固 定 收 益 华福证券 2026 年 01 月 19 日 利率顶部信号初现 团队成员 投资要点： 固 定 上周债市出现修复，信用利差相对平稳而二永利差继续收窄。随着 A 股波动率加大，上周股债跷跷板效应弱化，债市情绪有所好转，周三 30 年 国债发行好于预期，加之交易所将融资保证金比例从 80%调高至 100%权 益市场进一步降幅，带动市场进一步修复。周四央行发布会宣布结构性降 息 25BP，但市场预期的降准并未落地，日内债券大幅波动，但随着资金转 松收益率再度回落，10 年期国债再度降至 1.84%附近。 收 益 专 题 上周债市最重要的信息就是周四央行新闻发布会，尽管降准预期落空， 但央行仍然传递了一些不同的信号。首先是央行强调降准降息仍有空间。 央行表示当前汇率稳定，外部因素不构成降息的强约束，而银行净息差出 现企稳迹象，2026 年还有大量存款到期重定价，上周央行下调再贷款等结 构性工具利率，也有助于降低银行付息成本，为降息创造条件而非替代总 量工具。此外，尽管从支持信贷的角度看，1 月降准有一定的必要性，但央 行可能担忧其信号意义过强加剧资本市场过热的风险，因此时点推迟。在 未有政策利率调降带来银 ...

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Outperform the Market" indicating that the overall return of the industry is expected to exceed the market benchmark index by more than 5% in the next 6 months [5][40]. Core Insights - TSMC plans to significantly increase its capital expenditure to meet the strong demand for artificial intelligence and high-performance computing, with a projected investment of up to $56 billion by 2026, a 36.9% increase from the previous year [4][23]. - The semiconductor materials sector is experiencing rapid domestic production acceleration, with major companies benefiting from industry dividends. Notable mentions include Tongcheng New Materials and Huate Gas, which are making strides in import substitution [4][23]. - The new materials industry is expected to grow rapidly due to ongoing manufacturing upgrades and increasing demand for high-standard, high-performance materials [4][23]. Market Overview - The Wind New Materials Index closed at 5779.39 points, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 0.98%. The semiconductor materials index rose by 8.12%, while other sub-indices showed modest gains [3][8]. - The top gainers for the week included Aladdin (20.24%), Anji Technology (12.69%), and Shanghai Xinyang (12.29%), while the largest decliners were Pulit (-17.28%) and Double Star New Materials (-4.22%) [20][21]. Recent Industry Highlights - TSMC's capital expenditure is part of its largest overseas capacity expansion plan, having invested over $180 billion since 2020 [4][23]. - The U.S. announced a 25% tariff on certain imported semiconductors and semiconductor manufacturing equipment, which may impact key products from companies like NVIDIA and AMD [23][24]. - Jinfa Technology has invested in a core supplier for Tesla's robots, which is preparing for an IPO, highlighting the growing importance of high-performance engineering plastics in robotics [4][24].

2026 年 01 月 19 日 策 略 研 究 北美缺电或催生"表后供电"新模式，电力设备 正处于 AI 驱动大周期 投资要点： 策 略 定 期 报 告 北美缺电或催生"表后供电"新模式，电力设备正处于 AI 驱动大周 期。在美国电网老化亟需升级&"自建电厂"的"表后供电"模式双重驱 动下，相关电力设备需求将随之增长。电力设备正处于 AI 驱动的大周期中， 关注燃气轮机&光储&SOFC 等发电设备、变压器等电网设备、AIDC 等电 气设备的相关投资机会。 本周（1/12-1/16）市场先扬后抑，全 A 收涨 0.49%。从指数情况看， 科创 50、中证 500 领涨，上证 50、中证红利领跌。从风格情况看，科技、 周期领涨，消费、金融地产领跌。本周 31 个申万行业涨少跌多，计算机、 电子、有色金属领涨，农林牧渔、房地产、国防军工领跌。 3、涨价链：金属矿产、化工、存储等涨价链景气度较高，供需格局优 化。 风险提示 地缘政治风险超预期、宏观经济不及预期、海外市场大幅波动、 假设与现实存在偏离、历史不代表未来。 团队成员 市场观察：股债收益差下降，行业轮动强度下降。（1）市场估值：股 债收益差下降至 0.4% ...

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Outperform the Market," indicating that the overall return of the industry is expected to exceed the market benchmark index by more than 5% in the next 6 months [51]. Core Insights - TSMC plans to significantly increase its capital expenditure to meet the strong demand for artificial intelligence and high-performance computing, with a projected investment of up to $56 billion by 2026, a 36.9% increase from the previous year's $40.9 billion [3][27]. - The semiconductor materials sector is experiencing rapid domestic production acceleration, with major companies benefiting from industry growth and market demand [3][27]. - The new materials industry is expected to grow rapidly due to ongoing manufacturing upgrades and increasing demand for high-standard, high-performance materials [3][27]. Market Overview - The Wind New Materials Index closed at 5779.39 points, up 0.98% week-on-week. The semiconductor materials index rose by 8.12% to 10157.68 points, while other sub-indices also showed positive growth [2][8]. - The top five gainers this week included Aladdin (20.24%), Anji Technology (12.69%), and Shanghai Xinyang (12.29%), while the top five losers included Pulit (-17.28%) and Double Star New Materials (-4.22%) [2][23][25]. Recent Industry Highlights - TSMC's capital expenditure increase is part of its strategy to expand production capacity, having invested over $180 billion since 2020 [3][27]. - The U.S. has announced a 25% tariff on certain imported semiconductors and semiconductor manufacturing equipment, which may impact the market dynamics [27][28]. - Jinfa Technology has invested in a core supplier for Tesla's robots, which is preparing for an IPO, highlighting the growing interest in high-performance engineering plastics [3][28].

