2025 年 10 月 17 日 金 融 工 程 金 融 工 周期风格占比提升，投资策略市值下沉—— 权益基金月度观察（2025/10） 投资要点： 市场表现 权益基金多元策略概况 绩优基金月度跟踪 券 研 究 评级跃升基金展现了基金显著的业绩提升和管理优化能力，其评 级的提升反映了基金投资策略显著适配当前市场环境，本月评级 跃升基金共计 10 只。 报 风险提示 告 本报告所有分析均基于公开信息，不构成任何投资建议；若市场环境或政 策因素发生不利变化将可能造成行业发展表现不及预期；报告采用的样本 数据有限，存在样本不足以代表整体市场的风险，且数据处理统计方式可 能存在误差；过往业绩不代表未来表现；历史规律总结仅供参考，或不会 完全重演。 团队成员 分析师： 李杨(S0210524100005) ly30676@hfzq.com.cn 分析师： 林依源(S0210525010001) lyy30715@hfzq.com.cn 相关报告 1、高维宏观周期驱动风格、行业月报(2025/9):优 选小盘、红利风格——2025.10.16 2、9 月市场上涨，跟踪 Smart Beta 的量化基金跑 赢基准——量化基 ...

宏 观 研 究 2025 年 10 月 16 日 信贷社融同步降温，货币宽松空间打开 投资要点： 宏 观 点 评 新增贷款并未延续季末上冲趋势，Q3 月均较上半年再度降温，9 月居 民短期贷款同比大幅少增；企业中长贷延续回稳态势。9 月新增贷款 1.29 万亿，同比再度大幅少增 3000 亿，三季度月均同比多减 3067 亿，降温幅 度较上半年更大，呈现以下结构性特征：1）9 月新增居民贷款 3890 亿， 同比少增 1110 亿，其中，居民短期贷款同比少增 1279 亿，居民中长期贷 款小幅多增 200 亿。一方面，8 月底一线城市相继放开外围区域限购释放 部分存量需求，对相关城市房地产市场和居民新增信贷降温趋势起到了一 定的边际稳定效果；另一方面，居民贷款持续降温仍持续凸显我国房地产 市场当前尚未筑底。2）9 月与广义基建投资关联度较高的企业中长贷新增 9100 亿，同比小幅少增 500 亿，在第二轮关税缓和期即将结束、中美经贸 短期不确定性再度提升的背景下，基建投资稳增长的必要性持续凸显，预 计后续企业中长期贷款总体增长趋势将保持稳定。3）9 月新增企业短期贷 贷款 7100 亿，同比多增 2500 亿 ...

