Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Neutral" rating to the company, Li Ning (2331 HK), with a target price of HKD 16.28, indicating a potential upside of 1.4% from the current price of HKD 16.06 [1][2][5]. Core Insights - The second quarter saw a slow recovery in sales, slightly below the company's expectations, with retail sales growth in the Li Ning brand (excluding Li Ning YOUNG) showing low single-digit year-on-year growth [5][6]. - The management indicated that the recovery trend in Q2 weakened compared to Q1, and sales and discounts remain under pressure since July [5]. - The report suggests that the company's sales recovery in the second half of the year will be gradual, leading to a downward revision of net profit forecasts for 2025-2027 [5][6]. Financial Overview - Revenue projections for 2025 are set at RMB 29,007 million, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 1.2%. The revenue for 2026 and 2027 is projected to be RMB 30,103 million and RMB 30,945 million, respectively [4][8]. - Net profit estimates for 2025 have been revised down to RMB 2,678 million, with a projected decline in net profit margins due to increased promotional activities and competition [5][7]. - The report anticipates a slight decrease in gross margin for 2025, with a forecasted gross margin of 49.1% [7][8]. Sales Channel Performance - In Q2, online sales outperformed offline channels, with e-commerce showing mid-single-digit growth year-on-year, while offline retail experienced low single-digit declines [5][6]. - The wholesale channel performed better than retail, with low single-digit growth in wholesale and a decline in retail sales [5][6]. Store Optimization and Product Trends - The number of offline stores is undergoing slight adjustments, with a net increase of 11 stores compared to Q1, while Li Ning YOUNG saw a net decrease of 18 stores [6][8]. - Product category growth continued from Q1, with running and fitness categories leading, while basketball products faced significant declines [6][8].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, JD US, with a target price of $40.00, indicating a potential upside of 29.9% from the current price of $30.80 [4][11][13]. Core Insights - The report highlights that the company's second-quarter losses from its food delivery segment are expected to exceed RMB 10 billion, leading to a 60% year-on-year decline in overall profits. However, retail performance remains stable, suggesting that the company is at a valuation bottom [2][8]. - The profit forecast for 2025 has been revised down to RMB 26 billion, with the target price adjusted from $50 to $40 [2][8]. - The report anticipates a gradual improvement in the food delivery unit economics (UE) in the third quarter, although losses may widen due to increased order volume. A recovery in losses is expected in the fourth quarter [2][8]. Financial Forecasts - Total revenue for 2025 is projected at RMB 1,295,593 million, reflecting a 1.3% decrease from previous estimates. The growth rate is expected to be 11.8% [3][14]. - Adjusted net profit for 2025 is forecasted at RMB 26,002 million, down 43.7% from prior estimates [3][14]. - The report provides detailed revenue breakdowns, including product sales and service revenues, with specific figures for each category [3][14]. Market Performance - The company’s market capitalization is approximately $41.63 billion, with a 52-week high of $47.08 and a low of $24.95 [6][14]. - Year-to-date performance shows a decline of 11.16% [6][14]. Operational Metrics - The report indicates that the company’s retail segment is expected to grow by 14% year-on-year, with a stable operating profit margin [8][14]. - The average daily active users (MAU) of the JD app have seen a year-on-year increase of 30-40%, indicating strong user engagement [8][14].

