Group 1: Energy and Metals Oil - Overnight international oil prices rebounded for the second consecutive day, with Brent's December contract rising 2.5%. Geopolitical risks in Russia-Ukraine and EU sanctions on Russia are driving the short-term bullish trend. Attention is on the China-US-Malaysia talks from 24 - 27th and subsequent Russia-US dialogues [1]. Precious Metals - Overnight, gold and silver rebounded. Global uncertainties may lead to short-term high-level oscillations. It is advisable to wait for opportunities. Focus on the US September CPI data release tonight [2]. Copper - Overnight, Shanghai copper continued its upward trend. The high gold-copper ratio enhances the resilience of copper price allocation. The domestic spot copper price was 85,490 yuan, with a Shanghai premium of 10 yuan. The weekly inventory decreased by 5,700 tons to 189,800 tons. It is recommended to wait and see [3]. Aluminum - Crude oil drove commodity prices up, and Shanghai aluminum continued its bullish trend. An overseas aluminum plant cut production by 200,000 tons due to an accident. Supply is expected to grow slowly. Demand is lackluster. Temporarily view the upside space with caution [4]. Alumina - Alumina's operating capacity is at a historical high, and inventory is rising. Supply is in excess, and spot prices are falling. The price is approaching the cash loss in Shanxi and Henan. It is expected to operate weakly [5]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - The Baotai ADC12 spot price is 20,700 yuan. Scrap aluminum supply is tight, and tax policy adjustments may increase costs. However, industry inventory and SHFE warehouse receipts are high. It follows aluminum price fluctuations [6]. Zinc - LME zinc inventory is low, and the 0 - 3 month premium has dropped to $220/ton. The tight overseas spot market supports the high-level oscillation of LME zinc. The domestic market is weaker than the overseas one. The export window is open, and the outer market pulls the inner market. The support level for Shanghai zinc is at 21,500 yuan/ton, and the short-term upside is capped at 23,000 yuan/ton [7]. Lead - The import window is open, and the outer market has strong support at $1,960/ton. Domestic refineries are in the transition from production cuts to resumption. SMM lead social inventory is at a low of 37,700 tons. Some regions have tight lead ingot supplies, supporting the market. Shanghai lead is expected to continue its upward trend [8]. Nickel and Stainless Steel - Shanghai nickel rebounded, but market trading was light. Downstream demand recovery is limited, and social inventory has stopped falling and started to rise. The overall confidence in the spot market is weak. Technically, Shanghai nickel is bearish [9]. Tin - Overnight, tin prices rose. LME tin is being watched for its performance against the MA20 moving average. The LME 0 - 3 month spot premium has risen to $100. Low imports of tin concentrate in September and limited resumption of Myanmar mines support tin prices. The upside space is limited [10]. Lithium Carbonate - Lithium carbonate prices rebounded, and market trading picked up. Demand in the peak season is still strong, and the inventory has decreased. Technically, it is short-term bullish [11]. Industrial Silicon - Industrial silicon futures oscillated upward, partly driven by the black - series market. If coal policy tightens, cost support will strengthen. In October, supply is differentiated. Supply pressure is accumulating, and the weekly social inventory has slightly increased. In November, production cuts in the southwest are likely, and the supply - demand contradiction may ease. The short - term trend is expected to be oscillatory [12]. Polysilicon - Polysilicon futures rebounded after approaching the lower end of the range. Spot prices are stable. Production cuts in October were less than expected, and the probability of silicon wafer production cuts in November - December has increased. The fundamentals lack positive support, and the market is expected to oscillate [13]. Iron Ore - Overnight, iron ore futures oscillated. Supply is strong globally, and domestic arrivals have decreased from the high level. Port inventory is increasing. Demand is weakening as hot metal production declines. Market sentiment has improved due to expectations of policy support. The short - term trend is expected to be bullish [15]. Coke - Coke prices rose during the day. The second round of price increases has started. Coking profits are average, and daily production has slightly decreased. Inventory is decreasing slightly. The market may be bullish as the cost is expected to rise [16]. Coking Coal - Coking coal prices rose during the day. Political instability in Mongolia has raised concerns about coal imports. Production has slightly increased, and spot auction prices are rising. Inventory has increased slightly. The market may be bullish as the cost is expected to rise [17]. Manganese Silicon - Manganese silicon prices oscillated upward, driven by steel prices. Demand is supported by high hot metal production. Production has slightly decreased, and