| Millio | 国技期货 | 贵金属日报 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 操作评级 | 2025年07月31日 | | 黄金 | ☆☆☆ | 刘冬博 高级分析师 | | 白银 | ☆☆☆ | F3062795 Z0015311 | | | | 吴江 高级分析师 | | | | F3085524 Z0016394 | | | | 010-58747784 gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 隔夜美国公布二季度GDP年化季率3%反弹超预期，ADP就业增加10.4万人同样超预期和前值，数据发布后美元 反弹，贵金属承压回落。美联储会议如期维持利率不变,美联储内部分歧加大,鲍威尔讲话重申降息将依赖 数据。近期地续风险平稳,关税谈判逐渐明朗,经济衰退风险下降,避险情绪降温压制贵金属表现,震荡调 整或将延续。今晚关注美国周度初请失业金人数和PCE数据。 ★美联储议息 -- ①维持利率在4.25%-4.50%不变,理事沃勒、鲍曼投下反对票并主张降息。②鲍威尔避免 就9月降息给出指引,称当前货币政策立场处于有利位置,强调依赖数据、通胀的目标比就业遥远,合理推 测是关税对通胀的 ...

| | 操作评级 | 2025年07月31日 | | --- | --- | --- | | 铜 | ★☆☆ | 肖静 首席分析师 | | 铝 | ななな | F3047773 Z0014087 | | 氧化铝 | ★☆☆ | 刘冬博 高级分析师 | | 铸造铝合金 文文文 | | F3062795 Z0015311 | | 锌 | ★☆☆ | 吴江 高级分析师 | | 错 | ななな | F3085524 Z0016394 | | 镇及不锈钢 ☆☆☆ | | 张秀睿 中级分析师 | | 锡 | ★☆☆ | F03099436 Z0021022 | | 碳酸锂 | ★☆☆ | 孙芳芳 中级分析师 | | 工业硅 | ☆☆☆ | F03111330 Z0018905 | | 多晶硅 | ☆☆☆ | 010-58747784 | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 【铜】 周四铜价下滑，直接跌破MA60日均线。隔夜特朗普将精铜进口加征关税排除在外,主要针对铜加工材. 令实货 进口套利预期反转。空单持有。 (铝&氧化铝&铝合金) 今日沪铝小幅回调，华东现货贴水20元。今日铝锭社 ...

| 11/11/2 >国技期货 | | 能源日报 | | --- | --- | --- | | 操作评级 | | 2025年07月31日 | | 原油 | ★☆☆ | 高明宇 首席分析师 | | 燃料油 | ★☆☆ | F0302201 Z0012038 | | 低硫燃料油 ★☆☆ | | 李祖智 中级分析师 | | 沥青 | ★☆☆ | F3063857 Z0016599 | | 液化石油气 ☆☆☆ | | 王盈敏 中级分析师 | | | | F3066912 Z0016785 | | | | 010-58747784 gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 【原油】 隔夜国际油价继续上行,布伦特09合约涨0.98%。上周美国EIA原油库存超预期增加769.8万桶,但市场关注焦 点仍是近期再度升温的制裁油风险。特朗普将对俄制裁的最后期限提前至8月8日,并决定对印度加征25%对等 关税, 俄油主要购买方存在避险寻找替代油种的驱动, 昨日美国亦发布最新一轮对伊朗制裁。此前我们已提示8 月末、9月初伊核、俄乌相关的地缘博弈窗口期已被前置。地缘风险短期对油价构成支撑,投资者仍可关注原油 虚值 ...