Group 1: JD Logistics - The company is expected to meet its Q2 performance expectations, with revenue continuing to show double-digit growth and profit increasing in the single digits year-on-year [1] - JD Logistics will provide full-time delivery services for the group's food delivery segment, settling at cost price, which will have limited short-term profit impact but aims for long-term synergy [1] - The target price is set at HKD 18.50, indicating a potential upside of 40.4% from the closing price of HKD 13.18, maintaining a "Buy" rating [1] Group 2: Bilibili - The focus is on enhancing advertising commercialization efficiency and long-term operation of core game IPs [2] - The company aims to strengthen its infrastructure capabilities, leveraging AI to reconstruct recommendation algorithms and improve advertising efficiency across multiple screens and scenarios [2] - The gaming segment is concentrating on long-term operations of core IPs, with new game launches expected to target niche markets and younger demographics [2] Group 3: Battery Industry - In the first half of 2025, China's power battery production and sales were robust, with a total installed capacity of 299.6 GWh, representing a year-on-year increase of 47.3% [4] - Exports of batteries showed a significant year-on-year increase of 56.8%, totaling 127.3 GWh, which accounted for 19.3% of total sales [4] - The overseas market for Chinese battery companies is expanding, with a market share of 43% among the top ten companies, an increase of 7 percentage points year-on-year [5] Group 4: Economic Data - Upcoming economic data releases include the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for June, with expectations of a month-on-month increase of 0.10% and a year-on-year increase of 2.40% [6] - The Industrial Producer Price Index for June is expected to show a year-on-year increase of 0.10% [6] - Retail sales for June are anticipated to decline by 0.90% month-on-month [6]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to several companies in the battery industry, including Ningde Times, Yiwei Lithium Energy, Guoxuan High-Tech, and others, with target prices indicating potential upside [2][20]. Core Insights - In the first half of 2025, China's power battery production and sales saw significant growth, with production and sales reaching 697.3 GWh and 659.0 GWh respectively, marking year-on-year increases of 60.4% and 63.3% [5][6]. - The power battery installation volume increased by approximately 47% year-on-year, with lithium iron phosphate batteries benefiting from safety and cost advantages, accounting for 81.4% of the total installation volume [5][6]. - Exports of batteries showed a recovery, with a total of 127.3 GWh exported in the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 56.8% [5][6]. - The market concentration of power battery installations slightly decreased, with the CR2 and CR5 ratios dropping to 66.4% and 82.2% respectively [5][6]. - The report highlights the progress in solid-state battery industrialization, with significant developments in production lines and energy density targets [5][6]. Summary by Sections Production and Sales - In the first half of 2025, the total production and sales of power and other batteries in China reached 697.3 GWh and 659.0 GWh, respectively, with year-on-year growth of 60.4% and 63.3% [5][6]. - The power battery installation volume was 299.6 GWh, up 47.3% year-on-year, with lithium iron phosphate batteries seeing a 73.0% increase [5][6]. Export Trends - Battery exports in June showed a recovery, with a total of 24.4 GWh exported, a month-on-month increase of 27.9% [5][6]. - The total export volume for the first half of 2025 reached 127.3 GWh, accounting for 19.3% of total sales [5][6]. Market Dynamics - The market share of Chinese power battery companies increased, with the top ten companies collectively achieving a market share of 43%, up 7 percentage points year-on-year [5][6]. - Ningde Times led the market with a 43.7% share in June 2025, followed by BYD and others [5][6]. Future Outlook - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring changes in overseas tariff situations, particularly following recent agreements between China and the U.S. [5][6]. - Companies like Ningde Times and Yiwei Lithium Energy are planning to list in Hong Kong, which is expected to enhance their capital strength and international competitiveness [5][6].

交银国际研究 消息快报 互联网 2025 年 7 月 14 日 哔哩哔哩 (BILI US) 2025 投资者日：聚焦广告商业化效率提升及核心游戏 IP 长线运营 赵丽, CFA zhao.li@bocomgroup.com (86) 10 8393 5332 谷馨瑜, CPA connie.gu@bocomgroup.com (86) 10 8393 5330 孙梦琪 mengqi.sun@bocomgroup.com (86) 10 8393 5333 蔡涵 hanna.cai@bocomgroup.com (86) 10 8393 5334 此报告最后部分的分析师披露、商业关系披露和免责声明为报告的一部分，必须阅读。 下载本公司之研究报告，可从彭博信息：BOCM 或 https://research.bocomgroup.com 哔哩哔哩 7 月 11 日举办 2025 年投资者论坛，管理层分享最新业务进展及 未来战略，重申社区定位及优质中长视频内容导向，商业化方面，坚持以 C 端为主+B 端为辅的变现模式，在持续拓展广告天花板的同时，进一步探 索多样化 C 端变现模式。 广告坚持一横一纵战略，深度挖掘 ...