inventory has slightly decreased. Manganese ore prices are rising slightly. Attention is on external trade frictions [18]. Silicon Iron - Silicon iron prices oscillated upward, driven by steel prices. Demand is supported by high hot metal production. Export demand is stable, and secondary demand has slightly increased. Supply is high, and inventory is decreasing. Attention is on external trade frictions [19]. Group 2: Chemicals Fuel Oil and Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - Overnight, fuel oil followed the upward trend of crude oil. High - sulfur fuel oil is short - term bullish due to geopolitical factors but may face supply pressure in the medium term. Low - sulfur fuel oil is currently weak but may improve in the fourth quarter [21]. Asphalt - Crude oil led the rise in oil product futures, and BU continued its upward trend. The weekly asphalt开工率 decreased, and November refinery production is expected to decline. Social inventory is steadily decreasing, and factory inventory is decreasing slowly. The short - term market is in a tight balance, and the rising cost supports the price [22]. Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG) - This week, LPG supply increased slightly. Chemical demand is growing, and combustion demand is expected to strengthen. Refinery and port inventories have decreased. The market is supported by fundamental improvements and rising crude oil prices [23]. Urea - With the end of rainy weather, agricultural demand for urea has increased, and production enterprise inventory accumulation has slowed. Export policy is unclear, and port inventory has decreased significantly. Supply is still abundant, but domestic supply has decreased slightly. The short - term market is expected to oscillate bullishly [24]. Methanol - Imported methanol unloading is slower than expected, and port inventory has slightly increased. Domestic plant utilization has decreased, and the inventory of production enterprises is flat. Port inventory is high. In the short term, the market is affected by policy factors. In the long term, import supply pressure is expected to decrease, and the price may oscillate upward [25]. Pure Benzene - Driven by rising oil prices, pure benzene futures rebounded. Last week, downstream buying was weak, and port inventory increased. After the price decline, short - term supply concerns and rising oil prices have boosted buying. In the medium term, high imports remain a pressure. Attention is on port inventory accumulation [26]. Styrene - Driven by cost, styrene is short - term bullish. However, high inventory may limit the upside [27]. Polypropylene, Polyethylene, and Propylene - Propylene prices are stable at a low level. Polyethylene prices are slightly rising due to positive macro factors and cost support, but downstream resistance is strong. Polypropylene trading sentiment has improved, but real - demand growth is limited [28]. PVC and Caustic Soda - PVC supply is increasing as maintenance ends. Domestic demand is stable, and exports are good. Cost support is not obvious, and the market may operate at the bottom. For caustic soda, supply is fluctuating slightly. Non - aluminum downstream inventory replenishment has decreased inventory, but high inventory pressure remains [29]. PX and PTA - Rising oil prices have provided support for PX and PTA. The textile market has improved, and polyester production is expected to be stable. Upcoming refinery maintenance may affect PX supply. PTA processing margins are weak, and new plant trials are expected. The short - term trend is bullish, but in the medium term, inventory accumulation may be a concern [30]. Ethylene Glycol - Domestic production has decreased due to refinery maintenance, but new plant supply has increased. East China port inventory has decreased. Supply is expected to contract, and demand is improving. The short - term trend is bullish, but medium - term inventory accumulation is a risk [31]. Short - Fiber and Bottle - Grade Resin - Short - fiber production is at a high level, and inventory is decreasing. The spot price is strong, and the processing margin is improving. Raw material price increases have boosted downstream buying. The short - term trend is bullish. For bottle - grade resin, demand is weakening due to the season, and inventory is increasing [32]. Group 3: Agricultural Products Soybeans and Soybean Meal - US soybeans continued to rise, and the oil - meal ratio decreased. Domestic soybean meal inventory is still high. Overall, the supply in the fourth quarter is stable, but it may tighten in the first quarter of next year if Sino - US trade relations deteriorate. The market is waiting for the outcome of the Sino - US trade talks [36]. Soybean Oil and Palm Oil - Palm oil enters the production - reduction cycle in the fourth quarter. If supply decreases rapidly, the price will be more resilient. Currently, the supply increase in Malaysia is larger than usual, and short - term price corrections are possible. In the long term, it is advisable to go long on vegetable oils at low prices [37]. Rapeseed and Rapeseed Oil - Overnight, overseas rapeseed futures were boosted by oil prices. Domestic rapeseed is expected to follow. The Sino - US trade talks are crucial. Australian rapeseed is being harvested, and Russian rapeseed exports to China may increase. There is a risk of inventory accumulation for domestic rapeseed oil. A short - rapeseed cross - product strategy is recommended [38]. Domestic Soybeans - Domestic soybean prices rose, following the overseas market. The market is optimistic about the trade talks. Domestic soybean auctions had some transactions at 3,900 yuan/ton. The price difference between domestic and imported soybeans is oscillating. Short - term attention is on policy guidance [39]. Corn - The "market - based purchase + policy - supported storage" system is emphasized. Northeast corn prices are slightly rising, and Shandong's supply is increasing. Demand is mainly for rigid needs. The supply will remain abundant in the next two weeks, and Dalian corn may continue to be weak at the bottom, with increased volatility [40]. Live Pigs - Live pig futures increased in position. Near - month contracts fluctuated narrowly, and far - month contracts hit new lows. Spot prices rebounded slightly. The enthusiasm for second - round fattening has decreased. Although supply pressure is high, the large price difference between fat and lean pigs may slow down supply release. Consumption is expected to improve in the fourth quarter. However, due to continuous supply pressure, it is advisable to go short after the price rebounds. The pig price may form a double - bottom pattern, with the October low likely to be the first bottom [41]. Eggs - Egg futures decreased in position by 30,000 lots and rose strongly. The main December contract rose over 3%. Spot prices mostly increased. Vegetable prices rose after the National Day. In the short term, risk avoidance is necessary. In the medium term, the industry needs to accelerate the culling of old hens. Cold - storage eggs are still a potential pressure. The short - term strategy is to wait and see, and the medium - term trend may be bearish [42]. Cotton - US cotton prices rose. Brazilian cotton production is expected to be high. Zhengzhou cotton also rose. Spot prices were stable, and trading was average. Xinjiang machine - picked cotton prices are slightly rising. The national new cotton picking progress is 58.8%, and the cumulative processed lint is 982,000 tons. Ginning mills are cautious in purchasing. The peak season demand is weak. The short - term rise is considered a rebound. Attention is on Sino - US relations and production [43]. Sugar - Overnight, US sugar oscillated. Brazilian sugar production is high, and the production in India and Thailand is also expected to be good. The international supply is abundant, and there is pressure on the upside. In China, the market is focusing on the new - season production estimate. The rainfall in Guangxi has been good since July, and the sugar production in the 25/26 season is expected to be positive. Attention is on the weather and sugarcane growth [44]. Apples - Apple futures are bullish. The market is focusing on cold - storage inventory. The national apple bagging volume has decreased slightly, and the production may be lower due to smaller fruit sizes. Farmers and traders are more willing to store apples, and the initial cold - storage inventory may be higher than expected. Attention is on the storage situation [45]. Wood - Wood futures oscillated. The overseas price is high, and the domestic price is weak. Traders are less likely to increase imports, and the domestic supply may remain low. Port shipments are above 60,000 cubic meters, supporting the price. The inventory is low. The supply - demand situation has improved, and a long - position strategy is recommended [46]. Pulp - Pulp futures rose. The spot prices of coniferous and broad - leaf pulp are stable. As of October 16, 2025, the inventory at major Chinese pulp ports decreased by 0.3 million tons to 2.074 million tons, a 0.1% decrease. September imports were 2.9525 million tons, an increase of 272,500 tons year - on - year. The domestic port inventory is high, and demand is weak. The rising price of overseas broad - leaf pulp provides some support. It is advisable to wait and see [47]. Group 4: Financial Products Stock Index - The A - share market rebounded at the end of the day after a low - level oscillation. All three major indices closed in the green. Stock index futures also rose, with IH leading at 0.58%. All contracts were at a discount to the underlying index. Overnight, overseas stock markets rose, and US bond yields increased. The Sino - US trade talks from 24 - 27th and the 20th Fourth Plenary Session's goals are attracting attention. In the medium term, the focus should be on the technology - growth sector, but short - term market style rotation may occur [48]. Treasury Bonds - Treasury bond futures oscillated upward. The Sino - US trade talks may boost market risk appetite. The structural differentiation in the Treasury bond futures market continues, and the steepening of the yield curve may end [49].

