Group 1 - The report indicates that the A-share market experienced a significant rebound, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 12.81% to 3087.53 points, the Shenzhen Component Index increasing by 17.83%, and the ChiNext Index surging by 22.71% during the week, primarily driven by improved liquidity expectations and strengthened policy outlook [2][7]. - The September Politburo meeting marked a notable shift in policy focus, emphasizing the need to address economic challenges and achieve development goals, which is expected to lead to a medium-term market rebound [2][9]. - The meeting's timing and content suggest a heightened urgency to stabilize the economy, with a clear departure from previous meetings' emphasis on "seeking progress while maintaining stability" to a more proactive approach [2][8][9]. Group 2 - Investment recommendations post-meeting suggest a focus on cyclical and consumer sectors closely tied to economic growth, as the meeting's core message was to prioritize economic development [11]. - The report highlights that real estate policies will be stringent regarding new construction, indicating that downstream consumption and real estate stocks will be key investment themes [11]. - The emphasis on mergers and acquisitions, particularly among state-owned enterprises, is identified as a significant thematic direction for future investments [11]. Group 3 - The report outlines several critical upcoming events that could influence market trends, including the National People's Congress at the end of October, the U.S. presidential election on November 6, and the December Politburo meeting, which will all play pivotal roles in shaping the market's trajectory [10][3]. - The report notes that the current market rebound is not expected to mirror the extensive stimulus measures of 2008, as the focus remains on targeted and effective policy measures rather than broad-based monetary easing [2][9].

Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 12.81% this week, closing at 3087.53 points[2] - The Shenzhen Component Index increased by 17.83% during the same period[2] - The ChiNext Index saw a significant rise of 22.71%, with a single-day increase of 10% on Friday[2] Policy Impact - The September Politburo meeting indicated a shift towards more proactive economic policies, reflecting a stronger urgency to stabilize the economy[2] - The meeting emphasized the need to address economic difficulties and achieve annual development goals, marking a notable change in policy tone[2] - Unlike the "08 flood-like stimulus," the current approach focuses on targeted and effective measures to support economic growth[2] Future Considerations - The upcoming National People's Congress at the end of October will be crucial for determining the issuance of special bonds, which will influence market trends[3] - The outcome of the U.S. presidential election on November 6 will impact export chains and geopolitical risks, affecting market stability[3] - The December Politburo meeting and the Central Economic Work Conference will play a decisive role in shaping the nature of the current market rebound[3] Investment Recommendations - Sectors closely related to economic growth, such as cyclical and consumer stocks, are expected to be the main focus for investment[4] - Real estate stocks and downstream consumption are likely to be key themes, given the strict control on new housing projects[4] - Mergers and acquisitions, particularly among state-owned enterprises, are highlighted as significant investment opportunities[4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the transportation sector [2] Core Views - The transportation sector has shown a weekly increase of 11.1%, underperforming the broader market. The aviation index rose by 15.9%, the logistics composite index by 14.9%, and the airport index by 13.5% [2] - The report highlights a positive outlook for the aviation sector driven by macroeconomic changes, falling oil prices, and a strengthening RMB, with expectations for continued upward movement in airline stocks [5][11] - The upcoming National Day holiday is projected to boost passenger traffic, with an estimated 15.65 million travelers expected, marking a 7% increase year-on-year [5] Summary by Sections Key Targets - Recommended stocks include: - **Jixiang Airlines**: Expected P/E ratios for 2024-2026 are 14.93X, 8.79X, and 8.10X, with a strong performance anticipated due to a dual-brand strategy [11] - **Spring Airlines**: Projected P/E ratios are 17.12X, 13.53X, and 12.70X, benefiting from cost control and market leadership [11] - **Huaxia Airlines**: Expected P/E ratios are 20.79X, 8.87X, and 7.51X, with growth potential in the regional aviation market [11] - **Southern Airlines**: Projected P/E ratios are 34.38X, 12.77X, and 9.72X, focusing on hub development [11] - **China Eastern Airlines**: Expected P/E ratios are 41.65X, 12.29X, and 9.43X, with advantages in international routes [11] - **Shanghai Airport**: Projected P/E ratios are 