2024 年4 月3 日 医药: 超配 证券研究报告 / 业绩点评报告 翰森制药 (3692 HK, 买入, 目标价: HK$19.91) 自主研发和 BD 合作推动公司业绩稳健增长 目标价: HK$19.91 当前股价: HK$15.48 • 创新药收入增长和对外授权收入使得公司2023 年利润增速快速增长。 股价上行/下行空间 +29% 52周最高/最低价 (HK$) 17.24/9.41 • 自主研发和BD 合作形成差异化管线布局。 市值 (US$mn) 11,701 • 维持买入，将DCF 目标价上调至HK$19.91 (WACC: 9.1%)。 当前发行数量(百万股) 5,916 三个月平均日交易額 11 2023 年创新药收入保持快速增长：根据公司公告，2023 实现营收/ 归母净利润 101.4 亿 (US$mn) 流通盘占比 (%) 41 元 / 32.8 亿元，同比+7.7%/ 26.9%。其中，医药产品的销售收入为94 亿元，同比+1.1%。 主要股东 (%) 创新药收入同比增加37.1%至68.7 亿元，占公司总收入的比例上升至67.9%（2022 年为 Stellar Infinity ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of RMB 20.40, down from the previous target of RMB 24.60 [1][9]. Core Insights - The automotive safety business has completed its integration, and the report is optimistic about sustained growth in performance. The overseas automotive safety business continued to reduce losses in Q4 2023, with an annual gross margin exceeding expectations at 15.1% [1][2]. - In Q4 2023, new orders reached RMB 14.7 billion, with expectations for orders from German automotive companies in 2024 [2][7]. - The report projects a revenue adjustment for 2024-2025, with expected revenues of RMB 643.0 billion and RMB 728.4 billion, representing year-on-year growth of 15.4% and 13.3% respectively [7][8]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q4 2023, the company achieved revenue of RMB 144.2 billion, a quarter-on-quarter increase of 2.6% and a year-on-year increase of 0.9%. The gross margin for Q4 was 18.4%, up 6.6 percentage points year-on-year [1][6]. - For the full year 2023, the company reported revenue of RMB 557.3 billion, an 11.9% increase year-on-year, with a gross margin of 15.1%, up 3.1 percentage points year-on-year. The net profit attributable to shareholders was RMB 10.8 billion, a significant increase of 174.8% year-on-year [1][5]. Order Book and Future Projections - The total new orders for 2023 amounted to approximately RMB 737 billion, with new energy orders accounting for RMB 442 billion, or about 60% of the total. The company expects to fully turn around its North American automotive safety business in 2024, further enhancing profitability [2][7]. - The report introduces 2026 performance forecasts, estimating revenues of RMB 786.7 billion and net profits of RMB 22.7 billion, reflecting year-on-year growth of 8.0% and 11.9% respectively [7][8]. Valuation Adjustments - The report slightly lowers the company's 2024 P/E valuation to 20 times, down from 23 times, reflecting the completed integration of the automotive safety business and the expectation of steady profit growth in 2024 [9][10].

