证券研究报告|专题报告 有色金属 行业评级 强大于市 2026年1月5日 供给有约束需求有韧性，铝价中枢或上移 ——铝行业专题报告 证券分析师： 王保庆 执业证书编号：S0210522090001 请务必阅读报告末页的重要声明 华福证券 华福证券 投资要点 2 华福证券 华福证券 Ø 供需：供给有约束，需求有韧性。供给端国内面临产能天花板强约束，海外供应受制于能源供应瓶颈，需求端传统板块趋稳 ，新兴领域强劲，储能、机器人及智能制造等新兴领域对铝材的需求快速扩张，电解铝供需紧平衡格局加剧； Ø 宏观：美联储降息预期仍在，宏观经济压制减轻。美联储9月正式开启降息周期，美国26年面临中期选举和美联储主席人事 更替，关注宽货币+宽财政组合可能； Ø 库存：全球电解铝库存处于历史同期低位。截至2025年12月31日，全球电解铝库存145万吨； Ø 总结：紧平衡格局延续，铝价中枢或上移。短期，供需面对铝价底部有支撑，降息预期下预计铝价偏强；中长期，国内天花 板+能源不足持续扰动，同时新能源需求仍保持旺盛，紧平衡或致铝价中枢上移。 Ø 个股：关注天山、宏创、云铝、神火、华通、宏桥及中孚等标的。 Ø 风险提示：美联储降息不及 ...

Group 1 - The market is expected to have a strong start in the new year, with a slight decline of 0.33% in the overall A-share market during the last week of December, influenced by the New Year holiday [3][13] - The Shanghai Composite Index and the CSI 500 saw slight increases, while the CSI 300 and ChiNext Index experienced declines. The technology and advanced manufacturing sectors showed slight gains, whereas consumer and healthcare sectors faced losses [3][13] - Among the 31 Shenwan industries, oil and petrochemicals, defense and military, and media sectors led the gains, while electric equipment, food and beverage, and public utilities lagged [3][13] Group 2 - The stock-bond yield spread has decreased to 0.5%, indicating a divergence in market valuations, with the valuation dispersion index rising by 1.7% [21] - Market sentiment has improved, with the sentiment index increasing by 25.2% to 59.9, while the industry rotation strength has decreased to 40, indicating a potential warning level [22][28] - The average daily trading volume of the Stock Connect increased by 519 billion yuan compared to the previous week, with significant inflows into the defense, automotive, and home appliance sectors [34] Group 3 - Meta announced the acquisition of Manus, deepening its layout in AI applications, which highlights the strategic value of AI agents in the current market [44] - Upwind New Materials officially entered the humanoid robot sector with the launch of the "Qiyuan Q1," indicating a growing interest in personal robotics [45] - Blue Arrow Aerospace's IPO application has been accepted, accelerating the capitalization process in the commercial aerospace sector, which is expected to bring new investment opportunities [46] Group 4 - The report maintains a positive outlook for the market, suggesting that the spring rally may start early, supported by improving overseas liquidity, expectations of renminbi appreciation, and positive industrial trends [48] - It is recommended to focus on opportunities in domestic computing power, as well as in commercial aerospace and intelligent driving sectors, which are expected to benefit from policy support [48]

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Outperform the Market," indicating that the overall return of the industry is expected to exceed the market benchmark index by more than 5% in the next six months [15]. Core Insights - The report highlights the recent trend of domestic GPU companies in Hong Kong initiating capitalization, with Wallen Technology listing on January 2, 2023, and experiencing a closing price increase of 75.8% on its first day. Additionally, Tensowise has passed the Hong Kong Stock Exchange hearing and plans to list on January 8, while Kunlun Chip has submitted a listing application [3][4]. - Wallen Technology focuses on independent research and development, with over 1,500 global patent applications and 600 granted patents. Its GPU products cater to various applications, including cloud training and inference, with significant revenue growth in its intelligent computing solutions [6]. - Tensowise prioritizes the AI sector, with its inference series driving revenue growth. The company has seen a substantial increase in revenue from its inference products, which have become a significant part of its overall revenue [7]. Summary by Sections Wallen Technology - Wallen Technology has launched multiple GPU products, including BR106, BR166, and BR110, designed for various applications such as cloud training and edge inference. The company reported intelligent computing solutions revenue of 58.15 million yuan in the first half of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 48%, with a gross margin of 31.2% [6]. Tensowise - Tensowise has introduced three generations of its training series, with the Tianwei series designed for large-scale AI training. The company allocates 5% of its global offering proceeds to R&D for AI computing solutions, targeting industries with strong domestic substitution demand [7]. - The revenue from Tensowise's inference series has shown significant growth, with 87.02 million yuan in revenue for the first half of 2025, accounting for 26.8% of total revenue, compared to 430,000 yuan in 2022 [7].