43.30X, 33.31X, and 26.01X, benefiting from operational synergies [11] Aviation Data Tracking - Daily average flight operations from September 23 to September 27 showed increases for major airlines, with Jixiang Airlines seeing a 14.51% week-on-week increase [4][23] - Average aircraft utilization rates also increased, with Jixiang Airlines achieving 8.30 hours per day, a 12.16% increase week-on-week [32] Airport Data Tracking - Domestic flight operations increased, with Shenzhen Airport reporting a 8.36% week-on-week rise in average daily flights [5] - Passenger throughput data as of August 31 shows significant year-on-year increases across major airports, with Shanghai Airport seeing a 22.24% increase [42]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the transportation sector [2] Core Insights - The transportation sector saw an increase of 11.1% this week, underperforming the broader market. The top-performing sub-sectors included the airline index (15.9%), logistics composite index (14.9%), and airport index (13.5%) [2][10] - The report highlights a positive outlook for the airline sector driven by macroeconomic changes, falling oil prices, and a strengthening RMB, with expectations for continued upward movement in airline stocks [5][11] Summary by Sections Key Targets - Recommended stocks include: - **Jixiang Airlines**: Projected P/E ratios for 2024-2026 are 14.93X, 8.79X, and 8.10X, with expected performance improvement due to strong demand [11] - **Spring Airlines**: Projected P/E ratios for 2024-2026 are 17.12X, 13.53X, and 12.70X, benefiting from cost control and market leadership [11] - **Huaxia Airlines**: Projected P/E ratios for 2024-2026 are 20.79X, 8.87X, and 7.51X, with a focus on regional market growth [11] - **Southern Airlines**: Projected P/E ratios for 2024-2026 are 34.38X, 12.77X, and 9.72X, with a strong recovery expected [11] - **China Eastern Airlines**: Projected P/E ratios for 2024-2026 are 41.65X, 12.29X, and 9.43X, with advantages in international routes [11] - **Shanghai Airport**: Projected P/E ratios for 2024-2026 are 43.30X, 33.31X, and 26.01X, with stable investment returns anticipated [11] Airline Data Tracking - Average daily flights from September 23 to September 27 showed varied increases among major airlines, with Jixiang Airlines seeing a 14.51% week-on-week increase [4][23] - Average aircraft utilization rates increased across most airlines, with Jixiang Airlines achieving 8.30 hours per day, a 12.16% increase week-on-week [4][32] Airport Data Tracking - Domestic flight operations increased, with Shenzhen Bao'an Airport reporting a 8.36% week-on-week rise in average daily flights [5] - Passenger throughput data as of August 31 shows significant year-on-year increases across major airports, with Shanghai Airport seeing a 22.24% increase [42][45]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to the company [3]. Core Views - The company has demonstrated strong revenue and profit growth driven by effective commercialization strategies, with significant evidence supporting a long product lifecycle [2][3]. - The company’s revenue is expected to continue growing, with projections indicating a revenue increase from 791 million in 2024E to 5,264 million by 2026E, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 20.8% [3]. - Net profit is forecasted to rise from 131 million in 2024E to 1,907 million by 2026E, with a CAGR of 21.5% [3]. - The company is positioned to capitalize on the growing market for lung cancer treatments, particularly with its product, Furmetinib, which is expected to achieve peak sales exceeding 5.5 billion [3][33]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company, Shanghai Ailis Pharmaceutical Technology Co., Ltd., was established in March 2004 and focuses on research, production, and marketing in the pharmaceutical sector, particularly in lung cancer treatments [23][25]. Financial Performance - The company reported a revenue of 20.18 billion in 2023, a year-on-year increase of 155%, and a net profit margin of 31.9% [25][26]. - The sales expense ratio has decreased to 45.6% in 2023, contributing to improved profitability [25][28]. Product Pipeline - The company has a robust pipeline, including self-developed products and licensed products, enhancing its market position [29][30]. - Recent agreements for commercialization rights of RET inhibitors and KRAS inhibitors are expected to further strengthen the product lineup [29][30]. Market Potential - The report highlights the increasing incidence of lung cancer in China, with 1.06 million new cases reported in 2022, indicating a significant market opportunity for targeted therapies [33][42]. - The company’s product, Furmetinib, has been approved for both first-line and second-line treatments for non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) and is included in the national medical insurance [42][43]. Competitive Landscape - The company’s third-generation EGFR-TKI, Furmetinib, is positioned favorably against competitors, showing superior progression-free survival (PFS) rates in clinical trials [35][44].