Report Industry Investment Ratings - Thread: ☆☆☆, indicating a relatively balanced short - term trend with poor operability on the trading floor [1] - Hot - rolled coil: ☆☆☆, same as thread [1] - Iron ore: ☆☆☆, same as thread [1] - Coke: ★☆★, with a certain upward - driving force but limited operability [1] - Coking coal: ★☆☆, showing a slight upward - driving force but limited operability [1] - Silicomanganese: ★☆★, with a certain upward - driving force but limited operability [1] - Ferrosilicon: ★☆☆, showing a slight upward - driving force but limited operability [1] Core Viewpoints - The steel market is mainly in a short - term shock state, and the rebound momentum is insufficient. The iron ore market is expected to be in a high - level shock in the short term. The coke and coking coal markets are likely to be prone to rise and difficult to fall. The silicomanganese and ferrosilicon markets may have a certain rebound due to the drive of coking coal [1][2][3][5][6][7] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Steel - The trading floor fluctuated today. During the long holiday, the apparent demand for thread dropped significantly, and the output decreased slightly while the inventory accumulated greatly. The demand for hot - rolled coil also declined, with similar output and inventory changes. The molten iron output remained high, but the downstream's ability to absorb was insufficient. The profit of steel mills declined, and the negative feedback expectation in the industrial chain continued to ferment. The PMI in September rebounded to 49.8, and the manufacturing industry showed marginal stability. The real - estate sales decline widened during the long holiday, and the overall domestic demand was still weak. Steel exports remained high, but the additional tariffs from the outside world brought some disturbances. After continuous adjustments, the trading floor stabilized slightly, but the rebound momentum was still insufficient, and it will mainly fluctuate in the short term [1] Iron Ore - The trading floor of iron ore rose today. The global shipment decreased month - on - month, while the domestic arrival volume rebounded, and the port inventory increased, especially the Brazilian ore. The molten iron output remained high with toughness, but the profitability of steel mills continued to weaken. Steel mills had a certain replenishment demand before and after the National Day, but as the profit of steel mills shrank and the domestic demand was still relatively low, the pressure of future production cuts gradually increased. There were still some policy expectations in the market, but the uncertainty of foreign trade frictions remained. It is expected to be in a high - level shock in the short term [2] Coke - The price fluctuated within the day. The first round of price increase in the coking industry was fully implemented, and the second round was postponed. The profit level was average, the daily output decreased slightly, and the inventory decreased slightly. After the pre - holiday replenishment, the downstream was mainly consuming inventory, and the purchasing intention of traders was average. Overall, the supply of carbon elements was abundant, and the high - level molten iron output supported the raw materials. The trading floor of coke had a slight premium, and due to the market's expectation of safety production assessment in the main coking coal production areas, the price was likely to be prone to rise and difficult to fall [3] Coking Coal - The price fluctuated within the day. The output of coking coal mines increased slightly, the spot auction transactions decreased slightly, and the transaction price remained stable. The terminal inventory decreased, and the total inventory of coking coal decreased significantly month - on - month while the production - end inventory increased slightly. During the double festivals, some coking coal mines actively reduced production efficiency, resulting in a decline in output. Overall, the supply of carbon elements was abundant, and the high - level molten iron output supported the raw materials. The trading floor of coking coal had a slight discount to Mongolian coal, and due to the market's expectation of safety production assessment in the main coking coal production areas, the price was likely to be prone to rise and difficult to fall [5] Silicomanganese - The price fluctuated slightly within the day. The molten iron output remained high on the demand side. The weekly output of silicomanganese continued to increase, reaching a relatively high level, and the inventory did not accumulate. The forward quotation of manganese ore increased slightly month - on - month, and the spot ore was boosted by the trading floor. Although the manganese ore inventory was accumulating, the speed was slow. Driven by coking coal, there might be a certain rebound in price [6] Ferrosilicon - The price fluctuated slightly within the day. The molten iron output remained high on the demand side. The export demand remained at about 30,000 tons, with a marginal impact. The output of magnesium metal decreased slightly month - on - month, and the secondary demand declined marginally. The overall demand was acceptable. The supply of ferrosilicon recovered to a high level, and the market's spot and futures demand was good, with a slight reduction in the on - balance - sheet inventory. Driven by coking coal, there might be a certain rebound in price [7]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: ★☆☆, indicating a bearish bias with limited trading opportunities [1] - Fuel oil: ★☆☆, suggesting a bearish outlook with low operability [1] - Low-sulfur fuel oil: ★☆☆, showing a bearish tendency with poor trading feasibility [1] - Asphalt: ☆☆☆, meaning a short-term equilibrium with low operability, advising to wait and see [1] - Liquefied petroleum gas (LPG): ★☆☆, representing a bearish view with limited trading potential [1] Core Viewpoints - The overall view of the energy market is bearish, mainly due to geopolitical risk mitigation and supply-demand imbalances [2][3][5] - The impact of the ceasefire agreement in Gaza on the market needs continuous attention, especially its influence on the Russia-Ukraine situation [2] Summaries by Directory Crude Oil - Overnight international oil prices fell, with the SC11 contract dropping 1.45% intraday [2] - The ceasefire agreement in Gaza eases geopolitical risks in the Middle East [2] - The marginal increase in surplus pressure in Q4 and Q1 next year remains the main trading theme, so a bearish approach is recommended [2] Fuel Oil & Low-Sulfur Fuel Oil - The breakthrough in the Israel-Palestine ceasefire negotiation causes the decline of geopolitical risk premium, leading to the drop of crude oil and fuel oil prices [3] - High-sulfur fuel oil is supported by damaged devices and refinery seasonal maintenance in the short term, but supply pressure may emerge in the medium term [3] - The high-sulfur marine fuel demand may be suppressed if the Red Sea resumes navigation [3] - Low-sulfur fuel oil faces continuous supply pressure and weak demand, with a loose supply-demand pattern [3] Asphalt - The latest inventory shows a slight increase in refinery inventory and a significant decrease in social inventory, with overall commercial inventory lower than before the holiday [4] - A refinery postponed its maintenance and started it from mid-October to mid-November [4] - The asphalt market maintains a tight supply-demand balance and is under pressure due to the weakening cost end [4] Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG) - The future production increase of OPEC+ intensifies the supply pressure of overseas associated gas [5] - The CP price cut in Saudi Arabia in October exceeds market expectations, leading to a decline in import costs [5] - The market sentiment is cautious, and downstream enterprises mainly purchase for rigid demand after the holiday [5] - LPG is under short-term pressure, and the improvement of combustion demand after the temperature drops needs attention [5]

Investment Ratings - Gold: ★☆☆, indicating a bullish bias but limited operability in the market [1] - Silver: ★☆★, with a somewhat more complex rating, perhaps suggesting a mix of short - term and long - term considerations [1] Core Views - The medium - to long - term upward logic of precious metals remains unchanged. However, with the entry into force of the first - phase Gaza cease - fire agreement and gold and silver reaching their integer - level target prices, the short - term upward momentum of gold has slowed, and silver's volatility has increased. There is a need to be wary of adjustments due to profit - taking by funds, and caution should be exercised at historical highs [1] Other Summaries Central Bank and Policy - Related - Fed officials have different views on interest rate cuts. Williams supports further cuts, believing the labor market may slow further; Barr advocates caution in cutting rates; Kashkari generally agrees with Barr; Daly thinks policy remains moderately tight after the September cut, and the Fed is expected to implement more cuts as part of risk management [2] - High - ranking Japanese official Takaichi Sanae has no intention of causing excessive yen depreciation, and it's unclear when the next interest rate hike will occur, but she is likely to be cautious. Yen weakness has both positive and negative impacts on the economy [2] - The central bank of the Democratic Republic of the Congo plans to build up its gold reserves during the gold price surge to stabilize the national currency [2]

Oil Market - International oil prices have declined, with Brent crude falling by 1.29%. The Israeli cabinet's approval of a ceasefire agreement in Gaza marks a significant breakthrough in the ongoing Israel-Palestine conflict, potentially easing geopolitical risks in the Middle East. However, there are concerns about supply-demand imbalances in the fourth quarter and the first quarter of the following year, which may increase market volatility [2][3]. Precious Metals - International gold prices have surpassed $4,000 per ounce, while silver prices briefly exceeded $50 per ounce, reaching a historical high before retreating. The long-term upward trend for precious metals remains intact, but short-term price increases may slow down due to the announcement of a peace agreement between the U.S. and Israel [3][4]. Copper Market - Copper prices initially rose to $11,000 per ton before declining, with domestic prices also increasing. The U.S. government shutdown and differing views within the Federal Reserve regarding interest rate cuts have contributed to market fluctuations. Current copper inventories are at a relatively high level, and while there is potential for new highs driven by capital, maintaining upward momentum may be challenging [4][5]. Aluminum Market - The aluminum market has shown strength, with domestic prices breaking previous highs. However, the overall consumption remains lackluster, and macroeconomic factors are driving prices upward without sufficient fundamental support [5][6]. Zinc Market - The zinc market is experiencing pressure, with LME zinc inventories at 