Group 1: Company Overview - The first quarter operating performance of Tmall International (6110 HK) met expectations, with total sales in retail and wholesale businesses declining in the mid-single digits year-on-year, continuing the trend from the previous quarter [1] - The company maintains guidance for flat profit for the full year, with a downward revision of 22% in net profit forecasts for FY2026-27 due to a lack of recovery momentum in the sports goods market and ongoing promotional environment [1][2] - The target price has been adjusted down to HKD 2.98, corresponding to a 13x FY2026 P/E ratio, while maintaining a neutral rating [1] Group 2: Industry Insights - The offline customer traffic remains weak, with a double-digit decline continuing from the previous quarter, while online channels performed better, increasing the direct online sales proportion to 40% in Q1 [2] - The promotional atmosphere in the industry remains strong, with expectations of slow sales recovery in the coming quarters and a downward adjustment of revenue forecasts for FY2026-27 by 6-8% to RMB 25.86 billion and RMB 26.72 billion respectively [2] - In the renewable energy sector, significant increases in new installations were observed in May, with solar and wind power installations rising by 388% and 801% year-on-year, respectively [3] - The cumulative new installation capacity for wind and solar energy in the first five months of the year reached 47% and 73% of expectations, respectively, with a forecast for wind power installations to peak in December [3]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to several companies in the renewable energy sector, including China Power (2380 HK), Jingneng Clean Energy (579 HK), Longyuan Power (916 HK), and others, indicating a positive outlook for their stock performance [10]. Core Insights - The report highlights a significant surge in new installations of solar and wind energy in China, with solar power installations increasing by 388% year-on-year and wind power installations by 801% in May 2025. The solar installation reached a record high of 92.9 GW, while wind power installations totaled 26 GW, reflecting a strong demand ahead of regulatory changes [1]. - The report anticipates a rationalization of installation demand in the second half of the year, following a rush to complete projects before the June 1 deadline set by regulatory changes [1]. - It is expected that the monthly solar installation will see a noticeable year-on-year decline starting in June, while wind power installations are projected to peak again in December 2025, albeit at a lower level than the previous year [1]. Summary by Sections Solar Energy - The report indicates that the demand for solar installations has been significantly pulled forward, with 73% of the annual target achieved by May 2025. A decline in monthly installations is expected from June onwards due to changes in the pricing model for distributed solar projects [1][6]. - The report maintains a forecast for a year-on-year decrease of 3% in solar installations for 2025 [1]. Wind Energy - Wind energy installations have reached 47% of the annual target by May 2025, with a more moderate expected decline in monthly installations compared to solar energy. The report predicts another peak in December 2025, estimating a peak installation of approximately 19-20 GW, which would be a 30% decrease from the previous year [1][6]. Stock Recommendations - The report favors high dividend-yielding operators, recommending stocks such as China Power and Jingneng Clean Energy, which have dividend yields greater than 6% [1]. Other recommended stocks include Longyuan Power, Datang Renewable, and several solar manufacturing companies, all rated as "Buy" [10].

Group 1: Core Insights - The report highlights that Bubble Mart's Labubu continues to break boundaries, driving strong performance growth, and the profit forecast has been raised, maintaining a "Buy" rating [1] - The closing price is HKD 247.40, with a target price raised to HKD 300.00, indicating a potential upside of 21.3% [1] - The overseas expansion momentum is strong, with the overseas market experiencing explosive growth driven by core IP new products since Q2 2025 [1][2] Group 2: Financial Projections - Revenue and profit forecasts for 2025-27 have been significantly raised by 31-40% based on recent strong sales trends, particularly in North America [2] - The gross margin forecast for 2025-27 has been increased by 1.8-2.2 percentage points, and the net profit forecast for the same period has been raised by 58%-70% to RMB 74.5-129.7 billion, corresponding to a compound annual growth rate of 61% [2] - The successful launch of Labubu 3.0 has further driven product popularity among overseas consumers, showcasing strong growth in markets like North America and Southeast Asia [2]

