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华润燃气(01193):上半年经营压力高于预期,短期估值下降风险仍在
BOCOM International· 2025-08-29 12:02
Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Neutral" with a target price reduced to HKD 16.50, indicating a potential downside of 13.4% from the current price of HKD 19.05 [1][6][16]. Core Views - The company faced higher-than-expected operational pressures in the first half of the year, leading to a significant decline in net profit by 30.5% year-on-year, which was below market expectations [2][6]. - Despite the disappointing performance, the company increased its interim dividend by 20% to HKD 0.3 per share, indicating a commitment to shareholder returns [6]. - The company anticipates a rebound in retail gas sales and comprehensive service revenue in the second half of the year, with a projected 1.1% year-on-year increase in retail gas sales for 2025 [6][10]. Financial Overview - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: HKD 101,272 million in 2023, HKD 102,676 million in 2024, and HKD 102,403 million in 2025, reflecting a growth rate of 7.3% in 2023 but a decline of 0.3% in 2025 [3][18]. - Net profit is expected to decrease from HKD 5,224 million in 2023 to HKD 3,846 million in 2025, representing a year-on-year decline of 7.3% [3][18]. - The earnings per share (EPS) is projected to be HKD 1.79 in 2023, remaining flat in 2024, and decreasing to HKD 1.66 in 2025 [3][18]. Operational Data - The company reported a total revenue of HKD 49,785 million in the first half of 2025, down 4.4% year-on-year, with gas sales contributing HKD 44,298 million [7][8]. - The retail gas volume is projected to grow to 10,442 million cubic meters in 2025, with a slight increase in gross margin to RMB 0.55 per cubic meter [9][10]. - The number of new residential connections is expected to be adjusted down to 2.1 million for 2025, from an earlier estimate of 2.3 million [6][10].
高途(GOTU):2季度业绩超预期,减亏趋势不改
BOCOM International· 2025-08-29 11:28
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price raised to $5.20, indicating a potential upside of 30.7% from the current closing price of $3.98 [2][4][3]. Core Insights - The company reported better-than-expected Q2 performance, with a revenue increase of 38% year-on-year to 1.4 billion RMB, surpassing market expectations by 5%. The K12 segment showed strong growth, with revenues increasing by over 50% [8][3]. - Adjusted operating losses narrowed by 49% year-on-year to 230 million RMB, reflecting improved operational efficiency and cost structure optimization [8][3]. - The company is expected to continue its upward trajectory, with projected revenues of 6.13 billion RMB in 2025 and a return to profitability in 2026 [3][7]. Financial Forecast Adjustments - Revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 have been adjusted upwards, with 2025 revenue now expected at 6,133 million RMB, a 3.2% increase from previous estimates. The growth rate for 2025 is projected at 34.7% [7][3]. - Adjusted net profit for 2025 is forecasted to be a loss of 176 million RMB, improving to a profit of 213 million RMB in 2026 [7][3]. - The gross profit margin is expected to stabilize around 67.7% for 2025, with operational improvements anticipated to enhance profitability [7][3]. Performance Metrics - The company’s market capitalization stands at approximately 529.34 million USD, with a year-to-date stock price increase of 81.74% [6]. - The stock has a 52-week high of $4.37 and a low of $1.88, indicating significant volatility and potential for growth [6]. - The average daily trading volume is reported at 1.78 million shares, reflecting active market interest [6].
理想汽车-W(02015):2季度收入和盈利大致符合预期,但3季度指引逊预期
BOCOM International· 2025-08-29 11:20
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Neutral" rating for the company with a target price adjusted to HKD 80.84, reflecting a potential downside of 8.3% from the current price of HKD 88.15 [1][10][7]. Core Insights - The company's Q2 revenue and profit were generally in line with expectations, but the guidance for Q3 was below market expectations, indicating short-term demand pressures [2][7]. - The average selling price per vehicle decreased by 2.1% quarter-on-quarter, which was slightly better than anticipated due to promotional efforts to clear old inventory [7]. - The company is facing competitive pressures and promotional challenges that may continue to erode sales and pricing, particularly for its L series vehicles [7]. - The forecast for vehicle deliveries in Q3 is between 90,000 to 95,000 units, which represents a significant quarter-on-quarter decline [7]. - The report suggests that the company's ability to stabilize in Q4 will depend on the ramp-up of the i8 model and market feedback on the i6 model [7]. Financial Overview - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: RMB 123.85 billion in 2023, RMB 144.46 billion in 2024, and a decline to RMB 123.19 billion in 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 173.5% in 2023 but a decrease of 14.7% in 2025 [6][11]. - Net profit is expected to decline significantly from RMB 11.70 billion in 2023 to RMB 5.26 billion in 2025, with a corresponding drop in earnings per share from RMB 5.95 to RMB 2.64 [6][11]. - The company’s price-to-earnings ratio is projected to rise from 13.6 in 2023 to 30.6 in 2025, indicating a potential increase in valuation despite declining profits [6][11]. Stock Performance - The stock has experienced a year-to-date decline of 6.17%, with a 52-week high of HKD 128.70 and a low of HKD 71.90 [4][10]. - The average daily trading volume is reported at 27.49 million shares, indicating active trading interest [4].