塑料和聚丙烯期货主力合约日内继续震荡上行收涨。聚乙烯方面，宏观面转为偏暖，成本支撑增强，市场心态 好转,多小幅排涨,但下游抵触涨价,成交放缓。聚丙烯方面,场内业者交投情绪有所改善,贸易商报盘随行 小幅跟涨。但下游工厂需求暂无明显改善,择低按需采买,实盘放量有限。 【纯苯-苯乙烯】 油价提振下,纯苯期价继续反弹;华东现货价格同步回升,山东低端报价抬升。上周下游买气偏弱,港口累 库,纯苯价格持续下跌后,利空释放,周度产量继续下降。短期市场担忧重整检修导致供应收缩叠加油价反 弹,纯苯下游积极采购,提振价格;中期进口量偏高依旧是主要压力,后市关注港口累库节奏,月差反套为 主。 苯乙烯期货主力合约日内继续上行收涨。油价震荡上涨，地缘溢价回归，成本端带动下苯乙烯短期走势偏强。 供需基本面上,苯乙烯市场存装置降负停工消息,但多为预期,尚未落地,库存继续高位难去,对苯乙烯上行 空间形成压制。 本报告版权属于国投期货有限公司 不可作为投资依据，转载请注明出处 1 【聚酯) | 110. 国技期货 | | | | 化工日报 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 操作评级 | | 2025 ...

【豆一】 国产大豆主力再度上涨，跟随海外市场走强,市场预期转乐观,对贸易谈判给予期待。本国国产大豆仍然进行 了竞价拍卖,并有一定的成交量,成交价格在3900元/吨,跟上周成交价格持平。市场参与主体在积极收购新 粮。国产大豆和进口大豆价差经过近期走扩之后震荡整理。美豆方面市场在关注贸易谈判的指引。短期持续关 注政策端指引。 | | | | VV V SDIC FUTURES | | 2025年10月23日 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 操作评级 | | | 豆一 | | 杨蕊霞 农产品组长 | | | ☆☆☆ | F0285733 Z0011333 | | 豆粕 | ななな | 吴小明 首席分析师 | | 豆油 | ななな | | | | | F3078401 Z0015853 | | 棕櫚油 | ななな | 董甜甜 高级分析师 | | 薬粕 | ななな | | | | | F0302203 Z0012037 | | 菜油 | なな女 | 宋腾 高级分析师 | | 玉米 | ★☆☆ | | | | | F03135787 Z0021166 | | 生猪 | ななな | | | 鸡蛋 | な ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Thread: ★☆☆ [1] - Hot Rolled Coil: ★☆☆ [1] - Iron Ore: ★☆☆ [1] - Coke: ★☆☆ [1] - Coking Coal: ★☆☆ [1] - Ferrosilicon: ★☆★ [1] Core Views - The steel market is affected by factors such as weak terminal demand, policy expectations, and cost support, with the price rebounding but limited by demand [1] - The iron ore market is expected to be volatile and strong in the short - term, due to factors like supply and demand changes and policy expectations [2] - The coke and coking coal markets are likely to be prone to rising and difficult to fall, supported by downstream demand and cost expectations [3][5] - The silicon manganese and ferrosilicon markets are driven by steel, with overall good demand and attention to external trade frictions [6][7] Summaries by Related Categories Steel - Today's steel futures rebounded with fluctuations. Thread demand recovered this week but was still weak year - on - year, production increased, and inventory decreased. Hot - rolled coil demand rose, production was flat, and inventory decreased. Iron - water production remained high, but downstream acceptance was insufficient. With the decline in steel mill profits, the negative feedback expectation in the industrial chain continued to ferment. From September data, domestic demand was weak, and steel exports remained high. The market rebounded due to policy expectations and cost increases, but the weak demand limited the rebound space [1] Iron Ore - Today's iron ore futures were volatile and strong. Supply was strong globally, domestic arrivals declined from a high level, and port inventory continued to accumulate. Demand - side iron - water production was gradually falling from a high level, and the pressure to cut production would increase in the future. With expectations of policy benefits, the market sentiment improved. It is expected to be volatile and strong in the short - term [2] Coke - Coke prices rose during the day. The second round of price hikes in the coking industry started. Coking profits were average, and daily production decreased slightly. Coke inventory continued to decline slightly. Downstream buyers purchased on demand, and traders' purchasing willingness was average. Overall, carbon supply was abundant, and the high - level iron - water production supported the price. The price was likely to be prone to rising and difficult to fall [3] Coking Coal - Coking coal prices rose during the day. Due to political unrest in Mongolia, the stability of Mongolian coal imports was a concern. Coking coal mine production increased