Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [4][10]. Core Views - The company is expected to see a significant quarter-on-quarter increase in performance for Q2, with estimated earnings of RMB 230-280 million for 1H25, and RMB 120-170 million for Q2, representing a 41% increase from the previous quarter [2][7]. - The report anticipates a recovery in product prices following substantial industry production cuts, which are expected to lead to a bottoming out of prices for photovoltaic glass [7][8]. - The company has a production capacity of 2,000 tons of photovoltaic glass in Vietnam, which is significant for exports to the U.S. The report suggests monitoring the progress of trade agreements between the U.S. and Vietnam, as a reduction in tariffs could benefit the company's operations [7][8]. - The report maintains a positive outlook on the photovoltaic supply side, citing recent government meetings aimed at regulating the industry and promoting the exit of outdated production capacity [7][8]. Financial Overview - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: RMB 21,524 million in 2023, RMB 18,683 million in 2024, RMB 16,543 million in 2025E, RMB 20,822 million in 2026E, and RMB 23,232 million in 2027E, with a year-on-year growth of 39.2% in 2023, followed by declines in 2024 and 2025, and recoveries in subsequent years [3][11]. - Net profit is projected to be RMB 2,760 million in 2023, dropping to RMB 1,007 million in 2024, and further to RMB 340 million in 2025E, before rebounding to RMB 1,828 million in 2026E and RMB 2,368 million in 2027E [3][11]. - The earnings per share (EPS) are expected to be RMB 1.17 in 2023, decreasing to RMB 0.43 in 2024, and RMB 0.15 in 2025E, with a significant recovery anticipated in 2026E and 2027E [3][11]. - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is projected to be 7.8 in 2023, increasing to 21.2 in 2024, and then to 62.6 in 2025E, before stabilizing in the following years [3][11]. Market Performance - The company's stock price has shown a year-to-date change of -8.88%, with a 52-week high of HKD 15.84 and a low of HKD 7.75 [6][10]. - The average daily trading volume is reported at 10.68 million shares [6].

交银国际研究 行业更新 行业评级 领先 万丽, CFA, FRM wanli@bocomgroup.com (86) 10 8393 5331 从公布业绩预告的券商来看，2 季度业绩仍保持强劲增长，增速超我们预 期。目前已有 24 家 A 股上市券商发布中报业绩预告，2025 年上半年盈利 同比增长区间在 65%-80%（扣除合并产生的负商誉），平均增长 72%；2 季度环比 1 季度增长 13%。从头部券商来看，国泰海通同比增长超 200% （扣除合并产生的负商誉后约为41%），银河同比增长45-55%，中金同比 增长 55-78%，中信建投同比增长 55-60%。 我们预计上半年经纪业务在去年同期低基数上显著回升。2025 年上半年 A 股日均成交金额为 1.36 万亿元，同比增长 58.8%，其中 1 季度同比增长 68.7%，2 季度同比增长 50.1%。 3 季度仍面临低基数，预计增速将进一步 提升。 我们预计自营投资收益同比显著增长，仍是券商盈利增长的主要推动因 素。从股票市场指数表现来看，上半年总体表现较为平稳，相比 2024 年 同期改善显著，沪深 300 基本较年初持平，上证综指微涨 2.8 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to China Biologic Products (1177 HK) with a target price of HKD 8.00, indicating a potential upside of 17.3% from the current price of HKD 6.82 [4][10][15]. Core Insights - The acquisition of Lixin Pharmaceutical for USD 5 billion is expected to enhance the company's differentiated pipeline assets and technology platforms, leading to an upward revision of the target price [2][7]. - The integration of Lixin's four unique technology platforms is anticipated to accelerate the development of China Biologic's self-researched products, with significant potential contributions to revenue growth [7][10]. - The report highlights that Lixin has eight drug candidates in clinical stages, including promising candidates with licensing agreements worth up to USD 4 billion with major pharmaceutical companies [7][10]. Financial Overview - Revenue projections for China Biologic Products are as follows: - 2023: RMB 26,199 million - 2024: RMB 28,866 million - 2025E: RMB 34,175 million (growth of 18.4%) - 2026E: RMB 38,706 million (growth of 13.3%) - 2027E: RMB 43,606 million (growth of 12.7%) [3][16]. - Net profit estimates are projected to increase from RMB 2,332 million in 2023 to RMB 5,340 million by 2027, reflecting a significant growth trajectory [3][16]. - The report also notes an adjustment in the net profit forecast for 2025-2027, with an increase of 6-10% due to cost reduction efforts [7][9]. Valuation Model - The DCF valuation model estimates the equity value of China Biologic Products at HKD 8.00 per share, based on projected free cash flows and a perpetual growth rate of 2% [10][11]. - The enterprise value is calculated at RMB 152,132 million, with a net cash position of RMB 2,478 million [10][11]. Market Performance - The stock has shown a year-to-date increase of 113.13%, with a 52-week high of HKD 6.82 and a low of HKD 2.73 [6][10].

