交银国际研究 宏观策略 2025 年 6 月 9 日 全球宏观 从日债到美债：全球期限溢价的涟漪 2025年5月中旬以来，日本超长期国债收益率快速攀升，引发全球债券市场震 荡。作为全球第二大债券市场，日本超长债收益率的快速上涨，也折射出全球 债券市场在财政扩张与央行政策分化背景下的结构性变化。在关税贸易政策不 确定性持续的当下，市场对各国财政政策进一步宽松的预期正推高风险溢价， 或预示着全球长端利率重估周期的来临。 此报告最后部分的分析师披露、商业关系披露和免责声明为报告的一部分，必须阅读。 下载本公司之研究报告，可从彭博信息：BOCM 或 https://research.bocomgroup.com 李少金 Evan.Li@bocomgroup.com (852) 3766 1849 日本超长债利率上涨的双重驱动——货币政策正常化与供需失衡。1）本 轮超长债利率上行的根本驱动力，是日本央行渐进式、滞后性的货币政策 正常化。日本货币正常化为超长期国债利率重新定价创造了条件，体现了 "价格发现"过程的回归。2）同时，供需结构性失衡成市场震荡的核心 机制：供给端，日本央行这一"超级买家"的缺位，使原本依赖央行托 ...

交银国际研究 每日晨报 2025 年 6 月 9 日 今日焦点 | 新能源行业 | 2025 | 下半年展望：不确定性下机遇仍存，把握 | 评级: | 领先 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 分红的稳定性 | 郑民康 | wallace.cheng@bocomgroup.com | | | 板块顺序：运营商>光伏玻璃>多晶硅>逆变器>电池片：首选中国电力（ 2380 HK/买入），亦看好股息政策在子行业中最优的京能清洁能源（579 HK/买入）。光伏板块建议 1Q25 盈利改善明显的福莱特（6865 HK/买入 ）。及协鑫科技（3800 HK/买入） 新能源运营商: 我们认为新能源运营商的中长期策略应有明显转变，股息 率及盈利稳利性是投资者短期较关心的因素。 光伏：我们预计产能出清仍将主要通过市场化手段完成， 2026 年行业有 望出现实质性反转。光伏玻璃板块目前盈利有明显好转，多晶硅板块颗 粒硅盈利优势凸显并有望继续扩大。 风电：我们预计风电 2025 年新增装机将同比增长 23%。唯过去装机年度 过后出现调整的可能性较高，同时亦取决于新政策后增量项目电价水平 再作考量 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to multiple companies in the renewable energy sector, including China Power (2380 HK), China Resources Power (836 HK), and GCL-Poly Energy (3800 HK) [2][4]. Core Insights - The renewable energy operators face both challenges and opportunities under new policies, with dividend levels showing relative certainty. The introduction of Document No. 136 in 2025 is expected to shift the long-term strategies of operators significantly [1][7]. - The solar photovoltaic (PV) industry is anticipated to experience a substantial capacity clearance, with stock prices declining, presenting opportunities for leading companies. The demand for solar PV is expected to remain strong in 2024, but a short-term adjustment in demand is likely following the end of the rush to install projects [17][20]. - Wind power installations are projected to grow by 23% in 2025, reaching 98 GW, but a slight decline is expected in 2026 due to adjustments in pricing mechanisms [4][6]. Summary by Sections Operators - Operators are expected to focus on maintaining dividend rates, with an average dividend yield of around 6% across the covered companies. The report highlights that operators with strong technical capabilities and scale advantages will be better positioned to adapt to market changes [11][14]. - The new pricing mechanism will require operators to optimize project management and respond to fluctuations in electricity prices [7][8]. Photovoltaic Industry - The report predicts that the global demand for solar PV will slow down in 2025, with a projected installation of approximately 270 GW in China, a 3% decrease year-on-year [22]. - The solar glass sector is expected to see a rebound in prices after a strong recovery, but future supply may decrease due to regulatory requirements for capacity replacement [37][38]. Wind Power - The report anticipates that the wind power sector will see a significant increase in new installations in 2025, but a potential decline in 2026 due to the new pricing mechanism and market adjustments [4][6]. - The profitability of wind turbine manufacturers will depend on their ability to deliver projects in offshore and international markets [4][6]. Financial Metrics - The report provides detailed financial metrics for various companies, including earnings per share, price-to-earnings ratios, and dividend yields, indicating a generally favorable outlook for operators in the renewable energy sector [2][4][14].

