华福证券 2025 年 06 月 18 日 策 略 研 究 我国 CDMO 行业：核心优势突出，已迈入新阶 段——医疗与消费周观点（2025.6.9—2025.6.13） 投资要点： 近期观点 1、医药指数本周关注的 6 个子行业一半录得正收益，表现一般。 策 略 定 期 报 告 2、CDMO 行业是制药企业的重要合作伙伴，提供工艺开发和生产 服务。中国拥有超 2.2 亿人才资源，为 CDMO 行业提供强大竞争力。 根据沙利文《中国医药 CDMO 行业发展洞察蓝皮书》，2018-2023 年， 中国医药 CDMO 市场规模年复合增长率达 39.9%，预计 2033 年将达 到 5,369 亿人民币。行业进入新阶段，面临地缘政治、产能过剩等挑战， 头部企业通过全球化和技术壁垒构建，有望提升全球地位。 团队成员 分析师： 赵月(S0210524050016) zy30563@hfzq.com.cn 相关报告 风险提示 技术研发不及预期；宏观需求变化；地缘政治影响 证 券 研 究 报 告 诚信专业 发现价值 1 请务必阅读报告末页的声明 华福证券 1、波浪式前进的慢牛新格局——2025 年下半年 中国资本市场展望— ...

Group 1: Core Views - The Chinese capital market is expected to present a "slow bull" pattern characterized by "wave-like progress" in the second half of 2025 [2][51] - The international macroeconomic backdrop shows a slowdown in US economic growth, with the Federal Reserve likely to delay interest rate cuts, anticipating only one cut in the second half of 2025 [2][7] - China's macroeconomic landscape continues to promote high-quality development, with various incentive policies being implemented to support economic growth [2][34] Group 2: Domestic Macro - China's GDP growth is projected to stabilize around 5%, with total GDP expected to reach approximately 141.7 trillion yuan in 2025 [36][34] - The government has emphasized high-quality development in its work report, focusing on technology and macroeconomic stability [37][34] - Policies aimed at stabilizing the real estate and stock markets are being introduced, with a strong intention to support the real economy [37][45] Group 3: Capital Market - The capital market is entering a new development phase, with significant differences in performance among various sectors, particularly small-cap and technology stocks [2][52] - The market's valuation levels have reached historically high points, with some indices experiencing significant gains since September 2024 [52][54] - Structural opportunities are expected to emerge as the market navigates between reality and policy interactions [51][52] Group 4: Investment Strategy - The investment strategy suggests using high-dividend sectors such as coal and hydropower as a defensive measure, while focusing on new productive forces in technology and military sectors as offensive strategies [2][63] - The emphasis on new productive forces is seen as crucial for countering external pressures and ensuring industrial security [63][62]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the consumer electronics sector [8] Core Insights - The electronic sector index increased by 0.73% during the week of June 9 to June 13, 2025, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 0.98 percentage points [1][15] - The brand consumer electronics segment saw significant growth, with a notable increase of 65.19% [1][17] - The report highlights the successful listing of Ying Shi Innovation Technology on the STAR Market, with a first-day opening price of 182 CNY per share, representing a 285% increase from the issue price [88] Summary by Sections 1. Weekly Performance - The electronic sector index rose by 0.73%, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 0.98 percentage points [1][15] - The brand consumer electronics, printed circuit boards, and other electronics III sectors had the highest increases, at 65.19%, 2.22%, and 1.64% respectively [1][15] 2. Consumer Electronics Demand - In Q1 2025, global smartphone shipments increased by 1.53% year-on-year, totaling 305 million units [27] - Global PC shipments in Q1 2025 grew by 4.98% year-on-year, reaching 63.2 million units [41] - The wearable market saw a 13% increase in global shipments of wearable wristbands in Q1 2025, totaling 47 million units [53] - AI smart glasses shipments surged by 215.79% year-on-year in Q1 2025, reaching 600,000 units [74] 3. Industry Dynamics - Ying Shi Innovation Technology's listing on June 11, 2025, raised 1.938 billion CNY, marking the highest fundraising scale on the STAR Market for 2025 [88] - The company reported a revenue of 1.355 billion CNY in Q1 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 40.7% [88] - The report notes that Ying Shi Innovation has a strong focus on R&D, with a cumulative investment of 1.48 billion CNY over the past three years [89] 4. Key Company Announcements - Ying Shi Innovation's successful listing and significant first-day performance highlight the potential for growth in the consumer electronics sector [88] - The report emphasizes the importance of continuous investment in R&D to maintain competitive advantages in technology [89]

