Core View - The strategy proposes a method to determine buy points for stocks that have ended their upward trend and entered a downward trend, using the golden ratio (0.618 and 0.8) as key levels for entry [2] - The strategy incorporates the concept of "Chan Theory" to precisely identify buy points by segmenting price movements rather than relying solely on fixed parameters [2] - From 2015 to June 2024, the strategy executed 1,043 trades with a win rate of 57.8%, a profit-to-loss ratio of 2.26, and a median holding period of 19 trading days [2] Golden Ratio - The golden ratio (0.618) is widely used in technical analysis, with other common ratios including 0.5, 0.382, and 0.809 [4] - These ratios are used as fixed parameters in investment strategies, despite lacking rigorous theoretical foundations [4] Golden Ratio in A-Shares - Historical data from the Shanghai Composite Index shows that after a monthly-level bull market ends, subsequent monthly-level declines often rebound near the 61.8% golden ratio level [5] - For individual stocks with monthly-level declines exceeding 50%, the average rebound level is around 60.6% [5] Strategy Details - The strategy uses logarithmic coordinates and identifies monthly-level highs and lows within a 50-month period to draw an upward trend line [6] - Buy points are determined when the price falls below the 0.618 and 0.8 levels of the trend line, with additional confirmation from MACD indicators [6] - The strategy incorporates grid trading principles and combines monthly and daily level analysis for multi-level resonance [6] Backtest Results - The backtest covers the period from January 1, 2015, to June 30, 2024, and includes all A-shares listed for more than 50 months [7] - Transaction costs are calculated at 3‰, and the strategy excludes ST stocks and stocks that hit the daily limit up [7] - The strategy's performance is relatively insensitive to parameter changes, with win rates ranging from 53.5% to 57.8% across different parameter settings [7]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [2] Core Views - The company achieved revenue of 7.175 billion yuan in H1 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 6.86%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 691 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 3.21% [2] - The company is expected to maintain steady growth in revenue, driven by its leading position in the yeast industry and rapid expansion in overseas markets. The report anticipates improvements in profitability as raw material costs stabilize [2][4] Financial Forecasts and Valuation - Revenue (in million yuan): - 2022A: 12,843 - 2023A: 13,581 - 2024E: 14,983 - 2025E: 16,658 - 2026E: 18,461 - Year-on-year growth rates: - 2022: 20% - 2023: 6% - 2024E: 10% - 2025E: 11% - 2026E: 11% [2] - Net Profit (in million yuan): - 2022A: 1,321 - 2023A: 1,270 - 2024E: 1,366 - 2025E: 1,564 - 2026E: 1,793 - Year-on-year growth rates: - 2022: 1% - 2023: -4% - 2024E: 8% - 2025E: 15% - 2026E: 15% [2] - Earnings per Share (in yuan): - 2022A: 1.52 - 2023A: 1.46 - 2024E: 1.57 - 2025E: 1.80 - 2026E: 2.06 [2] - Price-to-Earnings (P/E) Ratio: - 2022A: 19.5 - 2023A: 20.3 - 2024E: 18.8 - 2025E: 16.4 - 2026E: 14.3 [2] - Price-to-Book (P/B) Ratio: - 2022A: 2.8 - 2023A: 2.6 - 2024E: 2.3 - 2025E: 2.1 - 2026E: 1.9 [2] Key Investment Points - The company's main business of yeast is accelerating, with domestic growth rebounding. The revenue from yeast and deep-processed products in Q2 2024 reached 670 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 12.24% [2] - The company is implementing a "one factory, one strategy" approach to enhance product application and maintain stable sales growth across its business units [2] - The report highlights that the company is focusing on maintaining its market share while expanding its overseas business, which is expected to contribute to steady revenue growth [2][4]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, Beike-W (2423.HK), with a market price of HKD 34.35 [1]. Core Insights - Beike is the largest real estate transaction and service platform in China, leveraging its ACN network infrastructure to efficiently provide various real estate services [4][9]. - The residential market is expanding, with the market size growing from CNY 25.4 trillion in 2016 to CNY 39.6 trillion in 2021, and projected to reach CNY 55.7 trillion by 2026 [25]. - The company is expected to benefit from the increasing penetration of real estate brokerage services, which rose from 43.2% in 2016 to 49.8% in 2021, and is forecasted to reach 61.6% by 2026 [4][28]. Financial Performance - In 2023, the total transaction volume reached CNY 31,429 billion, a year-on-year increase of 20.4%, with operating revenue of CNY 777.8 billion, up 28.2% [5][31]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company was CNY 51.2 billion, reflecting a significant year-on-year growth of 349.2% [5]. - The company’s gross margin improved to 27.9%, an increase of 5.2 percentage points from the previous year [5]. Business Segments - The company’s core businesses include existing home transactions, new home transactions, home decoration, and emerging businesses, with significant growth in home decoration and rental management [4][31]. - The revenue from existing home transactions grew by 15.9% in 2023, while new home transactions saw a 6.7% increase [31]. - Home decoration and emerging businesses contributed significantly to revenue growth, with their shares rising to 14.0% and 10.8% of total revenue, respectively [5][31]. Market Outlook - The report anticipates that the company’s net profit will reach CNY 78.1 billion, CNY 99.0 billion, and CNY 112.8 billion for the years 2024 to 2026, respectively [5]. - The current price corresponds to a P/E ratio of 14.8x for 2024, 11.7x for 2025, and 10.2x for 2026, indicating a favorable valuation [5].

