投资要点： 固 定 收 货币市场：本周 OMO 合计净投放 8128 亿，周二 6M 买断式回购到期 6000 亿，央行在周四超额续作 3000 亿。跨年后 OMO 大额净回笼和政府 债缴款已使银行间水位大幅降低，而本周政府债缴款主要集中在周一，而 周二到期的买断式逆回购尚未续作，资金上半周边际收紧，但周四买断式 回购落地后逐步转松，周五 DR001 回落至 1.32%。 益 定 期 报 告 本周质押式回购成交量周中回落下半周恢复，日均成交量环比上升 1.12 万亿至 8.62 万亿；质押式回购整体规模先降后升，但周五仍处于 13 万 亿下方。大型银行净融出先降后升，中小型银行净融出周中明显回升，周 四后再度回落但仍高于上周；银行整体净融出先降后升，周五再度升回 5 万亿。本周非银刚性融出先升后降，整体略高于上周，其中其他产品、理 财融出上升。非银刚性融入维持震荡周五略低于上周。资金缺口指数周三 升至-3639，此后逐步回落，周五降至-7620，略高于上周的-8097，但仍低于 中性水平。 本周资金边际收紧可能是由于外生扰动与央行投放的错位导致。12 月 政府存款降幅仅 1 万亿，使得 12 月超储率低于我们 ...

有色金属 2026 年 01 月 18 日 行 业 研 究 有色金属 20260118 周报：海外宏观和地缘风险升温，银价 延续加速上涨 投资要点： 行 业 定 期 报 告 贵金属：海外宏观和地缘风险升温，银价延续加速上涨。本周海外宏 观和地缘风险升温，推升贵金属避险属性。特朗普政府就美联储华盛顿总 部翻新项目费用对美联储主席鲍威尔发起刑事调查。此次令人意外的刑事 调查使特朗普与鲍威尔的长期矛盾升级。鲍威尔指出，这本质上关乎美联 储能否继续根据证据和经济状况来设定利率，还是将受到政治左右。美国 劳动力市场降温迹象促使市场消化年内降息75个基点预期。短期而言，美 联储降息预期摇摆，整体呈现易涨难跌格局；中长期而言，全球关税政策 和地缘政治的不确定性背景下，避险和滞涨交易仍是黄金交易的核心，长 期配置价值不改。个股：黄金关注招金灵宝万国紫金黄金，A股关注紫金、 中金、赤峰及西金等；H股关注潼关、山金、招矿及集海等。银铂钯均为黄 金的贝塔，个股关注盛达、湖银、豫光、贵研及浩通等。 工业金属：降息预期博弈，铜铝价格震荡。铜，近期宏观市场对于价 格的扰动再度回升，国内央行下调利率，美联储话题性十足，而地缘局势 冲突的隐 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected relative price increase of over 20% against the market benchmark within the next six months [6][16]. Core Insights - The company anticipates a net profit increase of at least 30% for the fiscal year ending December 31, 2025, compared to the previous year, driven by increased sales of 1.74 refractive index lenses and other multifunctional products, along with improved operational efficiency and financing structure [3][4]. - The company is positioned as a leading manufacturer of high-refractive lenses in China, with significant cost advantages due to its scale and production capabilities. It is also expanding its overseas production capacity to mitigate tariff impacts [4][5]. - The smart glasses market is projected to grow significantly, with a 110% year-on-year increase in shipments expected in the first half of 2025. The company has secured partnerships with major players in the smart glasses sector, enhancing its revenue potential from XR (extended reality) business [5][6]. Financial Projections - Revenue growth rates are forecasted at 20% for 2025, 21% for 2026, and 19% for 2027, with corresponding net profit growth rates of 31%, 25%, and 23% respectively. The report adjusts previous estimates slightly upward [6][10]. - The company's earnings per share (EPS) is projected to increase from 0.89 in 2024 to 1.79 by 2027, reflecting strong profitability growth [6][10]. Financial Data Summary - The company’s main revenue is expected to reach RMB 2,477 million in 2025, with a net profit of RMB 559 million. By 2027, revenue is projected to grow to RMB 3,582 million, with net profit reaching RMB 861 million [7][10]. - The report highlights a consistent improvement in gross margin, expected to rise from 38.6% in 2024 to 42.1% by 2027, indicating enhanced operational efficiency [10].