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Qingdao Port, expecting a relative increase of over 15% in stock price compared to the benchmark index within the next 6 to 12 months [5]. Core Views - Qingdao Port has received approval from the Shanghai Stock Exchange for its asset acquisition plan, which focuses on liquid bulk cargo, enhancing the company's competitive strength [2][4]. - The acquisition is expected to improve the company's asset quality and earnings per share by excluding less profitable assets and integrating more profitable liquid bulk cargo operations [2][4]. - The report anticipates steady growth in revenue and net profit, with projected net profits of 4,923 million CNY in 2023, increasing to 6,593 million CNY by 2026 [2][4]. Financial Summary - **Revenue Forecast**: - 2023: 18,173 million CNY - 2024E: 19,769 million CNY - 2025E: 21,513 million CNY - 2026E: 23,195 million CNY - Growth Rate: Expected to recover to 9% in 2024 and maintain similar growth rates thereafter [2][4]. - **Net Profit Forecast**: - 2023: 4,923 million CNY - 2024E: 5,419 million CNY - 2025E: 6,014 million CNY - 2026E: 6,593 million CNY - Growth Rate: Expected to grow by 9% in 2024 and 10% in subsequent years [2][4]. - **Earnings Per Share (EPS)**: - 2023: 0.76 CNY - 2024E: 0.83 CNY - 2025E: 0.93 CNY - 2026E: 1.02 CNY [2][4]. - **Return on Equity (ROE)**: Expected to remain stable at around 11% from 2023 to 2026 [2][4]. - **Price-to-Earnings (P/E) Ratio**: Projected to decrease from 10.4 in 2024 to 8.5 in 2026, indicating potential undervaluation [2][4]. - **Price-to-Book (P/B) Ratio**: Expected to decline from 1.4 in 2024 to 1.0 in 2026 [2][4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the banking sector, indicating a positive outlook for the industry [2][12]. Core Views - The recent Politburo meeting reflects a significant increase in high-level attention to the economy, with a clear policy shift towards fiscal measures [5][11]. - The meeting's timing and pace exceeded expectations, suggesting a proactive approach to economic recovery [3][5]. - The focus on fiscal policy is expected to enhance the fundamentals and asset quality of banks, boosting market risk appetite [3][12]. Summary by Sections Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on core banking assets such as Ningbo Bank, China Merchants Bank, and Industrial Bank due to their strong fundamentals [3][12]. - It also recommends selecting undervalued city commercial banks, including Jiangsu Bank, Changshu Bank, Ruifeng Bank, Chongqing Rural Commercial Bank, Shanghai Rural Commercial Bank, Nanjing Bank, and Qilu Bank [3][12]. - Large banks with high dividend yields, such as Agricultural Bank of China, Bank of China, Postal Savings Bank, Industrial and Commercial Bank, and China Construction Bank, are also highlighted as beneficial in a weak economic recovery [3][12]. Key Signals - The meeting's occurrence in September is notable as it is the first economic-themed Politburo meeting since the 18th National Congress, indicating heightened economic concerns [5][6]. - The rapid transition from financial to fiscal policy is faster than market expectations, with significant implications for economic support [5][7]. Policy Direction and Focus Areas - The report emphasizes the need for increased fiscal and monetary policy counter-cyclical adjustments, ensuring necessary fiscal expenditures [7][9]. - Key areas of focus include expanding domestic demand, promoting consumption, and enhancing social welfare, with potential measures for subsidies and support for low-income groups [9][11]. - The report anticipates a significant increase in fiscal policy efforts in the fourth quarter, funded by long-term special bonds and local government bonds [7][9]. Market Impact - The Politburo meeting is expected to improve market sentiment and enhance growth stability, with the potential for a positive feedback loop between capital markets and domestic consumption [11][12]. - Continuous observation of policy implementation, particularly the scale and intensity of fiscal measures, will be crucial for assessing economic recovery [11][12].

Core Viewpoints - The development of the "Big Xinchuang" (信创) industry is an inevitable trend, with a trillion-dollar market opportunity as the industry transitions from government-led "Small Xinchuang" to a broader industry-level "Big Xinchuang" [1] - The domestic substitution rate for foundational software and hardware remains low, with significant room for improvement in areas such as CPUs, operating systems, databases, and middleware [1] - The Xinchuang market is expected to reach 4.23 trillion yuan by 2027, driven by both policy and market forces [1] Investment Recommendations - Key areas to focus on include operating systems (e.g., China Software, Chenmai Tech), databases (e.g., Dameng Data, Taiji), middleware (e.g., TongTech, Zhongchuang), and chips (e.g., Yuntian Lifei) [2] - Other