福耀玻璃(600660.SH)/汽车 证券研究报告/公司点评 2024 年 8 月 7 日 [Table_Industry] [Table_Title] 评级：买入（维持） 市场价格：42.87 元 分析师：何俊艺 执业证书编号：S0740523020004 分析师：刘欣畅 执业证书编号：S0740522120003 Email：liuxc03@zts.com.cn [Table_Profit] 基本状况 | --- | --- | |------------------|---------| | 总股本(百万股) | 2,610 | | 流通股本(百万股) | 2,003 | | 市价(元) | 42.87 | | 市值(百万元) | 111,880 | | 流通市值(百万元) | 85,869 | [Table_QuotePic] 股价与行业-市场走势对比 -30% -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 福耀玻璃 沪深300 2023-082023-092023-102023-112023-122024-012024-022024-032024-042024-052024-06 ...

1 中 泰 证 券 研 究 所 专 业 ｜ 领 先 ｜ 深 度 ｜ 诚 信 ｜ 证 券 研 究 报 告 ｜ 天然橡胶专题报告二 十问胶市 2 0 2 4 . 0 8 . 0 7 分析师：姚雪梅 执业证书编号：S0740522080005 分析师：王佳博 执业证书编号：S0740523010002 分析师：严瑾 执业证书编号： S0740523010001 2 摘要 Q1:泰国市场近况如何？ 答：胶水价格季节性 回落，加工厂利润恢 复;人工工资延续上涨。 Q7:海南橡胶新旧周 期差异？ 答：自产胶产能20万 吨，加工+贸易贡献 利润弹性。 报道媒体/组织 报道时间 主要内容摘要 woodcentral 2024年7月9日 出于"安全考虑"中国宣布反对欧洲"零毁林EUDR"政策，拒绝向欧盟申 报木材及木制品的具体位置数据。 woodcentral 美国商务部、农业部部长和贸易代表表达EUDR对美国木材、纸张和 纸浆的生产商构成严峻挑战 民主党、共和党、无党派人士联合书信贸易代表对地理位置地图表达 担忧 Argus 2024年6月21日 美国白宫敦促欧盟推迟EUDR实行 欧洲轮胎和橡胶制造商协会 2024年5月22 ...

证券研究报告 AI拉动算力大周期，数通PCB有望持续高增 分析师：王芳S0740521120002，杨旭S0740521120001，刘博文S0740524030001 2024年8月7日 1 目 录 一、AI拉动算力大周期 二、通用服务器升级+AI服务器量增带动PCB量价齐升 三、交换机、光模块迎来升级，未来空间广阔 四、投资建议 五、风险提示 2 AI拉动算力大周期 ◼ 算力爆发带动数通领域高速增长。随着ChatGPT出世，各AI领域大模型层数不穷，AI迭代持续加速，竞争如火如荼；后续 随着自动驾驶、AIOT等应用驱动，将驱动AI持续发展，而AI又将驱动数据运算需求加速增长。 ◼ 数据中心资本开始持续增长。为了顺应AI发展大潮流，全球各厂商数据中心计算与存储支出持续高涨，根据IDC数据，预 计2024年全部云基础设施支出将达1383亿美元，同比增长26.1%，全部数据中心计算与存储支出达2031亿美元，同比增 长19.9%。AI相关基建持续高景气，AI基建除了AI训练服务器外，还包括为了组网而搭配的其他设备，如交换机等。预计 高速通信领域将持续处于高景气状态，而PCB作为高速通信领域基础硬件，将随着相关产 ...

