Investment Rating - The report gives a "Buy" rating for the company, marking its first coverage [4][6]. Core Insights - Longxin General has established itself as a leader in the motorcycle industry in China, with a successful transition from "product export" to "brand export" through its high-end motorcycle brand "VOGE" [2][14]. - The company is expected to become the largest motorcycle enterprise in China and rank among the top globally following the integration of its operations with Zongshen Group [2][14]. - The brand "Wuji" has positioned itself as a leader in the high-end motorcycle segment, achieving a market share of 14.2% for motorcycles above 250cc in 2024, a 5 percentage point increase from 2022 [3][4]. Financial Performance - The company reported a revenue of 16.82 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 29%, with a net profit of 1.12 billion yuan, up 92% [16][29]. - The forecast for net profit from 2025 to 2027 is 1.90 billion yuan, 2.37 billion yuan, and 2.77 billion yuan, representing growth rates of 70%, 25%, and 17% respectively [4][16]. - The company's earnings per share (EPS) is projected to increase from 0.93 yuan in 2025 to 1.35 yuan in 2027 [4][16]. Brand Competitiveness - Wuji has successfully launched several popular models, including SR150GT and DS900X, and has gained significant recognition in the European market, with over 95% of its 800cc motorcycle exports going to Europe in 2024 [3][4]. - The partnership with BMW since 2005 has enhanced the company's quality control capabilities, facilitating its entry into the European market [3][4]. - The company has focused on brand rejuvenation and increased marketing efforts, with advertising expenses projected to reach 80 million yuan in 2024, a 96% increase year-on-year [3][4]. Market Trends - The motorcycle export market has shown significant growth, with a projected export value of 8.716 billion USD in 2024, a 24.75% increase from the previous year [54][60]. - The company has been expanding its presence in emerging markets, particularly in Latin America and Africa, where demand for motorcycles is increasing [106][108]. - The European motorcycle market is stable and growing, with a market size of approximately 16.3 billion USD in 2023, driven by high demand for large displacement motorcycles [87][92].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected relative price increase of over 20% against the market benchmark within the next six months [18]. Core Insights - The company is projected to achieve a net profit of approximately 9.6 billion to 9.9 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 58% to 63% [2]. - The revenue for the first half of 2025 is expected to grow by about 25% year-on-year, with a significant acceleration in growth anticipated for Q2, where revenue is expected to increase nearly 40% compared to Q1 [3]. - The company is focusing on enhancing operational efficiency and product innovation, which is expected to drive profitability improvements [4]. Financial Performance Summary - For 2025, the company forecasts total revenue of 196.97 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 19.1%, 16.1%, and 14.0% for 2026 and 2027 respectively [4][6]. - The projected net profit for 2025 is 19.20 billion yuan, with a substantial year-on-year growth of 138.2% [4][6]. - The earnings per share (EPS) is expected to rise to 3.34 yuan in 2025, with a corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 19x [6].

证券研究报告|行业专题 医疗美容 行业评级 强于大市（首次评级） 2025年07月15日 投资要点 2 华福证券 华福证券 证券分析师： 张望 执业证书编号：S0210525020002 请务必阅读报告末页的重要声明 华福证券 华福证券 供应链求索&青春诊所布局 ——新氧究竟发生了什么变化？ ➢ 新氧：全球首家医美电商，致力于消除医美信息差。新氧致力于以平台广告-机构筛选-用户社群分享模 式解决医美决策痛点，为全球首创的医美电商。至2021年APP月活用户达850万人，付费机构6634家 。新氧获兰馨亚洲、经纬中国、挚信资本等头部创投机构长期青睐，至2025年2月末创始人及前三大股 东合计持股比达58.9%。 ➢ 压力与逆境：需求走弱与互联网电商分流，基本面或进入触底反转。2022年线下消费疲软与医美机构 停业致公司业绩承压，新氧平台促成医美服务GMV下滑55.4%至14.3亿元。后续美团、大众点评等互 联网平台切入医美赛道加剧行业竞争，获客难度与流量成本面临上升。至2024年公司收入降至14.7亿 元，净利润亏损5.9亿元。25Q1收入同降6.6%至3.0亿元，净利润亏损0.33亿元。期末总现金达10.2亿 ...

