交银国际研究 财务模型更新 | 医药 | 收盘价 | | 目标价 | | 潜在涨幅 | 2025 年 8 月 28 日 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 港元 | | 66.50 | 港元 | 78.00↑ | +17.3% | | | 康诺亚 (2162 HK) | | | | | | | 1H25 核心品种市场渗透加速，差异化布局，上调目标价 司普奇拜单抗首个完整半年商业化成绩优异，TSLP/IL-13 双抗有望成为自免领 域下一代重磅单品，重点布局鼻科适应症。借助强大的临床开发执行力及差 异化显著的多种技术平台，公司跨技术路径、跨疾病领域的多元产品矩阵逐 步成型，并从自免和肿瘤进一步延展至更多大潜力治疗领域。上调目标价。 个股评级 买入 1 年股价表现 资料来源 : FactSet 8/24 12/24 4/25 8/25 -20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 120% 140% 2162 HK 恒生指数 股份资料 | 52周高位 (港元) | 74.75 | | --- | --- | | 52周低位 (港元) | 27 ...

交银国际研究 财务模型更新 | 电池 | 收盘价 | | 目标价 | | 潜在涨幅 | 2025 年 8 月 28 日 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 港元 | | 21.60 | 港元 | 24.77 | +14.7% | | | 中创新航 (3931 HK) | | | | | | | 1H25 盈利能力稳步提升，海外储能和商用车业务迎来突破；维持买入 我们调整了中创新航 （3931 HK） 的盈利预测，基于 DCF 模型，维持目标价 24.77 港元。我们看好海外储能和商用车业务突破后带动电池出货量增长，同 时公司盈利能力稳步提升，维持买入。 angus.chan@bocomgroup.com (86) 21 6065 3601 盈利预测变动 | | | ———— 2025E ———— | | | ———— 2026E ———— | | | ———— 2027E ———— | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | (人民币百万) | 新预测 | 前 ...

交银国际研究 公司更新 业绩稳健，派息回馈持续，维持买入 买入 1 年股价表现 8/24 12/24 4/25 8/25 -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 3808 HK 恒生指数 股份资料 | 重卡 | 收盘价 | | 目标价 | | 潜在涨幅 | 2025 年 8 月 28 日 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 港元 | | 23.32 | 港元 | 26.45 | +13.4% | | | 中国重汽 (3808 HK) | | | | | | | 李柳晓, PhD, CFA joyce.li@bocomgroup.com (852) 3766 1854 财务数据一览 | 年结12月31日 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 收入 (百万人民币) | 85,498 | 95,062 | 109,886 | 114,683 | 120,158 | | 同比增长 (%) | 43.9 | 11. ...

交银国际研究 公司更新 | 消费 | 收盘价 | 目标价 | | 潜在涨幅 | 2025 年 8 月 28 日 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 59.35 | 港元 | 港元 | 84.00↓ | +41.5% | | | 申洲国际 (2313 HK) | | | | | | | 1H25 | | 业绩稳健增长，毛利率恢复需时；维持买入 | | | | 个股评级 买入 1 年股价表现 资料来源 : FactSet 8/24 12/24 4/25 8/25 -40% -30% -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 2313 HK 恒生指数 股份资料 | 52周高位 (港元) | 72.95 | | --- | --- | | 52周低位 (港元) | 46.00 | | 市值 (百万港元) | 89,216.11 | | 日均成交量 (百万) | 12.67 | | 年初至今变化 (%) | (4.27) | | 200天平均价 (港元) | 56.63 | | 资料来源 : FactSet | | 2025上半年业绩稳健增长，毛利 ...

每日晨报 2025 年 8 月 28 日 交银国际研究 今日焦点 | 第四范式 | | 6682 HK | | --- | --- | --- | | 传统行业 | AI 生产力需求提振收入，2025 年扭亏 | 评级: 买入 | | 为盈目标不变；上调目标价 | | | | 收盘价: 港元 63.50 | 目标价: 港元 81.00↑ | 潜在涨幅: +27.6% | | 谷馨瑜,CPA | connie.gu@bocomgroup.com | | 我们上调公司 2025-2027 年收入预期 7-22%，维持 2025 年扭亏、2026 年 微盈利预期。公司持续探索 AI+X，预计到 2029 年，公司收入将达到 200 亿规模，对比 2025 年年化增速 30%，规模化效应持续显现，利润率或达 8-10%。我们将目标价滚动至 2026 年，对应 4 倍市销率，目标价上调至 81 港元，维持公司买入评级。 先知 AI 平台上半年表现超市场预期。公司上半年收入为 26.26 亿元，同 比增速 40.7%，其中先知 AI 平台收入增速达 71.9%。上半年，公司毛利 率 37.7%，对比 2024 年全年的 ...