固德威(688390):业绩有所修复,有望受益于欧、澳户储需求增长
BOCOM International· 2025-08-29 11:19
Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is Neutral [2][10]. Core Views - The company is expected to benefit from the growth in household storage demand in Europe and Australia, with a notable recovery in performance [7]. - The company's revenue for Q2 2025 was RMB 2.02 billion, showing a year-on-year increase of 9.0% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 17.1% [7]. - The net profit for Q2 2025 was RMB 0.11 billion, a significant year-on-year increase of 129% and a return to profitability compared to the previous quarter [7]. - The company has seen strong sales growth in various products, particularly in the domestic market, although the profit contribution remains limited [7]. - Exports to Europe have shown a significant recovery, with a year-on-year increase of 28% in July, while exports to Australia surged by 187% [7]. - The target price for the company has been raised to RMB 49.00, reflecting an adjustment in market valuation [7]. Financial Overview - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: RMB 7,353 million in 2023, RMB 6,738 million in 2024, and expected to rise to RMB 8,022 million in 2025 [6][12]. - The net profit is projected to recover from a loss of RMB 62 million in 2024 to RMB 170 million in 2025, and further to RMB 457 million in 2026 [12]. - The company’s earnings per share (EPS) is expected to improve from a loss of RMB 0.25 in 2024 to RMB 0.70 in 2025 [12]. - The company’s market capitalization is approximately RMB 7,976.76 million, with a year-to-date change of 22.89% [4].
大唐新能源(01798):大唐新能源(1798HK)
BOCOM International· 2025-08-29 11:17
Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a target price of HKD 2.75, indicating a potential upside of 16.0% from the current price of HKD 2.37 [2][15]. Core Insights - The company is actively addressing the issue of electricity abandonment rates while gradually increasing its dividend payout ratio, which still offers an attractive yield [2]. - The company aims to maintain a target of 3 GW of new installed capacity by 2025 and is taking measures to reduce abandonment rates [6]. - The report anticipates a slight increase in the dividend payout ratio to 30% by 2025, which is expected to enhance long-term valuation [6]. Financial Overview - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: - 2023: RMB 12,802 million - 2024: RMB 12,576 million - 2025E: RMB 13,239 million - 2026E: RMB 14,708 million - 2027E: RMB 15,991 million - The expected net profit for 2025 is RMB 2,425 million, with a projected earnings per share (EPS) of RMB 0.27 [5][16]. - The company’s dividend yield is projected to be 4.5% for 2025, increasing to 5.2% in 2026 [6][16]. Operational Data - The company’s installed capacity is projected to grow as follows: - Wind Power: - 2023: 12,981 MW - 2024: 14,482 MW - 2025E: 15,982 MW - Solar Power: - 2023: 2,438 MW - 2024: 4,365 MW - 2025E: 5,565 MW - Total installed capacity is expected to reach 21,546 MW by 2025 [8][16]. Market Performance - The company’s stock has shown a year-to-date increase of 13.94% and has a 52-week high of HKD 2.50 and a low of HKD 1.75 [4][6].