slightly, spot auction transactions improved, and prices rose. Terminal inventory increased, and total inventory rose slightly. The price was likely to be prone to rising and difficult to fall [5] Silicon Manganese - Silicon manganese prices rose with fluctuations during the day, driven by steel. Iron - water production remained high on the demand side. Weekly production declined slightly, inventory decreased slightly, and both futures and spot demand were good. Manganese ore prices increased slightly, and inventory decreased slightly [6] Ferrosilicon - Ferrosilicon prices rose with fluctuations during the day, driven by steel. Iron - water production remained high on the demand side. Export demand was about 30,000 tons, with a marginal impact. Magnesium production increased slightly, and overall demand was okay. Supply remained high, and inventory continued to decline [7]

/// > 国授期货 能源&航运四季度策略: 此起彼伏，交替寻底 国投期货研究院 高明宇 Z0012038 2025.10 工业品分化依然明显，避险情绪仍在向极值方向演绎 -70% -20% 30% 80% 130% 23/1 23/3 23/5 23/7 23/9 23/11 24/1 24/3 24/5 24/7 24/9 24/11 25/1 25/3 25/5 25/7 25/9 黄金 白银 铜 铝 螺纹钢 铁矿石 美汽油 欧柴油 PP PE PTA 沥青 布伦特 秦港Q5500动力煤 TTF 数据来源：wind，国投期货 后能源危机时代大宗商品累计涨跌幅 能源系商品单位热值价格表现 0 5 10 15 20 24/9/27 24/11/27 25/1/27 25/3/27 25/5/27 25/7/27 25/9/27 布伦特原油 LPG 美汽油 欧柴油 高硫燃料油 TTF天然气 HH天然气 ICE NEWC Q6000 秦港动力煤Q5500 数据来源：wind，路透，国投期货 美元/10亿焦耳 // 国投期货 厦油 • -21 -19 -17 -15 -13 -11 -9 -7 -6 -4 -2 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: ★★★, indicating a clearer long - trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1] - Fuel oil: Not clearly interpretable from the given symbol "ななな" - Low - sulfur fuel oil: Not clearly interpretable from the given symbol "文文文" - Asphalt: Not clearly interpretable from the given symbol "なな☆" - Liquefied petroleum gas: Not clearly interpretable from the given symbol "文文文" Report's Core View - The oil market is in a state of short - term rebound. In the absence of additional negatives, the downward momentum of oil prices this week has slowed down, and attention should be paid to the impact of geopolitical fluctuations on the resistance level of Brent at $65 per barrel [2] - Fuel oil and low - sulfur fuel oil prices mainly follow crude oil fluctuations. High - sulfur fuel oil is supported in the short - term, but supply is expected to be looser in the medium - term. Low - sulfur fuel oil has a weak fundamentals currently but demand may improve marginally in the fourth quarter [3] - The asphalt market maintains a tight balance, and the strengthening of the cost side helps to consolidate the upward trend [4] - The fundamentals of liquefied petroleum gas have improved marginally, and the strengthening of crude oil gives it a boost [4] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Crude Oil - Overnight international oil prices rebounded violently, and the SC11 contract rose 4.4%. Considering the approaching of the low point in April and the decline of net long positions in futures and options, the downward momentum of oil prices is expected to slow down this week. EIA inventories declined last week, and geopolitical risks have increased. The market is in a state of oversold rebound [2] Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - Fuel oil prices follow the strengthening of the crude oil cost side due to multiple macro - factors. The supply - demand contradiction of fuel oil is not prominent. High - sulfur fuel oil is supported in the short - term but supply may be looser in the medium - term. Low - sulfur fuel oil has a weak fundamentals currently, but demand may improve marginally in the fourth quarter [3] Asphalt - Crude oil leads the rise of oil product futures, and BU continues the