Group 1: Foreign Exchange Reserves - As of the end of July 2024, China's foreign exchange reserves stood at $32,563.72 billion, an increase of $340.14 billion from the end of June[1] - The increase of 1.06% in July represents the largest rise since the beginning of the year, driven by a 1.69% decline in the US dollar index and rising global financial asset prices[1] - The depreciation of the US dollar is estimated to have contributed approximately $20 billion to the increase in foreign exchange reserves[1] - Despite market volatility in August due to unexpected interest rate hikes by the Bank of Japan, foreign reserves are expected to remain above $32,000 billion[1] Group 2: Economic Outlook and Gold Reserves - China's foreign exchange reserves are currently considered adequately sufficient at around $3 trillion, with expectations of stability in the second half of the year[1] - The recent trade surplus and inflow of foreign capital into domestic bonds indicate a positive external economic environment[1] - The central government's commitment to achieving economic and social development goals suggests a controlled depreciation pressure on the RMB against the USD[1] - As of the end of July, China's gold reserves remained unchanged at 7.28 million ounces for three consecutive months, indicating a pause in the central bank's accumulation of gold[2] - The central bank's strategy to adjust gold purchases is aimed at cost control amid historically high gold prices, while still planning to optimize international reserve structures[2]

1 | --- | --- | |------------------------------------------------------|---------------------------------------------| | | | | 7 月出口增速略有回落、进口增速转正，外需转弱信号出现 | 东方金诚宏观研究 ——2024 年 7 月贸易数据解读 | | | 研究发展部总监 冯琳 | 根据海关部署公布的数据，以美元计价，2024 年 7 月出口额同比增长 7.0%，6 月同比增长 8.6%；7 月进口额同比增长 7.2%，6 月同比下降 2.3%。 一、主要受对东盟、日本出口增速下滑影响，7 月我国整体出口额同比增速略有下行，但继续保持 较快增长水平。值得注意的是，7 月欧盟对华加征新能源汽车进口关税落地，对我国当月汽车出口影响 不大。不过，7 月摩根大通全球制造业 PMI 指数降至 49.7%，结束了此前连续 6 月的扩张状态，预示后 期我国出口增速可能会趋势性回落。 以人民币计价，7 月进、出口额同比增速分别为 6.6%和 6.5%，与同期以美元计价的增速差主要源于 过去一年中人民币兑 ...

作者 东方金诚 研究发展部 分析师 瞿瑞 分析师 白雪 时间 关注东方金诚公众号 获取更多研究报告 黄金周报（2024.7.29-2024.8.2） 核心观点 2024 年 8 月 6 日 美联储释放降息信号、非农触发衰退交易，金价大幅上涨 ⚫ 上周，受美联储议息会议释放鸽派降息信号、美国经济数据 走弱，以及美国 7 月非农数据大幅降温影响，市场降息预期大 幅升温，提振黄金价格再创新高。上周五（8 月 2 日），沪金 主力期货价格较前一周五（7 月 26 日）上涨 2.99%至 574.04 元/克，COMEX 黄金主力期货价格较前一周五大幅上涨 4.21%至 2485.10 美元/盎司；黄金 T+D 现货价格上涨 2.95%至 571.18 元/克，伦敦金现货价格上涨 2.31%至 2442.08 美元/盎司。具 体来看，上周，美联储 7 月议息会议政策目标有所转变，就业 权重上升，释放最快 9 月降息信号；同时，上周公布的美国 7 月制造业 PMI 指数创八个月最大萎缩，非农数据大幅下跌且失 业率走高至 4.3%，显示劳动力市场明显降温，触发经济衰退 预期，引发市场预期年内降息幅度将大幅提升；此外，上周巴 ...

Good evening, and thank you for standing by for New Oriental's full year 2024 fourth quarter results earnings conference call. At this time, all participants are in listen-only mode. After the management's prepared remarks, there will be a question and answer session. Today's conference is being recorded. If you have any objections, you may disconnect at this time. I would now like to turn the meeting over to your host for today's conference, Ms. Sissy Tsao. Please go ahead. Thank you. Hello, everyone, and ...

