| --- | |--------------------------------------------------------------| | | | 双双回落，通胀压力处于可控范围 --12 年展望 ,2022年1 月12日 | | --- | --- | |--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------| | 1 2 20 02 24 4 年 年第 8 月 41 7 期 日 | 月价格数据点评 通胀水平延续回落、物价稳中 进出口数据点评 宏观经济 | | | 海外经济下行风险显 ...

Economic Growth - The GDP weighted average growth rate for provinces with over 2 trillion in GDP is 5.2%, while the remaining provinces average 4.6%[2] - Only 8 provinces exceeded their annual growth targets, indicating significant pressure for stable growth in the second half of the year[2] - Provinces with low GDP growth rates are primarily affected by declines in real estate investment and weak consumer demand[3] Industrial Production - National industrial added value growth was 6.0% in the first half of 2024, with 25 provinces exceeding this rate[5] - Eastern provinces, excluding Shanghai and Tianjin, showed resilience in industrial production, with Jiangsu, Shandong, and Zhejiang achieving growth rates of 8.6%, 8.5%, and 8.0% respectively[5] - Industrial production in many provinces is increasing without corresponding profit growth, raising concerns about profitability[6] Fixed Asset Investment - Fixed asset investment growth was 3.9% nationwide, slower than GDP growth, with many provinces falling short of their targets[10] - Only three provinces (Shanghai, Guizhou, and Tianjin) reported positive growth in real estate development investment, while 17 provinces saw declines exceeding the national average[11] - Guangdong's real estate investment dropped by 16.8%, with a 30.6% decrease in commercial housing sales area[11] Export Performance - Eastern economic provinces showed strong export growth, while some central provinces like Henan experienced declines due to industrial chain shifts[2] - Border provinces benefited from improved border trade, leading to higher export growth rates[2]

www.ccxi.com.cn 中诚信国际 特别评论 光伏制造行业 2024 年上半年光伏制造产业链各环节供需失衡加剧，价格持续探底， 行业整体亏损面扩大，相关企业面临的财务挑战和信用风险有所上升。 对此光伏企业采取降低开工率、延缓项目投产时间等措施，行业已进 入去产能阶段；而考虑到光伏发电装机较大的增量空间以及多项引导 行业健康发展的措施出台，阶段性供需错配导致的波动不会改变行业 发展长期向好的趋势。 要点 2024 年以来国内光伏新增装机规模增速明显放缓，欧美各国和 其他新兴市场持续推进能源结构转型，海外光伏装机需求相对旺 盛，整体来看全球光伏装机高增长预期不变，但我国光伏制造行 业面临的贸易摩擦有所抬头。 在前期大幅扩产的背景下，目前我国光伏主材产业链各环节均呈 现产能过剩状态，2024 年以来供需错配的情况加剧，产品价格 低于企业成本线，行业亏损面扩大，财务压力亦进一步上升。但 上述因素也间接造成制造端企业生产和项目投产受阻，扩产进程 减慢，可一定程度上缓解产业链阶段性产能过剩。 落后产能出清进程的加快一定程度上有助于价格回归正常供需 逻辑，预计反弹空间有限，2024 年下半年行业盈利水平和获现 能力 ...

www.ccxi.com.cn 中诚信国际 特别评论 光伏制造行业 2024 年上半年光伏制造产业链各环节供需失衡加剧，价格持续探底， 行业整体亏损面扩大，相关企业面临的财务挑战和信用风险有所上升。 对此光伏企业采取降低开工率、延缓项目投产时间等措施，行业已进 入去产能阶段；而考虑到光伏发电装机较大的增量空间以及多项引导 行业健康发展的措施出台，阶段性供需错配导致的波动不会改变行业 发展长期向好的趋势。 要点 2024 年以来国内光伏新增装机规模增速明显放缓，欧美各国和 其他新兴市场持续推进能源结构转型，海外光伏装机需求相对旺 盛，整体来看全球光伏装机高增长预期不变，但我国光伏制造行 业面临的贸易摩擦有所抬头。 在前期大幅扩产的背景下，目前我国光伏主材产业链各环节均呈 现产能过剩状态，2024 年以来供需错配的情况加剧，产品价格 低于企业成本线，行业亏损面扩大，财务压力亦进一步上升。但 上述因素也间接造成制造端企业生产和项目投产受阻，扩产进程 减慢，可一定程度上缓解产业链阶段性产能过剩。 落后产能出清进程的加快一定程度上有助于价格回归正常供需 逻辑，预计反弹空间有限，2024 年下半年行业盈利水平和获现 能力 ...

