轴把:降波后的再择向 点有成金 广期所铂、锂期货12月底开始降波调整,波动区间日窄,整体呈三角形整理,铂价于三角形末 端收敛至615元/克附近：贺价则收敛至480元/克左右。从交易层面看，这2个价格可以视为钩、钟 期货迈过上市初期的高波动之后,多空双方理性博弈的结果,这个结果基本符合我们在年报中对于 ์ 铂 钟 种 和 9%; 钟多个合约涨幅超3%。盘面降波后，铂密方向再次明朗。 基本面预期未见明显变化,铂、肥上行驱动主要来自宏观。虽然美不再对关键资源加征关税, 缓解了铂、妃的结构性矛盾。但在美国抓捕马杜罗之后，特朗普再提武力否并格陵兰岛，加速美、 欧离心,欧洲地售美债进行抵抗的背景下，美元指数加速走弱，更长远的视角看，市场对于美国国 运下行的押注力度仍有提升空间,"钱"和"货"博弈的天平继续向"货"端倾斜,以金银为代表 的贵金属强势上行,资金自然会给铂、密这两个资源瑞高脆性的贡金属品种更多溢价空间。 安如泰山 信守承诺 另外,就钩、把自身基本面预期来看,2026年铂基本面预期强于兜。供应端看,虽然铂妃供应 结构存在较大差异，但二者的供应犹动都相对有限:1）铂、把价格高企,矿山端生产积极性高; 2）俄罗斯产出 ...

Group 1: Energy and Metals Crude Oil - Night session oil prices declined due to geopolitical easing and EIA data showing inventory accumulation [1] Precious Metals - Overnight precious metals were strong as Trump's statements disrupted global order [2] Copper - Overnight LME copper oscillated and rose at the end, with inventory increases and a suggestion of short - selling [3] Aluminum - Overnight SHFE aluminum continued to oscillate, with inventory changes and a support level at 23,800 yuan [4] Cast Aluminum Alloy - It followed SHFE aluminum, with low market activity and cost increases in some areas [5] Alumina - Domestic alumina had over - supply, with cost drops and a weak outlook [6] Zinc - High overseas gas prices supported zinc prices, but weak domestic demand limited the rebound [7] Nickel and Stainless Steel - SHFE nickel oscillated at a high level, while stainless steel faced challenges in high - level transactions [9] Tin - Overnight tin prices oscillated at a high level, affected by precious metals and with inventory changes [9] Lithium Carbonate - It oscillated at a high level, with weak downstream acceptance and slow inventory reduction [10] Industrial Silicon - Futures were driven by supply contraction expectations, but demand was weakening [11] Polysilicon - It showed a strong trend, with potential price increases due to supply cuts and downstream demand [12] Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - Low - sulfur followed crude oil down, while high - sulfur remained strong, affected by geopolitical factors [20] Asphalt - Cost supported asphalt, but weak demand led to an expected oscillatory - strong trend [21] Group 2: Ferrous Metals and Related Products Rebar & Hot - Rolled Coil - Night session steel prices rebounded slightly, with inventory and demand changes [13] Iron Ore - The overnight iron ore market oscillated, with supply and demand factors in balance [14] Coke and Coking Coal - Both showed slight rebounds, with carbon supply abundance and downstream pressure [15][16] Manganese Silicon - Prices rebounded slightly, with manganese ore price increases and demand changes [17] Silicon Iron - Prices rebounded, affected by policies and with changes in supply and demand [18] Group 3: Chemicals Urea - Futures prices were oscillating strongly, with production and demand changes [22] Methanol - The market was oscillating, with inventory and demand factors [23] Pure Benzene - Night session prices rose significantly, with supply reduction and demand increase [24] Styrene - Supply was tight, with good sales and export support [25] Polypropylene, Plastic, and Propylene - Propylene supply was tight, while polyethylene and polypropylene had different supply - demand situations [26] PVC and Caustic Soda - PVC was oscillating strongly, and caustic soda had high - inventory and high - production issues [27] PX and PTA - They continued to rise, with different outlooks in the short and medium - term [28] Ethylene Glycol - Production and demand decreased, with a long - term pressure and short - term improvement expectation [29] Short Fibre and Bottle Chip - Short - fibre prices followed raw materials, and bottle - chip had capacity pressure [30] Group 4: Building Materials Glass - Inventory might increase, with low valuation and potential supply changes [31] 20 - Rubber, Natural Rubber, and Butadiene Rubber - Rubber supply decreased, inventory increased, and the strategy was to go long on rebounds [32] Soda Ash - It faced supply - demand surplus, with a short - term follow - macro and long - term short - selling strategy [33] Group 5: Agricultural Products Soybeans and Soybean Meal - US soybeans were affected by policies and South American harvests [34] Soybean Oil and Palm Oil - US policies were positive, and Malaysian palm oil had improved fundamentals [35] Rapeseed and Rapeseed Oil - They might be slightly boosted, but import policies limited the upside [36] Soybean No.1 - Prices rebounded, with attention on