苯乙烯期货主力合约日内继续窄幅波动。成本瑞油价支撑走强,但供需面延续疲弱,供应端维持高开工,港口 库存继续积累,供应压力不减。下游需求基本平稳,对价格难以起到提振作用。 本报告版权属于国投期货有限公司 不可作为投资依据，转载请注明出处 | 110. | >国技期负 | | | | 化工日报 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 操作评级 | | 2025年07月31日 | | | 影丙烯 | なな女 | 塑料 | な女女 | 庞春艳 首席分析师 | | | 纯苯 | 女女女 | 苯乙烯 | な女女 | F3011557 Z0011355 | | | PX | ななな | PTA | ☆☆☆ | | | | 瓶片 | なな女 | 甲醇 | ☆☆☆ | F3003295 Z0011425 | | | 尿素 | | | | | | | | | | | F03125010 | | | | | | | 010-58747784 | | | | | | | 牛卉 高级分析师 | | | 乙二醇 | ★☆☆ | 短纤 | ☆☆☆ | | | | | 女女女 | PV ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core View of the Report The Fed maintained the federal funds rate target range at 4.25% - 4.50% as expected. The meeting's signals were relatively neutral compared to pre - meeting expectations, and the implied probability of a September rate cut decreased. Fed Chair Powell did not clearly guide on the future rate - cut path, and the threshold for future rate cuts remains uncertain. Market rate - cut expectations retreated after the meeting, causing fluctuations in major assets [1][6][7]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Pre - meeting Concerns: Is it the Prelude to a September Rate Cut? - Since the last meeting, US economic data has shown resilience, with some indicators having inflection signs. In June, core retail sales increased by 0.5% month - on - month, core CPI was 2.9% year - on - year, and the labor market cooled with 7.437 million job openings. GDP growth was affected by net exports, and the concern about stagflation remained [2]. - US and major economies' tariff policies became clearer in July, and market risk preferences continued to recover. Trump pressured the Fed to cut rates, but the market considered it a low - probability event that the Fed's independence would be impacted [2]. - Two key points for the meeting were whether the Fed would provide more guidance on the rate - cut path while keeping rates unchanged, and whether Fed理事沃勒 and鲍曼 would vote against the rate - hold decision, which would increase the uncertainty of the rate - cut expectation for the year [3]. 2. Meeting Content: No Guidance on Rate Cuts in September and Beyond, Cooling Market Expectations - The Fed kept the federal funds rate target range at 4.25% - 4.50%. Fed理事鲍曼 and沃勒 voted against, preferring a 0.25% rate cut [4]. - At the press conference, Powell did not guide on a September rate cut, cooled the market's September rate - cut expectation. He thought the job market was balanced, inflation was moving towards 2%, service inflation slowed while commodity inflation rose, and economic growth slowed due to reduced consumer spending. The removal of the "uncertainty has decreased" statement had no special meaning, and the process of final tariff estimation was not near the end [5]. - The meeting emphasized economic cooling factors and showed internal differences. The signal was relatively neutral, and the implied probability of a September rate cut decreased. After the press conference, market rate - cut expectations retreated, and major assets fluctuated [6][7]. 3. Market Outlook: Tracking the Continuity of Geopolitical and Economic Stability, and the Implementation of Anti - Involution and Domestic Demand Expansion - After the June meeting, the report proposed to track three macro contradictions: the impact of the Israel - Iran conflict on risk preferences, the progress of tariff negotiations, and domestic policies on expanding domestic demand [8]. - Since the June meeting, the Israel - Iran issue was quickly resolved, geopolitical risks were under control, tariff levels were determined, and domestic "anti - involution" policies were moving from expectation to implementation, with fiscal policies showing more signs of strength [8]. - The Fed maintained a wait - and - see attitude in July. Future macro contradictions should be observed from three aspects: geopolitical disturbances, the implementation of US multilateral tariffs and the smooth suspension of Sino - US tariffs, and the hedging effect of domestic policies on the decline in external demand [9][10][11].