Investment Rating - The report upgrades the investment rating of the company to "Buy" based on better-than-expected overseas business growth and effective marketing cost control [2]. Core Insights - The company is expected to see a revenue inflection point in the second half of the year, driven by accelerated overseas growth, leading to a 5% increase in the 2025 revenue forecast and a 13% increase in adjusted net profit forecast to 1.4 billion RMB [2]. - The target price has been raised to $8.30 from $7.20, reflecting a potential upside of 17.6% [1][2]. - The company's market capitalization is approximately $1.2 billion, which is below its net cash of $1.4 billion as of Q1 2024, indicating limited downside risk for the stock price [2]. Financial Performance Summary - For Q1 2025, the company reported revenues of 2.52 billion RMB, a slight year-over-year decline of 2%, but exceeding market expectations by 4% [6]. - The adjusted net profit for Q1 2025 was 400 million RMB, significantly better than the market expectation of 270 million RMB, aided by channel optimization and improved marketing efficiency [6]. - The overseas revenue grew by 72% year-over-year, contributing to 16% of total revenue, driven by the rapid growth of new products [6][12]. Revenue and Profit Forecasts - The updated revenue forecasts for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 10.485 billion RMB, 10.724 billion RMB, and 11.090 billion RMB, respectively, reflecting a growth of 5% and 6% compared to previous estimates [5][20]. - The adjusted net profit forecasts for the same years are 1.404 billion RMB, 1.427 billion RMB, and 1.456 billion RMB, indicating a steady growth trajectory [5][20]. Market Position and Valuation - The company’s stock price has shown a year-to-date decline of 8.43%, with a 52-week high of $8.15 and a low of $5.27 [4]. - The report highlights that the company maintains a stable shareholder return policy, further supporting its valuation [2].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, Sihuan Pharmaceutical (02096), with a target price of HKD 14.3, and continues to recommend it as a key focus in the industry [1]. Core Insights - The report has raised the profit forecast for the company for the years 2025-2027 by 6-11% and is optimistic about the potential for more overseas transactions in the short term, particularly focusing on targets such as CDH6 and CDH17, which have recently garnered significant attention [1]. - At the ASCO 2025 conference, the company's oncology pipeline showcased 18 research studies. Key studies to watch include: 1. The final analysis of overall survival (OS) in a Phase III study of Suviscita monoclonal antibody for platinum-resistant ovarian cancer, with median OS of 15.3 months for the treatment group compared to 14 months for the control group, with approval expected within the year [1]. 2. The results of an Ib phase study on SIM0270 combined with Palbociclib for second-line or higher ER+/HER2- breast cancer, showing an overall response rate (ORR) of 41.5% and clinical benefit rate (CBR) of 82.5%, with rates of 87.5% and 100% respectively in baseline ESR1 mutation patients. The company is currently conducting a Phase III study to evaluate the efficacy of SIM0270 combined with Everolimus in CDK4/6 inhibitor-treated ER+/HER2- breast cancer [1].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a target price of HKD 84.00, indicating a potential upside of 16.2% from the current price of HKD 72.30 [4][14]. Core Insights - The early data for IBI363 in lung cancer is encouraging, revealing a significant market opportunity. The target price has been raised due to the inclusion of IBI363 in the valuation model, with an estimated peak sales potential of approximately USD 1.5 billion by 2028 [2][7]. - The company plans to initiate a Phase III registration study for IBI363 in squamous NSCLC patients who have failed prior PD-(L)1 therapy, having received breakthrough therapy designation from CDE [7][10]. Financial Overview - Revenue projections show a strong growth trajectory, with expected revenues of RMB 6,206 million in 2023, increasing to RMB 17,071 million by 2027, representing a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 36.2% from 2023 to 2024 and 20.0% from 2026 to 2027 [3][15]. - The net profit is projected to turn positive in 2025, with an estimated net profit of RMB 751 million, growing to RMB 3,242 million by 2027 [3][15]. - The earnings per share (EPS) is expected to improve significantly, moving from a loss of RMB 0.66 in 2023 to a profit of RMB 1.97 by 2027 [3][15]. Clinical Data Highlights - IBI363 demonstrated an overall response rate (ORR) of 26-37% in squamous NSCLC patients, with a median progression-free survival (PFS) of 5.5-9.3 months and a median overall survival (OS) exceeding 15.3 months [7][8]. - In the non-squamous NSCLC cohort, the ORR was 24% with a median PFS of 5.6 months, indicating the drug's potential effectiveness in a challenging treatment landscape [7][9]. Market Potential - The report highlights a significant unmet need in the second-line treatment for I/O resistant NSCLC patients, with current therapies showing an ORR of less than 20% and median PFS/OS of less than 4 months/12 months [7][10]. - The global sales for PD-(L)1 drugs are projected to exceed USD 40 billion in 2024, underscoring the substantial market opportunity for effective therapies like IBI363 [7].

