Investment Rating - The investment rating for Shanxi Coking Coal (000983.SZ) is "Buy" (maintained) [1]. Core Views - The report indicates that the company's performance has been negatively impacted by a decline in coal prices due to production and sales disruptions. However, the acquisition of exploration rights has enhanced the company's resource base, which is expected to support sustainable development [1][2]. Financial Performance Summary - **Revenue Forecasts**: - 2022A: 65,183 million - 2023A: 55,523 million (down 15% YoY) - 2024E: 45,249 million (down 19% YoY) - 2025E: 49,530 million (up 9% YoY) - 2026E: 51,849 million (up 5% YoY) [1][2] - **Net Profit Forecasts**: - 2022A: 10,722 million - 2023A: 6,771 million (down 37% YoY) - 2024E: 3,553 million (down 48% YoY) - 2025E: 4,649 million (up 31% YoY) - 2026E: 5,095 million (up 10% YoY) [1][2] - **Earnings Per Share (EPS)**: - 2022A: 1.89 - 2023A: 1.19 - 2024E: 0.63 - 2025E: 0.82 - 2026E: 0.90 [1][2] Operational Insights - The company faced production disruptions due to safety incidents at its coal mines, which affected its output. The report notes that the company is expected to recover production levels gradually [1][2]. - The report highlights that the company successfully acquired exploration rights for coal and associated bauxite resources, which is anticipated to bolster its competitive advantage and resource reserves [1][2]. Market Comparison - The report mentions that the company's stock price as of October 30, 2024, was 8.28 yuan, with a market capitalization of approximately 47,006.40 million [1][2]. Valuation Metrics - **Price-to-Earnings (P/E) Ratio**: - 2022A: 4.4 - 2023A: 6.9 - 2024E: 13.2 - 2025E: 10.1 - 2026E: 9.2 [1][2] - **Price-to-Book (P/B) Ratio**: - 2022A: 1.4 - 2023A: 1.2 - 2024E: 1.3 - 2025E: 1.3 - 2026E: 1.3 [1][2]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the industry [1] Core Insights - The transportation sector has shown a weekly increase of 1.7%, outperforming the broader market, with notable gains in the aviation index (7.9%), bus index (4.3%), and shipping index (3.2) [2] - The report highlights the upcoming increase in flights to Canada and the ongoing expansion of visa-free policies, which are expected to boost international flight recovery [2][3] - The overall trend in the industry is positive, with improved flight operation efficiency and a favorable supply-demand balance anticipated as international routes continue to recover [2] Summary by Sections Key Targets - Recommended stocks include: - **Juneyao Airlines**: Projected P/E ratios for 2024-2026 are 15.32X, 9.02X, and 8.31X, benefiting from a dual-brand strategy and strong summer travel demand [11] - **Spring Airlines**: Projected P/E ratios for 2024-2026 are 21.55X, 17.58X, and 13.79X, recognized for its cost control and leading position in low-cost travel [11] - **China Southern Airlines**: Projected P/E ratios for 2024-2026 are 66.22X, 11.65X, and 8.99X, focusing on building comprehensive international hubs [11] - **China Eastern Airlines**: Projected P/E ratios for 2024-2026 are 40.59X, 11.98X, and 9.19X, with advantages in domestic and international routes [11] - **Hainan Airlines**: Projected P/E ratios for 2024-2026 are 24.72X, 10.55X, and 8.94X, entering a performance rebound phase [11] Aviation Data Tracking - As of September 30, the civil aviation passenger volume was 0.60 billion, a month-on-month decrease of 0.13 billion but a year-on-year increase of 0.06 billion [12] - The average passenger load factor for civil aviation was 83.90%, down 3.00 percentage points month-on-month but up 5.40 percentage points year-on-year [21] - The civil aviation cargo and mail transport volume reached 800,000 tons, a month-on-month increase of 3,600 tons and a year-on-year increase of 98,000 tons [13]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1][3][11] Core Views - The company's revenue performance is influenced by downstream demand and exchange rate fluctuations, with ongoing expansion in interior products such as ceilings [3] - The company is expected to achieve revenue growth of 19% in 2024, with projected revenues of 6,975 million yuan, and a net profit of 844 million yuan, reflecting a 29% year-over-year increase [1][3] - The company's global strategy and cost control capabilities are seen as key drivers for future growth, particularly in the ceiling and interior product categories [3] Revenue and Profit Forecast - Revenue (in million yuan) is projected to be 5,861 in 2023, 6,975 in 2024, 8,370 in 2025, and 9,960 in 2026, with year-over-year growth rates of 14%, 19%, 20%, and 19% respectively [1][3] - Net profit (in million yuan) is forecasted to be 654 in 2023, 844 in 2024, 1,022 in 2025, and 1,226 in 2026, with year-over-year growth rates of 15%, 29%, 21%, and 20% respectively [1][3] Financial Metrics - The company's gross margin for Q3 2024 is reported at 28.83%, showing an improvement due to a better product mix [3] - Earnings per share (EPS) is expected to increase from 0.40 in 2023 to 0.51 in 2024, and further to 0.62 in 2025 and 0.74 in 2026 [1][3][8] - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is projected to decrease from 23.7 in 2023 to 18.3 in 2024, and further to 15.1 in 2025 and 12.6 in 2026 [1][3]

Investment Rating - Buy (Maintained) [1] Core Views - The company is at a significant turning point in its performance, with the disposal of loss-making assets and the resolution of impairment burdens [1] - The seat business has reached a profitability inflection point and is entering a large-scale phase, with cumulative seat project orders reaching 18 as of July 31, 2024 [1] - The overseas asset Grammer has also reached a profitability inflection point, with the disposal of TMD, a major loss-making subsidiary, expected to significantly improve Grammer's performance [1] - The company is a leading domestic seat manufacturer, with strong potential for both local and global substitution in the passenger car seat market [1] Financial Performance - Revenue for the first three quarters of 2024 reached RMB 16.91 billion, a year-on-year increase of 6.1%, with a net loss attributable to the parent company of RMB 530 million [1] - In Q3 2024, revenue was RMB 5.9 billion, a year-on-year increase of 7.2%, with a net loss attributable to the parent company of RMB 585 million [1] - The Q3 loss was mainly due to impairment provisions for assets held for sale, overseas layoff expenses, and increased financial expenses from exchange rate losses [1] Profitability and Valuation - Revenue is expected to grow from RMB 21.571 billion in 2023 to RMB 30.583 billion in 2026, with a CAGR of 12.3% [1] - Net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to turn positive in 2025, reaching RMB 1.008 billion, and further increase to RMB 1.278 billion in 2026 [1] - EPS is projected to be -0.33 in 2024, 0.80 in 2025, and 1.01 in 2026 [1] - P/E ratios are forecasted at -40.9x for 2024, 16.7x for 2025, and 13.2x for 2026 [1] Business Highlights - The seat business has achieved full coverage of new energy vehicle, domestic, and joint venture customers, with 18 cumulative seat project orders as of July 31, 2024 [1] - The seat business achieved revenue of RMB 655 million in 2023 and nearly RMB 900 million in the first half of 2024, with the first quarterly profit in Q2 2024 [1] - The disposal of TMD, a major loss-making subsidiary of Grammer, is expected to significantly improve Grammer's performance, with TMD's losses totaling EUR 64.6 million from 2021 to 2023 [1] Industry Outlook - The passenger car seat market is characterized by large space, good structure, and accelerated consumption upgrades, with global CR5 exceeding 85% and domestic CR5 exceeding 70% [1] - The company is expected to leverage its cost advantages, rapid response capabilities, and Grammer's global resources to lead the local substitution and global expansion in the passenger car seat market [1]

慕思股份（001323.SZ） 家居用品 证券研究报告/公司点评报告 2024 年 10 月 30 日 前三季度营收微增，关注 Q4 订单改善 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |-------------------------------|--------|---------------------------|-------------|-------|------------------------------------------|-------|-------| | 评级： 买入（维持） | | 公司盈利预测及估值 \n指标 | \n2022A | 2023A | 2024E | 2025E | 2026E | | 分析师：郭美鑫 | | 营业收入（百万元） | 5,813 | 5,579 | 5,751 | 6,414 | 7,112 | | | | 增长率 yoy% | -10% | -4% | 3% | 12% | 11% | | 执业证书编号： S0740520090002 | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 709 | 8 ...

伯特利（603596.SH） 汽车零部件 证券研究报告/公司点评报告 2024 年 11 月 01 日 毛利率环比提升，智能电控放量较好 ——伯特利 2024 年三季报点评 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |--------------------------------------------------------------------|-------------|----------------------------------|---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ...

