BOCOM International

Search documents
交银国际每日晨报-20251006
BOCOM International· 2025-10-06 07:13
每日晨报 2025 年 10 月 6 日 交银国际研究 今日焦点 | 医药行业周报 | | | | --- | --- | --- | | 内外资加大布局服务类标的,4Q | 行业催化剂丰 评级: | 领先 | | 富,布局优质创新标的 | | | | 丁政宁 | Ethan.Ding@bocomgroup.com | | 行情回顾:本周恒生医疗保健指数涨 2.2%,跑输大市。其中,CXO、生 物药及中药板块表现较优于其他板块。 机构持仓回顾:9 月以来,内资通过港股通的持股比例持续增加,而外 资的持仓则从年中开始略有回落,但内外资持续加大创新药企布局的大 方向不变。本周,内外资均加仓服务类标的,包括潜在受益于降息的 CXO 企业。外资亦加仓长期潜力大、当前性价比较高的创新药标的。 投资启示:ESMO 大会将于今年 10 月中下旬举行,我们建议重点关注康 方生物、科伦博泰、荣昌生物等有重磅数据读出的公司。10 月起随着行 业催化剂增多,行情有望重启。我们继续推荐关注以下细分方向:1)创 新药:三生制药、德琪医药短期催化剂丰富、估值仍未反映核心大单品 价值;先声药业、和黄医药、传奇生物被明显低估、长期成长逻辑清 ...
交银国际每日晨报-20250930
BOCOM International· 2025-09-30 02:14
Group 1: Company Performance - The company reported a 7% year-on-year increase in attributable operating profit to HKD 4.466 billion, exceeding previous forecasts [1] - Adjusted EBITDA rose by 1% year-on-year to HKD 7.316 billion, driven primarily by significant growth in the financial services segment [1] - The company proposed a final dividend of HKD 0.35 per share, bringing the total dividend for the fiscal year 2025 to HKD 0.95 per share, alongside a stock dividend of 1 share for every 10 shares held [1] Group 2: Financial Services Segment - The financial services segment's AOP increased by 29% year-on-year to HKD 1.242 billion, with new business value profit margin improving by 3 percentage points to 30% [2] - The embedded value rose by 19% year-on-year to HKD 25.3 billion, indicating strong growth potential [2] - The logistics segment experienced a 3% increase in AOP, with China Railway International Container Transport Co., Ltd. contributing 23% to this growth [2] Group 3: Market Outlook - The company is currently undervalued, with an attractive dividend yield forecasted to reach 8.4% and 8.8% for the fiscal years 2026 and 2027, respectively [2] - The target price for the company is maintained at HKD 9.42, reflecting a buy rating [2]
周大福创建(00659):整体业绩超预期,股息率超8%,维持买入
BOCOM International· 2025-09-29 05:09
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Chow Tai Fook Enterprises (659 HK) with a target price of HKD 9.42, indicating an expected upside of 11.7% from the current price of HKD 8.43 [1][4]. Core Insights - The overall performance of Chow Tai Fook Enterprises exceeded expectations, with a year-on-year increase in attributable operating profit (AOP) of 7% to HKD 4.466 billion, surpassing the previous forecast of HKD 4.36 billion [1]. - The financial services segment remains a key growth driver, with AOP increasing by 29% to HKD 1.242 billion, supported by a 13% growth in the marginal balance of Chow Tai Fook Life Insurance contracts [1][2]. - The company plans to distribute a final dividend of HKD 0.35 per share, maintaining the total dividend for the fiscal year at HKD 0.95 per share, alongside a stock dividend to enhance liquidity [1]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Total revenue for FY2025 decreased by 8.1% to HKD 24.285 billion, with notable declines in logistics and construction segments [2]. - The insurance segment saw a revenue increase of 18.2% to HKD 4.081 billion, while the logistics segment's revenue fell by 11.7% to HKD 142.1 million [2]. - Adjusted EBITDA for FY2025 rose by 1% to HKD 7.316 billion, reflecting stable operational performance despite revenue declines in certain segments [2]. Segment Analysis - The financial services segment is highlighted as a future growth area, with significant investments in technology-driven brokerage and asset management firms to create a comprehensive wealth management ecosystem [1]. - The logistics segment experienced a 3% increase in AOP, driven by strong growth from China Railway International Container Transport Co., which contributed 23% to the segment's performance [1]. - The construction segment's performance stabilized post-acquisition, with a contract order book reaching HKD 58.5 billion, focusing on government projects [1]. Dividend Policy - Chow Tai Fook Enterprises aims to maintain a progressive dividend policy, ensuring long-term returns for shareholders, with a projected dividend yield of 8.4% to 8.8% for FY2026-27 [1].
