Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [2][19]. Core Views - The report highlights that Blackwell deployment is progressing smoothly, while there are uncertainties regarding business in China. The management has indicated that some Chinese customers have received export licenses from the U.S. government, but NVIDIA did not deliver H20 products in FY2Q26. Excluding revenue from China, the management's guidance for FY3Q26 revenue is a median of $54 billion, with a gross margin median of 73.5% [6][11]. - The report also notes the release of Spectrum XGS, which is expected to enhance the optimization capabilities of data center networks and could generate annualized revenue of $10 billion. The Rubin series of new chips is in the foundry stage and is expected to launch in 2H26, with significant upgrades over Blackwell [6][10]. - The target price for NVIDIA has been raised to $204, corresponding to a 33x FY27E price-to-earnings ratio, reflecting adjustments in revenue forecasts for FY2026 and FY2027 [6][11]. Financial Overview - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: - FY2024: $60,922 million - FY2025: $130,497 million - FY2026E: $207,043 million - FY2027E: $269,112 million - FY2028E: $287,367 million - Year-on-year growth rates are projected at 125.9% for FY2024, 114.2% for FY2025, 58.7% for FY2026, 30.0% for FY2027, and 6.8% for FY2028 [5][21]. - Net profit estimates are as follows: - FY2024: $32,312 million - FY2025: $74,265 million - FY2026E: $110,138 million - FY2027E: $152,118 million - FY2028E: $158,785 million - Earnings per share (EPS) projections are: - FY2024: $1.30 - FY2025: $2.99 - FY2026E: $4.44 - FY2027E: $6.19 - FY2028E: $6.46 [5][21]. Market Performance - The stock price closed at $181.60 with a target price of $204.00, indicating a potential upside of 12.3% [19][20]. - The company has shown a year-to-date price change of 34.16% and has a market capitalization of $4,396,148 million [4][21]. Product Strategy - The report discusses NVIDIA's "dumbbell strategy," focusing on developing both "highly standardized" and "highly open" products. This includes the Blackwell GB200/300 NVL72 cabinet products and the NVLink Fusion and Spectrum-XGS Ethernet connection systems, which aim to enhance compatibility with various accelerators and improve market competitiveness [9][10].

Investment Rating - The report has adjusted the investment rating of the company to "Neutral" [2][5]. Core Views - The company is expected to experience a structural adjustment leading to a potential bottoming out of its medium to long-term gross profit margin [2]. - The target price for the company is set at HKD 3.20, indicating a potential upside of 6.7% from the current price of HKD 3.00 [5][9]. Financial Overview - For the fiscal year ending December 31, 2023, the company is projected to generate revenue of RMB 15,443 million, with a year-on-year growth of 0.4% [4][10]. - The core profit for 2023 is estimated at RMB 1,555 million, with a core earnings per share (EPS) of RMB 1.10 [4][10]. - The company reported a total revenue of RMB 64.7 billion for the first half of 2025, a decrease of 8.3% year-on-year, primarily due to a proactive adjustment in business scale [5][6]. - The gross profit margin for the first half of 2025 declined by 2.4 percentage points to 14.5% [5][6]. Business Adjustments - The company has actively integrated and exited non-profitable projects, resulting in a 10.4% and 7.7% year-on-year decrease in managed and contracted property areas, respectively [5][6]. - The reliance on the real estate market has been reduced, with the proportion of revenue from value-added services continuing to decline [5][6]. Dividend Policy - The company has proposed an interim dividend of RMB 0.062 per share for the first half of 2025, representing a 107% increase compared to the previous year's interim dividend of RMB 0.03 [5][6].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, Mengniu Dairy (2319 HK), with a target price adjusted to HKD 21.51, reflecting a potential upside of 35.8% from the current price of HKD 15.84 [1][12]. Core Insights - The management has lowered its guidance due to uncertainties in terminal recovery, with expectations of a mid-to-high single-digit decline in revenue for the full year, contrasting with earlier projections of low single-digit growth [2][7]. - Despite revenue pressures, the company's profitability has shown improvement, with gross margin increasing by 1.4 percentage points to 41.7% due to declining raw milk prices [7]. - The core liquid milk business experienced a revenue decline of 11.2% year-on-year, while other categories such as ice cream, cheese, and infant formula showed positive growth [7][8]. Financial Overview - Revenue projections for 2025 have been reduced by 8% to RMB 83,122 million, with liquid milk sales expected to decline by 10.2% [8]. - Net profit estimates for 2025 have been adjusted downwards by 27.2% to RMB 4,024 million, reflecting a significant decrease in profitability expectations [8]. - The company aims for an annual improvement of 30-50 basis points in operating profit margin over the next three years, despite current challenges [7]. Market Performance - The stock has seen a year-to-date decline of 9.79%, with a 52-week high of HKD 22.15 and a low of HKD 12.30 [6][12]. - The average daily trading volume is reported at 43.21 million shares, indicating active market participation [6]. Earnings Forecast Changes - The report outlines significant downward revisions in earnings forecasts for 2025-2027, with operating profit and net profit estimates reduced by 11-19% and 9-27%, respectively [8][9]. - The adjusted earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is projected at RMB 1.02, down from previous estimates [3][8]. Dividend and Shareholder Returns - The company maintains a dividend payout ratio of approximately 32.9%, with expected dividends per share increasing over the forecast period [15]. - The report highlights the importance of the company's dividend and share buyback plans as a safety margin for investors [7].