交银国际研究 公司更新 | 燃气 | 收盘价 | | 目标价 | 潜在涨幅 | 2025 年 8 月 28 日 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 港元 | | 62.95 | 港元 73.66↓ | +17.0% | | | 新奧能源 (2688 HK) | | | | | | 上半年经营偏弱，目前私有化进展顺利 财务数据一览 | 年结12月31日 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 收入 (百万人民币) | 113,858 | 109,853 | 112,647 | 117,572 | 122,689 | | 同比增长 (%) | 3.5 | -3.5 | 2.5 | 4.4 | 4.4 | | 净利润 (百万人民币) | 6,816 | 5,987 | 7,169 | 7,644 | 7,860 | | 每股盈利 (人民币) | 6.71 | 6.14 | 6.34 | 6.76 | 6.95 | | 同比增长 (%) | -4.8 ...

交银国际研究 | 医药 收盘价 | | 目标价 | 潜在涨幅 | 2025 年 8 月 27 日 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 港元 | 3.12 | 港元 3.30↓ | +5.7% | | | 锦欣生殖 (1951 HK) | | | | | 短期业绩压力陡增，业务调整提升股东回报和长期空间，下调至中性 财务数据一览 | 年结12月31日 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 收入 (百万人民币) | 2,789 | 2,812 | 2,617 | 2,989 | 3,330 | | 同比增长 (%) | 18.0 | 0.8 | -6.9 | 14.2 | 11.4 | | 净利润 (百万人民币) | 349 | 283 | (942) | 232 | 313 | | 每股盈利 (人民币) | 0.13 | 0.11 | (0.34) | 0.08 | 0.11 | | 同比增长 (%) | 156.0 | -17.3 | -425.1 | ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a target price of HKD 22.63, indicating a potential upside of 76.5% from the current price of HKD 12.82 [2][3][10]. Core Insights - In the first half of 2025, the company's two-wheeler sales reached 8.794 million units, surpassing the 8.211 million units sold in the same period of 2024, leading to a revenue increase of 33.1% year-on-year to RMB 19.19 billion [2][7]. - The company's gross margin improved to a historical high of 19.6%, up 1.6 percentage points year-on-year, driven by a high-end product strategy and an increase in the proportion of products priced above RMB 3,000 [2][7]. - The implementation of new national standards is expected to enhance industry concentration, benefiting leading companies like this one, which is also well-positioned for overseas expansion [2][7]. Financial Performance Summary - Revenue projections for 2025, 2026, and 2027 have been revised upwards by 2%-4% to RMB 38.51 billion, RMB 43.04 billion, and RMB 46.91 billion respectively [6][11]. - Net profit estimates for the same years have been adjusted upwards by 1%-2% to RMB 3.08 billion, RMB 3.59 billion, and RMB 4.02 billion respectively [6][11]. - The company reported a net profit margin of 8.6% in the first half of 2025, an increase of 1.4 percentage points year-on-year, with operating cash flow of RMB 4.73 billion [2][7].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of HKD 6.60, indicating a potential upside of 33.9% from the current price of HKD 4.93 [3][6]. Core Insights - The company's 1H25 performance met expectations, with revenue increasing by 34.6% year-on-year to RMB 47.57 billion, driven by a 34.2% increase in real estate development revenue [3][4]. - The company is projected to exceed annual sales of RMB 120 billion, with a contract sales increase of 11% year-on-year to RMB 61.5 billion in the first half of 2025, achieving 51% of the annual sales target [3][4]. - The financing cost has decreased, with an average financing cost down by 41 basis points to 3.16%, and further reductions are expected in the second half of the year [3]. Financial Performance Summary - Revenue for 1H25 reached RMB 47.57 billion, with real estate development and management revenues at RMB 44.03 billion and RMB 1.61 billion, respectively [3][4]. - Core net profit decreased by 12.7% year-on-year to RMB 1.52 billion, aligning with previous forecasts [3][4]. - The gross profit margin fell by 3.1 percentage points to 10.6%, slightly below the predicted range of 12%-13% [3][4]. Sales and Market Position - The company has a total of RMB 2.35 trillion in saleable resources, with over RMB 400 billion expected to be recognized in the second half of 2025 [3]. - As of June 2025, the company had RMB 1.49 trillion in sold but unrecognized revenue, with approximately 29% and 38% located in the Greater Bay Area and East China, respectively [3]. Debt and Liquidity - Operating cash inflow for the first half of 2025 was approximately RMB 4.1 billion, with total borrowings remaining stable at RMB 103.9 billion [3][4]. - The net debt ratio slightly decreased by 1.4 percentage points to 40.3% as of June 2025 [3][4].