中国财险(02328):中国人保财险(2328HK)
BOCOM International· 2025-08-29 08:23
Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to China Pacific Insurance (2328 HK) with a target price raised to HKD 24.00, indicating a potential upside of 27.7% from the current closing price of HKD 18.79 [1][12]. Core Insights - The company has demonstrated strong performance in both underwriting and investment, leading to an upward revision of profit forecasts. The expected net profit growth for 2025 is projected at 28% [7][9]. - The report highlights a significant improvement in underwriting profit, with a combined ratio (COR) of 94.8%, down 1.4 percentage points year-on-year, driven by a decrease in expense ratios [7]. - Investment income has also shown robust growth, with total investment income increasing by 26.6% year-on-year, outperforming peers [7]. Financial Overview - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: - 2023: RMB 457,203 million - 2024: RMB 485,223 million - 2025E: RMB 512,327 million - 2026E: RMB 537,740 million - 2027E: RMB 563,012 million - Year-on-year growth rates for revenue are expected to decline gradually from 7.7% in 2023 to 4.7% in 2027 [5][8]. - Net profit estimates are as follows: - 2023: RMB 24,585 million - 2024: RMB 32,173 million - 2025E: RMB 41,278 million - 2026E: RMB 44,756 million - 2027E: RMB 47,883 million - The projected earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is RMB 1.86, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 9.3 [5][8]. Profitability Metrics - The report indicates a return on equity (ROE) of 9% for the first half of 2025, an increase of 1.3 percentage points year-on-year [7]. - The company plans to distribute a mid-term dividend of RMB 0.24 per share, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 15.4% [7]. - The underwriting profit is expected to show significant growth, with a forecasted increase of 167% in 2025 [8][9].
中国人寿(02628):盈利增速较1季度放缓,投资收益表现稳健,上调目标价
BOCOM International· 2025-08-29 08:21
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for China Life Insurance (2628 HK) with a target price raised from HKD 19 to HKD 30, indicating a potential upside of 25.4% [1][5][10]. Core Insights - The company's profit growth has slowed compared to the first quarter, primarily due to fluctuations in market interest rates affecting insurance service performance, although investment income has shown recovery [5]. - Premium income has increased by 7.3% year-on-year, driven by renewal and bancassurance premiums, while new single premiums have decreased by 16.5% [5]. - The new business value has grown by 20.3% year-on-year, with a notable increase in the value rate, indicating improved profitability from new policies [5]. - Investment returns remain stable, with total investment income rising by 4.2% year-on-year, and the proportion of equity investments has increased [5]. Financial Overview - Revenue projections for the years 2023 to 2027 are as follows: RMB 405,040 million in 2023, RMB 528,567 million in 2024, RMB 508,397 million in 2025E, RMB 525,739 million in 2026E, and RMB 545,581 million in 2027E [4][11]. - Net profit estimates are projected at RMB 51,184 million for 2023, RMB 106,935 million for 2024, RMB 94,969 million for 2025E, RMB 104,536 million for 2026E, and RMB 112,912 million for 2027E [4][11]. - The company’s earnings per share (EPS) are expected to be RMB 1.81 in 2023, RMB 3.78 in 2024, RMB 3.36 in 2025E, RMB 3.70 in 2026E, and RMB 3.99 in 2027E [4][11]. Business Performance - The company plans to distribute an interim dividend of RMB 0.238 per share, a 19% increase year-on-year, with a dividend payout ratio of 16.4% [5]. - The new business value for 2025E is projected at RMB 39,257 million, reflecting a 16.5% year-on-year growth [6][7]. - The return on average equity (ROAE) is expected to be 17.7% in 2025E, indicating strong profitability relative to equity [6][11].
信达生物(01801):上市产品销售延续强势,管线全球开发进入关键阶段,上调目标价
BOCOM International· 2025-08-29 03:04
Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a target price raised to HKD 105.00, indicating a potential upside of 15.8% from the current price of HKD 90.65 [1][2][10]. Core Insights - The company's product sales continue to show strong performance, validating its excellent commercialization management and clinical value of its products. The upcoming period (2H25-2026) is expected to bring several research catalysts, including key clinical advancements and data readouts for major products [2][5]. - The company has a robust global pipeline across multiple therapeutic areas, solidifying its long-term leadership position in the industry. The target price has been adjusted upwards based on improved revenue and profit forecasts [5][6]. Financial Performance Summary - **Revenue Forecasts**: The revenue for 2025 is projected at RMB 11,953 million, reflecting a 1.5% increase from previous estimates. For 2026 and 2027, revenues are expected to reach RMB 14,473 million and RMB 17,348 million, respectively, with growth rates of 1.7% and 1.6% [4][11]. - **Profitability Metrics**: The gross profit for 2025 is estimated at RMB 10,157 million, with a gross margin of 85.0%. The net profit is projected to be RMB 1,094 million, showing a significant increase of 45.7% compared to prior forecasts [4][11]. - **Cash Flow and Valuation**: The free cash flow is expected to grow significantly, reaching RMB 3,402 million by 2027. The company's equity value is estimated at RMB 163,494 million, translating to a per-share value of HKD 105.00 [6][12]. Market Position and Growth Strategy - The company has successfully launched five new products this year, expanding its commercial portfolio to 16 products. The management aims for product revenues to exceed RMB 20 billion by 2027 and to have over 20 commercialized products by then [5][11]. - The company is set to initiate several international multi-center Phase III trials, enhancing its global development capabilities. Key trials include PD-1/IL2 dual antibody and CLDN18.2 ADC for various cancers [5][6].
