Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of RMB 27.77, indicating a potential upside of 46% from the current price of RMB 18.96 [1][2][16]. Core Insights - The company is expected to achieve a revenue and net profit CAGR of 13% and 17% respectively from 2023 to 2026, driven by an increase in plasma collection and blood product sales [4]. - The vaccine business has shown significant growth, with a revenue increase of 32% year-on-year in 2023, attributed to higher public demand for flu vaccines [5]. - The company plans to maintain a dividend payout ratio of no less than 30% over the next three years, reflecting a commitment to shareholder returns [4]. Financial Summary - The company reported a revenue of RMB 53.41 billion in 2023, a year-on-year increase of 18%, and a net profit of RMB 14.82 billion, up 38% from the previous year [4][8]. - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2024 is projected at RMB 0.93, with subsequent years showing a gradual increase to RMB 1.29 by 2026 [6][10]. - The gross profit margin improved to 39.3% in 2023, up from 31.5% in 2022, indicating enhanced operational efficiency [8][9]. Revenue Breakdown - Blood products generated revenue of RMB 29.26 billion in 2023, with a gross margin of 54.34% [4][9]. - The vaccine segment achieved revenue of RMB 24.05 billion, with a notable increase in the number of flu vaccine batches released [5][9]. - The company has expanded its plasma collection capabilities, with 32 plasma collection stations operational by the end of 2023, contributing to a 20% increase in plasma collection volume [4][5]. Adjustments and Forecasts - The revenue forecast for 2024 has been adjusted to RMB 6.05 billion, reflecting a 4% increase from previous estimates [13]. - The gross profit forecast for 2024 is now RMB 4.05 billion, up 5% from earlier projections [14]. - The report includes a new forecast for 2026, with expected revenue of RMB 7.67 billion [13][14].

2024 年4 月10 日 消费服务: 中性 证券研究报告 / 公司更新报告 海底捞 (6862 HK, 买入, 目标价: HK$20.51) 颇具确定性且股息优异，理应享受估值溢价 目标价: HK$20.51 当前股价: HK$17.64 • 我们预计 24 年营收/归母净利润分别同比增长11.4%/15.1%至461.8/51.8 亿元； 股价上行/下行空间 +16% 52周最高/最低价 (HK$) 23.95/11.94 • 海底捞作为业绩确定性得到验证且股息率优异的行业龙头，理应享受估值溢价； 市值 (US$mn) 12,555 • 维持买入评级，下调目标价15%至20.51 港元，对应20 倍2024 年P/E。 当前发行数量(百万股) 5,574 三个月平均日交易額 32 中短期颇具确定性：海底捞23 年翻台率改善至3.8 次/天，对应店均消费人次29 万，基 (US$mn) 流通盘占比 (%) 100 本恢复至19 年水平，验证前期所推行的从产品迭代与营销获客，到薪酬结构调整与门店 主要股东 (%) 运营等一系列管理变革行之有效；当前也在继续探索提高老客复购并拓展新客的方法，进 NP Unite ...

s 2024 年3 月13 日 证券研究报告 / 行业更新报告 汽车汽配 1-2 月新能源车销量实现稳健增长，3 月多款新车发布有望持 续刺激需求 • 尽管2 月销量受春节因素影响市有所下滑，但2024 年前两个月整体批发/零售销量同 比增长37.1%/27.7%。 • 前两个月动力+储能电池产销分别同比增长29.5%/26.4%，装机量同比增长32.0%。 • 3 月新能源车市价格战持续升级，新车及降价车型有望刺激3 月需求。 2 月销量受春节假期影响下滑，但1-2 月销量维持稳健增长。根据乘联会数据，2 月狭义 乘用车零售销量实现109.5 万辆，同环比减少21.2%/46.2%； 2 月狭义批发销量实现 129.5 万辆，同环比减少19.9%/38.0%。2 月新能源车零售销量达38.8 万辆，同环比减少 11.6%/41.9%，1-2 月累计渗透率提升至33.4%（1 月累计渗透率为32.6%）。我们认为 2 月整体车市销量同环比减少，主要系受春节因素以及社会面对3 月购车政策有所期待导 致的观望情绪所致。1-2 月累计国内新能源车批发和零售销量分别达到112.9/105.6 万辆， 同比增长37.1 ...

