Overseas Macro - The Federal Reserve initiated a rate cut cycle, reducing the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to a target range of 4.25%-4.50%[1] - The market is pricing in a more hawkish rate cut path, with the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield approaching 4.6%[1] - November PCE inflation was weaker than expected, with a year-on-year increase of 2.4%, below the forecast of 2.5%[28] Domestic Macro - In November, China's retail sales growth was significantly below expectations at 3.0%, compared to the forecast of 4.6%[32] - Fixed asset investment growth in November was 3.3%, slightly below the expected 3.4%[51] - The real estate sector showed signs of recovery, with November housing sales area reaching 81.88 million square meters, marking a year-on-year growth of 3.3%[33] Economic Indicators - The U.S. retail sales in November increased by 0.7% month-on-month, exceeding the expected 0.5%[64] - Core retail sales, excluding automobiles, rose by 0.2%, below the forecast of 0.4%[64] - The unemployment rate forecast for 2024-2025 was lowered to 4.2% and 4.3%, respectively, from 4.4%[26]

Group 1: Employment and Economic Indicators - In November, the U.S. added 227,000 non-farm jobs, exceeding expectations of 200,000, with previous months revised up by 56,000[3] - The unemployment rate rose to 4.24%, slightly above the expected 4.20%[3] - Labor participation rate decreased to 62.5%, below the expected 62.7%[3] Group 2: Inflation and Price Trends - Average hourly earnings increased by 4.0% year-on-year, surpassing the expected 3.9%[3] - The ISM Manufacturing PMI rose to 48.4, above the expected 47.5, indicating improved demand[5] - The ISM Services PMI fell to 52.1, below the expected 55.5, showing a slowdown in service sector expansion[6] Group 3: Market Performance - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield decreased to 4.15%, reflecting a decline in bond yields[12] - The A-share market's trading volume stabilized at 1.7 trillion, indicating liquidity in the market[1] - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 2.33% over the past week, reflecting positive market sentiment[10] Group 4: Risk Factors - Global geopolitical tensions are increasing, which may impact market stability[1] - Domestic policy effects are not meeting expectations, raising concerns about economic performance[1]

Group 1: Overseas Macro Insights - In October, the US PCE price index rebounded to 2.3% year-on-year, matching expectations and ending a six-month decline[3] - The US GDP for Q3 was revised to an annualized rate of 2.8%, driven by strong consumer spending[1] - The US unemployment claims indicate resilience in the job market, with a recent announcement of tariffs on Mexico, Canada, and China causing a temporary spike in the dollar index, which closed at 105.7[1] Group 2: Domestic Macro Insights - The manufacturing PMI for November recorded 50.3, indicating a continuous recovery for three months, with production and demand both improving[9] - Industrial enterprise profits continued to decline, with a total profit of 58,680.4 billion yuan from January to October, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 4.3%[15] - The non-manufacturing PMI for November was 50.1, remaining low due to seasonal effects and a cooling construction sector[10] Group 3: Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 1.81% last week, with a year-to-date increase of 11.82%[19] - The 10-year US Treasury yield closed at 4.18%, reflecting a year-to-date increase of 30 basis points[21] - The CRB Commodity Index decreased by 1.02% last week but has increased by 8.76% year-to-date[24]

| --- | --- | --- | --- | |-------|---------------------------------|-------------------------------------------------------|----------------------------------------------| | | | | 宏观周报 | | | | | | | | 2024 | 年 11 月 25 日 | | | | | 地缘风险持续升温，国内风险偏好回落 | | | | | | | | ⚫ | 核心观点 海外方面， 11 月美国 | Markit 制造业 PMI 录得 48.9 符合预 | 投资咨询业务资格 | | | 期，创 4 | 个月新高但仍低于荣枯线。除产出项骤减，其他 | 沪证监许可【 2015 】 84 号 | | | | 分项均有所回升，特朗普主张的贸易保护主义提振了商品 | 李婷 | | | 生产部门的信心。服务业 | PMI 录得 57.0 远超预期，创下 | 021-68555105 | | | 2022 年 3 | 月以来的最高。鉴于美国经济韧劲尚可 ...

Group 1: Overseas Macro Insights - In November, the US Markit Manufacturing PMI recorded 48.8, meeting expectations but remaining below the expansion threshold for five consecutive months[3] - The US Services PMI for November reached 57.0, exceeding expectations and marking the highest level since March 2022[3] - The probability of a 15 basis point rate cut in December is estimated at 51%[1] Group 2: Domestic Economic Trends - Domestic real estate sales showed signs of cooling in November, while automotive consumption increased due to policy support[1] - The Shanghai Composite Index fell by 1.91%, and the Shenzhen Component Index declined by 2.89%[8] - The 10-year government bond yield decreased to 2.08%, while the 30-year yield fell to 2.25%[1] Group 3: Market Performance - The A-share market saw a trading volume drop to 1.7 trillion yuan, indicating reduced risk appetite among investors[1] - The 30-year fixed mortgage rate in the US rose to 6.9%, marking an increase for eight consecutive weeks[7] - The CRB Commodity Index increased by 3.64% over the past week, while the COMEX gold price rose to $2,718.20, reflecting a year-to-date increase of 31.20%[15]

