华福证券 宏 观 研 究 财政支出降幅收窄 ——2025 年 12 月财政数据解读 投资要点： 宏 观 点 评 全年收支未达目标。回顾 2025 年全年的财政收支，首先，税收收入明 显改善，尤其是增值税、个人所得税和企业所得税，是公共财政收入端的 重心；其次，财政支出侧重民生领域，基建类支出占比趋降；再次，支出 节奏前置，年末进度落后，全年预算短支；最后，土地财政持续低迷且波 动较大，对广义财政收入构成拖累。2025 年广义财政收入、支出增速分别 为-2.9%、3.7%，单独看 12 月当月的表现，2025 年 12 月广义财政收入较 上月回落 13.3 个百分点至-18.5%，广义支出增速较上月回升 1 个百分点至 -0.7%。收入端来看，12 月税收走弱受到高基数效应和经济放缓的影响，土 地出让收入对广义财政持续构成制约；支出端方面，融资前置导致年底后 劲略显不足，仅基建相关支出有明显改善。 财政依旧前置发力。展望 2026 年，一般公共预算赤字率或保持稳定， 同时，全国财政工作会议指出要"扩大财政支出盘子，确保必要支出力度"， 随着物价有望企稳回升，财政收入对于支出端的制约减弱，财政"增支" 的效果或更 ...

Investment Rating - The coal industry is rated as "stronger than the market" [7] Core Views - The report emphasizes that the fundamental goal is to reverse the Producer Price Index (PPI), with seasonal demand during the "peak winter" leading to a 1.3% increase in coal mining and washing prices, contributing to a 0.2% rise in PPI over three consecutive months [5][6] - The coal price is expected to stabilize due to its high correlation with PPI, with a potential low point for coal prices in 2025, influenced by policies aimed at reducing excessive competition [5] - The coal industry is undergoing a transformation driven by energy security demands, with limited supply elasticity due to strict capacity controls and increasing extraction difficulties, particularly in eastern regions [5][6] - Despite weak macroeconomic conditions affecting coal demand, the rigid supply and rising costs are expected to support coal prices, which are likely to maintain a volatile upward trend [5] Summary by Sections Coal Market Overview - As of January 30, the Qinhuangdao 5500K thermal coal price is 692 CNY/ton, up 7 CNY/ton week-on-week, with a year-on-year decline of 61 CNY/ton [3][31] - The average daily output of 462 sample coal mines is 5.329 million tons, down 81,000 tons week-on-week but up 1.77 million tons year-on-year [3][42] - The coal inventory index is slightly down to 180.4, indicating a minor decrease in coal stocks [3][53] Coking Coal - The main coking coal price at Jingtang Port is stable at 1800 CNY/ton, with a year-on-year increase of 340 CNY/ton [4][72] - The average daily output of 523 sample coking coal mines is 771,000 tons, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 64.2% [4][71] - The coking coal inventory stands at 2.672 million tons, down 7.2% week-on-week [4][71] Supply and Demand Dynamics - The daily consumption of the six major power plants has decreased to 847,000 tons, down 3.7% week-on-week but up 27.8% year-on-year [42][43] - The inventory of the six major power plants is 13.185 million tons, down 0.6% week-on-week [43][44] - The methanol and urea operating rates are at 91.2% and 88.3%, respectively, indicating a slight increase [47][48] Investment Opportunities - The report suggests focusing on companies with strong resource endowments and stable operating performance, such as China Shenhua, China Coal Energy, and Shaanxi Coal and Chemical [6] - Companies with production growth potential benefiting from the coal price cycle, such as Yanzhou Coal Mining, Huayang Co., and Gansu Energy, are also highlighted [6] - Firms with global resource scarcity attributes, like Huaibei Mining and Shanxi Coking Coal, are recommended for investment [6]

固 定 收 益 2026 年 01 月 29 日 25 年 11-12 月城投债延续净融资 首次发债主体 数量继续放量——25 年 11-12 月城投债发行审批跟踪 25 年 11-12 月城投债延续净融资 首次发债主体数量明显增加 固 定 收 益 定 期 报 告 11、12 月城投债净融资规模分别为 307 亿元和 150 亿元，合计 457 亿元。其中，11 月交易所城投债由 10 月的净融资转为净偿还 82 亿元， 12 月再度转为净融资 73 亿元；11 月协会产品转为净融资 389 亿元， 12 月回落至 77 亿元。12 月广东、山东、北京、四川等 14 个省市城投 债净融资为正，江苏、浙江、陕西等 14 个省市 12 月城投债净偿还。 2025 年全年共 18 个省市城投债净融资规模为正，其中广东和山东的 净融资规模较大，其余 13 个城投债净偿还的省市中江苏、湖南、重庆 等地净偿还规模较大。相比于 2024 年，近一年内天津的城投债净偿还 规模大幅减少，广东的净融资规模大幅上升，浙江和甘肃由大规模净 偿还转为净融资，而福建、四川的净融资规模大幅减少，重庆、湖南 的净偿还规模大幅上升，江西、上海 ...

