Group 1: Northern Huachuang (北方华创) - The company is positioned as a leading domestic semiconductor equipment manufacturer, showcasing both growth potential and resilience [1] - The domestic semiconductor equipment market share in China has increased from 13% in 2015 to an estimated 42% in 2024, with Northern Huachuang expected to double its market share by 2025 compared to 2020 [2] - The company’s current valuation at 27 times NTM P/E is close to historical lows, suggesting an attractive investment opportunity with a target price of RMB 530, indicating a potential upside of 19.6% [2] Group 2: Genscript Biotech (云顶新耀) - The company is advancing its platform for reversible mRNA therapies, with promising data from multiple drug candidates [3] - The EVM16 candidate has shown efficacy in mouse models and demonstrated synergy with PD-1 antibodies, while EVM14 is progressing through preclinical studies with potential for inducing immune memory [4] - The EVER001 study for treating membranous nephropathy has reported significant immunological responses, with antibody levels dropping by over 60% after 8-12 weeks [4][7] Group 3: Photovoltaic Industry - Recent policy discussions indicate a shift towards addressing the challenges faced by the photovoltaic industry, with expectations for substantive policies to emerge [8] - The report highlights opportunities for leading photovoltaic manufacturers, particularly in glass and silicon production, as the industry seeks to overcome competitive pressures [8] Group 4: Automotive Industry - The report notes a slowdown in the month-on-month growth of new energy vehicle deliveries, with a 17.7% year-on-year increase across 11 manufacturers [9] - BYD's June sales reached 377,628 units, reflecting an 11% year-on-year growth, while Xiaomi's deliveries exceeded 25,000 units despite slight month-on-month declines [10][11] - The overall market is expected to continue its growth trajectory in July, driven by new model launches from various manufacturers [11]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to several companies in the photovoltaic industry, indicating a positive outlook for their future performance [6]. Core Insights - The report highlights a significant policy shift aimed at addressing the overcapacity issues in the photovoltaic sector, with a focus on promoting the exit of outdated production capacities and enhancing product quality [2][5]. - The report notes that the recent comments from high-level meetings reflect a deeper understanding of the challenges faced by the photovoltaic industry and a commitment to implementing effective measures [5]. - The report anticipates a turnaround in the supply side of the photovoltaic industry due to forthcoming targeted policies [5]. - It mentions that leading photovoltaic glass manufacturers are planning to collectively reduce production by 30%, which is expected to improve the supply-demand balance [5]. - The report expresses optimism regarding the recovery of leading photovoltaic manufacturers, particularly those in the glass and polysilicon sectors, following significant price corrections [5]. Summary by Sections Policy Developments - The Central Financial Committee's recent meeting emphasized the need to eliminate outdated production capacities and regulate local investment practices that contribute to overcapacity [2]. - The report cites a commentary from the People's Daily that identifies local government actions as a key factor in the current challenges faced by the photovoltaic industry [5]. Market Dynamics - The report indicates that the photovoltaic glass production is expected to decline sharply, with July estimates dropping to 45GW, which will help alleviate the current supply-demand imbalance [5]. - It highlights the potential for price recovery in the photovoltaic glass market as a result of reduced production [5]. Company Ratings - The report lists several companies with "Buy" ratings, including: - Xinyi Solar (968 HK) with a target price of 4.28, indicating a potential upside of 71.9% [6]. - Longi Green Energy (3800 HK) with a target price of 1.49, indicating a potential upside of 49.0% [6]. - Flat Glass Group (6865 HK) with a target price of 11.30, indicating a potential upside of 28.3% [6].

交银国际研究 消息快报 汽车行业 小米汽车：6 月交付超 2.5 万辆，环比略有下滑，主要由于部分产能用于 YU7 上市后交付。6 月 26 日小米推出 SUV 车型 YU7 ，开售 18 小时锁单量 突破24万辆，显示强大的品牌号召力。小米汽车当前销量仍受制于产能， 我们看好小米汽车的销量前景，建议关注二期产能投放进度。 6 月新能源汽车交付环比趋缓；小米 YU7 热销潜力凸显 6 月多家车企交付量延续增长，但环比增速放缓。根据部分已公布的 6 月 车企交付量数据， 得益于以旧换新补贴政策，以及各车企推出的促销活 动，6 月新能源车市场延续增长态势，由于新能源渗透率已经连续 3 个月 超 50%，处于较高水平，因此环比增速有所放缓，其中 11 家车企销量同 比增长约 17.7%，环比微增约 0.5%。 比亚迪：行业龙头比亚迪乘用车 6 月销量 377,628 辆，同比增长 11.0%， 环比微增 0.2%。其中比亚迪汽车王朝和海洋当月销售 342,737 辆；方程豹 汽车销售 18,903 辆；腾势汽车销售 15,783 辆；仰望汽车销售 205 辆。出 口方面，6 月比亚迪出口 89,699 辆，同比增长 ...

mRNA 平台开发稳步推进，可逆 BTK 膜性肾病数据优异；上调目标价 | 买入 | | | | --- | --- | --- | | 1 | 年股价表现 | | | 250% | 1952 HK | 恒生指数 | | 200% | | | | 150% | | | | 100% | | | | 50% | | | | 0% -50% | | | 股份资料 交银国际研究 公司更新 | 医药 | 收盘价 | 目标价 | 潜在涨幅 | 2025 年 7 月 2 日 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 62.20 | 港元 | 港元 72.50↑ | +16.6% | | | 云顶新耀 (1952 HK) | | | | | | 52周高位 (港元) | 65.15 | | --- | --- | | 52周低位 (港元) | 18.28 | | 市值 (百万港元) | 20,198.83 | | 日均成交量 (百万) | 13.36 | | 年初至今变化 (%) | 28.51 | | 200天平均价 (港元) | 47.94 | | 资料来源 : FactSet | | 丁 ...

