证 2024 年 05 月 02 日 研 报 告 公 研 | --- | --- | --- | |---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|--------------------------|----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ...

证 2024 年 04 月 30 日 报 告 基本数据 2024-04-30 当前股价（元） 20.31 总市值（亿元） 126 总股本（百万股） 620 流通股本（百万股） 620 52 周价格范围（元） 18.16-41.3 日均成交额（百万元） 201.37 公 司 研 究 门店数量稳定增长，成本下降盈利水平回升 —绝味食品（603517.SH）公司事件点评报告 投资要点 2024 年 04 月 29 日，绝味食品发布 2023 年度及 2024 年度一 季度业绩报告。 ▌ 门店持续增长，经营态势稳定 公司发布 2023 年业绩报告，2023 年实现收入 72.61 亿元 （同比+9.64%），其中全国门店总数 15950 家（同比净增加 874 家或+5.8%）。2023 年毛利率实现 24.77%（同比0.80pct），净利润率 4.37%（同比+1.44pcts），归母净利 润 3.44 亿元（同比+48.07%），扣非归母净利润 4.01 亿元 （ 同 比 +55.88% ） 。 2023Q4 收 入 16.30 亿元（ 同 比 +8.45%），毛利率 26.90%（同比+4.41pcts），归 ...

证 告 司 2024 年 05 月 06 日 公 研 ▌ 盈利预测 历经 2020-2022 年内外压力测试下业绩承压，2023 年公司业 绩扭亏为盈，预测公司 2024-2026 年收入分别为 28.79、 30.95、33.75 亿元，归母利润 1.98、2.93、3.90 亿元，当 前股价对应 PE 分别为 53.0、35.8、26.9 倍，公司主业端困 境反转渐显，新增端，伴随 AI 应用年开启，以 IP 为支点 （公司已覆盖全年龄段 IP 矩阵），有望撬动玩具、授权等业 务，AI 加持下有望赋予公司在手 IP 不同形式的生命力，通 过创造新内容、构建新场景、触发新消费助力其 IP 商业价值 再放异彩，进而维持"买入"投资评级。 ▌ 风险提示 市场竞争加剧风险；IP 开发不及预期的风险；业绩不及预期 带来商誉减值的风险；业务快速扩张带来的管理风险；新上 玩具销售不及预期的风险；人才资源不足风险；应收账款及 信用资产减值的风险；项目成本控制风险以及项目实施的管 理风险；创新业务拓展不及预期的风险；新技术应用不及预 期的风险；宏观经济波动风险。 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- ...

▌ 盈利预测 请阅读最后一页重要免责声明 2 司 | --- | --- | --- | |----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|--------------------------------------------------------------|-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" investment rating for the company [10][17]. Core Views - The company is expected to consolidate its leading position in the dairy product market within its region while continuing its expansion outside the region. The impact of the new acquisition is anticipated to gradually diminish [10]. - The first quarter of 2024 showed total revenue of 641 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1%, while net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 92% to 5 million yuan, indicating short-term pressure on profits due to weak consumer demand and intense market competition [18]. - The company is accelerating the optimization of its cattle structure, which is expected to improve production efficiency and lay the foundation for profit recovery [18]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q1 2024, the company's gross margin decreased by 4 percentage points to 16.43%, with net profit margin down by 9 percentage points to 0.08% [18]. - Revenue from various product segments in Q1 2024 was as follows: ambient dairy products at 363 million yuan (up 3%), low-temperature dairy products at 240 million yuan (down 2%), livestock products at 31 million yuan (up 10%), and other products at 4 million yuan (up 74%) [19]. Market Expansion - The company has seen a net increase of 25 distributors, with a focus on expanding its distribution network outside its home region, which has shown steady growth [19]. - Revenue from the home region was 371 million yuan (up 1%), while revenue from outside the region was 267 million yuan (up 4%) in Q1 2024 [19]. Earnings Forecast - The forecast for earnings per share (EPS) for 2024, 2025, and 2026 is 0.55 yuan, 0.68 yuan, and 0.80 yuan respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 17, 14, and 12 times [10][26].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [10]. Core Views - The company has shown a recovery in profit growth, with lean production efforts yielding positive results [10]. - In Q1 2024, the company reported total revenue of 643 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 11%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 10 million yuan, a significant increase of 126% year-on-year [10]. - The gross margin improved by 1 percentage point to 30.60% in Q1 2024, indicating enhanced profitability [10]. - The report highlights strong growth in direct sales channels, with online channels expected to continue their upward trend [10]. Financial Summary - The company's revenue forecast for 2023A is 2,643 million yuan, with expected growth rates of 8.7% for 2023, 11.3% for 2024, 10.5% for 2025, and 9.1% for 2026 [19]. - The net profit forecast for 2023A is 22 million yuan, with growth rates of 117.2% for 2023, 185.1% for 2024, 42.5% for 2025, and 36.9% for 2026 [19]. - The diluted earnings per share (EPS) is projected to be 0.06 yuan for 2023, increasing to 0.31 yuan by 2026 [19]. - The return on equity (ROE) is expected to rise from 2.0% in 2023 to 9.4% in 2026 [19].