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Outperform the Market" [7] Core Insights - The report highlights a strong recovery in investment and financing activities in the CXO sector, with significant growth in both primary and secondary markets for biotech [4][18][23] - The JPM conference indicated a positive outlook for 2026, with companies expressing optimism about demand recovery and operational efficiency improvements [4][28] - The report emphasizes the importance of technological innovation in the pharmaceutical sector for 2026, focusing on innovative drugs and medical devices [5][32] Summary by Sections Investment Opportunities and Trends - Primary market financing for overseas biotech reached $8.72 billion in Q4 2025, showing a year-on-year decrease of 2.4% but a quarter-on-quarter increase of 21% [4][18] - In January 2026, primary market financing totaled $3.34 billion, indicating a strong recovery [4][18] - Secondary market financing for overseas biotech in Q4 2025 was $19.28 billion, a year-on-year increase of 111% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 149.5% [4][23] - The report notes that companies like WuXi AppTec and Danaher exceeded performance expectations, with a general recovery in demand for Pharma and Biotech orders [4][28] Market Performance Review - The CITIC Pharmaceutical Index fell by 0.72% from January 12 to January 16, 2026, underperforming the CSI 300 Index by 0.2 percentage points [3][32] - The pharmaceutical sector has seen a 6.9% increase since the beginning of 2026, outperforming the CSI 300 Index by 4.7 percentage points [3][32] - The top-performing stocks during this period included Baolai Te (+48.8%), Hualan Biological Engineering (+32.7%), and Tianzhihang (+27.7%) [3][47] Company Performance and Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies such as WuXi AppTec, Beigene, and others for potential investment opportunities in 2026 [5][54] - The report outlines a strategy for innovative drugs, emphasizing revenue realization, unexpected business development, and cutting-edge technology platforms [5][32] - The medical device sector is highlighted for its potential in equipment replenishment and innovative consumables benefiting from centralized procurement [5][32]

行 华福证券 基础化工 2026 年 01 月 18 日 业 研 究 行 业 定 期 报 告 基础化工 行业周报：巴斯夫湛江一体化基地聚乙烯装置投 产后首车交付，SABIC 出售两大资产 投资要点： 本周板块行情：本周，上证综合指数下跌 0.45%，创业板指数上涨 1%， 沪深 300 下跌 0.57%，中信基础化工指数上涨 1.27%，申万化工指数上涨 0.9%。 化工各子行业板块涨跌幅：本周，化工板块涨跌幅前五的子行业分别为电 子化学品(5.16%)、橡胶助剂(4.66%)、钾肥(4.23%)、合成树脂(3.67%)、磷肥及 磷化工(2.85%)；化工板块涨跌幅后五的子行业分别为改性塑料(-4.01%)、钛白 粉(-2.84%)、橡胶制品(-1.43%)、轮胎(-1.18%)、纯碱(-0.85%)。 本周行业主要动态： 巴斯夫湛江一体化基地聚乙烯装置投产后首车交付。巴斯夫湛江一体化 基地再度迎来重要里程碑全新聚乙烯(PE)装置正式投产，并顺利完成首车 产品交付。2026 年 1 月 8 日，首批巴聚赋聚乙烯产品由专业运输车辆从湛 江基地发出，准时抵达客户仓库。这一成果不仅彰显了巴斯夫"以客户为 中心"的服 ...

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Outperform the Market," indicating that the overall return of the industry is expected to exceed the market benchmark index by more than 5% in the next 6 months [14]. Core Insights - Meta has signed a nuclear power agreement exceeding 6 GW, becoming the largest nuclear power purchaser among large tech companies. The agreement includes significant small modular reactor (SMR) projects, supporting Oklo's project in Ohio with up to 1.2 GW of power and TerraPower's two small reactors with a future purchase agreement for 2.1 GW [3][4]. - The demand for electricity in U.S. data centers is projected to increase by at least 30% by 2030, making electricity a bottleneck for AI industry development. Nuclear power, being clean and stable, provides long-term energy security for Meta's AI data centers, promoting the implementation of new small reactor technologies and aligning with low-carbon goals [4][5]. Summary by Sections Nuclear Power Agreements - Meta's agreements include collaborations with Oklo and TerraPower, focusing on small modular reactors to meet the growing energy demands of AI data centers [3][4]. Energy Demand and AI - The report highlights the increasing electricity consumption in data centers and positions small modular reactors as a key solution to address the energy needs of AI technologies [4][5]. Investment Opportunities - The report suggests monitoring several companies involved in the SMR sector, including: 1. Jingye Intelligent, which plans to establish an SMR subsidiary focused on AI data center power supply [5]. 2. Jiadian Co., whose helium fan is the only power device for the fourth-generation high-temperature gas-cooled reactor [5]. 3. Guoguang Electric, which provides critical components for ITER projects [5]. 4. Lanshi Heavy Industry, covering upstream nuclear fuel systems to downstream spent fuel processing [5]. 5. Kexin Electromechanical, which has developed high-temperature gas-cooled reactor products [5]. 6. Hailu Heavy Industry, servicing various reactor types including third and fourth generation [5]. 7. Jiangsu Shentong, which has secured over 90% of orders for nuclear-grade valves in new nuclear power projects in China [5].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the industry [4] Core Insights - December home sales in the U.S. exceeded expectations, indicating a potential improvement in consumer demand related to the real estate chain [3] - META aims to double the production capacity of AI RAY-BAN glasses to 20 million units by 2026, suggesting investment opportunities in companies like 康耐特光学, 明月镜片, and 博士眼镜 [3] - Despite weak domestic consumption in home goods and stationery, leading companies are at historical low stock prices, presenting opportunities for valuation recovery [3] Summary by Sections Real Estate and Related Consumption - U.S. home sales in December reached an annualized total of 4.35 million units, up 1.4% year-on-year and 5.1% month-on-month, surpassing expectations of 4.22 million units [6] - The Trump administration has announced plans to enhance housing affordability, including a proposal to prohibit institutional investors from purchasing single-family rental homes [6] Home Goods and Furniture - The home goods sector continues to face challenges, with a reported 4.4% year-on-year decline in sales for large-scale home goods markets in December [41] - The furniture manufacturing industry saw a cumulative revenue decline of 9.1% year-on-year from January to November [43] Paper and Packaging - As of January 16, 2026, prices for various paper products showed mixed trends, with double glue paper at 4725 CNY/ton (unchanged) and corrugated paper down to 2725 CNY/ton (a decrease of 95.63 CNY/ton) [48] - The report highlights a decline in the revenue of the paper and paper products industry, with a cumulative year-on-year revenue drop of 2.7% from January to November [63] Consumer Goods - The medical segment of the consumer goods sector is expected to see growth, with strategic initiatives aimed at enhancing product offerings and operational excellence [5] - The stationery sector is recommended for investment, particularly in companies like 晨光股份, which is expected to maintain steady growth [5] New Tobacco Products - The report notes ongoing investigations into Chinese competitors by British American Tobacco regarding electronic cigarette regulations in the U.S., indicating potential market shifts [10]