Group 1: 康方生物 (Kangfang Biologics) - The report highlights the rapid advancement of the overseas registration and indication expansion for the drug依沃西 (Ivosidenib), with a positive outlook on its approval prospects [1] - The company has initiated multiple Phase III studies in mainland China this year, targeting large patient populations with limited treatment options, positioning依沃西 as a new generation I/O cornerstone drug [1] - The sales peak for依沃西 in China is adjusted to RMB 7.1 billion based on the point of sale (PoS) analysis [1] Group 2: 卡度尼利 (Cardunili) - 卡度尼利 has recently received approval for its third indication for first-line cervical cancer in the general population and is set to participate in the upcoming health insurance negotiations [2] - The company is initiating a Phase II study overseas for卡度尼利 in combination with lenvatinib, with potential registration and business development opportunities expected in the next 2-3 years [2] - The differentiated ADC development strategy is progressing well, with the first dual-antibody ADC AK146D1 completing its first patient enrollment [2] Group 3: 蔚来汽车 (NIO) - The pre-sale price of the NIO sub-brand's second model, 乐道 L90, exceeds expectations, starting at RMB 279,900, and can be as low as RMB 199,900 with battery-as-a-service (BaaS) [3] - The vehicle's pricing strategy positions it competitively against similar-sized models, offering superior space and performance, aiming to capture the family SUV market [3] - The report emphasizes the potential for a short-term rebound in stock price due to marginal improvements and a limited downside in the current market [6] Group 4: 房地产行业 (Real Estate Industry) - The overall real estate market remains stable during the peak season, with a 17.2% month-on-month increase in total sales in June 2025, reaching RMB 370.8 billion [7] - All top ten developers in June's sales ranking are state-owned enterprises, with Poly Developments leading the list [7] - The report anticipates further optimization of existing policies to promote real estate market development, with local governments expected to implement targeted measures [7][8]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to several companies in the real estate sector, including Sun Hung Kai Properties, China Resources Land, Link REIT, Country Garden Services, and Yuexiu Property, among others [3][4]. Core Insights - The overall real estate market remained stable during the peak season in June 2025, with total sales rising from RMB 316.2 billion in May to RMB 370.8 billion, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 17.2% [4][10]. - The report highlights that state-owned enterprises (SOEs) dominated the sales performance, with a market share of 74.8% among the top 50 developers in the first half of 2025 [4][11]. - The report anticipates continued improvement in secondary market demand, with a preference for projects by state-owned enterprises as buyer sentiment improves [4][12]. Market Performance - The stock prices of mainland Chinese developers have generally outperformed the broader Chinese corporate index over the past month, with the industry net asset value discount narrowing to 87.3% [5]. - In June, the sales of the top 100 developers increased by 12.3% month-on-month, driven by a rise in average sales prices and sales area [10][11]. Sales Performance - The report indicates that the total contract sales for the first half of 2025 decreased by 11.4% year-on-year to RMB 177.92 billion, compared to RMB 200.82 billion in the same period of 2024 [10][11]. - Among the top developers, Poly Developments ranked first in sales, with a total of RMB 29.1 billion in June, despite a year-on-year decline of 31% [13][14]. Policy Review - The central government has initiated policies aimed at promoting high-quality development in the real estate sector, focusing on optimizing existing policies and encouraging local governments to implement tailored measures [33][35]. - Over 26 cities have introduced market stabilization policies in June 2025, addressing various aspects such as housing subsidies and urban renewal [35][36]. Company Updates - China Resources Land plans to issue a new tranche of medium-term notes worth RMB 3 billion, while also securing a RMB 5.85 billion offshore loan [41]. - Sunac China has received support from 75% of its creditors for its offshore debt restructuring, indicating a positive outlook for the company's financial recovery [43].