投资要点： 一、中期选举有何看点？ 宏 观 专 题 参议院更换约 1/3，众议院全换。中期选举是夹在两次总统选举间 的国会换届选举。美国国会是美国的立法机构，此次选举将决定 2027 年-2028 年间两党在国会的席位数分配，影响特朗普本轮任期后半程的 政策落地。参议院中将有约三分之一席位的议员到期改选，而众议院 席位全部重选。参众两院的选举流程基本一致，先在各州开展初选， 推出席位的党派候选人，然后在 11 月 3 日最终投票。区别主要在于代 表选区不同。参议院的席位按照每个州 2 位固定分配，而众议院席位 按照依据人口比例划分选区。 悬念主要在众议院。当前国会中，共和党横扫参众两院。在参议 院变更的 35 个席位中，约 16 个席位为共和党的坚固票仓。民主党若 想要扭转局势较为困难，参议院或继续由共和党或继续执掌。而众议 院的形势胶着，民主党只需夺回 3 个席位即可夺取控制权。 关注 3 月"超级星期二"和 6 月选举高峰期。首先，是 3 月 3 日 的"超级星期二"。在这天，将有 3 个州将最早开启初选。其中，北卡 来罗纳州有一个摇摆的参议院席位；而德克萨斯州在众议院有 38 个席 位，规模仅次于加州。 ...

投资要点 华福证券 2026 年 1 月 17 日 医疗与消费周报——生物医药商业秘密的保护发 展态势与体系构建（2026.1.12-2026.1.16） ➢ 近期观点 1、医药指数本周关注 1 个子行业录得正收益。 2、生物医药产业作为高投入、长周期的技术密集型产业，其商业 秘密保护已成为维系核心竞争力的关键。当前保护体系呈现管理、 技术、应急三位一体的纵深趋势，覆盖全生命周期风险。维权途径 日益多元，行政、民事、刑事手段及"刑民交织"策略为权利人提供 有力保障。政府层面积极构建公共服务体系，推动保护范式从事 后救济向事前预警、事中监控的全链条服务延伸，以护航产业创 新与安全发展。 团队成员 分析师： 赵月(S0210524050016) zy30563@hfzq.com.cn 相关报告 ➢ 风险提示 政策监管风险；市场竞争与盈利；技术迭代与研发风险 证 券 研 究 报 告 略 研 究 诚信专业 发现价值 1 请务必阅读报告末页的声明 策 策 略 定 期 报 告 华福证券 1、资负共振驱动保险板块估值修复——2026.01 2、【华福策略】GEO 等走出右侧趋势——主题形 态学输出 0113——2026.0 ...

证券研究报告|策略定期研究 2026年01月17日 存储器等走出右侧突破 ——主题形态学输出0116 Ø 风险提示：历史经验不代表未来;行业不确定性风险;国内经济复苏速度不及预期;海外降 息节奏不及预期;地缘政治风险。 2 证券分析师： 研究助理： 周浦寒 S0210524040007 杨逸帆 S0210124110046 请务必阅读报告末页的重要声明 华福证券 华福证券 投资要点 n 主题形态学最新输出 n 风险提示 目 华福证券 华福证券 Ø 主题形态学，0116最新输出： l 1）右侧突破，新增：存储器、钙钛矿电池、健康中国等。 l 2）右侧趋势，新增：显示屏、钴矿、长江存储、先进封装、AI应用、机器人等。 l 3）底部企稳，持续有效：恒生创新药，快手平台，中证红利，金融科技，恒生汽 车等。 l 4）底部反转，持续有效：甲醇，恒生创新药，工业软件等。 录 3 华福证券 华福证券 主题形态学的最新输出 备注：1）本文数据更新至2026/01/16。下同。2）主题形态构建的具体内容参考2025/12/14发布的专题报告《主题形态学三板斧》。3）主题形态的已持续天 数，指信号出现至今的天数。报告对新增主题进行 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided in the content about the report industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the sentiment of interest - rate bonds was strong with slightly declining yields, and credit bond yields generally followed suit. The 10 - year ultra - long - term credit bonds performed strongly, and the spreads of secondary perpetual (Two - Perpetual, or "Two - Yong") bonds narrowed across the board. The excess spreads of industrial and urban investment perpetual bonds decreased slightly. [3][4] - Vanke's debt extension plan was better than expected, leading to an increase in the secondary prices of its outstanding bonds. However, due to the lack of unexpected industry support policies and the will to ensure rigid payment, the market remains cautious about central and state - owned enterprise real - estate bonds with the "high - debt, high - leverage, and high - turnover" model. It is recommended to maintain a wait - and - see attitude towards real - estate bonds in the short term. [5][40] - After the New Year, the performance of Two - Yong bonds was strong. The growth of dividend - insurance premium income may have increased the demand for ultra - long - term Two - Yong bonds, causing a significant decline in yields. Considering the central bank's strong intention to support the market, there may still be room for the spreads of Two - Yong bonds to compress. [5][40] 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Credit Bonds Follow Interest Rates Downward, Ultra - Long - Term Credit Bonds Perform Strongly - Interest - rate bond yields: The yields of 3Y, 5Y, 7Y, and 10Y China Development Bank bonds decreased by 2BP, 4BP, 3BP, and 1BP respectively, while the 1Y yield increased by 2BP. [3][11] - Credit bond yields: Overall, they followed the decline in interest rates. The yields of 1Y AA+ and above - grade credit bonds remained flat, while those of other grades decreased by 1BP; 3Y AA+ and above - grade yields decreased by 1BP, and other grades decreased by 3 - 4BP; 5Y AA+ grade yields decreased by 5BP, and other grades decreased by 1 - 2BP; 7Y credit bond yields of all grades decreased by 2 - 3BP; 10Y AA+ and above - grade yields decreased by 4 - 5BP, and AA grade decreased by 2BP. [3][11] - Credit spreads: Generally stable, with