1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Macroeconomically, the upcoming tri - party meeting between the US, Russia, and Ukraine and the speech of Fed Chairman Powell at the Jackson Hole Annual Meeting are the focuses. The A - share market hit a new high in the past decade, and the bond market was under pressure. [2][3] - Precious metals: The prices of gold and silver are expected to remain volatile in the short term as the market awaits Fed policy guidance and the development of the US - Europe - Russia - Ukraine relations. [4][5] - Copper: The price of copper is expected to maintain a high - range oscillation in the short term, with the market focusing on Powell's stance and the tight supply of copper concentrates providing cost support. [6][7] - Aluminum: The price of aluminum is expected to be adjusted in a volatile manner due to the cooling of the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation and weak consumption in the off - season. [8] - Alumina: The supply pressure of alumina is expected to increase, and the futures price may move down with a fluctuating center. [10] - Zinc: The zinc price is expected to be weak and volatile due to continuous inventory accumulation and the strengthening of the US dollar. [11] - Lead: The lead price is expected to have a narrow - range oscillation due to weak supply and demand and high inventory. [12] - Tin: The tin price is expected to have a narrow - range oscillation due to the weak supply and demand situation. [13][14] - Industrial silicon: The price of industrial silicon is expected to be volatile, with the supply side showing a marginal relaxation and the demand side having limited transactions. [15][16] - Lithium carbonate: The lithium price may still rise slightly driven by sentiment, but the increase is expected to be limited. [17][18] - Nickel: The nickel price is expected to be volatile, with the market paying attention to the review progress of illegal nickel mines in Indonesia. [19] - Crude oil: The oil price is expected to remain volatile as the market needs to pay attention to the geopolitical situation. [20] - Soybean and rapeseed meal: The Dalian soybean meal may be strong in a volatile manner, with the US soybean having a good growth condition and the domestic near - term supply being sufficient. [21][22] - Palm oil: The palm oil may be strong in a volatile manner, with the export demand being strong and the production increase narrowing. [24][25] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Main Variety Views 3.1.1 Macro - Overseas: After the "Trump - Zelensky meeting", Trump called Putin to arrange a tri - party meeting. The market was calm, with the US dollar index rising to 98.1, the 10Y US Treasury yield rising to 4.33%, and the stock and commodity markets showing different trends. [2] - Domestic: The A - share market broke through the 2021 high of 3731 points, with the trading volume reaching 2.81 trillion yuan. The bond market was under pressure, and the 10Y and 30Y Treasury yields rose to 1.77% and 2.037% respectively. [3] 3.1.2 Precious Metals - On Monday, COMEX gold futures fell 0.14% to $3378.00 per ounce, and COMEX silver futures rose 0.24% to $38.07 per ounce. The market is waiting for Fed policy guidance and the development of the US - Europe - Russia - Ukraine relations. [4] 3.1.3 Copper - On Monday, the Shanghai copper main contract oscillated around 79000, and the LME copper fell slightly at night. The market is concerned about Powell's speech, and the probability of a September interest - rate cut has dropped to 84.6%. China's copper imports in July were 480,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 10%. [6] 3.1.4 Aluminum - On Monday, the Shanghai aluminum main contract closed at 20,595 yuan/ton, down 0.63%, and the LME aluminum closed at $2588.5 per ton, down 0.56%. The electrolytic aluminum inventory increased, and the market is waiting for Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole Annual Meeting. [8] 3.1.5 Alumina - On Monday, the alumina futures main contract closed at 3171 yuan/ton, down 1.12%. The supply pressure is expected to increase, and the inventory has risen significantly. [9][10] 3.1.6 Zinc - On Monday, the Shanghai zinc main contract was weak and volatile, and the LME zinc was also weak. The social inventory increased to 135,400 tons, and the zinc price is expected to be weak and volatile. [11] 3.1.7 Lead - On Monday, the Shanghai lead main contract had a narrow - range oscillation, and the LME lead was weak. The social inventory decreased slightly, and the lead price is expected to have a narrow - range oscillation due to weak supply and demand. [12] 3.1.8 Tin - On Monday, the Shanghai tin main contract had a narrow - range oscillation, and the LME tin was also narrow - range oscillating. The supply and demand are both weak, and the tin price is expected to have a narrow - range oscillation. [13][14] 3.1.9 Industrial Silicon - On Monday, the industrial silicon main contract was weakly oscillating. The supply side showed a marginal relaxation, and the demand side had limited transactions. The price is expected to be volatile. [15][16] 3.1.10 Lithium Carbonate - On Monday, the lithium carbonate opened higher and oscillated. The raw material prices rose, but the real - demand increment was less than the supply. The lithium price may rise slightly driven by sentiment, but the increase is limited. [17][18] 3.1.11 Nickel - On Monday, the nickel price oscillated. The nickel ore supply is expected to be loose, and the stainless - steel market is weak. The market is concerned about the review of illegal nickel mines in Indonesia. [19] 3.1.12 Crude Oil - On Monday, the crude oil oscillated. The tri - party meeting released positive signals, but the market still worried about the sanctions on Russian oil. The oil price is expected to remain volatile. [20] 3.1.13 Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - On Monday, the soybean meal and rapeseed meal futures rose. The US soybean had a good growth condition, and the Dalian soybean meal may be strong in a volatile manner. [21][22] 3.1.14 Palm Oil - On Monday, the palm oil futures rose. The Malaysian palm oil production increase in the first half of August narrowed, and the export demand was good. The palm oil may be strong in a volatile manner. [24][25] 3.2 Yesterday's Main Futures Market Closing Data - The data shows the closing prices, price changes, price change rates, trading volumes, and open interests of various futures contracts, including metals, agricultural products, and energy products. [26][29] 3.3 Industrial Data Perspective - The data presents the price changes, inventory changes, and other indicators of various industrial products from August 15 to August 18, including copper, nickel, zinc, lead, aluminum, alumina, tin, precious metals, steel, iron ore, coking coal, coke, and agricultural products. [30][32][34]

Report Title - The report is titled "Macro and Major Asset Semi-Annual Report: Loose Liquidity and Risk Appetite Resonance, A-shares Expected to Reach New Highs" [1] Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report Core Views - In the first half of 2025, under the impact of Trump's domestic and foreign policies, global major asset fluctuations intensified. Stocks performed the best, followed by bonds. Commodities were divided, with externally-driven varieties outperforming domestic-demand products. The currencies of the G2 countries were under pressure, with both the US dollar and the RMB weakening [2][3][8] - In the domestic market, equities (+5.83%) > bonds (+0.87%) > commodities (-2.09%) > RMB (-6.03%). A-shares' performance was centered around China's AI breakthroughs and Trump's tariff disruptions. AI利好 catalyzed the technology and growth sectors to lead in stages, boosting risk appetite. Tariff uncertainties dragged down the export chain, suppressing the valuation repair of the cyclical and manufacturing sectors. Bonds mainly fluctuated based on tight liquidity, tariff-induced risk aversion, and their gains significantly converged compared to 2024. The RMB appreciated against the US dollar and depreciated against non-US currencies. Commodities were divided, with precious metals shining and domestic-demand commodities such as black metals and industrial products remaining weak [3][8] - In the overseas market, bonds (+7.27%) > equities (+6.07%) > commodities (+5.96%) > US dollar (-10.79%). In the first half of the year, global risk appetite fluctuated significantly. Trump's tariff policies once triggered a sharp market shock, but the recession remained at the expected level. Global