Group 1 - The total IPO financing scale in the A-share market for December 2025 was 111.56 billion, a decrease of 54% month-on-month. The main board financing scale was 56.12 billion, and the North Exchange financing scale was 6.04 billion. A total of 11 new stocks were issued, consistent with the previous month, including 5 from the main board, 2 from the North Exchange, and 2 from the ChiNext [4][5]. - As of the end of December, there were 56 IPO projects approved but not yet issued across various A-share boards, with a total proposed fundraising scale of 470.5 billion. The ChiNext accounted for 13% (7 companies), while the main board and Sci-Tech Innovation Board accounted for 20% and 16%, respectively. The main board's proposed fundraising accounted for 35% (164.6 billion) [11]. - The average offline subscription limit for new stocks in the past three months was mostly in the range of 5 to 10 billion for the main board, 1 to 2 billion for the ChiNext, and varied for the Sci-Tech Innovation Board [12]. Group 2 - In December, the number of offline inquiry objects for the main board, ChiNext, and Sci-Tech Innovation Board reached 1651, 555, and 506, respectively, with the main board increasing by 55% month-on-month [16]. - The average winning rate for A/B class accounts on the main board in December was 0.0069% and 0.0064%, down 62% and 63% month-on-month [17]. - The contribution of new stocks to funds was measured, with funds in the 1-2 billion scale contributing +0.611% and those in the 2-3 billion scale contributing +0.487%. The annualized return was 2.247% [22]. Group 3 - In December 2025, a total of 3325 funds participated in new stock subscriptions, with a total scale of 7.43 trillion. The most numerous were equity mixed funds, with 1250, followed by passive index funds with 816, and flexible allocation funds with 577 [24][26]. - The participation rate of various types of funds in new stock subscriptions was detailed, indicating a diverse engagement across fund categories [29].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" [8][30]. Core Insights - The new vehicle replacement subsidy policy has been implemented as expected, with continued support for mid-to-high-end vehicles [2][13]. - The expected year-on-year growth rate for new energy passenger vehicles in 2025 is approximately 18%, with a forecasted high single-digit growth rate for 2026 [4][15]. - The performance of leading new energy vehicle companies is showing significant differentiation, with brands like Leap Motor, Xpeng, and NIO performing well [5][19]. Summary by Sections Investment Highlights - The 2026 vehicle replacement subsidy policy includes changes such as a shift from fixed subsidies to price-linked subsidies, with scrapping subsidies set at 12% for electric vehicles and 10% for gasoline vehicles, with caps of 20,000 and 15,000 yuan respectively [3][13]. - The overall subsidy policy is expected to stabilize, with a gradual reduction in subsidies for vehicles priced below 200,000 yuan, while maintaining support for those above this price point [3][13]. Market Dynamics - In the narrow passenger vehicle market, the cumulative wholesale volume from January to November 2025 is approximately 26.726 million units, representing a year-on-year increase of 11.2% [4][15]. - The cumulative wholesale volume for new energy vehicles during the same period is about 13.742 million units, with a year-on-year growth of 28.2% [4][15]. - The retail penetration rate for new energy vehicles is expected to reach approximately 54.1% in 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 6.5 percentage points [4][15]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on brands with strong mid-to-high-end potential, such as Geely, Seres, JAC Motors, and NIO, as well as export brands with sustained high growth, including BYD, Leap Motor, and Great Wall Motors [6][20].