交银国际研究 每日晨报 2025 年 10 月 8 日 今日焦点 | 新世界发展 | | 17 HK | | --- | --- | --- | | 合约销售稳健，再融资落地助力财务优化；上 | | 评级: 买入 | | 调目标价 | | | | 收盘价: 港元 8.21 | 目标价: 港元 9.70↑ | 潜在涨幅: +18.1% | | 谢骐聪, CFA, FRM | philip.tse@bocomgroup.com | | 2025 财年业绩大致符合预期，收入为 276.8 亿港元，同比降 23%。扣除 拨备及其他一次性非现金影响，来自持续经营业务之核心盈利，核心经 营利润为 60.2 亿港元，同比下降 13%，我们估算核心利润约为 5 亿港 元，稍低于预期。 2025 年公司香港实现应占合约销售约 110 亿港元，并在中国内地物业取 得合约销售为人民币 140 亿元。公司设定 2026 财年全年销售目标为 270 亿港元，同比增加 4%。 2025 财年净负债约为 1,201 亿港元，同比减少约 45 亿港元，同时短期 债务减少至约 66 亿港元。公司于 2025 年 6 月成功完成 882 亿港元 ...

Core Insights - The report highlights an increasing investment trend from both domestic and foreign investors in service-oriented companies and innovative pharmaceutical firms, particularly in the context of anticipated interest rate cuts in Q4 [1][2] - The Hang Seng Healthcare Index rose by 2.2% this week, underperforming the broader market, with CXO, biopharmaceuticals, and traditional Chinese medicine sectors showing better performance [1] Investment Insights - The upcoming ESMO conference in mid-October is expected to provide significant data releases from companies such as Kangfang Biotech, Kelun-Biotech, and Rongchang Biotech, which are recommended for close monitoring [2] - With an increase in industry catalysts starting in October, the market is anticipated to rebound, focusing on the following segments: 1. Innovative drugs: Companies like 3SBio and Eucure Biopharma have rich short-term catalysts, and their valuations do not yet reflect the value of core blockbuster products. Companies like Sinopharm and Legend Biotech are considered undervalued with clear long-term growth logic [2] 2. CXO: Leading companies in this segment are expected to benefit from high downstream demand and marginal improvements in financing conditions, such as WuXi AppTec [2]

Group 1: Company Performance - The company reported a 7% year-on-year increase in attributable operating profit to HKD 4.466 billion, exceeding previous forecasts [1] - Adjusted EBITDA rose by 1% year-on-year to HKD 7.316 billion, driven primarily by significant growth in the financial services segment [1] - The company proposed a final dividend of HKD 0.35 per share, bringing the total dividend for the fiscal year 2025 to HKD 0.95 per share, alongside a stock dividend of 1 share for every 10 shares held [1] Group 2: Financial Services Segment - The financial services segment's AOP increased by 29% year-on-year to HKD 1.242 billion, with new business value profit margin improving by 3 percentage points to 30% [2] - The embedded value rose by 19% year-on-year to HKD 25.3 billion, indicating strong growth potential [2] - The logistics segment experienced a 3% increase in AOP, with China Railway International Container Transport Co., Ltd. contributing 23% to this growth [2] Group 3: Market Outlook - The company is currently undervalued, with an attractive dividend yield forecasted to reach 8.4% and 8.8% for the fiscal years 2026 and 2027, respectively [2] - The target price for the company is maintained at HKD 9.42, reflecting a buy rating [2]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Chow Tai Fook Enterprises (659 HK) with a target price of HKD 9.42, indicating an expected upside of 11.7% from the current price of HKD 8.43 [1][4]. Core Insights - The overall performance of Chow Tai Fook Enterprises exceeded expectations, with a year-on-year increase in attributable operating profit (AOP) of 7% to HKD 4.466 billion, surpassing the previous forecast of HKD 4.36 billion [1]. - The financial services segment remains a key growth driver, with AOP increasing by 29% to HKD 1.242 billion, supported by a 13% growth in the marginal balance of Chow Tai Fook Life Insurance contracts [1][2]. - The company plans to distribute a final dividend of HKD 0.35 per share, maintaining the total dividend for the fiscal year at HKD 0.95 per share, alongside a stock dividend to enhance liquidity [1]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Total revenue for FY2025 decreased by 8.1% to HKD 24.285 billion, with notable declines in logistics and construction segments [2]. - The insurance segment saw a revenue increase of 18.2% to HKD 4.081 billion, while the logistics segment's revenue fell by 11.7% to HKD 142.1 million [2]. - Adjusted EBITDA for FY2025 rose by 1% to HKD 7.316 billion, reflecting stable operational performance despite revenue declines in certain segments [2]. Segment Analysis - The financial services segment is highlighted as a future growth area, with significant investments in technology-driven brokerage and asset management firms to create a comprehensive wealth management ecosystem [1]. - The logistics segment experienced a 3% increase in AOP, driven by strong growth from China Railway International Container Transport Co., which contributed 23% to the segment's performance [1]. - The construction segment's performance stabilized post-acquisition, with a contract order book reaching HKD 58.5 billion, focusing on government projects [1]. Dividend Policy - Chow Tai Fook Enterprises aims to maintain a progressive dividend policy, ensuring long-term returns for shareholders, with a projected dividend yield of 8.4% to 8.8% for FY2026-27 [1].