行 华福证券 家用电器 2026 年 01 月 18 日 业 研 究 家用电器 从 CES 看 2026 年科技家电新品趋势 投资要点： 从 CES 看 2026 年科技家电新品趋势 研 行情数据 报 告 本周家电板块涨跌幅+0.2%，其中白电/黑电/小家电/厨电板块涨跌 幅分别-2.0%/+6.2%/+3.0%/+6.9%。原材料价格方面，LME 铜、LME 铝环比上周分别+1.91%、-1.04%。 本周纺织服装板块涨跌幅-0.55%，其中纺织制造涨跌幅-0.92%， 服装家纺涨跌幅-0.60%。本周 328 级棉现货 15,931 元/吨（+0.01%）， 美棉 CotlookA75.05 美分/磅（+0.33%），内外棉价差 2209 元/吨 （-1.34%）。 风险提示 原材料涨价；需求不及预期；汇率波动等。 强于大市（维持评级） 行 业 定 期 报 告 当地时间 1 月 6 日至 9 日，2026 年国际消费电子展（CES 2026） 在美国拉斯维加斯举行。国产品牌在扫地机器人、庭院机器人、NAS 私有云存储等品类继续引领行业技术迭代：石头科技推出全球首款采 用轮足结构、具备楼梯清扫能力的扫地机器 ...

Group 1 - The report highlights that the volatility in the Chinese market is expected to drive short-term thematic growth while also indicating a long-term style shift [2][3] - The report notes that the recent cooling of inflation in the U.S. provides a moderate but not overwhelming space for the Federal Reserve's policy adjustments [3][8] - It emphasizes the potential for the Chinese market to undergo a significant long-term style shift during the release of overseas risks, alongside a continued substantial appreciation of the Renminbi [3][4] Group 2 - The semiconductor sector is viewed positively in the short term, with a specific focus on the storage segment due to emerging supply-demand contradictions [3][27] - Long-term investment opportunities are identified in insurance, central state-owned enterprise dividends, anti-involution industries, Chinese concept internet companies, and military trade [3][4] - The report indicates that the technology sector has shown significant gains, while financial real estate and consumer sectors have experienced deeper declines [19][24] Group 3 - The report mentions that the A-share market has seen a notable performance from the Sci-Tech 50 index, which rose by 2.58%, while the Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.45% [12][19] - It points out that the external capital index positions have weakened, with net short positions expanding [35][36] - Upcoming focus will be on U.S. PCE inflation data and Chinese economic indicators [38]

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Outperform the Market" [4] Core Insights - The pig farming sector is experiencing a slow pace of market release, leading to a rebound in pig prices. As of January 16, the pig price is 12.77 CNY/kg, with a week-on-week increase of 0.19 CNY/kg. The average monthly release completion rate is 31%, lower than the same period last year [2][9] - In the beef sector, calf prices are rising due to increased replenishment enthusiasm following the implementation of import beef restrictions. As of January 16, calf prices are 33.03 CNY/kg, up 1.91% week-on-week, indicating a long-term upward trend in beef prices [3][29] - The poultry sector is seeing a decline in chick prices as the market transitions out of a vaccination pause. As of January 16, the price for white feather broiler chicks is 2.74 CNY/chick, down 0.85 CNY/chick from before the pause [3][38] Summary by Sections Pig Farming - The slow release pace in pig farming is pushing prices up, with profits for self-bred and purchased piglets at 7.39 CNY/head and 48.35 CNY/head respectively, both showing week-on-week increases [2][9] - The average weight of pigs being released has increased to 128.85 kg, with a week-on-week rise of 0.31 kg [12][17] - The number of breeding sows has decreased to 39.9 million, down 1.12% from the previous month, indicating a gradual reduction in production capacity [27][28] Beef Sector - The implementation of import beef restrictions is expected to benefit domestic beef prices, with a forecasted upward trend in prices from 2026 to 2027 [29] - The current price for fattened bulls is 25.66 CNY/kg, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 0.59% [29] Poultry Sector - The egg price has increased to 7.29 CNY/kg, up 0.69% week-on-week, driven by pre-holiday stocking [3][42] - The profit margins for broiler chickens and parent stock are showing mixed results, with broiler chicken farming profit at 0.3 CNY/chick and slaughter profit at -0.51 CNY/chick [3][38] Seed Industry - The seed industry is seeing strengthened intellectual property protection, which is expected to enhance market order and accelerate the commercialization of genetically modified organisms [49]