policy and spot transactions [37] Corn - Supply was relatively sufficient, and futures were expected to oscillate [38] Live Pigs - Futures rebounded slightly, and prices were expected to have a low point next year [39] Eggs - Futures rose significantly, and the long - term strategy was to buy on dips [40] Cotton - Zhengzhou cotton was oscillating, with inventory and demand factors [41] Sugar - International and domestic production differences affected prices, with short - term pressure [42] Apples - Futures were oscillating, with attention on demand and inventory removal [43] Wood - Prices were low, supported by low inventory [44] Pulp - Futures rose slightly, with inventory and demand factors, and a light - long strategy [45] Group 6: Financial Products Stock Index - A - share indexes rose, with different performances in futures contracts, and a complex outlook [46] Treasury Bonds - Futures slightly declined, and a short - short - bond strategy was suggested [47] Group 7: Shipping Container Shipping Index (European Line) - Spot prices were expected to decline, and futures were likely to oscillate [19]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the given content. 2. Core Views of the Report - Short - term geopolitical tensions and a weakening dollar support oil prices, but inventory accumulation limits the upside potential [2]. - Precious metals are likely to remain strong in the medium - term, with short - term adjustments to fix overbought technical indicators [3]. - Most commodities are expected to show a pattern of short - term fluctuations, and investors need to pay attention to supply - demand changes, geopolitical risks, and policy impacts [2][3][4]. 3. Summary by Commodity Categories Energy - **Crude Oil**: The US strengthens military deployment in the Middle East. Kazakhstan's oil production may be suspended. The IEA raises the 2026 demand forecast, with reduced first - quarter supply surplus. Venezuelan exports are slow, and oil price rebound is limited [2]. - **Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: Geopolitical factors are dominant. High - sulfur fuel oil is supported in the short - term but pressured in the medium - term. Low - sulfur fuel oil has winter demand support but faces supply pressure [22]. - **Asphalt**: Military actions in the Middle East and oil price rebounds drive asphalt up. There are concerns about future raw material shortages [23]. Metals - **Precious Metals**: Overnight, precious metals fluctuated downward. The medium - term strength remains unchanged, with short - term adjustments [3]. - **Base Metals** - **Copper**: Overnight, LME copper fell. The US market premium cooled, and a short - position strategy is recommended in the domestic market [4]. - **Aluminum**: Overnight, Shanghai aluminum continued to fluctuate. The 23,800 - yuan level is supported, and it's advisable to wait and see [5]. - **Zinc**: Supply - side pressure is limited, but high prices have a negative impact on consumption. Zinc is expected to fluctuate at a high level in the short - term, with a medium - term short - selling strategy [8]. - **Lead**: The lead price fluctuates between 17,000 - 17,800 yuan/ton. Low - buying is recommended [9]. - **Nickel and Stainless Steel**: Shanghai nickel fluctuates at a high level. The negative feedback risk of stainless - steel consumption is increasing, but the short - term is still dominated by policy sentiment, and a long - position strategy is maintained [10]. - **Tin**: Overnight, tin prices opened high and closed low. A strategy of selling call options at a high level is recommended [11]. - **Carbonate Lithium**: It has risen sharply, but the downstream acceptance is low. The price is in a high - level shock, and risk prevention is needed [12]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The futures fluctuate. The supply reduction expectation is controversial, and the demand has no clear increase. The price is expected to fluctuate, and the implementation of major factory production cuts should be tracked [13]. - **Polysilicon**: The market is light. Production is expected to decline, and the futures fluctuate around 50,000 yuan/ton. Wait for the exchange's guidance [14]. - **Iron and Steel** - **Rebar & Hot - Rolled Coil**: Night - session steel prices rebounded slightly. Rebar demand is weak, and hot - rolled coil de - stocking is slow. The market will fluctuate in a range [15]. - **Iron Ore**: The global shipping volume decreased, and the domestic arrival