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for NIO Inc. (9866 HK) with a target price of 48.96, indicating a potential upside of 77.4% from the closing price of 27.60 as of March 24, 2025 [4][5]. Core Insights - The launch of the NIO sub-brand's second model, the L90, has exceeded expectations with a starting price of 279,900 RMB, which can be as low as 190,900 RMB with battery-as-a-service (BaaS) options, making it highly competitive in the large electric SUV market [1][2]. - The L90 features exceptional space design with a length of 5,145 mm and a wheelbase of 3,110 mm, offering spacious seating configurations and significant storage capacity, addressing consumer demand for "large space + high cost performance" [2][3]. - The vehicle is equipped with advanced technology and safety features, including a 17.2-inch central control screen, a 17.3-inch rear entertainment screen, and a robust safety structure, positioning it as a strong competitor in the family SUV segment [2][3]. Summary by Sections Product Launch - The L90 is positioned as a family-oriented large electric SUV with a competitive pricing strategy, aiming to disrupt the market by offering superior space and features compared to similar models [1][2]. Technical Specifications - The L90 boasts a lightweight design, with the single-motor version weighing only 2.25 tons, and a dual-motor version at 2.36 tons, which is nearly 200 kg lighter than comparable gasoline vehicles, enhancing efficiency and range [2][3]. Market Strategy - NIO's strategy includes a focus on intelligent and safety features, utilizing a unique competitive approach that emphasizes technology and pricing to capture market share in the family SUV sector [2][3].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to the company 康方生物 (9926 HK) with a target price raised to HKD 140.00, indicating a potential upside of 29.3% from the current price of HKD 108.30 [2][12][13]. Core Insights - The company is advancing multiple indications for its drug 依沃西, with a significant focus on I/O and ADC strategies, which are expected to differentiate its offerings in the market [2][7]. - The report highlights the promising overseas approval prospects for 依沃西, particularly for its application in treating 2L+ EGFRm NSCLC, as the efficacy shown in the HARMONi study surpasses existing chemotherapy options [7]. - 康方生物 is also initiating several Phase III studies in mainland China for various cancers, indicating a broadening of its therapeutic scope [7]. - The report anticipates a peak sales adjustment for 依沃西 in China to RMB 7.1 billion [7]. - The company is starting overseas development for 卡度尼利, with a recent approval for a new indication in first-line cervical cancer, and plans for a Phase II study in second-line liver cancer [7]. - The ADC development strategy is gaining traction, with the first ADC (HER3) entering clinical trials and the first bispecific ADC AK146D1 completing patient enrollment [7]. - The report emphasizes the rich pipeline of catalysts, including upcoming data releases and negotiations for multiple products in Q4 2025 [7]. Financial Overview - The company’s projected revenues for 2025 are estimated at RMB 3,506 million, with a significant growth trajectory expected in subsequent years, reaching RMB 8,053 million by 2027 [6][15]. - The net profit is projected to recover to RMB 402 million in 2025, with further increases anticipated in the following years [6][15]. - The report notes a substantial year-to-date stock price increase of 78.42% [4]. - The company’s market capitalization stands at approximately HKD 97.08 billion [4]. Valuation Model - The DCF valuation model indicates an equity value of RMB 114,241 million, translating to a per-share value of HKD 140.00 [9]. - The report reflects adjustments in revenue forecasts, with a decrease in expected revenues for 2025 and 2026 compared to previous estimates [8]. Market Position - 康方生物 is positioned within the biotechnology sector, focusing on innovative therapies that leverage both I/O and ADC technologies, aiming to capture new market opportunities [2][12]. - The report suggests that the company’s strategic initiatives and product pipeline could lead to sustained long-term value creation [7].

Group 1: Core Insights - The report highlights that certain technology stocks have reached all-time highs, suggesting investors continue to focus on AI investment themes [1] - The global stock market remains strong, with technology stocks outperforming the broader market, as evidenced by the MSCI Global Index and Nasdaq 100 rebounding approximately 24% and 31% respectively since April 7 [1] - TSMC's June revenue increased by 27% year-on-year, with expectations for continued technological advantages as it enters 2nm mass production in the second half of 2025 [1] Group 2: Industry Trends - Storage prices are expected to continue rising in the second half of 2025, with DDR4 contract prices showing significant increases and DDR5 spot prices recovering rapidly since June [2] - The report anticipates that the ongoing inventory replenishment, following tariff relief, will maintain upward pressure on storage prices, impacting costs for smartphones and consumer electronics [2] - Investment recommendations include focusing on AI infrastructure development while diversifying investments based on valuation, with a particular emphasis on domestic semiconductor companies and the domestic substitution process for semiconductor equipment [2] Group 3: Economic Data - The report outlines upcoming economic data releases for the U.S. and China, including consumer credit and unemployment claims in the U.S., and consumer price indices and trade surplus in China [4]