行 业 汽车 2025 年 07 月 14 日 研 究 汽车 极氪 9X 技术发布 理想 i8 将于 7 月 29 日上市 投资要点： 本周专题：极氪 9X 技术发布 理想 i8 将于 7 月 29 日上市 7 月 9 日，极氪发布豪华电混专属架构浩瀚-S，基于纯电架构打造， 该架构拥有浩瀚超级电混、浩瀚 AI 数字底、浩瀚安全盔甲和千里浩瀚 智能辅助驾驶方案，首款出自该架构的车型即为全新的极氪 9X。 行 业 定 期 报 告 极氪 9X 作为全尺寸旗舰 SUV，采用三排六座的座椅布局，二排 拥有双零重力座椅，长宽高分别为 5239/2029/1819mm，轴距为 3169mm。智驾方面，极氪 9X 将会首发搭载千里浩瀚 H9 解决方案， 它由 5 颗激光雷达组成，并搭载了双 Thor 智驾芯片，算力可达 1400TOPS。动力方面，极氪 9X 搭载极氪超级电混技术，采用 900V 高压平台，2.0T超混发动机具备205千瓦的最大功率，热效率达到46%， CLTC 工况下的纯电续航为 380 公里，百公里加速达到 3 秒级。 理想汽车旗下首款纯电动六座 SUV——理想 i8 将于 7 月 17 日开 启预订， ...

Loan and Credit Growth - In June, new loans reached 2.24 trillion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 110 billion RMB, consistent with seasonal high growth patterns[3] - The total new loans for Q2 2025 amounted to 3.14 trillion RMB, with a monthly average year-on-year decrease of 223.3 billion RMB[3] - New corporate medium- and long-term loans surged by 1.01 trillion RMB in June, marking a year-on-year increase of 400 billion RMB, indicating the importance of infrastructure investment for growth stabilization[3] Social Financing and Government Debt - New social financing in June hit 4.2 trillion RMB, a significant year-on-year increase of 900.8 billion RMB[4] - The issuance of new government bonds in June reached 1.35 trillion RMB, up by 507.2 billion RMB year-on-year, contributing to the overall social financing growth[4] - The total new government debt for the first half of the year was 7.66 trillion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 4.32 trillion RMB[4] Monetary Supply and Market Trends - M2 growth rebounded to 8.3% year-on-year in June, a 0.4 percentage point increase, reaching a 16-month high[5] - In June, household and corporate deposits increased by 330 billion RMB and 777.3 billion RMB year-on-year, respectively, while non-bank financial institution deposits decreased by 340 billion RMB[5] - The M1 growth rate jumped to 4.6% year-on-year, a significant increase of 2.3 percentage points, marking the highest level since June 2023[5] Economic Outlook and Risks - The report highlights a structural divergence between credit and social financing, with the need for further observation on whether the trend will improve[5] - Potential upward pressure on the RMB due to a stabilizing US dollar index may impose new constraints on monetary easing policies[5] - The effectiveness of monetary easing policies may be weaker than expected, posing a risk to economic recovery[6]

策 略 研 究 华福证券 沪指站上 3500 点 投资要点： 本周（7/7-7/11）沪指向上突破 3500 点，全 A 收涨 1.71%。从指数情 况看，微盘股、中证 1000、创业板指领涨，沪深 300、中证红利、上证 50 涨幅靠后。从风格情况看，科技、医药医疗领涨，周期、消费涨幅靠后。 本周 31 个申万行业涨多跌少，房地产、钢铁、非银金融领涨，汽车、银行、 煤炭领跌。 策 略 定 期 报 告 市场观察：股债收益差下降，行业轮动强度上升。（1）市场估值：股 债收益差下降至 1.2%，小于+1 标准差。估值分化系数有所上升。（2）市 场情绪：市场情绪回升，行业轮动强度上升。市场小盘风格占优，微盘股 指数跑赢市场，主题热度主要聚集在稀土、炒股软件、稀土永磁。（3）市 场结构：市场量能环比上升，房地产、建筑材料、非银金融多头个股占比 居前，有色金属、公用事业、煤炭内部或存在α机会。（4）市场资金：本 周陆股通周内日平均成交金额较上周上升 411 亿元，本周陆股通周内日平 均成交笔数较上周上升 144 万笔。本周陆股通成交额排名前三的标的为贵 州茅台、工商银行、宁德时代，近 5 日涨幅分别为 0.3%、3.4 ...