upward trend. The weekly start - up rate of asphalt nationwide declined, the production plan of refineries in November decreased significantly. The weekly shipment volume of 54 asphalt sample enterprises declined. Social inventory continued to be destocked, and factory inventory was destocked slowly. The market maintains a tight balance [4] Liquefied Petroleum Gas - Today, the rebound of crude oil led to the rise of oil product futures, and the LPG main contract rose about 2.6%. This week, the supply increased slightly. Chemical demand has increased, and the demand expectation of the combustion end is strong, but the actual demand is currently flat. Weekly refinery and port inventories declined [4]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Propylene, plastic, PX, PTA, and benzene ethylene are rated ★☆★, indicating a moderately bullish trend [1]. - PVC, ethylene glycol, short - fiber, and bottle chips are rated ★☆☆, suggesting a slightly bullish trend [1]. - Urea, methanol, and glass are rated ☆☆☆, meaning a neutral trend with low operability [1]. - Caustic soda and soda ash are rated ☆☆☆, also indicating a neutral state [1]. Core Views - In the chemical market, different chemical products show various trends. Some are affected by factors such as oil prices, supply - demand relationships, and downstream demand, with short - term and medium - term outlooks varying [2][3][5]. Summary by Related Catalogs Olefins - Polyolefins - The main contract of propylene futures continued to rise. Propylene prices remained stable at a low level, with a strong wait - and - see sentiment in the market [2]. - The main contracts of plastic and polypropylene futures oscillated upwards. For polyethylene, the macro - environment improved, but downstream resistance to price increases led to slower trading. For polypropylene, the trading sentiment improved, but downstream demand had no obvious improvement [2]. Pure Benzene - Styrene - Boosted by oil prices, the pure benzene futures price continued to rebound, and the spot price in East China also recovered. In the short term, concerns about supply contraction and oil price rebounds led to increased downstream purchases, while high imports remained a medium - term pressure [3]. - The main contract of styrene futures continued to rise. Driven by oil prices, styrene showed a short - term strong trend, but high inventory suppressed its upward space [3]. Polyester - The sharp rebound in oil prices provided impetus for PX and PTA. The textile market improved, but PTA was expected to face inventory accumulation in the medium term. Ethylene glycol might rebound in the short term but had medium - term inventory pressure. Short - fiber was expected to continue a bullish trend, while bottle chips faced weakening demand [5]. Coal Chemical Industry - The main contract of methanol rose slightly. The port inventory was high, and it might oscillate in the short term and tend to be stronger in the medium - to - long - term. The urea futures price continued to rise slightly, with improved supply - demand margins and cost support [6]. Chlor - Alkali - The supply of PVC was expected to increase, with stable domestic demand and good export in September. It might operate in the bottom - range. The supply of caustic soda fluctuated slightly, with inventory decline in non - aluminum downstream, and it might operate at a low - range [7]. Soda Ash - Glass - The soda ash industry had a slight inventory reduction, but supply remained high. It was advisable to short at high levels after a rebound. The glass price continued to fall, with inventory accumulation, and its downward range was expected to be limited [8].