the 10 - year ultra - long - term credit performing strongly. The spreads of 1Y all grades narrowed by 1 - 2BP; 3Y AA+ and above spreads remained flat, and other grades narrowed by 2 - 3BP; 5Y AA+ spreads narrowed by 2BP, and other grades widened by 1 - 2BP; 7Y AAA spreads remained flat, and other grades widened by 1BP; 10Y AA+ and above spreads narrowed by 3 - 4BP, and AA grade spreads narrowed by 1BP. [3][11] 3.2 Urban Investment Bond Spreads Mostly Decline by 0 - 1BP - By external rating: The credit spreads of external - rated AAA - level urban investment platforms generally remained flat, while those of AA and AA+ levels generally decreased by 1BP. [4][16] - By administrative level: The credit spreads of provincial and municipal - level platforms generally remained flat compared with last week, while those of district - county - level platforms decreased by 1BP. [4][22] 3.3 Industrial Bond Spreads Remain Stable Overall, Vanke's Spreads Compress Significantly - Real - estate bonds: Central - state - owned enterprise real - estate bond spreads widened by 9BP, state - owned enterprise real - estate bond spreads widened by 4BP, mixed - ownership real - estate bond spreads converged significantly by 451BP, and private - enterprise real - estate bond spreads increased by 14BP. Vanke's spreads decreased by 4285BP. [4][27] - Other industrial bonds: AAA - grade coal bond spreads remained flat, and other grades decreased by 1BP; AA+ steel bond spreads decreased by 3BP, and AAA remained flat; the spreads of all grades of chemical bonds remained flat. [4][27] 3.4 Two - Yong Bond Spreads Narrow Across the Board, Yields of Medium - and Long - Term Varieties Decline Significantly - 1Y Two - Yong bonds: Yields of all grades decreased by 1BP, and spreads compressed by 2BP. - 3Y Two - Yong bonds: Yields of all grades decreased by 5 - 6BP, and spreads compressed by 3 - 5BP. - 5Y Two - Yong bonds: Yields of all grades decreased by 5 - 6BP, and spreads compressed by 1 - 2BP. [35] 3.5 Excess Spreads of Industrial and Urban Investment Perpetual Bonds Decrease Slightly - Industrial AAA - grade 3Y perpetual bonds: Excess spreads converged by 0.43BP to 14.41BP, at the 36.98% quantile since 2015. - Industrial 5Y perpetual bonds: Excess spreads remained the same as last week at 13.20BP, at the 32.28% quantile since 2015. - Urban investment AAA - grade 3Y perpetual bonds: Excess spreads decreased by 0.13BP to 4.51BP, at the 3.52% quantile. - Urban investment 5Y perpetual bonds: Excess spreads decreased by 0.79BP to 10.13BP, at the 18.64% quantile. [38] 3.6 Vanke's Extension Plan is Better than Expected, Two - Yong Bond Spreads Still Have Compression Space - Vanke: Its debt extension plan was better than expected, and the secondary prices of its outstanding bonds increased. However, due to the lack of relevant policies, the market is still cautious about central and state - owned enterprise real - estate bonds, and it is recommended to maintain a wait - and - see attitude in the short term. [5][40] - Two - Yong bonds: After the New Year, they performed strongly. The growth of dividend - insurance premium income may have increased the demand for ultra - long - term Two - Yong bonds. Considering the central bank's support, there may still be room for spread compression. [5][40] 3.7 Credit Spread Database Compilation Instructions - Market credit spreads, Two - Yong spreads, and urban investment/industrial perpetual bond spreads are calculated based on ChinaBond medium - and short - term note and ChinaBond perpetual bond data, with historical quantiles starting from the beginning of 2015. - Urban investment and industrial bond - related credit spreads are compiled and statistically analyzed by Huafu Securities Research Institute, with historical quantiles starting from the beginning of 2015. - Sample selection criteria: Industrial and urban investment bonds select medium - term notes and public - offering corporate bonds, excluding guaranteed bonds and perpetual bonds. Bonds with a remaining term of less than 0.5 years or more than 5 years are excluded from the statistical sample. Industrial and urban investment bonds use external entity ratings, while commercial banks use ChinaBond implied debt ratings. [46]