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "stronger than the market" rating for the defense and military industry [8] Core Viewpoints - The core investment logic for commercial aerospace is to grasp the core line of rockets and explore the elastic space of satellites [45][46] - The aerospace sector is expected to perform well, driven by the strong performance of its constituent stocks [19][25] Summary by Sections Market Review - The Shenwan Military Industry Index (801740) rose by 3.05% from December 29 to December 31, while the CSI 300 Index fell by 0.59%, resulting in an excess return of 3.64 percentage points [19][20] - Since 2025, the Shenwan Military Industry Index has increased by 34.3%, outperforming the CSI 300 Index, which rose by 17.66% [20] - The aerospace sector showed strong performance, primarily due to the good performance of Aerospace Electronics [25] Rocket Sector - Both capacity and computing power are strategic high points that major countries are competing for, with China's 14th Five-Year Plan emphasizing the importance of becoming a "space power" [46] - In 2025, China is expected to conduct 92 rocket launches, while SpaceX is projected to conduct 167 launches [46] - The capital closed-loop logic indicates that domestic private rocket companies are expected to go public, enhancing their manufacturing capabilities and supporting a robust global supply chain [47] Satellite Sector - Large-scale rocket launches will accelerate the deployment of a significant number of networked satellites, with plans to launch over 38,000 satellites by major Chinese constellations [48] - The competition for space computing power between China and the U.S. is expected to expand the overall commercial aerospace market [48][50] - The trend of integrating "communication and computing" will lead to larger satellite sizes to support greater data transmission [50] Financial and Valuation Aspects - As of December 31, the TTM price-to-earnings ratio for the Shenwan Military Industry Index is 75.92, indicating a high configuration significance given the strong recovery expectations for the industry in 2026 [51] - Passive funds experienced a net outflow of 2.592 billion yuan during the week, but the expectation of strong demand recovery in the military industry is likely to lead to a return of net inflows [31][36] Recommended Companies - Rocket Sector: Western Materials, Feiwo Technology, Aerospace Power, Aerospace Intelligence [52] - Satellite Sector: Aerospace Electronics, Lens Technology, West Measurement Testing, Guangwei Composite, Tongyu Communication, Zhenyou Technology, Aerospace Hanyu [52] - Fusion Energy: Guoguang Electric, Lianchuang Optoelectronics, Hezhuan Intelligent, Wangzi New Materials, Xuguang Electronics, Aike Saibo, Yongding Co., Ltd., Hangyang Co., Ltd., Jingye Intelligent, Weiteng Electric, New Wind Light, Parker New Materials, Hongwei Technology [52]

