短期广告仍承压，仍需关注 AIGC 对搜索及商业化改造进程 百度核心业务 2 季度收入增长仍承压。1）我们预计广告收入同比降 3%至 190亿元，较此前下调5%，主要因用户侧AI搜索改造影响传统广告点击， 及部分行业如地产、汽车等广告主需求较为疲软。公司预期 AI 生成搜索 内容占比将进一步提升（1 季度 11%），预计对广告商业化负面影响将持 续至下半年。2）云业务基本维持预期，预计收入 51 亿元，同比增 14%， 企业对 AI 大模型的需求及 API 调用随着使用量上升加速起量推动 AI 相关高 质量收入增长。利润层面，虽广告收入低于此前预期，但公司持续关注成 本控制及运营效率优化，维持核心经调整营运利润率预测 25%。 百度披露截至 1 季度，萝卜快跑在 10+个城市运营，季度单量 83 万（日单 9000+）。运营成本下降取决于远程安全员及新款车型 RT6 的量产上线： 1）武汉无人驾驶单量比例持续提升，2季度/4月为55%+/70%+，预计未来 几个季度达 100%。2）受武汉测试区域的扩大拉动，公司预计 2024 年内 在武汉投放 1000 辆 RT6（单车 20.46 万元），将有效优化运营成 ...

交银国际证券有限公司及/或其集团公司现持有东方证券股份有限公司、光大证券股份有限公司及Interra Acquisition Corp的已发行股本逾1%。 本报告之收取者透过接受本报告 (包括任何有关的附件)，表示幷保证其根据下述的条件下有权获得本报告，幷且同意受此中包含的限制条件 所约束。任何没有遵循这些限制的情况可能构成法律之违反。 本报告为高度机密，幷且只以非公开形式供交银国际证券的客户阅览。本报告只在基于能被保密的情况下提供给阁下。未经交银国际证券事 先以书面同意，本报告及其中所载的资料不得以任何形式(i)复制、复印或储存，或者(ii) 直接或者间接分发或者转交予任何其它人作任何用 途。 交银国际证券、其联属公司、关联公司、董事、关联方及/或雇员，可能持有在本报告内所述或有关公司之证券、幷可能不时进行买卖、或 对其有兴趣。此外，交银国际证券、其联属公司及关联公司可能与本报告内所述或有关的公司不时进行业务往来，或为其担任市场庄家，或 被委任替其证券进行承销，或可能以委托人身份替客户买入或沽售其证劵，或可能为其担当或争取担当幷提供投资银行、顾问、包销、融资 或其它服务，或替其从其它实体寻求同类型之服务。投 ...

交银国际研究 行业更新 2024 年 7 月 16 日 电池行业月报 电池出口增长强劲,多款快充/超充电池新品发布;关注行业规范落地执行情况 下游需求带动动力电池装车量,磷酸铁锂装车占比进一步提升。产量:6 月,我国电池总产量为 84.5 GWh,同比增长 28.7%;1-6 月,累计产量为 430.0 GWh,同比增长36.9%。销量:6 月,我国电池销量为92.2 GWh,同 比增长 51.2%。1-6 月,电池累计销量为 402.6 GWh,同比增长 40.3%。其 中,动力电池当月销量为 69.3 GWh,同比增长 37.0%;1-6 月累计销量为 318.1 GWh,同比增长 26.6%。装车量:6 月,我国动力电池装车量 42.8 GWh,同比增长 30.2%。其中三元电池/磷酸铁锂电池装车量分别为 11.1 GWh/31.7 GWh,分别同比增长 10.2%/39.3%,磷酸铁锂占比总装车量 74.0%。1-6 月,我国动力电池累计装车量 203.3 GWh,同比增长 33.7%。 6 月电池出口整体表现强劲。6 月,我国电池合计出口 18.4 GWh,同比增 长 67.8%,合计出口占当月销量 ...