(白糖) 隔夜美糖震荡。9月下半月巴西中南部的生产数据依然偏空，生产进度继续加快，甘蔗压榨量同比增加。另外，甘蔗制糖比依然 较高，产糖量也同比明显增加。综合来看，虽然今年甘蔗压榨量和出糖率下降，但是制糖比例有所增加，弥补了食糖产量损 失，巴西的食糖产量将继续维持高位。国内方面，郑糖偏弱震荡。从交易逻辑来看，市场的交易重心转向下榨季的估产。天气 方面，进入7月份之后广西降雨情况较好，降雨量较往年偏多。从遥感数据来看，目前广西甘蔗植被指数同比有所增加，25/26 榨季广西的食糖产量预期相对较好,关注后续天气情况和甘蔗长势。综合来看,预计糖价将维持偏弱震荡。 | 11/11/2 | > 國技期货 | 软商品日报 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 操作评级 | 2025年10月23日 | | 棉花 | な女女 | 曹凯 首席分析师 | | 纸浆 | な女女 | F03095462 Z0017365 | | 白糖 | な女女 | 黄维 高级分析师 | | 苹果 | な女女 | F03096483 Z0017474 | | 木材 | ★☆★ | | | 天然橡胶 | ★☆☆ | 胡华轩 高级分析师 | ...

| Million | > 國技期货 | 责金属日报 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 操作评级 | 2025年10月23日 | | 黄金 | ☆☆☆ | 刘冬博 高级分析师 | | 白银 | ☆☆☆ | F3062795 Z0015311 | | | | 吴江 高级分析师 | | | | F3085524 Z0016394 | | | | 010-58747784 | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | ★当地时间10月22日，美国参议院以54票对46票再次否决共和党提出的临时拨款法案，政府"停摆"僵局仍 在持续。这是近期在美国政府"停摆"之后,参议院第12次投票否决了该临时拨款法案。 ★关税 --- 1消息称印度与美国即将达成贸易协议,降低对印度关税至15%-16%。2特朗普政府准备展开药 品调查,为新关税铺路。 本报告版权属于国投期货有限公司 不可作为投资依据,转载请注明出处 1 【星级说明】红色星级代表预判趋势性上涨,绿色星级代表预判趋势性下跌 ★☆☆ 一颗星代表偏多/空,判断趋势有上涨/下跌的驱动,但盘面可操作性不强 ★★☆ 两颗星代表持多/空 ...

国投期货研究院 gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn 【责金属】 综合晨报 2025年10月23日 隔夜金银延续弱势调整。中美贸易、俄乌战争和美国停摆等事件均处于博弈关键时期,风险情绪易 产生摇摆。短期责金属严重超买正在修复，回调后可能进入阶段性高位震荡阶段，建议暂时观望等 待企稳后买入机会。 (原油) 【铜】 隔夜国际油价暴力反弹,布伦特12合约涨4.36%。此前我们已提示油市中期供需面偏空,但考虑到 国际油价已临近4月贸易战低点,外盘原油期货及期权净多持仓亦已回落至区间低位,我们认为在无 额外利空的情况下本周油价下跌动能趋缓；美国上周EIA原油及油品库存均录得下滑，隔夜俄乌地缘 博弈亦急剧升温,特朗普称取消此前酝酿的与普京布达佩斯会谈,欧盟19轮对俄制裁计划涉及4家中 国石油公司,美国财政部发布针对俄罗斯Rosneft和卢克石油及其实控实体的最新制裁。原油市场 处于超跌反弹状态，关注地缘犹动对布伦特65美元/桶阻力位的突破情况。 (氧化铝) 氧化铝运行产能处于历史高位，行业库存持续上升。供应过剩明显，各地现货指数继续下调。9月晋 豫平均成本在3000元左右,当前指数价格尚不足以触发晋豫 ...