Industry Rating - The report rates the internet industry as "Leading" [1] Core Insights - The report highlights that Tencent's domestic revenue increased by 800 million CNY (4%) year-on-year, primarily driven by "Honor of Kings" and new game releases [1] - NetEase's mobile game revenue showed a slight decline of 100 million CNY (2%) year-on-year, but new game contributions offset the impact of high base effects [1] - The overall performance of top mobile games remained stable, with a year-on-year increase of 6% from January to May 2025, aligning with expectations [4][6] Summary by Sections Investment Rating - Tencent and NetEase are both rated as "Buy" with respective price-to-earnings ratios of 17.2 and 15.6 for 2025 [5][41] Revenue Performance - Tencent's domestic mobile game revenue reached a new high of nearly 5 billion CNY in May, with "Delta Action" contributing significantly [1][14] - NetEase's "Yanyun Sixteen Sounds" achieved a record high revenue close to 300 million CNY in May [17] New Game Releases - Tencent and NetEase are set to release multiple new games in June, including "Final Fantasy 14: Crystal World" and "Marvel Secret War" [5][32] Market Trends - The report notes that Tencent's overseas revenue decreased by 860 million CNY (15%) year-on-year, primarily due to high base effects from "Brawl Stars" [21] - In contrast, NetEase's overseas revenue increased by 150 million CNY (29%), benefiting from contributions from "Peak Speed" and new releases [21] Valuation Overview - The report provides a valuation summary for key gaming companies, indicating Tencent's market capitalization at approximately 599.6 billion CNY and NetEase at around 79.8 billion CNY [41]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a target price of HKD 84.00, indicating a potential upside of 16.2% from the current closing price of HKD 72.30 [4][14]. Core Insights - The early clinical data for IBI363 in lung cancer is encouraging, revealing a significant market opportunity. The target market for IBI363 is characterized as a "blue ocean" due to limited existing treatment options for first-line I/O resistant NSCLC patients [2][7]. - The report projects that IBI363 could achieve peak sales of approximately USD 1.5 billion by 2028, based on a conservative estimate of capturing around 10% of the post-PD-(L)1 treatment market with a 40% success rate [7][10]. - The financial forecasts show substantial revenue growth, with expected revenues increasing from RMB 6,206 million in 2023 to RMB 17,071 million by 2027, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 36.2% from 2023 to 2024 and 20.0% from 2026 to 2027 [3][15]. Financial Overview - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: RMB 6,206 million in 2023, RMB 9,422 million in 2024, RMB 11,782 million in 2025, RMB 14,231 million in 2026, and RMB 17,071 million in 2027, with year-on-year growth rates of 36.2%, 51.8%, 25.1%, 20.8%, and 20.0% respectively [3][15]. - The net profit is expected to turn positive in 2025, reaching RMB 751 million, and further increasing to RMB 3,242 million by 2027 [3][15]. - The earnings per share (EPS) is projected to improve from a loss of RMB 0.66 in 2023 to a profit of RMB 1.97 by 2027 [3][15]. Clinical Data Highlights - IBI363 demonstrated an overall response rate (ORR) of 26-37% in squamous NSCLC patients, with a median progression-free survival (PFS) of 5.5-9.3 months and a median overall survival (OS) exceeding 15.3 months [7][8]. - In the EGFR wild-type non-squamous NSCLC cohort, the ORR was 24% with a median PFS of 5.6 months [7][9]. - The safety profile of IBI363 is reported to be manageable, with the most common grade 3 adverse events being joint pain and rash [7].

