改革阵痛期，期待成效兑现 [评级Table_Title] ：买入（维持） 市场价格：19.80 80分析师： 熊欣慰 执业证书编号：S0740519080002 电话：021-20315733 Email：xiongxw@ zts.com.cn 分析师：范劲松 执业证书编号：S0740517030001 Email：fanjs@zts.com.cn 分析师：晏诗雨 执业证书编号：S0740523070003 Email：yansy@zts.com.cn [Table_Profit] 基本状况 | --- | --- | |------------------|--------| | 总股本(百万股) | 783 | | 流通股本(百万股) | 771 | | 市价(元) | 19.80 | | 市值(百万元) | 15,508 | | 流通市值(百万元) | 15,266 | [Table_QuotePic] 股价与行业-市场走势对比 公司持有该股票比例 相关报告 1 中炬高新（600872.SH）_点评报告： 业绩超预期，改革红利兑现 2 中炬高新（600872.SH）_点评报告： 三年战略规划落地，再造一 ...

[Table_Title] 评级：增持（维持） [Table_Finance 公司盈利预测及估值 1] 指标 2022A 2023A 2024E 2025E 2026E 营业收入（百万元） 798 1,010 1,328 1,723 2,186 增长率 yoy% 37.8% 26.6% 31.5% 29.7% 26.9% 净利润（百万元） 186 201 60 152 327 增长率 yoy% 33.2% 8.2% -70.3% 156.0% 114.3% 每股收益（元） 0.34 0.37 0.11 0.28 0.60 每股经营现金流（元） 0.82 0.46 0.13 0.33 0.68 净资产收益率 4.0% 4.2% 1.3% 3.2% 6.5% P/E 225 208 700 273 128 P/B 9 9 9 9 8 P/S 52 41 31 24 19 备注：股价选取 8 月 9 日收盘价 市场价格：76.73 分析师：闻学臣 执业证书编号：S0740519090007 [Table_Profit] 基本状况 总股本(百万股) 543 流通股本(百万股) 262 市价(元) 76.73 市值(百 ...

短期盈利承压，势能依旧向上 [Table_Title] 评级：买入（维持） [Table_Finance] 公司盈利预测及估值 指标 2022A 2023A 2024E 2025E 2026E 营业收入（百万元） 2,894 4,115 5,323 6,610 8,073 增长率 yoy% 27% 42% 29% 24% 22% 净利润（百万元） 301 506 666 851 1,070 增长率 yoy% 100% 68% 32% 28% 26% 每股收益（元） 2.34 2.58 3.40 4.34 5.46 每股现金流量 2.17 3.39 7.87 3.97 8.91 净资产收益率 26% 35% 32% 29% 27% P/E 35.1 20.9 15.9 12.4 9.9 P/B 9.3 7.3 5.1 3.7 2.7 备注：股价选取 2024 年 8 月 8 日收盘价 市场价格：38.6 元 [Table_Profit] 基本状况 总股本(百万股) 274 流通股本(百万股) 246 市价(元) 38.60 市值(百万元) 10,591 流通市值(百万元) 9,488 盐津铺子（002847.S ...

