交银国际研究 行业剖析 2026 年 1 月 28 日 消费行业 行业前瞻洞察系列： 零食量贩行业——效率重塑的下半场 作为硬折扣模式在零食零售行业的成功应用，零食量贩业态顺应了消费者对质 价比与便捷购物的需求趋势，实现了对传统渠道的效率升级。我们认为，当前 行业发展将逐步从门店扩张为主过渡到以精细化运营和单店价值提升的高质量 增长阶段。当前"南很忙、北万辰"的头部企业格局已趋稳固，竞争焦点将逐 步从规模扩张和份额争夺转向效率兑现与业态升级。因此，业态演进和盈利能 力提升将是未来关注的重点。本报告中，我们聚焦零食量贩行业这一新兴业 态，拆解商业逻辑、前瞻行业发展趋势、以及剖析竞争格局，为把握该新兴业 态提供投资参考。 行业与大盘一年趋势图 资料来源： FactSet 1/25 5/25 9/25 -10% -5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 行业表现 恒生指数 肖凯希 cathy.xiao@bocomgroup.com (852) 3766 1856 钱昊, CFA Alan.Qian@bocomgroup.com (852) 3766 1853 此报告最后部分的分析师披露、商 ...

交银国际研究 每日晨报 2026 年 1 月 29 日 今日焦点 | 消费行业 | | | --- | --- | | 行业前瞻洞察系列： | | | 零食量贩行业——效率重塑的下半场 | | | 肖凯希 | cathy.xiao@bocomgroup.com | 以效率重塑零食零售价值链的硬折扣模型：零食量贩的成功在于对渠道 价值链的有效重构。它通过压缩中间流通环节、规模化直采的硬折扣模 型，将终端加价率大幅压缩，从而形成了较传统渠道便宜两到三成的可 持续的价格优势，充分顺应了当下消费者追求质价比的消费趋势。 未来增长动力将逐步从门店扩张转向单店价值提升：零食量贩行业的未 来增长依旧可观，驱动因素主要包括门店扩张与单店价值提升。我们测 算中期全国门店天花板约为 6.7 万家，较当前仍有超过三成的增长空间 ，下沉市场与空白区域将成为主要增量来源。之后，随着门店数量接近 中期目标，增长动能将逐步转向单店潜力的挖掘。 "双强"格局下的盈利释放周期有望逐步开启：行业已形成集中度较高 、且相对稳定的"双强"格局。对于头部企业而言，规模效应的进一步 显现将带来盈利能力的提升，净利率水平有可观的上行空间，主要依靠 采购成 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a Neutral rating for Li Ning (2331 HK) with a target price adjusted to HKD 19.50, indicating a potential downside of 0.3% from the closing price of HKD 19.55 [2][5][8]. Core Insights - The fourth quarter saw a narrowing decline in retail sales, but recovery momentum remains uncertain. The overall operations are still in a bottoming phase, with management indicating that the previously provided guidance for slight revenue growth and high single-digit net profit margin for 2025 is expected to be achieved [3][8]. - The company is benefiting from effective cost control and government subsidies, which support the maintenance of profit forecasts for 2025-2027. The upcoming sports events in 2026 are expected to enhance brand marketing and market attention, potentially increasing long-term brand value [8]. - Offline channels continue to face pressure, with discount levels deepening to around 60%, reflecting competitive industry dynamics. The e-commerce channel's growth has weakened compared to previous quarters [8]. Financial Overview - Revenue projections for Li Ning are as follows: - 2023: RMB 27,598 million - 2024: RMB 28,676 million (7.0% YoY growth) - 2025E: RMB 28,929 million (3.9% YoY growth) - 2026E: RMB 30,286 million (0.9% YoY growth) - 2027E: RMB 31,206 million (4.7% YoY growth) [4][10]. - Net profit estimates are: - 2023: RMB 3,187 million - 2024: RMB 3,013 million - 2025E: RMB 2,664 million - 2026E: RMB 3,007 million - 2027E: RMB 3,370 million [4][19]. - The company’s earnings per share (EPS) are projected to be: - 2023: RMB 1.23 - 2024: RMB 1.17 - 2025E: RMB 1.03 - 2026E: RMB 1.17 - 2027E: RMB 1.31 [4][21]. Market Position and Strategy - As of the end of Q4 2025, the inventory turnover ratio has returned to a healthy level of 4-5 months, achieving the company's target. The total number of Li Ning stores (excluding Li Ning YOUNG) decreased by 41 to 6,091 [8]. - The company is actively optimizing its store network, with the first "Dragon Store" model launched in December [8].