安如泰山 信守承诺 【国投期货|有色视点】你问我答:多晶硅热点解读互动 研究院 1. 当前多晶硅期货仓单规模如何？是否存在遍仓预期? 7月多晶硅期货价格快速上行，而同期仓单增加470手（折合1410 吨），截至7月30日，多品硅期货仓单共 3070手（折合9210 吨），与主力合约高持仓形成对比。仓单增速平缓，原因在于：7月市场供需紧平衡，据 SMM、多晶硅产量预计近11万吨。而下游硅片排产从58GW降至50GW，若净出口环比持平，则当月无新增库存，仓 单补充依赖厂库库存转移。当前多晶硅厂库库存达历史高位（7月24日SMM统计24.3万吨），但结构呈现分化, 据悉，高库存集中于少数企业,其仓单生成进度不及预期;另有部分企业对期现商报价约5万元/吨（SMM），高 于现货成交区间,因此在政策不确定性下,价格博弈或放缓仓单生成速度。但参考5月行情，交割品不足引发的 潜在交割矛盾，在进入交割月后，随高持仓快速回落而消退。 2.当前多晶硅行业"反内卷"政策进程如何? 落后产能预期其真实性与合理性如何初步甄别? 多晶硅行业"反内卷"政策最新进展：据SMM，7月29日硅料企业召开行业会议，磋商产能收购事宜，具体调 整名单尚 ...

| | | | SDIC FUTURES | | 2025年07月31日 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 操作评级 | | | 螺纹 | ☆☆☆ | 曹颖 首席分析师 | | 热卷 | な女女 | F3003925 Z0012043 | | 铁矿 | ☆☆☆ | 何建辉 高级分析师 | | 焦炭 | ☆☆☆ | F0242190 Z0000586 | | 焦煤 | な女女 | | | 锰硅 | ☆☆☆ | 韩惊 高级分析师 | | 硅铁 | 女女女 | F03086835 Z0016553 | | | | 李啸尘 高级分析师 | | | | F3054140 Z0016022 | | | | 010-58747784 | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 【钢材】 今日盘面大幅回落。本周螺纹表需走弱，产量稍有回落，库存有所累积。热卷需求、产量均有所回升，库存继续小幅累积。铁 水产量维持高位，低库存格局下，市场负反馈压力不大，关注淡季需求承接能力。从下游行业看，地产投资继续大幅下滑，基 建增速放缓，7月制造业PMI回落至49.3，内需整体依然偏弱，出口 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the past two months, geopolitical risks did not cause spill - over effects, and the main line was to maintain stable geopolitical conflicts. Bilateral trade negotiations and tariff issues were under market attention, and China - US economic and trade conflicts maintained a stable stance. Domestic policies showed changes, with the "anti - involution" policy framework moving from expectation to implementation and the fiscal policy showing stronger signals of marginal efforts [3]. - The global risk preference has been repaired, and risk assets generally rose. The US dollar remained weakly volatile, and the market structure changed. The sectors corresponding to "anti - involution" and "expanding domestic demand" in the commodity market were strong, and the pricing expectations for re - inflation and profit repair increased [8][9]. - In the next 1 - 2 months, continue to track geopolitical disturbances and the implementation of US multilateral tariffs and China - US tariff suspension. Domestic policies should be tracked for their hedging effects on the decline in external demand. For financial products, the macro - liquidity is expected to remain stable and positive, and for commodities, the impact of "anti - involution" policies on the market is increasing [11][12][14]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Outlook - **Macro Operation Characteristics**: Geopolitical conflicts remained stable, trade negotiations were under market attention, and domestic policies changed. The "anti - involution" policy was expected to be implemented, and the fiscal policy showed marginal efforts [3]. - **Characteristics of Major Asset Operations**: Since mid - June, global risk preference has been repaired, risk assets generally rose, the US dollar remained weakly volatile, and the market structure changed. The sectors related to "anti - involution" and "expanding domestic demand" in the commodity market were strong [8][9]. - **Future Outlook**: Track geopolitical disturbances, the implementation of US multilateral tariffs and China - US tariff suspension, and the hedging effects of domestic policies on external demand [11][12]. 2. Financial Products - **Stock Index**: In July, the A - share market performed well, with the growth style stronger than the value style. The implementation of the long - term assessment mechanism for insurance funds and "anti - involution" policies supported the market. In August, if there is incremental capital inflow, the performance of equity assets is worth looking forward to, and attention should be paid to sector rotation [23]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Since July, the bond market has been weak, and the yield curve has shown a "bear steepening" feature. In August, the yield of the 10 - year treasury bond may continue to fluctuate within a range, and a curve steepening strategy is recommended [24][25]. 3. Commodities - **Energy**: Oil prices are likely to be under pressure and fluctuate. The coal market may have a tail - end upward period, and the PG/ crude oil ratio is expected to be suppressed. The natural gas market may be weak during the replenishment season [18][27][29]. - **Chemicals**: Propylene futures lack unilateral opportunities in the short term. Styrene is expected to continue its weak consolidation pattern. A strategy of going long on glass and short on soda ash is recommended [31][33][34]. - **Non - ferrous Metals and Precious Metals**: Polysilicon may remain oscillating strongly in the short term, and lithium can be considered for long - position replenishment after a correction. Alumina may face a callback risk, and copper prices may face resistance at integer levels [37][39]. - **Black Metals**: Steel prices are expected to rise with fluctuations, and it is not recommended to chase the rise of iron ore at high prices. Coking coal may be strong in the short term but face valuation pressure in the medium term. Ferroalloys are expected to rise first and then fall with a rising bottom [41][42][43]. - **Agricultural Products**: For oils, it is recommended to go long on soybean and palm oils at low prices. Cotton is expected to oscillate at a high level [46][48].

