Investment Rating - The report indicates a low-level operation of the domestic real estate market in the first half of 2024, with a focus on inventory reduction as a key priority for the industry [2][3] Core Viewpoints - The report emphasizes that despite the continuous release of loose policies, the sales decline has narrowed, but inventory reduction pressure remains significant, and the recovery of sales is crucial for the survival of most real estate companies [2][4] - The report highlights that the central and local governments have adopted a "de-inventory" policy as a guiding principle, with expectations for continued implementation in the second half of 2024 [3][4] Policy Summary - The report outlines a series of policies aimed at stabilizing the real estate market, including lowering down payment ratios and interest rates for housing loans, as well as various incentives for home purchases [4][5][6] - It notes that the "924 package policy" introduced in September 2024 includes measures to lower existing mortgage rates and unify down payment ratios for first and second homes [7][8] Financing Environment - The report discusses the ongoing challenges in the financing environment for real estate companies, with a focus on the need for improved sales performance to enhance liquidity [11][19] - It mentions that the overall financing environment remains loose, but the benefits of favorable policies are limited to a small group of companies, particularly those with weaker qualifications [11][19] Supply and Demand Dynamics - The report indicates that the real estate sales market continues to decline, with a significant drop in sales area and value in the first half of 2024, although the rate of decline has slowed due to policy support [31][37] - It highlights that the inventory turnover period has increased, indicating ongoing challenges in inventory reduction [31][38] Market Performance - The report states that the total sales area of commercial housing in the first half of 2024 was 479 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 19.00%, while the sales value was 4.71 trillion yuan, down 25.00% [37] - It also notes that the average price of new residential properties in major cities continues to decline, reflecting a persistent downward trend in housing prices [38][40]

Investment Rating - The report indicates a structural oversupply in the lithium battery materials industry, particularly in the ternary precursor sector, leading to a cautious investment outlook for the period from 2021 to 2024 [2][32]. Core Insights - The lithium battery materials industry has experienced rapid growth driven by demand from electric vehicles and energy storage, transitioning through phases of supply shortage, tight balance, and now structural oversupply [3][5]. - The report highlights that companies with diversified product structures, high global presence, and strong financial capabilities are likely to navigate the oversupply cycle successfully [2][32]. - The report emphasizes the increasing concentration in various segments of the lithium battery industry, suggesting that leading companies will gain a competitive edge [32]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - From 2021 to 2023, the lithium battery and materials market grew rapidly due to the development of the electric vehicle and energy storage markets, with significant increases in production capacity [3][5]. - The industry has faced a transition from supply shortages to structural oversupply, particularly noted in 2024, where profitability is under pressure due to increased competition [3][12]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - The supply-demand relationship has shifted significantly, with 2021 seeing a supply shortage, 2022 a tight balance, and 2023 a structural oversupply [13][32]. - The report notes that the average price of cathode materials has dropped significantly in 2023, with a reported decline in industry revenue [9][12]. Policy and Regulatory Environment - Domestic policies in China are aimed at curbing excessive capacity expansion, while international policies from the US and EU are imposing restrictions on Chinese lithium battery exports [18][20]. - The report outlines specific regulations such as the US Inflation Reduction Act and the EU Battery Regulation, which could impact the competitiveness of Chinese lithium battery products in global markets [19][20]. Resource Distribution - The report discusses China's reliance on imported lithium minerals and the strategic moves by companies to secure overseas resources to mitigate risks associated with supply chain disruptions [22][23]. - The increasing demand for nickel in the ternary precursor industry is highlighted, with projections indicating a significant rise in nickel requirements by 2030 [23][24]. Financing Environment - The report indicates that while financing difficulties have increased due to macroeconomic conditions, the demand for financing among lithium battery companies remains high [27][32]. - The analysis of the A-share market shows a decline in IPO numbers and valuations for lithium battery companies, reflecting a tightening financing environment [29][30].