交银国际研究 每日晨报 2025 年 7 月 18 日 今日焦点 | 台积电 | | TSM US | | --- | --- | --- | | 毛利率韧性强，管理层上调全年收入预期；上调 | | 评级: 买入 | | 目标价 | | | | 收盘价: 美元 237.56 | 目标价: 美元 280.00↑ | 潜在涨幅: +17.9% | | 王大卫, PhD, CFA | Dawei.wang@bocomgroup.com | | 管理层上调全年收入预期，毛利率表现出较强韧性：毛利率 58.6%，高于我 们 1Q25 之后 58.4%的预期和 58%的指引中位数。我们认为台积电毛利韧性 远强于市场预期。管理层将全年按美元计收入同比增速指引从之前的 25%左 右（我们预计 27.1%）上调到 30%。 台积电管理层暗示新指引或仍然"保 守"。 AI 芯片出口限制放松利好先进制程需求，2 纳米制程和亚利桑那厂进展顺利： 管理层认为美政府放松 AI 芯片限制进一步加大 AI 芯片需求。2 纳米制程或 在 2H25 上量生产，管理层重申上量进度与 3 纳米上量进度相似且 2 纳米流 片数大于同期 3/5 纳米流 ...

Group 1: Anta Sports Products (2020 HK) - The second quarter revenue met expectations, with management reaffirming the annual guidance for 2025, indicating low single-digit, mid single-digit, and 50-55% year-on-year revenue growth for Anta, FILA, and other brands respectively [3] - Despite intense industry competition, management maintains growth guidance for all brands, expecting high single-digit, mid single-digit, and over 30% year-on-year growth for Anta, FILA, and other brands respectively [3] - The forecast for net profit from 2025 to 2027 is projected to be between RMB 13.41 billion and RMB 16.54 billion, with a target price of HKD 110.20 based on a 20x P/E ratio for 2026, maintaining a buy rating [3][4] Group 2: Junda Co., Ltd. (002865 CH) - The company expects a loss of RMB 0.94 billion to RMB 1.94 billion in Q2 2025, which is an increase from the loss of RMB 1.06 billion in Q1 2025, primarily due to a decline in battery prices following a surge in installations in mainland China [5] - Junda has signed a strategic cooperation agreement with Turkey and Europe's largest photovoltaic module manufacturer to jointly build a solar cell production base with a capacity of up to 5GW [5] - The outlook remains positive for the company, anticipating a turnaround in performance in 2026 driven by the commencement of production in Oman and supply-side reforms [5] Group 3: E-commerce Industry - In Q2 2025, adjusted year-on-year growth for physical e-commerce retail sales was 6.3%, with categories like home appliances and cosmetics experiencing a decline in growth [7] - E-commerce platforms are increasing investments in instant retail to drive cross-selling with traditional shelf e-commerce, enhancing user engagement [7] - Major players like Alibaba and JD.com are expected to maintain double-digit year-on-year growth, although profitability may be pressured due to increased investments in flash sales and delivery services [8] Group 4: Economic Data Insights - The consumer price index for June is expected to show a month-on-month increase of 0.30% in both the US and China, with the previous data being 0.10% [9] - The industrial product factory price index is anticipated to rise by 0.20% year-on-year in the US for June [9]