Inflation Data - September CPI year-on-year decline narrowed by 0.1 percentage points to -0.3%, remaining at a low level since the beginning of the year[3] - Core CPI improved by 0.1 percentage points to 1.0%, the highest since March 2024, driven by rising gold prices and effective fiscal subsidies for durable goods[3] - Food CPI fell by 4.4% year-on-year, with fresh vegetable and fruit prices rising by 6.1% and 1.7% respectively, while pork prices continued to decline due to ample supply[4] Producer Price Index (PPI) Insights - September PPI year-on-year decline narrowed significantly by 0.6 percentage points to -2.3%, influenced by low base effects and anti-involution measures[3] - PPI recovery is expected to be gradual due to weak domestic investment demand, with upstream industrial prices stabilizing as anti-involution progresses[5] - International oil price fluctuations led to a 2.0% month-on-month decline in oil and gas extraction, while coal mining increased by 2.5% month-on-month[5] Economic Outlook - The inflation data indicates a synchronized improvement in core CPI and PPI, with fiscal subsidies continuing to boost durable goods consumption[6] - Uncertainties in the fourth quarter and into 2026 are anticipated due to potential export pressures from cooling external demand and ongoing adjustments in the real estate market[6] - The central government may increase consumption subsidies and effective investment budgets if export declines are significant, with a potential for a small interest rate cut of 10 basis points[6]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected relative price increase of over 20% against the market benchmark within the next six months [15]. Core Insights - The company achieved a record high in quarterly revenue, with Q3 2025 revenue reaching 1.428 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 15.86%. The total revenue for the first three quarters of 2025 was 3.860 billion yuan, up 21.05% year-on-year [2][3]. - The net profit for Q3 2025 was 130 million yuan, a decrease of 6.64% year-on-year, while the net profit excluding non-recurring items was 124 million yuan, an increase of 18.86% year-on-year [2][3]. - The company is expanding its global presence, successfully entering the North American market and establishing a North American headquarters to enhance its operational efficiency [3]. Financial Performance - The gross profit margin for Q3 2025 was 29.1%, an increase of 2.2 percentage points year-on-year. The net profit margin was 9.1%, a decrease of 2.2 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to a one-time investment income received in the previous year [3]. - The company forecasts revenue growth of 21.2%, 19.5%, and 18.6% for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with net profits expected to grow by 18.0%, 23.2%, and 22.8% in the same years [4][5]. Financial Data and Valuation - The projected revenue for 2025 is 5.413 billion yuan, with a corresponding net profit of 465 million yuan. The earnings per share (EPS) is expected to be 1.53 yuan, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 35 [5][10]. - The company’s total assets are projected to grow from 4.450 billion yuan in 2024 to 6.365 billion yuan by 2027, indicating a robust growth trajectory [9].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the biopharmaceutical industry [1]. Core Insights - The report is optimistic about the trend of innovative drugs, particularly focusing on the upcoming ESMO conference and national medical insurance negotiations [1][3]. - The innovative drug sector is expected to experience a qualitative change driven by quantitative growth over the next 5-10 years, with business development (BD) overseas, continuous data catalysts, and new product sales driving the rise of innovative drugs [3]. Summary by Sections 1. Innovative Drug Highlights - uniQure's gene therapy AMT-130 for Huntington's disease showed significant results in a key I/II clinical trial, with a 75% reduction in disease progression at high doses [3][5]. - Novartis acquired Akero Therapeutics for $5.2 billion, focusing on FGF21-targeted therapies for MASH, with the core asset being efruxifermin, currently in Phase III trials [22][23]. - The report emphasizes the importance of clinical data from the upcoming ESMO conference and the third-quarter earnings reports, as well as the November national medical insurance negotiations [3]. 2. Industry Catalysts and Strategies - The report suggests focusing on companies with strong clinical data, commercialization capabilities, and potential for successful international expansion, recommending specific companies in both the Biopharma and Pharma sectors [3]. - Suggested companies include: - Pharma: CSPC Pharmaceutical Group, China Biologic Products, and Hengrui Medicine [3]. - Biopharma: Innovent Biologics, Kelun-Biotech, and Zai Lab [3]. 3. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends a dual focus on Biotech and generic-to-innovative companies with potential catalysts, highlighting specific companies in each category [3]. - Suggested Biotech companies include: EdiGene, CanSino Biologics, and I-Mab Biopharma [3]. - Suggested generic-to-innovative companies include: Jingxin Pharmaceutical, Enhua Pharmaceutical, and Changchun High-tech [3].

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Outperform the Market" [6] Core Insights - The report highlights that the construction materials sector is expected to benefit from supply-side reforms and a potential recovery in housing demand due to declining interest rates and supportive government policies aimed at stabilizing the real estate market [2][4][10] - The report notes that the cumulative completion of energy-saving renovations for existing buildings during the 14th Five-Year Plan period is projected to reach 800 million square meters, indicating a strong focus on quality construction standards [2][10] - The report emphasizes that the market is becoming increasingly sensitive to policy easing, with the real estate sector entering a bottoming phase after three consecutive years of decline in sales area [2][10] Summary by Sections Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on three main investment lines: 1. High-quality companies benefiting from stock renovations, such as Weixing New Materials, Beixin Building Materials, and Tubao [4] 2. Undervalued stocks with long-term alpha attributes, such as Sankeshu, Dongfang Yuhong, and Jianlang Hardware [4] 3. Leading cyclical building material companies showing signs of bottoming, including Huaxin Cement, Conch Cement, China Jushi, and Qibin Group [4] Recent High-Frequency Data - As of October 10, 2025, the national average price of bulk P.O 42.5 cement is 346.8 CNY/ton, showing a month-on-month increase of 1.2% but a year-on-year decrease of 11.7% [11] - The national average price of glass (5.00mm) is 1265.7 CNY/ton, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 8.7% and a year-on-year increase of 2.1% [19][21] Sector Performance - The construction materials index increased by 2.66%, with sub-sectors such as cement manufacturing (+5.36%) and other building materials (+3.05%) showing strong performance [51]