Investment Rating - The coal industry is rated as "stronger than the market" [7] Core Views - The report emphasizes that the coal industry is currently experiencing a transformation, with policies aimed at energy security and a shift in supply dynamics. The coal price is expected to stabilize, with potential fluctuations in the short term [5][6] - The report highlights the limited elasticity of coal supply due to strict capacity controls and increasing mining difficulties, particularly in eastern regions. This is expected to lead to a concentration of production in western areas, raising supply costs [5] - The report suggests that despite weak macroeconomic conditions affecting coal demand, the rigid supply and rising costs will support coal prices, which are anticipated to maintain a volatile upward trend [5] Summary by Sections 1. Market Overview - The coal index experienced a slight decline of 3.11%, underperforming the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index by 2.54 percentage points. Year-to-date, the coal index has increased by 2.96% [13] 2. Thermal Coal - As of January 16, the Qinhuangdao 5500K thermal coal price is 695 CNY/ton, down 4 CNY/ton week-on-week, with a year-on-year decrease of 66 CNY/ton [3][32] - Daily average production from 462 sample mines is 5.467 million tons, a week-on-week increase of 15,000 tons but a year-on-year decrease of 6.2% [3][42] - The report notes a significant drop in daily consumption at major power plants, with inventory levels slightly increasing [3][46] 3. Coking Coal - The price of main coking coal at Jingtang Port has risen to 1,770 CNY/ton, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 150 CNY/ton [4][76] - Daily average production from 523 sample mines is 769,000 tons, with a year-on-year decrease of 2.7% [4][76] - The report indicates that the coking coal market is experiencing upward price adjustments, driven by supply constraints and increased demand from steel production [4][76] 4. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies with strong resource endowments and stable operating performance, such as China Shenhua, China Coal Energy, and Shaanxi Coal and Chemical Industry [6] - Companies with production growth potential and those benefiting from a bottoming coal price cycle are also highlighted, including Yanzhou Coal Mining, Huayang Co., and Gansu Energy [6] - The report recommends considering companies with integrated coal and power operations to mitigate cyclical volatility, such as Shaanxi Energy and Xinji Energy [6]

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Outperform the Market" [8] Core Insights - TSMC reported strong Q4 financial results and optimistic performance outlook, with a capital expenditure plan of up to $56 billion for 2026, a 37% increase from the actual spending of $40.9 billion in 2025, marking a record high for the company [3][4] - The demand for AI is real and strong, with high capital expenditures expected to continue over the next three years, significantly exceeding the $101 billion spent in the past three years, focusing on supporting AI demand and global advanced process capacity expansion [4] - The global average utilization rate for 8-inch wafers is projected to rise to 85-90% in 2026, significantly better than the 75-80% in 2025, driven by the increasing demand for power-related ICs due to applications like AI servers and Edge AI [5] Recommendations - Focus on Taiwanese semiconductor supply