[Table_Industry] 证券研究报告/月度报告 2024 年 8 月 9 日 出口拐点尚未显现 ——2024 年 7 月进出口数据解读 [Table_Summary] 要点 [Table_Main] [Table_Title] 分析师：张德礼 执业证书编号：S0740523040001 ◼ 2024 年 7 月，中国以美元计价的出口当月同比为 7.0%，低于市场预期的 9. 5%，较前值 8.6%亦有回落；进口当月同比 7.2%，较前值-2.3%大幅回升；贸 易顺差为 846.47 亿美元，较前值 990.47 亿美元收窄，主因进口增速大幅提 高。环比来看，7 月我国以美元计价出口环比为-2.3%，环比表现季节性偏 弱，2022、2023 年对应的 7 月环比分别为 1.25%、-0.92%。 ◼ 7 月出口景气度有所回落，主要受海外经济体需求趋弱、欧美部分关税落地 等、红海危机对供应链形成扰动等影响。7 月全球制造业 PMI 为 49.7，是近 7 个月来首次跌破荣枯线，欧美 7 月落地的部分关税政策或对出口形成一定 扰动，全球供应链压力指数(GSCPI)在 7 月已连续第三个月回升。 ◼ 分产品 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the company [2][6]. Core Views - The company's performance meets expectations, and the logic behind high dividends continues to be validated [2]. - The company achieved a revenue of 389 million yuan in the first half of the year, representing a year-on-year increase of 35.16% [2]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company for the first half of the year was 136 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 29.19% [2]. - The gross profit margin remains stable, and the company has a strong order reserve [2]. Financial Summary - Revenue Forecast (in million yuan): - 2022: 451 - 2023: 672 - 2024E: 821 - 2025E: 942 - 2026E: 1,079 [2] - Net Profit Forecast (in million yuan): - 2022: 111 - 2023: 219 - 2024E: 279 - 2025E: 340 - 2026E: 399 [2] - Earnings Per Share (in yuan): - 2024E: 1.86 - 2025E: 2.36 - 2026E: 2.88 [2] - Cash Dividend Yield for the first half of the year was 2.9% [2]. Market Performance - The company's stock price is currently at 34.85 yuan, with a market capitalization of 4,115 million yuan [2]. - The report indicates that the company's stock price has fallen into a favorable range for investment, despite concerns about revenue growth deceleration [2].

1、 暑运高峰来临，经营保持高位 交运/航空机场 证券研究报告/行业周报 2024 年 08 月 10 日 | --- | --- | |------------------------------------|------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------| | 评级：增持（维持） | ≈[投资要点 Table_Summary] | | 分析师：杜冲 | n 板块涨跌幅：本周交运板块下跌 2.2%，表现劣于大盘。交运行业细分板块中仅快递指 | | 执业证书编号： S0740522040001 | 数(1.8%) 上涨；跌幅前三的分别为公交指数(-10.0%)、航运指数(-4.9%)、公路指数(- | | 电话： | 4.0%)。航空机场板块中涨幅前三的分别为吉祥航空(3.1%)、海航控股(2.8%)、中国 国 | | | 航(1.1%)；跌幅前三 ...

National Preparedness Strategy - The "911" event significantly impacted the U.S. economy and national security, leading to the establishment of the Department of Homeland Security and the issuance of Homeland Security Presidential Directives (HSPD) focusing on supply chain security and national preparedness[4] - The HSPD-8 directive emphasized the need for a national emergency preparedness framework, aiming to enhance the ability to prevent, defend against, mitigate, respond to, and recover from threats[4] Key Infrastructure Redundancy - The U.S. government strengthened the redundancy of critical infrastructure to reduce dependency on single nodes, particularly in sectors like transportation, energy, and telecommunications[5][6] - The National Infrastructure Protection Plan (NIPP) highlighted the importance of redundancy in infrastructure, with examples like the New York City subway system and Los Angeles water systems[6] Data Backup and Disaster Recovery - Post-"911," the U.S. government provided $5 billion in disaster loans and $7.4 billion in grants to support data recovery and cybersecurity improvements for businesses[7][8] - The data backup industry saw significant growth, with U.S. companies dominating the global market for dedicated backup appliances (PBBA), holding over 80% market share from 2012 to 2017[11] Medical Resource Stockpiling - The Strategic National Stockpile (SNS) was established in 2003, with funding increasing from $51 million to $400 million by 2005, to ensure rapid deployment of medical resources during emergencies[9][10] - The SNS played a crucial role in responding to major health crises, such as Hurricane Katrina, the H1N1 flu pandemic, and COVID-19, by providing vaccines, medical supplies, and personal protective equipment[14][16] Microgrid Development - The U.S. smart grid initiative led to the development of microgrids, with 692 microgrids installed by 2023, providing a total capacity of 4.4 GW, though still less than 0.3% of the total U.S. electricity supply[11]