Investment Rating - The report indicates a cautious outlook for the construction industry, with a focus on improving liquidity pressures for construction companies in the future [1]. Core Insights - The construction industry experienced a slowdown in output growth in the first half of 2024, with new contract amounts declining year-on-year, while the growth rate of existing contracts outpaced new contracts [4][28]. - The government continues to implement policies aimed at stabilizing the real estate market, which is expected to provide support for infrastructure investment and the construction industry [1][28]. - The quality of business receivables has declined, leading to increased liquidity pressures for construction companies, particularly local state-owned enterprises [1][6][28]. - The issuance of short-term bonds by construction companies has decreased significantly, although higher-rated enterprises remain the primary issuers [1][20][28]. Industry Policy Overview - The "14th Five-Year" development plan emphasizes a shift from quantity expansion to quality improvement in the construction industry, with ongoing policy adjustments to facilitate industry transformation [2][3]. Industry Development Status - In the first half of 2024, the total output value of the construction industry reached 138,311.86 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 4.60%, but a decline in growth rate compared to the previous year [4][28]. - New contracts signed in the construction industry totaled 149,125.06 billion yuan, a decrease of 3.41% year-on-year, indicating weak industry growth [4][28]. - The total amount of contracts in hand reached 533,035.25 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 3.51%, driven by factors such as project suspensions and reduced government investment [5][28]. Financial Performance - The total operating revenue of construction companies decreased by 3.67% year-on-year, with local state-owned enterprises experiencing the largest revenue decline [6][28]. - The cash flow deficit from operating activities for construction companies expanded by 154.95% year-on-year, primarily due to declining receivables quality [13][28]. - The overall debt burden for construction companies has increased, with the asset-liability ratio rising by 1.09 percentage points compared to the previous year [10][28]. Downstream Industry Development - National fixed asset investment showed a slight year-on-year increase of 3.90% in the first half of 2024, supported by ongoing infrastructure projects [15][28]. - Real estate development investment decreased by 10.10% year-on-year, with new construction areas continuing to decline significantly [16][28]. - The government has introduced various policies to stabilize the real estate market, which are expected to positively impact the construction industry [17][28]. Bond Issuance and Interest Rate Analysis - In the second quarter of 2024, the total bond issuance by construction companies decreased year-on-year and quarter-on-quarter, with a notable decline in short-term bonds [20][28]. - The average bond issuance interest rates for construction companies have shown a downward trend due to a relatively loose credit environment [24][28].

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive shift in the investment rating for the real estate industry, emphasizing a transition from risk mitigation to promoting market stabilization [2][3]. Core Insights - The September Politburo meeting marks a significant policy shift towards stabilizing the real estate market, which has been in decline for three consecutive years, suggesting an improvement in the supply-demand dynamics and overall credit levels in the industry [2][3][6]. - The meeting highlighted the need for strict control over new housing supply, optimization of existing inventory, and enhancement of housing quality, indicating a reshaping of the industry landscape and the acceleration of a new development model [5][6]. - The report anticipates that the combination of supply control and demand stimulation will lead to a recovery in housing prices, benefiting both consumer confidence and economic recovery [6]. Summary by Sections Policy Statements - The Politburo meeting on September 26, 2024, emphasized the need to stabilize the real estate market, control new housing supply, optimize existing inventory, and improve quality, alongside increasing loan support for "white list" projects [4][5]. - Compared to previous meetings, the tone has shifted from risk resolution to proactive measures, indicating a more supportive policy environment for the real estate sector [3][5]. Supply-Side Analysis - The report notes that the emphasis on controlling the quantity and improving the quality of housing signifies a significant reshaping of the industry, with a cautious approach to land supply and a potential decrease in new housing starts [5][6]. - The focus on optimizing existing inventory aligns with previous discussions on supporting the acquisition of existing properties for affordable housing, suggesting a faster pace in securing such properties [5]. Demand-Side Analysis - The meeting addressed the need to respond to public concerns by promoting demand through various measures, including lowering existing mortgage rates and adjusting housing purchase restrictions, which could enhance consumer purchasing power [6]. - The anticipated adjustments in housing purchase policies, particularly in first-tier cities, could lead to a recovery in housing prices, benefiting the overall market [6]. Future Outlook - The report suggests that the combination of improved asset prices and supportive policies will enhance the financial health of real estate companies, leading to a recovery in profitability and overall credit levels in the industry [6]. - The ongoing demand for high-quality housing products and services is expected to benefit developers who can meet these evolving consumer expectations [6].