交银国际研究 公司更新 | 新能源 | 收盘价 | | 目标价 | | 潜在涨幅 | 2025 年 7 月 16 日 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 人民币 | | 42.75 | 人民币 | 49.82↓ | +16.5% | | | 钧达股份 (002865 CH) | | | | | | | 产品价格偏软下业绩预告符合预期，海外产能布局再下一城 个股评级 买入 1 年股价表现 资料来源 : FactSet 7/24 11/24 3/25 7/25 -20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 120% 002865 CH 深证成指 股份资料 | 52周高位 (人民币) | 80.40 | | --- | --- | | 52周低位 (人民币) | 34.80 | | 市值 (百万人民币) | 9,538.81 | | 日均成交量 (百万) | 11.91 | | 年初至今变化 (%) | (16.34) | | 200天平均价 (人民币) | 47.47 | | 资料来源 : FactSet | | 文昊, CPA bob.we ...

交银国际研究 行业更新 2025 年 7 月 16 日 互联网行业月报 2 季度电商加速增长，即时零售为投入主题 2025 年 2 季度实物电商网上零售额调整后同比增 6.3%（对比 1 季度增 5.7%），其中4-6月分别增6.1%/8.2%/4.7%。分品类看，6月，因大促销售 前置，通讯器材/家用电器增速较5月回落，分别同比增14%/32%，化妆品 增速转负；家装需求持续恢复，家具保持较快增速，同比增 29%。邮政局 预计上半年快递业务量同比增约 19%，异地业务持续增加贡献增量。 行业与大盘一年趋势图 资料来源 : FactSet 7/24 11/24 3/25 7/25 -15% -10% -5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 行业表现 MSCI中国指数 谷馨瑜, CPA connie.gu@bocomgroup.com 孙梦琪 mengqi.sun@bocomgroup.com (86) 10 8393 5333 赵丽, CFA zhao.li@bocomgroup.com (86) 10 8393 5332 蔡涵 hanna.cai@bocomgroup.com (86) ...

交银国际研究 每日晨报 2025 年 7 月 16 日 今日焦点 | 中国宏观 | | | --- | --- | | 上半年新旧动能加速切换，内外需平衡改善 | 宏观策略 | | 李少金 Evan.Li@bocomgroup.com | | 中国内地 2025 年上半年 GDP 同比增长 5.3%，其中 2 季度同比增长 5.2%， 较 1 季度的 5.4%稍有放缓但整体运行保持在合理区间，这一表现在全球 经济增长扰动加大的背景下显得尤为珍贵。从增长贡献及对比 1 季度来 看，2 季度消费（52.3% vs 51.7%）、投资（24.7% vs 8.7%）、净出口 （23% vs 39.5%）三大需求的协调性较 1 季度明显改善，内需贡献增长， 而外需依然韧性，特别是在外部贸易紧张环境下，出口强劲表现成为稳 增长的关键支撑力量，也凸显了中国制造业的全球竞争优势和强大弹性。 6 月当月数据仍呈分化态势：工业生产加速至 6.8%，消费增速回落至 4.8%，投资增速放缓趋势延续，主要反映短期扰动因素对经济走势的影 响，经济运行的波浪式特征依然存在。 综合看，上半年中国经济在复杂的外部环境下展现较强韧性，新旧动能 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, Anta (2020 HK), with a target price of HKD 110.20, indicating a potential upside of 22.7% from the current price of HKD 89.80 [1][2][15]. Core Insights - The company's second-quarter revenue met expectations, with management reaffirming the annual guidance for growth across its brands, despite a competitive industry landscape. The expected revenue growth for Anta, FILA, and other brands is high single digits, mid single digits, and over 30% respectively [6][7]. - The report maintains revenue forecasts for the next three years but slightly lowers profit margin expectations due to industry discount pressures. Projected net profits for 2025-2027 are estimated to be between RMB 134.1 billion and RMB 165.4 billion [6][7]. - Anta's brand sales momentum has slightly slowed, but improvements in online channels are anticipated in the second half of the year. The company is optimizing its offline store strategy and expects to maintain high single-digit growth for the Anta brand [6][7]. Financial Overview - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: RMB 62,356 million in 2023, RMB 70,826 million in 2024, RMB 77,140 million in 2025, RMB 83,936 million in 2026, and RMB 90,550 million in 2027, with year-on-year growth rates of 16.2%, 13.6%, 8.9%, 8.8%, and 7.9% respectively [5][8][16]. - The net profit forecast for the same years is RMB 10,236 million in 2023, RMB 15,596 million in 2024, RMB 13,410 million in 2025, RMB 15,021 million in 2026, and RMB 16,543 million in 2027, with corresponding growth rates of 30.8%, 50.3%, -14.0%, 12.4%, and 10.1% [5][8][16]. - The report highlights a projected decline in profit margins, with gross profit margins expected to be 62.0% in 2025, 62.1% in 2026, and 62.2% in 2027 [7][17]. Brand Performance - Anta's brand recorded low single-digit revenue growth in the second quarter, while FILA achieved mid single-digit growth. Other brands like Descente and KOLON saw high growth rates of over 40% and 70% respectively [6][7]. - The inventory turnover ratio for FILA improved to five months, and the company strategically increased discounts in the e-commerce channel to optimize inventory [6][7].