Industry Rating - The report rates the pharmaceutical industry as "Leading" [1] Core Insights - The report highlights a concentrated trend of domestic innovative drug collaborations and transactions as the year ends, with expectations for value recovery in 2026 [1][4] - The overall market performance shows a decline, with the Hang Seng Index down 0.8% and the Hang Seng Healthcare Index down 4.3% during the week [4][7] - The report emphasizes the importance of stock selection logic returning to fundamentals and valuations, focusing on stocks that are currently undervalued with expected fundamental improvements [4] Valuation Summary - The report provides a detailed valuation overview of various companies, indicating target prices and earnings per share estimates for FY25E and FY26E, along with their respective price-to-earnings ratios [3] - Notable companies with "Buy" ratings include AstraZeneca, BeiGene, and Hansoh Pharmaceutical, with target prices significantly above current trading prices [3] Market Trends - The report notes a slight decrease in domestic institutional holdings through the Hong Kong Stock Connect, while foreign holdings remain stable [33] - The report identifies a trend of increasing positions in leading innovative pharmaceutical companies by domestic investors, particularly in companies like Heng Rui Medicine and Rongchang Bio [36] Investment Insights - The report mentions several significant business development (BD) transactions exceeding $1 billion, indicating a robust pipeline for innovative drugs [4][5] - It recommends focusing on specific segments such as innovative drugs and CXO companies that are expected to benefit from downstream recovery and high market demand [4]

Group 1: Technology Industry - The outlook for 2026 suggests that the artificial intelligence (AI) supercycle may continue, with strong growth in AI infrastructure expected at least until 2026, driven by significant capital expenditure increases from major cloud providers, projected to grow over 30% in 2026 following over 60% growth in 2024 and 2025 [1][2] - The report highlights a persistent supply-demand imbalance in computing acceleration and network communication chips, with overall demand remaining high despite potential increases in supply [1] - The "15th Five-Year Plan" is expected to accelerate domestic substitution opportunities in key industrial chains, supported by favorable policies during this period [1] Group 2: Semiconductor and AI Infrastructure - The recovery in terminal demand is noted to be moderate, with strong demand for servers closely related to AI, while global consumer electronics demand for 2026 is viewed with caution due to the prolonged price increases in memory chips [2] - Investment recommendations include overseas chip design and foundry companies such as NVIDIA (NVDA US), Broadcom (AVGO US), and TSMC (TSM US), which are expected to benefit from AI infrastructure development [2] - Domestic AI and substitution opportunities are also highlighted, with companies like Northern Huachuang (002371 CH), OmniVision (603501 CH), Zhongwei Company (688012 CH), and Huahong Semiconductor (1347 HK) recommended for investment [2] Group 3: Pharmaceutical Industry - The report indicates that the transition to an inquiry-based procurement model for the 1-8 batch of national procurement may limit overall price reductions, suggesting a smaller-than-expected impact on Hong Kong prescription drug companies [3] - The healthcare sector's performance is noted, with the Hang Seng Healthcare Index rising by 0.5%, although it underperformed the broader market [3] - Investment insights suggest a focus on innovative drugs and stable traditional companies, with a positive outlook on the innovation theme in the long term [3][6] Group 4: Economic Data and Market Performance - The report includes key economic data releases from the US and China, with manufacturing and non-manufacturing PMI figures indicating varying market expectations [7] - The performance of major global indices is summarized, with the Hang Seng Index closing at 25,936, reflecting a year-to-date increase of 29.05% [4] - Commodity prices and foreign exchange rates are also provided, showing significant fluctuations in various markets, which may impact investment strategies [5]