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the industry or region under review. Core Insights - Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region is strategically important in China's western development strategy, with a relatively low economic scale and per capita GDP compared to national averages [2][3] - The region's government debt has been increasing, but remains at a lower level compared to other provinces, with a general debt ratio [13][15] - Economic growth in 2023 was observed across various cities in Ningxia, with significant disparities in economic size and fiscal strength, particularly with Yinchuan leading [2][16] - Ningxia's local government relies heavily on upper-level subsidies for its fiscal revenue, indicating a weak self-sufficiency in financial resources [13][22] Summary by Sections 1. Economic and Fiscal Strength of Ningxia - Ningxia's economy is characterized by a small total economic output and a per capita GDP that ranks in the lower tier nationally, with a GDP of 5314.95 billion yuan in 2023, growing at a rate of 6.6% [5][7] - The region has a stable industrial structure, with industrial growth being the primary driver of economic expansion, particularly in coal, electricity, and chemical industries [8][10] 2. Fiscal Situation and Debt - In 2023, Ningxia's general public budget revenue was 460.15 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 13.7%, while the government debt balance reached 1996.8 billion yuan, resulting in a debt ratio of 112.2% [14][15] - The fiscal self-sufficiency rate is low, with significant reliance on upper-level subsidies, which accounted for a substantial portion of the region's financial resources [13][22] 3. Economic and Fiscal Conditions of Cities in Ningxia - Yinchuan remains the economic leader among Ningxia's cities, with a GDP of 2685.63 billion yuan and a growth rate of 7.20% in 2023 [21][22] - The fiscal strength of cities varies significantly, with Yinchuan's public budget revenue leading at 197.76 billion yuan, while other cities lag behind [22][23] 4. Debt Situation of Cities - All cities in Ningxia have seen an increase in government debt, with Yinchuan having the highest debt ratio exceeding 150% [26][27] - The report indicates a focus on controlling new debt and actively resolving existing debt issues to mitigate risks [26][28] 5. City Investment Companies' Debt Repayment Capacity - Ningxia has a limited number of investment companies, primarily located in Yinchuan, with most having an AA+ credit rating [28][29] - The debt structure of these companies is primarily based on direct financing, with a significant portion of their debt supported by special refinancing bonds and loans [33][34]

Industry Overview - Yunnan Province has significant regional importance and abundant resources, with a growing economy and GDP per capita ranking in the lower-middle range nationally [2] - The province's industrial structure is continuously optimizing, with the tertiary sector being the main driver of economic growth [3] - Yunnan's transportation network is well-developed, with significant investments planned during the 14th Five-Year Plan period, exceeding 1.3 trillion yuan [3][4] - The province has rich natural resources, including water, coal, minerals, and solar energy, ranking high nationally in several categories [6] Economic and Fiscal Strength - Yunnan's GDP in 2023 reached 3,002.112 billion yuan, ranking 18th nationally, with a growth rate of 4.4% [6] - The tertiary sector contributed 51.8% to the GDP in 2023, with significant growth in high-tech industries and tourism [7] - Yunnan's general public budget revenue in 2023 was 214.944 billion yuan, with a fiscal self-sufficiency rate of 31.94% [15] - The province's government debt ratio and debt burden are relatively high, ranking 30th and 23rd nationally, respectively [16] Regional Economic Disparities - Economic development in Yunnan is uneven, with the central Kunming-centered urban agglomeration being the strongest [17] - Kunming's GDP accounted for 26.20% of the province's total in 2023, significantly higher than other regions [20] - Yuxi City leads in GDP per capita, while Zhaotong City ranks last [20] - The central urban agglomeration accounts for 50.49% of the province's population, with relatively high urbanization