千味央厨（001215.SZ） 食品加工 证券研究报告/公司点评报告 2024 年 11 月 01 日 执业证书编号：S0740517030001 Email：fanjs@zts.com.cn 报告摘要 事件：公司发布 2024 年三季报。24 年前 3 季度，公司实现营业总收入 13.64 亿 元，同比+2.70%；归母净利润 0.82 亿元，同比-13.49%；扣非归母净利润 0.81 亿 元，同比-1.25%。3Q24，公司实现营业总收入 4.72 亿元，同比-1.17%；实现归母 净利润 0.22 亿元，同比-42.08%；扣非归母净利润 0.23 亿元，同比-23.54%。 需求偏淡，收入承压。3Q24，公司营收同比下滑 1.17%，环比增加 10%，需求展现 出一定的旺季不旺特征，对公司营收增长形成一定压力，静待下游餐饮景气度企 稳回暖。 费用投放有所加大，盈利能力仍旧承压。3Q24，公司毛利率为 22.44%，同比 +0.04pcts；公司销售/管理/研发/财务费用率为 4.89%/9.26%/1.28%/-0.07%，同 比+0.81/+1.19/+0.15/-0.41pcts，费用投放有所加 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1] Core Views - The company achieved a record high revenue of 2.86 billion yuan in Q3 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 68.3% [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders reached 370 million yuan, up 102.5% year-on-year [1] - The company is expected to continue its upward revenue trajectory in Q4, driven by increased orders from major clients such as Li Auto, Geely, and BYD [1] Financial Performance Summary - **Revenue Forecasts**: - 2023A: 2,600 million yuan - 2024E: 3,937 million yuan (growth rate of 51%) - 2025E: 5,551 million yuan (growth rate of 41%) - 2026E: 6,662 million yuan (growth rate of 20%) [1][2] - **Net Profit Forecasts**: - 2023A: 309 million yuan - 2024E: 538 million yuan (growth rate of 74.5%) - 2025E: 730 million yuan (growth rate of 35.7%) - 2026E: 877 million yuan (growth rate of 20.1%) [1][2] - **Earnings Per Share (EPS)**: - 2023A: 0.76 yuan - 2024E: 1.33 yuan - 2025E: 1.80 yuan - 2026E: 2.17 yuan [1][2] - **Gross Margin**: - 2023: 25.5% - 2024E: 27.3% - 2025E: 27.0% - 2026E: 27.0% [2] Market Position and Client Base - The company has established strong relationships with major clients, including Li Auto, Geely, and BYD, which are expected to drive continued growth [1] - The company is positioned to benefit from the increasing demand for modular body components in the automotive sector [1]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 3.4 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 11.7% [1] - The third quarter revenue was 9.6 billion yuan, showing a quarter-on-quarter increase of 26.9% [1] - The company is expected to benefit from the recovery in customer demand and the ramp-up of new projects, particularly with major clients like Tesla [1] - The company is actively expanding its production capacity in integrated die-casting and lightweight vehicle body projects to meet customer needs [1] Financial Summary - Revenue (million yuan): - 2022A: 3,355 - 2023A: 3,959 - 2024E: 4,628 - 2025E: 5,218 [1] - Year-on-year growth rate for revenue: - 2022A: 21% - 2023A: 1% - 2024E: 17% - 2025E: 13% [1] - Net profit attributable to the parent company (million yuan): - 2022A: 446 - 2023A: 509 - 2024E: 614 - 2025E: 712 [1] - Year-on-year growth rate for net profit: - 2022A: 16% - 2023A: 2% - 2024E: 21% - 2025E: 16% [1] - Earnings per share (yuan): - 2022A: 1.87 - 2023A: 2.13 - 2024E: 2.57 - 2025E: 2.98 [1] - Price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio: - 2023A: 13.7 - 2024E: 12.0 - 2025E: 9.9 - 2026E: 8.6 [1] - Price-to-book (P/B) ratio: - 2023A: 1.3 - 2024E: 1.1 - 2025E: 1.0 [1]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company's Q3 2024 performance was impacted by exchange rate fluctuations, with a revenue of 14.36 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 18.9% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 11.0%. The net profit attributable to the parent company was 390 million yuan, up 6.4% year-on-year but down 23.1% quarter-on-quarter [1][2] - The consumer electronics business continues to perform well, supported by a gradual recovery in global smartphone sales, with IDC reporting an increase in global smartphone shipments [2] - The company has adjusted its accounting policy regarding warranty costs, which has affected the gross margin calculation, indicating better underlying performance than reported [2] Financial Summary - Revenue projections for 2024-2026 are 54.92 billion yuan, 64.19 billion yuan, and 74.07 billion yuan, respectively, with growth rates of 15%, 17%, and 15% [1] - The net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted to be 1.67 billion yuan in 2024, 2.06 billion yuan in 2025, and 2.44 billion yuan in 2026, with growth rates of 55%, 24%, and 18% respectively [1] - The company's P/E ratio is projected to decrease from 25.2 in 2024 to 17.3 in 2026, indicating an improving valuation [1] Market and Business Outlook - The report highlights that the global smartphone market is expected to reach 1.23 billion units in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 5.8%, driven by the rollout of AI features and increasing replacement demand [2] - The company's self-supply ratio for 3C battery cells is expected to continue increasing, and it aims to expand its client base in the laptop battery segment, which is anticipated to lead to rapid growth in the consumer electronics business [2]