chain companies such as Shenghui Integrated, Yaxiang Integrated, and Hanzhong Precision [6] - Pay attention to domestic companies with high potential in the measurement segment, including Jingce Electronics, Zhongke Feimeasure, Saiteng Co., and Aiko Optoelectronics [6] - Consider companies involved in clean rooms and medium systems like Zhengfan Technology, Shengjian Technology, Meier Technology, and Zhichun Technology [6] - Look into testing probe companies such as Helin Weina and Qiangyi Co. [6] - Core process equipment firms include Northern Huachuang, Zhongwei Company, Tuojing Technology, Weidao Nano, and Maiwei Co. [6] - Advanced packaging companies like Kuaike Intelligent and Xinqi Micro-Assembly are also recommended [6] - Third-party testing firms such as Sutest and Shengke Nano should be considered [6]

行 华福证券 机械设备 2026 年 01 月 17 日 业 研 究 行 业 定 期 报 告 机械设备 3C 设备周观点：Meta 押注 AI 可穿戴设备， Open AI 或将推出首款硬件产品 投资要点： Meta 拟扩大 AI 眼镜投资 据 XR 控引用彭博社报道，Meta 公司首席技术官安德鲁·博斯沃 思通过内部备忘录确认，已正式启动裁员计划，核心战略将从元宇宙 全面转向 AI 可穿戴设备。此外，Meta 及其制造合作伙伴依视路陆逊 梯卡正考虑在 2026 年底前将合作生产的 AI 智能眼镜年产能提高一倍 至 2000 万副，并可能根据市场情况进一步提升至 3000 万副。 龙头积极布局眼镜市场 随着苹果、三星等硬件厂商以及小米、百度、阿里等企业的入场， 智能眼镜赛道愈发火爆。 Meta：据 XR 控报道，依视路陆逊梯卡集团近日发文表示，其与 Meta 合作推出的智能眼镜市场表现强劲，部分款式上市即售罄， Ray-Ban Meta 系列年销量同比增长超过 200%。 苹果：据映维网 Nweon 报道，彭博社引述知情人士称，苹果正优 先开发能与 Meta 竞争的 AI 眼镜，第一款智能眼镜或不配备显示屏， ...

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Outperform the Market" indicating that the overall industry return is expected to exceed the market benchmark index by more than 5% in the next 6 months [15]. Core Insights - The competition between NVIDIA and Google in the AI chip market is heavily reliant on TSMC's CoWoS advanced packaging, which is currently a critical bottleneck in the AI chip supply chain [3]. - TSMC's capital expenditure for 2026 is projected to be between $52 billion and $56 billion, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 27% to 37% due to strong AI demand [3]. - NVIDIA is collaborating with Amkor to expand its production capacity in the U.S. from 2026 to 2029, as TSMC reallocates some advanced packaging orders to OSAT manufacturers [3]. - Samsung and Intel are actively enhancing their advanced process capabilities, with Samsung aiming to increase its global 2nm monthly capacity to 21,000 wafers by the end of 2026 [4]. - HBM is identified as a key battleground in the competition between NVIDIA's GPUs and Google's TPUs, influencing both performance limits and the actual deliverable quantities of chips [4]. - NAND and SSD demand is significantly amplified in AI data centers, with NVIDIA's Rubin platform enhancing data sharing and reuse, potentially increasing SSD demand [5]. - There is a rising demand for inference cards as large model vendors seek alternatives to NVIDIA's chips to reduce dependency and costs [6]. Summary by Sections Advanced Process and Packaging - TSMC leads in advanced packaging with CoWoS capacity constraints impacting NVIDIA and Google's AI chip output [3]. - Amkor and ASE are being utilized to alleviate TSMC's capacity pressure, with Amkor investing $5 billion in advanced packaging facilities in Arizona [3][4]. Storage Side - HBM is crucial for the competition between NVIDIA and Google, while on-chip SRAM is emerging as a new direction for inference storage [4]. - The collaboration between NVIDIA and Groq focuses on inference technology utilizing on-chip SRAM [4]. Client Side - Major AI model vendors are diversifying their computational resources, with Anthropic planning to deploy up to 1 million TPUs by 2026 and OpenAI partnering with Cerebras for a large-scale AI inference platform [6]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on sectors within the semiconductor supply chain, including foundries, advanced packaging, storage, and AI model applications, amidst the competitive landscape between NVIDIA and Google [7].