交银国际每日晨报-20250929
BOCOM International· 2025-09-29 02:50
交银国际研究 每日晨报 2025 年 9 月 29 日 今日焦点 医药行业 特朗普对进口创新药加征关税,但实际影响或 有限,建议逢低布局 丁政宁 Ethan.Ding@bocomgroup.com 特朗普宣布 10 月起对所有品牌/专利药征收 100%关税。美国总统特朗普 通过社交媒体宣布自 10 月 1 日起,将对所有进口的品牌药或受专利保护 的成品药及制剂征收 100%关税,除非该制造商正在美国境内建设生产设 施(包括动工或在建)。此关税政策不适用于仿制药、生物类似药及原 料药/API 等中间体。 对中国创新药产业链影响有限,无需过度担忧:1)创新药:当前自主出 海品种多在美自建产能或已将生产外包给美国本土 CMO,而大部分国产 创新药出海采用 BD 模式。2)CXO:出口产品以原料药/生物药原液为主, 暂不受影响,制剂/成品药出口比例较低,下游 MNC 客户投资建厂尚需 时日,短期内对 CXO 订单直接冲击有限,长期来看政策变化也可能影响 其建厂节奏。总体而言,表面上此次美国加征药品关税短期冲击集中于 依赖海外生产之跨国药企、倒逼其在美国建厂,但整体覆盖范围有限、 对于中国医药产业链的整体影响或可控,与 ...
特朗普对进口创新药加征关税,但实际影响或有限,建议逢低布局
BOCOM International· 2025-09-26 10:59
交银国际研究 消息快报 医药行业 2025 年 9 月 26 日 医药 2025 年 9 月 26 日 特朗普对进口创新药加征关税,但实际影响或有限,建议逢低布局 丁政宁 Ethan.Ding@bocomgroup.com (852) 3766 1834 诸葛乐懿 Gloria.Zhuge@bocomgroup.com (852) 3766 1845 此报告最后部分的分析师披露、商业关系披露和免责声明为报告的一部分,必须阅读。 下载本公司之研究报告,可从彭博信息:BOCM 或 https://research.bocomgroup.com 特朗普宣布10 月起对所有品牌/专利药征收100%关税。美国总统特朗普于 2025 年 9 月 25 日通过社交媒体宣布,自 10 月 1 日起,将对所有进口的品 牌药(branded)或受专利保护(patented)的成品药及制剂征收 100%关 税,除非该制造商正在美国境内建设生产设施(已动工或在建的工厂可申 请豁免)。此关税政策不适用于仿制药、生物类似药及原料药/API 等中间 体,其进口仍可能免受关税影响。 对中国创新药产业链影响有限,无需过度担忧:1)创新药:当前 ...
交银国际每日晨报-20250926
BOCOM International· 2025-09-26 02:37
Core Insights - The report highlights the acceleration of adjustments in medical insurance and commercial insurance directories, suggesting a strategic approach to invest in undervalued quality stocks during market corrections [1][2] - The innovation drug sector is expected to benefit from a gradually forming insurance guarantee model, which may alleviate challenges related to hospital admissions and reimbursement payments [2] Market Review - The Hang Seng Healthcare Index fell by 1.4% this week, underperforming the broader market, while sectors such as internet medicine, CXO, and traditional Chinese medicine showed relatively better performance [1] - Domestic institutional investors maintained stable holdings through the Hong Kong Stock Connect, while foreign investors slightly reduced their positions since mid-year, although both continue to increase their investments in innovative pharmaceutical companies [1] Investment Recommendations - Focus on companies with significant data releases at the upcoming ESMO conference, such as Kangfang Biologics, Kelun-Biotech, and Rongchang Biologics [2] - Suggested investment strategies include gradually positioning in the innovative drug sector during market pullbacks, with specific recommendations for: 1) Innovative drugs: Companies like 3SBio and Eucure Biopharma have rich short-term catalysts and their valuations do not yet reflect the core value of major products [2] 2) CXO: Leaders in this segment are expected to benefit from high downstream demand and improving financing conditions, such as WuXi AppTec [2]
医药行业周报:医保和商保目录调整加速推进,板块回调中择时布局低估优质标的-20250925
BOCOM International· 2025-09-25 10:47
交银国际研究 行业更新 行业评级 领先 2025 年 9 月 25 日 医药行业周报 医保和商保目录调整加速推进,板块回调中择时布局低估优质标的 行业与大盘一年趋势图 资料来源 : FactSet 9/24 1/25 5/25 9/25 -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 行业表现 恒生指数 丁政宁 Ethan.Ding@bocomgroup.com (852) 3766 1834 诸葛乐懿 Gloria.Zhuge@bocomgroup.com (852) 3766 1845 估值概要 | 公司名称 | 股票代码 | 评级 | 目标价 | 收盘价 | | -----每股盈利----- | ----市盈率---- | | | ----市账率---- 股息率 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | | FY25E | | | FY26E FY25E FY26E FY25E FY26E | | | FY25E | | | | | | ( ...