Group 1: Pinduoduo (PDD US) - 2Q profit exceeded expectations mainly due to interest income and better-than-expected marketing expenses. Advertising revenue grew by 13% year-on-year, in line with expectations, while commission income slowed due to the contraction of full-service business and reduced growth in merchant support programs [1] - Despite maintaining support for merchants and user investments in the second half of the year, the impact of merchant support programs and national subsidies is expected to improve marginally. The overseas business disruptions are also anticipated to be less severe than in 2Q [1] - Based on the better-than-expected 2Q performance, the profit forecast for 2025 has been raised by 4%, and the valuation has been adjusted to 2026, with the target price increased from $135 to $150, corresponding to an 11x P/E ratio for 2026 [1] Group 2: Yadea Group Holdings (1585 HK) - In 1H25, two-wheeler sales returned to normal rhythm, and gross margin reached a record high. Revenue for 1H25 was CNY 19.19 billion, up 33.1% year-on-year, aligning with market expectations [4] - The sales volume of electric bicycles and scooters increased to 8.794 million units, surpassing the same period in 2024. The gross margin improved by 1.6 percentage points to 19.6%, setting a historical high [5] - The new national standard will be implemented on September 1, 2025, marking the start of a new industry cycle. Revenue forecasts for 2025-27 have been raised by 2%-4%, and net profit estimates have been adjusted upward by 1%-2% [5] Group 3: Deqi Pharmaceutical (6996 HK) - CLDN18.2 ADC data further confirms its potential as a best-in-class treatment, with larger sample clinical data showing improved response rates. The drug has received breakthrough therapy designation in mainland China for treating CLDN18.2 positive, HER2 negative gastric cancer [8] - The management maintains a forecast for global peak sales exceeding $5 billion, with ongoing development plans for various indications [8][9] - The target price has been raised to HKD 8.80, reflecting a nearly 30% increase in long-term sales forecasts for ATG022 [9] Group 4: Rongchang Biopharmaceutical (9995 HK) - In 1H25, the company reported a revenue increase of 47.6% to CNY 1.09 billion, with a gross margin improvement of 7.3 percentage points to 84.4%. The loss in 2Q was narrowed compared to previous periods [10] - The management expects product sales to grow by over 30% for the full year, aiming for breakeven in 2026 and profitability in 2027 [10][11] - The target price has been raised to HKD 103, reflecting the strong growth trajectory and potential of core assets [11] Group 5: Sunshine Power (300274 CH) - The company reported 2Q25 revenue and profit of CNY 24.5 billion and CNY 3.91 billion, respectively, with year-on-year growth of 33% and 37%, significantly exceeding market expectations [16] - The improvement in the US tariff situation since May has positively impacted the company's outlook, particularly for energy storage demand [16][17] - The target price has been raised to CNY 119, indicating a potential upside of 16% [17] Group 6: Junda Co., Ltd. (002865 CH) - The company reported a loss of CNY 158 million in 2Q25, slightly exceeding the forecasted median loss, with a gross margin of -2.1% [18] - Recent government initiatives to regulate the photovoltaic industry signal increased certainty in supply-side reforms, which may benefit the company [18] - The target price has been raised to CNY 57.70, reflecting improved market conditions and valuation [18]