| 医药 | 收盘价 | | 目标价 | | 潜在涨幅 | 2025 年 8 月 26 日 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 港元 | | 88.70 | 港元 | 103.00↑ | +16.1% | | | 荣昌生物 (9995 HK) | | | | | | | 2Q25 产品销售强劲增长并减亏，核心资产海外价值可期，上调目标价 公司 2Q25 继续减亏，核心产品销售强劲增长的同时、费用率延续改善趋势， 整体业绩和现金储备稳中向好。泰它西普达成 BD 后海外稳步推进，我们基于 关键适应症上优异的临床数据进一步上调其经 PoS 调整全球销售峰值至 31 亿 美元；同时公司早期管线蕴含巨大的临床和 BD 价值。维持买入评级。 交银国际研究 财务模型更新 个股评级 买入 1 年股价表现 资料来源 : FactSet 8/24 12/24 4/25 -100% 0% 100% 200% 300% 400% 500% 600% 700% 9995 HK 恒生指数 股份资料 | 52周高位 (港元) | 88.70 | | --- | --- | | 5 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for Pinduoduo (PDD US) with a target price raised from $135 to $150, indicating a potential upside of 17.0% [2][11][13]. Core Insights - The second quarter profits exceeded expectations primarily due to better-than-expected interest income and marketing expenses. Advertising revenue grew by 13% year-on-year, aligning with expectations, while commission income slowed due to the contraction of the full-service business and a decrease in merchant support program growth [2][6]. - The report anticipates marginal improvement in performance for the second half of the year compared to the first half, despite ongoing support for merchants and user investments. The impact of merchant support plans and national subsidies is expected to improve marginally, and disruptions to overseas business are anticipated to be less severe than in the second quarter [2][6]. Financial Projections - Revenue projections for 2025 are set at RMB 436,926 million, a decrease of 2.9% from previous estimates. For 2026, revenue is projected at RMB 522,532 million, down 6.0% from earlier forecasts, and for 2027, it is expected to be RMB 590,022 million, also a 6.4% reduction [5][14]. - Adjusted net profit for 2025 is forecasted at RMB 109,073 million, reflecting a 4.1% increase from previous estimates, while adjusted net profit margins are expected to improve to 25.0% [5][14]. Market Performance - The stock has shown a year-to-date change of +32.19%, with a market capitalization of approximately $178.05 billion. The 52-week high and low for the stock are $154.27 and $88.35, respectively [4][14]. Earnings Overview - For Q2 2025, the company reported revenue of RMB 104 billion, with a year-on-year growth rate slowing to 7%. Adjusted net profit for the quarter was RMB 32.7 billion, which was 20% higher than consensus estimates due to better-than-expected interest income and lower marketing expenses [6][7].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expectation of total returns exceeding the relevant industry over the next 12 months [2][9]. Core Insights - The company has significantly exceeded performance expectations, with a notable reduction in risks associated with its U.S. operations. The expansion into AIDC (Automatic Identification and Data Capture) is expected to enhance valuation potential [2][6]. - The target price for the company has been raised to RMB 119.00 from RMB 72.50, reflecting an increase in earnings forecasts for 2025-2027 by 16%/17%/14% respectively [6][9]. Financial Overview - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: RMB 72,251 million in 2023, RMB 77,857 million in 2024, RMB 99,443 million in 2025, RMB 107,774 million in 2026, and RMB 115,947 million in 2027, with a year-on-year growth of 79.5% in 2023 and 27.7% in 2025 [5][11]. - Net profit is expected to grow from RMB 9,440 million in 2023 to RMB 14,510 million in 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 162.7% in 2023 and 31.5% in 2025 [5][11]. - The company’s market capitalization is approximately RMB 162,148 million, with a year-to-date price change of 38.97% [4][11]. Performance Metrics - The company reported a gross margin of 33.8% in Q2 2025, with a significant increase in revenue from its energy storage segment, which rose by 128% year-on-year [6][7]. - The average daily trading volume is approximately 74.19 million shares, indicating strong market interest [4][11]. Market Position - The company is positioned within the photovoltaic manufacturing sector, specifically focusing on inverters, and is expected to benefit from favorable changes in U.S. tariff policies and increased demand for energy storage solutions [6][9].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, Junda Co., Ltd. (002865 CH), with a target price raised to RMB 57.70, indicating a potential upside of 16.1% from the current price of RMB 49.68 [9][10][14]. Core Insights - The company reported a slight loss exceeding the forecast median, with a 2Q25 loss of RMB 158 million, attributed to a decline in battery prices and a decrease in overseas revenue share [2][10]. - The government has increased the certainty of supply-side reforms in the photovoltaic industry, aiming to regulate competition and eliminate below-cost sales practices [10]. - The company is positioned to benefit from the U.S. market due to its unique production capacity in the Middle East, with a joint venture expected to commence exports to the U.S. early next year [10]. Financial Overview - Revenue projections for the company show a significant decline in 2024 to RMB 9,952 million, followed by a gradual recovery to RMB 15,397 million by 2027 [16]. - The net profit is expected to turn positive in 2026, reaching RMB 1,427 million, with a projected earnings per share of RMB 4.88 [16]. - The company’s market capitalization is approximately RMB 11,085.10 million, with a 52-week high of RMB 80.40 and a low of RMB 34.80 [4]. Performance Metrics - The company’s gross margin is projected to improve significantly by 2026, with a net profit margin of 11.2% anticipated [18]. - The price-to-earnings ratio is expected to decrease from 13.9 in 2023 to 8.4 by 2027, indicating a more attractive valuation over time [16]. - The company’s return on equity (ROE) is projected to recover to 25.8% by 2027, reflecting improved profitability [18].