38,300 tons and a significant portion of contracts being canceled. Despite weak downstream consumption, the market is expected to remain in a low-price range, with short-term fluctuations anticipated [8][9]. Lead Market - Lead inventories have decreased, and prices are gradually recovering. The market is currently cautious, with a focus on changes in fund sentiment. The overall supply-demand balance remains tight, and there is potential for price increases due to low inventories [9][10]. Nickel Market - Nickel prices have rebounded from low levels, but the market remains subdued due to high inventories and overcapacity. Short-term price movements are expected to be volatile, with no strong bullish outlook [10][11]. Lithium Carbonate Market - Lithium carbonate prices are experiencing low volatility, with market activity remaining subdued. Recent price quotes indicate stability, but the market lacks strong bullish support [12][13]. Steel Market - The steel market is facing challenges, with significant inventory accumulation and weak demand. The PMI for September indicates marginal stabilization in manufacturing, but overall demand remains weak, particularly in the real estate sector [14][15]. Iron Ore Market - Iron ore prices have increased, driven by concerns over supply disruptions. However, demand remains relatively low, and there are expectations of production cuts as steel mill profits decline [15][16]. Coal Market - The coal market is experiencing price increases, supported by stable demand from the steel industry. However, overall supply remains high, and the market is cautious about future price movements [16][17]. Agricultural Products - The soybean market is seeing fluctuations due to U.S. inventory levels and trade tensions. Domestic supply is expected to remain stable, but external factors may impact prices [36][37]. Palm Oil Market - Palm oil prices have strengthened due to positive market sentiment and expected supply reductions. However, the overall market remains cautious, with potential for fluctuations based on external demand [37][38]. Corn Market - The corn market is facing downward pressure due to slow harvest progress and weak demand. Prices are expected to remain low as market participants adopt a bearish outlook [40][41]. Livestock Market - The livestock market is under pressure, with significant price declines observed in both pork and egg markets. Supply pressures are expected to continue, leading to cautious market sentiment [41][42].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Cotton: ★☆☆, indicating a bullish/bearish bias with a driving force for price movement but limited operability on the trading floor [1] - Pulp: ★★★, suggesting a clearer bullish/bearish trend with a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1] - Sugar: ☆☆☆, meaning the short - term bullish/bearish trend is in a relatively balanced state with poor operability on the trading floor, and it's advisable to wait and see [1] - Apple: ★☆☆, showing a bullish/bearish bias with a driving force for price movement but limited operability on the trading floor [1] - Logs: ★☆☆, indicating a bullish/bearish bias with a driving force for price movement but limited operability on the trading floor [1] - Natural Rubber: ★☆☆, showing a bullish/bearish bias with a driving force for price movement but limited operability on the trading floor [1] - 20 - rubber: ★☆☆, indicating a bullish/bearish bias with a driving force for price movement but limited operability on the trading floor [1] - Butadiene Rubber: ★☆☆, showing a bullish/bearish bias with a driving force for price movement but limited operability on the trading floor [1] Core Views - Cotton & Cotton Yarn: Zhengzhou cotton rebounded. Xinjiang cotton purchase price fluctuated during the National Day. Pure cotton yarn prices were stable but weak. The new year has a strong production increase expectation, supply may increase significantly, and demand remains weak. It's advisable to wait and see [2] - Sugar: Brazilian sugar production data is bearish, and domestic sugar is expected to maintain a weak and volatile trend. The market focus is on the next season's production estimate, and the production in Guangxi in the 25/26 season is expected to be good [3] - Apple: The futures price rose and then fell. The listing and sales of new - season Red Fuji were affected by rain. The supply lacks bullish drivers, and the cold - storage inventory may be higher than expected, so a bearish strategy is maintained [4] - 20 - rubber, Natural Rubber & Synthetic Rubber: During the National Day, international rubber futures prices fluctuated, and today's prices rose. Supply pressure is high, demand declined during the holiday, inventory reduction is difficult, and the strategy is to rebound due to the end of risk - aversion sentiment [6] - Pulp: The pulp futures price continued to fall to a new low. The inventory decreased slightly, but the supply is relatively loose, and demand is average. It's advisable to wait and see [7] - Logs: The futures price fluctuated. The supply is expected to remain low, demand in the peak season is emerging, inventory pressure is small, and a bullish strategy is maintained [8] Summary by Commodity Cotton & Cotton Yarn - Zhengzhou cotton rebounded, and new cotton's fixed - price quotes decreased compared to before the holiday [2] - Xinjiang cotton purchase price first fell and then rose during the National Day, with normal - moisture purchase prices mostly in the 6 - 6.2 yuan/kg range [2] - Pure cotton yarn prices were stable but weak, and the peak - season performance