Macroeconomic Overview - In the first half of 2025, China's GDP grew by 5.3% year-on-year, with a slight slowdown in Q2 at 5.2% compared to 5.4% in Q1, indicating a stable economic performance amidst global economic uncertainties [1][9] - The contribution of consumption, investment, and net exports to growth improved in Q2, with consumption at 52.3%, investment at 24.7%, and net exports at 23.0%, highlighting a better balance between internal and external demand [1][2] Industrial Production - The industrial added value for large-scale industries increased by 6.4% year-on-year in the first half of 2025, with June's growth accelerating to 6.8% [2][16] - Manufacturing output grew by 7.0%, with equipment manufacturing and high-tech manufacturing showing significant growth rates of 10.2% and 9.5%, respectively [2][16] - New energy vehicles and industrial robots saw production increases of 36.2% and 35.6%, respectively, reflecting a trend towards high-end and intelligent manufacturing [2][16] Consumer Market - Retail sales of consumer goods increased by 5.0% year-on-year in the first half of 2025, with a notable acceleration in Q2 [3][16] - The "old-for-new" policy positively impacted sales in categories such as home appliances and communication equipment, with growth rates of 30.7% and 24.1%, respectively [3][16] - Service consumption also showed recovery, with service retail sales growing by 5.3% [3][16] Investment Trends - Fixed asset investment grew by 2.8% year-on-year in the first half of 2025, with manufacturing investment increasing by 7.5% [5][16] - Infrastructure investment rose by 4.6%, while private investment saw a decline of 0.6%, although other private investments excluding real estate grew by 5.1% [5][16] - Investment growth volatility is attributed to fluctuating upstream material prices and reduced capacity utilization in traditional sectors [5][16] Real Estate Market - New housing sales in the first half of 2025 decreased by 3.5% in area and 5.5% in value, although the decline rate narrowed compared to the previous year [6][16] - In June, housing prices in major cities showed a downward trend, with new residential prices in first-tier cities decreasing by 0.3% [6][16] - The government is expected to implement stronger measures to stabilize the real estate market, with policies aimed at boosting demand and supporting housing construction [6][16] Foreign Trade - Total goods imports and exports increased by 2.9% year-on-year in the first half of 2025, with exports rising by 7.2% and imports falling by 2.7% [7][16] - The export of mechanical and electrical products grew by 9.5%, accounting for 60.0% of total exports, indicating a diversification of trade partners and resilience in external trade [7][16] - Trade with countries along the "Belt and Road" increased by 4.7%, providing a buffer against fluctuations in traditional markets [7][16] Financial Sector - The total social financing scale increased by 22.83 trillion yuan in the first half of 2025, with June's new social financing reaching 4.2 trillion yuan [8][16] - The M2 money supply grew by 8.3% year-on-year, indicating improved liquidity and funding support for the real economy [8][16] - The structure of credit also showed positive changes, with stable growth in household loans and a rebound in medium to long-term loans for enterprises [8][16]