Overview - The report indicates that the Hong Kong stock market is currently in a favorable window due to multiple positive factors, with the technology sector expected to be a key driver for the next round of market uptrend [3][4][6]. Macro Environment - External conditions are stabilizing, with geopolitical factors being generally controllable and limited spillover risks. The pause in tariff negotiations until July and August provides a buffer for the market [6]. - The liquidity environment is favorable, with short-term liquidity in the Hong Kong market being abundant, which is expected to support stock market growth [6]. Sector Insights Financial Sector - China Pacific Insurance (2601HK) is highlighted as a buy recommendation due to its low valuation and high investment cost-effectiveness. The target price is set at 32.00, indicating a potential upside of 19.2% [8][9]. Real Estate Sector - Link REIT (823HK) is recommended as a buy, with a target price of 47.70, reflecting a potential increase of 13.8%. The company is expected to maintain stable dividends and benefit from the easing of interest rates [15][16]. Technology Sector - OmniVision Technologies (603501CH) is identified as a buy with a target price of 180.00, suggesting a potential upside of 41.0%. The company is positioned to benefit from the domestic semiconductor supply chain and rising demand in the automotive sector [22][24]. Internet Sector - Tencent (700HK) is also recommended as a buy, with a target price of 604.00, indicating a potential upside of 20.1%. The company is expected to see stable performance across its various business lines, with a projected revenue growth of 9.6% in 2025 [32][34]. Automotive Sector - XPeng Motors (9868HK) is highlighted as a buy with a target price of 134.69, indicating a potential upside of 90.8%. The company is expected to achieve breakeven due to strong new vehicle cycles and improved margins [38][40]. Healthcare Sector - 3SBio (1530HK) is recommended as a buy, with a target price of 27.00, suggesting a potential upside of 14.2%. The company is expected to benefit from the launch of new products and strong sales growth [45][47]. Consumer Sector - Pop Mart (9992HK) is identified as a buy with a target price of 300.00, indicating a potential upside of 12.5%. The company is experiencing strong growth driven by its core IP products [52][54]. Conclusion - The report emphasizes that the Hong Kong stock market is poised for a broader uptrend, particularly in the technology sector, contingent on stronger fundamental support and policy catalysts [4][6].

交银国际研究 每日晨报 2025 年 7 月 2 日 今日焦点 每月金股 七月研选：多重利好因素共振，港股进入交易顺 畅期 交银国际研究团队 近期，港股呈现盘整巩固态势。随着风险溢价回落，港股已基本完成此 前宏观影响的修复进程。在新消费、医药板块主题行情轮番推动下，恒 生指数再度逼近年内 3 月份高点。 港股正处于多重利好因素共振的有利窗口期，科技板块有望成下一轮上 涨行情重要引擎。 当前适度的拥挤度状态为投资者提供了较理想的配置窗口，特别是在科 技板块估值压力充分释放的背景下，我们认为港股从结构性行情向更为 广泛的全面上涨转换，仍需要更加强有力的基本面支撑以及政策催化因 素，以推动市场情绪的全面回暖和参与度的明显提升。 七月研选 | 全球主要指数 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 年初至今 | | | 收盘价 | 升跌% | 升跌% | | 恒指 | 24,072 | -0.87 | 20.00 | | 国指 | 8,678 | -0.96 | 19.05 | | 上 A | 3,610 | 0.59 | 2.76 | | 上 B | 258 | -0.07 ...

| 财务数据一览 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 年结3月31日 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026E | 2027E | 2028E | | 收入 (百万港元) | 81,410 | 79,258 | 80,449 | 82,049 | 83,692 | | 同比增长 (%) | -11.5 | -2.6 | 1.5 | 2.0 | 2.0 | | 净利润 (百万港元) | 3,185 | 3,252 | 3,707 | 3,934 | 4,114 | | 每股盈利 (港元) | 0.73 | 0.63 | 0.68 | 0.72 | 0.76 | | 同比增长 (%) | -4.2 | -14.1 | 8.5 | 6.1 | 4.6 | | 前EPS预测值 (港元) | | | 0.74 | 0.79 | | | 调整幅度 (%) | | | -8.5 | -8.0 | | | 市盈率 (倍) | 10.1 | 11.7 | 10.8 | 10.2 | 9.7 | | 每股账面净值 (港元) | 9.92 | 9.89 | 10 ...

