Investment Rating - Buy (maintained) [1] Core Views - Q3 revenue achieved high growth, with Q4 gross margin expected to improve sequentially [1] - High-performance computing business expanded rapidly, driving revenue growth, particularly in laptops and servers [2] - Automotive electronics grew rapidly, with comprehensive product layout in smart cockpit, smart driving, smart connectivity, and smart vehicle control [2] - Acquisition of Yiluda to enter North American specific customer supply chain, opening long-term growth potential [3] Financial Performance - Q3 2024 revenue: RMB 36.61 billion, +45.4% YoY, +58.0% QoQ [1] - Q3 2024 net profit attributable to parent company: RMB 760 million, +8.0% YoY, +10.6% QoQ [1] - Q3 2024 gross margin: 7.6%, -3.2pct YoY, -2.7pct QoQ [1] - Q3 2024 net margin: 2.1%, -0.7pct YoY, -0.9pct QoQ [1] - 2024E revenue: RMB 106.673 billion, +25% YoY [1] - 2024E net profit attributable to parent company: RMB 2.928 billion, +8% YoY [1] Business Highlights - High-performance computing: AI PC mass production and server/switch deliveries to major clients drove revenue growth [2] - Automotive electronics: Revenue reached RMB 640 million in H1 2024, +102% YoY [2] - Acquisition of Yiluda: Expected to generate cumulative net profit of at least HKD 750 million from 2024 to 2026 [3] Valuation and Forecast - 2024E P/E: 20.1x [1] - 2025E P/E: 16.3x [1] - 2026E P/E: 13.4x [1] - 2024E EPS: RMB 2.88 [1] - 2025E EPS: RMB 3.55 [1] - 2026E EPS: RMB 4.33 [1] Financial Ratios - 2024E ROE: 12% [1] - 2025E ROE: 13% [1] - 2026E ROE: 14% [1] - 2024E debt-to-equity ratio: 47.5% [32] - 2025E debt-to-equity ratio: 140.7% [32] - 2026E debt-to-equity ratio: 53.2% [32]

基本状况 东山精密（002384.SZ） 元件 证券研究报告/公司点评报告 2024 年 10 月 29 日 东山精密：三季度业绩稳健，AI+新能源业务驱动后续成长 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |--------------------------------|---------------------------|-------------|--------|------------------------------------------|--------|--------| | 评级： 买入（维持） | 公司盈利预测及估值 \n指标 | \n2022A | 2023A | 2024E | 2025E | 2026E | | | 营业收入（百万元） | 31,580 | 33,651 | 37,752 | 42,107 | 48,428 | | 分析师：王芳 | 增长率 yoy% | -1% | 7% | 12% | 12% | 15% | | 执业证书编号： S0740521120002 | 归母净利润（百万元） | 2,368 | 1,96 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Zhongfu Shenying is upgraded to "Accumulate" [1] Core Views - The report highlights that the company is facing pressure from weak demand growth, leading to a decline in average prices. However, it is taking multiple measures to enhance competitiveness, including increasing sales efforts and expanding customer base [1][2] - The company is expected to see a rebound in carbon fiber sales as terminal application fields continue to expand, and it is focusing on high-end product output to increase profit margins [1][2] Financial Summary - **Revenue**: The company reported a revenue of 2,259 million in 2023, with a projected decline to 1,646 million in 2024, followed by a recovery to 2,001 million in 2025 and 2,517 million in 2026 [1][2] - **Net Profit**: The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to drop significantly from 318 million in 2023 to 21 million in 2024, before rebounding to 130 million in 2025 and 297 million in 2026 [1][2] - **Earnings Per Share (EPS)**: EPS is projected to decrease from 0.35 in 2023 to 0.02 in 2024, with a recovery to 0.14 in 2025 and 0.33 in 2026 [1][2] - **Return on Equity (ROE)**: The ROE is expected to decline from 0.27 in 2023 to 0.30 in 2024, with a gradual increase to 0.58 in 2025 and 0.90 in 2026 [1][2] Market and Industry Analysis - The report indicates that the domestic carbon fiber apparent consumption has decreased by approximately 12% year-on-year, primarily due to weak terminal demand. The average price of carbon fiber is also under pressure, with estimates suggesting a continued decline [1][2] - The company is expected to enhance its profitability through various measures, including increasing the output of high-end products and expanding the sales volume of lower-tier products while maintaining stable pricing [1][2] - The report notes that the company has successfully developed T700 grade carbon fiber and is making progress in expanding its production capacity, which is expected to support future growth [1][2]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [6]. Core Views - The report indicates that the company's Q3 performance showed stable growth in both volume and price, leading to improved performance compared to the previous quarter. The coal production and sales volume are expected to increase year-on-year [7]. - The report highlights that despite a weak coal price environment, the company managed to increase its self-produced coal prices, indicating