- The report introduces a **PCR timing strategy** based on the **Put/Call Ratio (PCR)**, which is a market sentiment indicator. The strategy logic includes trend-following (PCR rising indicates positive sentiment) and counter-trend (low PCR suggests a sentiment bottom with potential reversal) [5][66][73] - The **PCR timing strategy** is applied to **Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 (SSE 50)** and **CSI 300** indices. The strategy's performance is tracked, showing a year-to-date return of 0.09% for CSI 300, with the latest signal being "no position" (signal 0) [5][73][83] - The **PCR timing strategy** performance metrics for CSI 300 include annualized volatility (15.31%), maximum drawdown (9.44%), Sharpe ratio (0.25), and Calmar ratio (0.43) for 2025. The overall performance from 2020 to 2025 shows an annualized return of 19.96%, maximum drawdown of 23.42%, and Sharpe ratio of 1 [79] - For SSE 50, the **PCR timing strategy** metrics for 2025 include annualized volatility (13.46%), maximum drawdown (12.59%), Sharpe ratio (-0.24), and Calmar ratio (-0.2). The overall performance from 2017 to 2025 shows an annualized return of 14.06%, maximum drawdown of 24.96%, and Sharpe ratio of 0.75 [80]

Export Performance - In September, China's exports rebounded significantly, with a year-on-year increase of 8.3%, up 3.9 percentage points from August, attributed mainly to a low base effect[2] - Exports to the US, EU, and UK improved by 6.1, 3.8, and 2.0 percentage points respectively, although exports to ASEAN dropped by 6.9 percentage points to 15.6%[3] - The contribution of capital goods exports to overall export improvement rose by 2.1 percentage points, driven by the US's accelerated reconstruction of domestic capacity[4] Import Trends - Imports in September saw a year-on-year increase of 7.4%, marking the highest monthly growth rate of the year, with a significant rise in capital goods imports by 13.8%[4] - The trade surplus narrowed slightly to $90.45 billion due to the simultaneous increase in imports[2] Trade Relations and Risks - The ongoing uncertainty in US-China trade relations, including threats of additional tariffs and export controls, remains a critical variable affecting future export performance[2] - The imposition of a 40% tariff on transshipment goods by the US has already impacted exports to ASEAN, indicating potential future challenges[5] - The report highlights the need for close monitoring of US-China negotiations, especially with a key date of November 1 approaching, which may accelerate discussions[5]

Export Performance - In September, China's exports rebounded significantly, with a year-on-year increase of 8.3%, up 3.9 percentage points from August, attributed mainly to a low base effect[2] - Exports to the US, EU, and UK improved by 6.1, 3.8, and 2.0 percentage points respectively, although exports to ASEAN dropped by 6.9 percentage points to 15.6%[3] - Key export categories showed strong performance, particularly in capital goods, which contributed 2.1 percentage points to the overall export improvement[4] Import Trends - Imports in September saw a year-on-year increase of 7.4%, marking the highest monthly growth rate of the year, driven by a significant narrowing of declines in commodities like crude oil and soybeans[5] - Capital goods imports surged by 13.8% year-on-year, contributing to the overall import growth[5] Trade Balance - The trade surplus slightly narrowed to $90.45 billion in September due to the simultaneous increase in both exports and imports[2] Economic Outlook - The ongoing uncertainties in US-China trade relations, including potential new tariffs and export controls, remain critical factors influencing future export performance[6] - Despite the challenges, there is a possibility of reaching a mutually acceptable long-term agreement between the US and China, as both sides appear to be preparing for more serious negotiations[6] Risk Factors - Increased global trade policy uncertainties could lead to lower-than-expected export growth, posing risks to the overall economic outlook[7]

Group 1 - The report highlights that U.S. stocks experienced significant declines on "Black Friday" due to comments from Trump regarding tariffs on China, which may lead to a cycle of "threat-negotiation-exemption" [1][7] - The Federal Reserve officials expressed concerns about the labor market, with expectations of potential interest rate cuts increasing, particularly a 25 basis point cut in October [1][8] - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring U.S.-China tariff negotiations and the impact of government shutdowns on data releases, while suggesting a favorable outlook for gold as a safe-haven asset [1][7] Group 2 - The report indicates mixed performance in global equity markets, with the Nikkei 225 showing the highest increase of 5.07%, while the Hang Seng Index and Dow Jones Industrial Average saw declines of 3.13% and 2.73%, respectively [2][29] - In the commodities market, COMEX silver and gold saw increases of 2.75% and 2.68%, respectively, while NYMEX light crude oil experienced a significant drop of 4.04% [24][43] - The report notes that the U.S. labor market remains a concern, with initial jobless claims data not being released due to the government shutdown, highlighting the uncertainty in economic indicators [8][29]