Group 1: Economic Overview - The US GDP for Q3 2024 recorded a growth rate of 2.8%, slightly below the expected 3.0%[40] - Personal consumption contributed 2.46% to GDP, up from 1.90% in Q2, indicating resilient consumer spending[40] - In China, the retail sales growth in October was 4.8%, surpassing the expected 3.8% and previous 3.2%[52] Group 2: Monetary Policy and Market Reactions - The Federal Reserve lowered interest rates by 25 basis points in November, bringing the target range to 4.50%-4.75%[41] - Market expectations for a further rate cut in December are at 58%, although a pause is likely due to resilient consumption and employment[41] - Following the US presidential election, the dollar index and US Treasury yields surged, reflecting market reactions to Trump's return[42] Group 3: Asset Performance - In October, domestic equity markets outperformed international markets, with A-shares rising by 2.28%[66] - The RMB index increased by 1.43%, while the South China commodity index fell by 1.41%[66] - Global bond markets showed significant weakness, with a decline of 3.35% in the Bloomberg global bond index[67]

| --- | --- | --- | --- | |-------|---------------------------------|-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------|---------------------------------------------------| | | | | 宏观周报 | | | | | | | | | 2024 年 11 月 18 日 | | | | | 强美元压制风险资产，国内增量政策效果初现 | | | | | | | | ⚫ | 核心观点 海外方面，美国 10 月 | CPI 如期回升，止步六连降，核心商 | 投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可【 2015 】 84 号 | | | 升温。随后公布的 PPI | 品降温、核心服务走平，但联储关注的超级核心通胀小幅 超预期回升，服务价格粘性犹存， | 李婷 | | | | 同时公布的美国最新初请失业金回落至 21.7 万人，显示就 | 021-68555105 | | | 业市场充满韧劲。美国 ...

Group 1: U.S. Economic Indicators - Q3 U.S. GDP growth recorded at 2.8%, slightly below the expected 3.0%[2] - Personal consumption contributed 2.46% to GDP, up from 1.90% in Q2[2] - October non-farm payrolls added only 12,000 jobs, significantly below the expected 113,000[4] Group 2: Inflation and Employment - Core PCE inflation for September at 2.7%, slightly above the expected 2.6%[6] - Average hourly earnings year-on-year growth steady at 4.0%[4] - Unemployment rate increased to 4.14%, above the expected 4.10%[4] Group 3: Manufacturing and Trade - October manufacturing PMI rose to 50.1, indicating expansion[8] - Trade deficit impact on GDP narrowed from -0.90% in Q2 to -0.56% in Q3[3] - New export orders fell to 47.3, reflecting weak external demand[8] Group 4: Market Reactions - U.S. dollar index rebounded to 104.3 after initial drop[1] - 10-year U.S. Treasury yield approached key levels, indicating market volatility[1] - Focus remains on upcoming U.S. elections and November FOMC meeting[1]

Overseas Macro - In October, the US manufacturing PMI was reported at 47.8, slightly above the expected 47.5, continuing to remain below the neutral level of 50 for four consecutive months[2] - The US services PMI for October was recorded at 55.3, exceeding the expected 55.0, marking the 23rd consecutive month of expansion[2] - The US unemployment claims fell to 227,000, indicating resilience in the US economy[1] Domestic Macro - In September, industrial profits in China continued to decline, with a total profit of 52,281.6 billion yuan, down 3.5% year-on-year[4] - The profit growth rate for industrial enterprises in September was -27.1%, a significant drop from the previous -17.8%[5] - The revenue for industrial enterprises in the first nine months of 2024 was 99.2 trillion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 2.1%[4] Market Performance - The US dollar index rose to 104.3, reflecting a 0.83% increase week-on-week and a 3.53% increase month-to-date[14] - The 10-year US Treasury yield surpassed 4.2%, indicating a 17 basis points increase week-on-week[10] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3,299.70, with a year-to-date increase of 10.92%[9]

Group 1: Economic Overview - The U.S. GDP growth rate for Q2 was revised to 3.0%, exceeding the expected 2.9%[7] - The U.S. non-farm payrolls in September added 254,000 jobs, significantly above the forecast of 140,000[8] - China's GDP growth rate for Q3 was recorded at 4.6%, slightly above the expected 4.5%[14] Group 2: Inflation and Monetary Policy - U.S. CPI in September showed a year-on-year increase of 2.4%, the lowest since February 2021[8] - The Federal Reserve initiated a rate cut of 50 basis points, lowering the target range to 4.75%-5.0%[8] - China's CPI in September increased by only 0.4%, indicating weak inflationary pressures[14] Group 3: Market Performance - Domestic equity markets outperformed international markets, with A-shares rising by 22.21% in September[19] - The South China commodity index recorded a gain of 4.60% in September, with all sectors showing positive returns[19] - The U.S. dollar index fell by 0.96% in September, marking three consecutive months of decline[19]