| 医药 收盘价 | | 目标价 | | 潜在涨幅 | 2025 年 8 月 26 日 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 港元 | 6.36 | 港元 | 8.80↑ | +38.3% | | | 德琪医药 (6996 HK) | | | | | | 交银国际研究 财务模型更新 CLDN18.2 ADC 数据再证同类最佳，TCE 平台价值远被低估，上调目标价 公司 CLDN18.2 ADC 最新数据进一步验证其优于潜在竞品的疗效和安全性特 征，我们上调其中长期销售预测、并继续对其 BD 出海前景持乐观态度。差异 化显著的二代 TCE 平台价值被显著低估，重磅产品/合作机会可期。我们持续 看好公司创新平台价值兑现和股价修复的机会，维持买入和重点推荐。 个股评级 买入 1 年股价表现 资料来源 : FactSet 8/24 12/24 4/25 -200% 0% 200% 400% 600% 800% 1000% 1200% 1400% 6996 HK 恒生指数 Ethan.Ding@bocomgroup.com (852) 3766 1834 诸葛乐懿 Glor ...

Global Macro - The Federal Reserve Chairman Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole global central bank meeting indicated a dovish stance, suggesting that the risks of a downturn in the labor market outweigh the risks of rising inflation, thus opening the door for a potential rate cut in September [1] - The Fed's policy framework is shifting from an average inflation targeting (AIT) to a flexible inflation target of 2%, eliminating the concept of inflation "compensation" [1] - The labor market's downward risks and the delayed inflation effects from tariffs are expected to support the case for a rate cut in September [1][2] Kuaishou (快手) - Kuaishou's Q2 2025 total revenue increased by 13% year-on-year, with adjusted net profit reaching 5.6 billion yuan, exceeding expectations by 10% due to improved gross margin and marketing expense ratio [3][5] - For Q3 2025, e-commerce GMV is expected to grow by 15%, driven by increased frequency across multiple scenarios, while advertising revenue is projected to grow by 13%, lower than previous expectations due to reduced advertising budgets [5] - The company has raised its full-year revenue guidance to 125 million USD, indicating further upside potential [5] Stone Pharmaceutical Group (石药集团) - In Q2 2025, the pharmaceutical business continued to face pressure, with revenue declining by 18% year-on-year, and product sales dropping by 25% after excluding licensing fees [6][7] - The management expects a sequential improvement in H2 2025, with revenue projected to grow by over 5% compared to H1 2025 and return to positive growth year-on-year [6] - The company announced an interim dividend of 0.14 HKD per share, with an expected full-year dividend of no less than 0.28 HKD per share [6] Jiumaojiu (九毛九) - Jiumaojiu's revenue in H1 2025 decreased by 10.1% year-on-year to 2.75 billion RMB, with a net profit decline of 16% to 60.69 million RMB due to same-store sales decline and store network adjustments [8][9] - The company is exploring new store models to drive same-store sales recovery, although the current network is still in a restructuring phase [9] - The management anticipates closing an additional 40-50 stores in H2 2025, indicating ongoing adjustments to the store network [9] Link REIT (领展房托) - Link REIT expects that the impact of potential interest rate cuts will outweigh rental adjustments, leading to a slight increase in target price to 49.80 HKD [10][11] - The company predicts that the recent decline in HIBOR/SORA/BBSY will help reduce financing costs, maintaining a buy rating [11] - The rental income from the mainland remains stable, with slight pressure on rental income from retail and office assets [12]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Neutral" rating to the company with a target price of HKD 9.30, indicating a potential downside of 11.6% from the current closing price of HKD 10.51 [2][11]. Core Insights - The company is expected to face continued pressure in Q2 2025 due to centralized procurement and hospital-level medical insurance cost control, but there are optimistic prospects for a recovery in the second half of 2025 and in 2026-2027 as these pressures are expected to ease [2][7]. - The report highlights the company's ongoing research and business development (BD) efforts, which are anticipated to contribute positively to performance, alongside a rebound in the raw materials and functional foods business [2][7]. - The target price has been adjusted upwards to reflect the anticipated recovery and the reasonable current valuation, with positive catalysts and risks already factored into the stock price [2][7]. Financial Forecast Changes - Revenue forecasts for 2025 have been revised down by 1.3% to RMB 29,649 million, with further reductions for 2026 and 2027 [6][14]. - The gross profit for 2025 is projected at RMB 20,161 