655 billion as of August[2][12] - Japan's overall CPI and core CPI (excluding fresh food and energy) in August were 2.7% and 3.3%, down by 0.4 and 0.1 percentage points respectively, indicating a potential peak in inflation[2][15] - Concerns about trade environment, corporate profits, and consumer confidence suggest a low probability of the BoJ raising interest rates within the year[2][15] Group 2: UK Monetary Policy - The Bank of England (BoE) paused interest rate cuts, maintaining a rate of 4.0%, after previously cutting rates by 75 basis points in 2023[3][18] - UK inflation rates for August were 3.7% and 3.8% for overall and core CPI, respectively, remaining high despite a 0.2 percentage point decline from July[3][18] - The BoE reduced its planned bond sales from £100 billion to £70 billion over the next 12 months to avoid rapid increases in the interest rate curve[3][23] Group 3: US Economic Indicators - US retail sales in August grew by 5.0% year-on-year, a significant recovery of 0.9 percentage points from July, marking the highest growth since April[4][24] - Initial jobless claims in the second week of September fell to 231,000, down by 33,000 from the previous week, indicating a potential recovery in the labor market[4][28] - The recent tax cuts may sustain high consumer demand in the coming months, potentially boosting the labor market[4][29]

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Outperform the Market" [7] Core Insights - The release of the draft national standard for intelligent connected vehicles establishes a clear safety baseline for products in this sector [2][12] - The "Qijing" brand, a collaboration between GAC Group and Huawei, aims to integrate advanced intelligent technologies into high-end smart electric vehicles, enhancing competitiveness in the market [3][13] Market Performance - From September 15 to September 19, 2025, the automotive sector increased by 3%, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 3.4 percentage points [14] - Year-to-date, the automotive sector has risen by 26.3%, ranking 8th among 31 sectors [14] Sales Data - From September 1 to 14, 2025, retail sales of passenger vehicles reached 732,000 units, a year-on-year decrease of 4% but a month-on-month increase of 6% [5][35] - New energy passenger vehicle retail sales during the same period were 438,000 units, showing a year-on-year increase of 6% and a month-on-month increase of 10% [5][35] Key Data - In August 2025, total automotive sales were 2.857 million units, with a year-on-year increase of 16.4% [41] - The inventory level of automotive dealers was at a reasonable range, with a comprehensive inventory coefficient of 1.31 [38] Industry News - The China Automobile Association is promoting a "60-day payment term" for suppliers, with major automakers responding positively [63] - Zeekr Technology's shareholders approved a merger agreement with Geely Automobile, which will make Zeekr a wholly-owned subsidiary of Geely [66]

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Outperform the Market" [7][16] Core Insights - Oklo, a key player in the Small Modular Reactor (SMR) sector, saw a significant stock increase of 63.5% over the week, driven by a surge in investment interest in SMR technology [3][4] - The demand for energy is expected to rise dramatically, with projections indicating that by 2035, the total computing power in society may increase by 100,000 times, leading to a substantial rise in electricity consumption from data centers [4] - SMRs are characterized by their inherent safety, lower investment requirements, rapid returns, flexible deployment, and wide application scenarios, making them a promising energy solution for the growing needs of data centers and AI [5] Summary by Sections Investment Opportunities - Companies to watch include: 1. Jingye Intelligent: Collaborating with Zhejiang University on micro-reactor/SMR technology, showing significant growth potential in the context of global AI demand and energy transition [5] 2. Jiadian Co.: Leading in the nuclear power sector with its helium fan as the only power device for the fourth-generation high-temperature gas-cooled reactor [5] 3. Guoguang Electric: Key components for the ITER project [5] 4. Lanshi Heavy Industry: Covers upstream nuclear fuel systems, midstream nuclear power plant equipment, and downstream spent fuel processing [5] 5. Kexin Electromechanical: Producing high-temperature gas-cooled reactor products and replacing imports with new fuel transport containers [5] 6. Hailu Heavy Industry: Services for various reactor types including third and fourth generation reactors [5] 7. Jiangsu Shentong: Secured over 90% of orders for nuclear-grade valves in new nuclear power projects [5]

