Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Outperform the Market," indicating that the overall return of the industry is expected to exceed the market benchmark index by more than 5% over the next 6 months [14]. Core Insights - The competition among AI models, particularly between Gemini, OpenAI, and Claude, is expected to enhance user experience and drive advancements in model capabilities [3][7]. - The competition in computing power between Nvidia and Google TPU is intensifying, with Google leveraging its TPU architecture to improve total cost of ownership (TCO) [5][7]. - The semiconductor manufacturing landscape is evolving, with TSMC and Samsung competing in AI chip production, which may accelerate capacity expansion in the AI chip foundry sector [6][7]. Summary by Sections Model Section - Recent releases from Google, including Gemini 3 Pro and others, have heightened market interest and impacted competitors like OpenAI and Claude, leading to a competitive environment that fosters model capability improvements [3]. Computing Power Section - Google is advancing its TPU technology, particularly with the TorchTPU initiative aimed at optimizing the performance of the PyTorch framework on its TPU chips, which could enhance its competitive stance against Nvidia [5]. Capacity Section - AI chip startup Groq has entered a non-exclusive licensing agreement with Nvidia for inference technology, utilizing Samsung's manufacturing capabilities, which may intensify competition in the AI chip foundry market and prompt TSMC to accelerate its production efforts [6].

证券研究报告|行业深度报告 有色金属 行业评级 强于大市（维持评级） 2025年12月31日 储能成为锂第二成长曲线加速修复供需平衡表，锂 价底部已至反弹可期 ——锂行业深度报告 证券分析师： 王保庆 执业证书编号：S0210522090001 请务必阅读报告末页的重要声明 华福证券 华福证券 投资要点 Ø 风险提示：下游需求不及预期、供给端释放超预期、地缘政治冲突加剧等。 2 华福证券 华福证券 Ø 供需角度：2024年：供给136.2万吨，需求122.1万吨，过剩14.1万吨；2025年预计供给165.8万吨，需求161.8万吨，过 剩3.9万吨；2026年储能中性：预计供给200.4万吨，需求197.2万吨，过剩约3.2万吨，呈紧平衡态势；储能乐观：预计供 给200.4万吨，需求208.6万吨，短缺8.2万吨。 Ø 淡季不淡，碳酸锂持续去库。10/11月需求表现强势，我国动力和其他电池合计产量分别为170.6GWh/176.3GWh，环比 分别增长12.9%/3.3%，同比分别增长50.5%/49.2%。虽然碳酸锂供应端在利润修复带动下产量回升，但需求端表现更为 强劲，因此碳酸锂延续去库态势。据SMM数 ...

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Strongly Outperform the Market" indicating that the overall return of the industry is expected to exceed the market benchmark index by more than 5% in the next 6 months [12]. Core Insights - The report highlights that the commercialization potential of Keling AI has further improved due to multiple product iterations during the "All-in-One Inspiration Week" [2][4]. - Keling AI launched several models, including the "Video O1 Model" and "Image O1 Model," which enhance the stability and quality of video and image generation, catering to professional creative needs [3]. - The pricing strategy for Keling 2.6 model has been adjusted, with a charge of 50 inspiration points for high-quality video generation, indicating an increase in commercial viability [4]. Summary by Sections Industry Dynamics - Keling AI's "All-in-One Inspiration Week" introduced various models that enhance user experience and creative capabilities, including the ability to generate complete audio-visual content in a single session [3]. - The iterative improvements in Keling AI's offerings are expected to drive further commercialization opportunities [4]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on Kuaishou and other "text-to-video" applications as potential investment opportunities within the industry [5].

Group 1 - The bond market in December remained in a volatile state, influenced by institutional behavior and concerns over potential risks in Q1, including government bond issuance and credit expansion impacts on bank credit [2][17] - The supply-demand imbalance for ultra-long bonds is a significant concern, with the issuance of super-long government bonds increasing substantially in recent years, particularly in 2025 [3][21] - The central economic work conference indicated that the fiscal deficit rate may remain at 4% in 2026, with only a slight expansion in government bond supply compared to 2025, despite concerns about the capacity of institutions to absorb large-scale local bond issuances [4][22] Group 2 - A total of 20 regions have announced their Q1 issuance plans, amounting to 1.688 trillion yuan, which is higher than the actual issuance in Q1 2025, indicating a more optimistic outlook for 2026 [4][23] - The anticipated net financing for government bonds in January, February, and March 2026 is estimated at 1.29 trillion, 0.86 trillion, and 1.25 trillion yuan respectively, totaling approximately 3.4 trillion yuan for the quarter, which is lower than the 4.1 trillion yuan in the same period of 2025 [35][32] - The central bank's monetary policy has shifted towards maintaining liquidity support, with a significant probability of a reserve requirement ratio cut in January, which could alleviate uncertainties regarding bank liabilities [6][60] Group 3 - The market is currently facing uncertainty regarding the impact of new public fund regulations, which aim to reshape the industry ecosystem without causing significant short-term disruptions [9][10] - Despite the ongoing concerns about credit expansion and its effects on bank liabilities, the central bank's recent statements suggest a more cautious approach to credit growth, potentially leading to a more stable liquidity environment [43][57] - The bond market may see opportunities for long-term bonds if extreme market fears do not materialize, with a focus on 3-5 year government bonds and perpetual bonds [10][8]

