1 楼市仍处调整阶段 有待政策持续呵护 ——2024 年 7 月房地产行业运行情况报告 分析师 唐晓琳 闫骏 核心观点： 销售端：1-7 月全国商品房销售面积、销售额同比降幅较前值略有收窄，但单月表现不佳，同比降 幅再度扩大。价格方面，70 城二手住宅价格和新房住宅价格环比保持下跌趋势，跌幅较前值无明 显变化。整体来看，当前楼市仍处于调整阶段。 投资端：7 月投资端下行压力不减，房地产开发投资完成额累计降幅有所扩大。开工方面，新开工、 施工和竣工环比降幅略有收窄，但整体仍处下降区间，有待进一步修复；土地市场方面，7 月成交 土地面积季节性回落，但同比降幅较上月有所收窄，二线城市仍是土地市场成交主力，一线城市 成交情况冷热不均，北京、上海热门地块竞争激烈，三线城市土地楼面均价环比再度下降。 高频数据显示，8 月 1-19 日 30 大中城市日均商品房成交套数为 2016 套，同比下降 18.2%，楼市 下行压力仍然较大。8 月 15 日，国家统计局新闻发言人刘爱华在国新办新闻发布会上表示，7 月 份我国部分房地产相关指标降幅继续收窄，但同时也要看到，多数房地产指标仍处于下降之中， 房地产市场仍处于调整中。下阶段 ...

1 东方金诚宏观研究 | --- | --- | |-----------------------------------|----------------------------| | | | | 信贷延续偏弱与债券融资较强互现，7 | 月金融总量指标走势分化 | | | ——2024 年 7 月金融数据点评 | | | 王青 李晓峰 冯琳 | 事件：2024 年 8 月 13 日，央行公布的数据显示，2024 年 7 月新增人民币贷款 2600 亿，同比少增 859 亿；7 月新增社会融资规模为 7708 亿，同比多增 2342 亿。7 月末，广义货币(M2)同比增长 6.3%，增速比 上月末高 0.1 个百分点；狭义货币(M1)同比下降 6.6%，降幅较上月末扩大 1.6 个百分点。 基本观点： 整体上看，受信贷需求偏低、金融"挤水分"效应影响，7 月信贷数据延续低位，而政府和企业债券 融资偏强，带动新增社融同比多增，存量社融增速加快，当月金融总量数据走势分化。在监管层"淡化对 数量目标的关注"的政策取向下，当前的重点是通过结构性货币政策等政策工具强化对实体经济的精准滴 灌，同时着力引导社会融资成本稳中 ...

1 东方金诚宏观研究 | --- | --- | |----------------------------------------------------|----------------------------| | | | | 7 月宏观数据走势分化，经济继续呈现非均衡复苏态势 | | | | ——2024 年 7 月宏观数据点评 | | 首席宏观分析师 王青 | 研究发展部总监 冯琳 | 事件：据国家统计局 8 月 15 日公布的数据，7 月规模以上工业增加值同比实际增长 5.1%，6 月为 5.3%；7 月社会消费品零售总额同比增长 2.7%，6 月为 2.0%；1-7 月全国固定资产投资累计同比增长 3.6%，前值为 3.9%。 基本观点： 整体上看，7 月宏观数据呈现商品消费增速低位回升，投资、工业生产增速略有下行的分化格局，宏 观经济中的"供强需弱"特征依然较为明显。当月经济增长动能延续了二季度以来的放缓态势，除了极 端天气影响外，背后主要是在房地产行业持续调整背景下，以居民消费、民间投资为代表的经济内生增 长动能偏弱。这与 7 月官方制造业 PMI 指数降至 49.4%，连续三个月处在收缩区 ...