1 东方金诚宏观研究 | --- | --- | |-------|-------------------------------------| | | | | | ——美联储 7 月货币政策会议点评与展望 | | | 研究发展部高级副总监 白雪 | 事件：美东时间 7 月 31 日周三，美联储货币政策委员会会后宣布，联邦基金利率的目标区间仍 保持在 5.25%-5.50%不变，FOMC 投票委员连续第 17 次会议一致投票支持利率决策。美联储决议声明 改称通胀"有所"高企、降通胀取得"一些"进一步进展、就业增长"有所放缓"、失业率仍处低位 但"有所上升"；不再称"仍高度关注通胀风险"，改称关注就业和通胀双重使命面临的风险；重申在 对降通胀更有信心以前不适合降息、就业和通胀的风险继续更平衡。 会后鲍威尔表示，随着劳动力市场降温和通胀率下降，实现就业和通胀目标的风险继续趋于平 衡。他表示，9 月货币政策会议上降息可能是一个选项，如果通胀数据支持，美联储最快将在 9 月选 择降息。他透露，FOMC 的普遍观点是，目前正在接近适合降息的时间点，但还没有完全达到该时 点。 对此，东方金诚解读如下： 本次会议美联储政策 ...

Fiscal Policy - The government will significantly accelerate bond issuance in the second half of the year, with a peak expected in Q3, supporting infrastructure investment growth at around 8%[1] - A special long-term bond fund of 300 billion will be allocated for large-scale equipment upgrades and durable goods replacement, which is expected to have an immediate impact on investment and consumption[1] - There is a possibility of issuing an additional 1 trillion in long-term special bonds in H2 2023, along with special refinancing bonds to address local government hidden debt risks[1] Monetary Policy - Following the July interest rate cut, there is room for a reserve requirement ratio (RRR) cut in Q3 to support large-scale government bond issuance[1] - Banks may accelerate credit issuance in Q3, leveraging the central bank's interest rate cut to support the real economy[1] - A further reduction in policy interest rates is possible in Q4 to address low price levels and stabilize economic growth around 5.0%[1] Real Estate Policy - The policy to purchase existing residential properties for affordable housing will be advanced with greater intensity, focusing on resolving funding issues[2] - The financing coordination mechanism will enhance bank lending for real estate development, crucial for ensuring housing delivery and managing credit risks for developers[2] - There is an expectation for a continued downward adjustment of residential mortgage rates to improve market stability[2] Structural Reforms - Key structural reforms are anticipated to progress, particularly in improving the business environment for private enterprises[2] - The reform of the fiscal and tax system is urgent, with plans to shift consumption tax collection to local governments to enhance their incentive to promote consumption[2] - Efforts will be made to optimize land management systems to provide more development space for economically strong regions[2]

然后首先还是跟大家介绍一下就是昨天大家这个非常关注的新东方的这个24Q4以及25Q1的这么一个业绩的情况以及具体的一些业务拆分然后最后呢我会再简单对于公司的一个基本的框架还有他的一些研究的一些我们最近发现的一些编辑的变化进行一个解读我这边就主要是介绍一下我们的整个的最新的一个情况 其实大家已经看到了昨天的那个发布的24Q4以及24全年以及25Q1的业绩指引其实已经非常明确了简单介绍一下这个具体情况首先24全年的收入是43个亿美金同比增长44%毛利润是22.63同比增长42%毛利率是52.45然后同比就下降1%然后我们可以看到规模利润的话是Nongap的经侨规模利润是3.81亿美金同比增长37 然后margin对应是8.84然后一致预期之前其实是4.2亿美金然后Q4财年的对应的营收是11.37亿美金同比增长32这个其实符合BJ一致预期的毛利润是5.94亿美金同比增长27%毛利率52.28同比下降2%然后销售费用是2.08亿美金费用率18个点增加1%管理费用3.76亿美金同比增长37%费用率增加1% 然后none gap规模利润是0.37亿美元这个比一致预期的这个0.72其实是有一点下滑的margin是3.25然 ...