2024 年3 月19 日 高端制造: 超配 证券研究报告 / 业绩点评报告 宁德时代 (300750 CH, 买入, 目标价: RMB236.60) 2023 年分红超预期，全球动力电池龙头地位稳固 目标价: RMB236.60 当前股价: RMB190.96 • 宁德时代宣告221 亿元分红，超市场预期；全年毛利率同比提升2.7 个百分点至 股价上行/下行空间 +24% 22.9%； 52周最高/最低价 (RMB) 251.33/140.40 市值 (US$mn) 116,728 • 2023 年全球市占率达到36.8%；看好2024 年在市场份额和业绩上进一步拉开与同行 当前发行数量(百万股) 4,399 的差距； 三 (U个 S$月 mn平 ) 均日交易額 642 • 维持“买入”评级，目标价调整至236.60 元（对应22 倍2024 年P/E）。 流通盘占比 (%) 88 2023 年盈利大幅提升，分红比例超预期。根据宁德时代2023 年业绩报告，公司4Q23 实 主要股东 (%) 厦门瑞庭投资有限公司 23 现营业收入1,062.4 亿元，同比下滑10.2%，环比增长0.8%；毛利率为25.7% ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for WuXi AppTec (603259 CH) with a target price of RMB 66.31, reflecting a 30% upside potential from the current price of RMB 50.81 [1][14]. Core Insights - WuXi AppTec's 2023 performance met expectations, with revenue and net profit reaching RMB 40.34 billion and RMB 9.61 billion, respectively, representing year-on-year growth of 2.5% and 9.0% [4][11]. - The company has maintained a 30% cash dividend payout ratio, distributing RMB 9.8 per 10 shares in 2023, totaling RMB 2.88 billion [4][11]. - The TIDES new molecule platform within the chemical business segment is expected to drive long-term revenue growth, with a significant increase in orders and revenue [5][11]. Financial Performance Summary - In 2023, WuXi AppTec achieved revenue of RMB 40.34 billion and a net profit of RMB 9.61 billion, with active clients increasing by over 1,200 to more than 6,000 [4][11]. - The company forecasts 2024 revenue to be between RMB 38.3 billion and RMB 40.5 billion, with a non-IFRS net profit margin expected to remain stable at approximately 26.9% [4][11]. - The projected compound annual growth rate (CAGR) for revenue and net profit from 2023 to 2026 is estimated at 7.5% and 7.8%, respectively [4][11]. Business Segment Analysis - The chemical business segment generated RMB 29.17 billion in revenue in 2023, with a 36% increase when excluding COVID-19 related projects [5][11]. - The testing segment reported revenue of RMB 6.54 billion, reflecting a 14% year-on-year increase, while the biological segment achieved RMB 2.55 billion, up 3% [5][11]. - The TIDES platform's revenue grew by 64% year-on-year to RMB 3.41 billion, with a 226% increase in orders [5][11]. Adjustments and Forecasts - The report has adjusted the target price down by 53% from RMB 140.27 to RMB 66.31 due to uncertainties in U.S. policies affecting revenue forecasts for the chemical and testing segments [1][14]. - Revenue forecasts for 2024 and 2025 have been reduced by 24% and 30%, respectively, with net profit and EPS estimates also lowered by 21% and 28% [12][14]. - The updated financial projections for 2024 include revenue of RMB 39.53 billion, net profit of RMB 9.47 billion, and EPS of RMB 3.19 [12][14].

2024 年4 月8 日 医药: 超配 证券研究报告 / 业绩点评报告 泰格医药 (300347 CH, 买入, 目标价: RMB71.03) 新冠相关业务影响逐步出清，加快新兴业务发展 目标价: RMB71.03 当前股价: RMB50.24 • 2023 年业绩低于我们预期，毛利率承压。 股价上行/下行空间 +41% 52周最高/最低价 (RMB) 111.92/36.12 • 新冠相关业务影响逐渐出清；我们预测2023A-26E 营收/ 归母净利润CAGR 分别为 市值 (US$mn) 6,058 21%/16%。 当前发行数量(百万股) 872 • 维持买入评级，下调DCF（WACC： 9.8%）目标价至71.03 元。 三个月平均日交易額 121 (US$mn) 流通盘占比 (%) 72 2023 年业绩低于我们预期：公司发布年报，2023 年实现营收73.84 亿元，同比增长4%； 主要股东 (%) 实现归母净利润20.25 亿元，同比增长1%。2023 年业绩低于我们的预期，主要是因为新 叶小平 20 冠业务及下游市场需求减少。其中4Q23 实现营业收入17.34 亿元，同比增长3%；归母净 香 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Tong Ren Tang (600085 CH) with a target price of RMB 57.60, indicating a potential upside of 40% from the current price of RMB 41.27 [1][2][5]. Core Views - The company is expected to maintain steady growth over the next three years, with projected revenue and net profit CAGR of 11% and 19% respectively from 2023A to 2026E [1][4]. - The target price has been adjusted down by 19% due to lowered earnings forecasts for 2024 and 2025, reflecting a more conservative outlook [5][16]. Financial Performance Summary - In 2023, Tong Ren Tang achieved revenue of RMB 17.861 billion, a year-on-year increase of 16%, and a net profit of RMB 1.669 billion, up 17% [4][9]. - The company's gross margin decreased by 1.5 percentage points to 47.3%, while the net profit margin remained stable at 9.3% [4][9]. - The pharmaceutical manufacturing segment reported revenue of RMB 11.079 billion, growing 13% year-on-year, while the pharmaceutical commerce segment saw revenue of RMB 10.246 billion, a 21% increase [10][20]. Earnings Forecast Adjustments - Revenue forecasts for 2024 and 2025 have been reduced by 4%, with corresponding adjustments to gross profit and net profit estimates, reflecting a 9% decrease in EPS for both years [13][15]. - The updated earnings per share (EPS) estimates are RMB 1.54 for 2024E, RMB 1.81 for 2025E, and RMB 2.05 for 2026E [15][20]. Valuation Metrics - The target price corresponds to a 2024 P/E ratio of 37x, which is above the average P/E of comparable companies at 20x, justifying a premium valuation for the leading OTC traditional Chinese medicine company [5][16][18].