sectors with potential include ERP (e.g., Yonyou, Kingdee), office software (e.g., Kingsoft Office, Foxit), industrial software (e.g., ZWSOFT, Huada Jiutian), and financial IT (e.g., Hundsun, Vertex) [2] Xinchuang Market Development - Xinchuang covers a wide range of computer fields, including foundational hardware, middleware, and application software, with both direct and indirect beneficiaries [3] - The industry has evolved from localized upgrades to full-scale promotion, with significant milestones such as the 79th document from SASAC in 2022, which mandates 100% Xinchuang substitution for state-owned enterprises by 2027 [6][7] Policy Support - National and local governments have issued numerous policies to support Xinchuang, with a focus on accelerating the adoption of domestic technologies in key sectors such as finance, telecommunications, and energy [8][9][10] - Local governments have also introduced specific incentives, including subsidies for R&D, production, and talent recruitment, to boost the Xinchuang industry [9][10] Industry Expansion - The Xinchuang industry is transitioning from government-led initiatives to broader industry adoption, with sectors like finance, telecommunications, and power leading the way [12] - The market is expected to grow rapidly, with the overall Xinchuang market size projected to exceed 1 trillion yuan in 2023 and reach 4.23 trillion yuan by 2027 [16] Foundational Software and Hardware - The domestic substitution rate for foundational software and hardware remains low, with CPUs, storage devices, and operating systems having substitution rates below 10% [19] - The domestic operating system market is expected to grow significantly, with the market size projected to reach 8.48 billion yuan by 2028 [23] Operating Systems - Domestic operating systems are transitioning from "usable" to "user-friendly," with significant progress in areas like compatibility and ecosystem development [26] - Key players in the domestic operating system market include Kirin Software, UnionTech, and Huawei, with HarmonyOS showing rapid growth in the mobile OS market [21][22] Databases - The domestic database market is growing rapidly, with the market size expected to reach 1.29 trillion yuan by 2027, driven by new technologies like cloud-native and AI-native databases [36][38] - Domestic database vendors are gaining market share, with companies like Dameng Data, Huawei, and Alibaba leading the way [39] Middleware - The domestic middleware market is expected to reach 14.42 billion yuan by 2026, with domestic vendors like TongTech and Zhongchuang gaining market share [46][47] - Key trends in the middleware industry include the integration of middleware with PaaS platforms and the increasing adoption of open-source solutions [52][53] Chips - The domestic CPU market is dominated by Intel and AMD, but domestic players like Loongson, Huawei, and Phytium are making progress, with significant growth potential [58][59] - In the GPU market, Nvidia dominates, but domestic players like Jingjia Micro and Biren Tech are emerging, though the industry is still in its early stages [61][63]

[Table_Industry] 证券研究报告/月度报告 2024 年 9 月 26 日 财政逆周期调节如何加力 ——2024 年 9 月政治局会议解读 [Table_Main] [Table_Title] 分析师：张德礼 [Table_Summary] 要点 执业证书编号：S0740523040001 ◼ 每年 9 月政治局会议中，以经济为主题的并不多见。和 9 月 24 日三部委新 闻发布会一样，这种超预期的安排，释放了改善预期、稳定经济和提振市场 的积极信号。 ◼ 货币金融和地产领域的新政策，9 月 24 日的新闻发布会已经做了预告。目前 市场最关心的是，年内是否会有增量财政工具，本次会议没有给出明确的答 案。 ◼ 我们认为，从支出空间看，不排除四季度出台增量财政工具的可能。 ◼ 今年 7 月政治局会议要求"实施好积极的财政政策"，9 月政治局会议要求 "加大财政货币政策逆周期调节力度，保证必要的财政支出，切实做好基层 '三保'工作。"对比来看，对于财政的部署明显更积极。 相关报告 ◼ 今年 1-8 月，公共财政赤字使用率为 42.4%，和过去四年同期相比，仅次于 2 022 年同期（47.6%）。减收 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) with a market price of 8.43 HKD [1]. Core Views - The company has shown stable revenue growth, with its BaaS (Business as a Service) business performing particularly well. In H1 2024, the company achieved revenue of 1.321 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 6.3% [3]. - The gross margin remains high at 73.19%, reflecting a focus on AI technology research and development [3]. - The company has successfully integrated AI applications with its products, enhancing performance and reducing response times significantly [3]. - The financial forecasts for 2024-2026 have been adjusted, with expected revenues of 29.55 billion CNY, 32.88 billion CNY, and 36.93 billion CNY respectively, and net profits of 3.05 billion CNY, 3.98 billion CNY, and 4.78 billion CNY [3]. Financial Performance Summary - Revenue (in million CNY): - 2022A: 2,062 - 2023A: 2,681 - 2024E: 2,955 - 2025E: 3,288 - 2026E: 3,693 - Year-on-year growth rates: - 2022A: 26% - 2023A: 30% - 2024E: 10% - 2025E: 11% - 2026E: 12% [1]. - Net Profit (in million CNY): - 2022A: 240 - 2023A: 340 - 2024E: 305 - 2025E: 398 - 2026E: 478 - Year-on-year growth rates: - 2022A: 107% - 2023A: 42% - 2024E: -10% - 2025E: 31% - 2026E: 20% [1]. - The company’s P/E ratios are projected to be 15.6, 11.0, 12.3, 9.4, and 7.8 for the years 2023 to 2026 respectively [1].