stock markets quickly recovered after a sharp decline, with the Hong Kong, German, and South Korean stock markets rising by over 20%. Global bonds generally rose, led by emerging markets and US bonds, while European bonds were weaker. Commodities generally rose slightly, led by livestock and oils, with metals and industrial raw materials having moderate increases. The US dollar index fell by over 10%, dragged down by cooling soft data, tariff impacts on credit, and doubts about the Fed's independence [3][8] - Looking ahead, A-shares are expected to reach new highs due to the continuation of loose global central bank liquidity and the approaching of the profit bottom. In the bond market, treasury bond yields may decline further but with weak odds. Gold prices are bullish in the medium to long term, supported by global loose liquidity, geopolitical risks, and anti-globalization. Copper prices are expected to rise as the global economy is expected to recover and the supply of concentrates is expected to tighten. Oil prices are expected to be weak in the second half of the year due to oversupply and weak demand [3] Summary by Directory 1. Major Asset Performance - In the first half of 2025, under the impact of Trump's domestic and foreign policies, global major asset fluctuations intensified. Stocks performed the best, followed by bonds. Commodities were divided, with externally-driven varieties outperforming domestic-demand products. The currencies of the G2 countries were under pressure, with both the US dollar and the RMB weakening [8] - In the domestic market, equities (+5.83%) > bonds (+0.87%) > commodities (-2.09%) > RMB (-6.03%). A-shares' performance was centered around China's AI breakthroughs and Trump's tariff disruptions. AI利好 catalyzed the technology and growth sectors to lead in stages, boosting risk appetite. Tariff uncertainties dragged down the export chain, suppressing the valuation repair of the cyclical and manufacturing sectors. Bonds mainly fluctuated based on tight liquidity, tariff-induced risk aversion, and their gains significantly converged compared to 2024. The RMB appreciated against the US dollar and depreciated against non-US currencies. Commodities were divided, with precious metals shining and domestic-demand commodities such as black metals and industrial products remaining weak [8] - In the overseas market, bonds (+7.27%) > equities (+6.07%) > commodities (+5.96%) > US dollar (-10.79%). In the first half of the year, global risk appetite fluctuated significantly. Trump's tariff policies once triggered a sharp market shock, but the recession remained at the expected level. Global stock markets quickly recovered after a sharp decline, with the Hong Kong, German, and South Korean stock markets rising by over 20%. Global bonds generally rose, led by emerging markets and US bonds, while European bonds were weaker. Commodities generally rose slightly, led by livestock and oils, with metals and industrial raw materials having moderate increases. The US dollar index fell by over 10%, dragged down by cooling soft data, tariff impacts on credit, and doubts about the Fed's independence [8] 2. Equity Market 2.1 A-shares - In the first half of 2025, A-shares performed well, with broad-based indices generally rising. The Beizheng 50, CSI 1000, and CSI 2000 led the gains, showing a significant structural market. The performance of large-cap blue-chip indices such as the SSE 50 and CSI 300 was relatively limited. Overall, the market fluctuated greatly in the first half of the year, and risk appetite fluctuated between "China's AI narrative" and "Trump's tariffs." The market generally trended upward, with a decent profit-making effect. The market can be roughly divided into four stages [13] - Stage 1 (January 1 - January 13): The market declined weakly due to a lack of economic data, weakening policy effects from the fourth quarter of 2024, and rising overseas uncertainties ahead of Trump's inauguration. During this period, most indices adjusted, with the ChiNext Index leading the decline and the growth sector performing weakly [16] - Stage 2 (January 14 - March 18): The market rose significantly as the strong expectations for China's AI industry outweighed the weak economic reality. The market's pessimistic sentiment was significantly repaired after the China-US presidential call in mid-January, and risk appetite recovered. The popularity of DeepSeek in late January triggered strong expectations for China's AI innovation, becoming the core driver of the market. The "strong expectations" for China's AI industry outweighed concerns about Trump's tariffs and the "weak reality" of economic data, driving the market's trading volume to an average of 1.8 trillion yuan and the margin trading balance to a 10-year high of 1.9 trillion yuan. During this period, most indices rose, with small-cap growth stocks such as the Beizheng 50 and CSI 2000 leading the gains [17] - Stage 3 (March 19 - April 7): Risk appetite declined as the market shifted from strong industry expectations to economic reality. The market's expectations for a Q1 reserve requirement ratio (RRR) cut and interest rate cut were disappointed, and the liquidity remained tight until the end of March. The 10-year treasury bond yield rose, and overseas liquidity tightened marginally, putting pressure on valuations. The market's trading volume declined. On April 7, Trump's announcement of "reciprocal tariffs" far exceeded market expectations, triggering a global risk-off sentiment. The A-share market tumbled after the Tomb-Sweeping Festival holiday, with the Shanghai Composite Index falling by more than 7% and thousands of stocks hitting the daily limit down [18][19] - Stage 4 (April 8 - June 30): The market gradually recovered as policy support and a stabilization of global risk appetite boosted investor confidence. Trump's decision to delay the implementation of reciprocal tariffs for 90 days helped to stabilize global risk appetite. In response to the US tariffs, the Chinese government quickly introduced a series of policies to support the economy and counter the US measures. The central bank injected liquidity through a stabilization fund, helping to restore market confidence. The market entered a structural recovery phase with strong support at the bottom [19] - Looking ahead to the second half of the year, A-shares still have upward momentum. On the earnings side, policy support is expected to improve the economic fundamentals, and the "earnings bottom" is approaching. On the valuation side, loose monetary policies at home and abroad are expected to continue, providing support for equity valuations. Policy support is expected to strengthen market expectations, and the A-share market is expected to reach new highs this year, breaking through the high set on September 24 last year. The market's performance will depend on the timing of the Fed's interest rate cuts and the recovery of domestic risk appetite [20][21][22] 3. Bond Market 3.1 Treasury Bonds - In the first half of 2025, the bond market entered an adjustment phase after a unilateral upward trend at the end of 2024. The market's pricing of the weak domestic economic momentum became more comprehensive, and tight liquidity, tariff policies, and the recovery of risk appetite became the core variables driving interest rate fluctuations. The bond market can be roughly divided into three stages [27] - Stage 1 (January 1 - March 19): Interest rates rose as the market's expectations for loose monetary policies were revised, liquidity tightened, and the stock market strengthened. In early 2025, the 10-year treasury bond yield quickly fell below 1.6% due to the continued impact of loose policy expectations at the end of 2024. Subsequently, tight liquidity, disappointed expectations for a Q1 RRR cut and interest rate cut, and the recovery of risk appetite driven by the revaluation of technology stocks led to a rebound in interest rates. The yield curve showed a "bear flattening" trend. By mid-March, the 10-year treasury bond yield approached 1.9%, reaching a new high for the year [30] - Stage 2 (March 20 - April 7): Interest rates declined as the central bank shifted its focus to supporting the economy, risk aversion increased due to Trump's tariff policies, and regulatory guidance was introduced. As economic data weakened and external risks increased, the central bank shifted its policy focus from "risk prevention" to "growth stabilization." The tight liquidity in the first quarter gradually eased, and the equity market entered an adjustment phase. The 10-year treasury bond yield declined to 1.8%. In early April, Trump's tariff policies far exceeded market expectations, triggering a global stock market crash. Risk aversion drove funds into the bond market, and the 10-year treasury bond yield dropped to 1.6% [30] - Stage 3 (April 8 - June 30): Interest rates fluctuated within a narrow range as the market balanced the recovery of risk appetite, the implementation of loose monetary policies, and the increase in bond supply. In the second quarter, the bond market generally fluctuated within a narrow range as the market weighed the recovery of risk appetite, RRR cuts and interest rate cuts, and the supply of government bonds. The market mainly focused on two factors: 1) The China-US trade talks in Geneva reached an unexpected consensus, boosting market sentiment. The resilience of exports in the second quarter also provided some support for the economy and put pressure on the bond market. 