Investment Rating - The report gives an "Accumulate" investment rating for the company, indicating a potential upside of more than 10% compared to the market index [10][14]. Core Viewpoints - The company is increasing its market promotion efforts and actively expanding its domestic and international customer base, maintaining close communication with clients to enhance service capabilities [3]. - The company has a strong brand image and market position in the integrated circuit packaging and testing industry, with a high customer retention rate and resource barriers [3]. - The establishment of the "Malaysia Production and Operation Center" is expected to enhance the company's service capabilities in overseas markets [3][41]. - Despite short-term performance pressure due to a decline in the global electronics market demand, the company is expected to benefit from increased semiconductor testing equipment demand driven by developments in new energy, electric vehicles, and AI computing [12][14]. Financial Summary - The company's revenue for 2023 is projected at 347 million, with a forecasted growth to 459 million in 2024, representing a growth rate of 32.2% [15]. - The net profit for 2023 is estimated at 85 million, with a significant increase to 139 million in 2024, reflecting a growth rate of 64.1% [15]. - The earnings per share (EPS) are projected to rise from 1.41 in 2023 to 2.32 in 2024 [15]. - The company is expected to maintain a return on equity (ROE) of 9.1% in 2024, up from 6.1% in 2023 [15]. Market Position and Strategy - The company is focusing on upgrading its testing machines and increasing R&D investment, which is expected to enhance its product offerings and meet evolving customer needs [12][14]. - The company has achieved significant technological advancements, including high-speed motion adaptive control technology and three-dimensional precision positioning compensation technology, which are crucial for maintaining competitiveness in the semiconductor testing equipment market [12][13].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" investment rating for the company [2][28]. Core Insights - The company is expected to experience revenue growth from 2.3 billion in 2024 to 3.144 billion in 2026, with corresponding EPS increasing from 0.57 to 0.90 [2][33]. - The company has faced challenges in overseas market expansion and increased domestic competition, but it is positioned to benefit from a growing market for European-style cranes [3][28]. - New orders have reached a historical high, indicating strong demand and potential for future growth, particularly in international markets [28]. Financial Forecast - Revenue projections for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are 2,300 million, 2,672 million, and 3,144 million respectively, with growth rates of 15.5%, 16.2%, and 17.6% [33]. - The net profit for the same years is forecasted to be 205 million, 256 million, and 323 million, with growth rates of 25.3%, 25.1%, and 26.1% [33]. - The diluted EPS is expected to rise from 0.57 in 2024 to 0.90 in 2026, with a corresponding decrease in P/E ratio from 14.3 to 9.1 [33].

证 券 2024 年 04 月 30 日 研 究 一季度业绩复苏，渠道优化持续推进 报 告 —海天味业（603288.SH）公司事件点评报告 买入(维持) 事件 分析师：孙山山 S1050521110005 2024 年 4 月 26 日，海天味业发布 2023 年年度报告与 2024 sunss@cfsc.com.cn 年一季度报告。 投资要点 基本数据 2024-04-30 ▌一季度开门红表现良好，成本下行利好盈利 当前股价（元） 39.26 总市值（亿元） 2183 公 司 2023/2023Q4/2024Q1 总 营 收 分 别 为 总股本（百万股） 5561 245.59/59.09/76.94 亿元，分别同比-4%/-9%/+10%，归母净 利润分别为 56.27/12.98/19.19 亿元，分别同比-9%/- 流通股本（百万股） 5561 15%/+12%。盈利端， 2023/2024Q1 公司毛利率分别为 52周价格范围（元） 33.7-69.36 34.74%/37.31%，同比-1pct/+0.4pct，主要系原材料成本下 日均成交额（百万元） 448.06 降所致，销售费用率分别为 5 ...

证 研 告 研 证券研究报告 我们看好公司瓜子和坚果并驾齐驱发展，渠道精耕不断释放 业绩增量，随着成本压力缓解，公司盈利能力有望边际改 善。根据年报和一季度报，预计 2024-2026 年 EPS 分别为 2.13/2.53/2.95 元，当前股价对应 PE 分别为 18/15/13 倍， 维持"买入"投资评级。 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |----------------------|-------------------------|-------|-------|-------| | 预测指标 | 2023A 2024E 2025E 2026E | | | | | 主营收入（百万元） | 6,806 | 7,813 | 8,842 | 9,811 | | 增长率（ %） -1.1% | | 14.8% | 13.2% | 11.0% | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 803 | 1,080 | 1,281 | 1,497 | | 增长率（%） | -17.8% | 34.6% | 18.6% | 16.9% | | 摊薄每股收益（元） | 1.58 | 2.13 | ...