Investment Rating - The investment rating for Tianshan Aluminum (002532.SZ) is "Buy" (maintained) [3] Core Views - Tianshan Aluminum is expected to see significant growth in its H1 2024 performance, benefiting from rising aluminum prices and stable costs. The company forecasts a net profit attributable to shareholders of 2.07 billion yuan for H1 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 103% [5][8] - The company is actively pursuing an integrated industrial chain strategy, with ongoing projects such as a 2 million-ton alumina project in Indonesia, which is expected to enhance cost advantages [6][8] Summary by Sections Basic Data - Current stock price is 8.71 yuan, with a total market capitalization of 40.5 billion yuan and total share capital of 4,652 million shares [1][2] Performance Forecast - For H1 2024, the average selling price of aluminum ingots increased by approximately 7% year-on-year, while the average selling price of alumina rose by about 26%. The production costs for both aluminum ingots and alumina remained stable compared to the previous year [5] - The average price of A00 aluminum in the Chinese market for H1 2024 was 19,781 yuan per ton, up 6.99% year-on-year, and the average price of alumina was 3,505 yuan per ton, up 12.76% year-on-year [5] Production Goals - The company's main production targets for 2024 include: - Primary aluminum output of 1.16 million tons - Power generation of 13 billion kWh - Alumina output of 2.35 million tons - Pre-baked anode output of 550,000 tons - Bauxite output of 3 million tons - High-purity aluminum output of 25,000 tons - Aluminum foil and aluminum foil blank output of 100,000 tons [5] Project Developments - The alumina project in Indonesia is progressing smoothly, with the first phase targeting an annual capacity of 1 million tons. The project has been included in Indonesia's national strategic project list and is currently in the design phase [6] - The company is also seeking to realize a 200,000-ton electrolytic aluminum capacity indicator that has yet to be constructed [7] Earnings Forecast - Projected revenues for Tianshan Aluminum from 2024 to 2026 are 33.07 billion yuan, 35.27 billion yuan, and 38.50 billion yuan, respectively. The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be 4.21 billion yuan, 4.77 billion yuan, and 5.26 billion yuan for the same period. The current stock price corresponds to a PE ratio of 9.6, 8.5, and 7.7 times for the respective years [8][10]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook for its stock performance in the coming year [21]. Core Insights - The company is expected to achieve a net profit attributable to shareholders of 0.975-1.045 billion yuan in the first half of 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 40%-50% [4]. - The company has a strong order backlog, with disclosed project sales nearing 10 billion yuan and an average project lifecycle of around 6 years, primarily from overseas clients [17]. - The company is expanding its product offerings and applications, particularly in the fields of energy storage and new energy commercial vehicles, which is expected to drive long-term revenue growth [8]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - The company forecasts a net profit of 0.505-0.575 billion yuan for Q2 2024, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 33%-51% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 7%-22% [17]. - The expected net profits for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are projected to be 3 billion, 4 billion, and 5 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding EPS of 0.83, 1.11, and 1.38 yuan [21]. Market Position and Strategy - The company is enhancing its production capacity in both domestic and overseas markets, with new subsidiaries established in Singapore, Mexico, and Thailand to support international trade and manufacturing [6]. - The company has secured a significant contract with a North American electric vehicle client, which is expected to generate total sales of approximately 365 million yuan over a project lifecycle of 2-3 years [6]. Growth Potential - The company is actively exploring new product applications, which are anticipated to contribute to revenue growth and help overcome revenue ceilings [8]. - The report highlights that the company's core business in mica materials is supported by a robust order book, which is expected to continue growing in the second half of 2024 [17].