Core Insights - The report highlights that the impact of Trump's 100% tariff on imported innovative drugs may be limited, suggesting a buying opportunity during market dips [1][2] - The Chinese innovative drug industry is expected to be minimally affected, as many companies have established production capabilities in the U.S. or have outsourced to local contract manufacturing organizations (CMOs) [2] - The report recommends focusing on specific companies with significant data releases at the upcoming ESMO conference and monitoring the results of healthcare negotiations [2] Industry Overview - The U.S. tariff policy primarily targets multinational pharmaceutical companies that rely on overseas production, pushing them to establish manufacturing facilities in the U.S. [2] - The impact on the CXO sector is expected to be limited in the short term, as the majority of exports consist of raw materials and biological drug solutions, with a low proportion of finished drug exports [2] - The report indicates that the overall influence of the tariff on the Chinese pharmaceutical supply chain is manageable, contrasting with previous more aggressive statements from the Trump administration [2] Investment Recommendations - The report identifies potential catalysts for the pharmaceutical sector in Q4 2025, including the ESMO conference and the upcoming healthcare negotiation results [2] - Recommended companies for investment include Innovent Biologics, Kelun-Biotech, and Rongchang Biologics, which are expected to have significant data releases [2] - Long-term investment opportunities are suggested in innovative drug companies like 3SBio and Eucure Biopharma, which are undervalued and have clear growth trajectories [2]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for several companies in the pharmaceutical sector, indicating an expectation of total returns exceeding the relevant industry over the next 12 months [4]. Core Insights - The recent announcement by President Trump regarding a 100% tariff on imported branded and patented drugs is expected to have a limited impact on China's innovative drug industry, as most Chinese companies either have production facilities in the U.S. or utilize local contract manufacturing organizations (CMOs) [3]. - The report suggests that investors should strategically position themselves in the innovative drug supply chain during market fluctuations, with several catalysts expected in Q4 2025, including the ESMO conference and upcoming healthcare negotiations [3]. - Long-term investment opportunities are highlighted in specific segments such as innovative drugs and CXO services, with recommendations for companies like Sanofi, Legend Biotech, and WuXi AppTec [3]. Summary by Sections Section: Impact of Tariffs - The 100% tariff on imported drugs is not expected to significantly affect Chinese innovative drug companies, as they have limited direct exports to the U.S. and often rely on local production [3]. - CXO companies primarily export raw materials and biological drugs, which are not impacted by the new tariffs, indicating a controlled overall impact on the Chinese pharmaceutical supply chain [3]. Section: Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on companies with rich short-term catalysts, such as Kangfang Biotech and Rongchang Biotech, ahead of significant data releases and healthcare negotiations [3]. - Specific companies are highlighted for their growth potential, including Sanofi and Legend Biotech, which are considered undervalued with clear long-term growth logic [3]. Section: Company Ratings - A list of companies with their respective ratings and target prices is provided, showing a generally positive outlook for the majority of the companies covered [4]. - Notable companies with "Buy" ratings include Sanofi (target price of 35.00), Legend Biotech (target price of 74.00), and WuXi AppTec (target price of 70.00) [4].

Core Insights - The report highlights the acceleration of adjustments in medical insurance and commercial insurance directories, suggesting a strategic approach to invest in undervalued quality stocks during market corrections [1][2] - The innovation drug sector is expected to benefit from a gradually forming insurance guarantee model, which may alleviate challenges related to hospital admissions and reimbursement payments [2] Market Review - The Hang Seng Healthcare Index fell by 1.4% this week, underperforming the broader market, while sectors such as internet medicine, CXO, and traditional Chinese medicine showed relatively better performance [1] - Domestic institutional investors maintained stable holdings through the Hong Kong Stock Connect, while foreign investors slightly reduced their positions since mid-year, although both continue to increase their investments in innovative pharmaceutical companies [1] Investment Recommendations - Focus on companies with significant data releases at the upcoming ESMO conference, such as Kangfang Biologics, Kelun-Biotech, and Rongchang Biologics [2] - Suggested investment strategies include gradually positioning in the innovative drug sector during market pullbacks, with specific recommendations for: 1) Innovative drugs: Companies like 3SBio and Eucure Biopharma have rich short-term catalysts and their valuations do not yet reflect the core value of major products [2] 2) CXO: Leaders in this segment are expected to benefit from high downstream demand and improving financing conditions, such as WuXi AppTec [2]

