Group 1: Overseas Macro - In September, US retail sales increased by 0.4% month-on-month, exceeding expectations of 0.3%[2] - Year-on-year, US retail sales recorded a growth of 1.7%, down from 2.2% in the previous month[2] - The US dollar index reached a peak of 103.8, while the 10-year Treasury yield surpassed 4.10%[1] - The European Central Bank (ECB) cut interest rates by 25 basis points, marking the third cut this year, shifting focus from anti-inflation to stabilizing the economy[3] Group 2: Domestic Macro - China's GDP growth for Q3 was 4.6%, slightly above the market expectation of 4.5%[4] - The GDP deflator recorded a year-on-year decrease of -0.8%, indicating easing deflationary pressures[4] - In September, retail sales in China grew by 3.2% year-on-year, surpassing the expected 2.5%[4] - Fixed asset investment in September showed a cumulative year-on-year growth of 3.4%, slightly above the expected 3.3%[8] Group 3: Real Estate and Investment - In September, the sales area of commercial housing in China was 96.82 million square meters, the lowest for the same period since 2010, with a year-on-year decline of -10.8%[8] - The proportion of private investment in fixed assets fell to a record low of 50.4%, indicating weakened confidence in the private sector[8]

Overseas Macro - In September, the US CPI recorded a year-on-year increase of 2.4%, slightly above the expected 2.3% and down from the previous 2.5%, marking the lowest level since February 2021[2] - Core CPI also exceeded expectations, with a year-on-year increase of 3.3%, compared to the expected 3.2% and the previous 3.2%[2] - Initial jobless claims reached 258,000, the highest in over a year, indicating potential market weakness[2] - The market is pricing in a 90% chance of a 25 basis point rate cut in November[1] Domestic Macro - In September, China's CPI fell to 0.4%, below the expected 0.6%, and PPI dropped to -2.8%, worse than the expected -2.5%[4] - Core CPI continued to decline, reaching a historical low of 0.1% year-on-year, indicating ongoing pressure on consumer spending[4] - Food prices supported the CPI reading, with a year-on-year increase of 3.3%[4] - The Ministry of Finance announced measures to enhance fiscal policy, focusing on risk mitigation and economic growth, but specifics on scale were not disclosed[9] Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index fell by 3.56%, while the Shenzhen Component Index dropped by 4.45%[10] - The Dow Jones Industrial Average increased by 1.21%, and the Nasdaq Composite rose by 1.13%[10] - The 10-year US Treasury yield rose to 4.08%, reflecting market adjustments to interest rate expectations[11]

Overseas Macro - In August, the US PCE inflation rate fell to 2.2%, the lowest since March 2021, with core PCE at 2.7%[2] - The US manufacturing PMI for September dropped to 47.0, a 15-month low, while the services PMI remained in expansion at 55.4[3][4] - The dollar index fluctuated above 100, and the 10Y US Treasury yield rose to 3.75%[1] Domestic Macro - A-shares experienced a significant rebound, with the offshore RMB breaking the 7 mark, driven by unexpected policy support[1] - In September, the central bank cut the reserve requirement ratio by 50 basis points and interest rates by 20-30 basis points, signaling future easing[9] - Industrial profits in August showed a year-on-year decline of 17.8%, indicating weak demand and profit pressures across various sectors[6][7] Risks and Market Outlook - Risks include weaker-than-expected fiscal policy, increased volatility during overseas holidays, and ongoing geopolitical tensions[1] - The market is currently pricing in a potential 75 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve by the end of the year[1]

宏观周报 2024 年 9 月 23 日 美联储 50BP 开启降息，国内 9 月降息预期落空 核心观点 ⚫ 海外方面，美联储9月FOMC正式开启降息周期，首次降 息幅度50BP略超市场预期，但又在情理之中。点阵图显示 年内再降息50BP，本轮周期共降250BP，经济预测报告小 幅下调今年GDP至2%，同时上调未来2年失业率至4.3- 4.4%，通胀中枢预期下调，整体经济预计仍偏稳健。美联 储的重点显著偏向就业市场，鲍威尔称"数据将推动货币 政策选择，降息将根据需要加快、放慢或暂停"，鸽派降 息+鹰派指引，FOMC会议后市场交易未来货币政策空间 降低，降息落地10Y美债利率反而上行至3.7%。50BP的 "预防式"降息叠加不弱的经济数据，海外上周重回交易 "不衰退"。本周关注美国9月PMI、PCE及二季度GDP 终值。 ⚫ 国内方面，在美联储降息靴子落地后，投资者对9月LPR 下调有不小的预期，降息落空后，国内资产延续此前"股 弱债强"趋势。虽然LPR未调降，我们认为存量房贷利率 下调仍然可期，此举将缓解居民资产负债收缩倾向，并促 进居民消费，可持续跟踪进展。本周关注8月工业企业利 润数据及MLF续作情况。 ...