行 华福证券 机械设备 2026 年 01 月 18 日 业 研 究 行 业 定 期 报 机械设备 PCB 设备周观点：CoWoP 技术加速落地，玻璃 基板有望年内商业化 投资要点： 沪电搭建前沿技术平台，CoWoP 加速落地 告 近日沪电股份公告，拟开展"高密度光电集成线路板项目"，搭 建 CoWoP 等前沿技术与 mSAP 等先进工艺的孵化平台，待相关技术工 艺验证成熟并具备产业化条件后，投建高密度光电集成线路板的规模 化生产线。项目计划投资总额为 3 亿美元，达产后预计年新增产能 130 万片高密度光电集成线路板。 玻璃基板有望年内商业化 根据半导体产业纵横报道，玻璃基板行业正经历从技术验证向早 期量产的关键转折，2026 年有望成为玻璃基板小批量商业化出货的节 点。Yole Group 指出，2025 年至 2030 年期间，半导体玻璃晶圆出货量 的复合年增长率将超过 10%。 根据半导体行业观察报道，随着玻璃基板的商业化进程日益临近， SK、LG 和三星等公司正迅速扩大与材料和工艺供应商的合作：SK 集 团旗下 SKC 正通过其子公司 Absolics 加速推进玻璃基板的量产准备工 作；LG 旗下的 ...

行 半导体 2026 年 01 月 18 日 业 研 究 行 业 定 期 报 告 半导体 台积电 CAPEX 指引超预期，关注长鑫上市进展 ——大科技海外周报第 2 期 投资要点： 台积电 CAPEX 超预期，AI 需求旺盛，看好算力产业链。 4Q25 超预期：台积电于 1 月 15 日召开 4Q25 法说会，公司 4Q25 营收达 337 亿美元，YoY +25.5%，QoQ +1.9%，超出前期指引上线（332 亿至 334 亿）；归母净利润 5057.4 亿新台币，YoY +35%，毛利率提升 至 62.3%，超指引上线（59%至 61%），净利率提升至 48.3%。 CAPEX 指引超预期：公司指引 2026 年营收预计增长近 30%，1Q26 指引为 346 亿-358 亿美元（中值环比增 4.4%），公司 2026 年 CAPEX 预计在 520 至 560 亿美元之间，同比大幅增长，创历史新高。 AI 需求旺盛：公司在法说会中表示，经过和下游客户反复沟通验 证，确认 AI 需求是真实且强劲的。公司上调了 2024-2029 年 AI 加速 器收入 CAGR 指引至 55%~59%。 看好算力产业 ...

行 297 华福证券 机械设备 2026 年 01 月 17 日 业 研 究 机械设备 OpenAI 押注超声路线，Merge Labs 开辟脑机新赛道 岩山科技、汉威科技、三博脑科、创新医疗、东方中科、翔宇医 疗、熵基科技、诚益通、伟思医疗、麦澜德、爱朋医疗、倍益康等。 风险提示 投资要点： 种子轮融资亮眼，技术路线独树一帜 行 业 定 期 报 告 近期，超声脑机接口公司 Merge Labs 完成约 2.5 亿美元种子轮融 资，估值达 8.5 亿美元。此次融资由 OpenAI 领投，其 CEO Sam Altman 还以个人身份参与创办并出资。不同于主流脑机接口技术，Merge Labs 聚焦超声为核心的非侵入或极低侵入式路线，绕开传统"电极—神经 元"范式，通过分子工程让神经活动在声学等物理量上"可见"，再 借助超声的颅骨穿透优势实现神经信号的读取与调控。 技术定位居中互补，仍存多重挑战 当前脑机接口主要分为非侵入式、植入式及低侵入式三类路径， Merge Labs 的超声路线试图在非侵入式（安全但分辨率有限）与植入 式（信号清晰但有外科风险、伦理监管问题）之间寻找平衡，其超声 的深部穿透能力与"软接口 ...