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [2][8] Core Insights - The company is expected to see a significant increase in net profit for the first half of 2024, with a forecasted net profit of 2.07 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 103% [4] - The growth in performance is primarily attributed to the rise in alumina and electrolytic aluminum prices, along with stable production costs [5] - The average selling price of aluminum ingots increased by approximately 7% year-on-year, while the average selling price of alumina rose by about 26% [5] - The report highlights the company's ongoing investment in a 2 million-ton alumina project in Indonesia, which is expected to enhance cost advantages through integrated operations [6][7] Financial Performance - The company forecasts revenues of 33.07 billion yuan, 35.27 billion yuan, and 38.50 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with net profits of 4.21 billion yuan, 4.77 billion yuan, and 5.26 billion yuan for the same years [8][10] - The current stock price corresponds to a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 9.6, 8.5, and 7.7 for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively [8] Production Goals - The company's production targets for 2024 include 1.16 million tons of primary aluminum, 13 billion kWh of electricity, 2.35 million tons of alumina, and 550,000 tons of prebaked anodes [5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" investment rating for the company [2][3] Core Views - The company is experiencing performance pressure during a reform period, with a focus on demand recovery and strategy optimization [2] - The second quarter of 2024 saw a decline in both revenue and profit due to weak industry demand, with expected revenue of 2.62 billion yuan, a decrease of 1% year-on-year, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 315-378 million yuan, compared to a loss of 1.443 billion yuan in the same period of 2023 [2] - The company is undergoing a strategic adjustment, shifting from channel-driven to consumer-driven policies, which has led to temporary resistance due to internal interest distribution adjustments [2] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - The company expects Q2 2024 revenue to be 1.135 billion yuan, down 12% year-on-year, with a net profit of 76-139 million yuan, compared to a loss of 159.3 million yuan in the same period of 2023 [2] - The report forecasts a gradual recovery in performance as external demand improves and internal reform effects are realized, with projected EPS for 2024-2026 at 1.11, 1.37, and 1.69 yuan respectively [3][4] Market Position and Strategy - The company is focusing on optimizing its channel strategy and enhancing customer service quality while gradually adjusting its team structure and channel management to adapt to the current development stage [2] - The company aims to promote product upgrades towards high-end and health-oriented offerings, which is expected to contribute to revenue growth in the future [2] Earnings Forecast - The report provides earnings forecasts for 2023A to 2026E, with main revenue expected to grow from 5.139 billion yuan in 2023 to 8.094 billion yuan in 2026, reflecting a growth rate of 17% in 2024 [4][5] - The net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to decrease significantly in 2024 to 873 million yuan, before recovering to 1.322 billion yuan by 2026 [4][5]

证 券 2024 年 07 月 10 日 研 究 报 告 公 司 研 究 2024H1 净利同比高增,持续推进国际化产能布 局 —森麒麟(002984.SZ)公司事件点评报告 森麒麟发布业绩预告:预计 2024 年半年度实现归母净利润 10 亿元到 12 亿元,同比增加 64.95%到 97.94%;扣非归母净 利润 10 亿元到 12 亿元,同比增加 71.5%到 105.8%。单二季 度实现归母净利润为 4.96-6.96 亿元,同比增加 39%到 96%; 环比增加-2%到 38% 投资要点 ▌海外市场需求旺盛,降本增效助力业绩提升 在海外市场,公司高品质、高性能半钢胎产品在欧美轮胎市 场订单需求持续处于供不应求状态,同时公司持续稳健开拓 具备高增长潜力的国内市场。公司持续进行内部流程再造, 最大限度地实现人员、设备、软件的有机结合,不断提升适 应公司智能制造模式的管理水平,最大程度地释放智能制造 的效应,不断实现降本增效,人均效益、生产效率、产品品 质提升,与公司智能制造相匹配的精细化管理模式进一步提 升了公司盈利能力。与此同时,森麒麟泰国取得美国商务部 对泰国乘用车和轻卡轮胎反倾销调查第一次年度行政 ...

2024 年 07 月 10 日 研 究 利润承压明显,动销逐步向好 买入(维持) 事件 | | | |--------------------|----------------| | 分析师:孙山山 | S1050521110005 | | sunss@cfsc.com.cn | | | 联系人:肖燕南 | S1050123060024 | | xiaoyn@cfsc.com.cn | | 基本数据 2024-07-09 当前股价(元) 39 总市值(亿元) 127 总股本(百万股) 325 流通股本(百万股) 325 52 周价格范围(元) 38.78-106.38 日均成交额(百万元) 419.76 市场表现 -80 -60 -40 -20 0 20 (%) 酒鬼酒 沪深300 资料来源:Wind,华鑫证券研究 相关研究 1、《酒鬼酒(000799):费用改革 持续推进,聚焦策略效果显现》 2024-06-30 2、《酒鬼酒(000799):坚持费用 改革,期待业绩拐点》2024-04-29 3、《酒鬼酒(000799):百酿馥郁 百炼成金,坚定信心赢战长期》 2023-12-10 报 告 公 司 研 ...