食品饮料 证券研究报告/专题研究报告 2024 年 8 月 5 日 [Table_Invest] 评级：增持（维持） [Table_ 分析师：何长天 Authors ] 执业证书编号：S0740522030001 Email：hect@zts.com.cn [Table_Industry] 消费税后移提升行业集中度，渠道管控能力需加强 -白酒消费税研究专题 [Table_Finance] 重点公司基本状况 简称 股价 (元) EPS PEPEG 评级 2023 2024E 2025E 2026E 2023 2024E 2025E 2026E 贵州茅台 1410.01 59.49 69.48 79.08 88.37 23.91 20.47 17.98 16.09 1.45 买入 今世缘 42.98 2.50 3.11 3.88 4.65 19.82 15.95 12.78 10.65 0.66 买入 山西汾酒 183.42 8.56 10.68 13.01 15.59 21.30 17.07 14.02 11.70 0.77 买入 古井贡酒 181.06 8.68 10.86 13.61 16.46 31.27 ...

Trade Data Overview - In July 2024, China's exports reached $300.56 billion, while imports totaled $215.91 billion, resulting in a trade surplus of $84.65 billion[1] - Year-on-year export growth was 7.0%, down 1.6 percentage points from the previous month, while import growth was 7.2%, rebounding by 9.5 percentage points[1] Export Performance - Exports to the US and EU improved, with year-on-year growth of 8.1% and 8.0%, respectively, increasing by 1.5 and 3.9 percentage points from the previous month[2] - Exports to ASEAN countries declined, with a growth rate of 12.2%, down 2.9 percentage points[2] - The export growth to emerging markets such as Latin America, Russia, and Africa showed a decline, with rates of 13.8%, -2.8%, and -7.9%, respectively[2] Import Dynamics - July saw a significant recovery in semiconductor imports, contributing to a 7.2% year-on-year growth, up 9.5 percentage points from June[3] - Key resource imports like copper, iron ore, crude oil, and natural gas increased by 26.9%, 10.8%, 7.9%, and 5.8%, respectively[3] - The overall import growth for July was driven by electronic goods and resource products, contributing 2.6 and 3.8 percentage points to the total import growth[3] Market Outlook - The decline in export growth raises questions about whether it is a trend reversal or a temporary fluctuation, with July's export level still considered strong at 7.0%[4] - Comparatively, exports from Vietnam and South Korea showed improvement, suggesting that a significant downturn in China's exports may not be imminent[4] - External factors such as the US economic situation and upcoming elections are expected to have limited negative impact on trade dynamics[4] Risk Considerations - Potential risks include unexpected overseas economic recovery, misinterpretation of policies, and delays in data updates[6]

浦发银行(600000.SH)/银行 证券研究报告/公司点评 2024 年 08 月 07 日 [Table_Industry] [Table_Title] 评级：增持(维持) 市场价格：8.31 分析师 戴志锋 执业证书编号：S0740517030004 Email： daizf@zts.com.cn 分析师 邓美君 执业证书编号：S0740519050002 Email： dengmj@zts.com.cn 研究助理 乔丹 Email： qiaodan@zts.com.cn [Table_Profit] 基本状况 | --- | --- | |------------------|---------| | 总股本(百万股) | 29,352 | | 流通股本(百万股) | 29,352 | | 市价(元) | 8.31 | | 市值(百万元) | 243,917 | | 流通市值(百万元) | 243,917 | [Table_QuotePic] 股价与行业-市场走势对比 公司持有该股票比例 相关报告 根据年报 详解浦发银行 1H24 业绩快报：信贷投放与业绩增速双提升 [Table_Finance] 公 ...

· [Table_Title] 评级：买入（首次） 市场价格：23.89 元 [Table_Finance] 公司盈利预测及估值 指标 2022A 2023A 2024E 2025E 2026E 营业收入（百万元） 395.72 435.02 563.39 732.99 968.79 增长率 yoy% 2.38% 9.93% 29.51% 30.10% 32.17% 净利润（百万元） 64.48 70.34 102.14 138.62 177.53 增长率 yoy% 5.28% 9.08% 45.21% 35.72% 28.07% 每股收益（元） 0.58 0.63 0.91 1.24 1.59 每股现金流量 0.85 0.76 1.00 0.44 0.43 净资产收益率 7.80% 7.99% 10.64% 12.62% 13.92% P/E 41.49 38.04 26.20 19.30 15.07 PEG 7.86 4.19 0.58 0.54 0.54 P/B 3.24 3.04 2.79 2.44 2.10 备注：截止 2024 年 8 月 7 日 分析师：祝嘉琦 执业证书编号：S074051904 ...