2) The central bank announced RRR cuts and interest rate cuts in early May, leading to a marginal easing of liquidity. Despite the large supply of government bonds, the central bank's open market operations showed a strong intention to support liquidity, providing some support for interest rates [31] - Looking ahead to the second half of the year, treasury bond yields may break through their previous lows, but the odds are weak. The economic fundamentals have not reversed, and the bond market is still likely to benefit from loose monetary policies. However, the recovery of risk appetite and the increasing attractiveness of risk assets may limit the downside potential of bond yields. The bond market may face some challenges in the second half of the year, including a potential increase in inflation expectations and the uncertainty of Trump's domestic and foreign policies [32][34][35] 4. Commodity Market 4.1 Gold - In the first half of 2025, the gold price continued its upward trend from last year, rising by more than 25%. The price increase was mainly driven by the risk aversion sentiment triggered by Trump's policies, increasing recession expectations, and doubts about the US dollar's credit. The gold market can be roughly divided into three stages [43] - Stage 1 (January 1 - April 2): The gold price rose as Trump's inauguration increased trade tensions, and weak US economic data and rising recession expectations drove investors to seek safe-haven assets. The US dollar index and the US treasury bond yield declined, and central banks around the world continued to increase their gold reserves, driving the gold price higher. During this period, the gold price trended upward [44][47] - Stage 2 (April 3 - April 21): The gold price reached a new high as Trump's tariff policies triggered a global risk-off sentiment and a crisis of confidence in the US dollar. The global market was shocked by Trump's announcement of "reciprocal tariffs," which far exceeded market expectations. The initial sell-off of gold due to liquidity shortages and panic was quickly reversed as investors sought the safe-haven properties of gold. The gold price reached a record high of over $3,500 per ounce on April 22 [47] - Stage 3 (April 22 - June 30): The gold price fluctuated within a narrow range as the market's risk appetite recovered, and geopolitical risks increased. The US government's decision to ease its tariff policies and the strong US economic data put pressure on the gold price. However, the escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East provided some support for the gold price. During this period, the gold price fluctuated between $3,175 and $3,450 per ounce [48] - Looking ahead to the second half of the year, the gold price is expected to continue its upward trend, supported by loose global liquidity, rising geopolitical risks, and the acceleration of anti-globalization. However, the narrowing of macro uncertainties and the increasing odds of a price correction may limit the upside potential of the gold price. The gold market may face some challenges in the second half of the year, including the implementation of Trump's tariff policies, the Fed's interest rate cuts, and the geopolitical situation in the Middle East [49] 4.2 Copper - In the first half of 2025, the copper price generally trended upward, with a brief correction in April due to Trump's tariff policies. The copper market can be roughly divided into three stages [51] - Stage 1 (January 1 - March 26): The copper price rose as the global manufacturing sector recovered, and the expectation of fiscal expansion in China and Europe supported the copper demand. The supply of copper concentrates tightened, and the spot treatment charge (TC) price reached a record low, putting upward pressure on the copper price. The expectation of copper tariffs and the US government's investigation into copper imports also contributed to the increase in the copper price [53] - Stage 2 (March 27 - April 9): The copper price declined as Trump's tariff policies triggered a global risk-off sentiment, and the demand for copper decreased. The copper price dropped by more than 20% in a short period, reaching its lowest level of the year [53] - Stage 3 (April 10 - June 30): The copper price recovered as the market's risk appetite improved, and the supply of copper concentrates continued to tighten. The decision to delay the implementation of reciprocal tariffs and the weakening of the US dollar supported the copper price. The supply-demand balance of the copper market remained tight, and the spot TC price continued to trade below $40 per ton, providing strong support for the copper price [54] - Looking ahead to the second half of the year, the copper price is expected to be supported by loose global monetary and fiscal policies and the tightening of the copper concentrate supply. The global central banks are still in the process of cutting interest rates, and the fiscal expansion plans of China, the US, and Europe are expected to boost the copper demand. The supply of copper concentrates is expected to remain tight, and the spot TC price is expected to stay at a low level, providing support for the copper price. Overall, the copper price is expected to trend upward in the second half of the year [54][55] 4.3 Crude Oil - In the first half of 2025, the crude oil price fluctuated significantly, mainly driven by geopolitical tensions and Trump's tariff policies. The supply-demand imbalance in the crude oil market put downward pressure on the oil price. The crude oil market can be roughly divided into five stages [59] - Stage 1 (January 1 - January 15): The oil price reached a new high for the year as the US government's sanctions on Russian oil and the tense situation in the Middle East increased the market's concerns about supply disruptions. The OPEC+ countries reaffirmed their commitment to the production cut agreement, and the cold weather in the US and Europe increased the demand for heating oil. The West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil price approached $80 per barrel [61] - Stage 2 (January 16 - March 10): The oil price declined as the market's concerns about the supply-demand imbalance increased, and the weak US economic data and Trump's tariff policies put pressure on the oil price. The OPEC+ countries postponed their planned production increase until April, but the increasing production from non-OPEC countries such as the US, Brazil, and Canada deepened the oversupply situation. The demand for oil was also weak due to the weak global economic growth and the increasing trade tensions. The oil price dropped by 16% from its high to around $65 per barrel [61] - Stage 3 (March 11 - March 31): The oil price fluctuated within a narrow range as the market balanced the expectation of an increase in oil supply and the recovery of the oil demand in Asia. The OPEC+ countries confirmed their plan to gradually exit the production cut agreement in April, and the increasing US crude oil inventory put pressure on the oil price. However, the strong economic data from China and the expectation of policy stimulus increased the demand for oil in Asia, providing some support for the oil price [62] - Stage 4 (April 1 - May 5): The oil price dropped sharply as the market's concerns about the supply-demand imbalance increased, and the weak global economic data and Trump's tariff policies put pressure on the oil price. The OPEC+ countries prematurely lifted some of the voluntary production cuts, and the increasing production from non-OPEC