million, reflecting a slight decrease from previous estimates [6][14]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders for 2025 is now expected to be RMB 5,568 million, an increase of 8.4% from prior forecasts [6][14]. Business Segment Performance - In Q2 2025, the company's pharmaceutical business continued to face challenges, with a 24% year-on-year decline in revenue across almost all therapeutic areas [7]. - The raw materials and functional foods segments showed resilience, with revenues increasing by 12% and 8% year-on-year, respectively [7]. - Management anticipates a revenue growth of over 5% in the second half of 2025 compared to the first half, driven by market expansion and new product launches [7]. Long-term Growth Drivers - The company is focusing on innovative products, particularly in the oncology space, with several key trials expected to progress by the end of the year [7]. - The report emphasizes the importance of BD transactions, with two significant deals expected to close by year-end, which could enhance revenue streams [7]. - The company is actively exploring opportunities in various high-potential areas, including peptide long-acting formulations and mRNA vaccines, which are expected to contribute to future revenue and cash flow [7].

交银国际研究 宏观策略 2025 年 8 月 22 日，美联储主席鲍威尔出席杰克逊霍尔全球央行年会并发表演 讲。从整体基调及市场的反应来看，鲍威尔言论"偏鸽"，主要体现在：1） 就业市场阶段性下行风险>通胀上行风险；2）因而需要调整货币政策—即为 9 月降息敞开大门。同时，鲍威尔也宣布了货币政策框架调整，核心为由平均通 胀目标制（AIT）改为 2%的灵活通胀目标制度，并取消通胀"补偿"。 李少金 Evan.Li@bocomgroup.com (852) 3766 1849 美联储当前面临就业下行、通胀上行双向风险，且还有 8 月的就业、通胀数据 可供参考，为何鲍威尔意外转鸽？ 就业市场阶段性下行风险增大。同上一年 9 月类似，就业市场下行风险推动美 联储降息。7 月，非农新增就业数据不及预期，且此前两月数据遭遇数十年来 最大的下修。尽管从就业数据上来看，7 月非农数据似乎仍尚可，且失业率维 持在低位。但由于持续下滑的就业调查回复率，及劳工局模型误差的影响，当 前的就业数据可能存在大幅被高估的风险。同时，失业率维持在低位主要可能 受供给因素推动，即移民减少等因素使得更多人退出劳动力市场，使得劳动参 与率持续走低 ...

Group 1: 卓胜微 (300782 CH) - The company has shifted from profit to loss in 1H25, with revenue in 2Q25 at RMB 948 million, down 13% year-on-year, and losses of RMB 101 million and RMB 147 million for 2Q25 and 1H25 respectively [1] - Management expects cost pressure to approach its peak as production capacity increases, with signs of cost reduction and improved efficiency emerging [1] - Revenue forecasts for 2025 and 2026 have been lowered to RMB 4.17 billion and RMB 5.17 billion respectively, with EPS estimates adjusted to RMB 0.05 and RMB 1.15 [1] Group 2: 哔哩哔哩 (BILI US) - The company reported 2Q25 revenue of RMB 7.3 billion, a 20% year-on-year increase, with adjusted net profit of RMB 560 million, slightly above expectations [2] - Game revenue surged 60% year-on-year driven by the success of "三谋", while advertising revenue also grew by 20% due to increased traffic and AI technology applications [2] - The target price has been raised to USD 32, reflecting a potential upside of 34.7% [3] Group 3: 途虎 (9690 HK) - The company’s performance in the first half of 2025 met expectations, with revenue growth driven by improved market share and profit margins [6] - The target price has been adjusted to HKD 25, indicating a potential upside of 31.2% [6] - The company is expected to maintain double-digit revenue growth and stable profit margins despite industry uncertainties [6] Group 4: 先声药业 (2096 HK) - The company achieved a 15% revenue growth and a 21% increase in adjusted net profit in 1H25, driven by a 26% growth in innovative drug revenue [7][8] - Management has updated guidance for 2025-2027, expecting over 15% growth in revenue and adjusted net profit [8] - The target price has been raised to HKD 16.40, reflecting a positive outlook on the company’s growth trajectory [8] Group 5: 恒瑞医药 (1276 HK) - The company reported a 16% revenue growth in 1H25, with innovative drug sales growing over 25% [9][10] - The company plans to repurchase shares worth approximately RMB 10-20 billion, contingent on achieving specific sales growth targets [9] - The target price has been set at HKD 70.40, indicating a potential downside of 9.4% [10] Group 6: 速腾聚创 (2498 HK) - The company’s laser radar sales increased over sixfold year-on-year in 2Q25, with expectations for peak deliveries in the second half of the year [11][12] - The gross margin for the robot business reached 41.5%, contributing to an overall gross margin increase to 27.7% [12] - The target price is maintained at HKD 41.89, reflecting confidence in the company’s growth potential [12] Group 7: 亿纬锂能 (300014 CH) - The company’s battery