was not strong [2] - Since mid - September, the continuous decline of Zhengzhou cotton has had a negative impact on cotton purchase prices, and ginners are cautious in purchasing [2] - The new year has a strong production increase expectation, supply may increase significantly, and demand remains weak [2] - Macroscopically, pay attention to the China - US negotiation at the APEC meeting in South Korea at the end of October [2] - It's advisable to wait and see [2] Sugar - During the holiday, US sugar fluctuated. Brazilian sugar production data in the first half of September was bearish, with increased cane crushing and sugar production [3] - Although this year's cane crushing volume and sugar yield decreased, the increased sugar - making ratio compensated for the loss in sugar production, and Brazil's sugar production will remain high [3] - Domestic Zhengzhou sugar was weakly volatile. The sales rhythm this year was fast, and the spot pressure was relatively light [3] - The market's trading focus has shifted to the next season's production estimate [3] - After July, rainfall in Guangxi was good, and the sugar production in Guangxi in the 25/26 season is expected to be good [3] - Sugar prices are expected to maintain a weak and volatile trend [3] Apple - The futures price rose and then fell [4] - The new - season Red Fuji's listing was delayed due to rain in the production area, and the sales speed slowed down [4] - The spot market had high expectations for the opening price of early - maturing apples [4] - The apple production in the 25/26 season is expected to change little year - on - year, and the supply lacks bullish drivers [4] - In Shaanxi, farmers are bullish, and the reserved fruit volume increased. The cold - storage inventory of new - season Red Fuji may be higher than expected [4] - A bearish strategy is maintained [4] 20 - rubber, Natural Rubber & Synthetic Rubber - During the National Day, Singapore and Japanese rubber futures prices fluctuated sharply, and international crude oil futures prices first fell and then rose [6] - Today, RU&NR&BR prices rose, and market sentiment improved [6] - Domestic natural and synthetic rubber prices generally rose, and the port price of butadiene overseas was stable [6] - The global natural rubber supply has entered the high - yield period [6] - Before the holiday, the operating rate of domestic butadiene rubber plants continued to decline significantly, with some plants shutting down for maintenance and some restarting [6] - The operating rate of upstream butadiene plants increased [6] - During the National Day, tire enterprises had holidays, and the domestic tire operating rate decreased [6] - Before the holiday, the total natural rubber inventory in Qingdao decreased to 45.65 tons, with a slight decrease in bonded - area inventory and a large decrease in general - trade inventory [6] - The social inventory of Chinese butadiene rubber continued to fall to 1.22 tons, and the upstream butadiene port inventory in China rose to 2.78 tons [6] - During the National Day, demand decreased, supply pressure was high, inventory reduction was difficult, and geopolitical risks decreased. The strategy is to rebound due to the end of risk - aversion sentiment [6] Pulp - The pulp futures price continued to fall to a new low [7] - As of September 25, 2025, the inventory of mainstream Chinese pulp ports decreased by 7.9 tons to 203.3 tons, a 3.7% month - on - month decrease [7] - The digestion of warehouse receipts is slow, and the warehouse receipts of Russian needles still suppress the near - term contracts [7] - The current import inventory in China is relatively high year - on - year, and the pulp supply is relatively loose [7] - Pulp demand is still average, and downstream paper mills continue to implement cost - reduction and efficiency - improvement strategies [7] - It's advisable to wait and see [7] Logs - The futures price fluctuated, and the spot price was stable [8] - The arrival volume before the holiday increased, and the price of New Zealand radiata pine in October was raised [8] - The domestic spot price was weak, and traders' import willingness decreased [8] - The overseas price was still high, and the domestic spot price was difficult to improve, increasing traders' pressure [8] - The domestic supply is expected to remain low in the short term [8] - The port inventory reduction before the holiday was significant, and the peak - season demand emerged, with smooth inventory reduction [8] - The original inventory was low, and inventory pressure was relatively small [8] - A bullish strategy is maintained [8]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Urea: ★★★ (more bullish) [1] - Methanol: ★★★ (more bullish) [1] - Pure Benzene: ★★★ (more bullish) [1] - Styrene: ★★★ (more bullish) [1] - Propylene: ★★★ (more bullish) [1] - Plastics: ★★★ (more bullish) [1] - PVC: ★★★ (more bullish) [1] - Caustic Soda: ★★★ (more bullish) [1] - PX: ★★★ (more bullish) [1] - PTA: ★★★ (more bullish) [1] - Ethylene Glycol: ★★★ (more bullish) [1] - Short - fiber: ★★★ (more bullish) [1] - Glass: ★★★ (more bullish) [1] - Soda Ash: ★★★ (more bullish) [1] - Bottle Chip: ★★★ (more bullish) [1] 2. Core Views - The chemical market shows complex trends with different product performances. Some products are affected by factors such as device maintenance, demand changes, and supply - demand imbalances [2][3][5]. - There are differences in the performance of the spot and futures markets, and the basis has changed in some products [2][3]. - The supply - demand relationship is a key factor affecting