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Outperform the Market," indicating that the overall return of the industry is expected to exceed the market benchmark index by more than 5% over the next 6 months [14]. Core Insights - The report highlights a shift in focus from training AI models to optimizing the reasoning process, emphasizing the importance of real-time inference capabilities [5][6]. - Google's recent advancements in AI, particularly with the Gemini 3 Deep Think mode, showcase a new paradigm where reasoning and memory play crucial roles in problem-solving [3][4]. - The introduction of new algorithms, such as the "Titans" neural memory module, enhances the model's ability to learn and remember historical context, improving its reasoning capabilities [4][5]. Summary by Sections Industry Dynamics - On December 4, 2025, Google introduced the Gemini 3 Deep Think mode to Google AI Ultra subscribers, leveraging parallel thinking techniques to enhance cognitive abilities [3]. - The previous model, Gemini 2.5 Deep Think, encouraged the exploration of extended reasoning paths, allowing AI to generate creative solutions to complex problems over time [3]. Algorithmic Advances - A new architecture supporting learning and memory during inference has been proposed, which combines short-term and long-term memory capabilities [4]. - The "Nested Learning" paradigm mimics human cognitive processes, allowing for continuous learning without forgetting previous knowledge, thus significantly improving computational efficiency [5]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on algorithm optimization for AI reasoning processes and providing sufficient computational power for inference, anticipating a surge in demand for reasoning capabilities [6].

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Outperform the Market," indicating that the overall return of the industry is expected to exceed the market benchmark index by more than 5% in the next 6 months [14]. Core Insights - Nvidia has formed a strategic partnership with AI chip startup Groq to enhance inference technology, with Groq's core team joining Nvidia while continuing to operate independently [3]. - The inference market is experiencing rapid expansion, with a significant increase in demand for inference computing power as the global AI industry transitions from model training to large-scale inference applications [4]. - Groq's technology, featuring LPU and SRAM architecture, optimizes inference performance, allowing for predictable, low-latency execution of large language models [5]. Summary by Sections Event Background - Nvidia and Groq have established a non-exclusive licensing agreement for inference technology, with Groq's leadership team integrating into Nvidia to advance technology upgrades and applications [3]. Industry Trends - The demand for inference computing power is growing rapidly, with Google processing 980 trillion tokens monthly as of July, doubling since May, and domestic models exceeding 50 trillion daily calls, a tenfold increase year-on-year [4]. Groq's Technical Value - Groq's LPU design focuses on speed and accuracy, utilizing static scheduling and deterministic execution to enhance performance in inference tasks. The second-generation LPU is manufactured using Samsung's 4nm process technology, improving speed and efficiency [5]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests a positive outlook on the growth of inference computing demand and related supply chains, recommending attention to wafer fabrication and upstream equipment expansion in the domestic market, as well as growth in optical modules and cabinet assembly outsourcing in the overseas market [6].

行 业 华福证券 黄金 2025 年 12 月 29 日 研 究 行 业 专 题 黄金 黄金供需重构下的机遇：历史复盘与未来定价逻 辑展望 投资要点： 黄金简介 黄金是一种特殊的贵金属，本身不产生利息，但兼具商品属性、 货币属性与金融属性。其物理特性稳定，具有良好的延展性、可塑性 和导电导热性，广泛应用于珠宝首饰、工业技术以及投资储备领域。 黄金供给需求端 报 告 2010 年至 2024 年全球黄金总供应量从 4317 吨增长至 4957 吨，年 复合增速为 1%。其中全球矿产金产量年复合增速为 2%，占总供应量 比例从 64%增长至 74%，但 2016 年后增速明显放缓，近年黄金供应量 增加主因金价上涨后回收金的增加。预计 2025-2027 年全球黄金总供 应量为 5034、5095、5143 吨，三年供应增速为 1.5%/1.2%/0.9%。 黄金的需求主要包含金饰制造、投资、央行购金及科技用金。2000 年至 2025 年，黄金主要需求结构由金饰制造和投资需求主导转变为由 金饰制造、投资需求、央行和各官方机构共同构成。近两年需求增长 主因投资需求和央行购金的增加，其中投资需求增长在 25 年前三季 ...