Economic Insights - The Federal Reserve signaled a potential interest rate cut in September, maintaining the federal funds rate at 5.25% to 5.5%[9] - In July, the U.S. non-farm payrolls added 114,000 jobs, significantly below the previous month's 206,000, with the unemployment rate rising to 4.3%[10] - The Bank of Canada cut its policy rate by 25 basis points to 4.5%, marking the second consecutive rate cut[11] - The Bank of England lowered its main interest rate by 0.25% to 5%, the first cut since the pandemic began[12] Market Reactions - Following Japan's unexpected interest rate hike to 0.25%, the Nikkei 225 index plummeted by 12.4%, erasing all gains for the year[3] - The Japanese yen appreciated sharply, leading to significant volatility in Asian stock markets, with South Korea and Turkey experiencing market halts[3][4] Inflation and Debt Concerns - The U.S. federal debt surpassed $35 trillion, with a projected budget deficit of $1.9 trillion for FY 2024, up 27% from earlier estimates[20] - In Bangladesh, inflation reached a decade-high of 9.73%, exacerbated by rising living costs and unemployment rates[8] International Developments - The EU transferred $1.6 billion from frozen Russian assets to Ukraine to support military purchases[33] - Turkey's trade deficit decreased by 30.5% in the first half of the year, with the World Bank approving $3.7 billion in financing for the country[36]

Zha ng GDP 增速超预期但供需失衡加剧， 关注大类资产配置的结构性机会 wenyu261 地方政府债与城投行业监测周报 2022 年第 9 期 隐性债务监管高压态势不变强调防范"处置风险的风险" ——2024 年上半年宏观经济及大类资产配置分析与展望 2024 年上半年 GDP 增长前快后慢，一季度同比增长 5.3%，二季度同比增长 4.7%，低于市场预期的 5.1%，内需偏弱对生产的拖累或开始显现。具体来看， 上半年经济运行呈现出多重主要特征：一是工业与服务业生产边际走弱，但高 技术制造业与现代服务业生产依然保持较快增长；二是房地产开发投资依然大 幅下滑，拖累固定资产投资增速边际下行，但装备制造业与高技术制造业投资 依然保持较高增长；三是专项债与特别国债发行节奏偏慢，基础设施建设投资 增速边际走低；四是社会消费品零售总额环比为负、服务零售增速持续下行， 消费走弱的压力进一步凸显；五是受制于终端消费低迷和供需失衡，价格水平 持续处于低位；六是货币供给及社融增速触及历史新低，融资需求改善有待财 政政策进一步发力。 从大类资产配置来看，上半年，股票指数表现不佳，上证综指、深证成指、 创业板指均有所下跌，跌 ...

上半年内需走弱压力未减，全会后风险偏好有待提升 ——2024 年上半年宏观经济及大类资产配置分析与展望 （二）拖累经济运行的风险与挑战 微观主体预期和信心恢复偏弱偏慢，放大供需失衡压力并制约政策效果。当前有效需求 不足的背后是居民部门和企业部门预期和信心偏弱。从居民部门来看，居民提前还贷、超额 储蓄现象仍存，在支出结构中呈现出一定的消费下沉和消费降级现象。2022 年以来消费者信 心指数持续保持低位震荡，今年二季度消费者信心指数从 3 月的 89.4 降至 5 月的 86.4，为 2023 年 7 月以来的最低水平，相较常态 120 左右的指数水平差距较大。从企业部门来看，利 润修复偏慢制约了企业的投资意愿，上半年工业企业营收利润率为5.41%，显著低于近三年平 均水平（6.35%），不利于工业企业"生产-盈利-再投资"的循环。此外民间投资增速持持续 低位运行，上半年民间投资增速仅为 0.1%，显著低于固定资产投资的整体增速，民间投资占 固定资产投资的比重回落至 51.87%的低位水平。6 月中小企业预期指数为 49.9，也降至 2023 年以来的最低水平。预期不稳之下市场主体扩表意愿不足，货币供给增速持续低 ...