Group 1: Nvidia - Blackwell Ultra deployment is progressing smoothly, but uncertainties remain regarding exports to China. FY2Q26 revenue reached $46.7 billion with a Non-GAAP gross margin of 72.7%, exceeding previous guidance [1] - Management has guided a median revenue of $54 billion for FY3Q26, with a median gross margin of 73.5%. If export conditions allow, an additional $2-5 billion in revenue could be generated [1] - The launch of Spectrum XGS and the progress of the Rubin series are in line with expectations, although the performance improvement of Rubin over Blackwell remains unclear [2] Group 2: Ctrip Group - Ctrip's Q2 performance exceeded expectations, with hotel business growth surpassing forecasts and market share continuing to rise. The company is well-positioned in the current competitive environment [3] - The target price has been adjusted to HKD 653 based on a 20x 2026 P/E ratio, maintaining a buy rating [3] Group 3: Meituan - Meituan's Q2 revenue grew by 12% year-on-year, but adjusted net profit fell by 89% due to irrational competition in the industry [6] - The company expects intensified competition in the third quarter, leading to a projected loss exceeding 15 billion yuan [6][7] Group 4: China National Heavy Duty Truck Group - The company reported a 4.2% year-on-year increase in revenue for the first half of 2025, with net profit rising by 4.0%, aligning with market expectations [8] - The target price is set at HKD 26.45, reflecting a 9.9x P/E ratio for 2025, with a focus on structural recovery in heavy truck sales [8] Group 5: China Innovationpay - The company experienced a 31.7% year-on-year revenue increase in the first half of 2025, with a significant 109.7% growth in energy storage battery revenue [9] - The target price is maintained at HKD 24.77, anticipating a concentrated release of delivery capacity in 2026 [10] Group 6: Innovent Biologics - The company reported a 37% year-on-year increase in product revenue for the first half of 2025, with net profit reaching 830 million yuan [11] - The target price has been raised to HKD 105, reflecting a positive outlook on the company's pipeline and commercialization efforts [12] Group 7: China Life Insurance - The company saw a 6.9% year-on-year increase in net profit for the first half of 2025, although growth has slowed compared to Q1 [18] - The target price has been adjusted to HKD 30, based on a 1.4x P/B ratio for 2025 [19] Group 8: China Pacific Insurance - The company achieved a 32.3% year-on-year increase in net profit for the first half of 2025, with strong performance in both underwriting and investment [20] - The target price has been raised to HKD 24, reflecting improved profitability and competitive advantages [21] Group 9: Yasheng Group - The company reported an 8.3% year-on-year decline in total revenue for the first half of 2025, primarily due to proactive business scale adjustments [22] - The target price is maintained at HKD 3.20, with expectations for recovery as margins stabilize [23] Group 10: XinAo Energy - The company experienced a slight 1% year-on-year decline in core profit for the first half of 2025, meeting market expectations [24] - The target price has been adjusted to HKD 73.66, reflecting a cautious outlook on retail gas demand [24]

交银国际研究 财务模型更新 | 医药 | 收盘价 | | 目标价 | | 潜在涨幅 | 2025 年 8 月 28 日 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 港元 | | 66.50 | 港元 | 78.00↑ | +17.3% | | | 康诺亚 (2162 HK) | | | | | | | 1H25 核心品种市场渗透加速，差异化布局，上调目标价 司普奇拜单抗首个完整半年商业化成绩优异，TSLP/IL-13 双抗有望成为自免领 域下一代重磅单品，重点布局鼻科适应症。借助强大的临床开发执行力及差 异化显著的多种技术平台，公司跨技术路径、跨疾病领域的多元产品矩阵逐 步成型，并从自免和肿瘤进一步延展至更多大潜力治疗领域。上调目标价。 个股评级 买入 1 年股价表现 资料来源 : FactSet 8/24 12/24 4/25 8/25 -20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 120% 140% 2162 HK 恒生指数 股份资料 | 52周高位 (港元) | 74.75 | | --- | --- | | 52周低位 (港元) | 27 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company 中创新航 (3931 HK) [3][2] Core Views - The report highlights steady improvement in profitability for 1H25, with breakthroughs in overseas energy storage and commercial vehicle businesses driving battery shipment growth. The target price is set at HKD 24.77, indicating a potential upside of 14.7% from the current price of HKD 21.60 [2][8] Financial Performance Summary - Revenue for 1H25 increased by 31.7% year-on-year to RMB 16.42 billion, with energy storage battery revenue soaring by 109.7% to RMB 5.76 billion. The gross margin reached 17.5%, up 1.9 percentage points year-on-year [7][12] - Net profit for 1H25 rose by 80.4% year-on-year to RMB 750 million, with a net profit margin of 4.6% [7][12] - The company expects to