系统性红斑狼疮蓝海市场，生物制剂脱颖而出 西南证券研究发展中心 2024年4月 分析师：杜向阳 执业证号：S1250520030002 电话：021-68416017 邮箱：duxy@swsc.com.cn 分析师：汤泰萌 执业证书：S1250522120001 电话：021-68416017 邮箱：ttm@swsc.com.cn 核心观点  系统性红斑狼疮患者人数多，市场空间大，目前仍存在巨大未满足的临床需求，生物制剂是特应性皮炎治疗的下一个重要方向  我国系统性红斑狼疮患者人数达42万-98万人，根据《中国狼疮性肾炎诊断和治疗指南》，我国系统性红斑狼疮人群发病率为 30.13~70.41/10万人，对应SLE患者达42.2万-98.6万人。根据2021年发布于《Nature Reviews Rheumatology》的综述 《Global Epidemiology of systemic lupus erythematosus》，北美SLE的发病率达3.7/10万人至49/10万人。2023年美国 人口达3.34亿人，对应SLE患 ...

重庆 地址：重庆市江北区金沙门路 32 号西南证券总部大楼 21 楼 邮编：400025 西南证券机构销售团队 地址：深圳市福田区益田路 6001 号太平金融大厦 22 楼 邮编：518038 [Table_Summary 事件：公司发布] 2023年年度报告，2023年实现营收 26.8亿元，同比增长 19.8%； 归母净利润 4.5 亿元，同比增长 24.3%；扣非归母净利润 3.7 亿元，同比增长 31.1%。其中，Q4单季度实现营收 8.5亿元，同比增长 8.4%，环比增长 38.2%； 归母净利润 1.7亿元，同比增长 18.4%，环比增长 55.6%；扣非归母净利润 1.2 亿元，同比下降 3.1%，环比增长 25.3%。 营收稳定增长，海外市场大有可为。从全年来看，公司营收 26.8 亿元，同比 19.8%，主要系公司积极拓展行业应用、打造公司品牌影响力、大力开拓海外市 场；归母净利润为 4.5 亿元，同比 24.3%，主要系营收增长及公司降本控费综 合影响。分地区来看，国内市场营收 19.6亿元，同比增长 12%；海外市场营收 7.2亿元，同比增长 47.5%。公司已在海外建立了强大的经销商网 ...

[ T able_StockInfo] 2024 年 04 月 22 日 证券研究报告•23 年年报及 24 年一季报点评 持有 （维持） 当前价：8.17 元 箭牌家居（001322）轻工制造 目标价：——元（6 个月） 基础数据 [Table_BaseData] 总股本(亿股) 9.70 流通 A 股(亿股) 1.66 52 周内股价区间(元) 8.17-19.71 总市值(亿元) 79.26 总资产(亿元) 96.36 每股净资产(元) 5.05 盈利暂时承压，降本增效持续发力 [Table_Summary 业绩摘要：公司发布 ] 2023年年报及 2024年一季报，2023年公司实现营收 76.5 亿元（同比+1.8%）；实现归母净利润 4.2亿元（同比-28.4%）；实现扣非净利 润 3.9亿元（同比-27.6%）。单季度来看，2023Q4公司实现营收 23.7亿元（同 比+5.4％）；实现归母净利润 1.4 亿元（同比-19.6%）；实现扣非后归母净利 润 1.3亿元（同比-14.1%）。2024Q1公司实现营收 11.3亿元（同比+2.3%）， 实现归母净利润-0.9亿元，实现扣非后归母净利润- ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1][3]. Core Views - The company reported Q1 2024 revenue of 270 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 50.6%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 60 million yuan, up 229.5% year-on-year [2]. - The company's shingles vaccine continues to see increased sales, with effective coverage in nearly one-third of vaccination points across 30 provinces, autonomous regions, and municipalities in China [2]. - The gross margin for Q1 2024 was 89.7%, an increase of 3.84 percentage points, primarily due to the high gross margin of the shingles vaccine [2]. - The company is investing in an mRNA technology platform to diversify its product offerings and enhance its research capabilities [2]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Q1 2024 revenue: 270 million yuan, up 50.6% year-on-year - Q1 2024 net profit: 60 million yuan, up 229.5% year-on-year - Q1 2024 gross margin: 89.7% (+3.84pp) [2] - Q1 2024 net profit margin: 22.41% (+12.17pp) [2] Product Development - The shingles vaccine is being sold at a price of 1369 yuan per dose, lower than GSK's vaccine priced at approximately 1600 yuan [2]. - The company is enhancing its digital appointment system and exploring various marketing channels to increase vaccine penetration [2]. - Investment in mRNA technology aims to develop various mRNA vaccines, including those for cancer and infectious diseases [2]. Earnings Forecast - Expected EPS for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are 1.61 yuan, 2.09 yuan, and 2.53 yuan respectively [3]. - Revenue projections for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are 2.28 billion yuan, 2.97 billion yuan, and 3.60 billion yuan respectively, with growth rates of 25.21%, 30.15%, and 21.03% [4].