Group 1: Pharmaceutical Industry - The pharmaceutical sector is expected to maintain a stable upward trend in 2026, driven by undervaluation and catalysts that could further enhance overall valuations [3][4] - Key recommendations include companies like 3SBio, Eucure Biopharma, and BeiGene, which have rich catalysts and limited impact from centralized procurement [4] - The focus will shift back to fundamentals and valuations, particularly for stocks that are currently undervalued with expected positive fundamental differences [3][4] Group 2: Real Estate Industry - The real estate sector in mainland China is projected to explore new development models under strong policy support, with expected sales area between 900-950 million square meters and sales value around 10-11 trillion RMB in 2026 [5] - In Hong Kong, key factors for market recovery include improved macro uncertainty, significant policy easing, and the return of fundamental demand drivers, with residential rental levels expected to grow by approximately 3% annually [5] - Investment preferences are ranked as state-owned enterprises with low valuations, private sector leaders with land reserves in first and second-tier cities, followed by other private developers [5] Group 3: Retail and Office Market - The retail rental market in Hong Kong is expected to see moderate growth, with community mall rents increasing by about 3-5%, while office vacancy rates have peaked, setting the stage for a rebound in 2026 [7] - The intrinsic value of the Hong Kong physical market is anticipated to gradually release, with New World Development recommended as a high-quality proxy for residential recovery [7]

Consumer Industry - The consumer market in mainland China has shown a mild recovery since 2025, with cautious consumer sentiment expected to continue into 2026, leading to a new normal characterized by moderate growth and structural differentiation in demand [1] - Companies can seize growth opportunities by focusing on product positioning, channel layout, and technology application, while also exploring overseas markets as a strategic path for growth [1] - The report suggests a dual strategy for investment: allocate to defensive sectors with stable cash flow and strong demand resilience, while also actively pursuing high-growth structural opportunities [2] Automotive Industry - In November, BYD's passenger car sales reached 474,921 units, showing a year-on-year increase of 8.7% but a month-on-month decline of 5.8% [3] - NIO delivered 36,275 new cars in November, marking a significant year-on-year increase of 76.3% and a month-on-month increase of 10.2% [4] - Xpeng Motors delivered 36,728 units in November, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 18.9% but a month-on-month decline of 12.6% [5] - Li Auto delivered 33,181 new cars in November, with a year-on-year decrease of 31.9% and a month-on-month increase of 4.5%, impacted by supply chain bottlenecks [8] - Leap Motor achieved total deliveries of 70,327 units in November, a year-on-year increase of 75.1% [8] - The report emphasizes the importance of maintaining caution regarding short-term fluctuations while focusing on structural opportunities in the automotive sector [11]

Core Insights - The report emphasizes the potential for a year-end market rally in Hong Kong stocks, driven by domestic policy support and expectations for a "New Year" market [1][2] - Key focus areas include the upcoming Central Economic Work Conference and the Federal Reserve's December meeting, which will influence market sentiment and liquidity conditions [2][3] Market Overview - The Hang Seng Index closed at 25,946, reflecting a year-to-date increase of 29.15% [4] - Southbound capital inflows have reached a historical high for the year, with a shift towards resilient growth sectors [1][4] - The current price-to-earnings ratio of the Hang Seng Index is near historical averages, suggesting favorable conditions for upward movement in the market [1] Key Variables to Monitor - The Central Economic Work Conference's announcements regarding deficit rates and consumption stimulus policies will be crucial for market risk appetite [2] - The Federal Reserve's December meeting will determine whether the last interest rate cut of the year will occur, with market expectations divided between a pause or further cuts [2] - Year-end portfolio adjustments by institutions may lead to increased volatility in certain sectors due to liquidity constraints [2] Tactical Positioning - The report suggests a tactical increase in exposure to sectors that are expected to benefit from policy expectations and year-end positioning [3] - Recommended stocks for December include: - Prosperity Industrial Trust (778 HK) - NVIDIA (NVDA US) - Shenzhou International (2313 HK) - Sungrow Power Supply (300274 CH) [3]

