[Table_Industry] 证券研究报告/月度报告 2024 年 9 月 1 日 工业企业延续被动补库 ——2024 年 8 月 PMI 数据解读 [Table_Summary] 要点 [Table_Main] [Table_Title] 分析师：张德礼 执业证书编号：S0740523040001 ◼ 2024 年 8 月 31 日，国家统计局公布 8 月官方 PMI 指数，制造业 PMI 为 49. 1%，较前值回落 0.3 个百分点，经济景气度延续放缓趋势；非制造业 PMI 为 50.3%，较前值小幅回升 0.1 个百分点，暑期对服务业的拉动效果显著。 ◼ 从分项指数来看，构成制造业 PMI 的五个分类指数均拖累制造业 PMI，其中 8 月生产指数、新订单指数分别为 49.8%、48.9%，较前值分别下滑 0.3、0.4 个百分点，经济呈现供需双弱之势，二者合计拖累制造业 PMI 达 0.2 个百分 点。8 月生产指数结束了连续 5 个月在扩张区间的趋势，有效需求不足对工 业生产的制约已经愈发明显。新订单指数连续四个月处于收缩区间，生产端 降幅小于需求端，供需缺口有所走阔。 ◼ 高技术制造业和装备制 ...

Group 1: Banking Sector Overview - The banking sector's revenue growth is under pressure, with a year-on-year decline of 2.2% in 1H24, while profit growth has turned positive at 0.4% [2][3] - The net interest income has decreased by 3.4% year-on-year, with a marginal decline in net interest margin by 21 basis points [2][3] - The overall asset quality remains stable, with a non-performing loan (NPL) ratio of 1.25% in 1H24, maintaining historical lows [2][3] Group 2: Game Industry Insights - The gaming sector is currently at a favorable configuration point, with monthly year-on-year growth rates showing signs of recovery and valuations at low levels [3] - The performance of the gaming sector in Q4 2023 was weak, providing a low base for year-on-year comparisons in Q4 2024, which is expected to improve significantly [3] - The successful launch of "Black Myth: Wukong" has positively influenced the perception of gaming culture and has contributed to policy improvements, with a record number of game licenses issued [3] Group 3: Local Government Debt Observations - In August, local government debt issuance totaled 11,996 billion, with a net financing amount of 8,193 billion, marking an increase compared to the previous year [4] - The average issuance term for local government bonds increased to 14.3 years in August, indicating a longer-term financing strategy [4] - The overall secondary market yield spread for local government bonds narrowed to 5.53 basis points, reflecting improved market conditions [4]

、 [评Ta级ble：_M增ai持n] （维持） 分析师：孙行臻 执业证书编号：S0740524030002 政策进度：党政信创重启，自主可控是长期趋势。 Email：sunxz@zts.com.cn 上市公司数 332 行业总市值(亿元) 26672.24 行业流通市值(亿元) 14662.42 落地进展：数字化转型+信创全面发展，国产化进展加速落地。节奏方面，各大领 域节奏稳步推进，党政、金融保持领先，电信、电力加快节奏。市场方面，中国信 创市场规模有望从 2023 年 1.54 万亿元增至 2.66 万亿元，预计 CAGR 达到 20%。 基础设施：安可标准加速出台，信创电脑新品频出。1）中科可控全新 AI 工作站 N 40A 与 W40A，搭载海光 3 号 CPU。2）华为官网全网首发信创搭载麒麟芯片台式 电脑。3）诚迈科技发布搭载龙芯 3A6000 信创电脑"望龙电脑"。4）软通动力收 购同方计算机，新推出同方超炫 1600 AI 工作站和超翔 TF830-V050-1 台式机。 基础软件：纯血鸿蒙问世，国产数据库加速渗透。1）华为 HDC2024 发布国产 自研操作系统。2）统信 UOS 发布桌面 ...

重申：贵金属看涨逻辑不变，大宗金属有望长期高景气 行业-市场走势对比 行业评级：增持（维持） 投资要点 分析师：郭中伟 执业证书编号：S0740521110004 Email：guozw@zts.com.cn 分析师：谢鸿鹤 执业证书编号：S0740517080003 Email：xiehh@zts.com.cn 分析师：刘耀齐 执业证书编号：S0740523080004 Email：liuyq@zts.com.cn 分析师：陈沁一 执业证书编号：S0740523090001 Email：chenqy01@zts.com.cn 基本状况 | --- | --- | |-----------------------|-----------| | | | | 上市公司数 | 131 | | 行业总市值 ( 亿元 ) | 24,886.15 | | | | | 行业流通市值 ( 亿元 ) | 22,002.84 | -30% -25% -20% -15% -10% -5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 有色金属（申万） 沪深300 2023-092023-102023-112023-122024-012024-022 ...