maintain its annual shipment forecast, with adjustments to battery price expectations leading to a revenue forecast reduction of 8%-10% for 2025-2027 [7][8] Earnings Forecast Changes - The report provides updated earnings forecasts for 2025E, 2026E, and 2027E, with revenue estimates of RMB 37.698 billion, RMB 45.33 billion, and RMB 51.518 billion respectively, reflecting a decrease of 8%-10% from previous estimates [6][12] - The net profit forecast for 2025E is adjusted to RMB 1.79 billion, with a net profit margin of 4.7% [6][12] Market Position and Growth Potential - The company has seen significant growth in its commercial vehicle battery segment, with a year-on-year increase in delivery volume of 22.7% to 21.8 GWh, and a market share increase of 2.8 percentage points to 6.7% [7][12] - The overseas energy storage business is expected to maintain strong growth, with successful project completions in Latin America and South Africa [7][8]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for China National Heavy Duty Truck Group Co., Ltd. (3808 HK) with a target price of HKD 26.45, indicating a potential upside of 13.4% from the current price of HKD 23.32 [1][2][6]. Core Insights - The company demonstrated stable performance with a revenue of RMB 50.878 billion in the first half of 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 4.2%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was RMB 3.427 billion, also up by 4.0% year-on-year, aligning with market expectations [6]. - Heavy truck sales increased by 9.2% to 136,000 units, with domestic and overseas sales growing by 19.3% and 0.8%, respectively. The gross margin slightly improved year-on-year but decreased quarter-on-quarter to 15.1% in the second half of 2024 [6]. - The company declared an interim dividend of RMB 0.68 per share, representing approximately 55% of the net profit for the first half, indicating a commitment to shareholder returns [6]. Financial Overview - Revenue projections for the upcoming years are as follows: RMB 85,498 million in 2023, RMB 95,062 million in 2024, and RMB 109,886 million in 2025, with a year-on-year growth rate of 43.9% in 2023 and 11.2% in 2024 [5][10]. - The net profit is expected to grow from RMB 5,318 million in 2023 to RMB 6,719 million in 2025, with a corresponding increase in earnings per share from RMB 1.93 to RMB 2.43 [5][10]. - The company maintains a healthy dividend yield, projected to be 5.0% in 2023, increasing to 6.3% by 2025 [5][10]. Market Position - China National Heavy Duty Truck holds a market share of approximately 27.6%, reinforcing its position as a leading player in the domestic heavy truck market. The report anticipates that the company will achieve sales of 1 million units in the current year, supported by government incentives and a recovery in demand [6][10]. - The heavy truck industry is expected to transition from seasonal recovery to structural growth, benefiting major players like China National Heavy Duty Truck due to increasing demand and favorable policies [6].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, Shenzhou International (2313 HK), with a target price adjusted to HKD 84.00, indicating a potential upside of 41.5% from the current price of HKD 59.35 [1][7][12]. Core Insights - The company has shown steady revenue growth in the first half of 2025, with a year-on-year increase of 15.3% to RMB 14.97 billion, primarily driven by volume growth, while the average selling price saw a slight increase of 0.8% [6][7]. - Net profit for the same period rose by 8.4% to RMB 3.18 billion, although the gross margin decreased to 27.1%, down 1.9 percentage points year-on-year, influenced by ongoing employee salary increases [6][7]. - The report highlights a significant growth in leisure products, which surged by 37.4%, while sports products grew by 9.9% in the European and American markets [6][7]. - The company is expanding its overseas production capacity, with a new fabric factory in Vietnam set to begin operations by the end of 2025 and a new garment factory in Cambodia already operational [6][7]. Financial Summary - Revenue projections for the company have been slightly reduced for 2025 and 2026 by 3-4%, with net profit forecasts adjusted down by 16% due to more conservative gross margin assumptions [6][7]. - The expected revenue for 2025 is RMB 32.17 billion, with a projected net profit of RMB 6.55 billion, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 4.9% [5][13]. - The report anticipates a gross margin of 27.2% for 2025, which is a decrease from previous estimates, and a net profit margin of 20.4% [8][14].