rates [21] Local Government Debt and Fiscal Conditions - Local government debt balances increased across all regions in 2023, with Yuxi, Kunming, Lijiang, Dehong, and Baoshan having the heaviest debt burdens [29] - Kunming and Yuxi have relatively higher fiscal self-sufficiency rates, while other regions rely heavily on upper-level subsidies [23][25] - Government debt ratios in most regions exceed 30%, with Yuxi, Kunming, Lijiang, Dehong, and Baoshan having debt ratios above 200% [30] Urban Investment Enterprises (UIEs) - As of June 2024, Yunnan has 45 UIEs with outstanding bonds, primarily concentrated in Kunming [33] - In 2023, Yunnan's UIEs issued 70 bonds totaling 55.368 billion yuan, with Kunming accounting for 90.43% of the issuance [36] - The net financing of UIEs in 2023 was negative, but turned positive in the first half of 2024, with Kunming and Pu'er contributing significantly [36] - Most UIEs face significant short-term debt repayment pressures, especially in Kunming, where large bond maturities are expected in Q4 2024 and 2025 [38] Debt Support and Fiscal Capacity - The ratio of "UIE total debt + local government debt" to "comprehensive fiscal capacity" ranges from 100% to 600%, with Kunming nearing 600% and Yuxi exceeding 300% [41] - Fiscal revenues in regions like Honghe, Baoshan, Lijiang, and Dehong provide limited support for debt repayment, with ratios exceeding 200% [41]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the industry or region under review. Core Insights - Liaoning Province, located in Northeast China, is a significant old industrial base with key industries including equipment manufacturing, metallurgy, and petrochemicals. The province's economic total ranks in the middle of the country, while its per capita GDP is below the national average. In 2023, the province's general public budget revenue ranked 18th nationally, showing strong stability but a low fiscal self-sufficiency rate. The real estate market's downturn has led to a decline in government fund income, with substantial reliance on upper-level subsidies for local financial strength. The province faces high government debt and liability rates, but national policies supporting the revitalization of Northeast China present development opportunities [2][10]. Summary by Sections 1. Economic and Fiscal Strength of Liaoning Province - Liaoning Province is rich in mineral resources and has a well-established transportation system. It is a crucial old industrial base in China, with a GDP of 30,209.4 billion yuan in 2023, reflecting a growth rate of 5.3%. The province's economic structure is shifting towards a more significant contribution from the tertiary sector, which accounted for 52.4% of the GDP in 2023 [3][5][7]. 2. Fiscal Situation and Debt - In 2023, Liaoning's general public budget revenue was 275.53 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 9.1%. The province's fiscal self-sufficiency rate was 41.91%, indicating a reliance on upper-level subsidies, which contributed 53.21% to local financial resources. The local government debt rate was 187.98%, ranking third nationally, indicating a heavy debt burden [10][11][13][28]. 3. Economic and Fiscal Strength of Cities in Liaoning Province - Economic development in Liaoning's cities is uneven, with Shenyang and Dalian showing significantly higher economic strength. In 2023, Shenyang and Dalian accounted for 29.11% and 27.01% of the province's GDP, respectively. The GDP growth rates among cities varied, with the lowest being 1.6% in Liaoyang and the highest at 6.1% in Shenyang [14][20][21]. 4. Debt Situation of Cities - By the end of 2023, all cities in Liaoning saw an increase in government debt compared to the previous year, with Dalian and Shenyang having the highest debt balances. The debt rates for cities like Panjin and Yingkou exceeded 400%, indicating significant financial pressure [27][28]. 5. City Investment and Financing - The number of bond-issuing urban investment enterprises in Liaoning is limited, primarily at the city level. In 2023, the issuance of bonds by these enterprises decreased, with a notable net outflow of financing. However, in early 2024, Shenyang's urban investment enterprises saw a significant increase in bond issuance, indicating a potential recovery in financing conditions [29][31].