宏 观 研 究 降息暂缓，前紧后松 ——2026 年 1 月美联储议息会议解读 投资要点： 如期按兵不动。本次议息会议中，美联储暂停降息，将利率稳定在 3.5%-3.75%的目标范围内，符合预期。其中，有两位美联储理事投了反对 票，米兰（Stephen I. Miran）和沃勒（Christopher J. Waller）认为应该降息 25bp， 其他 10 位理事均支持停止降息，内部分歧不大。 宏 观 点 评 就业企稳，通胀偏高。本次声明中，就业方面，委员会删除了此前认 为就业面临的下行风险增加的表述；且认为失业率已出现一些企稳迹象。 通胀方面，委员会维持"通胀仍然偏高"的表述。鲍威尔在新闻发布会中 表示，劳动力市场供需同步降温，通胀超调的大部分来自关税，而非需求； 剔除商品关税影响后的核心 PCE 略高于 2%。我们认为， 12 月新增就业继 续减少，11 月职位空缺数、空缺率均创新低，指向劳动力供给过剩状况加 剧；高利率下住房通胀大趋势仍继续放缓，通胀有继续走低的驱动。 经济增长前景乐观。在经济增长方面，委员会上调对经济形势的判断， 修改为"经济活动以温和速度扩张"（expanding at a mod ...

宏 观 研 究 2026 年 01 月 28 日 投资要点： 一、美联储降息"前紧后松" 我们认为，美国货币政策将呈现出"前紧后松"的特征。如果鲍威 尔在任期内仍然维持略显鹰派的政策态度，那么，下半年，我们预计 会迎来美联储的报复式降息 二、美元还会明显走弱 宏 观 专 在当前美元指数已经降破 97 的时候，美元在 26 年还会进一步的 走弱么？我们的答案依然是肯定的。基于对美联储货币政策"前紧后 松"的判断，我们预计，宽松的货币政策环境，叠加全球各国对于安全 需求的上升，美元或将继续走弱。 三、人民币汇率步入升值通道 题 我们认为，人民币汇率已经步入中期的升值通道。近来我们看到 人民币汇率正在向出口增速中枢复归，6.8 左右是较为匹配当前出口态 势的水平，如果考虑到人民币汇率在升贬值过程中往往容易出现超调， 那么，人民币汇率有进一步向上升破 6.8 的可能。 四、外需与内需会再平衡 人民币汇率在某种意义上，是横亘在内需和外需之间的"分配线"。 我们认为，人民币汇率步入中期升值通道的过程，其实也就是我国在 政策层面对外需和内需的再平衡。部分产品出口退税的削减乃至消除， 也能够证明内需在政策考量中的相对重要性逐 ...

- The report does not contain any specific quantitative models or factors for analysis[1][2][3]

行 有色金属 2026 年 01 月 27 日 业 研 究 有色金属 锂产业链月度追踪（202512）：12 月锂供需短缺， 基本面推动锂价快速上涨 投资要点： 行 业 定 期 报 告 锂矿：2025年12月锂辉石进口量约76.6万吨，环比+5%，同比+19%。 根据海关总署数据显示，2025年12月从澳大利亚进口量31万吨，同比-5%， 环比-27%，占比40%；12月从津巴布韦进口量13.2万吨，同比+39%，环 比+20%，占比17%；12月从尼日利亚进口量8万吨，同比+59%，环比-13%， 占比10%；12月从南非进口量10.9万吨，同比+13%，环比增加约10.9万吨。 2025年锂辉石总进口量约772.67万吨，同比+10%。 碳酸锂：2025年12月碳酸锂进口量2.40万吨，环比+8.77%，同比 -14.43%；2025年碳酸锂总进口量24.30万吨，同比+3.41%，增速较2024 年下滑约44.6pct。2025年12月，碳酸锂出口量911.9吨，环比+20.11%， 同比+45.97%；2025年碳酸锂总出口量5289.6吨，同比+38.17%。 氢氧化锂：2025年12月氢氧化锂进口 ...