a recovery in profitability [7]. - The forecast for 2024-2026 has been adjusted downwards due to weak coal prices, with expected revenues of 150.13 billion, 154.01 billion, and 156.44 billion respectively, and net profits of 27.87 billion, 30.03 billion, and 31.31 billion respectively [7]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company achieved revenue of 112.34 billion yuan, a decrease of 0.19% year-on-year, and a net profit of 21.51 billion yuan, a decrease of 0.62% year-on-year [7]. - In Q3 2024, the company reported revenue of 38.55 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.38% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 3.60% [7]. - The coal production for the first three quarters was 25.79 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 1.47%, while the sales volume was 22.07 million tons, a slight decrease of 0.30% year-on-year [7]. Price and Cost Analysis - The average unit price for coal in the first three quarters was 494 yuan/ton, a slight increase year-on-year, while the unit cost was 262 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.62% year-on-year [7]. - In Q3 2024, the unit price was 492 yuan/ton, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 3.69% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 2.19% [7]. Production Capacity - The company currently has a total production capacity of 34.5 million tons per year from its two controlling coal mines, with a capacity utilization rate of 102.80% in Q3 2024 [7]. - The report anticipates that the company will maintain high production levels in Q4, with a year-on-year increase in total production expected [7]. Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The earnings forecast for 2024-2026 has been revised, with expected earnings per share of 1.67, 1.79, and 1.87 yuan respectively [7]. - The current stock price of 15.45 yuan corresponds to a P/E ratio of 9.3X for 2024, 8.6X for 2025, and 8.3X for 2026 [7].

Core Viewpoints - China Electronics Technology Group Corporation (CETC) is positioned as a national strategic force in technology, focusing on military and information technology fields, with a strong emphasis on R&D and innovation [2][7] - CETC operates across four major business segments: electronic equipment, information systems, industrial foundations, and cybersecurity, with significant achievements in areas like AI, quantum computing, and advanced manufacturing [2][7] - The group has a robust organizational structure with a "three-tier architecture and two-level operation" model, enabling flexible management and continuous incubation of high-quality assets [13] - CETC has 19 listed companies under its umbrella, covering key sectors such as defense, electronics, communications, and cybersecurity, with significant revenue and market capitalization [42][46][47] Business Overview - CETC's business spans electronic equipment, information systems, industrial foundations, and cybersecurity, with a focus on military and civilian applications [2][6] - The group has developed advanced technologies in areas like AI, quantum computing, and advanced manufacturing, with significant contributions to national strategic needs [7] - CETC's financial performance in 2023 includes a revenue of 3970.30 billion yuan, a net profit of 282.65 billion yuan, and a total asset value of 6587.03 billion yuan [8] Organizational Structure - CETC operates under a "three-tier architecture and two-level operation" model, with the group headquarters at the top, sub-groups at the second level, and subsidiary companies at the third level [13] - This structure allows for flexible management and continuous incubation of high-quality assets, with sub-groups having significant autonomy in operations [13] Listed Companies - CETC has 19 listed companies, including Hikvision, Potevio, and CETC Chip, covering sectors such as defense, electronics, communications, and cybersecurity [42] - These companies have shown strong financial performance, with Hikvision reporting a revenue of 893.40 billion yuan and a net profit of 141.08 billion yuan in 2023 [46] - Other notable listed companies include CETC Chip, with a revenue of 15.24 billion yuan, and CETC Digital, with a revenue of 100.01 billion yuan [46][47] Investment Opportunities - CETC's listed platforms, such as Potevio, Guorui Technology, and Tianao Electronics, are recommended for investment due to their strong industry positioning and potential for growth [50] - The group's focus on military and information technology, combined with its strong R&D capabilities, positions it well for future growth and innovation [50] Industry Focus - CETC is heavily focused on the defense and information technology