Group 1: Fourth Paradigm - The company is expected to achieve profitability in 2025, driven by increased demand for AI productivity in traditional industries [1] - Revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 have been raised by 7-22%, with a projected annual growth rate of 30% until 2029, reaching a revenue scale of 20 billion [1] - The target price has been adjusted to HKD 81, reflecting a potential upside of 27.6% [1] Group 2: Xianzhai AI Platform - The company reported a revenue of 2.626 billion, with a year-on-year growth of 40.7%, and the Xianzhai AI platform revenue grew by 71.9% [2] - The gross margin decreased to 37.7% compared to 42.7% for the full year of 2024, primarily due to an increase in sales of integrated hardware and software solutions [2] - The expense ratio improved to 45%, down from 50% in 2024, indicating ongoing operational efficiency [2] Group 3: Huanyou Group - The company exceeded profit expectations in Q2, with a revenue of 510 million, showing a 3% quarter-on-quarter recovery [3] - The adjusted net profit reached 77 million, surpassing the expected 63 million [3] - The advertising business is expected to continue driving incremental growth [3] Group 4: Kangfang Bio - The company achieved positive results in the HARMONi-A study, which is expected to enhance its commercial landscape due to insurance coverage [7] - The commercial sales revenue for the first half of 2025 grew by 49% to 1.4 billion, driven by key products included in the insurance directory [8] - The target price has been raised to HKD 183, reflecting a strong outlook for the company's products [8] Group 5: Jinxin Reproductive - The company faced significant performance pressure in the first half of 2025, with a revenue decline of 11% to 1.29 billion and a net loss of 1.04 billion [9] - The management plans to restructure the U.S. business and focus on key domestic operations to improve financial performance [10] - The target price has been lowered to HKD 3.30, reflecting a more cautious outlook [10] Group 6: Anta - The company reported a 14.3% year-on-year revenue growth in the first half of 2025, reaching 38.54 billion [11] - The overall gross margin decreased slightly to 63.4%, influenced by deeper discounts and a higher proportion of online sales [11] - The target price has been raised to HKD 117.90, indicating a positive long-term outlook [12] Group 7: Shenzhou International - The company experienced a 15.3% revenue growth in the first half of 2025, totaling 14.97 billion [13] - The gross margin recorded 27.1%, down 1.9 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to rising labor costs [13] - The target price has been adjusted to HKD 84.00, reflecting a conservative outlook on profitability [14] Group 8: Ping An Insurance - The company reported a 3.7% year-on-year growth in operating profit, while net profit declined by 8.8% due to lower investment income [15] - New business value increased by 39.8%, exceeding expectations, primarily driven by the bancassurance channel [15] - The target price remains at HKD 73, indicating an attractive valuation [16] Group 9: China Resources Land - The company saw a 20% year-on-year revenue increase in the first half of 2025, reaching 94.9 billion [17] - The overall gross margin improved by 1.7 percentage points to 24%, with a core profit decline of 6.6% [17] - The target price has been raised to HKD 35.30, reflecting a positive outlook on profitability [18] Group 10: CIMC Enric - The company reported a 15.6% year-on-year increase in profit for the first half of 2025, totaling 560 million [19] - The clean energy segment saw a revenue increase of 22%, while chemical and liquid food segments experienced declines [19] - The target price has been raised to HKD 8.40, maintaining a buy rating [19] Group 11: Fuyao Glass - The company faced a revenue decline of 26% in Q2 2025, with a significant asset impairment charge [20] - The photovoltaic glass industry is expected to rebound due to reduced production and increased demand [20] - The target price has been slightly adjusted to HKD 11.70, reflecting a positive outlook on valuation [20] Group 12: Jingneng Clean Energy - The company reported a 5% decline in profit for the first half of 2025, but operating profit increased by 10% after adjusting for one-time items [21] - The company plans to adjust its renewable energy installation forecasts for 2025-2027 [22] - The target price has been raised to HKD 3.12, indicating a strong dividend yield [22]

交银国际研究 公司更新 | 燃气 | 收盘价 | | 目标价 | 潜在涨幅 | 2025 年 8 月 28 日 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 港元 | | 62.95 | 港元 73.66↓ | +17.0% | | | 新奧能源 (2688 HK) | | | | | | 上半年经营偏弱，目前私有化进展顺利 财务数据一览 | 年结12月31日 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 收入 (百万人民币) | 113,858 | 109,853 | 112,647 | 117,572 | 122,689 | | 同比增长 (%) | 3.5 | -3.5 | 2.5 | 4.4 | 4.4 | | 净利润 (百万人民币) | 6,816 | 5,987 | 7,169 | 7,644 | 7,860 | | 每股盈利 (人民币) | 6.71 | 6.14 | 6.34 | 6.76 | 6.95 | | 同比增长 (%) | -4.8 ...