Group 1: Hong Kong Real Estate Industry - The recovery of the Hong Kong real estate market is expected to be gradual and will encompass different asset sub-sectors, with residential properties being prioritized by investors, followed by quality retail assets and core office spaces [1] - The industry rating has been upgraded from "in-line" to "outperform," with Sun Hung Kai Properties (16 HK) and Link REIT (823 HK) identified as preferred picks for residential and commercial properties, respectively [1] - Key drivers for market recovery include improved macroeconomic uncertainty (especially interest rate cuts), significant policy easing, and the return of fundamental demand drivers [1] Group 2: Residential Market Outlook - Residential rental levels are projected to increase by approximately 3-5% in 2025, with annual increases of about 3% expected in 2026 and 2027 [1] - Residential property prices are anticipated to rise by 3-5% in 2025, 5% in 2026, and 5% in 2027 [1] Group 3: Retail and Office Market Outlook - Core retail rental growth is expected to be moderate over the next 12 months, with community mall rents projected to grow by about 3-5% [2] - The office sector has seen vacancy rates peak over the past 18 months, with core CBD areas recording positive net absorption for eight consecutive quarters; rental rates are expected to stabilize in the second half of 2025, laying the groundwork for a rebound in 2026 [2] Group 4: Sanofi's SSGJ-707 Development - Sanofi's partner, Pfizer, is accelerating the overseas clinical development of SSGJ-707, with plans to initiate at least seven clinical trials soon, including two global Phase III trials targeting 1L sq-/nsq-NSCLC and metastatic colorectal cancer [3] - Pfizer aims to expand the drug's indications and combination therapies significantly by the end of 2026, with over 10 new indications and more than 10 new combination therapies planned [3] Group 5: Three-Spring Pharmaceutical's Strategic Moves - Three-Spring Pharmaceutical plans to spin off its consumer pharmaceutical business, Mandi International, for a separate listing on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, allowing the company to focus on its core prescription and innovative drug business [4][6] - The target price for Three-Spring Pharmaceutical has been raised to HKD 39.50, maintaining a "buy" rating and industry focus [7] Group 6: Li Auto's Performance and Future Outlook - Li Auto reported a net loss of HKD 620 million in Q3 due to recall costs, with gross margins declining to 15.5%; however, strong orders for new electric models are noted [8] - The company is expected to face short-term supply chain bottlenecks but anticipates a recovery with the introduction of a dual-supplier model in November [8]

Investment Rating - The industry rating has been upgraded from "Neutral" to "Outperform" [1][13] Core Insights - The recovery of the Hong Kong real estate market is expected to be a gradual process, with different asset sub-sectors recovering at different rates. The residential sector is anticipated to lead the recovery, followed by quality retail assets and core office spaces [1][8] - Key catalysts for the market recovery include improvements in macroeconomic uncertainty, significant policy easing, and a return of fundamental demand drivers such as demographic trends [5][21] - The report highlights that the residential sector is poised for a rebound, with rental levels expected to rise by approximately 3-5% in 2025, and property prices projected to increase by 3-5% in 2025, 5% in 2026, and 5% in 2027 [5][12] Summary by Sections Investment Highlights - The report emphasizes the importance of selecting the right sub-sector in the Hong Kong real estate market, indicating that the recovery will not be a single event but a phased process targeting different segments [8][20] - The report identifies Sun Hung Kai Properties (16 HK) and Link REIT (823 HK) as preferred investment targets, expecting both to benefit from the sector's recovery and multiple catalysts in the next 1-2 years [1][13] Market Trends and Drivers - The report notes that the Hong Kong real estate market is experiencing a turning point, with several important catalysts indicating that the market is at or near a reversal point [5][20] - The residential sector is expected to see a significant rebound driven by sustained population inflow, which will continue to support housing demand, particularly in the rental market [5][21] - Retail properties are also on a recovery path, supported by stabilizing local consumer sentiment and an increase in inbound tourists, although the growth rate is expected to be more moderate compared to residential properties [5][12] Valuation Overview - The report discusses the potential for asset net value (NAV) expansion and valuation multiple expansion as key drivers for stock price appreciation in the real estate sector [12][11] - The anticipated recovery in rental income and asset prices will directly impact companies' NAV estimates, providing a solid foundation for stock price increases [12][11] Company-Specific Insights - Sun Hung Kai Properties (16 HK) is highlighted as a key beneficiary of the residential recovery, with expectations of improved sales performance and profit margins due to high absorption rates and rising average selling prices [14][15] - Link REIT (823 HK) is positioned as a defensive, high-yield investment choice, expected to benefit from potential interest rate cuts and inclusion in the Hong Kong Stock Connect, which could attract new capital inflows [16][17]