prices, with some products facing supply - demand contradictions [2][3][5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Olefins - Polyolefins - Propylene prices continued to rise due to early - started planned maintenance of a device in Dongying during the National Day holiday and the gradual recovery of some downstream demand. However, the futures price fell on the first trading day after the holiday, resulting in a divergence between the spot and futures markets and an enlarged basis [2]. - Polyolefins faced a situation of weak peak - season demand, mainly with rigid procurement. The large - scale release of new production capacity led to a significant increase in domestic output, resulting in prominent supply - demand contradictions. There was inventory accumulation during the holidays, and there was obvious pressure to reduce inventory after the holidays, causing price pressure [2] Pure Benzene - Styrene - During the National Day, the oil price dropped, and the pure benzene futures once fell below 5700 yuan/ton in the morning session and then rebounded with the oil price in the afternoon. The spot price in East China was weak, the shipment in Shandong was dull, and Sinopec's listed price remained stable. The device operation rate continued to rise, and the port inventory decreased. However, high imports and expected demand decline continued to drag down the market [3]. - The main contract of styrene futures closed slightly lower, with the overall center of gravity moving down along the 5 - day moving average. The oil price during the holiday was basically the same as before the holiday, having limited impact on the cost of styrene. The demand was weak during the peak season, and the supply increased significantly due to the expansion of production capacity. The inventory of styrene has been significantly higher year - on - year since this year and has shown a trend of oscillating inventory accumulation after June, suppressing the price [3] Polyester - During the holiday, the overseas oil price dropped, causing the prices of PX and PTA to weaken in the morning and then recover with the rebound of the oil price in the afternoon. The operation rate of PX continued to increase. Hengli Dalian's PTA carried out maintenance, and some East China devices reduced their loads due to reasons. In the short term, PX was under pressure, and the PTA link repaired its profit. However, in the future, the PX of Wushi Petrochemical plans to carry out maintenance, and the polyester load is expected to remain stable. The near - term supply - demand pattern of upstream raw materials is okay, and attention should be paid to terminal orders and raw material restocking. In mid - to late October, the downstream demand is expected to gradually weaken, and the supply - demand situation will still be under pressure in the long - term [5]. - The domestic operation rate of ethylene glycol increased significantly, and the port inventory accumulated significantly during the holiday, with a weak fundamental situation. The main futures price once approached the 4100 yuan/ton mark. In the medium - term, with the mass production of new devices and the weakening of future demand, the supply - demand situation will gradually weaken in the fourth quarter, and the 1 - 5 spread is under downward pressure [5]. - The new production capacity of short - fiber is limited, and the operation rate is at a high level. The terminal weaving and dyeing industries increased their operation rates, and the recovery of peak - season demand boosted the short - fiber industry. It is recommended to be long in the short - term, and attention should be paid to downstream orders and short - fiber inventory [5]. - The operation rate of bottle chips increased, but after the long holiday, with the cooling weather, the demand is expected to weaken. Overcapacity is a long - term pressure, and the processing margin is under continuous pressure [5] Coal Chemical Industry - The methanol futures price dropped significantly. During the holiday, the import volume remained high, and the port inventory continued to accumulate. The capacity utilization rate of domestic methanol devices increased. Before the holiday, inland olefin enterprises carried out centralized external procurement, and enterprises had sufficient pending orders, but the order execution was slowed down due to logistics restrictions, and the inventory of production enterprises increased slightly. Imports are expected to remain sufficient, and the port is expected to continue to accumulate inventory. The near - term situation is weak, while the far - month outlook is relatively strong. Attention should be paid to factors such as macro - sentiment and overseas device changes [6]. - During the National Day holiday, urea production enterprises significantly accumulated inventory, with high supply and great pressure on enterprise shipments. Affected by factors such as weather and logistics, the downstream demand was insufficient. Export orders were being shipped, and the port inventory decreased. Although India issued a new round of urea tenders, planning to import 2 million tons, the export window period may have ended, and the short - term boost to the market is limited. The pattern of loose domestic supply - demand of urea is difficult to change, and attention should be paid to possible policy adjustments and their impact on market sentiment [6] Chlor - Alkali Industry - The main contract of PVC dropped. During the holiday, the downstream demand weakened, the supply was at a high level, and the inventory increased