交银国际研究 每日晨报 2025 年 7 月 10 日 今日焦点 | 汽车行业月报 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 6 月新能源车渗透率升至 | 53.3%；预计 7 月车市 | 评级: | 领先 | | 增速平稳 | | | | | 陈庆 | angus.chan@bocomgroup.com | | | 资料来源： FactSet | 主要商品及外汇价格 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 三个月 | 年初至 | | | 收盘价 | 升跌% | 今升跌 | | 布兰特 | 70.17 | 7.36 | -5.91% | | 期金 | 3,307.00 | 8.20 | 25.78 | | 期银 | 36.25 | 20.10 | 25.39 | | 期铜 | 9,925.00 | 13.30 | 14.00 | | 日圆 | 146.47 | -1.16 | 7.30 | | 英镑 | 1.36 | 6.53 | 8.51 | | 欧元 | 1.17 | 6.13 | 13.14 | | 基点变动 | | 三个月 六个月 ...

Industry Investment Rating - The automotive industry is rated as "Leading" [1] Core Insights - In June, the penetration rate of new energy vehicles (NEVs) rose to 53.3%, with expectations for stable growth in the car market in July [1][4] - Retail sales of passenger cars in June reached 2.084 million units, representing a year-on-year increase of 18.1% [4] - Domestic brands outperformed the overall industry, with retail sales of 1.34 million units in June, a year-on-year increase of 30% [4] - The export of passenger cars showed a slowdown, but NEV exports maintained good growth, accounting for 41.1% of total exports in June [4] Summary by Relevant Sections Market Performance - The passenger car market in June showed a positive trend, benefiting from consumer promotion policies and financial support [4] - The cumulative retail sales of passenger cars in the first half of the year reached 10.901 million units, up 10.8% year-on-year [4] New Energy Vehicles - The NEV penetration rate for the first half of 2025 reached 50.1%, with June sales of 1.111 million units, a year-on-year increase of 29.7% [4] - Domestic brands accounted for 75.4% of the NEV penetration rate in June, with a market share of 71% [4] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies like BYD (1211 HK), XPeng Motors (9868 HK), and Geely (175 HK) due to their expected growth in sales and profitability [4]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is downgraded to "Neutral" from a previous rating due to limited valuation attractiveness after a significant stock price increase [2][7]. Core Views - The approval of a private placement will alleviate the company's financial pressure, with plans to raise RMB 3.5 billion, primarily for a solar cell project [7]. - The company is expected to significantly reduce losses in Q2 2025 due to a higher sales proportion of premium BC components in overseas markets [7]. - The supply side of the photovoltaic industry is anticipated to improve following recent government meetings aimed at regulating low-price competition and enhancing product quality [7]. - The target price for the company has been raised to RMB 16.50, reflecting an increase in valuation from 14 times to 18 times the 2026 earnings [7]. Financial Overview - Revenue projections show a decline in 2023 to RMB 27,170 million, followed by a significant drop in 2024 to RMB 11,155 million, before rebounding to RMB 22,800 million in 2025 [3][11]. - Net profit is expected to be negative in 2024 at RMB (5,319) million, with a gradual recovery projected in subsequent years, reaching RMB 2,622 million by 2027 [3][11]. - The company's earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to be negative in 2024 at RMB (2.91), with a return to positive EPS of RMB 1.43 by 2027 [3][11]. - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is projected to be 35.3 in 2023, with a significant drop to 10.2 by 2027, indicating a potential recovery in profitability [3][11]. Stock Performance - The stock has shown a year-to-date increase of 32.76%, with a 52-week high of RMB 16.49 and a low of RMB 7.39 [6][10]. - The average daily trading volume is reported at 78.98 million shares, indicating active trading interest [6].