交银国际研究 每日晨报 2025 年 6 月 25 日 今日焦点 | 互联网行业 | | --- | | 互联网平台布局大消费，整合资源，高效优化 | | 用户体验 | 谷馨瑜, CPA connie.gu@bocomgroup.com 事件：近日，阿里饿了么、飞猪并入阿里电商事业群。美团升级美团闪 购品牌。 阿里从电商平台向生活消费平台迈进，聚合即时零售、电商及旅游需 求，提升淘宝用户粘性，从而提升全平台全品类转化率，并已初见成 效。 美团优选退出部分亏损区域，聚焦闪购即时零售、小象超市前置仓，美 团亦形成即时零售、电商及本地生活全链条消费平台。我们认为美团外 卖虽面临较激烈竞争，但考虑到美团在商户运营，及运力储备仍领先， 我们预计外卖行业 GMV 口径市占率预计仍将维持美团：饿了么约 6： 3。 投资启示：阿里、美团通过整合资源，聚焦重要业务赛道，实现高效扩 张。阿里聚焦电商及云业务，按行业平均 8 倍市盈率及 5 倍云业务市销 率，阿里云现价对应估值有强支撑。我们观察美团外卖补贴策略调整与 商家运营亦有较大关系，美团现价对应 2025 年市盈率为 17 倍，建议关 注补贴策略调整带来的利润扭转机会。 | ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for Alibaba, Meituan, and JD.com, indicating a positive outlook for these companies in the internet sector [5]. Core Insights - The internet industry is witnessing a trend where platforms are integrating resources to enhance user experience and expand into large consumer markets. Alibaba is transitioning from an e-commerce platform to a comprehensive lifestyle consumption platform, while Meituan is focusing on instant retail and local life services [1][5]. - Alibaba's Taobao has significantly increased its investment in instant retail, achieving over 6 million daily orders by June 23, 2025, with a notable 75% of these being non-beverage orders. This strategy aims to enhance user stickiness and overall conversion rates across the platform [1]. - Meituan is adjusting its strategy by exiting loss-making areas and concentrating on instant retail and local services, with projected growth in order volume and revenue for the second quarter of 2025 [1]. Summary by Sections Business Updates - Recent announcements from major internet platforms include JD.com's entry into the OTA market and Alibaba's integration of Ele.me and Fliggy into its e-commerce division. Meituan is expanding its instant retail offerings and exploring new business models [1]. Financial Projections - The report estimates Alibaba's profit for the fiscal year 2026 to exceed 200 billion RMB, while Meituan's local business profit is expected to remain stable compared to 2024. Meituan's revenue growth is projected at 7% for instant retail and 10% for local business [1][5]. Market Positioning - The report highlights that Alibaba and Meituan are effectively leveraging resource integration to focus on key business areas, which is expected to drive efficient expansion. The market share for Meituan in the food delivery sector is anticipated to maintain a ratio of 6:3 against Ele.me [1].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report is that the company, Xin Ye Technology (FINV US), plans to issue $130 million in convertible notes due in 2030, with a coupon rate of 2.5%, to support its international business expansion [1][2] - 40% of the funds raised from the convertible notes will be used for share buybacks, while the remaining funds will primarily facilitate the company's overseas business growth [2] - The issuance of convertible notes is expected to result in a potential net increase in share capital of 2.3%, with minimal dilution impact due to cost savings [2] Group 2 - The company's international business is experiencing strong growth momentum, and the issuance of convertible notes is expected to accelerate the development of its overseas operations [2] - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of HKD 13 [2]

Group 1: Convertible Notes Issuance - The company plans to issue $130 million in convertible notes maturing in 2030, with an option for initial buyers to purchase up to $20 million more under a greenshoe option[1] - 40% of the raised funds, amounting to $60 million, will be used for stock buybacks at a price of $9.51 per ADS, reducing share capital by 2.5%[1] - The initial conversion price is set at $12.36 per ADS, allowing for a conversion ratio of 80.8865 ADS for every $1,000 principal[1] Group 2: Impact on International Business - The funds raised will primarily support international business expansion, which has higher loan rates and take rates[1] - The company expects a 10-15% year-over-year growth in net income by 2025, with international revenue projected to account for 25% of total income[1] - By 2030, the target is for international business to represent 50% of total revenue[1] Group 3: Dilution and Ratings - The potential dilution effect from the convertible notes issuance is estimated at 4.8%, offset by the 2.5% reduction from stock buybacks, resulting in a net increase of 2.3% in share capital[1] - The company maintains a "Buy" rating with a target price of HKD 13, reflecting a potential upside of 40.5% from the current price of $9.25[4]

Group 1: Internet Industry - JD.com has launched the "Hotel PLUS Membership Program," allowing participating hotels to enjoy up to three years of zero commission, indicating JD's further expansion into local life services after its food delivery business reached a peak order volume of 25 million on June 1 [1] - The overlap in customer demographics between JD's food delivery and hotel services may significantly impact Ctrip, while Meituan and Tongcheng may be more affected in local consumption scenarios; however, Ctrip's supply chain barriers and Meituan's advantages in lower-tier markets are difficult to disrupt in the short term [1] - The difficulty in shaking up the OTA competitive landscape is higher than in the food delivery sector due to the low-frequency nature of travel consumption and the challenges in system integration and customer service capabilities [1] Group 2: Market Performance - The current price-to-earnings ratios for JD.com, Meituan, Ctrip, and Tongcheng are 7.5x, 17.9x, 15.9x, and 12.5x respectively, all at historical lows, highlighting the need to monitor the impact of competitive dynamics on short-term profits [2] - During the 2025 618 shopping festival, both Taobao and JD.com experienced accelerated