significantly. After the end of maintenance and the release of new production capacity, the supply pressure was high. The downstream's intention to stock up was not high, and the industry continued the inventory - accumulation mode. The chlor - alkali integration still had profits, and the cost support was not obvious. PVC may show a weak - oscillating trend [7]. - The caustic soda futures dropped significantly. There was still the phenomenon of vehicle detention by downstream buyers, and the purchase price may be further reduced, with the inventory increasing compared with the previous period. There are small - scale maintenance plans for caustic soda in North China and East China in October, and the supply is still under high - pressure operation due to remaining profits. The liquid - caustic soda inventory of alumina plants in Shanxi and Henan is high, and the downstream profit is shrinking, with resistance to high prices. The weak - reality pattern continues, but the strong expectation of possible restocking demand before the future downstream alumina production cannot be falsified. It is recommended to wait and see [7] Soda Ash - Glass - The price of soda ash futures was weakly operating. Before the holiday, the inventory was mainly reduced, and it increased after the holiday. The rigid demand for heavy soda was stable. The production capacity of float glass and photovoltaic glass has been stable recently. The inventory of the photovoltaic industry has changed from decreasing to increasing, and it is expected that the ignition speed will slow down in the future, with limited incremental rigid demand for heavy soda. There are few maintenance plans in October, and the industry currently has little operating pressure, with high - pressure supply. The long - term pattern of supply - demand surplus remains unchanged, and opportunities to short at high prices should be sought, but caution should be exercised near the cost [8]. - The price of glass futures fluctuated narrowly. During the holiday, downstream enterprises had holidays, and the production and sales were insufficient, with seasonal inventory accumulation in the industry. Some regions raised their quoted prices. The daily melting volume was oscillating at a relatively high level. The processing orders improved but were still insufficient on a month - on - month basis, and some engineering orders increased. The situation of whether Shahe will centrally use Zhengkang's deep - processed gas should be continuously tracked. If the production - capacity reduction does not actually occur, the market may return to weak - reality trading, but with the current low valuation, the decline is expected to be limited. A low - buying strategy near the cost can be considered in the future [8]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - Gold: ★☆★, indicating a bullish bias but limited trading opportunities on the market [1] - Silver: ★☆★, suggesting a bullish bias but limited trading opportunities on the market [1] 2) Core Viewpoints - During the National Day holiday, precious metals maintained their strength. The international gold price broke through the $4,000 mark, and domestic prices rose following the international trend today. The US government shutdown and suspension of data release such as non - farm payrolls have sustained market risk - aversion sentiment. The long - term upward logic of gold remains unchanged. However, after Trump announced that Israel and Hamas had signed the first - phase peace agreement today, after reaching the short - term target of $4,000, one should be wary of profit - taking by funds and remain cautious at high levels. Hold previous long positions and avoid chasing the market [1]. - The Fed's September meeting minutes showed that employment growth has slowed, the unemployment rate has risen slightly, and the labor market has shown signs of weakness. Inflation remains slightly above the 2% target. Almost all Fed members agreed to lower the federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points to between 4% and 4.25% [2]. 3) Other Summaries - Trump announced that Israel and Hamas had signed the first - phase of the peace plan. He previously said he might go to the Middle East this weekend and consider going to Gaza [1]. - In the recent sixth vote, the US Senate rejected the bipartisan appropriation bill again, and the federal government continued to shut down [1].

Report Investment Ratings - Crude oil: ★★★ (indicating a clearer long - trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity) [1] - Fuel oil: Not clearly defined in a comparable way - Low - sulfur fuel oil: Not clearly defined in a comparable way - Asphalt: ★★★ (indicating a clearer long - trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity) [1] - Liquefied petroleum gas: ★☆☆ (indicating a bullish/bearish bias with a driving force for price movement but poor operability on the trading floor) [1] Core Views - The overall international oil prices declined around the National Day holiday. The subsequent market will focus on the pressure of loose supply - demand, and the strategy of combining high - level short positions in SC with out - of - the - money call options should be opportunistically and temporarily closed for profit [2] - The fuel oil market will follow the trend of crude oil. High - sulfur fuel oil will be affected by geopolitical factors, while low - sulfur fuel oil will face continuous pressure from loose supply - demand [3] - The supply - demand of asphalt remains in a tight balance. With the weakening of the cost side, asphalt is expected to be under