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Outperform the Market" [6][13]. Core Insights - The domestic AI application sector is poised for explosive growth, with major companies actively investing in AI models and talent [2][6]. - Competition in AI model development and application commercialization is intensifying, with significant advancements in both super entry points and vertical functionalities [2][6]. Summary by Sections Industry Dynamics - Tencent has launched the Tencent HY 2.0 language model, significantly improving performance in complex reasoning scenarios, and has released the HY-World 1.5 model for real-time 3D reconstruction [3]. - Alibaba has open-sourced the Qwen-Image-Edit-2511 model, enhancing character consistency and industrial design adaptability, and upgraded the Qwen3-TTS voice model for comprehensive audio understanding [4]. - ByteDance has released the Doubao model 1.8, enhancing autonomous planning and cross-system collaboration, and introduced the Seedance 1.5 Pro model for audio-visual synchronization [4]. - MiniMax has updated its M2 series model, achieving an average score of 88.6 on the VIBE comprehensive ranking, surpassing several international models in multilingual programming capabilities [4]. - Zhipu AI has launched the GLM-4.7 model, focusing on programming, reasoning, and intelligent agents, supporting 128K long texts and multimodal interactions [4]. Application Commercialization - Tencent's Yuanbao APP has added a novel writing feature and integrated with QQ groups for intelligent message summarization [5]. - Alibaba's Qianwen APP surpassed 40 million monthly active users within 30 days of public testing, integrating local life services and launching an AI drama generation feature [5]. - ByteDance's Doubao series models have achieved a daily usage of over 50 trillion tokens, ranking first in China and third globally, with the Doubao APP's daily active users exceeding 100 million [5]. - MiniMax has collaborated with Kuaikan Manhua to launch the first AI interactive comic, enabling animated and voice-enabled characters [5]. - Zhipu AI has fully integrated the GLM-4.7 model capabilities into its applications, enhancing coding abilities and task planning [5]. Investment Recommendations - The report expresses optimism about the explosive growth potential in the domestic AI application sector, recommending attention to Tencent, Alibaba, MiniMax (upcoming IPO), and Zhipu (upcoming IPO) [6].

Group 1 - The core view of the report highlights that the US stock market is experiencing a "Christmas rally," with the S&P 500 index reaching new highs, supported by a strong GDP growth rate of 4.3% in Q3, which exceeded expectations [2][9] - The report indicates that the year-end liquidity and holiday consumption season are likely to continue supporting market sentiment, although trading may become quieter after the Christmas holiday [2][9] - The report notes that gold and silver prices have surged significantly this year, with gold up over 70% and silver up over 170%, driven by risk aversion and expectations of interest rate cuts [2][9] Group 2 - Economic data shows that the US Q3 GDP annualized growth rate was 4.3%, higher than the previous value of 3.8% and market expectations of 3.3% [3][10] - The report mentions a decrease in initial jobless claims, with the number falling to 214,000 from the previous 224,000 [3][10] - The report tracks global asset performance, noting that NYMEX platinum had the highest increase at 24.70%, followed by COMEX silver at 18.04% and COMEX gold at 4.41% [31][33] Group 3 - In the equity market, the Shenzhen Composite Index had the largest increase at 3.53%, while the UK FTSE 100 saw a decline of 0.27% [36][42] - The report highlights that the materials sector in the US stock market had the highest increase at 3.20%, while the consumer staples sector experienced the largest decline at -0.11% [42] - The report indicates that the foreign exchange market saw the Korean won appreciate by 1.83% against the RMB, while the US dollar depreciated by 0.46% [43][44] Group 4 - The report updates on global economic data, noting a rebound in the Eurozone M3 money supply year-on-year [60][67] - It mentions an increase in the UK industrial trends orders index, indicating positive sentiment in the manufacturing sector [69] - The report states that Japan's PMI remains stable, reflecting consistent economic conditions [71]

Group 1: Macro and Industry Policy Tracking - The report highlights a focus on multi-field collaborative advancement in industry policies, including the cultivation of emerging industries such as integrated circuits and low-altitude economy, as well as strengthening 6G research [1][10] - The housing and urban-rural construction meeting emphasizes stabilizing the real estate market and developing a new model characterized by the sale of existing homes, with a focus on policies tailored to individual cities [1][12] - The transportation department predicts that yacht and cruise consumption will evolve towards mass-market and large-scale development, indicating a shift in consumer behavior [1][13] Group 2: Financial Regulations - The financial regulatory authority has standardized the information disclosure of asset management products to protect investor rights, ensuring transparency and accountability in financial products [1][16] Group 3: Energy and Technology Developments - The energy sector is promoting the large-scale development of solar thermal power and has introduced the world's first mandatory standard for electric vehicle energy consumption, which will enhance vehicle performance and consumer experience [1][18] - A significant technological breakthrough was achieved in the field of superconducting magnetic levitation, with a test speed of 700 km/h, marking a milestone in China's technological advancement [1][19] Group 4: Stock Market Performance - The A-share market showed mixed performance, with the top five sectors by growth being industrial trade and comprehensive (+7.34%), non-ferrous metals (+6.55%), chemicals (+5.86%), national defense and military industry (+5.81%), and hardware equipment (+4.99%) [1][22] Group 5: Popular Concepts Tracking - The report identifies the top five popular concepts this week, with lithium battery electrolyte (+17.80%), Hainan Free Trade Port (+10.98%), 6G (+9.40%), RF and antennas (+9.27%), and power batteries (+8.78%) showing significant growth [2][25]