Industry Rating - The report rates the pharmaceutical industry as "Leading" [1] Core Insights - The adjustment of medical insurance and commercial insurance directories is accelerating, suggesting a favorable environment for undervalued quality stocks during market corrections [4][5] - The report emphasizes the importance of timing and stock selection in the current market, particularly after a broad rally in innovative drug stocks [4] - The upcoming ESMO conference in October is highlighted as a key event, with specific companies recommended for attention due to potential significant data releases [4] Summary by Sections Market Performance - The Hang Seng Index fell by 1.1% and the Hang Seng Healthcare Index decreased by 1.4% during the week of September 16-23, 2025, ranking 5th among 12 industry indices [4][6] - Sub-industry performance varied, with Internet medicine showing a slight increase of 0.9%, while sectors like medical devices and hospitals saw declines of 5.2% and 8.2%, respectively [4][6] Valuation Overview - The report provides a detailed valuation summary for various companies, with notable price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios for the pharmaceutical sector, such as 31.0x for prescription drugs and 14.1x for biopharmaceuticals [15] - The average P/E ratio across the sector is reported at 57.0, indicating a diverse valuation landscape [3] Institutional Holdings - As of September 23, 2025, domestic institutional holdings through Hong Kong Stock Connect remained stable at 22.2%, while foreign holdings slightly decreased to 38.7% [34][38] - The report notes a trend of increased foreign investment in innovative drug companies, with specific companies like InnoCare and Legend Biotech seeing significant increases in holdings [38][40] Regulatory Developments - The report discusses the recent adjustments to the national basic medical insurance directory and commercial insurance innovative drug directory, with a low approval rate for submitted drugs [5] - The 11th batch of national drug procurement has been announced, with new rules aimed at stabilizing clinical practices and ensuring quality [5]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Alibaba (BABA US) is "Buy" with a target price of $200.00, indicating a potential upside of 13.4% from the current price of $176.44 [1][2][11]. Core Insights - Alibaba is actively expanding its AI capabilities, showcasing a comprehensive AI stack at the Yunqi Conference, including flagship models and high-density AI servers. The company is also investing heavily in AI infrastructure, with plans to enhance its global data center energy efficiency by tenfold by 2032 [7]. - The report highlights Alibaba's strong revenue growth projections, with expected revenues of RMB 996,347 million in 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 5.9% [6][12]. - The company's net profit is projected to be RMB 158,122 million in 2025, with a slight increase from the previous year, and a Non-GAAP net profit of RMB 158,122 million is also anticipated [6][12]. Financial Overview - The market capitalization of Alibaba is approximately $395.48 billion, with a year-to-date stock price increase of 108.09% [4]. - The report provides a detailed financial outlook, including projected revenues and net profits for the next five years, indicating a steady growth trajectory [6][12]. - Key financial metrics include a projected P/E ratio of 19.2 for 2025 and an expected EPS of RMB 65.30 [6][12]. Stock Performance - Alibaba's stock has shown significant performance, with a 51% increase in price this month alone, reflecting strong market sentiment [7]. - The stock's 52-week high is $176.44, while the low is $80.53, indicating substantial volatility and recovery in its stock price [4]. Valuation and Outlook - The report suggests that Alibaba's valuation is attractive, with a target price adjustment based on a sum-of-the-parts (SOTP) analysis, reflecting the company's diverse business segments [7]. - The anticipated growth in AI applications and infrastructure is expected to drive further stock appreciation and market confidence in Alibaba's long-term prospects [7].

Core Insights - Alibaba's Cloud Summit showcased advancements in AI technology, including the release of multiple models such as Qwen3-Max, Qwen3-VL, and Qwen3-Omni, indicating a strong focus on AI capabilities and ecosystem development [1][2] - Alibaba's CEO predicts that global AI investments will exceed $4 trillion over the next five years, with large models expected to become the next generation of operating systems [1] - The target price for Alibaba has been raised to $200, reflecting a potential upside of 13.4% from the current closing price of $176.44 [1][2] Company and Industry Summary - Alibaba is actively advancing its AI infrastructure with an investment plan of 380 billion yuan, aiming for a tenfold increase in global data center energy efficiency by 2032 [2] - The company has established a comprehensive stack in chip computing, applications, and services, which is expected to accelerate the implementation of AI applications in China [2] - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Alibaba, indicating confidence in its growth potential within the AI sector [2]