交银国际研究 拥挤度价量维度：量能维度显示港股整体交易情绪保持相对积极，但科 技板块交易活跃度明显不足，成交额与换手率均回落至历史分位数 40% 左右水平，反映市场缺乏明确的方向性预期，普遍处于观望状态。 板块呈分化格局：医药生物板块量价指标均已攀升至历史相对高位，拥 挤度偏高且上行空间可能受限。半导体、硬件设备、软件服务、电信、 家电、零售等板块拥挤度显著回落，向上弹性空间充足。 港股正处于多重利好因素共振的有利窗口期：1）地缘局势总体可控，外 溢风险相对有限。特朗普政策重心正因减税法案等内政议题而出现"由 外向内"切换，进一步降低了外部政策冲击的可能性。2）港股市场流动 性在短期内十分充裕，且近期新股上市活跃，持续为市场注入新的投资 主题和情绪催化剂。3）风险情绪的改善和流动性的充裕为下一阶段科技 股上涨行情提供了必要的基础条件，目前仅待叙事主题催化。 | 小米集团 | | 1810 HK | | --- | --- | --- | | 小米 YU7 正式发布，关注产能爬坡进度 | | 评级: 买入 | | 收盘价: 港元 58.95 | 目标价: 港元 67.00↑ | 潜在涨幅: +13.7% | | ...

Core Insights - The report indicates that the Hong Kong stock market is approaching a favorable window for upward movement, driven by multiple positive factors, particularly in the technology sector, which is expected to be a key engine for the next round of market rallies [3][53]. Market Overview - The Hang Seng Index (HSI) is nearing its high for the year, supported by a recovery in risk premiums and a stable RMB exchange rate, which have provided significant backing for the market [6][54]. - The liquidity environment in the Hong Kong market is currently abundant, which is expected to provide sufficient momentum for upward movement in the short term, despite potential challenges in maintaining this state in the medium term [5][53]. Crowding Indicators - The analysis of crowding indicators shows that the HSI is currently in a slightly crowded position, with price deviation levels in the historical range of 70-80%, while the Hang Seng Tech Index has returned to a more balanced state at 50-60% [14][37]. - The volume indicators suggest that overall trading sentiment in the Hong Kong market remains relatively positive, although the technology sector has seen a notable decline in trading activity, with transaction volumes and turnover rates dropping to around the 40th percentile historically [16][37]. Sector Analysis - There is a clear divergence in crowding levels across sectors: the pharmaceutical and biotechnology sectors have reached relatively high crowding levels, limiting their upward potential, while sectors such as transportation, energy, media, and non-bank financials maintain upward momentum with moderate crowding levels [2][44]. - The semiconductor, hardware, software services, telecommunications, home appliances, and retail sectors have seen significant declines in crowding levels, indicating ample upward elasticity [2][49]. Market Dynamics - The report highlights that the current moderate crowding state in the Hong Kong market provides an ideal allocation window for investors, especially as valuation pressures in the technology sector have been sufficiently released [4][54]. - A transition from a structural market to a broader-based rally is anticipated, contingent upon stronger fundamental support and policy catalysts to enhance market sentiment and participation [4][54]. Conclusion - The report concludes that the Hong Kong stock market is at a critical juncture, with the potential for a significant upward shift if key catalysts emerge, particularly in the technology sector, which has shown resilience despite recent adjustments [4][54].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Xiaomi Group (1810 HK) with a target price raised to HKD 67.00, indicating a potential upside of 13.7% from the current closing price of HKD 58.95 [1][12]. Core Insights - The report highlights the official launch of the Xiaomi YU7, along with other products, and has adjusted the sales forecast for Xiaomi's automotive segment for 2025 and 2026 upwards. The YU7 is expected to lead in sales within the SUV segment, contributing significantly to revenue growth [2][6]. - The financial projections show a substantial increase in revenue and net profit over the next few years, with revenue expected to reach RMB 646.16 billion in 2026, up from RMB 270.97 billion in 2023, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 28.1% [3][13]. - The report emphasizes the importance of production capacity for Xiaomi's automotive business, predicting that new factories will start contributing to production in the second half of 2026, with projected sales of 400,000 and 700,000 units for 2025 and 2026, respectively [6][8]. Financial Overview - Revenue projections for Xiaomi Group are as follows: - 2023: RMB 270,970 million - 2024: RMB 365,906 million - 2025E: RMB 504,404 million - 2026E: RMB 646,164 million - 2027E: RMB 778,515 million - Net profit is projected to grow significantly, reaching RMB 65,250 million by 2027, up from RMB 17,475 million in 2023, indicating a strong growth trajectory [3][13]. - The report also provides earnings per share (EPS) estimates, with a forecast of RMB 2.17 for 2026, reflecting a substantial increase from RMB 0.77 in 2023 [3][14]. Product Launch and Market Position - The Xiaomi YU7 features advanced specifications, including a 0-100 km/h acceleration time of 3.23 seconds and a maximum speed of 253 km/h, positioning it competitively in the electric SUV market [6][7]. - The launch of the first AI glasses by Xiaomi is expected to enhance its ecosystem, with a pricing strategy that slightly exceeds market expectations, indicating potential for long-term growth [6][8].