Group 1: Company Overview - The report highlights that the company, Aisuo Co., Ltd. (爱旭股份), has received approval for a private placement of funds, which is expected to alleviate its financial pressure significantly [1] - The company's asset-liability ratio reached 86.0% in Q1 2025, and the estimated fundraising of 3.5 billion RMB is projected to reduce this ratio by 9.6 percentage points [1] - Following a 40% increase in stock price since the rating upgrade on April 30, the report suggests that the current valuation is no longer attractive, leading to a downgrade to a neutral rating [1] Group 2: Market Performance - The report anticipates that over 40% of the company's ABC components will be sold in higher-priced overseas markets in Q2, which is expected to significantly reduce losses for the quarter [1] - Recent statements from central government officials emphasize the orderly exit of outdated production capacity, indicating a potential turning point for the photovoltaic supply side [1] Group 3: Stock and Valuation - The closing price of Aisuo Co., Ltd. is reported at 14.63 RMB, with a target price raised to 16.50 RMB, indicating a potential upside of 12.8% [1] - The report notes that further valuation improvement is contingent upon the implementation of substantial policies [1]

Group 1: Core Insights - Meituan's daily order volume for instant retail exceeded 120 million, with food delivery surpassing 100 million and Meituan Flash Purchase exceeding 20 million [1][2] - The company has increased its delivery subsidies in June, leading to an estimated 16% year-on-year decline in CLC operating profit, but food delivery order growth is expected to rise from mid-single digits to 10% [1][2] - Despite ongoing subsidy wars, Meituan is likely to maintain operational profit stability, with a target price of HKD 165, indicating a potential upside of 36.6% from the current price of HKD 120.80 [1][2] Group 2: Financial Projections - The average order value (AOV) may decline due to the subsidy competition, which could further slow revenue growth [2] - CLC revenue growth is projected to remain at 10% year-on-year, with profits expected to decrease by 9% [2] - The closure of Meituan Youxuan's loss-making areas could release approximately 3-4 billion yuan to support future delivery subsidies [2] Group 3: Market Position - Meituan continues to hold a leading position in the food delivery market, with strong operational capabilities and a high likelihood of maintaining market share [1][2] - The company’s operational and dispatch efficiency remains crucial for sustaining its market dominance [2]

交银国际研究 公司更新 | 互联网 | 收盘价 | | 目标价 | | 潜在涨幅 | 2025 年 7 月 7 日 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 港元 | | 120.80 | 港元 | 165.00 | +36.6% | | | 美团 (3690 HK) | | | | | | | 外卖日单峰值突破 1 亿，运营能力仍有优势，维持买入 财务数据一览 | 年结12月31日 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 收入 (百万人民币) | 276,745 | 337,592 | 386,213 | 437,899 | 474,235 | | 同比增长 (%) | 25.8 | 22.0 | 14.4 | 13.4 | 8.3 | | 净利润 (百万人民币) | 23,253 | 43,772 | 43,485 | 58,982 | 66,969 | | 每股盈利 (人民币) | 3.71 | 7.00 | 7.01 | 9.51 ...

Global Macro - Strong non-farm payroll data supports the Federal Reserve's wait-and-see stance, with June non-farm employment increasing by 147,000, exceeding market expectations of 110,000. The unemployment rate unexpectedly fell to 4.1% [1][2] - Average hourly wage growth year-on-year decreased to 3.7%, with a month-on-month increase slowing to 0.2%. This strong employment data reduces the urgency for interest rate cuts in the short term [1][2] Automotive Industry - XPeng Motors launched the G7 model at a starting price of 195,800 yuan, which is 40,000 yuan lower than the pre-sale price, exceeding expectations [3] - The G7 focuses on family comfort and smart technology, showcasing competitive advantages in the mid-to-high-end pure electric SUV market compared to competitors like Model Y and Xiaomi YU7 [3][6] - XPeng's sales in the first half of 2025 exceeded 197,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 279%, achieving 56% of its annual target. The G7's launch is expected to sustain sales growth in the second half of the year [6] Internet Industry - Tencent's mobile game revenue is expected to grow by 17% in Q2, while NetEase's mobile game revenue shows positive year-on-year growth, with domestic revenue increasing by 4% [9][10] - The performance of Tencent's games was impacted by a high base from previous releases, while new games like "Delta Action" and established titles contributed to mitigating losses [10] Economic Data - Upcoming economic data releases include U.S. consumer credit and unemployment claims, as well as China's consumer price index and trade surplus figures [11]