Investment Rating - The report indicates a stable credit risk outlook for the power industry, with overall credit risk being controllable [24]. Core Viewpoints - The power supply in China is secure and stable, with a balanced supply-demand situation expected for 2024, despite some regional tightness during peak summer periods [1][24]. - The transition towards a greener and low-carbon power structure is evident, driven by the continuous advancement of market reforms and carbon neutrality goals [1][24]. - The profitability of thermal power companies has improved due to falling coal prices and sustained high grid prices, although they still face cost control pressures during the winter storage phase [1][24]. - The clean energy sector, particularly wind and solar power, is rapidly expanding, contributing to the overall growth in power generation capacity [1][24]. Summary by Sections 1. Power Industry Operation in H1 2024 - National electricity consumption reached 4.66 trillion kWh, a year-on-year increase of 8.1%, with significant growth in high-tech manufacturing and internet data services [3][5]. - The second industry accounted for 65.9% of total electricity consumption, with notable increases in high-tech sectors such as electrical machinery and photovoltaic equipment manufacturing [5][6]. 2. Power Production and Supply - Total investment in the power sector was 598.1 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.6%, with grid investment rising by 23.7% [6][7]. - New installed capacity reached 153 million kW, with solar power accounting for 67.1% of new installations [6][7]. - The average utilization hours for various power generation types decreased, but overall generation increased by 5.2% to 4.44 trillion kWh [8]. 3. Policy and Dynamics - The government has issued guidelines to enhance energy storage and smart grid capabilities, supporting the integration of renewable energy [9][10]. - New policies aim to ensure the full purchase of renewable energy and promote the development of wind and solar projects in rural areas [11][12]. 4. Financial Performance of Power Companies - In H1 2024, the power sector saw a significant bond issuance of 289.5 billion yuan, primarily from high-credit-rated companies [14][15]. - The average cost of short-term financing bonds decreased to approximately 1.90%-2.00% [15][17]. - The overall financial health of power companies improved, with increased revenue and profitability driven by favorable coal prices and high grid prices [17][19]. 5. Credit Risk Outlook - The overall credit risk for the power industry remains manageable, supported by strong financing capabilities and government backing for state-owned enterprises [24].

2024 年半年度再保险行业分析 联合资信金融评级一部 www.lhratings.com 研究报告 1 2023 年，直保公司保费收入整体实现较快发展，对再保险行业发展起推动作用。 再保险业务基于原保险合同展开，再保险业务覆盖直保公司人身险及财产险全险种业 务，直保行业的发展对再保险行业发展具有推动作用。人身险行业方面，2023 年，在 预定利率调整预期及居民购买储蓄型险种需求上升的背景下，储蓄类寿险业务实现较 好发展，带动人身险公司保费收入实现较好增长，但其中医疗、重疾等保障型产品增 长较为乏力；三季度以来，随着高预定利率产品的陆续停售，人身险公司保险业务收 入增速有所下降；同时 2023 年 8 月以来，为进一步规范银行代理渠道业务，监管在 人身险公司银保渠道施行"报行合一"，要求保险产品佣金等实际费用与备案材料保 持一致，银保渠道手续费用下降且部分保险公司在制度实施初期短暂暂停银保新单业 务开展，"报行合一"的实施对人身险公司银保业务保费收入及对市场竞争情况影响 需保持关注。财产险行业方面，2023 年以来，在国内新车销量快速增长的带动下，车 险业务保费收入稳步增长；但受政策变动因素影响，责任险及健康 ...

2024 年半年度人身保险行业分析 联合资信 金融评级一部 www.lhratings.com 研究报告 1 2023 年，在预定利率调整预期及居民购买储蓄型险种需求上升的背景下，人身 险公司保费收入实现较好增长；随着高预定利率产品的陆续停售，需关注未来人身险 公司原保险保费收入变动情况，同时"报行合一"要求对人身险公司银保业务保费收 入影响及对市场竞争情况影响需保持关注。2023 年初，得益于市场对预定利率调整 的预期，市场对寿险产品需求得到一定程度的集中释放；同时，在资本市场波动、利 率持续下行的外部环境影响下，居民购买储蓄型保险产品需求亦有所上升，上述因素 叠加影响，2023 年上半年人身险公司原保费收入增速较上年同期大幅提升；三季度 以来，随着高预定利率产品的陆续停售，人身险公司原保险保费收入增速有所下降。 另一方面，2023 年 8 月以来，为进一步规范银行代理渠道业务，监管在人身险公司 银保渠道施行"报行合一"要求，要求保险产品佣金等实际费用与备案材料保持一致， 部分保险公司在施行上述要求的过程中，暂停了银保新单业务的开展；同时，在"报 行合一"要求下，银保渠道费用下降可能会影响相关业务开展积极性 ...