2024 年 07 月 10 日 究 2024H1 业绩大幅增长,看好制冷剂景气度提升 —巨化股份(600160.SH)公司事件点评报告 买入(维持) 事件 巨化股份发布公告:预计 2024 年半年度实现归母净利润 7.4 亿元到 8.8 亿元,同比增长 51%到 80%;扣非归母净利润 7.0 亿元到 8.4 亿元,同比增长 53%到 84%。第二季度单季度实现 归母净利润为 4.3-5.7 亿元,同比增加 28%到 69%;环比增加 39%到 84%。 投资要点 ▌2024H1 制冷剂景气度上行,公司业绩改善 2024 年上半年,公司业绩实现同比增长,主要得益于年初配 额落地之后氟制冷剂产品价格的恢复性上涨,同时公司制冷 剂销量同比也有一定幅度增加,量价齐升带来公司业绩大幅 改善。上半年公司制冷剂产量达 30 万吨,同比增长 22%,销 量达 16 万吨,同比增长 12%,贡献营收 39 亿元,同比 +37%。制冷剂业务的大幅改善是公司收入和利润增长的主要 因素。 ▌ 多产品产销高增,食品包装材料表现较弱 2024H1 公司基础化工产品产量、销量稳步提升,同比分别 +15%/16%,但受到烧碱等产品拖累, ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" investment rating for the company [24][30]. Core Views - The company is benefiting from the growing demand in the plant extract market and its improved operational capabilities, leading to significant revenue growth. The expected net profit for the first half of 2024 is projected to be between 54-65 million, representing a year-on-year increase of 50%-80% [25]. - The company is expanding into synthetic biology and enhancing its product offerings to meet customized client needs, with plans to complete the construction of a stevia extraction plant and synthetic biology workshop in 2024 [30]. - The company aims to leverage opportunities in emerging markets like ASEAN to solidify its market position and drive sustainable growth [30]. Financial Summary - Revenue projections for 2023A, 2024E, 2025E, and 2026E are 1,494 million, 1,793 million, 2,115 million, and 2,453 million respectively, with growth rates of 6.7%, 20.0%, 18.0%, and 16.0% [16]. - The expected net profit for 2023A, 2024E, 2025E, and 2026E is 83 million, 180 million, 246 million, and 347 million respectively, with growth rates of -53.8%, 117.9%, 37.0%, and 40.7% [16]. - The projected EPS for 2024, 2025, and 2026 is 0.24, 0.33, and 0.47 respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 27, 20, and 14 [30].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" investment rating for the company [5][9] Core Views - The company is expected to achieve a significant increase in net profit for the first half of 2024, with estimates ranging from 2.12 billion to 2.18 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 102.68% to 108.41% [2][3] - The company's production and sales volumes have reached historical highs, driven by its globalization strategy, technological innovation, and brand development [3][5] - Cost pressures are easing, with a potential for further profit improvement in the third quarter due to declining raw material prices [4][5] - The company is committed to its global development strategy, with ongoing capacity expansions in Cambodia, Vietnam, and plans for new projects in Mexico and Indonesia [5][8] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - The company forecasts revenues of 32.88 billion, 38.16 billion, and 41.15 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with corresponding EPS of 1.23, 1.49, and 1.66 yuan [9][11] - The projected growth rates for revenue are 26.6% in 2024, 16.1% in 2025, and 7.8% in 2026 [11] Production and Sales - The company has achieved over 30% year-on-year growth in sales for its full-steel, semi-steel, and non-road tire products [3][5] - The production capacity is being enhanced with new projects in Cambodia and Vietnam, aiming for a total annual production capacity of 21 million semi-steel tires and 1.65 million full-steel tires [5][8] Cost Management - The average prices for key raw materials such as natural rubber and styrene-butadiene rubber have increased significantly, but recent trends indicate a potential decrease in costs [4][5] - The INE shipping index has also shown a significant drop, which may further alleviate cost pressures [4][5]

2024 年 07 月 09 日 证 报 告 | --- | --- | --- | --- | |-------|-------|-------|-------------------------------------------------| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 投资建议 行业指数相对同期证券市场代表性指数涨幅 | | 1 | | 推荐 | > 10% | | 2 | | 中性 | -10% — 10% | | 3 | | 回避 | < -10% | 行业投资评级说明： 以报告日后的 12 个月内，预测个股或行业指数相对于相关证券市场主要指数 的涨跌幅为标准。 相关证券市场代表性指数说明：A 股市场以沪深 300 指数为基准；新三板市场 以三板成指（针对协议转让标的）或三板做市指数（针对做市转让标的）为基 准；香港市场以恒生指数为基准；美国市场以道琼斯指数为基准。 ▌ 免责条款 华鑫证券有限责任公司（以下简称"华鑫证券"）具有中国证监会核准的证券 请阅读最后一页重要免责声明 12 诚信、专业、稳健、高效 证券研究报告 投资咨询业务资格。本报告由华鑫证券制作，仅供华鑫证 ...