交银国际研究 宏观策略 2025 年 7 月 4 日 全球宏观 劳动力参与率三连降推动失业率意外放缓。6 月新增就业呈现出明显的结构性 特征：政府裁员、人工智能发展驱使科技行业主动裁员，压缩了对行政类和高 技能劳动者的需求。另一方面，特朗普政府收紧移民政策削弱了低技能劳动力 供给，使得部分服务型、劳动密集型行业面临人手短缺。新增移民锐减趋势 下，劳动力供给的减少意味着失业率分母基数的下降，也解释了为何在新增就 业放缓的背景下，失业率仍能从 4.2%回落至 4.1%，主要是由于劳动参与率 （由 4 月的 62.6%放缓至 6 月的 62.3%）下降而非就业需求的实质性改善。 后市观察：当前的经济数据格局为美联储维持观望立场提供了充分支撑。尽管 特朗普持续施压要求降息，并尽早提名新的美联储主席，且美联储主席鲍威尔 本周虽然表示 7 月降息选项"未排除"，但这更多是一种策略性表态，而非政 策立场的实质性转变。从技术层面看，领先指标的初请失业金人数仍维持在相 对较低位置，劳动力市场韧性依然存在。美联储当前的核心关切仍是防范通胀 风险，特别是关税政策可能带来的夏季价格上涨压力。在经济基本面尚能承 受、劳动力市场保持相对 ...

交银国际研究 消息快报 汽车 2025 年 7 月 4 日 小鹏汽车 (9868 HK) G7 新车型起售价 19.58 万元性价比凸显，智能化有望助其突围 此报告最后部分的分析师披露、商业关系披露和免责声明为报告的一部分，必须阅读。 下载本公司之研究报告，可从彭博信息：BOCM 或 https://research.bocomgroup.com 陈庆 angus.chan@bocomgroup.com (86) 21 6065 3601 李柳晓, PhD, CFA joyce.li@bocomgroup.com (86) 21 6065 3601 事件：7 月 3 日，小鹏 G7 正式上市。新车共推出 3 款车型，小鹏 G7 Ultra 售 价 22.58 万元（人民币，下同），702km 续航 Max 版本售价 20.58 万元， 602km 续航 Max 版本售价 19.58 万元，其中 702km 版本将优先交付。上市起 售价较预售价 23.58 万元降低 4 万元，降价幅度超我们预期。 对比同价位车型，小鹏 G7 聚焦家用、舒适与智能科技，性价比凸显，在中高 端纯电 SUV 市场中展现出差异化竞争力 ...

交银国际研究 每日晨报 2025 年 7 月 4 日 今日焦点 | 港股策略 | | 全球主要指数 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 从多空两维看港股配置方向 | | 宏观策略 | | | 年初至今 | | 李少金 | Evan.Li@bocomgroup.com | | 收盘价 | 升跌% | 升跌% | | | | 恒指 | 24,070 | -0.71 | 16.49 | 2025 上半年港股表现亮眼，恒指和恒生科技指数分别录得 20%和 18.7% 的半年度收益，位居全球主要股指前列。本篇报告从内外资配置偏好变 化以及卖空仓位分布等维度，系统梳理资金流向的一致性与分歧点： 南向资金：均衡配置中的结构性倾斜。南向资金年初至今对港股各板块 持仓均有提升，板块轮动更为显著，从 1 季度的信息技术，再到 2 季度 初的新消费，以及近一个月的主力配置方向集中在医疗保健和金融板块。 外资：聚焦科技。相比之下，外资仅边际主动提升信息技术板块仓位， 其他板块持仓市值多数下降。对科技板块的偏好选择可能反映其对港股 科技企业长期竞争力和估值修复空间的看好。 卖 ...