2024 年3 月28 日 耐用消费品及服装: 超配 证券研究报告 / 业绩点评报告 安踏体育 (2020 HK, 买入, 目标价: HK$105.55) 23 年业绩亮眼，预计 24 年营收同比增长 12.8% 目标价: HK$105.55 当前股价: HK$82.00 • 2023 年营收表现符合预期，利润端略超预期； 股价上行/下行空间 +29% 52周最高/最低价 (HK$) 118.40/60.20 • 我们预计2024 年营收/归母净利润分别同比增长12.8%/ 22.8%至703.2/ 125.7 亿 市值 (US$mn) 29,690 元； 当前发行数量(百万股) 2,833 • 维持买入评级，上调目标价9%至105.55 港元，对应20 倍2025 年P/E。 三个月平均日交易額 83 (US$mn) 23 年利润端表现略超预期：1）安踏体育发布23 年业绩，营收/归母净利润分别同比增长 流通盘占比 (%) 100 16.2%/ 34.9%至623.6/102.4 亿元，折算2H23 营收/归母净利润分别同比增长18.1%/ 主要股东 (%) 37.1%至327.1/54.9 亿元，营收端符 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of HK$29.83, reflecting a potential upside of 49% from the current price of HK$19.96 [2][4][12]. Core Insights - The company's 2023 performance was slightly below expectations, with revenue and net profit growing by 8% and 6% year-on-year, respectively. The gross margin decreased by 0.46 percentage points to 8.13% [2][6]. - The company is expected to maintain a high dividend yield, projected at 4.2% for 2023, supported by robust free cash flow [2][12]. - Future revenue growth is anticipated from the distribution business, with a stable growth forecast for pharmaceutical distribution and medical device distribution [2][3]. Financial Data Summary - **Revenue Forecasts**: The company is projected to achieve revenues of RMB 672.5 billion in 2024, RMB 746.3 billion in 2025, and RMB 824.9 billion in 2026, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 11% from 2023 to 2026 [1][10]. - **Net Profit Forecasts**: The net profit is expected to grow from RMB 9.1 billion in 2023 to RMB 13.0 billion by 2026, indicating a CAGR of 13% [1][10]. - **Earnings Per Share (EPS)**: EPS is projected to increase from RMB 2.90 in 2023 to RMB 4.17 in 2026 [1][10]. - **Valuation Metrics**: The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is expected to decrease from 7.0x in 2023 to 4.4x in 2026, indicating a potentially undervalued stock [1][10]. Segment Performance - **Pharmaceutical Distribution**: Revenue from pharmaceutical distribution is expected to reach RMB 485.2 billion in 2024, growing steadily [17]. - **Medical Device Distribution**: Projected revenue for medical device distribution is RMB 149.7 billion in 2024, showing consistent growth despite a slowdown compared to previous years [17]. - **Retail Pharmacy**: Retail pharmacy revenue is forecasted to grow to RMB 48.0 billion in 2024, driven by the increasing demand for specialty drugs [17]. Adjustments and Forecast Changes - The report has adjusted the revenue forecasts for 2024 and 2025 down by 3% due to the company's 2023 performance being slightly below expectations [10][12]. - The gross profit and net profit forecasts for 2024 and 2025 have also been revised down by 8% and 9%, respectively [10][12]. Market Comparison - The company's current P/E ratio of 6.6x is lower than the average of comparable companies, suggesting potential for price appreciation [14][15].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for China Resources Sanjiu (000999 CH) with a target price of RMB 74.40, reflecting a potential upside of 42% from the current price of RMB 52.32 [1][4]. Core Insights - In 2023, the company's net profit met expectations, with revenue and net profit reaching RMB 24.739 billion and RMB 2.853 billion, respectively, representing year-on-year growth of 37% and 16% [1][2]. - The CHC (Consumer Health Care) business showed steady growth, while the prescription drug segment faced challenges due to regulatory changes and market competition [2][11]. - The subsidiary Kunming Pharmaceutical aims to double its revenue over the next five years, targeting over RMB 10 billion in pharmaceutical industrial revenue by 2028 [2][11]. Financial Summary - Revenue for 2023 was RMB 24.739 billion, with a gross profit of RMB 13.172 billion, resulting in a gross margin of 53.2%, down from 54.0% in 2022 [8][19]. - The company plans to distribute a dividend of RMB 15 per 10 shares, achieving a dividend payout ratio of 52% and a dividend yield of 2.9% [1][8]. - The forecasted compound annual growth rates (CAGR) for revenue and net profit from 2023 to 2026 are 11% and 15%, respectively [1][2]. Business Segment Performance - The CHC business generated RMB 11.707 billion in revenue, growing by 3% year-on-year, while the prescription drug segment saw a decline of 13% to RMB 5.220 billion [2][9]. - Kunming Pharmaceutical's revenue decreased by 7% to RMB 7.703 billion, but it achieved a net profit of RMB 4.45 billion, up 16% year-on-year [2][11]. - The company’s overall net profit margin decreased to 12.8%, down from 13.5% in the previous year [8][19]. Valuation and Forecast Adjustments - The DCF target price was slightly reduced by 2% to RMB 74.40 due to adjustments in earnings forecasts for 2024-2025 [14][19]. - The projected earnings per share (EPS) for 2024 is RMB 3.49, with a P/E ratio of 21x, aligning with comparable companies [4][14]. - Revenue forecasts for 2024-2025 have been adjusted downwards by 15%-17% due to a slowdown in the retail pharmacy market and challenges in the prescription drug segment [11][12].

2024 年3 月28 日 医药: 超配 证券研究报告 / 业绩点评报告 信达生物 (1801 HK, 买入, 目标价: HK$54.50) 心血管和代谢产品有望推动公司业绩快速增长 目标价: HK$54.50 当前股价: HK$38.55 • 多元化产品组合有望推动公司24-26 年收入CAGR 保持30%左右的增速。 股价上行/下行空间 +41% • 经营效率持续提升，公司财务表现将持续获益。 52周最高/最低价 (HK$) 49.80/27.30 市值 (US$mn) 7,173 • 重申“买入”评级；下调DCF 目标价至54.50 港元。 当前发行数量(百万股) 1,456 三个月平均日交易額 51 23 年产品收入增长迅速，24 年有望保持增长趋势：根据公司23 年年报，公司实现产品收 (US$mn) 入57.28 亿元，同比增长38.4%。公司以PD-1 为核心的主导产品均保持快速增长势头。 流通盘占比 (%) 57 2023 年，公司毛利率为81.7%，同比增长2.1ppt，主要系生产效率提升和生产成本持续 主要股东 (%) TLS BETA 6 降低。2023 年公司商业化产品增至10 款（2 ...