评级：增持(维持) 执业证书编号：S0740523030001 Email：zhangxiao06@zts.com.cn 分析师：郭美鑫 执业证书编号：S0740520090002 Email：guomx@zts.com.cn 分析师：邹文婕 执业证书编号：S0740523070001 Email：zouwj@zts.com.cn 分析师：吴思涵 执业证书编号：S0740523090002 Email：wush@zts.com.cn 上周行情：2024/8/26-2024/8/30 上证指数-0.43%，深证成指 2.04%，轻工制造指数 2.89%，在 28 个申万行业中排名第 7；纺织服装指数 2%，在 28 个申万行业中排名第 15。轻工制造指数细分行业涨跌幅分别为：文娱用品（4.8%），造纸（3.75%），包 装印刷（3.34%），家居用品（1.53%）。纺织服装指数细分行业涨跌幅分别为：饰 品（4.89%），纺织制造（2.02%），服装家纺（0.94%）。 [基Ta本ble状_P况rofit] 轻工公司数（申万分类） 152 轻工行业总市值（亿元） 6,925 轻工行业流通市值（亿元） 2,782 ...

Core Insights - The report highlights that the three major telecom operators in China, namely China Mobile, China Telecom, and China Unicom, achieved stable revenue and profit growth in the first half of 2024, with revenues of CNY 546.7 billion, CNY 266 billion, and CNY 197.3 billion respectively, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 3.0%, 2.8%, and 2.9% [2][3] - The net profits for these operators were CNY 80.2 billion, CNY 21.8 billion, and CNY 6 billion, showing year-on-year increases of 5.3%, 8.2%, and 10.9%, indicating that profit growth outpaced revenue growth [2][3] - Emerging business revenues reached CNY 227.9 billion, growing by 11.4% year-on-year, which now accounts for 25.5% of total telecom business revenue, demonstrating an ongoing optimization of revenue structure [2][3] Telecom Operators Performance - The cash flow from operations for the telecom operators remained robust, indicating a healthy financial position [2] - Consumer data traffic has faced pressure, but there is potential for improvement due to anticipated increases in application traffic driven by AIGC [2][3] - The average revenue per user (ARPU) for mobile services has declined, primarily due to reductions in corporate communication benefits, but is expected to recover as new applications emerge [2][3] Future Outlook - The report suggests that the three major operators are likely to increase their dividend payouts, with China Mobile and China Telecom aiming for a payout ratio of 75% over the next three years [2][3] - Capital expenditures are expected to decrease, and the lengthening of depreciation periods will contribute to improved profit margins [2][3] - The current valuation metrics for the telecom operators, including price-to-book (PB) and price-to-earnings (PE) ratios, are lower than global comparables, indicating potential undervaluation alongside high dividend yields [2][3] AI and Emerging Business Growth - The telecom operators are focusing on AI computing and model monetization, with cloud computing growth rates around 20%, driven by market demand shifting towards AI capabilities [2][3] - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring the progress of AI-related business developments as a key growth area for the operators [2][3]