[Table_StockInfo] 买入 2024年 04月 22日 （维持） 证券研究报告•2024年一季报点评 当前价： 110.40元 长春高新（000661） 医药生物 目标价： ——元（6个月） 长效生长激素占比提升，在研管线持续兑现 投资要点 西南证券研究发展中心 [T ab事le件_S：u公mm司a发ry布] 2024年一季报，实现营业收入 31.8亿元，同比增长 14.4%； [分Ta析bl师e_：Au杜th向or阳] 实现归属于母公司股东净利润8.6亿元，同比增长0.2%；实现扣非后归母净利 执业证号：S1250520030002 润 8.5亿元，同比下降0.86%。 电话：021-68416017  生长激素稳健增长。金赛药业实现收入24.7亿元（+5%），归母净利润8.6亿 邮箱：duxy@swsc.com.cn 元（-3%），生长激素板块稳健增长，长效生长激素占比持续提升。金赛儿科业 分析师：张殊豪 务稳健增长，生长激素相关剂型积极响应地方集采，长效剂型收入占比持续提 执业证号：S1250524030002 升。新业务战略更加清晰、聚焦。金赛药儿科综合、女性健康、成人内分泌、 电话 ...

[Table_StockInfo] 2024 年 04 月 20 日 证券研究报告•2023 年年报点评 持有 （首次） 当前价：22.08 元 华辰装备（300809）机械设备 目标价：——元（6 个月） 轧辊磨床龙头，高端磨床新星 [Table_Summary] 事件：公司发布 2023 年年报，2023 年实现营收 4.8 亿元，同比增长 42.5%； 实现归母净利润 1.2 亿元，同比增长 149.4%。Q4 单季度来看，实现营业收入 1.3 亿元，同比增长 36.6%，环比增长 27.9%；实现归母净利润 2166.9万元， 同比下降 14.1%，环比下降 49.1%。 深耕高端磨床领域，营收快速增长，毛利率同比上升。2023年国内外形势逐渐 稳定，国内机床行业各细分领域领军企业逐步崛起，高端数控机床依赖进口的 局面得以改善，公司稳步推进相关设备的交付等工作，2023年营收高速增长。 2023 年公司综合毛利率为 34.3%，同比增加 1.1个百分点；Q4单季度为 33.7%， 同比增加 10.5 个百分点，环比增加 3.3 个百分点。 全年期间费用率保持稳定，净利率同比明显提升。2023 年公司期 ...