核 心 CPI 为何回落？— —7 月通 胀数据点评 证券研究报告/固定收益点评 2024 年 8 月 9 日 [Table_Industry] [Table_Title] 分析师：肖雨 执业证书编号：S0740520110001 Email：xiaoyu@zts.com.cn 研究助理：张可迎 Email：zhangky04@zts.com.cn [Table_Report] 相关报告 投资要点 ◼ 事件：国家统计局公布，2024 年 7 月 CPI 同比上涨 0.5%，环比上涨 0.5%；PPI 同比 下降 0.8%，环比下降 0.2%。我们点评如下： ◼ 7 月 CPI 同比 0.5%（前值 0.2%），高于市场预期值 0.3%。八大项中，除"食品烟酒" 分项同比增速高于前值外，其余分项增速均出现持平或回落。 食品烟酒是 7月份 CPI 回升的主要拉动项。7月份食品烟酒 CPI 同比上涨 0.2%，由负 转正。食品 CPI 同比增速为 0%（前值-2.1%），环比增速 1.2%（前值-0.6%），主要受 到猪肉价格涨幅扩大、鲜菜价格由负转正的影响： 1）受猪肉压栏、供给下降影响，7 月份猪肉价格延续上行 ...

中 泰 证 券 研 究 所 专 业 ｜ 领 先 ｜ 深 度 ｜ 诚 信 ｜ 证 券 研 究 报 告 ｜ 核工装备深度汇报（一） 核电连续两年核准10台机组，发展春风已至 2024 . 8 . 8 分析师： 陈鼎如 执业证书编号：S0740521080001 Email：chendr01@zts.com.cn 分析师： 殷通 执业证书编号：S0740524040001 Email：yintong@zts.com.cn 核心观点 2 ◆ 产业拐点：华龙一号进入规模化建造，已具备量产及国产化基础 1）能源转型："3060"双碳目标促使我国进行能源转型；2）低碳能源：核电全生命周期碳排放量少、成本低、利用小 时数高；3）增长空间：预计2030年、2035年我国核电装机将分别达到120GW、150GW左右，而截至2024月3月31日，我国 （大陆地区）核电装机容量58.22GW ，尚有增长空间；4）国产化率提升：中国核电自主化进程持续加速，国产化率持续 提升，至福清三期已高达88%，国内产业链公司有望充分受益于核电自主化进程。 ➢ 现状：截止2024年7月26日：核准待开工核电机组8台；选址通过待核准机组13台（含高温 ...

Group 1: Trading Strategies and Market Signals - The report introduces a trading strategy based on the Fibonacci ratio, suggesting to buy stocks that have previously experienced a monthly uptrend when they drop to 0.618 and 0.8 levels, although further refinement of buy point selection is necessary [2] - The securities company index completed a monthly 9-turn sequence signal in July 2024, indicating potential upward market movement, supported by multiple indices showing time resonance [2] - The relative price of the securities company index compared to the bank index reached a new low, indicating extreme undervaluation of the securities sector [2] Group 2: Alcohol Industry Insights - The shift of consumption tax collection to the retail end may compress profits for low-end liquor companies while potentially benefiting high-end brands like Moutai, which can pass tax burdens to consumers [3] - The consumption tax reform is expected to increase industry concentration, as larger enterprises with strong pricing power can better absorb tax impacts compared to smaller firms [3] - The report highlights the need for improved channel management in the liquor industry, especially if tax collection shifts to the retail stage, drawing comparisons to the tobacco industry's regulatory framework [3] Group 3: Natural Rubber Market Analysis - The report outlines ten key questions regarding the natural rubber market, including seasonal price fluctuations and the impact of labor costs on processing profits in Thailand [4] - It discusses the expected upward movement in natural rubber prices, driven by supply-demand dynamics and production capacity changes in Hainan [4] - The report emphasizes the importance of selecting companies with capacity expansion and currently low valuations in the natural rubber downstream sector [4] Group 4: PCB Industry Growth - The report indicates that the AI boom is driving significant growth in the data communication PCB sector, with expected spending on cloud infrastructure reaching $138.3 billion in 2024, a 26.1% increase year-on-year [5] - The demand for PCBs is anticipated to rise due to the upgrade of server platforms and the increasing volume of AI servers, with AI server shipments projected to grow by 38.4% in 2023 [5] - The report highlights the expected growth in the switch and optical module markets, driven by the transition to higher-speed standards like 800G, which will further elevate PCB value [5]