volume declined. The port inventory is increasing. It is expected to fluctuate in the short - term [16]. - **Coke**: The price rebounded slightly. The supply is abundant, and it is likely to follow a weak - shock pattern [17]. - **Coking Coal**: The price rebounded slightly. The supply is abundant, and it is likely to follow a weak - shock pattern [18]. - **Manganese Silicon**: The price fluctuated downward. Manganese ore prices rose, and iron - water production decreased. A short - selling strategy on rebounds is recommended [19]. - **Silicon Iron**: The price fluctuated downward. Affected by policies, the demand is resilient, and a short - selling strategy on rebounds is recommended [20]. Chemicals - **Urea**: The spot price is weakly stable. Production increases, demand starts, and the long - term decline space is limited [24]. - **Methanol**: The futures fluctuate strongly. Demand decreases, inventory accumulates, but there is support from reduced imports in Q1, and it is expected to be in a stalemate [25]. - **Pure Benzene**: The night - session price rose. Supply decreases, demand increases, and the short - term trend is strong [26]. - **Styrene**: Some domestic producers' sales are good, and the supply is tight, providing support [27]. - **Polypropylene, Plastic & Propylene**: Supply and demand are both weak. Some markets have supply shortages, but downstream demand is weak [28]. - **PVC & Caustic Soda**: PVC is weak, and there is a possibility of capacity reduction. Caustic soda is also weak with high inventory [29]. - **PX & PTA**: There is pressure in the short - term, but there are opportunities for PX processing spreads and month - spreads in Q2 [30]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: Supply is expected to increase domestically and decrease overseas. There is a short - term inventory accumulation expectation, but improvement is expected in Q2 [31]. - **Short - Fiber & Bottle Chips**: Short - fiber follows cost fluctuations, and bottle - chip processing spreads have improved, but long - term capacity pressure exists [32]. Agricultural Products - **Grains and Oils** - **Soybeans & Soybean Meal**: US soybeans fluctuate strongly at the bottom. South American weather is improving, and the focus is on export and weather [36]. - **Soybean Oil & Palm Oil**: US bio - fuel policies are positive for soybean oil. Indonesian palm oil policies are uncertain, and Malaysian palm oil supply - demand improves marginally [37]. - **Rapeseed Meal & Rapeseed Oil**: The external market rises, the domestic supply is tight in the short - term, and the price is expected to fluctuate at the bottom [38]. - **Soybean No.1**: The price of domestic soybeans fell. Pay attention to policy and spot guidance [39]. - **Corn**: The supply is relatively sufficient. The futures are expected to fluctuate, and pay attention to sales progress and auctions [40]. - **Livestock and Poultry** - **Pigs**: The futures fell for three consecutive days. The short - term rebound may end, and there may be a low point next year [41]. - **Eggs**: The futures fluctuate. The long - term fundamental improvement is expected, and a long - position strategy is recommended on dips [42]. - **Other Agricultural Products** - **Cotton**: US cotton fell, and Zheng cotton fluctuates at a high level. The demand is stable, and the supply reduction policy has uncertainties [43]. - **Sugar**: International production varies, and domestic production progress is different. The short - term price faces pressure [44]. - **Apples**: The futures price回调. The focus is on demand, and the de - stocking speed may be affected [45]. - **Timber**: The price is low. Low inventory provides support, and it's advisable to wait and see [46]. - **Paper Pulp**: The futures fell slightly. The demand is weak, inventory accumulates, and it's advisable to wait and see [47]. Others - **Container Shipping Index (European Line)**: Spot prices are expected to decline, and near - term contracts have limited downside. The market will enter an observation period before the Spring Festival, and the focus of far - term contracts is the resumption of navigation [21]. Financial Instruments - **Stock Index**: A - share indexes rose, and the short - term trend is expected to be upward. The medium - term trend depends on the transition to profit - driven [48]. - **Treasury Bonds**: 30 - year treasury bond futures rose. Pay attention to potential curve - flattening opportunities and market warming signals [49].