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content Core Viewpoints - Last week, copper prices fluctuated at a high level. The main reason was that the unexpected increase in the US PPI slightly cooled the interest - rate cut expectation. The hawks and doves within the Fed have significant differences on whether sufficient interest - rate cuts are needed this year. Gradual and small - scale interest - rate cuts may still be the baseline scenario. Fundamentally, the accident - hit mine under Codelco is expected to lose about 20,000 - 30,000 tons of production, and the Panama project has no hope of resuming production this year. The global shortage of concentrates restricts the release of global refined copper production capacity. The inventory accumulation in the domestic off - season is limited, and the near - month structure has changed from flat to a slightly B structure [2]. - Overall, the general recovery of the US September interest - rate cut expectation, the continuous alleviation of global economic growth concerns after the implementation of tariffs, the good results of the Trump - Putin meeting that may promote US - Russia trade and boost the risk appetite of global capital markets, and China's anti - involution and steady - growth policies will effectively boost the demand for the non - ferrous metal market. However, the year - on - year growth rates of industrial added value and social retail sales in July were slightly lower than expected. Fundamentally, there are continuous disruptions at overseas mines, the inventory accumulation speed in the domestic off - season is slow, and no large amount of US copper has flowed out. It is expected that copper prices will maintain a high - level fluctuation in the short term [3][12] Summary by Directory Market Data - LME copper price on August 15 was $9,760.00/ton, down $8.00 (-0.08%) from August 8; COMEX copper price was 448.9 cents/pound, up 0.4 cents (0.09%); SHFE copper price was 79,060 yuan/ton, up 570 yuan (0.73%); international copper price was 70,180 yuan/ton, up 530 yuan (0.76%). The Shanghai - London ratio rose from 8.04 to 8.10, and the LME spot premium/discount was -$93.75/ton, down $24.20 (34.80%) [4]. - As of August 15, LME inventory was 155,800 tons, down 50 tons (-0.03%); COMEX inventory was 267,195 short tons, up 3,055 short tons (1.16%); SHFE inventory was 86,343 tons, up 4,428 tons (5.41%); Shanghai bonded - area inventory was 80,600 tons, up 5,100 tons (6.75%); total inventory was 589,938 tons, up 12,533 tons (2.17%) [7] Market Analysis and Outlook - Last week, copper prices fluctuated at a high level due to the unexpected increase in the US PPI cooling the interest - rate cut expectation. Fundamentally, Codelco's accident - hit mine is expected to lose about 20,000 - 30,000 tons of production, and the Panama project has no hope of resuming production this year. The global shortage of concentrates restricts the release of global refined copper production capacity, and the domestic off - season inventory accumulation is limited [8]. - As of August 15, the total inventory of LME, COMEX, SHFE, and Shanghai bonded area rose to 589,000 tons, and the global inventory continued to rebound. The LME copper inventory was basically flat, and the cancelled warrant ratio remained at 7.4%; the SHFE inventory increased slightly by 4,000 tons, and the inventory accumulation in the off - season was relatively limited; the Shanghai bonded - area inventory increased by 5,000 tons. The Shanghai - London ratio rose to 8.1 [8]. - In the macro - aspect, the US July PPI increased by 0.9% year - on - year and month - on - month, exceeding market expectations. The core PPI rose to 3.7%, much higher than the previous value of 2.6%. After the data was released, the September interest - rate cut expectation slightly declined. There are significant differences within the Fed on whether sufficient interest - rate cuts are needed this year [9][10]. - In terms of supply and demand, most areas of Codelco's Teniente project have resumed production, but the affected area is a new area for capacity improvement in the next 3 - 5 years. The Panama copper mine has basically no hope of resuming production this year. The domestic spot TC has slightly rebounded to -$38/ton, and the mine - end interference rate is still rising. In July, China's electrolytic copper production was 1.175 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 14.2%. However, affected by the increasingly tight supply of cold materials, non - CSPT smelters have started to slightly reduce production. From the demand side, the construction of power grid investment projects has slightly weakened, dragging down the operating rate of cable enterprises. The overall domestic demand has slightly decelerated month - on - month but still has resilience year - on - year [11] Industry News - Codelco has restarted the underground mining and processing operations of its EI Teniente mine in Chile. Eight underground areas that were evaluated as safe by the mining and labor departments resumed production last weekend, and the smelter also restarted. Four other mining areas near the accident site on July 31 are still closed, and relevant investigations are underway. The eight areas that resumed production account for about 82% of the total production [13]. - Chilean state - owned mining enterprise ENAMI has officially launched an investment recruitment plan to attract investors for a $1.7 - billion smelter. After the renovation, the annual processing capacity of the smelter will reach 850,000 tons of copper concentrates, and the annual production capacity will be 240,000 tons of copper cathodes [14]. - The official data shows that Zambia's copper production in the second quarter declined, posing a risk to the goal of increasing copper production to 1 million tons this year. If the first - quarter production is not revised, the second - quarter production was about 215,644 tons, a quarter - on - quarter decrease of about 4%. The production in the second quarter was affected by problems at four producers [15] Relevant Charts - The report provides multiple charts, including the price trends of SHFE copper and LME copper, LME copper inventory, global visible inventory, SHFE and bonded - area inventory, LME inventory and cancelled warrants, COMEX inventory and cancelled warrants, SHFE copper basis, refined - scrap copper price difference, LME copper premium/discount, SHFE copper inter - period spread, copper import profit and loss, copper concentrate spot TC, COMEX copper non - commercial net long position ratio, and LME copper investment fund net position change [16][22][24][28][32]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View - Market expectations for the Fed's interest rate cuts are inconsistent, and market risk appetite lacks sustainability. The fundamentals continue to show a pattern of a slight increase in supply but lower-than-expected demand. High inventory levels put pressure on lead prices, while the relatively stable supply-demand gap at the cost end provides support. There are few new contradictions in the short term, and lead prices are expected to fluctuate within a narrow range, with the integer resistance level above remaining effective [4][9]. 3. Summary by Section Transaction Data | Contract | 8/8 | 8/15 | Change | Unit | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | SHFE Lead | 16,845 | 16,850 | 5 | Yuan/ton | | LME Lead | 2,003.5 | 1,981 | -22.5 | US dollars/ton | | SHFE - LME Ratio | 8.41 | 8.51 | 0.10 | - | | SHFE Inventory | 62,334 | 64,844 | 2,510 | Tons | | LME Inventory | 268,375 | 261,100 | -7,275 | Tons | | Social Inventory | 3.59 | 3.94 | 0.35 | Ten thousand tons | | Spot Premium | -150 | -155 | -5 | Yuan/ton | [5] Market Review - The price of the main SHFE lead contract PB2509 declined under pressure last week. The price rebounded but was blocked by the integer resistance level and then fell, closing at 16,850 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 0.03%. LME lead first rose and then fell, closing at 1,981 US dollars/ton, with a weekly decline of 1.12% [6]. - In the spot market, as of August 15, the price of lead in the Shanghai and Jiangsu - Zhejiang markets showed a downward trend. The inventory of LME decreased, while the SHFE inventory and social inventory increased. The delivery of the current - month contract led to an increase in inventory [7]. Industry News - As of August 15, the average domestic lead concentrate processing fee remained unchanged, while the average import ore processing fee decreased by 15 US dollars/ton compared to the previous period [10]. - Some lead - smelting enterprises in Henan may face air - quality environmental protection emergency control from August 26 to September 3, which may restrict vehicle transportation [10]. Related Charts The report provides multiple charts, including SHFE and LME lead prices, SHFE - LME ratios, inventory levels, lead price premiums and discounts, price differences between primary and secondary lead, waste battery prices, secondary lead enterprise profits, lead ore processing fees, electrolytic lead and secondary refined lead production, lead ingot social inventory, and refined lead import profit and loss [12][13][15][18][19][21][23][25].