Investment Rating - The report provides a "Buy" rating for companies in the OTA industry, including Ctrip, Tongcheng, and Meituan, indicating expected total returns above the industry average over the next 12 months [44]. Core Insights - JD's entry into the OTA market through the "Hotel PLUS Membership Plan" is seen as a strategic move, but the difficulty in disrupting the existing OTA landscape is higher compared to the food delivery sector [1][29]. - The report highlights the differentiated competitive landscape in the OTA industry, with Ctrip focusing on the mid-to-high-end market, Tongcheng targeting lower-tier markets, and Meituan leveraging local life services to drive hotel bookings [29][41]. - The financial impact of JD's hotel business is estimated to involve a subsidy investment of 2 to 7.5 billion RMB, which could significantly affect the profitability of existing OTA platforms [1][29]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - As of the end of 2024, there are 350,000 hotels and 17.64 million rooms in mainland China, with 54% being economy hotels and a rising trend in hotel chain rates, reaching 40% [4][12]. - The average room price for star-rated hotels has shown fluctuations, with a projected stabilization in the second half of 2025 [18][29]. Competitive Landscape - Ctrip's hotel revenue is projected to reach 18.4 billion RMB in 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 13%, while Tongcheng's hotel revenue is expected to be 5.5 billion RMB, growing at 18% [29][31]. - The report notes that hotel business is the primary profit source for OTA platforms, with hotel monetization rates around 8-10% [29]. Financial Projections - The report estimates that if the monetization rate for hotels decreases by 1 percentage point, Ctrip's revenue and profit for 2025 could decline by 3% and 6%, respectively [1][29]. - The current price-to-earnings ratios for JD, Meituan, Ctrip, and Tongcheng are noted to be at historical lows, suggesting potential investment opportunities [1][29].

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with a "Buy" rating for the company [4][17]. Core Views - The company has significant long-term potential for its core products, with innovative research and development outcomes expected to materialize soon [4][8]. - The report highlights the strong competitive landscape for the core product, Teibiao, which is the only approved drug for CIT indications globally, and anticipates continued market share growth [8][11]. - The company is transitioning from a reliance on traditional blockbuster products to a diversified product matrix driven by new product launches and international expansion [12][13]. Financial Overview - Revenue projections for the company show a substantial increase, with expected revenues of RMB 19,236 million in 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 111.2% [7]. - Net profit is projected to reach RMB 8,631 million in 2025, with a significant growth rate of 317.4% [7]. - The company’s market capitalization is approximately HKD 50.58 billion, with a year-to-date stock price increase of 252.8% [6]. Product Insights - Teibiao is expected to achieve sales of RMB 51 billion in 2024, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 16% since 2020 [11][25]. - The product's market share in the platelet-stimulating drug category is projected to reach 34.3% by 2024, surpassing IL-11 class drugs [11][25]. - The company’s consumer healthcare product, Mandi, is anticipated to reach sales of RMB 13.4 billion in 2024, driven by a growing market for hair loss treatments [12]. Pipeline and Collaborations - The company has a robust pipeline with 30 products under development, including 12 expected to be approved in mainland China between 2025 and 2027 [13]. - A significant licensing agreement with Pfizer for the PD-1/VEGF dual antibody SSGJ-707 is expected to yield up to USD 60.5 billion, showcasing the company's drug development capabilities [13][16]. Valuation and Price Target - The report sets a target price of HKD 27.0, corresponding to a price-to-earnings ratio of 20.7 for 2025, indicating a potential upside of 26% from the current stock price [17].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to multiple pharmaceutical companies, including AstraZeneca, Hansoh Pharmaceutical, and Innovent Biologics, among others, while maintaining a "Neutral" rating for companies like Heng Rui Medicine and CSPC Pharmaceutical [2][15]. Core Insights - The Hong Kong prescription drug sector has shown a remarkable performance, with an average market capitalization-weighted increase of 65% year-to-date, surpassing the Hang Seng Medical Index and Hang Seng Index by 55% and 19%, respectively [4]. - Key market drivers include significant business development (BD) transactions, with 63 cross-border deals completed this year, of which 9 involved prescription drug companies, accounting for 37% of disclosed transaction values exceeding $1 billion [4][14]. - The report highlights that the average forward P/E ratio for the Hong Kong prescription drug sector is slightly above the past five-year average, indicating that core business valuations remain attractive despite higher apparent valuation levels [4][12]. Summary by Sections Valuation Overview - The report provides a detailed valuation table for various companies, indicating projected earnings per share (EPS) and price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios for FY25E and FY26E [2][12]. - For instance, Hansoh Pharmaceutical is projected to have a P/E of 33.0 for FY25E, while AstraZeneca is expected to have a target price of 93.30 [2][12]. Market Trends - The report includes a year-on-year trend analysis, showing the prescription drug sector's performance relative to the Hang Seng Index, indicating a strong upward trend [3][4]. - The report notes that the sector's performance is driven by improved earnings expectations and innovative product launches, which are expected to continue to support stock price recoveries [4][10]. Company Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on companies with strong short-term earnings growth and long-term innovation potential, specifically highlighting companies like Xiansheng Pharmaceutical and suggesting attention to Hansoh, China National Pharmaceutical, and Tonghua Dongbao [4][15]. - Target prices for certain companies have been adjusted, with Hansoh and China National Pharmaceutical seeing upward revisions, while the rating for Kelun Pharmaceutical has been downgraded to Neutral [4][15]. Financial Projections - Financial forecasts for key companies indicate robust revenue growth, with Hansoh Pharmaceutical expected to achieve revenues of 14,499 million RMB in 2025, reflecting a CAGR of 18.3% from 2024 to 2026 [18][20]. - The report also highlights the expected increase in net profit margins, with Hansoh's net profit projected to reach 4,695 million RMB in 2025, up from 4,372 million RMB in 2024 [18][20].