sectors, with significant contributions to national security and technological advancement [2][6] - The group's advancements in AI, quantum computing, and advanced manufacturing are expected to drive future growth and innovation in these sectors [7]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company's performance in Q3 2024 met expectations, with a year-on-year revenue increase of 22.39% to 175.11 billion yuan and a net profit increase of 24.32% to 28.43 billion yuan [1] - The growth in sales volume is attributed to the recovery of orders from sports brands and the ongoing progress in new customer collaborations [1] - The company is expected to maintain its previous profit forecasts, with anticipated net profits for 2024-2026 at 38.6 billion, 44.5 billion, and 50.3 billion yuan respectively [1] Financial Performance Summary - Revenue (in million yuan): - 2022: 20,569 - 2023: 20,114 - 2024E: 24,016 - 2025E: 27,234 - 2026E: 30,638 - Year-on-year growth rates: - 2022: 18% - 2023: -2% - 2024E: 19% - 2025E: 13% - 2026E: 13% [1] - Net profit (in million yuan): - 2022: 3,228 - 2023: 3,200 - 2024E: 3,859 - 2025E: 4,446 - 2026E: 5,032 - Year-on-year growth rates: - 2022: 17% - 2023: -1% - 2024E: 21% - 2025E: 15% - 2026E: 13% [1] - Earnings per share (in yuan): - 2022: 2.77 - 2023: 2.74 - 2024E: 3.31 - 2025E: 3.81 - 2026E: 4.31 [1] Operational Efficiency - The company achieved a gross margin of 27.81% and a net profit margin of 16.24% in Q3 2024, with a year-on-year increase in gross margin of 2.54 percentage points [1] - The operating cash flow for the first three quarters was 42.51 billion yuan, with a significant year-on-year increase [2]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company is experiencing strong growth driven by the expansion of overseas channels and the orderly advancement of new visualization products. The company reported a revenue of 2.012 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 15.31%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 451 million yuan, up 16.70% year-on-year [1][2] - The company is focusing on enhancing its sales management and expanding its product offerings in the visualization segment, which is expected to contribute to future revenue growth. The company is also actively exploring upgrades and improvements to its disposable endoscope products [1][2] Financial Summary - **Revenue Forecasts**: - 2022A: 1,980 million yuan - 2023A: 2,411 million yuan - 2024E: 2,939 million yuan - 2025E: 3,603 million yuan - 2026E: 4,450 million yuan - Year-on-year growth rates: 2% (2022), 22% (2023), 22% (2024), 23% (2025), 23% (2026) [1] - **Net Profit Forecasts**: - 2022A: 331 million yuan - 2023A: 486 million yuan - 2024E: 598 million yuan - 2025E: 744 million yuan - 2026E: 919 million yuan - Year-on-year growth rates: 2% (2022), 47% (2023), 23% (2024), 24% (2025), 23% (2026) [1] - **Earnings Per Share (EPS)**: - 2022A: 1.76 yuan - 2023A: 2.59 yuan - 2024E: 3.18 yuan - 2025E: 3.96 yuan - 2026E: 4.89 yuan [1] - **Valuation Ratios**: - P/E ratios: 41.0 (2022), 27.9 (2023), 22.7 (2024), 18.2 (2025), 14.8 (2026) - P/B ratios: 4.2 (2022), 3.8 (2023), 3.3 (2024), 2.8 (2025), 2.4 (2026) [1] Market Performance - The company's stock price as of October 29, 2024, was 72.20 yuan, with a market capitalization of approximately 13.56 billion yuan [1] - The company has maintained a stable gross margin of 67.64%, with a year-on-year increase of 23.06% [1]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company reported a Q3 gross margin improvement, continuing its focus on high-end product development and edge AI integration [1] - The company is expected to achieve a net profit of 55.5 billion, 65.6 billion, and 75.6 billion for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, corresponding to PE valuations of 19, 16, and 14 times [1] Financial Performance Summary - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company achieved revenue of 51.25 billion, a year-on-year increase of 19.1%, and a net profit of 3.9 billion, a year-on-year increase of 0.5% [1] - In Q3 2024, the company reported revenue of 16.69 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 7.2%, and a net profit of 1.05 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 41.0% [1] - The gross margin for Q3 2024 was 21.7%, a year-on-year decrease of 3.5 percentage points, but improved by 0.8 percentage points quarter-on-quarter [1] Market and Product Development - The company maintained its smartphone shipment volume at over 25 million units in Q3 2024, with a global market share of approximately 8% [1] - The company is focusing on high-end product development, having launched the second generation of its flagship foldable phone series, PHANTOM V Fold2 and V Flip2, featuring new TECNO AI capabilities [1] Future Outlook - The company anticipates that new product launches and holiday promotions will drive sales growth in Q4 2024, with declining raw material prices expected to further enhance gross margins [1]