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content 2. Core View of the Report - Last week, industrial silicon showed a strong and volatile trend, mainly due to the strong price - holding atmosphere in each link of the photovoltaic industry chain. The polysilicon market had a lot of "rumors", but market transactions were relatively limited, and the anti - involution sentiment continued to ferment. It is expected that the futures price will maintain a volatile and strong operation in the short term [2][3][6]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Data | Contract | 8/15 Price | 8/8 Price | Change | Change Rate | Unit | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Industrial silicon main contract | 8805.00 | 8710.00 | 95.00 | 1.09% | Yuan/ton | | Oxygen - passing 553 spot | 9400.00 | 9250.00 | 150.00 | 1.62% | Yuan/ton | | Non - oxygen - passing 553 spot | 9200.00 | 9100.00 | 100.00 | 1.10% | Yuan/ton | | 421 spot | 9750.00 | 9700.00 | 50.00 | 0.52% | Yuan/ton | | 3303 spot | 9600.00 | 9500.00 | 100.00 | 1.05% | Yuan/ton | | Silicone DMC spot | 11400.00 | 12150.00 | - 750.00 | - 6.17% | Yuan/ton | | Polysilicon dense material spot | 46.00 | 44.00 | 2.00 | 4.55% | Yuan/ton | | Industrial silicon social inventory | 54.5 | 54.7 | - 0.2 | - 0.37% | 10,000 tons | [4] 3.2 Market Analysis and Outlook - **Supply side**: The operating rate in Xinjiang rose to 57%, and the operating rates in Sichuan and Yunnan increased month - on - month, showing a marginally loose supply situation. As of August 14, the weekly output of industrial silicon was 84,700 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.5% and a year - on - year decrease of 16.3%. The number of open furnaces in the three major production areas remained at 280, and the overall open - furnace rate slightly rose to 35.2% [6][7][8]. - **Demand side**: Polysilicon enterprises had a strong price - holding atmosphere, but transactions were limited near the end of the signing period. The inventory in the silicon wafer market decreased significantly, and most integrated enterprises tended to reduce production. Photovoltaic cell manufacturers mainly executed existing orders, and there might be resistance to the increase in domestic export orders. The component end showed a weak and volatile trend, and terminal demand was poor [2][6][8]. - **Inventory**: As of August 15, the national social inventory of industrial silicon decreased to 545,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2,000 tons. The warehouse receipt inventory of the Guangzhou Futures Exchange continued to rise to 50,599 lots, equivalent to 253,000 tons [9]. 3.3 Industry News - The automotive and photovoltaic industries held symposiums against disorderly competition. In 2024, the production capacity of Chinese chip manufacturers increased by 15%. In 2025, domestic wafer foundries will be the main force in the increase of mature - process production capacity, but price trends will be suppressed. Some enterprises are exploring ways to break through the low - level competition dilemma, such as Ruixin Micro focusing on basic capabilities and high - end markets [11]. - In the second half of 2025, the DDR4 market was in short supply, and prices rose strongly. The tight supply and demand in the DDR market also pushed up the contract price of Mobile DRAM. The third - quarter increase in LPDDR4X was the largest in a single quarter in the past decade. The demand for semiconductor hardware was growing steadily, and the storage sector was expected to continue to rise in the third and fourth quarters [12]. 3.4 Relevant Charts - The report provides 10 charts, including those related to industrial silicon production, export volume, social inventory, warehouse receipt inventory, production in major production areas, and prices of various products such as organic silicon DMC, polysilicon, and industrial silicon [15][18].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - Last week, the CBOT November soybean contract rose 56.25 to close at 1042.75 cents per bushel, a 5.7% increase; the soybean meal 09 contract rose 38 to close at 3083 yuan per ton, a 1.25% increase; the South China soybean meal spot price rose 60 to close at 2980 yuan per ton, a 2.05% increase; the rapeseed meal 09 contract fell 124 to close at 2649 yuan per ton; the Guangxi rapeseed meal spot price fell 90 to close at 2530 yuan per ton, a 3.44% decrease [4]. - The US soybeans rebounded significantly from the weekly low. The main reasons were that the August report unexpectedly cut the area by 2.5 million acres, tightening the supply, which was bullish; the US soybeans were in the critical pod - setting period, and the recent weather forecast turned dry, which might have an adverse impact on crop growth; with the low - price advantage of US soybeans, other countries' procurement of new crops exceeded expectations; the crushing demand in July was strong, providing support. The soybean meal fluctuated and closed higher, with increased volatility. The influencing factors included Trump's post at the beginning of the week hoping that China would increase US soybean imports, the domestic market declined and then rebounded under the emotional impact; the bullish support of the USDA report, combined with the anti - dumping investigation of Canadian rapeseed, tightened the long - term supply expectation [4]. - The cumulative precipitation in the US soybean producing areas in the next two weeks is lower than the average, which needs continuous attention. The USDA report cut the area and significantly raised the yield per unit. If the precipitation in the producing areas continues to be low, the yield per unit may be revised down. The US biodiesel policy is expanding, and the crushing demand is expected to remain strong, still supporting the price. The domestic short - term soybean and soybean meal supply is still available, and feed enterprises mainly replenish inventory on a rolling basis. The short - term Dalian soybean meal may fluctuate and be slightly stronger [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Data | Contract | 8/15 | 8/8 | Change | Change Rate | Unit | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | CBOT Soybean | 1042.75 | 986.50 | 56.25 | 5.70% | Cents/Bushel | | CNF Import Price: Brazil | 489.00 | 485.00 | 4.00 | 0.82% | US dollars/ton | | CNF Import Price: US Gulf | 456.00 | 443.00 | 13.00 | 2.93% | US dollars/ton | | Brazilian Soybean Crushing Profit on the Futures Market | - 54.34 | - 42.65 | - 11.69 | - | Yuan/ton | | DCE Soybean Meal | 3083.00 | 3045.00 | 38.00 | 1.25% | Yuan/ton | | CZCE Rapeseed Meal | 2649.00 | 2773.00 | - 124.00 | - 4.47% | Yuan/ton | | Soybean Meal - Rapeseed Meal Spread | 434.00 | 272.00 | 162.00 | - | Yuan/ton | | Spot Price: East China | 3020.00 | 2940.00 | 80.00 | 2.72% | Yuan/ton | | Spot Price: South China | 2980.00 | 2920.00 | 60.00 | 2.05% | Yuan/ton | | Spot - Futures Spread: South China | - 103.00 | - 125.00 | 22.00 | - | Yuan/ton | [5] Market Analysis and Outlook - The US soybeans rebounded significantly from the weekly low. The main reasons were the unexpected cut in area in the August report, the dry weather forecast during the pod - setting period, the strong procurement of new crops by other countries, and the strong crushing demand in July. The soybean meal fluctuated and closed higher, influenced by Trump's post, the bullish USDA report, and the anti - dumping investigation of Canadian rapeseed. The rapeseed meal showed a pattern of near - term weakness and long - term strength [8]. - The August USDA report was overall bullish, with a cut in the 2025/2026 US soybean planting area, an increase in yield per unit, a decrease in overall production, a decrease in new - crop export demand, an increase in old - crop export demand, and a decline in the 2025/2026 ending inventory. The US soybean growth indicators were in line with expectations, and about 3% of the planting area was affected by drought. The future 15 - day precipitation in the producing areas is expected to be lower than the average [9]. - As of the week of August 7, 2025, the US soybean export net sales in the current market year were - 378,000 tons, and the cumulative export sales in the 2024/2025 were 5.112 million tons, which had completed the USDA target. The new - crop export net sales in the 2025/2026 were 1.133 million tons, and the cumulative sales were 471,000 tons. China had not purchased new - crop US soybeans. The US soybean crushing profit and related prices showed certain changes, and the NOPA members' soybean crushing volume in July increased compared with June and July 2024. Brazil's August soybean and soybean meal export volume forecasts were raised [10]. - As of the week of August 8, 2025, the main oil mills' soybean inventory increased, the soybean meal inventory decreased, the unexecuted contracts decreased, and the national port soybean inventory increased. As of the week of August 15, 2025, the national soybean meal daily average trading volume decreased, the daily average pick - up volume was stable, the main oil mills' crushing volume increased, and the feed enterprises' soybean meal inventory days were stable [12]. - The US soybean producing area's precipitation needs continuous attention. The US biodiesel policy expansion will support the price. The domestic short - term supply is available, and the long - term supply is expected to be tight. The short - term Dalian soybean meal may fluctuate and be slightly stronger [13]. Industry News - In June 2025, Brazilian factories processed 4.55 million tons of soybeans, produced 3.47 million tons of soybean meal and 930,000 tons of soybean oil, with ending inventories of 23.28 million tons of soybeans, 2.68 million tons of soybean meal, and 480,000 tons of soybean oil [14]. - Brazil's soybean exports in the first week of August were 2.77445327 million tons, with a daily average export volume 27% higher than that in August last year. Canada's June 2025 rapeseed, rapeseed oil, and rapeseed meal exports were 651,106 tons, 223,217 tons, and 459,023 tons respectively [14]. - As of August 1, the US soybean, corn, and wheat unplanted areas were 1.199 million acres, 1.818 million acres, and 277,000 acres respectively. As of August 10, the EU's 2025/26 palm oil, soybean, soybean meal, and rapeseed imports decreased compared with last year [15]. - The predicted 2024/25 Brazilian soybean production, planting area, and yield per unit increased compared with the previous year and the previous forecast. The Brazilian 2024/25 soybean production, crushing volume, export, soybean oil production, and soybean meal production forecasts were raised [16]. - Argentina's 2024/25 soybean production was expected to be 50.2 million tons, a 2% upward revision [17]. Relevant Charts The report provides multiple charts, including the US soybean continuous contract trend, Brazilian soybean CNF to - shore price, RMB spot exchange rate trend, regional crushing profit, soybean meal main contract trend, etc., to visually show the market conditions of soybeans and soybean meal [19][25][28]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Macro aspect: During the reporting period, macro expectations fluctuated. At the beginning of the week, the market's expectation of three Fed rate cuts within the year significantly increased, with a potential rate cut of up to 175bp by the end of 2026. However, after the PPI data was released at the end of the week, the market reversed its assessment of inflation risks, and Fed officials released hawkish statements, leading to repeated macro expectations [3]. - Fundamental aspect: Overseas nickel ore supply is becoming more abundant, but there are no obvious signs of price decline. Ferronickel prices are rising, and ferronickel plant profits are recovering. However, stainless steel lacks upward momentum, and resource circulation is poor, resulting in weak ferronickel consumption. The nickel sulfate market remains hot, but terminal consumption is weak, and the sustainability of the market's heat is questionable. The spot market for pure nickel is sluggish, with strong downstream wait - and - see sentiment, and stable fluctuations in premiums and discounts [3]. - Future outlook: High inflation and weak employment may lead to repeated swings in rate - cut expectations, causing nickel prices to fluctuate. High tariffs are increasing upstream inflation pressure, and rising PPI may be transmitted to CPI. At the same time, weak non - farm data and rising unemployment may slow down total demand. The market's expectations for Fed monetary policy may swing between inflation control and employment stability. In the industry, stainless steel prices are falling after a rise, and new energy vehicle consumption growth has turned negative. Supply is expected to be stable, and there is an expectation of a weakening in the ore end, but it has not materialized. Overall, nickel prices will fluctuate under macro - level drivers [3][11]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - Macro: As of August 9, the initial jobless claims were 224,000, lower than the expected 228,000. The US PPI annual rate in July was 3.3%, higher than the expected 2.5%. The monthly PPI in July increased by 0.9%, much higher than the expected 0.2%. At the beginning of the week, the US Treasury Secretary's remarks boosted rate - cut expectations, while at the end of the week, hawkish statements were released due to inflation concerns [5]. - Nickel ore: The FOB price of 1.5% laterite nickel ore in the Philippines dropped from $51/wet ton to $50/wet ton, while the domestic FOB price of 1.5% laterite nickel ore in Indonesia rose from $37.55/wet ton to $37.75/wet ton. Although the supply of nickel ore is expected to be more abundant, the price of Indonesian nickel ore remains firm [5]. - Pure nickel: In July, domestic monthly production capacity decreased slightly by 400 tons to 53,699 tons, while smelter production plans increased slightly month - on - month. In July, electrolytic nickel production was 32,800 tons, an increase of about 1,000 tons from the previous month, and the operating rate was 61.08%, up about 1.86 percentage points. In June, domestic electrolytic nickel exports decreased by 5.66% year - on - year and 3,830 tons month - on - month, while imports increased by 119.71% year - on - year. As of August 14, the export profit of nickel in China was - $6.68/ton. Overall, import resources are stable, but export profits are shrinking, and smelting supply remains high [6]. - Ferronickel: The price of high - nickel pig iron (10% - 12%) rose from 912 yuan/nickel point to 918.5 yuan/nickel point. In July, China's ferronickel production was about 24,540 metal tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.44%. In June, domestic ferronickel imports were about 1.0414 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 50.05%. Imports from Indonesia were about 1.0177 million tons, a significant month - on - month increase. In July, Indonesia's ferronickel production was about 134,400 tons, a year - on - year increase of 28.14% and a month - on - month decrease of 1.73%. As of July 31, the physical ton inventory of ferronickel was 284,900 tons, an increase of about 31,000 tons from the previous period [7]. - Stainless steel: In July, the production plan for 300 - series stainless steel in China was about 1.74 million tons, an increase of about 15 tons compared to the same period last year and unchanged month - on - month. Although stainless steel prices have rebounded, downstream demand is weak, and holders are actively reducing prices to sell. The recovery space for ferronickel is limited due to weak consumption [8]. - Nickel sulfate: The price of battery - grade nickel sulfate rose from 27,440 yuan/ton to 27,530 yuan/ton, while the price of electroplating - grade nickel sulfate remained at 28,000 yuan/ton. In July, the metal output of nickel sulfate was about 29,084 tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.77% and a month - on - month increase of 17.3%. The output of ternary materials in July increased to about 68,600 tons, a year - on - year increase of 16.7% and a month - on - month increase of 5.8%. As of August 8, the downstream inventory days of nickel sulfate increased to 11 days, while the upstream inventory days remained at about 6 days. The spot market for nickel sulfate is hot, but price increases are mainly cost - driven, and production profitability remains negative overall [8]. - New energy: From August 1 - 10, the retail sales of the national passenger car market were 452,000 vehicles, a 4% year - on - year decrease and a 6% month - on - month increase. The retail sales of the national new energy passenger car market were 262,000 vehicles, a 6% year - on - year and month - on - month increase, with a retail penetration rate of 57.9%. The new energy market is also showing signs of weakness, and the consumption in August is facing high - base pressure. Although subsidy policies may boost consumption, the core driving force for consumption lies in employment and income [9]. - Inventory: The current total social inventory of pure nickel in six locations is 41,891 tons, a decrease of 1,319 tons from the previous period. The SHFE inventory is 22,141 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1,418 tons. The LME nickel inventory is 211,662 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 570 tons. The total inventory of the two major global exchanges is 233,803 tons, a month - on - month increase of 848 tons [10]. 