Long-term Logic - The global restructuring and economic transformation in China are highlighted as key drivers for investment strategies, with a shift from a US-dominated global division of labor to a more balanced approach favoring China [2][11]. - China's economy is transitioning from high-speed growth to high-quality development, with a notable decline in real estate and infrastructure investment, leading to improved cash flow and asset quality [12][16]. Mid-term Logic - The current economic cycle is at a low point, with weak demand and low inflation suppressing corporate investment, prompting companies to reduce capital expenditures [17][21]. - As companies focus on asset quality and cash flow, the market is expected to shift its valuation anchor from earnings to net assets, making price-to-book (PB) ratios more relevant [17][21]. Short-term Catalysts - External factors, such as the US's reverse globalization policies, are creating favorable conditions for Chinese assets, with a passive appreciation of the RMB and increased capital inflow [22][28]. - Domestic policies emphasizing "de-involution" are leading to expectations of capacity reduction in traditional industries, further supporting asset revaluation [28]. Industry Selection - The report identifies Hong Kong's financial, real estate, construction, and energy sectors as having better value propositions, with many industries exhibiting low PB ratios [6][37]. - Specific stocks with PB ratios below 2 and market capitalizations above 500 billion yuan are highlighted, indicating potential investment opportunities in these sectors [40][41].

Export Performance - June exports increased by 5.8% year-on-year, up 1.0 percentage points from May, but down 3.7 percentage points compared to Q4 2024[3] - Exports to the US saw a significant narrowing of the decline to -16.1%, an improvement of 18.4 percentage points since mid-May[4] - Exports to ASEAN and Hong Kong rose by 2.0 and 5.3 percentage points to 16.8% and 16.7% respectively[4] Import Trends - June imports grew by 1.1% year-on-year, a substantial improvement of 4.5 percentage points from May, marking a return to positive growth after three months[5] - The decline in crude oil imports narrowed to -14.3%, a reduction of 7.9 percentage points, influenced by rising oil prices due to geopolitical tensions[5] - Capital goods, chemicals, and intermediate goods for domestic demand showed improvement in imports, while processing trade and consumer goods imports declined[5] Economic Outlook - The second quarter's export performance is expected to positively impact economic growth, driven by the temporary easing of US-China tariffs and resilient export supply chains[6] - However, potential risks include increased uncertainty in global trade policies and a possible decline in exports to the US and ASEAN after July[6] - The central bank may consider monetary easing to stabilize the real estate market and support domestic demand if exports decline significantly post-August[6]

行 基础化工 2025 年 07 月 14 日 业 研 究 基础化工 新材料周报：长鑫科技启动 IPO 辅导，国内首创 打破可乐丽垄断 投资要点： 行 业 定 期 报 告 本周行情回顾。本周（2025.07.07-2025.07.11），Wind 新材料指数收报 3954.95 点，环比上涨 2.88%。其中，涨幅前五的有宏柏新材(24.72%)、晨光新 材(23.3%)、东岳硅材(17.89%)、硅宝科技(16.97%)、普利特(11.43%)；跌幅前 五的有瑞联新材(-15.98%)、久日新材(-7.36%)、赛伍技术(-5.58%)、安集科技 (-4.96%)、润阳科技(-3.94%)。六个子行业中，申万三级行业半导体材料指数收 报 6176.23 点，环比上涨 1.77%；申万三级行业显示器件材料指数收报 1088.59 点，环比上涨 1.52%；中信三级行业有机硅材料指数收报 6489.22 点，环比上 涨 8.82%；中信三级行业碳纤维指数收报 1221.84 点，环比上涨 3.82%；中信 三级行业锂电指数收报 1867.72 点，环比上涨 0.43%；Wind 概念可降解塑料指 数收报 191 ...

行 国防军工 2025 年 07 月 14 日 业 研 究 国防军工 军工本周观点：继续看多军工 投资要点： 本周核心观点： 行 业 定 期 报 告 本周（7.7-7.11）申万军工指数（801740）上涨 0.88% ，同期沪深 300 指 数上涨 0.82%，相对超额 0.06pct。本周细分领域催化较多，带动多主题跑 出明显超额，如：聚变新能本周发布大额招投标公告，且涉及到失超保护 开关等核心设备，带动核聚变相关板块标的表现较好；中国船舶吸收合并 中国重工获审核通过，带动船舶板块相关标的跑出超额；军工细分领域催 化频出，传统板块及细分主题机会不断。 资金层面，本周被动基金规模持续上升，且被动资金延续大幅净流入，尽 管杠杆类资金有所下滑，但考虑到军工行业 2025 年的强需求恢复预期及确 定性，看好后续资金面进一步优化。 估值层面，截至 7 月 11 日，申万军工指数五年维度看，当前市盈率 TTM（剔 除负值）70.34 倍，分位数 96.86%，叠加 2025 年行业基本面强恢复预期， 当下时点军工板块具备较高配置价值比。 团队成员 综上，25-27 年在【十四五任务冲刺】＋【建军百年目标】+【自主可控 ...