Economic Overview - In the first half of 2024, GDP growth reached 5.0%, aligning with the government's target of around 5.0%[1] - High-tech manufacturing value added increased by 8.7% year-on-year, significantly outpacing the overall industrial production growth rate of 6.0%[1] - However, Q2 GDP growth slowed to 4.7%, indicating weakened economic momentum primarily due to declining consumer spending and private investment[1] Challenges Identified - Insufficient domestic demand is a major drag on macroeconomic performance, exacerbated by ongoing adjustments in the real estate sector[1] - The real estate industry continues to face significant challenges, with falling property prices impacting consumer confidence and private investment[1] - Increased external uncertainties, including geopolitical risks and a challenging foreign trade environment, are anticipated to persist in the second half of the year[1] Monetary Policy Adjustments - The report emphasizes a flexible and effective monetary policy, with a focus on stabilizing growth and preventing excessive fluctuations in expectations[2] - The central bank plans to lower the reserve requirement ratio by 0.5 percentage points in Q3 and may reduce the main policy interest rate by 0.1-0.2 percentage points in Q4[2] - Structural monetary policy tools will be utilized to support key sectors and address weaknesses in the economy[2] Framework Transformation - The central bank is shifting from quantity-based control (focusing on credit and money supply) to price-based control (emphasizing interest rate adjustments) due to the large scale of existing financial metrics[3] - The adjustment of the 7-day reverse repurchase operation to a fixed rate aims to enhance its role as a primary policy rate and stabilize market expectations[4] Interest Rate Mechanism - The loan market quotation rate (LPR) will now be anchored to the 7-day reverse repurchase rate, improving the transmission of interest rates from short to long-term[5] - The central bank is expanding its monetary policy toolbox to include secondary market government bond transactions, allowing for more effective interest rate guidance[5]

Group 1: CPI Analysis - In July 2024, the CPI increased by 0.5% year-on-year, up from 0.2% in June, exceeding market expectations by 0.3 percentage points[1][2] - The rise in CPI was primarily driven by a significant increase in vegetable prices, which surged by 9.3% month-on-month, contributing approximately 0.23 percentage points to the CPI increase[4] - Core CPI continued to decline, indicating persistent low inflation, with the core CPI year-on-year growth rate falling to 0.4%[4] Group 2: PPI Analysis - The PPI remained unchanged at -0.8% year-on-year in July, ending a three-month trend of narrowing declines[1][6] - The decline in PPI was attributed to falling prices in domestic commodities such as cement, coal, and steel, as well as a decrease in overseas prices for copper and aluminum[6][7] - The manufacturing sector showed signs of weakness, with the manufacturing PMI's output price index dropping to 46.3%, indicating contraction[6][8] Group 3: Consumer Confidence and Future Outlook - Consumer confidence remains low, with the consumer confidence index at 86.2 in June, below the neutral level of 100[5] - The outlook for CPI in August is projected to be around 0.4%, with expectations that CPI will remain below 1.0% for the second half of the year[6] - The government has room to implement further macroeconomic policies to stimulate consumption, including the issuance of consumption vouchers and subsidies[6]

Group 1: Foreign Exchange Reserves - As of the end of July 2024, China's foreign exchange reserves stood at $32,563.72 billion, an increase of $340.14 billion from the end of June[1] - The increase of 1.06% in July represents the largest rise since the beginning of the year, driven by a 1.69% decline in the US dollar index and rising global financial asset prices[1] - The depreciation of the US dollar is estimated to have contributed approximately $20 billion to the increase in foreign exchange reserves[1] - Despite market volatility in August due to unexpected interest rate hikes by the Bank of Japan, foreign reserves are expected to remain above $32,000 billion[1] Group 2: Economic Outlook and Gold Reserves - China's foreign exchange reserves are currently considered adequately sufficient at around $3 trillion, with expectations of stability in the second half of the year[1] - The recent trade surplus and inflow of foreign capital into domestic bonds indicate a positive external economic environment[1] - The central government's commitment to achieving economic and social development goals suggests a controlled depreciation pressure on the RMB against the USD[1] - As of the end of July, China's gold reserves remained unchanged at 7.28 million ounces for three consecutive months, indicating a pause in the central bank's accumulation of gold[2] - The central bank's strategy to adjust gold purchases is aimed at cost control amid historically high gold prices, while still planning to optimize international reserve structures[2]