3.2 Industry News - Winshear Gold Corp. has signed an option agreement for the Portsoy nickel - copper - cobalt project in Scotland. If the agreement is approved, Winshear will obtain 100% equity in the project, covering 250 square kilometers. Winshear promises to invest £3 million in 5 years and issue 6.5 million shares to Peak Nickel. Peak Nickel will retain a 1% NSR with a maximum limit of £10 million and may receive a 10% share of the proceeds if the project is acquired by a third party [12]. - Lifezone Metals has obtained a $60 million bridge loan for its Kabanga nickel project in Tanzania. The Kabanga project is one of the largest and highest - grade undeveloped nickel sulfide projects in the world, containing over 2 million tons of battery - grade metal resources and significant amounts of copper and cobalt [12]. - The nickel industry in Indonesia is facing multiple challenges, including regulatory pressure, ESG compliance requirements, and the need to increase downstream added value. Rising costs such as royalties, reclamation deposits, and the upcoming global minimum tax may force some smelters to shut down. The APNI has developed national ESG parameters by integrating 57 regulations from six ministries with international standards [12]. 3.3 Related Charts - The report provides multiple charts, including those showing the trends of domestic and international nickel prices, spot premiums and discounts, LME0 - 3 nickel premiums and discounts, nickel domestic - to - foreign ratios, nickel futures inventory, nickel ore port inventory, high - nickel iron prices, 300 - series stainless steel prices, and stainless steel inventory [14][16].

Report Title and Date - The report is titled "Palm Oil Weekly Report" and dated August 18, 2025 [1][3] Market Data - BMD Malaysian palm oil main contract rose 224 to close at 4,478 ringgit/ton, a 5.27% increase; palm oil 09 contract rose 414 to close at 9,394 yuan/ton, a 4.61% increase; soybean oil 09 contract rose 162 to close at 8,562 yuan/ton, a 1.93% increase; rapeseed oil 09 contract rose 233 to close at 9,807 yuan/ton, a 2.43% increase; CBOT US soybean oil main contract rose 0.79 to close at 53.22 cents/pound, a 1.51% increase; ICE canola active contract fell 9.5 to close at 660.5 Canadian dollars/ton, a 1.42% decrease [4][5][7] - The spot price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangzhou, Guangdong rose 270 to 9,300 yuan/ton, a 2.99% increase; the spot price of first - grade soybean oil in Rizhao rose 110 to 8,600 yuan/ton, a 1.30% increase; the spot price of imported third - grade rapeseed oil in Zhangjiagang, Jiangsu rose 230 to 9,900 yuan/ton, a 2.38% increase [5] - The futures spread between soybean oil and palm oil decreased by 252 to - 832 yuan/ton, and the futures spread between rapeseed oil and palm oil decreased by 181 to 413 yuan/ton [5] Market Analysis and Outlook Market Performance - The domestic oil sector fluctuated and rose, with palm oil showing strength and rapeseed oil rising and then falling under policy influence. The long - term expansion of biodiesel policies in Indonesia and the US supports the long - term demand for soybean and palm oil. Rapeseed oil has a global supply, and policies may change the trade pattern, with relatively weak demand growth expectations compared to soybean and palm oil, but there is an expectation of tightening domestic long - term supply [4][8] MPOB Report - In July, Malaysia's palm oil ending inventory increased 4.02% to 2.113 million tons, lower than the market expectation of 2.25 million tons. Production increased 7.09% to 1.812 million tons, exports increased 3.82% to 1.309 million tons, imports decreased 12.82% to 61,000 tons, and domestic consumption increased 6.63% to 483,000 tons [8] US Department of Agriculture Report - The US Department of Agriculture's August oilseed report shows that the global palm oil production in the 2025/26 season is expected to be 80.736 million tons, unchanged from last month's estimate; the ending inventory is expected to be 15.034 million tons, a downward revision of 4,000 tons from last month's estimate; and exports are expected to be 46.163 million tons, unchanged from last month's estimate. Indonesia's palm oil exports are expected to be 24 million tons, and Malaysia's are expected to be 16.1 million tons, both unchanged from last month's estimates [9][10] Other Data - From August 1 - 5, 2025, Malaysia's palm oil yield per unit decreased 19.32% month - on - month, the oil extraction rate increased 0.39% month - on - month, and production decreased 17.27% month - on - month. From August 1 - 15, Malaysia's palm oil exports increased significantly compared to the previous period [10] - India's palm oil imports in July were 855,695 tons, down from 955,683 tons in June; sunflower oil imports were 200,010 tons, down from 216,141 tons in June; total vegetable oil imports were 1.579041 million tons, up from 1.549825 million tons in June; and soybean oil imports were 492,336 tons, up from 359,504 tons in June [11] - As of the week of August 8, 2025, the inventory of the three major oils in key domestic regions was 2.3967 million tons, an increase of 35,600 tons from last week and 284,700 tons from the same period last year. As of the week of August 15, 2025, the weekly average daily trading volume of soybean oil in key domestic regions was 27,540 tons, down from 30,880 tons the previous week; the weekly average daily trading volume of palm oil was 690 tons, up from 437 tons the previous week [12] Market Outlook - Macroscopically, the US - Russia presidential meeting ended, and the negotiation process may be difficult. The US retail sales in July increased 0.5% month - on - month, consumer demand remains resilient, the US dollar index fluctuates, and oil prices fluctuate within a narrow range. Fundamentally, Malaysia's export demand has increased significantly, Indonesia's B40 policy is being implemented with low inventory, and Malaysia's inventory build - up in July was lower than expected. In the short term, palm oil may fluctuate strongly [4][13] Industry News - Indonesia's trade authorities are asking palm oil producers to increase local market sales under the "Domestic Market Obligation (DMO)" plan to lower prices, with a monthly DMO level of 175,000 tons by the end of the year [14] - Analysts expect Malaysia's palm oil inventory to remain high in the near term. RHB Investment Bank believes that production will increase before the peak season, demand will improve, inventory will continue to increase above 2 million tons, palm oil prices will decline in Q3 and rise in Q4. Maybank Investment Bank also expects higher palm oil production in Malaysia and Indonesia in 2025 [15] - Indian traders estimate that in the 2024/25 season, soybean oil imports may increase 60% to 5.5 million tons, palm oil imports may decrease 13.5% to 7.8 million tons, sunflower oil imports may decrease 20% to 2.8 million tons, and total edible oil imports may increase 1% to 16.1 million tons [15] - Indonesia has saved at least $3.68 billion in foreign exchange this year through the use of palm - based biodiesel. As of June, 6.8 million kiloliters of B40 biodiesel have been distributed, and the goal of distributing 13.5 million kiloliters in 2025 is half - completed [16] Related Charts - The report includes charts on the price trends of Malaysian palm oil, US soybean oil, the three major oils, palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil in both futures and spot markets, as well as charts on inventory, production, and export volume of palm oil in Malaysia and Indonesia, and the commercial inventory of the three major oils in China [17][19][22]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week, the main contract price of Shanghai zinc futures fluctuated slightly. Macroeconomically, the extension of Sino - US tariffs, the moderate growth of US CPI