交银国际研究 行业更新 2024 年 7 月 15 日 行业与大盘一年趋势图 7/23 11/23 3/24 7/24 -20% -15% -10% -5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 行业表现 MSCI中国指数 资料来源: FactSet 6 月电商月报:大促错期,2 季度行业中个位数增长 估值概要 赵丽, CFA zhao.li@bocomgroup.com (86) 10 8800 9788-8054 蔡涵 hanna.cai@bocomgroup.com (86) 10 8800 9788-8041 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |---------------------------------------------|-------------------------------------------------------|----------------------------------|---------------------------------|--------------- ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Bilibili (BILI US) with a target price of $20.00, indicating a potential upside of 19.7% from the current closing price of $16.71 [1][38]. Core Insights - The report slightly raises the revenue forecast for Q2 2024 by 1% to RMB 6.1 billion, representing a year-on-year growth of 16%, primarily driven by better-than-expected performance from new games [1]. - The report anticipates a gross margin expansion of 6% year-on-year and 1% quarter-on-quarter to 29%, attributed to economies of scale and an increased proportion of advertising revenue [1]. - The adjusted net loss for the company is expected to narrow to RMB 330 million, a 66% reduction compared to the same period last year [1]. Revenue Forecast - Total revenue for 2024 is projected at RMB 26.6 billion, reflecting an 18% year-on-year increase, with mobile gaming revenue expected to reach RMB 5.4 billion, a 34% increase [13][36]. - The report highlights that the game "Sanmou" is expected to contribute significantly to revenue, accounting for 26% and 43% of game income in 2024 and 2025, respectively [36]. Financial Performance - The report outlines a forecast for total revenue growth from RMB 22.5 billion in 2023 to RMB 30.2 billion in 2025, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 13.6% [13]. - The adjusted net profit is expected to improve from a loss of RMB 3.4 billion in 2023 to a profit of RMB 1.1 billion in 2025 [13]. Market Position and Strategy - The report emphasizes the company's focus on enhancing its advertising infrastructure and expanding its game portfolio, particularly in traditional genres like RPGs and card games [12]. - The advertising revenue from key sectors such as gaming, digital appliances, and online education has shown significant growth, with increases of 30%, 50%, and 100%, respectively [12].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for TAL Education Group (TAL US) with a target price of USD 15.50, representing a potential upside of 47.3% from the current price of USD 10.52 [1][10]. Core Insights - The report highlights TAL's strong revenue growth, projecting a 42% year-over-year increase in Q1 FY2025, with expected revenues of USD 390 million [2][3]. - The company is expanding its teaching points significantly, with an estimated 14% quarter-over-quarter increase and a year-over-year growth of approximately 65-70% [2][3]. - TAL's hardware sales, particularly the new learning machine launched in May, are expected to drive high growth, with sales estimates of 70,000 to 80,000 units for the quarter [2][3]. Financial Overview - Revenue projections for TAL are as follows: USD 1,490 million for FY2024, USD 2,036 million for FY2025, and USD 2,514 million for FY2026, with respective growth rates of 46.2%, 36.6%, and 23.5% [4][11]. - The adjusted net profit is expected to reach USD 142 million in FY2025, with a significant increase of 67% year-over-year [3][4]. - The report estimates a non-GAAP net profit of USD 85 million for FY2024 and USD 142 million for FY2025, indicating a recovery from previous losses [11]. Valuation Metrics - The current price corresponds to a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 47 times for FY2025, with a price/earnings growth (PEG) ratio of 0.7, suggesting an attractive valuation [3][4]. - The report indicates a projected gross margin of 56.3% for FY2025, reflecting operational efficiency improvements [11].