Core Insights - The prescription drug sector in Hong Kong has shown strong performance since the beginning of the year, driven by improved earnings expectations and significant business development (BD) transactions [1] - The average forward P/E ratio for the prescription drug sector is slightly above the past five-year average, indicating that while the apparent valuation is high, the core business valuations remain attractive when excluding BD collaborations [1] - The report recommends focusing on specific companies such as Xiansheng Pharmaceutical, Hansoh, China National Pharmaceutical, and Tonghua Dongbao, with target price adjustments made for Hansoh and China National Pharmaceutical [1] Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The prescription drug sector has rebounded due to innovation and improved performance expectations, with a consensus EPS forecast for 2025 being revised up by approximately 2% since the beginning of the year [1] - Companies with faster innovation cycles and positive fundamentals have seen larger upward revisions in their EPS forecasts, leading to stronger stock performance [1] Valuation Analysis - The current average forward P/E ratio for the sector is slightly above the historical average by 0.4 standard deviations, translating to about 2 times PEG when excluding certain companies like Heng Rui [1] - Despite the high apparent valuation, the core business valuations remain attractive, suggesting potential for further valuation upgrades driven by sustained long-term growth [1] Stock Recommendations - The report highlights Xiansheng Pharmaceutical as a key recommendation, with additional focus on Hansoh, China National Pharmaceutical, and Tonghua Dongbao, which are expected to benefit from overseas expansion or performance catalysts [1] - Target prices for Hansoh and China National Pharmaceutical have been raised, while the rating for Kelun Pharmaceutical has been downgraded to neutral, maintaining neutral ratings for Heng Rui and Shiyao [1]