2024 年3 月28 日 消费服务: 中性 证券研究报告 / 业绩点评报告 九毛九国际 (9922 HK, 买入, 目标价: HK$7.00) 当前估值仍具吸引力 目标价: HK$7.00 当前股价: HK$5.27 • 2023 年业绩符合预期，太二继续快速增长； 股价上行/下行空间 +33% 52周最高/最低价 (HK$) 19.26/4.42 • 持续变革寻找需求，测算市值大概率介于77-130 亿港元，当前估值仍具吸引力； 市值 (US$mn) 968 • 维持买入评级，维持7.00 港元目标价不变，对应15 倍2024 年P/E。 当前发行数量(百万股) 1,437 三个月平均日交易額 10 2023 年业绩符合预期，太二继续快速增长：1）九毛九发布2023 年业绩，营收同比增长 (US$mn) 流通盘占比 (%) 100 49.4%至59.9 亿元，实现归母净利润4.5 亿元；折算2H23 营收同比增长47.5%至31.1 主要股东 (%) 亿元，归母净利润2.3 亿元。2）太二品牌：23 年净开128 家门店至578 家，翻座率也改 GYH J Limited 37 善15.4%至3.0 次/ ...

2024 年3 月27 日 医药: 超配 证券研究报告 / 业绩点评报告 石药 (1093 HK, 买入, 目标价: HK$9.78) 创新药推动成药业务收入稳定增长，原料药价格有望企稳 目标价: HK$9.78 当前股价: HK$6.34 • 持续研发投入，有望推动创新药成为公司成药业务增长点； 股价上行/下行空间 +54% 52周最高/最低价 (HK$) 8.26/5.20 • 大宗原料药价格企稳，公司原料药和功能食品业务有望在2024 年贡献收入增长； 市值 (US$mn) 9,690 • 维持买入，将DCF 目标价下调至9.78 港币。 当前发行数量(百万股) 11,954 三个月平均日交易額 33 2023 年业绩略低于预期，研发持续投入推动创新药加速成长：根据公司公告，2023 实现 (US$mn) 流通盘占比 (%) 41 营收/ 归母净利润 314.5 亿元 / 60.7 亿元，同比+1.7%/ -3.6%。2023 年，公司研发费用达 主要股东 (%) 到48.3 亿元，同比增长21.2%，约占公司成药业务收入的18.8%。目前，公司通过八大技 鼎大集团有限公司 10 术平台，聚焦抗肿瘤、精 ...

2024 年3 月28 日 医药: 超配 证券研究报告 / 业绩点评报告 京东健康 (6618 HK, 买入, 目标价: HK$43.57) 毛利率有望持续恢复，服务收入有望保持快速增长 目标价: HK$43.57 当前股价: HK$28.35 • 经营效率提升和存款利息增长导致23 年利润增长超市场预期。 股价上行/下行空间 +54% 52周最高/最低价 (HK$) 64.55/25.25 • 2024 年开始疫情影响逐渐减弱，公司产品收入恢复正常增长。 市值 (US$mn) 11,395 • 维持“买入”评级，下调DCF 目标价至HK$43.57。 当前发行数量(百万股) 3,144 三个月平均日交易額 21 2023 年公司利润超市场预期，毛利率止跌回升：根据公司2023 年报告，京东健康2023 (US$mn) 流通盘占比 (%) 15 年实现营业收入535.3 亿元（同比+14.5%）； 2023 年，公司实现盈利21.4 亿元（同比 主要股东 (%) +459%）；调整后Non-IFRS 净利润达到41.4 亿元（同比+58%）。2023 年，由于产品组 京东健康 68 合变动，公司毛利率上升 1 ...

2024 年3 月21 日 汽车汽配: 超配 证券研究报告 / 业绩点评报告 小鹏汽车 (XPEV US, 持有, 目标价: US$10.20) 4Q23 毛利率环比转正，MONA 将于 3Q24 发布交付 目标价: US$10.20 当前股价: US$9.51 • 受益于规模效益和高毛利车型销售占比提升，4Q23 毛利率环比转正至6.2%。 股价上行/下行空间 +7% • 管理层预计1Q24 交付2.1-2.25 万辆新车，对应总收入58-62 亿元。 52周最高/最低价 (US$) 23.62/7.51 市值 (US$mn) 8,233 • 维持“持有”评级，下调目标价至10.20 美元（对应1.5 倍2024 年P/S）。 当前发行数量(百万股) 866 三个月平均日交易額 119 4Q23 毛利率环比转正，X9 交付利好1Q24 毛利率持续改善。根据小鹏汽车2023 年年报， (US$mn) 公司4Q23 营业收入为130.5 亿元，同环比分别增长153.9%/53.0%，其中汽车业务营收 流通盘占比 (%) 80 122.3 亿元，同/环比分别增长162.3%/55.9%；综合毛利率环比转正至6.2 ...