量子技术作为新质生产力的重要代表之 或在计算、通信和测量领域为下游 降本增效,提高生产效率 量子技术代表先进生产力的发展方向,是各国长期投资发展的重要领域。近年 ess 全球量子技术集中在量子计算领域,2023年,我国在量子计算领域融资规 来, 模占全球的8.1%。但我们认为,我国量子产业未来的规模或远大于当前的融资 投入。我们预测2030年我国在量子产业中的总体市场份额或可达15%。 量子技术应用广泛,市场潜力亟待开发,细分领域中,我们认为量子计算市场 潜力最为可观。 到2030年市场规模或可 达到 2,391亿美元 , 对 应 2023-30年65%复合 年增长率,其中计算/通 信 / 测 量 分 别 为 2,155 /197/38.Z亿美元。 建议关注国盾量子 态源量至等中国领 先企业,以及lonQ, IBM、 谷歌等海外 大型企业量子计算 的进展。 分析师 | 玉犬卫 董理 & es 交银国际研究 行业剖析 科技行业 量子技术:新质生产力的下一个突破口? 量子技术作为新质生产力的重要代表之一,或在计算、通信和测量领域为 下游降本增效,提高生产效率。量子技术利用量子叠加态和量子纠缠等不 同量子技术实现高 ...

Investment Rating - The report gives a "Buy" rating for Yadea (1585 HK) and Ninebot (689009 CH), while providing a "Neutral" rating for Greendot (2451 HK) [4][6]. Core Insights - The electric two-wheeler industry in China is experiencing new developments and opportunities driven by three main factors: the unfulfilled demand for replacement due to new national standards, the favorable old-for-new policies, and the growth in both consumer (To C) and business (To B) demand. The forecasted sales for electric two-wheelers in China from 2024 to 2027 are 53.6 million, 55.2 million, 58 million, and 61.5 million units respectively [2][3][28]. - The global demand for electric two-wheelers is increasing, with a projected compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 25.6% from 2023 to 2027 for overseas markets. Chinese manufacturers have advantages in supply chain and cost, with export sales expected to grow at an 11.5% CAGR [3][33][38]. Summary by Sections Chinese Market - The industry is driven by three main factors: 1. The demand for replacement due to new national standards is not fully released, with over 40% of vehicles needing replacement [8][13]. 2. The old-for-new policy is beneficial, with a significant existing vehicle base of nearly 400 million units, potentially increasing the replacement rate by 2-3 percentage points [16]. 3. New demand from both consumer and business sectors is contributing to sales growth, with electric two-wheelers serving as a complement to four-wheel vehicles in congested urban areas [18][21]. Overseas Market - The global demand for electric two-wheelers is steadily increasing, with a projected CAGR of 25.6% from 2023 to 2027. By 2027, overseas markets are expected to account for 33% of global sales [33][38]. - China, as the largest manufacturer, benefits from production scale, supply chain advantages, and diverse product offerings, with exports expected to grow at an 11.5% CAGR from 2022 to 2027 [38][43]. Industry Integration - The report highlights that industry consolidation is timely, favoring leading companies with competitive advantages. Future competition will focus on product differentiation and high-quality profit growth [4][6]. - The report emphasizes the importance of companies that maintain sales growth, prioritize product quality, and invest in research and development [4][6]. Company Analysis - Yadea (1585 HK) is expected to continue increasing its market share, with growth anticipated in both domestic and overseas markets [6]. - Ninebot (689009 CH) is positioned for growth through multiple business drivers, including electric two-wheelers and robotics [6]. - Greendot (2451 HK) is expanding its store capacity but needs to improve profitability [6].