2024 年4 月3 日 医药: 超配 证券研究报告 / 业绩点评报告 云南白药 (000538 CH, 持有, 目标价: RMB54.20) 2023 年营收稳健增长，新业务表现有待观察 目标价: RMB54.20 当前股价: RMB50.74 • 我们预测，2023A-26E 营收/ 归母净利润CAGR 为6%/9%。 股价上行/下行空间 +7% 52周最高/最低价 (RMB) 59.90/44.88 • 2023 年核心产品保持高速增长，健康品净利率承压。 市值 (US$mn) 12,611 • 维持持有评级，下调DCF 目标价至54.20 元。 当前发行数量(百万股) 1,797 三个月平均日交易額 56 2023 年业绩符合预期，分红率超90%：云南白药发布年报，2023 年，实现营收391.11 (US$mn) 流通盘占比 (%) 47 亿元，同比增长7%；实现归母净利润40.94 亿元，同比增长36%。净利润增速大幅超过 主要股东 (%) 营收增速主要原因为2022 年为低基数。其中4Q23 实现营收94.22 亿元，同比减少2%； 云南省国资委 25 实现归母净亏损0.30 亿元，同比减少10 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Shanghai Pharmaceuticals-A with a target price of RMB 22.37, down from the previous target of RMB 23.63, indicating a potential upside of 27% from the current price of RMB 17.62 [1][6][14]. Core Insights - The company experienced steady revenue growth in 2023, achieving revenue of RMB 263 billion, a year-on-year increase of 12%. However, the net profit of RMB 3.768 billion fell short of expectations, declining by 33% year-on-year [1][2]. - The pharmaceutical distribution segment showed strong performance with revenue of RMB 233.76 billion, up 14% year-on-year, while the pharmaceutical manufacturing segment saw a slight decline in revenue [1][2]. - The innovative drug pipeline is entering a harvest phase, with several new drugs in various stages of clinical trials and applications [2][14]. Financial Summary - In 2023, the company reported a net profit of RMB 3.768 billion, down 33% from the previous year, with a corresponding EPS of RMB 1.02, a decrease of 35% [1][8]. - The operating cash flow for 2023 was RMB 5.232 billion, reflecting a 10% increase year-on-year [1][8]. - The report forecasts a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) for revenue and net profit of 11% and 19%, respectively, from 2023 to 2026 [1][2]. Segment Performance - The pharmaceutical distribution segment generated revenue of RMB 233.76 billion, with a gross margin of 6.3%, down 0.27 percentage points year-on-year [1][9]. - The pharmaceutical manufacturing segment reported revenue of RMB 26.26 billion, a decrease of 2% year-on-year, with a gross margin of 58.5% [2][9]. - The retail segment achieved revenue of RMB 9.11 billion, up 10% year-on-year, but with a declining gross margin of 12.0% [9]. Earnings Forecast Adjustments - Due to lower-than-expected performance in 2023, the report has revised down the earnings forecasts for 2024 and 2025, with EPS estimates adjusted to RMB 1.56 and RMB 1.66, representing decreases of 18% and 19% respectively [3][11][13].

2024 年4 月3 日 医药: 超配 证券研究报告 / 业绩点评报告 上海医药-A (601607 CH, 买入, 目标价: RMB22.37) 2023 年营收稳健增长；创新药迎来收获期 目标价: RMB22.37 当前股价: RMB17.62 • 2023 年营收稳健增长，2023 年股息率为2.1%（最近三年平均为2.4%）。 股价上行/下行空间 +27% 52周最高/最低价 (RMB) 23.98/15.36 • 医药商业：CSO、疫苗、器械大健康等业务为未来增长点；医药工业：创新药管线进 市值 (US$mn) 11,031 入收获期。 当前发行数量(百万股) 2,842 • 维持买入评级，SOTP 目标价下调至22.37 元。 三个月平均日交易額 31 (US$mn) 流通盘占比 (%) 68 2023 年营收稳健增长，净利润低于我们预测：公司发布年报，2023 年实现营收2,630 亿 主要股东 (%) 元，同比增长12%；归母净利润37.68 亿元，同比下降33%；扣非归母净利润35.96 亿 香港中央结算 19 元，同比下降16%。其中4Q23 实现营收628 亿元，同比9%；归母净亏损28 ...