growth in transaction volume and a double-digit increase in active users, driven by government subsidies and platform discounts [3] - The total funding support for consumer goods replacement programs reached 1,620 billion yuan in January and April, with an additional 1,380 billion yuan expected to be disbursed in the third and fourth quarters, which is anticipated to stabilize consumption in the second half of the year [3] Group 3: Economic Data - The manufacturing purchasing managers' index (PMI) for the U.S. is expected to be released on June 23, with a previous reading of 52.00, while China's PMI for June is anticipated to be 49.50 [6] - The U.S. durable goods orders for May are expected to show a year-on-year decline of 6.30%, while the first quarter GDP growth rate is projected to be -0.20% compared to the previous 2.40% [6]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is Neutral with a target price of HKD 6.70, indicating a potential downside of 11.4% from the current price of HKD 7.56 [4][17]. Core Insights - The company is expected to experience a decline in profit for the fiscal year 2025 due to the impact of a warm winter, with a focus on the certainty of profit improvement in the following year [2][7]. - The forecast for fiscal year 2025 has been adjusted downwards by approximately 2% to reflect the impact of the warm winter on gas sales volume, with an expected core profit decrease of 6.4% to HKD 3.712 billion [7][8]. - The company anticipates a slight increase in retail gas volume of about 1% year-on-year, which is below the company's guidance of 2% [7][8]. Financial Overview - Revenue is projected to decline from HKD 91,988 million in 2023 to HKD 75,183 million in 2025, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 7.6% [3][18]. - Net profit is expected to decrease from HKD 4,293 million in 2023 to HKD 3,712 million in 2025, with a year-on-year decline of 6.4% [3][18]. - The earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to drop from HKD 0.76 in 2023 to HKD 0.68 in 2025, indicating a decrease of 6.4% [3][18]. Operational Insights - The company expects retail gas volume to grow by 2% year-on-year in fiscal year 2026, with a projected gas margin increase to RMB 0.54 per cubic meter [7][10]. - The number of new residential connections is anticipated to decline by approximately 21% to 1.25 million households in fiscal year 2025 [7][9]. - The company maintains a dividend of HKD 0.35 for the final period, with an annual payout of HKD 0.50 [7][8]. Valuation Metrics - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is projected to be 11.1 times for fiscal year 2025, with an expected price-to-book (P/B) ratio of 0.75 [3][18]. - The company has a dividend yield of 6.6%, which is considered defensive [7][8]. - The target price has been adjusted to HKD 6.70 from the previous HKD 5.92, reflecting a more favorable valuation compared to other gas companies [7][8].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to major companies in the internet sector, including Alibaba, JD.com, Meituan, and Pinduoduo, indicating expected total returns above the relevant industry benchmarks [6]. Core Insights - The report highlights significant growth during the 618 shopping festival, driven by government subsidies, platform promotions, and increased user engagement through instant retail [1][2]. - Alibaba's Tmall saw 453 brands achieve over 100 million RMB in sales, a 24% year-on-year increase, with a notable 116% increase in sales driven by government subsidies [2][3]. - JD.com reported a 100% increase in order numbers compared to the previous year, with over 22 billion total orders during the event, marking a historical high in daily active users [2][3]. - Meituan's flash sales achieved record transaction volumes, with over 1 billion users placing orders, and significant growth in high-ticket categories [2][3]. - Pinduoduo's investment in consumer incentives led to a doubling of sales in various categories, particularly among younger consumers [2][3]. Summary by Sections Alibaba - As of June 18, 2025, Tmall had 453 brands with sales exceeding 100 million RMB, a 24% increase year-on-year [2][3]. - The number of purchasing users grew in double digits, with 88VIP membership surpassing 50 million [2][3]. - The platform's GMV, excluding refunds, increased by 10%, the highest growth in three years [2][3]. JD.com - From May 30 to June 18, 2025, JD.com experienced a 100% increase in order numbers, with total orders exceeding 22 billion [2][3]. - The app's daily active users reached a historical high of 212 million, a 51.2% year-on-year increase [2][3]. - The cross-selling between delivery and retail boosted PLUS membership registrations significantly [2][3]. Meituan - Meituan's flash sales achieved record highs, with over 60 categories and 850 brands doubling their sales [2][3]. - High-ticket items like electronics and alcohol saw sales increase by 10 to 11 times year-on-year [2][3]. - The platform's user spending per order increased by 40% year-on-year [2][3]. Pinduoduo - Pinduoduo's "100 billion support" initiative led to a doubling of sales in seasonal fruits and significant growth in electronics [2][3]. - The platform's government subsidy section expanded to 23 regions, with sales of subsidized products increasing by 177% [2][3].