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Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: ☆☆☆ (interpreted as a more clear upward trend with appropriate current investment opportunities according to the star - rating description) [1] - Fuel oil: ☆☆☆ [1] - Low - sulfur fuel oil: ☆☆☆ [1] - Asphalt: ☆☆☆ [1] Core Viewpoints - The crude oil market is mainly characterized by a bearish pattern dominated by loose supply and demand. The geopolitical situation is controllable, and the market is in a stage of relatively loose supply and inventory accumulation, with limited short - term upward space for oil prices [2]. - Geopolitical factors dominate the fuel oil market. The short - term geopolitical fluctuations support high - sulfur fuel oil, but the medium - term supply is expected to be loose. For low - sulfur fuel oil, winter demand provides support, but the supply pressure is emerging, and the strengthening of gasoline and diesel cracking may provide bottom - line support [3]. - The asphalt trend follows crude oil but with a relatively limited amplitude. After the current disk has priced in the expected cost increase due to the tightening of Venezuelan crude oil shipments to China, the upward driving force is limited, and it is in a range - bound pattern [4]. Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - The Trump administration postponed military actions against Iran, and the geopolitical situation is temporarily tense but controllable, making it difficult to drive oil prices to rise continuously [2]. - The crude oil market is in a stage of relatively loose supply and inventory accumulation, causing part of the geopolitical risk premium previously included in oil prices to be reversed [2]. - Unless there is a significant interruption in oil supply due to conflicts, the short - term upward space for oil prices is expected to be limited, and the market is dominated by a bearish pattern of loose supply and demand [2]. Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil Fuel Oil - Geopolitical factors are the main drivers of market fluctuations. Although the US - Iran situation is postponed, the risk remains. If Iran's exports are blocked, it will tighten regional supply and support fuel oil prices to be relatively resistant to decline, with a slight strengthening of the crack spread [3]. - Short - term geopolitical fluctuations will support high - sulfur fuel oil, but in the medium term, the supply will be loose due to the abundant raw materials and high inventory, showing an overall positive spread pattern [3]. Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - Winter demand provides some support, but the supply from overseas refineries is rising. About 130,000 tons of low - sulfur fuel oil from the Kuwait Azour refinery is expected to arrive in Singapore in late January, bringing supply pressure and capping the upside [3]. - The strengthening of gasoline and diesel cracking may provide bottom - line support for low - sulfur fuel oil [3]. Asphalt - Oil prices have fluctuated sharply recently due to repeated geopolitical news, and the asphalt trend follows crude oil but with a relatively limited amplitude [4]. - Kpler data predicts that the arrivals in January will still be sufficient. After the current disk has priced in the expected cost increase due to the tightening of Venezuelan crude oil shipments to China, the upward driving force is limited, and it is in a range - bound pattern [4]. - Attention should be paid to the arrival situation of Venezuelan crude oil in the future [4].

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★格陵兰岛问题——①加拿大军方模拟美国"军事入侵"场景。②特朗普威胁对法国葡萄酒和香槟征收200% 关税。③美国计划削减约200个涉北约机构职位。④特朗普P图将格陵兰岛、加拿大和委内瑞拉纳入美国版 图。 ★特朗普重返白宫一周年记者会部分内容：列举365硕成就、借妻子之口自比巴菲特、"收回"巴拿马运河 在考虑范围内、不会前往巴黎参加G7会议、考虑让马查多以"某种方式"参与委内瑞拉事务、明年美国将不 会出现贸易逆差、联合国应继续存在但"和平委员会"可能取而代之。 ★美最高法院未就特朗普全球关税合法性挑战作出裁决，下个裁决窗口在一个月后。 ★ADP周度就业报告:截至2025年12月27日的四周里,私人部门庭主平均每周增加8000个就业岗位。 本报告版权属于国投期货有限公司 不可作为投资依据,转载请注明出处 | 国长期货 | | | 责金属日报 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 操作评级 | | 2026年01月21日 | | 黄金 | 白银 ★☆★ | ★☆★ | 刘冬博 高级分析师 | | 销 | ★☆☆ 紀 | ★☆☆ | F3062795 Z0015311 | | | | | 吴 ...

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