Quantitative Models and Construction Methods 1. Model Name: Valuation Momentum (Mom) - **Model Construction Idea**: The model aims to capture short-term valuation trends in the convertible bond market by identifying upward or downward momentum in valuation levels[23][27][37] - **Model Construction Process**: - Calculate the 5-day moving average (MA5) of the valuation index[37] - Introduce a buffer to reduce noise: $ MA5_{buf} = MA5 \times (1 + 5/10000) $[37] - Define valuation momentum as: $ Mom = value - MA5_{buf} $[37] - Signal generation: - $ Mom > 0 $: Indicates positive momentum, suggesting a buy/add position[37] - $ Mom \leq 0 $: Indicates insufficient momentum, suggesting hold/reduce position[37] - **Model Evaluation**: The model effectively identifies short-term valuation trends but faces challenges with high turnover rates, making real-world implementation difficult[38][42][50] 2. Model Name: Cross-Sectional Timing Strategy - **Model Construction Idea**: Combines valuation levels and valuation momentum to optimize timing signals for convertible bond investments[46][50] - **Model Construction Process**: - Valuation grouping: Divide the valuation index into quintiles (Q1-Q5) based on historical percentiles[19][46] - Momentum grouping: Divide valuation momentum into quintiles (Q1-Q5) based on historical trends[23][46] - Cross-sectional analysis: Analyze the interaction between valuation levels and momentum to generate signals[46] - Final signal: - Positive momentum ($ Mom > 0 $) and high valuation ($ Q5 $): High allocation to convertible bonds[47][50] - Other scenarios: Adjust allocation based on specific group interactions[46][50] - **Model Evaluation**: The strategy reduces turnover in high-valuation scenarios, improving practical feasibility while maintaining performance[50][51] --- Model Backtesting Results 1. Valuation Momentum (Mom) - **Annualized Return**: 21.13%[57] - **Maximum Drawdown**: 19.69%[57] - **Annualized Volatility**: 17.85%[57] - **Win Rate**: 47.20%[57] - **Calmar Ratio**: 1.07[57] - **Sharpe Ratio**: 1.11[57] 2. Cross-Sectional Timing Strategy - **Annualized Return**: 18.29%[66] - **Maximum Drawdown**: 6.74%[66] - **Annualized Volatility**: 11.32%[66] - **Win Rate**: 48.10%[66] - **Calmar Ratio**: 2.72[66] - **Sharpe Ratio**: 1.45[66] --- Quantitative Factors and Construction Methods 1. Factor Name: Valuation Momentum (Mom) - **Factor Construction Idea**: Measures the short-term trend of valuation levels to identify potential price movements in convertible bonds[23][27][37] - **Factor Construction Process**: - Define valuation momentum as: $ Mom = value - MA5 $[23][27] - Group data into quintiles (Q1-Q5) based on momentum levels[23][27] - **Factor Evaluation**: Positive momentum (Q5) is associated with higher short-term returns, validating the hypothesis that upward valuation trends attract inflows and drive prices higher[25][29] 2. Factor Name: Valuation Percentile - **Factor Construction Idea**: Measures the relative valuation level of convertible bonds over a rolling 250-day window to assess overvaluation or undervaluation[19][46] - **Factor Construction Process**: - Calculate the valuation index for each day[14] - Determine the percentile rank of the current valuation relative to the past 250 days[19] - Group data into quintiles (Q1-Q5) based on percentile ranks[19] - **Factor Evaluation**: High valuation levels (Q5) are associated with lower long-term returns but can still generate positive short-term returns due to market exuberance[19][46] --- Factor Backtesting Results 1. Valuation Momentum (Mom) - **1-Day Return**: - Q1: -0.05%[24] - Q2: 0.00%[24] - Q3: 0.01%[24] - Q4: 0.04%[24] - Q5: 0.14%[24] - **1-Year Return**: - Q1: 5.67%[24] - Q2: 6.53%[24] - Q3: 5.78%[24] - Q4: 5.08%[24] - Q5: 3.83%[24] 2. Valuation Percentile - **1-Week Return**: - Q1: 0.17%[19] - Q2: 0.32%[19] - Q3: 0.16%[19] - Q4: -0.13%[19] - Q5: 0.19%[19] - **1-Year Return**: - Q1: 12.57%[20] - Q2: 9.21%[20] - Q3: 5.35%[20] - Q4: 2.52%[20] - Q5: 2.21%[20]