Group 1 - The insurance sector has entered a valuation recovery phase since 2025, with a cumulative increase of 31.31% in the insurance sector, continuing strong momentum into 2026, driven by improved capital market sentiment and rising equity markets, leading to a collective strength in insurance stocks, with major companies like China Ping An reaching multi-year highs [1][7]. - The new individual insurance premium growth for major insurers such as China Life, Ping An, Taikang, and Xinhua has exceeded expectations, with first-day growth rates reaching 40-60%, driven by the "deposit migration" effect, product structure optimization, and the ongoing reinforcement of anti-involution policies in the insurance industry [1][8][16]. Group 2 - Regulatory measures have opened up space for asset-side expansion, with significant potential for increasing equity allocation by insurance funds. The total investment return rate for listed insurance companies has shifted to a range of 5%-6%, with a systematic increase in investment yield driven by regulatory policy collaboration [2][22]. - The insurance sector is expected to benefit from the recovery of the real estate market, with improved financing conditions for property companies and a narrowing of credit risk premiums, enhancing the valuation framework for the insurance sector [2][27]. Group 3 - The recent strong performance of the insurance sector reflects a resonance repair driven by multiple positive factors on both the asset and liability sides. The "deposit migration" trend has brought continuous incremental premiums, while the adjustment of product interest rates has effectively controlled long-term cost pressures [3][27]. - The regulatory adjustments have significantly expanded the equity allocation space for insurance funds, allowing for a more flexible allocation of equity assets and enhancing overall portfolio returns [21][22].

Group 1 - The food and beverage sector is showing signs of recovery after a prolonged adjustment period, with macroeconomic indicators stabilizing and the restaurant industry experiencing a rebound in daily operations [2][14][15] - The report suggests that investment opportunities in 2026 should focus on three main directions: capturing the recovery rhythm, identifying growth opportunities within existing markets, and leveraging emotional consumption trends [2][3][4] - The restaurant industry is expected to lead the recovery, with a projected annual revenue of 5.7 trillion yuan in 2025, reflecting a 3.3% year-on-year growth [20][26] Group 2 - The report highlights the importance of focusing on demand-driven scenarios, channels, and product innovations, particularly in the snack and beverage sectors, which are expected to continue their growth trajectories [3][4][66] - The snack retail sector is experiencing significant growth, with a projected GMV of 600 billion yuan by 2029, driven by the expansion of major players like Wanchen Group and Mingming Hen Mang [68][74] - The beverage and low-alcohol sectors are also identified as areas of growth, with companies like Kuaijishan and Nongfu Spring expected to benefit from ongoing market expansion [4][66] Group 3 - The beer sector is anticipated to benefit directly from the recovery of the restaurant industry, with a notable trend towards premiumization and a shift in consumer preferences towards higher-priced products [40][41] - The white wine industry is undergoing a rebalancing, with demand expected to show weak recovery in 2026, characterized by a concentration of high-priced products and minor innovations in mid-priced segments [48][49][64] - The report emphasizes the need for companies to manage supply effectively in response to weak demand, with a focus on optimizing product offerings and enhancing operational efficiency [49][53][64]