Core Insights - The report highlights a structural differentiation in China's economic performance for May 2025, with consumer markets showing unexpected recovery, retail sales growing by 6.4% year-on-year, marking a new high for the year [3][4] - Industrial production growth moderated to 5.8%, influenced by external factors, while high-tech manufacturing and equipment manufacturing maintained rapid growth around 9% [3][4] - Fixed investment growth showed slight deceleration, and external trade demonstrated resilience with noticeable differentiation in export products and regions [3][4] Economic Performance - The consumer market's recovery was significantly supported by policies such as "old-for-new" exchanges, holiday effects, and promotional activities [3] - The overall economic landscape in May 2025 is characterized by recovering consumption, stable production, slowing investment, and resilient foreign trade, indicating a clear transition of new and old growth drivers [3][4] Policy Outlook - The report suggests that internal investment dynamics can be strengthened, and consumer growth sustainability relies on income growth and employment stability [4] - It anticipates that the second quarter can achieve a growth rate of 5% or above, with room for coordinated fiscal, monetary, and industrial policies in the second half of the year [4] - Proposed measures include accelerating the issuance and use of special bonds, continuing structural monetary policies to guide funds into the real economy, and stabilizing expectations in the real estate market [4] Market Performance - The Hang Seng Index closed at 23,980, reflecting a year-to-date increase of 16.43% [5] - Key commodities such as Brent crude oil and gold showed price fluctuations, with Brent at $73.30 and gold at $3,396.40, indicating varying market conditions [5] Sector-Specific Insights - The report includes various sector outlooks for the second half of 2025, emphasizing opportunities in industries such as renewable energy, technology, and automotive, despite prevailing uncertainties [6] - The automotive sector is highlighted for its accelerated penetration of hybrid and new energy vehicles, with a notable 52.9% penetration rate in May 2025 [6][7]

交银国际研究 宏观策略 2025 年 6 月 17 日 中国宏观 5 月经济运行的复合节奏 中国 2025 年 5 月经济数据呈现结构性分化特征。从主要指标表现看，消费市 场超预期回暖成为最大亮点，社零同比增长 6.4%创年内新高，"以旧换新"政 策、叠加节假日和促销活动的靠前刺激效果显著；工业生产增速温和回调至 5.8%，主要受外部因素扰动影响，但高技术制造业和装备制造业保持 9%左右 快速增长，高景气趋势延续；固定投资增速略有放缓；对外贸易展现韧性，出 口产品和地区均显现出一定的分化；一揽子金融增量政策支持下，流动性边际 改善。整体而言，5 月经济运行呈现消费回暖、生产稳定、投资放缓、外贸韧 性的格局，新旧动能转换和结构调整特征明显。 李少金 Evan.Li@bocomgroup.com (852) 3766 1849 当前经济运行面临内外部因素交织，政策协调发力仍有空间。从内部看，投资 内生动力仍有加强空间，市场主体信心和预期有提振空间；消费增长在政策支 撑下的可持续性亦需要收入增长和就业稳定的基础支撑。从外部看，贸易政策 不确定性、全球经济增长放缓大背景下，虽然转口等多元化策略有效对冲了部 分出口相关 ...

| 互联网行业月报 国补及大促拉动 5 | 月电商加速增长；带电消费 评级: | 领先 | | --- | --- | --- | | 亮眼 | | | | 谷馨瑜, CPA | connie.gu@bocomgroup.com | | 2025 年 5 月实物电商调整后同比增 8.2%（对比 4 月/1 季度增速 6.1%/5.7%）。分品类看，受益于国补范围扩大及 618 大促时间拉长，通 讯器材/家用电器加速增长，家装季开启后需求持续恢复，家具亦保持较 快增速。 我们预计 2 季度行业增长趋势持续。我们预计阿里淘天 6 月季度 CMR 保 持双位数增长；京东 2 季度家电品类仍将保持快速增长，外卖短期投入 或导致利润有下调风险。拼多多 2 季度将延续利润承压趋势，快手行业 竞争影响持续。 交银国际研究 每日晨报 2025 年 6 月 17 日 今日焦点 投资启示：持续关注国补延续对电商平台的拉动、满 1 周年后是否能持 续推动业务增长，以及各平台货币化率和利润率趋势。我们看好阿里电 商市占率持稳，货币化率提升，CMR 增速仍有上调空间。国补对京东的 增益仍将持续，当前市场预期已反映下半年高基数影响，关注 ...