1 | --- | --- | |------------------------------------------------------|---------------------------------------------| | | | | 7 月出口增速略有回落、进口增速转正，外需转弱信号出现 | 东方金诚宏观研究 ——2024 年 7 月贸易数据解读 | | | 研究发展部总监 冯琳 | 根据海关部署公布的数据，以美元计价，2024 年 7 月出口额同比增长 7.0%，6 月同比增长 8.6%；7 月进口额同比增长 7.2%，6 月同比下降 2.3%。 一、主要受对东盟、日本出口增速下滑影响，7 月我国整体出口额同比增速略有下行，但继续保持 较快增长水平。值得注意的是，7 月欧盟对华加征新能源汽车进口关税落地，对我国当月汽车出口影响 不大。不过，7 月摩根大通全球制造业 PMI 指数降至 49.7%，结束了此前连续 6 月的扩张状态，预示后 期我国出口增速可能会趋势性回落。 以人民币计价，7 月进、出口额同比增速分别为 6.6%和 6.5%，与同期以美元计价的增速差主要源于 过去一年中人民币兑 ...

作者 东方金诚 研究发展部 分析师 瞿瑞 分析师 白雪 时间 关注东方金诚公众号 获取更多研究报告 黄金周报（2024.7.29-2024.8.2） 核心观点 2024 年 8 月 6 日 美联储释放降息信号、非农触发衰退交易，金价大幅上涨 ⚫ 上周，受美联储议息会议释放鸽派降息信号、美国经济数据 走弱，以及美国 7 月非农数据大幅降温影响，市场降息预期大 幅升温，提振黄金价格再创新高。上周五（8 月 2 日），沪金 主力期货价格较前一周五（7 月 26 日）上涨 2.99%至 574.04 元/克，COMEX 黄金主力期货价格较前一周五大幅上涨 4.21%至 2485.10 美元/盎司；黄金 T+D 现货价格上涨 2.95%至 571.18 元/克，伦敦金现货价格上涨 2.31%至 2442.08 美元/盎司。具 体来看，上周，美联储 7 月议息会议政策目标有所转变，就业 权重上升，释放最快 9 月降息信号；同时，上周公布的美国 7 月制造业 PMI 指数创八个月最大萎缩，非农数据大幅下跌且失 业率走高至 4.3%，显示劳动力市场明显降温，触发经济衰退 预期，引发市场预期年内降息幅度将大幅提升；此外，上周巴 ...

Good evening, and thank you for standing by for New Oriental's full year 2024 fourth quarter results earnings conference call. At this time, all participants are in listen-only mode. After the management's prepared remarks, there will be a question and answer session. Today's conference is being recorded. If you have any objections, you may disconnect at this time. I would now like to turn the meeting over to your host for today's conference, Ms. Sissy Tsao. Please go ahead. Thank you. Hello, everyone, and ...

1 东方金诚宏观研究 | --- | --- | |-------|-------------------------------------| | | | | | ——美联储 7 月货币政策会议点评与展望 | | | 研究发展部高级副总监 白雪 | 事件：美东时间 7 月 31 日周三，美联储货币政策委员会会后宣布，联邦基金利率的目标区间仍 保持在 5.25%-5.50%不变，FOMC 投票委员连续第 17 次会议一致投票支持利率决策。美联储决议声明 改称通胀"有所"高企、降通胀取得"一些"进一步进展、就业增长"有所放缓"、失业率仍处低位 但"有所上升"；不再称"仍高度关注通胀风险"，改称关注就业和通胀双重使命面临的风险；重申在 对降通胀更有信心以前不适合降息、就业和通胀的风险继续更平衡。 会后鲍威尔表示，随着劳动力市场降温和通胀率下降，实现就业和通胀目标的风险继续趋于平 衡。他表示，9 月货币政策会议上降息可能是一个选项，如果通胀数据支持，美联储最快将在 9 月选 择降息。他透露，FOMC 的普遍观点是，目前正在接近适合降息的时间点，但还没有完全达到该时 点。 对此，东方金诚解读如下： 本次会议美联储政策 ...