Industry Rating - The automotive industry is rated as "Leading" [1] Core Insights - The penetration rate of new energy vehicles (NEVs) is expected to reach 55% in 2025, driven by the acceleration of hybrid technology and the introduction of multiple hybrid models [5][24] - The heavy truck market is anticipated to recover in the second half of 2025 due to favorable policies, with an expected total sales volume of 950,000 units, representing a year-on-year increase of 5% [11] - The two-wheeler market is projected to sell 56 million units in 2025, supported by new regulations and trade-in policies [12] - The trend of large range extender batteries is emerging, with a focus on overseas market dynamics and tariff changes [13] - The humanoid robot industry is approaching a critical point of industrialization, with several companies planning mass production [14][15] Summary by Sections Passenger Vehicles - The total retail sales of passenger vehicles in China are expected to grow by 2.9% year-on-year in 2025, with a total of 23.56 million units sold [8][16] - The retail sales of NEVs reached 3.32 million units in the first four months of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 35.7% [24] - The average price of passenger vehicles has decreased to 170,000 yuan, with NEVs averaging 158,000 yuan [34] Heavy Trucks - The heavy truck market is expected to see a recovery in the second half of 2025, with total sales projected at 950,000 units [11] - The market concentration is increasing, with the top five manufacturers holding a market share of 91% [11] Two-Wheelers - The two-wheeler market is expected to recover, with sales projected to reach 56 million units in 2025 [12] - New regulations are raising production standards, leading to increased market concentration [12] Batteries - The trend of large range extender batteries is gaining traction, with companies accelerating their layouts in commercial vehicle batteries [13] - The solid-state battery technology is gradually breaking through, with companies pushing for research and development [13] Humanoid Robots - The humanoid robot industry is nearing mass production, with several companies planning to deliver robots in 2025 [14] - There is a focus on core components that are domestically produced, which are expected to see increased demand [15]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for key companies in the internet and education sectors, including Alibaba, Tencent, Meituan, JD.com, and others, indicating a positive outlook for their performance in the second half of 2025 [4][11]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes that investment opportunities in the internet sector will depend on the operational performance of various sub-industries, competitive dynamics, and the progress of AI development. Companies with strong performance certainty, reasonable valuations, and robust business and technological barriers are favored [1][11]. - The report suggests that while major players like Alibaba and Tencent are expected to perform well, there are also opportunities in undervalued quality companies like Meituan and JD.com, which may have turnaround potential despite current uncertainties [11]. Summary by Sections Local Services - The report notes that the food delivery market is projected to reach nearly 2 trillion yuan, with market share expected to remain at Meituan: Ele.me 6:3. The impact of subsidy investments on platform profits is highlighted, with potential adjustments in strategies post-618 shopping festival [10][11]. E-commerce - National subsidies are expected to continue benefiting JD.com in Q3, although high base effects may impact growth in Q4. The report anticipates that the market has already priced in the slowdown in JD.com's growth rates [10][11]. OTA (Online Travel Agency) - OTA platforms are expected to maintain revenue growth rates of 15-20%, primarily driven by hotel bookings. The competitive environment is described as orderly, with cautious subsidy rates and high monetization rates [10][11]. Gaming - Tencent is focusing on flagship games and expanding its evergreen game product line, while NetEase is expected to see strong growth in PC games. The report anticipates a recovery in mobile game revenue in the second half of the year [10][11]. Entertainment - The report highlights the commercial growth potential of the music industry, with a ranking of growth potential across various entertainment sectors. Tencent Music and NetEase Cloud Music are noted for their strong growth certainty [10][11]. AI Development - The report discusses the acceleration of AI applications driven by technological breakthroughs, with a focus on cloud service providers. It suggests that companies like Alibaba Cloud and Tencent Cloud are well-positioned to benefit from this trend [10][11]. Education - The report indicates that companies like TAL Education and New Oriental are approaching historical low valuations, with potential for performance recovery. The demand for K12 and university education remains strong [10][11].