Investment Rating - The report suggests a focus on Hong Kong-listed China Mobile, China Telecom, and China Unicom, as well as their A-share counterparts [3]. Core Insights - The overall revenue and net profit of the operators showed steady growth in the first half of 2024, with revenue structures continuously optimizing. China Mobile, China Telecom, and China Unicom reported revenues of CNY 546.7 billion, CNY 266.0 billion, and CNY 197.3 billion respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 3.0%, 2.8%, and 2.9%. Net profits were CNY 80.2 billion, CNY 21.8 billion, and CNY 6.0 billion, reflecting year-on-year growth of 5.3%, 8.2%, and 10.9% respectively, indicating that profit growth outpaced revenue growth [2][3][8]. Summary by Sections 1. Mid-Year Analysis - The revenue growth of the telecom operators has slowed down due to macroeconomic factors and demographic changes, with a notable peak in revenue during 2021-2022 driven by rapid 5G user growth [7]. 2. Business Analysis - C-end data traffic business faced pressure but is expected to improve, while H-end user numbers and ARPU remained stable. The B-end is anticipated to benefit from new growth driven by AI computing and models [2][39]. 3. Operational Governance - The operators are expected to increase dividends, with China Mobile and China Telecom aiming for a 75% payout ratio over the next three years. Capital expenditures are decreasing, and the depreciation ratio is declining, which will enhance profit margins [2][76][72]. 4. Investment Recommendations - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring the developments in AI computing and models, as well as the operators' ability to maintain healthy cash flows and manage accounts receivable effectively [2][14][61]. 5. Future Outlook - The operators are projected to maintain stable performance, with revenue growth closely tied to macroeconomic conditions. The reduction in capital expenditures and extended depreciation periods are expected to support steady growth in earnings [86].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, suggesting a positive outlook for investment opportunities [5]. Core Insights - The bank's net interest income increased by 2.7% quarter-on-quarter, driven by a stabilization in net interest margin, although non-interest income has negatively impacted net profit growth [3][7]. - The bank's asset quality remains stable, with provisions increasing, and the non-performing loan ratio holding steady at 1.32% [23]. - The bank's loan growth is primarily focused on infrastructure projects, with a notable increase in personal loans, while deposit levels have seen a significant decline [15][16]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Total revenue for 2023 is projected at 240,219 million, with a slight decline of 0.9% year-on-year [3]. - Net profit for 2023 is estimated at 92,177 million, reflecting a modest growth of 0.6% year-on-year [3]. - Earnings per share (EPS) is expected to be 0.99, with a return on equity (ROE) of 10.53% [3]. Net Interest Income - In Q2, net interest income rose by 2.7%, with the net interest margin increasing by 3 basis points to 1.28% [4][13]. - The asset yield decreased by 5 basis points to 3.41%, while the liability cost fell by 8 basis points to 2.24% [4][13]. Loan and Deposit Growth - In Q2, the bank's loan issuance totaled 645.1 billion, a decrease of 497.9 billion year-on-year, with a focus on personal loans [15]. - The bank's total deposits decreased by 1818.5 billion in Q2, with a significant drop in corporate deposits [16][20]. Asset Quality - The non-performing loan ratio remained stable at 1.32%, with a slight increase in the overdue rate to 1.45% [23]. - The provision coverage ratio improved to 207.29%, indicating a stronger buffer against potential loan losses [23]. Non-Interest Income - Non-interest income saw a significant decline of 16.9% year-on-year, primarily due to reduced income from agency services and investment banking [21][22]. - The bank's fee income from various services, including credit card and investment banking, experienced substantial drops [21][22]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that the bank's valuation metrics, such as price-to-earnings (P/E) and price-to-book (P/B) ratios, indicate an attractive investment opportunity, with P/B ratios projected at 0.54X for 2024 [5].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, expecting a relative increase of over 15% in the stock price compared to the benchmark index over the next 6 to 12 months [6]. Core Views - The company's toll revenue has declined, putting pressure on its performance, but the dividend yield remains attractive [1]. - In the first half of 2024, the company achieved an operating income of 12.137 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.16%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 1.632 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 7.23% [2][4]. - The company is actively investing in key projects, with significant progress in expansion projects expected to enhance long-term growth in toll revenue [2][4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - The company reported operating income of 18,486 million yuan in 2022, with a projected increase to 26,546 million yuan in 2023, reflecting a growth rate of 44% [2]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to grow from 2,855 million yuan in 2022 to 3,297 million yuan in 2023, marking a 15% increase [2]. - The earnings per share (EPS) is projected to rise from 0.59 yuan in 2023 to 0.68 yuan in 2024 [2]. Investment Highlights - The company has invested approximately 1.17 billion yuan in key engineering projects in the first half of 2024, with significant completion rates in various construction phases [2]. - The completion of expansion projects is anticipated to lead to increased traffic flow and improved toll standards, contributing to the company's long-term growth potential [2][4]. Market Position - The company's stock price is currently at 9.08 yuan, with a market capitalization of 44,057 million yuan [2]. - The report indicates that the company maintains a stable dividend policy, with a projected dividend payout ratio of at least 60% of the net profit attributable to shareholders [2][4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a market price of 17.23 [1][5]. Core Insights - The company is expected to see significant capacity release in the second half of the year, driven by the successful implementation of two large forging machines, which will enhance its commercial and civil engineering projects [3][4]. - Despite a slight decline in revenue and net profit in the first half of 2024, the company’s profitability metrics, such as gross margin and net margin, have shown improvement, indicating a positive trend in operational efficiency [3][4]. - The company has secured long-term contracts with major clients, including Safran and Boeing, which are expected to contribute to revenue growth in the civil aviation sector [3][4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In the first half of 2024, the company reported revenue of 5.472 billion yuan, a decrease of 0.59% year-on-year, and a net profit of 723 million yuan, down 7.02% year-on-year [3]. - The second quarter of 2024 saw revenue of 2.824 billion yuan, a decline of 10.75% year-on-year, with a net profit of 401 million yuan, down 20.81% year-on-year [3]. - The company achieved 46% of its annual revenue and profit targets in the first half of 2024 [3]. Capacity and Orders - The company is set to release capacity from two large forging machines in the second half of 2024, which will support its growth in commercial and civil engineering projects [3][4]. - The company has signed long-term contracts worth approximately 70 million yuan with Safran, Baker Hughes, and Rolls-Royce, and has also established collaborations with Boeing for titanium alloy components [3][4]. Business Segments - The hydraulic and control business has shown stable growth, with revenue of 1.076 billion yuan in the first half of 2024, an increase of 8.65% year-on-year [3]. - The company’s civil aviation revenue grew by 112.62% year-on-year, while its civil products business revenue increased by 26.25% year-on-year, indicating diversification in its business operations [3][4]. Future Outlook - The company’s revenue projections for 2024-2026 are adjusted to 11.956 billion yuan, 13.798 billion yuan, and 15.649 billion yuan, respectively, with net profits expected to be 1.541 billion yuan, 1.779 billion yuan, and 2.095 billion yuan [5]. - The expected earnings per share (EPS) for 2024-2026 are 1.04 yuan, 1.20 yuan, and 1.41 yuan, with corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of 17X, 14X, and 12X [5].