Core Insights - The report indicates a weakening momentum in the real estate sector, with mixed signals in various high-frequency data points observed from October 21 to October 28, 2024 [2]. Production Analysis - The national blast furnace operating rate increased by 0.46 percentage points week-on-week, but decreased by 3.97 percentage points year-on-year. In Tangshan, the operating rate fell by 0.98 percentage points week-on-week and 16.60 percentage points year-on-year [2]. - The operating rate for automotive steel tires showed mixed results, with a week-on-week increase of 1.78 percentage points for full steel tires but a decrease of 0.08 percentage points for semi-steel tires [2]. - The overall operating rate for chemical fiber production increased, with PX operating rate rising by 2.10 percentage points week-on-week [2]. Demand Analysis - The sales area of commercial housing showed a slight week-on-week increase of 0.06% as of October 28, with first and second-tier cities rising by 9.28% and 6.38% respectively, while third-tier cities saw a decline of 20.45% [2]. - Land transaction area decreased by 12.47% week-on-week, with first-tier cities increasing by 154.73% while second and third-tier cities declined by 6.45% and 18.23% respectively [2]. - The average land premium rate across 100 major cities was 2.66%, down by 4.62 percentage points from the previous week [2]. - Passenger car wholesale daily average sales increased by 14.50% week-on-week to 92,400 units, but showed a year-on-year decline of 7.70% [2]. Price Analysis - Food prices exhibited mixed trends, with wholesale prices for lamb, eggs, and chicken rising by 0.52%, 0.66%, and 1.17% respectively, while pork and beef prices fell by 0.89% and 0.03% [2]. - Commodity prices generally declined, with Brent crude oil futures down by 3.86% week-on-week and WTI crude oil futures down by 4.51% [2]. - The industrial product price index showed mixed results, with the Nanhua Industrial Product Index rising by 1.05% week-on-week [2]. - The exchange rate of the RMB depreciated slightly, with the USD/RMB rate increasing by 0.22% to 7.13 [2].

Investment Rating - The report provides a positive investment rating for the semiconductor industry, particularly highlighting AMD's strong performance in the data center segment [1]. Core Insights - AMD's Q3 2024 performance exceeded market expectations, driven by significant growth in the data center business, which saw a year-over-year increase of 122% [4][17]. - The company is experiencing robust demand for its AI chips, with projected annual revenue exceeding $5 billion, up from a previous estimate of $4.5 billion [5][29]. - AMD's new product launches, including the MI325X GPU and the fifth-generation EPYC processors, are expected to enhance its competitive position in the market [44][48]. Summary by Sections 1. Q3 2024 Financial Performance - AMD reported Q3 2024 revenue of $6.819 billion, a year-over-year increase of 18% and a quarter-over-quarter increase of 17%, surpassing market expectations of $6.71 billion [2][8]. - The data center business generated $3.549 billion, marking a 122% year-over-year growth and a 25% quarter-over-quarter increase [17][29]. - Net profit for the quarter was $771 million, reflecting a 158% year-over-year increase, with a gross margin of 50% [2][4]. 2. Business Segment Performance - **Data Center Business**: Revenue reached $3.549 billion, accounting for 52% of total revenue, with a year-over-year growth of 122% [17][29]. - **Client Business**: Revenue was $1.881 billion, up 29% year-over-year, driven by strong demand for both new and legacy processors [31][34]. - **Gaming Business**: Revenue fell to $462 million, down 69% year-over-year, primarily due to weak demand for semi-custom products [34][37]. - **Embedded Business**: Revenue was $927 million, down 25% year-over-year but up 8% quarter-over-quarter, indicating a recovery in terminal market demand [37][39]. 3. Business Developments - AMD is accelerating the deployment of its MI300X AI chips, with significant adoption by major cloud service providers like Microsoft and Meta [5][29]. - The company has acquired ZT Systems, enhancing its capabilities in AI infrastructure [5][29]. - Upcoming product launches include the MI325X GPU and the fifth-generation EPYC processors, which are expected to outperform competitors in terms of performance and efficiency [44][48].