相关报告 | 1、中东冲突升级、美再加征关税,美联储还能降 | | --- | | 息吗? ——宏观周报(第8期)——2025.06.13 | | 2、降息当月为何贷款偏少？——金融数据速评 | | (2025.5) -- 2025.06.13 | | 3、美国核心 CPI 会连续走低吗?——美国 CPI | 点评(2025.5) -- 2025.06.12 2025年06月16日 消费强地产弱分化加剧,货币财政或将先后加码 -- 经济数据点评(2025.5) 投资要点: > 社零增速回升创阶段新高,家电通讯补贴效果强化。5月社会消费品 零售总额同比增长 6.4%,较前月回升 1.3个百分点,创 2024年以来阶段性 新高。家电通讯两大类消费补贴效果再度得到强化是主要推升因素,当月 家电音像、通讯器材同比分别增长达 53.0%和 33.0%,增速分别较前月上行 达 14.2 和 13.1个百分点。房地产市场再度趋弱导致对后地产链条耐用品消 费的持续拖累,汽车尽管同样享受以旧换新补贴但同比1.1%第二个月低位 徘徊,建筑装潢材料、家具同比增速分别下滑 3.9、1.3个百分点;此外油 价走低亦拖累石油制品同比跌幅 ...

行 华福证券 业 研 究 行 业 定 期 报 告 汽车 周观点（0609-0613）：整车关注豪华车整车+无 人物流；机器人等催化；低空关注无人机+低空 安全 投资要点： 汽车板块：关注豪华车整车+无人物流 整车仍然认为整体β偏弱，若配置需求建议关注整车龙头+豪华车整车：整 车龙头【比亚迪+吉利汽车+小米集团】，豪华车整车【赛力斯+理想汽车】。 如上周观点汇报，无人物流板块建议关注。特斯拉 Robotaxi 预计 6 月 22 日公开试运营，6 月 28 日开始从工厂到用户全程自动驾驶交付；中国邮政、 顺丰等头部物流企业开始规模化布局无人物流配送；九识智能、新石器等 无人物流车厂商已有订单在手，行业 0-1 或将正式开启，中邮科技等龙头 标的股价开始企稳反弹。仍然建议关注产业逻辑清晰的龙头标的：【中邮 科技】。 人形机器人：等右侧催化 整体观点维持上周，机器人板块等右侧催化。目前从位置看，想交易机器 人的资金在增加，但是由于行业没有较大的边际变化，资金仍然以等待为 主。近期最重要的事件是特斯拉的股东大会，若有超预期的东西，板块或 能迎来行情。核心跟踪股东大会上：特斯拉能否发布类似 19 年电车 model3 ...

固收定期研究 2025 年 6 月 16 日 Table_First|Table_Summary 【华福固收】5y 以上产业债怎么选 ➢ 5y以上产业债怎么选 4月29日以来，信用债利率整体震荡下行，分期限来看，以中票为例，5年期、6年期和 7年期表现不错。目前来看，5年期以上产业债估值所处的历史分位点普遍在3%到7%之 间。品种方面，可关注以下几个方面： 承担较大社会责任、有一定影响力的央企：如中国诚通、中国国新等。6月9日，中国国 新、中国诚通两家国有资本运营公司在银行间市场成功发行395亿元稳增长扩投资专项 债，进一步支持中央企业加强"两重""两新"投资。存续债方面，如25诚通控股MTN001(稳 增长扩投资专项债)剩余期限9.9836年，中债行权估值在2.17%左右。 产投或兼具城投&产业属性的省属国企：这类主体在前期享受了较大政府支持，现阶段 在区域一盘棋的思路下，或仍承担了区域内基建的任务；另一方面，产业属性则暗含着 这类主体可能会被直接注入一定具有现金流业务的资产，在新发债方面或有一定优势。 可关注南通地铁、山东高速、越秀集团等。对收益有较高要求的机构可关注水发集团、 陕旅集团等。如水发集团，2 ...

宏 观 研 究 华福证券 投资要点： 宏 观 点 评 社零增速回升创阶段新高，家电通讯补贴效果强化。5 月社会消费品 零售总额同比增长 6.4%，较前月回升 1.3 个百分点，创 2024 年以来阶段性 新高。家电通讯两大类消费补贴效果再度得到强化是主要推升因素，当月 家电音像、通讯器材同比分别增长达 53.0%和 33.0%，增速分别较前月上行 达 14.2 和 13.1 个百分点。房地产市场再度趋弱导致对后地产链条耐用品消 费的持续拖累，汽车尽管同样享受以旧换新补贴但同比 1.1%第二个月低位 徘徊，建筑装潢材料、家具同比增速分别下滑 3.9、1.3 个百分点；此外油 价走低亦拖累石油制品同比跌幅扩大 1.3 个百分点。限额以上必需品、必 需品占比较高的限额以下商品零售、餐饮收入同比分别增长 9.6%、5.3%、 5.9%，分别较 4 月上行 0.7、1.3、0.7 个百分点，显示必需品和餐饮等服务 消费增长稳健。 固定投资增速降至年内新低，房地产和传统基建是两大拖累。5 月固 定资产投资同比 2.7%，连续第二个月回落 0.8 个百分点，降至年内增速新 低。房地产开发投资同比-12.0%，跌幅较前月扩大 ...