不可作为投资依据,转载请注明出处 | 《八♠ 国投期货 | | 软商品日报 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 操作评级 | 2025年07月31日 | | 棉花 | 女女女 | 曹凯 首席分析师 | | 纸浆 | ★☆☆ | F03095462 Z0017365 | | 白糖 | なな女 | 黄维 高级分析师 | | 苹果 | な女女 | F03096483 Z0017474 | | 木材 | ★☆☆ | | | 天然橡胶 | ななな | 胡华轩 高级分析师 | | 20号胶 | ななな | F0285606 Z0003096 | | 丁二烯橡胶 ☆☆☆ | | | | | | 010-58747784 | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | (棉花&棉纱) 今天郑棉继续下跌，09合约继续减仓,01合约虽有增仓，但增仓幅度不及09的减仓幅度；随着资金的离场和向远期合约移仓, 做多热情遭受较大冲击：7月份棉花库存消化速度放缓，下游需求偏弱，加工利润持续承压；仓单消化缓慢，市场对于仓单的质 量有疑虑,市场反应部分仓单含糖量偏高;国内本周反内卷的交易不断降温， ...

gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn 综合晨报 (原油) 隔夜国际油价继续上行，布伦特09合约涨0.98%。上周美国EIA原油库存超预期增加769.8万桶，但 市场关注焦点仍是近期再度升温的制裁油风险。特朗普将对俄制裁的最后期限提前至8月8日,并决 定对印度加征25％对等关税，俄油主要购买方存在避险寻找替代油种的驱动，昨日美国亦发布最新 一轮对伊朗制裁。此前我们已提示8月末、9月初伊核、俄乌相关的地缘博弈窗口期已被前置，她缘 风险短期对油价构成支撑，投资者仍可关注原油虚值看涨期权的避险价值。 【贵金属】 隔夜美国公布二季度GDP年化李率3%反弹超预期，ADP就业增加10.4万人同样超预期和前值，数据发 布后美元反弹，贵金属承压回落。美联储会议如期维持利率不变，美联储内部分歧加大，鲍威尔讲 话重申降息将依赖数据。近期地缘风险平稳，关税谈判逐渐明朗，经济衰退风险下降，避险情绪降 温压制贵金属表现,震荡调整或将延续。 【铜】 隔夜铜价收低,特朗普将精钢进口加征关税排除在外,主要针对铜加工材,另美盘铜价短线暴跌近 20%，实货进口套利预期反转，COMEX铜库存已在25万吨水平。美国涉铜232关税逻 ...