Group 1: Profit and Revenue Trends - In December, the revenue of industrial enterprises above designated size decreased by 3.2% year-on-year, with the decline expanding by 3.0 percentage points compared to the previous month[3] - Industrial enterprise profits increased by 5.3% year-on-year in December, reversing from a -13.1% decline in the previous month, marking the first year-end profit increase since 2018[3] - The profit margin growth in December was a significant support for profit improvement, while the price drag slightly narrowed, contributing to the overall profit recovery[3] Group 2: Currency and Economic Factors - The appreciation of the RMB since late November has led to a repatriation of overseas profits, with the bank's foreign exchange settlement and sales difference reaching 25.9% of the trade surplus for the year, the second-highest since 2015[4] - Weak domestic demand continues to constrain revenue and profit improvements for enterprises, although the RMB appreciation may temporarily support profit growth by encouraging the repatriation of overseas profits[3][4] - In the long term, the RMB appreciation could help curb excessive reliance on price competition among export enterprises, promoting a shift towards quality development driven by technology upgrades and brand building[3] Group 3: Industry Performance - The equipment manufacturing and high-tech manufacturing sectors showed strong profit growth, significantly outpacing the overall profit growth of industrial enterprises[4][5] - For the year 2025, the profit of the equipment manufacturing sector increased by 7.7%, contributing 2.8 percentage points to the overall profit growth of industrial enterprises[5] - High-tech manufacturing profits grew by 13.3% year-on-year, exceeding the average growth rate of all industrial enterprises by 12.7 percentage points, with notable performance in smart consumer devices, semiconductors, and medical-related manufacturing[5]

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Outperform the Market" [4] Core Views - The report highlights a continued decline in average prices for live pigs, with December showing an increase in the number of pigs slaughtered but a decrease in average selling prices. The average price for live pigs in December was 11.5 yuan/kg, down 1.82% month-on-month and down 27.15% year-on-year [2][12] - The report anticipates that the ongoing capacity reduction policies will lead to a long-term increase in the price center for live pigs, benefiting low-cost and high-quality pig farming companies [36] - The beef market is expected to see a long-term upward trend in prices due to a decrease in the number of breeding cows and the implementation of import restrictions on beef, which will tighten market supply [38] - In the poultry sector, the end of the vaccination period has led to a significant increase in the supply of chicken, resulting in a drop in chick prices. However, the egg market is experiencing a price increase due to pre-holiday stocking [46][51] Summary by Sections 1. Swine Industry - December saw a total of 17 listed pig companies slaughter 17.9872 million pigs, an increase of 6.8% month-on-month and 8.87% year-on-year [11] - The average selling price for pigs in December was 11.5 yuan/kg, reflecting a downward trend due to oversupply [12] - The report notes a slight recovery in the average weight of pigs slaughtered, which was 128.89 kg as of January 22 [25] 2. Cattle Industry - The price of calves has continued to rise, with the price for fattening bulls at 25.66 yuan/kg and calves at 33.09 yuan/kg as of January 23 [38] - The report indicates that the supply of beef is expected to tighten, leading to a favorable long-term price outlook [38] 3. Poultry Industry - The end of the vaccination period has resulted in a drop in chick prices to 2.2 yuan/chick, while chicken prices remain stable at 7.5 yuan/kg [46] - The egg market is seeing an increase in prices, with the average price for eggs at 7.93 yuan/kg, up 0.64% week-on-week [46] 4. Seed Industry - The report discusses the strengthening of intellectual property protection in the seed industry, which is expected to enhance market order and accelerate the commercialization of genetically modified organisms [59]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the pharmaceutical industry [1] Core Insights - The overall and weighted holdings of public funds in the pharmaceutical sector reached a new low since 2018 in Q4 2025, with the pharmaceutical heavy holdings accounting for 8.0% of all public funds, down 1.7 percentage points quarter-on-quarter [2][9] - The total scale of pharmaceutical funds in Q4 2025 was 394.6 billion yuan, a decrease of 9.2% from the previous quarter, with active pharmaceutical funds at 177.7 billion yuan, down 14% [20] - The proportion of passive pharmaceutical funds has increased significantly from 18% in Q1 2018 to 55% in Q4 2025, indicating a shift towards passive investment strategies in the sector [20] Fund Holdings Analysis - In Q4 2025, the pharmaceutical sector saw a decrease in active fund holdings, with active pharmaceutical funds accounting for 33% of the total pharmaceutical heavy holdings, up 2 percentage points, while non-pharmaceutical active funds accounted for 26%, down 5.1 percentage points [3][13] - The top five holdings by market value in public funds included Heng Rui Medicine (31.7 billion), WuXi AppTec (29.6 billion), and Innovent Biologics (16.6 billion) [6] - The top three increases in active fund holdings were for Tigermed (1.7 billion), Yimeng Biologics (1.4 billion), and CSPC Pharmaceutical Group (1.3 billion) [6] Sector-Specific Trends - The report highlights a shift in fund holdings towards innovative drugs and CXO services, while traditional Chinese medicine and high-value consumables are underweighted [6] - The report notes that the proportion of holdings in traditional Chinese medicine and biotech has increased, while holdings in BioPharma and CXO have decreased significantly [6][28] - The overall market value of holdings in the Bio-Tech sector reached 7.25% in Q4 2025, marking the highest level since Q1 2018, with active pharmaceutical funds holding 4.9% [28]