shipments reached 50 GWh in the first half of 2025, a 46% year-on-year increase, with revenue growing 30% to RMB 28.2 billion [13][14] - Focus is on improving profitability in the energy storage segment, with expectations for recovery in margins [13] - The target price is set at RMB 56.51, indicating a potential upside of 16.5% [14] Group 8: 名创优品 (9896 HK) - The company’s revenue grew 21.1% year-on-year in the first half of 2025, with a 23.1% increase in 2Q25, exceeding previous guidance [15][16] - The management has raised the full-year revenue growth guidance to over 25% [16] - The target price has been increased to HKD 48.70, indicating a potential upside of 24.7% [16] Group 9: 李宁 (2331 HK) - The company reported a 3.3% revenue growth in the first half of 2025, with net profit declining 11% year-on-year [17][18] - Management maintains a cautious outlook for the third quarter, citing challenges in the operating environment [17] - The target price is set at HKD 16.28, reflecting a potential downside of 10.1% [18] Group 10: 友邦保险 (1299 HK) - The new business value grew 14% year-on-year, primarily driven by contributions from Hong Kong and Thailand [19][20] - The company aims for a compound annual growth rate of 40% in new business value from new regions between 2025 and 2030 [19] - The target price is maintained at HKD 84, indicating a potential upside of 14.4% [20] Group 11: 恒基地产 (12 HK) - The company’s revenue fell 18.8% year-on-year in the first half of 2025, with core net profit down 44.4% [21][22] - The target price has been adjusted to HKD 25.90, reflecting a cautious outlook on the company’s performance [22] - The rental income remained stable, with a slight decline of 2.8% [22] Group 12: 越秀服务 (6626 HK) - The company’s revenue remained stable with a 0.1% year-on-year increase, while net profit decreased by 13.7% [23][24] - The company maintains a high dividend payout ratio of 50% [23] - The target price has been slightly adjusted to HKD 4.20, indicating a potential upside of 38.2% [24] Group 13: 中国电力 (2380 HK) - The company’s profit increased by 0.7% year-on-year, outperforming market expectations [25][26] - The company plans to adjust its installation targets for wind and solar power due to new policies [25] - The target price has been slightly lowered to HKD 3.75, maintaining a buy rating [26]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of HKD 41.89, indicating a potential upside of 21.4% from the current price of HKD 34.50 [1][10][11]. Core Insights - The company is expected to experience a peak in robot lidar deliveries in the second half of the year, with a significant increase in sales volume and revenue [2][6]. - The gross margin for lidar products is steadily improving, with the overall gross margin rising to 27.7% in Q2 2025, up 4.2 percentage points from the previous quarter [6][7]. - The company has made significant advancements in its self-developed SPAD-SOC chip, which is expected to enhance production capabilities and market competitiveness [6][7]. Financial Overview - Revenue is projected to grow from RMB 1,120 million in 2023 to RMB 4,456 million by 2027, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 45.2% [5][13]. - The net profit is expected to improve from a loss of RMB 4,331 million in 2023 to a profit of RMB 263 million by 2027, indicating a turnaround in profitability [5][13]. - The company reported a revenue of RMB 455 million in Q2 2025, a 24% increase year-over-year, with a notable 133% increase in gross profit [6][7]. Market Performance - The stock has shown a year-to-date increase of 12.38%, with a 52-week high of HKD 50.40 and a low of HKD 11.02 [4][6]. - The average daily trading volume is approximately 6.78 million shares, indicating active market participation [4]. Sales and Production Metrics - In Q2 2025, the company sold 158,200 units of lidar, a 29% increase year-over-year, with robot lidar sales surging by 632% [6][7]. - The average selling price (ASP) for lidar products was approximately RMB 2,600, reflecting a slight decrease of 5% from the previous quarter [6]. Future Outlook - The company is expected to achieve profitability by 2026, driven by scale effects and improved operational efficiencies [6][8]. - The upcoming release of the AC2 robot in the second half of the year is anticipated to capitalize on the growing demand for embodied intelligence in robotics [6].