盈利预测与投资建议。公司 2023年贯彻"一个目标、三条主线"的经营方针， 主营业务空调、冰箱、洗衣机、厨卫等均取得了较好的经营业绩。预计公司 2024-2026 年 EPS 分别为 0.87 元、1.03 元、1.14 元，维持"买入"评级。 营收增速环比提升。我们推测公司整体维持 2023年趋势，外销业务维持快速增 长，内销业务维持稳健。相较于 2023Q4营收增长 5%，公司营收增速环比大幅 提升，我们推测主要系国内空调扭转了下滑趋势，同时海外冰洗维持快速增长 态势。 [Table_Author] 分析师：龚梦泓 执业证号：S1250518090001 电话：023-63786049 邮箱：gmh@swsc.com.cn 联系人：方建钊 电话：18428374714 邮箱：fjz@swsc.com.cn 附表：财务预测与估值 本报告署名分析师具有中国证券业协会授予的证券投资咨询执业资格并注册为证券分析师，报告所采用的数据均 来自合法合规渠道，分析逻辑基于分析师的职业理解，通过合理判断得出结论，独立、客观地出具本报告。分析师承 诺不曾因，不因，也将不会因本报告中的具体推荐意见或观点而直接或间接获取任何形式 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Chuanhuan Technology (300547) with a current price of 17.37 CNY [1]. Core Views - The company's performance in 2023 met expectations, with a revenue of 1.109 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 22.3%, and a net profit of 162 million CNY, up 32.3% year-on-year. The gross margin was 25.8%, an increase of 2.3 percentage points, and the net margin was 14.6%, up 1.1 percentage points. In Q1 2024, revenue reached 299 million CNY, a year-on-year increase of 45.8% [1][2]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2023, the company achieved a revenue of 1.109 billion CNY, with a year-on-year growth of 22.3%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 162 million CNY, reflecting a 32.3% increase year-on-year. The gross margin stood at 25.8%, up 2.3 percentage points, while the net margin was 14.6%, an increase of 1.1 percentage points. For Q1 2024, the revenue was 299 million CNY, a 45.8% increase year-on-year, although it decreased by 17.7% quarter-on-quarter [1][2]. Customer and Market Dynamics - The sales volume of major customers increased in 2023, with notable growth from BYD (+62%), GAC (+39.7%), and Changan (+8.8%). The sales of automotive cooling system hoses decreased by 12.6%, while fuel system hoses increased by 26.7%. The company maintained stable profitability with a Q4 gross margin of 25.4% [2][3]. Growth in New Energy Sector - The proportion of new energy customers rose to 31.6% in 2023, an increase of 4.8 percentage points year-on-year. The company has established long-term partnerships with over 50 automotive manufacturers, including BYD and GAC Aion, which are expected to enhance revenue growth in the new energy sector [3]. Capacity Expansion and New Market Opportunities - The company is expanding its production capacity with a project designed to add 10,000 tons of hose production capacity, with a total designed capacity of 2 billion CNY. The company is also exploring new markets such as energy storage, data centers, and rail transportation, which are expected to contribute to future revenue growth [3]. Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The forecast for EPS from 2024 to 2026 is 1.01 CNY, 1.23 CNY, and 1.43 CNY, respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 17, 14, and 12 times. The compound annual growth rate (CAGR) for net profit attributable to shareholders is projected at 24.1%, maintaining the "Buy" rating [4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected relative performance increase of over 20% in the next six months [38]. Core Insights - The company reported better-than-expected performance in Q1 2024, with significant growth in its core product, Wuling Capsules, which saw a revenue increase of 35.3% year-on-year [2][17]. - The company achieved a total revenue of 6.7 billion yuan in Q1 2024, reflecting a 35.8% increase compared to the previous year, and a net profit of 1.4 billion yuan, up 46.1% year-on-year [17][19]. - The growth drivers identified include the Wuling series, the Bailing series, and traditional Chinese medicine (TCM) products, with expectations for continued strong performance in the coming years [3][19]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2023, the company achieved a revenue of 19.4 billion yuan, a 7.6% increase, and a net profit of 3.8 billion yuan, up 40.3% [17]. - For Q1 2024, the company reported a revenue of 6.7 billion yuan and a net profit of 1.4 billion yuan, marking increases of 35.8% and 46.1% respectively [17][19]. Product Performance - The Wuling series saw a revenue increase of 35.3% in Q1 2024, driven by a 43.9% increase in sales volume and a 37.3% increase in sales value of Wuling Capsules [2][3]. - The Bailing series experienced a sales volume increase of 7.1%, although sales value decreased by 19% [2]. - The TCM formula granules reported a significant revenue growth of 333% year-on-year, attributed to an increase in registered varieties [2][3]. Growth Drivers - The Wuling series is expected to leverage opportunities from centralized procurement, with projected growth rates of 17.5%, 12.8%, and 13.1% for 2024-2026 [7]. - The Bailing series is anticipated to benefit from relaxed insurance coverage and new product launches, with expected growth rates of 13.8%, 25%, and 34.1% for the same period [8]. - The TCM segment is projected to grow at rates of 27%, 30%, and 30% for 2024-2026, supported by increased market penetration and product registrations [24].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [4][12]. Core Views - The company experienced a decline in revenue and net profit in 2023 due to fluctuations in downstream demand, but it is expected to recover as economic activities resume [12][14]. - The company is actively exploring AI and big data opportunities, which may open additional growth avenues [12][14]. - The company has a strong competitive advantage in the government and large state-owned enterprises sector, which is expected to drive future revenue growth [12][14]. Financial Forecast - The company’s projected revenues for 2024-2026 are 2.624 billion yuan (+7.5%), 2.986 billion yuan (+13.8%), and 3.576 billion yuan (+19.8%) respectively [4][33]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be 268.92 million yuan (+38.1%), 393.24 million yuan (+46.2%), and 561.25 million yuan (+42.7%) for the same period [4][33]. - Earnings per share (EPS) are forecasted to be 0.81 yuan, 1.19 yuan, and 1.70 yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively [4][33]. Business Segments - **Smart Procurement**: Revenue is expected to grow at rates of 7%, 10%, and 15% from 2024 to 2026, despite a short-term decline due to reduced government bidding [14][36]. - **Smart Government**: Anticipated order growth rates are 5%, 15%, and 20% for the same period, benefiting from the implementation of government big data policies [36]. - **Digital Construction**: Expected revenue growth rates are 5%, 10%, and 15% from 2024 to 2026, with an increase in software penetration in the industry [3][36].