作者 东方金诚 研究发展部 分析师 瞿瑞 分析师 白雪 时间 2024 年 7 月 30 日 关注东方金诚公众号 获取更多研究报告 降息预期加强，金价"V"型反弹 黄金周报（2024.7.22-2024.7.28） 核心观点 ⚫ 受交易性回调以及降息预期加强等多空因素交织影响，上周 黄金价格呈"V"型走势，整体小幅下跌。上周五（7 月 26 日），沪金主力期货价格较前一周五（7 月 19 日）下跌 1.51% 至 557.38 元/克，COMEX 黄金主力期货价格较前一周五下降 0.71%至 2385.70 美元/盎司；黄金 T+D 现货价格下跌 1.13%至 554.79 元/克，伦敦金现货价格下降 0.57%至 2386.89 美元/盎 司。具体来看，受止盈需求压制，上半周金价持续回落；后半 周，美国 6 月 PCE 数据公布，显示通胀继续处于降温通道，叠 加近期美国经济数据表现整体相对偏弱，再度强化市场对 9 月 降息的预期，带动金价出现反弹。整体上看，上周国际金价先 跌后涨，整体小幅下跌。 本周（7 月 29 日当周）黄金价格或有一定上行空间。本周美 联储将举行 7 月议息会议，近期美国通胀数据持续改 ...

Revenue Insights - In June 2024, the national general public budget revenue decreased by 2.6% year-on-year, an improvement from May's decline of 3.2%[1] - The cumulative government fund revenue from January to June 2024 fell by 15.3%, compared to a 10.8% decline from January to May[1] - Tax revenue in June dropped by 8.5%, worsening from May's decline of 6.1%[4] Expenditure Trends - General public budget expenditure in June 2024 decreased by 3.0%, a significant drop from the 2.6% increase in May[1] - Cumulative expenditure from January to June 2024 grew by 2.0%, down from 3.4% in the previous five months[6] - By the end of June, public budget expenditure completed 47.8% of the annual budget, below the five-year average of 49.0%[6] Government Fund Dynamics - In June, government fund income fell by 32.4%, a decline that expanded by 10.2 percentage points from the previous month[7] - Land transfer revenue in June decreased by 35.3%, worsening from May's decline of 27.4%[7] - Cumulative government fund expenditure from January to June 2024 decreased by 17.5%, exceeding the revenue decline[7] Future Fiscal Policy Outlook - The government plans to accelerate the issuance of special bonds and utilize ultra-long-term special treasury bonds in the second half of 2024[9] - The political bureau meeting emphasized the need for proactive fiscal policies to support economic growth, aiming for a GDP growth target of 5%[9]

2024 年 7 月 30 日中央政治局会议公报要点解读 不过，二季度 GDP 同比增速降至 4.7%，显示经济增长动能有所减弱，背后主要是以居 民消费和民间投资增速下行为代表，国内有效需求不足，对宏观经济运行的拖累效应加大。 这也是"经济运行出现分化"的具体体现。背后是二季度房地产行业继续处于调整阶段，房 价下行带来资产缩水效应，对居民消费信心和民间投资影响较大，房地产投资较大幅度下滑 也在一定程度抵消了制造业投资的快速增长，稳投资压力较大。而"重点领域风险隐患仍然 较多"，除了指向房地产行业调整外，还包括地方化债需要进一步推进，中小金融机构风险 有待进一步化解等。作为传统的主要经济增长动力，当前房地产行业和城投平台都处于调整 阶段，而新动能培育、新质生产力发展还需要一个过程，导致"新旧动能转换存在阵痛"， 经济总体上面临一定下行压力。 值得注意的是，7 月 19 日国常会决定，统筹安排超长期特别国债资金，进一步推动大 规模设备更新和消费品以旧换新。与此前超长期特别国债资金主要用于支持扩投资不同，此 次安排 1500 亿元超长期特别国债资金支持耐用消费品以旧换新。这一方面显示超长期特别 国债资金使用范围扩展 ...