Investment Rating - Industry rating is "stronger than the market" indicating that the overall return of the industry is expected to exceed the market benchmark index by more than 5% in the next 6 months [12]. Core Insights - The completion of the last concrete pour for the Chang-Jiu High-Speed Railway's main bridge over the Gan River marks a significant milestone, enhancing the high-speed rail network in China and supporting regional economic development [2][4]. - The Western Land-Sea New Corridor has achieved a milestone of over 1 million TEUs (Twenty-foot Equivalent Units) in cargo shipments this year, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 72.5%, indicating robust growth in logistics and transportation capabilities [3]. - The Chinese government has set ambitious targets for railway expansion, aiming for a total railway mileage of approximately 200,000 kilometers by 2035, which includes 70,000 kilometers of high-speed rail, creating substantial market opportunities for the rail transit equipment industry [4]. Summary by Sections Industry Development - The Chang-Jiu High-Speed Railway, part of the "Eight Vertical and Eight Horizontal" high-speed rail network, will connect Nanchang and Jiujiang, covering a distance of 138 kilometers with a design speed of 350 km/h, contributing to the modernization of the transportation system in Jiangxi Province [2]. - The Western Land-Sea New Corridor has expanded its operational routes to 24, significantly enhancing the logistics network in western China, with a focus on major ports and cities [3]. Market Opportunities - The "14th Five-Year Plan" outlines a goal for railway operating mileage to reach 165,000 kilometers by 2025, with high-speed rail accounting for 50,000 kilometers, indicating a strong growth trajectory for the rail transit equipment sector [4]. - The projected construction of approximately 35,000 kilometers of railway, including 20,000 kilometers of high-speed rail from 2026 to 2035, presents vast market potential for companies involved in rail transit equipment [4]. Recommended Companies - China CNR Corporation: A leading global supplier of rail transit equipment, maintaining a strong position in the industry [4]. - China Railway Signal & Communication Corporation: A top provider of rail transit control systems, recognized for its technological advancements [4]. - Times Electric: A leading supplier of traction and conversion systems, consistently leading the domestic market [4]. - Sifang Control: A key supplier in the field of high-speed rail monitoring, focusing on safety assurance [4]. - Shenzhou High-Speed Railway: A leader in intelligent operation and maintenance equipment for rail transit, serving a wide range of clients [4]. - Huifeng Technology: Specializes in rail transit operation and maintenance equipment, offering integrated solutions [4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, anticipating a relative increase of over 20% in stock price compared to the market benchmark within the next six months [5][15]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 4.833 billion yuan in H1 2025, a decrease of 25% year-on-year, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 84 million yuan, an increase of 102% year-on-year [2]. - The report highlights that cost advantages are helping to offset the pressure from lithium prices, with expectations for increased production from mining operations [1][5]. - The company has confirmed an investment income of 235 million yuan from SQM, marking a return to profitability compared to the previous year [2]. Financial Performance Summary - In Q2 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 2.248 billion yuan, a decrease of 13% quarter-on-quarter, with a net loss of 20 million yuan [2]. - Lithium concentrate production in Q2 2025 was 340,000 tons, a slight decrease of 0.2% quarter-on-quarter but an increase of 2.3% year-on-year [3]. - The average selling price of lithium concentrate in Q2 2025 was 725 USD/ton, down 8.3% from the previous quarter [3]. - The cash production cost per ton in Q2 2025 was 366 AUD, an increase of 7.3% quarter-on-quarter, primarily due to lower ore grades [3]. Production and Cost Guidance - The company has provided production guidance for FY25, estimating an actual output of 1.479 million tons, with cash costs expected to be 325 AUD/ton, aligning with previous expectations [4]. - The production capacity of the lithium hydroxide plant in Australia is gradually increasing, with Q2 2025 output at 2,126 tons, a 36% increase quarter-on-quarter [4]. Profit Forecast - The profit forecast for the company has been adjusted, with expected net profits of 1.105 billion yuan, 1.556 billion yuan, and 1.790 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [5].