交银国际研究 消息快报 银行业 社融保持同比多增，M1 增速在低基数上显著回升 万丽, CFA, FRM wanli@bocomgroup.com (86) 10 8393 5331 此报告最后部分的分析师披露、商业关系披露和免责声明为报告的一部分，必须阅读。 下载本公司之研究报告，可从彭博信息：BOCM 或 https://research.bocomgroup.com 银行 2025 年 6 月 16 日 5 月新增人民币贷款同比少增主要来自企业中长期贷款，居民中长期贷款 同比企稳。2025 年 5 月新增人民币贷款 6,200 亿元，低于市场预期（约 8,000 亿元），同比少增 3,300 亿元，同比少增主要来自企业中长期贷款。 从居民部门来看，居民短期贷款减少 208 亿元，同比少增 451 亿元；居民 中长期贷款新增 746 亿元，同比多增 232 亿元，连续 3 个月同比多增。从 企业部门来看，企业短期贷款新增1,100亿元，同比多增2,300亿元；企业 中长期贷款新增 3,300 亿元，同比少增 1,700 亿元；企业票据融资新增 746 亿元，同比少增2,826亿元。非银机构贷款净新增589 ...

交银国际研究 消息快报 汽车行业 2025 中国香港车博会调研： 多款飞行汽车和右舵车型亮相，中国内地汽车供应链全球化升级 此报告最后部分的分析师披露、商业关系披露和免责声明为报告的一部分，必须阅读。 下载本公司之研究报告，可从彭博信息：BOCM 或 https://research.bocomgroup.com 陈庆 angus.chan@bocomgroup.com (86) 21 6065 3601 李柳晓, PhD, CFA joyce.li@bocomgroup.com (86) 21 6065 3601 汽车 2025 年 6 月 16 日 多家中国内地整车和汽车供应链企业亮相中国香港车博会。6月12-15日， 2025 年香港国际汽车及供应链博览会（"香港车博会"）在中国香港举 办。11 家内地整车企业参加了本次车展，包括一汽、上汽、长安、比亚 迪、奇瑞、北汽、广汽、吉利、小鹏、零跑等主流汽车品牌。其中奇瑞展 出 12 款新能源车及 48%热效率鲲鹏发动机等尖端技术；小鹏展出近期在 中国内地首发车型 G7 与分体式飞行汽车"陆地航母"，展现陆空一体化 出行愿景；广汽全球首发量产飞行汽车 GOVY ...

每日晨报 2025 年 6 月 16 日 今日焦点 交银国际研究 | 房地产行业月报 | | 全球主要指数 | | --- | --- | --- | | 政策持续宽松调整，聚焦"止跌回稳" | | | | 谢骐聪, CFA, FRM | philip.tse@bocomgroup.com | | 根据克而瑞的初步数据，2025 年 5 月全口径销售总额由 4 月 3,089 亿元 环比上升 2.9%至 3,177 亿元。我们跟踪的 21 家主要上市开发商 5 月销 售额环比上升 17.6%。在前 50 的房企中，2025 年前五个月国企合同销售 额市占率略减至 72.8%。 国家统计局 2025 年 4 月数据跌幅普遍有所收窄，4 月 70 大中城市新建 商品住宅价格同比/环比分别下跌 4.5%/0.1%，二手商品住宅价格同比有 所好转，跌幅为-6.8%，环比持平为-0.1%。5 月行业支持政策持续出台， 叠加政策利好预期，我们预计市场将继续修复。 投资启示：我们预计二级市场的需求将持续改善，而一级实体房地产市 场将保持基本稳定。我们认为国企项目 2025 下半年的销售表现仍将优于 其他项目。中长期我们继续 ...