携程集团-S(09961):2季度业绩超预期,内地营销投放效率提升趋势将持续
BOCOM International· 2025-08-29 02:49
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with an updated target price of HKD 653, representing a potential upside of 18.3% from the current price of HKD 552 [2][11]. Core Insights - The company's Q2 performance exceeded expectations, driven by better-than-expected growth in hotel business and an increase in market share. The trend of improving marketing efficiency in mainland China is expected to continue. Despite increased competition in overseas markets, the impact on overall profitability is manageable. The valuation has been rolled forward to 2026, with a target price adjustment based on a 20x P/E ratio for 2026 [2][6]. Financial Performance Summary - For Q2 2025, total revenue reached RMB 14.864 billion, a year-on-year increase of 16%, slightly above market expectations. The hotel segment grew by 21%, transportation by 11%, and vacation services by 5% [6][7]. - The adjusted net profit for Q2 was RMB 4.846 billion, showing a year-on-year increase of 13% [8][14]. - The company expects Q3 revenue to grow by 15%, driven by an 18% increase in hotel bookings, with continued expansion in market share in mainland China [6][8]. Earnings Forecast Changes - Revenue forecasts for 2025E, 2026E, and 2027E are RMB 61.611 billion, RMB 69.659 billion, and RMB 78.590 billion, respectively, with growth rates of 15.4%, 13.1%, and 12.8% [5][14]. - Adjusted operating profit for 2025E is projected at RMB 17.981 billion, with a margin of 29.2% [5][14]. - The adjusted net profit for 2025E is expected to be RMB 17.974 billion, with a net profit margin of 29.2% [5][14]. Market Position and Competitive Landscape - The company is well-positioned in the competitive landscape of the mainland China market, benefiting from effective marketing strategies and a strong recovery in travel demand [2][6]. - The recovery in outbound travel bookings has surpassed pre-pandemic levels, indicating robust growth potential [6][7].
美团-W(03690):外卖竞争大幅影响短期利润,关注长期外卖核心竞争力
BOCOM International· 2025-08-29 02:48
Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for Meituan (3690 HK) with a target price adjusted to HKD 147.00, indicating a potential upside of 44.5% from the current price of HKD 101.70 [1][4][14]. Core Insights - The report highlights that short-term profits are significantly impacted by intense competition in the food delivery sector, while emphasizing the importance of long-term core competitiveness in this area [2]. - Financial projections indicate a revenue growth trajectory, with expected revenues of RMB 276,745 million in 2023, increasing to RMB 455,566 million by 2027, reflecting a compound annual growth rate [3][16]. - The adjusted net profit is projected to decline sharply in 2025 to RMB 556 million, following a substantial increase in 2024 [3][16]. Financial Overview - Revenue (in million RMB) is forecasted as follows: 2023: 276,745, 2024: 337,592, 2025E: 369,226, 2026E: 415,920, 2027E: 455,566, with year-on-year growth rates of 25.8% in 2023 and 22.0% in 2024, tapering to 9.4% in 2025 [3][16]. - The net profit (in million RMB) is expected to be 23,253 in 2023, 43,772 in 2024, and a significant drop to 556 in 2025, before recovering to 31,500 in 2026 and 41,418 in 2027 [3][16]. - The report notes a significant decline in adjusted net profit margin, dropping to 1.6% in 2Q25, down from 16.5% in 2Q24, due to increased competition and marketing expenses [9][11]. Market Position and Strategy - Meituan's core local business is projected to face challenges with revenue growth slowing down due to increased user subsidies aimed at maintaining competitive pricing and delivery efficiency [7][11]. - The report anticipates that the ongoing subsidy war will continue to affect profitability in the coming quarters, with expectations of a loss in the core business segment in Q3 [7][11]. - The new business segment is expected to show strong growth, particularly in the small supermarket sector, with plans for rapid expansion in first- and second-tier cities [7][11]. Valuation and Outlook - The report maintains a long-term positive outlook for Meituan, suggesting that despite short-term profit adjustments, the company's market share and competitive advantages are likely to be sustained [7][11]. - The target price of HKD 147.00 reflects a valuation based on a long-term outlook of 1 billion daily orders in the food delivery segment and a price-to-earnings ratio of 15 times [7][11].