but the unexpected increase in PPI, and the changing expectations of the Fed's interest rate cut in September led to the stabilization of the US dollar. In China, the financial and economic data in July were weak, indicating a slow economic recovery, although the new fiscal policies for personal consumption loan subsidies were helpful for economic repair [3][12]. - Fundamentally, the temporary shutdown of Nexa's mines had no substantial impact on production. The recovery of zinc concentrates was smooth, and the processing fees improved, boosting refinery profits and maintaining a high supply of refined zinc. On the demand side, the approaching military parade in early September affected the black - metal industry, with some stocking behaviors. The start - up rates of different downstream industries varied. Overseas, LME continued to reduce inventories, which supported zinc prices [4][12][13]. - Overall, the fundamental contradiction is concentrated overseas. The LME inventory reduction strongly supports zinc prices, but the repeated interest - rate cut expectations and the digestion of the inventory - reduction benefits limit the upside of zinc prices. Considering the uncertainty of the Russia - Ukraine situation and the upcoming speech by Powell, zinc prices are expected to fluctuate this week [4][13]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Transaction Data | Contract | 8/8 | 8/15 | Change | Unit | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | SHFE Zinc | 22515 | 22505 | - 10 | Yuan/ton | | LME Zinc | 2834 | 2796.5 | - 37.5 | US dollars/ton | | SHFE - LME Ratio | 7.94 | 8.05 | 0.10 | | | SHFE Inventory | 65917 | 76803 | 10886 | Tons | | LME Inventory | 81500 | 76325 | - 5175 | Tons | | Social Inventory | 11.69 | 10.37 | - 1.32 | Ten thousand tons | | Spot Premium | - 30 | - 50 | - 20 | Yuan/ton | [5] 3.2 Market Review - The main contract of Shanghai zinc (ZN2510) first rose and then fell last week. Market risk appetite changed with interest - rate cut expectations. The US dollar first fell and then rose, and zinc prices followed a similar trend. Eventually, it closed at 22505 yuan/ton, with a weekly decline of 0.04%. LME zinc fluctuated sideways, supported by continuous low - level inventory reduction but restricted by the rebound of the US dollar, closing at 2796.5 US dollars/ton, with a weekly decline of 1.32% [6]. - In the spot market as of August 15, prices in different regions varied, with downstream demand mainly for rigid needs, and spot transactions were mostly among traders, with a slight spot discount [7]. - In terms of inventory, as of August 15, LME zinc inventory decreased by 5175 tons, while SHFE inventory increased by 10886 tons. As of August 14, social inventory increased by 1.60 million tons compared with last Thursday, mainly due to low downstream提货 during the off - season and the impact of the upcoming military parade in Tianjin [8]. - Macroeconomically, in the US, the CPI in July increased moderately, but the PPI growth exceeded expectations. There were different views among Fed officials on interest - rate cuts. Sino - US tariffs were extended for 90 days. In China, the financial data in July were weak, but new fiscal policies for personal consumption loan subsidies were introduced [9][10][11]. 3.3 Industry News - As of August 15, the average weekly domestic TC price of SMM Zn50 remained unchanged at 3900 yuan/metal ton, and the SMM imported zinc concentrate index rose by 8.05 US dollars/dry ton to 90.3 US dollars/dry ton [14]. - According to 29Metals' second - quarter report, its zinc concentrate production in the second quarter was 12,300 tons, a 28% decrease from the previous quarter, mainly due to the decrease in zinc grade and recovery rate. Its production guidance for 2025 is 60,000 - 70,000 tons [14]. - On August 12, Nexa Resources' Cerro Pasco mining complex was partially shut down due to illegal blockades, but it had no substantial impact on production, and the production guidance remained unchanged [15].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The uncertainty and consistent expectations in the macro - environment remain weak, and market sentiment is easily swayed by changes in interest - rate hike expectations. The economic downturn risk caused by tariffs may also dominate the market at any time, with the long and short sentiments expected to switch back and forth, and the macro - impact volatility remaining large. On the fundamental side, the supply is basically stable, the consumption end is at the transition point between peak and off - peak seasons, the bearish expectations for future consumption are weakening, and the accumulation of social inventory is slowing down. Overall, the market has both long and short factors, and aluminum prices are expected to continue to fluctuate [3][8] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Transaction Data - The price of LME Aluminum 3 - month decreased by 12.0 yuan/ton from 2615 on August 8, 2025, to 2603 on August 15, 2025. The SHFE Aluminum Continuous Three increased by 95.0 dollars/ton from 20610 to 20705 during the same period. The Shanghai - London aluminum ratio rose by 0.1 to 8.0. The LME spot premium increased by 4.1 dollars/ton to 1.79. The LME aluminum inventory increased by 8975.0 tons to 479550 tons. The SHFE aluminum warehouse - receipt inventory increased by 21592.0 tons. The spot average price rose by 104.0 yuan/ton, and the spot premium increased by 50.0 yuan/ton. The South Reserve spot average price increased by 56.0 yuan/ton, and the Shanghai - Guangdong price difference increased by 48.0 yuan/ton. The electrolytic aluminum theoretical average cost decreased by 5.8 yuan/ton, while the electrolytic aluminum weekly average profit increased by 109.8 yuan/ton [4] 3.2 Market Review - The weekly average price of the spot market was 20694 yuan/ton, up 104 yuan/ton from last week; the South Reserve spot weekly average price was 20652 yuan/ton, up 56 yuan/ton from last week. In the macro - aspect, the Sino - US trade negotiation made progress, and the market's expectation of the Fed's interest - rate cut first increased and then decreased. In China, the social financing scale and RMB loans increased in the first seven months of this year. The growth rate of industrial added value in July was 5.7%, and the service industry production index was 5.8%. The consumption and investment growth rates on the demand side declined. The year - on - year growth rate of social retail sales in July was 3.7%. The export year - on - year growth rate was 7.2%. On the consumption side, the operating rate of the domestic downstream aluminum processing industry increased by 0.8 percentage points to 59.5%. In terms of inventory, the electrolytic aluminum ingot inventory was 58.8 tons, up 2.4 tons from last Thursday, and the aluminum rod inventory was 13.85 tons, down 0.5 tons from last Thursday [5][6][7] 3.3 Market Outlook - The macro - environment has high uncertainty, and market sentiment is easily affected by interest - rate hike expectations. The economic downturn risk caused by tariffs may also dominate the market. On the fundamental side, the supply is stable, the consumption end is at the transition between peak and off - peak seasons, the bearish expectations for future consumption are weakening, and the accumulation of social inventory is slowing down. Overall, the market has both long and short factors, and aluminum prices are expected to continue to fluctuate [8] 3.4 Industry News - Century Aluminum will restart about 57,000 tons of idle capacity at its Mt. Holly smelter in South Carolina, with an investment of about 50 million dollars, aiming to increase the local aluminum production in the US by nearly 10%. The plant is expected to reach full production by June 30, 2026, with an annual primary aluminum output of about 730,000 tons. Henan Wanjji Aluminum Industry Co., Ltd. will transfer 580,000 tons of production capacity to Xinjiang, with a planned production start in December 2027. Mozambique's Mozal aluminum plant faces the risk of shutdown due to power issues, and the company is communicating to ensure power supply after March 2026 [9] 3.5 Related Charts - The report provides charts on the price trends of LME Aluminum 3 - month and SHFE Aluminum Continuous Three, the Shanghai - London aluminum ratio, LME aluminum premium, Shanghai aluminum inter - period spread, Shanghai - Guangdong price difference, spot premium seasonality, domestic and imported alumina prices, electrolytic aluminum cost - profit, electrolytic aluminum inventory seasonality, and aluminum rod inventory seasonality [10][11][14][15][16]