阿里巴巴(BABA):云栖大会:从芯片算力到应用服务,阿里AI全栈式布局
BOCOM International· 2025-09-25 03:59
Investment Rating - The investment rating for Alibaba (BABA US) is "Buy" with a target price of $200.00, indicating a potential upside of 13.4% from the current price of $176.44 [1][2][11]. Core Insights - Alibaba is actively expanding its AI capabilities, showcasing a comprehensive AI stack at the Yunqi Conference, including flagship models and high-density AI servers. The company is also investing heavily in AI infrastructure, with plans to enhance its global data center energy efficiency by tenfold by 2032 [7]. - The report highlights Alibaba's strong revenue growth projections, with expected revenues of RMB 996,347 million in 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 5.9% [6][12]. - The company's net profit is projected to be RMB 158,122 million in 2025, with a slight increase from the previous year, and a Non-GAAP net profit of RMB 158,122 million is also anticipated [6][12]. Financial Overview - The market capitalization of Alibaba is approximately $395.48 billion, with a year-to-date stock price increase of 108.09% [4]. - The report provides a detailed financial outlook, including projected revenues and net profits for the next five years, indicating a steady growth trajectory [6][12]. - Key financial metrics include a projected P/E ratio of 19.2 for 2025 and an expected EPS of RMB 65.30 [6][12]. Stock Performance - Alibaba's stock has shown significant performance, with a 51% increase in price this month alone, reflecting strong market sentiment [7]. - The stock's 52-week high is $176.44, while the low is $80.53, indicating substantial volatility and recovery in its stock price [4]. Valuation and Outlook - The report suggests that Alibaba's valuation is attractive, with a target price adjustment based on a sum-of-the-parts (SOTP) analysis, reflecting the company's diverse business segments [7]. - The anticipated growth in AI applications and infrastructure is expected to drive further stock appreciation and market confidence in Alibaba's long-term prospects [7].
交银国际每日晨报-20250925
BOCOM International· 2025-09-25 03:32
Core Insights - Alibaba's Cloud Summit showcased advancements in AI technology, including the release of multiple models such as Qwen3-Max, Qwen3-VL, and Qwen3-Omni, indicating a strong focus on AI capabilities and ecosystem development [1][2] - Alibaba's CEO predicts that global AI investments will exceed $4 trillion over the next five years, with large models expected to become the next generation of operating systems [1] - The target price for Alibaba has been raised to $200, reflecting a potential upside of 13.4% from the current closing price of $176.44 [1][2] Company and Industry Summary - Alibaba is actively advancing its AI infrastructure with an investment plan of 380 billion yuan, aiming for a tenfold increase in global data center energy efficiency by 2032 [2] - The company has established a comprehensive stack in chip computing, applications, and services, which is expected to accelerate the implementation of AI applications in China [2] - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Alibaba, indicating confidence in its growth potential within the AI sector [2]
交银国际每日晨报-20250923
BOCOM International· 2025-09-23 02:30
交银国际研究 每日晨报 2025 年 9 月 23 日 主要商品及外汇价格 今日焦点 | 中微公司 | | 688012 CH | | --- | --- | --- | | 刻蚀设备优势明显,产品进一步多元化,首予 | 评级: | 买入 | | 买入 | | | | 收盘价: 人民币 254.00 | 目标价: 人民币 280.00 | 潜在涨幅: +10.2% | | 王大卫, PhD, CFA | Dawei.wang@bocomgroup.com | | 存储器电路结构复杂拉动刻蚀/沉积需求:此前,我们曾在主题报告和北 方华创首次覆盖报告中阐述逻辑电路制程升级会增加刻蚀和沉积设备需 求,本文中,我们深度剖析 3D NAND 的制作过程,随着 3D NAND 的堆 叠层数增加,沉积和刻蚀步骤也将相应增加,对刻蚀的深宽比要求也在 提高。3D NAND 对光刻设备需求较低,而对刻蚀设备需求则较高,这正 是中微公司擅长的领域。 | | | 三个月 | 年初至 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 收盘价 | 升跌% | 今升跌 | | 布兰特 | 66.69 | -13.38 | - ...