6 月工业企业利润数据点评： 成本边际走低叠加价格降幅收窄，工业企业利润小幅回升 关注周转偏慢、装备制造业盈利放缓问题 www.ccxi.com.cn 1 www.ccxi.com.cn 2 附图： 2024-04 2024-05 2024-06 6 月工业企业利润数据点评： 成本边际走低叠加价格降幅收窄，工业企业利润小幅回升 关注周转偏慢、装备制造业盈利放缓问题 中诚信国际信用评级有限责任公司 | --- | --- | --- | |--------|--------------------------|-------| | | | | | | | | | 邮编： | 100020 | | | | 电话：（ 86010）66428877 | | | | 传真：（ 86010）66426100 | | | 网址： | http://www.ccxi.com.cn | | | --- | --- | |-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|--- ...

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - The Japanese real estate market has undergone significant changes, with a notable shift from housing shortages to oversupply due to demographic changes such as aging and declining birth rates [2][3] - The report emphasizes the importance of learning from Japan's real estate bubble and subsequent economic stagnation to avoid similar pitfalls in China [2] - The current state of the Chinese real estate market is compared to Japan's 1990s bubble period, highlighting both similarities and structural differences [2] Summary by Sections Japanese Real Estate Market Characteristics - The real estate sector contributes approximately 12% to Japan's GDP, maintaining its significance even during economic downturns [3] - Post-World War II, Japan implemented three key policies to address housing shortages, leading to a significant increase in housing supply [4] - The market has evolved into an oligopoly, with the top 20 real estate companies controlling over 50% of the market [2][3] Housing Supply and Demand - Japan's housing supply was initially bolstered by government-funded public housing, which accounted for about 36% of new housing from 1945 to 1975 [4] - By 2018, Japan's housing vacancy rate rose to 13.6%, indicating an oversupply situation exacerbated by demographic shifts [5] Real Estate Sales and Rental Market - New homes dominate sales, with second-hand homes having a low transaction rate of less than 15% due to quality concerns [7] - The rental market is well-developed, with a 40% rental rate and a diverse range of rental supply sources [8] Homeownership and Financial Pressure - The proportion of self-funded home purchases exceeds 20%, with significant variations across different housing types [11] - The housing price-to-income ratio in Japan is notably high, with the ratio in the Tokyo metropolitan area reaching 7.6 times, indicating substantial pressure on young buyers [11] Taxation and Policy Framework - Japan has a comprehensive real estate tax system that encourages long-term ownership and imposes heavier taxes on short-term speculation [19][21] - Local governments have significant autonomy in tax collection, making real estate taxes a crucial revenue source [21] Market Structure and Competition - The Japanese real estate market is characterized by a high number of participants, with over 368,600 registered companies, but a concentration of revenue among a few large firms [23] - The market has seen a significant reduction in credit risk since 2010, with the bankruptcy rate in the real estate sector stabilizing [23] Historical Development of the Market - The report outlines three distinct phases of the Japanese real estate market: rapid growth (1956-1990), bubble burst (1991-2008), and recovery (2009-present) [29][38] - The bubble period was marked by excessive speculation and a subsequent crash that led to prolonged economic stagnation [36][38] Current Trends and Future Outlook - Recent economic policies under "Abenomics" have stimulated a moderate recovery in the real estate market, with increased foreign investment and improved housing demand [39][40] - The report suggests that Japan's experience can provide valuable lessons for China's ongoing real estate adjustments and policy implementations [2][39]

CPI、PPI 双双回落，通胀压力处于可控范围-- 12 月价格数据点评及 2022 年展望,2022 年 1 月 12 日 CPI、PPI 双双回落，通胀压力处于可控范围-- 12 月价格数据点评及 2022 年展望,2022 年 1 月 12 日 010-66 需求边际改善 PMI 小幅回 升，经济持续弱修复 428877-281 1 月价格数据点评 通胀水平延续回落、物价稳中 作者: 中诚信国际 企业评级部 蒋 螣 0755-82969261 tjiang @ccxi.com.cn 石 炻 0755-82969261 sshi @ccxi.com.cn www.ccxi.com.cn 市场跟踪 房地产行业 行业热点 房企半年度亏损面较广， 三中全会定调防范化解房地产风险 ——2024 年 7 月房地产市场跟踪 其他联络人 龚天璇 027-87339288 txgong@ccxi.com.cn 行业半年度亏损面较广，销售业绩表现不佳，预计全年盈利表现 仍将承压，但销售数据在 6月份出现积极变化，全年降幅在低基数 以及政策效果持续作用下有望缩窄。 新政后市场冲高回落，去库存任重道远---- 2024年 6月 ...