行 华福证券 电力设备 2026 年 01 月 18 日 业 研 究 行 电力设备 产业周跟踪：国网十五五投资高增，商业航天有 望持续催化固态电池 投资要点： 锂电板块核心观点：固态电池助力太空能源，25 年电池产量高增长。 1）2025 年电池产量 1756GWh、同增 6%；2）固态电池助力太空能源、干 法电极提升性能。 业 定 期 报 告 光伏板块核心观点：商务部延续美韩多晶硅反倾销税五年，筑高多晶 硅贸易壁垒，保障国内光伏产业链安全。商务部此次延续对美韩多晶硅的 反倾销税，是一项延续了十余年的产业保护战略，旨在巩固中国光伏产业 链的核心原料自主权。通过维持高额关税，中国持续为本土多晶硅产业创 造稳定的发展环境，有效抵御外部低价冲击。这既是对国内产业合理诉求 的回应，更是在全球能源转型关键期，从上游材料端强化光伏全产业链主 导权的关键布局。 风电板块核心观点：英国 AR7 完成 8.4GW 海风拍卖，广东三山岛柔 直输电工程进展积极。1）英国 AR7 完成 8.4GW 海风拍卖，利好中国供应 链相关企业；2）广东三山岛柔直海缆首段生产完成，项目有望在 2026 年 投产。 核聚变周观点：新奥领跑全球氢硼 ...

究 行 业 定 期 报 告 军工本周观点：聚焦 SpaceX 及国内火箭产业链 投资要点： 本周核心观点： 1 月 15 日，亚马逊低地球轨道卫星将于 2 月 12 日由阿里安太空公司 发射升空。 1 月 15 日，马斯克通过社交平台表示，三年内星舰发射频率将超每小 时一次，明确 SpaceX 终极目标为每年生产 1 万艘星舰。 行 业 研 华福证券 国防军工 本周（1.12-1.16）申万军工指数（801740）下降 4.92%，同期沪深 300 指数下降 0.57%，相对超额-4.35pct，连续多周上涨后指数回调为正常现象。 当下我们认为，投资端应逐步聚焦产业核心——S 链（SpaceX 产业链） +国内火箭产业链，或为速度最快+通胀弹性最大产业核心方向。 一）海外务必重视 SpaceX 产业链： 国防军工 2026 年 01 月 18 日 强于大市（维持评级） 1 月 17 日，SpaceX 发布消息称，猎鹰 9 号火箭从加州 4E 发射台成功 将 NROL-105 送入轨道，完成第 600 次猎鹰系列发射任务。 SpaceX 产业链进度极快，我们预计星舰和 V3 卫星预计 27 年实现商 业化部署， ...

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Outperform the Market" indicating that the overall return of the industry is expected to exceed the market benchmark index by more than 5% in the next 6 months [69]. Core Insights - The report highlights a strong recovery in investment and financing activities in the CXO sector, with significant increases in both primary and secondary market financing in the biotech industry [4][18][23]. - The JPM conference revealed that many CXO companies expressed optimism for 2026, driven by project structure optimization, improved operational efficiency, and sustained customer demand [4][28]. - The report emphasizes the importance of technological innovation in the pharmaceutical sector for 2026, with a focus on innovative drugs and medical devices [5]. Summary by Sections Investment and Financing Trends - Since September 2025, overseas primary market financing has shown strong recovery, with a total of $8.72 billion in Q4 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 2.4% but a quarter-on-quarter increase of 21% [4][18]. - In January 2026, the total financing amount reached $3.34 billion, indicating a significant recovery compared to previous months [4][18]. - The secondary market for biotech also saw a robust recovery, with Q4 2025 financing totaling $19.28 billion, a year-on-year increase of 111% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 149.5% [23][26]. Market Performance Review - During the week of January 12-16, 2026, the CITIC Pharmaceutical Index fell by 0.72%, underperforming the CSI 300 Index by 0.2 percentage points, ranking 16th among CITIC's primary industry classifications [3][32]. - The pharmaceutical sector has shown a year-to-date increase of 6.9% in 2026, outperforming the CSI 300 Index by 4.7 percentage points, ranking 7th among industry classifications [3][32]. - The top-performing stocks during this week included Baolait (up 48.8%), Hualan Biological (up 32.7%), and Tianzhihang (up 27.7%) [47]. Company Highlights from JPM Conference - WuXi AppTec reported a revenue of 45.5 billion yuan in 2025, a year-on-year increase of 21.4%, and a net profit of 15 billion yuan, up 41.3% [30]. - WuXi Biologics achieved significant growth with a revenue increase driven by its dual antibody business, which saw a year-on-year growth of 120% [30]. - Lonza expects a revenue growth of 20-21% in 2025, with a core EBITDA margin of 30-31% [30]. Investment Strategy - The report suggests focusing on innovative drugs, particularly those with revenue realization and unexpected business development outcomes, as well as cutting-edge technology platforms like gene therapy and CAR-T [5]. - In the medical device sector, attention should be given to equipment replenishment and bidding, particularly in surgical robots and endoscopes [5].