limited pressure and its crack spread has upward potential [4] - The short - term LPG is under pressure due to the lack of positive support, and attention should be paid to the improvement of combustion demand after the temperature drops [5] Summary by Directory Crude Oil - International oil prices rebounded after OPEC+ did not significantly increase production as expected. The SC11 contract dropped 1.98% on the first trading day after the holiday. US crude oil inventories increased by 3715000 barrels last week, but the relatively strong refined oil apparent demand in the past four weeks supported the oil price [2] Fuel Oil & Low - sulfur Fuel Oil - The fuel oil market opened lower following the cost side. High - sulfur fuel oil is relatively resistant to decline due to geopolitical risks, but may face supply pressure in the medium term. Low - sulfur fuel oil has sufficient overseas supply, weak demand, and the pressure of loose supply - demand remains unchanged [3] Asphalt - The overall commercial inventory decreased compared with that before the holiday. The planned production in October increased by 350000 tons year - on - year and decreased by 400 tons month - on - month. The supply - demand is in a tight balance, and the asphalt is expected to be under limited pressure [4] Liquefied Petroleum Gas - The price of Saudi CP in October was much lower than expected, and the import cost decreased. The market sentiment is cautious, and the short - term LPG is under pressure [5]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: ★★★, indicating a clearer long - term trend with a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1] - Fuel oil: Not clearly defined in a comparable way, represented by "ななな" - Low - sulfur fuel oil: Not clearly defined in a comparable way, represented by "文文文" - Asphalt: ★★★, indicating a clearer long - term trend with a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1] - Liquefied petroleum gas: ★☆☆, suggesting a bullish/bearish bias with a driving force for price movement but limited operability on the trading floor [1] Report's Core View - Overall, the energy market is affected by multiple factors including supply - demand dynamics, geopolitical risks, and inventory changes. Different energy products have their own unique supply - demand situations and price trends [2][3][4][5] Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - International oil prices declined around the National Day holiday and are in a rebound - repair period after OPEC+ did not significantly increase production as expected. The SC11 contract dropped 1.98% on the first trading day after the holiday. US crude oil inventories increased by 3715000 barrels last week, but the 1.7% year - on - year increase in refined oil apparent demand in the past four weeks supported oil prices. Supply - demand loosening pressure is the main trading theme, and the previously proposed strategy of combining short positions in SC at high levels with out - of - the - money call options should be opportunistically and temporarily closed for profit [2] Fuel Oil & Low - sulfur Fuel Oil - During the National Day holiday, overseas crude - related products were weak, and the fuel oil market opened lower following the cost side. High - sulfur fuel oil was relatively resistant to decline due to geopolitical risks, as Russian refineries were frequently attacked by drones and seasonal maintenance was approaching, which may restrict supply. In the medium term, supply pressure may emerge under OPEC+ continuous production increase. Low - sulfur fuel oil has sufficient overseas supply, with continuous inflow of Western arbitrage goods. The RFCC unit of a Nigerian refinery is not restored, and there are continuous tenders. The demand for marine fuel bunkering is also sluggish, and the supply - demand loosening pressure remains unchanged [3] Asphalt - The latest inventory shows a slight increase in refinery inventory and a significant decline in social inventory, with overall commercial inventory decreasing compared to before the holiday. The national production plan for October increased by 350000 tons year - on - year and decreased slightly by 4000 tons month - on - month. The market has priced in the supply pressure in October. There is still construction rush demand in the north, while demand in the south is temporarily suppressed by typhoon and rainfall. Supply - demand remains in a tight balance, and asphalt is expected to be less pressured under the weakening cost side, with upward elasticity in cracking [4] Liquefied Petroleum Gas - Overseas crude oil prices dropped during the holiday, and the Saudi CP price in October was much lower than expected, with propane down by 25 dollars per ton and butane down by 15 dollars per ton. Affected by the decline in import costs, market sentiment is cautious. Downstream enterprises' procurement after the holiday is mainly for刚需. Attention should be paid to the improvement degree of combustion demand after the temperature drops. In the short term, LPG is under pressure due to lack of positive support [5]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Thread steel: ★★★, indicating a clearer long - trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1] - Hot - rolled coil: ★★★, indicating a clearer long - trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1] - Iron ore: ★★★, indicating a clearer long - trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1] - Coke: ★★★, indicating a clearer long - trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1] - Coking coal: ★★★, indicating a clearer long - trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1] - Silicomanganese: ★★★, indicating a clearer long - trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1] - Ferrosilicon: ★★★, indicating a clearer long - trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1] Core Viewpoints - The steel market has slightly rebounded. The overall domestic demand is still weak, and the export remains high. The negative feedback expectation of the industrial chain still ferments repeatedly. Attention should be paid to the strength of post - holiday demand recovery [1] - The iron ore market is expected to fluctuate at a high level in the short term, with concerns about supply disruptions increasing, and the future pressure of steel mills to cut production gradually rising [2] - The coke price has risen, with sufficient carbon supply and the price support at the previous low being relatively solid [3] - The coking coal price has rebounded under the influence of market sentiment regarding production safety inspections, with sufficient carbon supply and relatively solid support near the previous low [5] - The silicomanganese price has bottomed out and rebounded, with high iron - water production and good market demand. It may have a certain rebound market driven by coking coal [6] - The ferrosilicon price has bottomed out and rebounded, with overall good demand and may have a certain rebound market driven by coking coal [7] Summary by Categories Steel - Today's steel futures rebounded. During the long holiday, the apparent demand for thread steel dropped significantly, the output decreased slightly, and the inventory increased substantially. The demand for hot - rolled coil also declined, with a slight decrease in output and a large increase in inventory. The iron - water output remained high, but the downstream's ability to absorb was insufficient. The negative feedback expectation of the industrial chain still fermented repeatedly as steel mills' profits declined. The overall domestic demand was still weak, and steel exports remained high, with the EU's additional tariffs causing some disturbances. After continuous adjustments, the market stabilized slightly, and the market sentiment was cautious [1] Iron Ore - Today's iron ore futures rose. The global iron ore shipment decreased month - on - month, with a large decline in non - mainstream countries, while the domestic arrival volume increased. Affected by the Ximangzhu iron ore accident and BHP agreements, concerns about supply disruptions increased. In the short term, iron - water demand was resilient, and steel mills had certain replenishment needs around the National Day. However, as steel mills' profits shrank and domestic demand remained relatively low, the future pressure to cut production gradually increased. There were still certain policy expectations in the market, but the uncertainty of foreign trade frictions also remained. It is expected that iron ore will mainly fluctuate at a high level in the short term [2] Coke - The coke price rose during the day. The first round of price increases in the coking industry was fully implemented, and there was no news of a second - round increase. The coking profit was average, the daily output decreased slightly, and the coke inventory continued to increase. Traders' purchasing willingness decreased. Overall, the carbon supply was sufficient, and the price support at the previous low was relatively solid [3] Coking Coal - The coking coal price rose during the day. 22 central safety production inspection teams will conduct annual inspections in 31 provinces, municipalities, and autonomous regions, and the market expected stricter coking coal production safety. The output of coking coal mines increased slightly, and the terminal inventory rose. The total coking coal inventory increased significantly month - on - month, the production - end inventory decreased slightly, and the suspended coking coal mines continued to resume production. However, the possibility of further large - scale capacity release was low under the background of over - production inspections. Overall, the carbon supply was sufficient, and the support near the previous low was relatively solid. The coking coal futures price was slightly at a discount to Mongolian coal, and the price rebounded under the influence of market sentiment regarding production safety inspections [5] Silicomanganese - The silicomanganese price bottomed out and rebounded during the day. The iron - water production remained high on the demand side. The weekly output of silicomanganese continued to increase, reaching a relatively high level, and the inventory did not increase. The market's spot and futures demand was good. The forward quotation of manganese ore increased slightly month - on - month, and the spot ore was boosted by the futures market. Although the manganese ore inventory increased, the inventory - building speed was slow. Driven by coking coal, it may have a certain rebound market [6] Ferrosilicon - The ferrosilicon price bottomed out and rebounded during the day. The iron - water production remained high on the demand side. The export demand remained at about 30,000 tons, with a marginal impact being small. The output of magnesium metal decreased slightly month - on - month, and the secondary demand declined marginally. The overall demand was okay. The ferrosilicon supply returned to a high level, the market's spot and futures demand was good, and the on - balance - sheet inventory decreased slightly. Driven by coking coal, it may have a certain rebound market [7]