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Outperform the Market" [7] Core Insights - The smart glasses have been included in the national subsidy scope for the first time, with a subsidy standard of 15% of the selling price, capped at 500 yuan [2] - The smart glasses market is heating up, with global AI camera glasses sales expected to reach 14.5 million units by 2025, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) exceeding 50% from 2025 to 2029, potentially reaching 60 million units by 2029 [3] - Major players like Apple, Samsung, and Xiaomi are actively entering the smart glasses market, with significant sales growth reported for products like the Ray-Ban Meta series, which saw a year-on-year sales increase of over 200% [4] Summary by Sections National Subsidy Policy - The 2026 consumer goods national subsidy policy expands the subsidy range to include smart glasses for the first time, maintaining the same subsidy standard as 2025 [2] Market Growth Projections - The smart glasses market is projected to grow significantly, with sales expected to reach 14.5 million units globally by 2025 and 60 million units by 2029, indicating a robust growth trajectory [3] Competitive Landscape - The entry of major tech companies into the smart glasses sector is intensifying competition, with notable collaborations and product launches enhancing market dynamics [4] Investment Opportunities - Suggested companies to watch include those involved in foldable screens, smart glasses, silicon-based OLED screens, automation assembly and testing equipment, thermal management, and 3D printing applications [5]

Group 1 - The report highlights that the Chinese economy is showing signs of improvement, with the three major PMI indices rising into the expansion zone. In December 2025, the manufacturing PMI, non-manufacturing business activity index, and composite PMI output index were 50.1%, 50.2%, and 50.7%, respectively, marking increases of 0.9, 0.7, and 1 percentage points from the previous month [8]. - The manufacturing PMI has returned to expansion, with significant improvements in both production and demand. The production index was at 51.7% (+1.7), and the new orders index was at 50.8% (+1.6), both surpassing the critical point [8]. - The report indicates that policy coordination is expected to strengthen economic recovery, with a focus on fiscal preemptive measures and continued liquidity easing. This is anticipated to enhance market confidence in the ongoing economic recovery [8]. Group 2 - The report notes that the Hong Kong stock market experienced a decline in December 2025, with the Hang Seng Index falling by 0.88%, the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index down by 2.37%, and the Hang Seng Technology Index decreasing by 1.48% [15]. - Despite the overall decline, the military industry sector, commercial aerospace, and rare earth permanent magnets showed strong performance, leading the market [16]. - The report emphasizes that the advanced manufacturing sector, cyclical industries, and technology sectors saw significant gains, while the pharmaceutical and medical sectors experienced deeper declines [22][31]. Group 3 - The report highlights that foreign capital index futures positions weakened, with net short positions in IC, IF, and IM expanding, while IH net positions remained at zero [42]. - The report also mentions that the onshore and offshore RMB swap rates have declined, with the domestic bond plus swap yield lower than the US Treasury yield [45]. Group 4 - Upcoming key events include the US non-farm payroll and ISM PMI data, which are expected to be closely monitored in the coming week [47].

行 电力设备 2026 年 01 月 04 日 业 研 究 行 业 电力设备 产业周跟踪：首个固态电池国标征求意见稿出台， 重视商业航天能源系统投资机遇 投资要点： 锂电板块核心观点：2026 年有望成为钠电产业化元年，汽车以旧换新 补贴如期落地。1）宁德时代表态推进钠电产业化；2）固态电池走向规范 化、标准化；3）汽车以旧换新补贴细则如期落地，中高端车补贴力度延续。 定 期 报 告 光伏板块核心观点：知识产权新政落地，强化"反内卷"法治底座。 近日，12 月 31 日，国家知识产权局与工信部联合发布《关于进一步加强 光伏产业知识产权保护工作的意见》，首次将专利布局、侵权裁决、海外维 权等全链环节纳入政策框架，明确到 2027 年形成一批高价值专利组合。政 策把"尊重知识产权"列为破解"内卷式"竞争的核心抓手，标志行业自 律正式升级为"法治化+市场化"双轨护航，有望加速低端产能出清、提升 龙头技术溢价，为 2026 年供需再平衡提供制度基石。 风电板块核心观点：3 个海上风电项目共 1.85GW 实现全容量并网， 金风科技 3GW 风光制氢一体化项目取得预审批复。1）江苏、浙江 3 个海 上风电项目共 1.8 ...

行 业 研 华福证券 电力设备 2026 年 01 月 04 日 电力设备 究 行 业 动 态 我国首份固态电池标准进入征求意见阶段，看好 2026 年固态电池投资机遇 投资要点： 事件： 全国标准信息公共服务平台显示，国家标准计划《电动汽车用固态电池 第 1 部分：术语和分类》已经从起草进入到了征求意见阶段，为我国车用固 态电池标准体系的首个国家标准草案。 不仅是国内首个也是全球首个固态电池标准，将护航固态电池产业化 提速 跟 踪 根据同步披露的《编制说明》，截止目前暂未识别到国际、国外已发布的固 态电池标准，这也意味着，该征求意见稿是全球首个固态电池国家标准草 案。开展的车用固态电池标准化研究，有利于统一评价手段、规范产品质 量、支撑政府管理，基于强制性国家标准的逐步完善，车用固态电池产品 才能获取更清晰更真实的符合全固态电池的 3C 认证证书，将为市场端导入 铺平道路。 明确了固态电池统一定义，取消了"半固态电池"表述 首次在国家层面将电池划分为液态电池、混合固液电池和固态电池，这就 意味着"半固态电池"可作为"混合固液电池"的许用术语，全固态电池可 作为"固态电池"许用术语。我们认为这一规范，将极大减 ...