Industry Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly mention an overall industry investment rating for the technology sector [1][2][3][4][5][6][7][8][9][10][11][12] Core Views - Huawei's HDC 2024 developer conference showcased significant advancements in AI and operating systems, particularly with the launch of HarmonyOS NEXT and PanGu Model 5.0 [1] - HarmonyOS NEXT represents a major shift as it no longer supports Android apps, focusing instead on a unified system across devices with performance improvements of 30% and a goal of 20% annual performance enhancement [1] - PanGu Model 5.0 introduces three major upgrades: full-series, multi-modal, and strong-thinking capabilities, with applications across 30+ industries and 400+ scenarios [2] - Harmony Intelligence, combining on-device and cloud-based AI, enhances user experience and system integration, similar to Apple's approach with Apple Intelligence [2] - Huawei's ecosystem, combining HarmonyOS and PanGu Model 5.0, is expected to drive further growth in the domestic AI and consumer electronics sectors [2] Key Highlights by Section HarmonyOS NEXT - HarmonyOS NEXT adopts a vertical integration architecture and no longer supports Android apps, focusing on a unified system across devices [1] - Performance improvements include a 10.7% boost over Linux kernel and a 30% overall system performance increase, with a target of 20% annual improvement [1] - Over 1,500 of the top 5,000 apps have been adapted for HarmonyOS NEXT, covering 99.9% of user usage time [1] - HarmonyOS has achieved a 17% market share in China, surpassing iOS's 16% [1] - Beta testing for HarmonyOS NEXT has begun, with a commercial release planned for Q4 2024 [1] PanGu Model 5.0 - PanGu Model 5.0 features full-series models ranging from billions to trillions of parameters, suitable for various business scenarios [2] - Multi-modal capabilities include support for 10K ultra-high resolution in image and video recognition, and the use of STCG technology for generating physically accurate multi-modal content [2] - Strong-thinking capabilities combine chain-of-thought techniques with strategic search, enhancing mathematical and complex task planning abilities [2] - The model has been applied in over 30 industries and 400 scenarios, including pharmaceuticals, robotics, and autonomous driving [2] Harmony Intelligence - Harmony Intelligence integrates AI deeply into the system using a hybrid on-device and cloud-based approach [2] - The on-device component combines personal data, user intent, UI, and AI subsystems, while the cloud leverages PanGu Model 5.0 and third-party models [2] - The upgraded XiaoYi assistant, based on PanGu Model 5.0, has improved memory and reasoning capabilities by 23% and 90%, respectively [2] - Huawei's ecosystem, combining HarmonyOS and PanGu Model 5.0, strengthens the integration of AI at both the architecture and system levels [2] Market and Industry Impact - Huawei's advancements are expected to drive growth in the domestic AI and consumer electronics sectors, particularly in smartphone and semiconductor industries [1][2] - Companies like Will Semiconductor, BYD Electronics, and GoerTek are highlighted as short-term beneficiaries, while enterprise and application software firms like iSoftStone and Thundersoft are seen as long-term opportunities [1]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the banking industry or the specific company discussed [1]. Core Insights - The report highlights concerns regarding asset-liability mismatch issues raised by the Japan Agricultural and Forestry Central Bank (Norinchukin), which plans to sell over 10 trillion yen (approximately 63 billion USD) in government bonds and expects a loss of 1.5 trillion yen by the end of the fiscal year 2025 [1][2]. - The bank's asset structure shows that securities account for 44%, while loans and discounted bills only account for 18%. The liabilities are primarily sourced from member bank deposits, which constitute 68% of the total [2]. - The report indicates that the bank's bond investments have been generating continuous losses since the Federal Reserve's interest rate hikes began in 2022, with unrealized losses amounting to 2.2 trillion yen, representing 7% of the bond investment amounting to 31.3 trillion yen [2]. - The bank aims to adjust its investment portfolio by reducing its holdings in foreign sovereign bonds and increasing exposure to corporate and personal credit risks, including equities, corporate bonds, and securitized products [2]. Summary by Sections Section 1: Financial Performance - Norinchukin plans to sell over 10 trillion yen in bonds and expects a loss of 1.5 trillion yen for the fiscal year ending March 2025, which is an increase of 1 trillion yen from previous expectations [1]. - The bank's bond investments have resulted in significant unrealized losses due to the rising interest rates, with a total unrealized loss of 2.2 trillion yen reported for the fiscal year 2023 [2]. Section 2: Asset and Liability Structure - As of March 2024, the asset structure is heavily weighted towards securities (44%) and bonds (56%), with foreign bonds making up 75% of the bond portfolio [2][3]. - The liabilities are primarily composed of member bank deposits (68%) and repurchase agreements (14%) [2]. Section 3: Strategic Adjustments - The bank intends to sell U.S. government bonds to improve profitability and adjust its investment strategy, focusing on increasing allocations to corporate credit and equities [2]. - The report emphasizes the need for banks to closely monitor interest rate trends to manage asset-liability mismatch risks effectively [2].