业 研 究 基础化工 新材料周报：生物基 LCP 量产在即，广汽、比亚 迪、吉利等集体宣布缩短至 60 天内 投资要点： 行 业 定 期 报 告 本周行情回顾。本周，Wind 新材料指数收报 3654.03 点，环比上涨 0.68%。 其中，涨幅前五的有泛亚微透(22.02%)、阿科力(16.69%)、博迁新材(15.64%)、 蓝晓科技(9.63%)、久日新材(9.02%)；跌幅前五的有奥克股份(-12.92%)、东材 科技(-6.69%)、飞凯材料(-5.83%)、鼎龙股份(-5.81%)、金宏气体(-5.68%)。六 个子行业中，申万三级行业半导体材料指数收报 5925.79 点，环比下跌 0.72%； 申万三级行业显示器件材料指数收报 1026.78 点，环比下跌 1.5%；中信三级行 业有机硅材料指数收报 5588.22 点，环比下跌 1.71%；中信三级行业碳纤维指 数收报 1112.42 点，环比下跌 4.87%；中信三级行业锂电指数收报 1719.62 点， 环比上涨 1.62%；Wind 概念可降解塑料指数收报 1867.27 点，环比下跌 0.64%。 生物基 LCP 量产在即。全球液晶聚 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the industry [5] Core Insights - The report highlights a divergence in performance among e-commerce platforms for personal care products in May, with sanitary napkins on Tmall declining by 18% year-on-year, while Douyin saw a growth of 32% [6] - The report emphasizes the potential recovery in the home furnishing sector due to government policies aimed at boosting consumption, particularly in first-tier cities [6] - The report notes the introduction of new products by companies like Blokus and the launch of the glo Hilo heated tobacco device by British American Tobacco in Japan, indicating innovation and market expansion [6][10] Summary by Sections Home Furnishing - The Ministry of Commerce reported that the "old-for-new" consumption policy has significantly boosted sales, with a total of 1.1 trillion yuan in sales and 175 million subsidies issued by May 31, 2025 [6] - The report suggests that the home furnishing industry is expected to gradually recover as most companies are currently valued at historical lows, recommending leading companies such as Oppein Home, Sophia, and Zhihong Home [6] Paper and Packaging - As of June 13, 2025, the prices for various paper products showed mixed trends, with double glue paper at 5162.5 yuan/ton (unchanged) and corrugated paper at 2543.13 yuan/ton (down 38.12 yuan/ton) [6] - The report recommends companies like Sun Paper and Huawang Technology, which are expected to benefit from improved industry dynamics [6] Light Industry Consumption - The report indicates that personal care e-commerce sales are diverging, with sanitary napkins on Tmall down 18% year-on-year, while Douyin saw a 32% increase [6] - The report highlights the strong performance of domestic brands during the 618 shopping festival, suggesting a favorable outlook for local brands [6] Export Chain - In May, the export value of key light industrial products decreased by 5.4% year-on-year, with ongoing negotiations between China and the US potentially leading to reduced tariffs [6] - The report notes an increase in shipping costs, with the CCFI and SCFI indices rising by 11.2% and 8.1% respectively [6] New Tobacco Products - The glo Hilo device was launched in Japan at a price of approximately $23.44, with a significant improvement in product features compared to previous models [6][10] - The report suggests that the introduction of new heated tobacco products may drive user transition to these innovations [10] Textile and Apparel - The textile and apparel sector showed resilience, with the industry index outperforming the market, indicating a positive trend for brands like HLA and Anta [26][29]

策 略 研 究 华福证券 策略定期研究 2025 年 6 月 15 日 行业热点：暑假电影档即将拉开序幕，SNEC 大会开幕。（1）暑假电 影档即将拉开序幕，中外影片供给多元。（2）SNEC 大会开幕，行业"反 内卷"共识强化。（3）多家车企承诺账期不超 60 天，产业链资金状况有 望优化。 相关报告 如何看 3400 点拉锯战？ 投资要点： 本周（6/9-6/13）市场先扬后抑，全 A 收跌-0.27%。从指数情况看， 仅创业板指收涨，中证 1000、科创 50 领跌。从风格情况看，医药医疗、 周期领涨，科技、消费领跌。本周 31 个申万行业涨少跌多，有色金属、石 油石化、农林牧渔领涨，建筑材料、家用电器、食品饮料领跌。 策 略 定 期 报 告 市场观察：股债收益差小于+1 标准差，市场情绪提振。（1）市场估 值：股债收益差下降至 1.3%，小于+1 标准差。估值分化系数有所下降。（2） 市场情绪：市场情绪提振，行业轮动强度上升。市场大盘风格占优，微盘 股指数跑赢市场，主题热度主要聚集在稀土永磁、黄金珠宝、油气开采。 （3）市场结构：市场量能环比上升，非银金融、有色金属、传媒多头个股 占比居前，美容护理、计 ...