Economic Overview - The U.S. added 142,000 non-farm jobs in August, below the expected 165,000, indicating a weakening job market[8] - The unemployment rate slightly decreased to 4.2%, matching expectations, while the labor participation rate remained steady at 62.7%[8] - August CPI in the U.S. was recorded at 2.5%, lower than the expected 2.6%, marking the lowest level since February 2021[8] U.S. Monetary Policy - The Federal Reserve is expected to cut interest rates by 25 basis points in September, with a total of 1-2 cuts anticipated by the end of the year[9] - The market's sensitivity to recession signals has increased, reflecting concerns over economic stability[2] Chinese Economic Conditions - China's CPI for August was 0.6%, while PPI was -1.8%, both below market expectations, indicating persistent deflationary pressures[15] - Core CPI fell to a historical low of 0.3%, suggesting weak consumer demand for goods and services[15] Asset Performance - In August, domestic bond performance was +0.06%, while equities fell by -3.97% and commodities by -1.51%[22] - Overseas markets outperformed domestic ones, with global bonds rising by +2.37% and equities by +1.58%[22] Risk Factors - Domestic consumption recovery is weaker than expected, and the risk of U.S. recession is increasing, alongside geopolitical tensions[2]

Group 1: Overseas Macro Insights - The US Q2 GDP was revised up to 3.0%, driven primarily by personal consumption, indicating strong consumer contribution to the economy[3] - The core PCE for July was lower than expected at 2.6%, suggesting a moderate inflation environment[4] - The trade deficit worsened, contributing -0.77% to GDP, indicating strong internal demand despite external pressures[3] Group 2: Domestic Macro Insights - The manufacturing PMI for August remained weak at 49.1, indicating continued contraction for four consecutive months[9] - The non-manufacturing PMI was slightly better at 50.2, but still below historical averages, reflecting weak recovery in services[9] - Industrial profits showed a year-on-year increase of 3.6% for the first seven months of 2024, with July profits up 4.2%[12] Group 3: Market Trends and Risks - The US dollar index hit a year-to-date low before rebounding, while 10Y US Treasury yields fluctuated above 3.8%[1] - Risks include weaker-than-expected domestic recovery, limited overseas monetary easing, and escalating geopolitical tensions[1] - The recent strengthening of the RMB is attributed to multiple factors, including policy expectations and corporate foreign exchange settlements[1]

Market Overview - The bond market has entered an observation phase, influenced primarily by central bank actions and stock market rebounds[1] - The yield on the 10-year government bond futures contract T2412 showed a monthly fluctuation of 1.23%, with a high of 106.365 and a low of 105.065, ending at 105.755, reflecting a decrease of 0.18%[8] Monetary Policy and Strategy - The central bank has signaled a strong likelihood of interest rate cuts in September, although the extent and speed of these cuts remain uncertain due to resilient economic data[1] - The central bank's operations in August included a net injection of 391.4 billion yuan, with a focus on adjusting the yield curve through the sale of long-term bonds[12][14] Economic Indicators - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 0.5% year-on-year in July, with food prices contributing significantly to this increase[19][22] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) remained stable, showing a year-on-year decline of 0.8% in July, indicating ongoing pressures in the manufacturing sector[24] Investment Trends - The total social financing stock as of July was 395.72 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 8.2%, reflecting sluggish growth in corporate and household sectors[16] - Fixed asset investment from January to July was 287.61 billion yuan, growing by 3.6% year-on-year, with notable increases in the secondary industry[32] Trade and Exports - In the first seven months of 2024, China's total goods trade reached 24.83 trillion yuan, with exports growing by 6.7% to 14.26 trillion yuan[33] - The trade surplus expanded by 7.9% to 518 billion USD, indicating a robust export performance despite global economic challenges[33]

宏观周报 2024 年 8 月 26 日 鲍威尔定调九月降息，国内风险偏好依旧低迷 核心观点 ⚫ 海外方面，欧美8月PMI初值均呈现一个特征：制造业回 落，服务业持续走高，全球制造业景气在7月后呈现出疲 软迹象。7月FOMC会议纪要显示，通胀风险减弱，就业 风险上升，官员们强烈倾向于9月降息。随后周五晚上鲍 威尔在杰克逊霍尔全球央行年会上确认了美联储的鸽派 转向，市场定价降息50BP的概率小幅上行，美元指数、美 债利率快速回落，有色金属、贵金属得到提振，美股冲高 回落。目前9月开启降息已成共识，焦点在于是25BP还是 50BP，重点关注9月初的非农就业报告。本周关注美国二 季度GDP修正值、7月PCE。 ⚫ 国内方面，上周无重要数据，8月LPR利率按兵不动。股 市情绪偏低迷，红利银行板块表现较优，中证1000代表的 小票跌幅较深，全A周均成交额5424亿元，为近3年次低， 市场风险偏好尚未见回暖迹象。债市方面，现券成交量萎 缩，国债利率继续走低，周末监管发声"并未禁止中小金 融机构进行国债交易"、"央行并未设置长期国债利率区 间"，短期来看债市"投机资金"在监管下将逐渐流出， 但中长期看机构、居民风险偏好下行 ...

| --- | --- | --- | --- | |-------|------------------------|-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|-----------------------------------------------------| | | | | 宏观周报 | | | | 2024 年 8 月 19 日 | | | | | 海外"衰退交易"消退，国内经济依旧偏冷 | | | | | | | | | 核心观点 | | | | ⚫ | 海外方面，美国 7 | 月 CPI 同比重回 2 字头，核心 CPI 创 3 年多 新低，结构上商品通胀降温、服务通胀韧劲犹存，特别是 | 投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可【 2015 】 84 号 | | | | 住房通胀重回上行趋势，带动市场预期从 9 月降息 50BP 收 | 李婷 | | | 敛至 25BP 。 7 录得 1% | 月美国零售数据超所有主流机构预期，环比 创下年内新高，同时最 ...

| --- | --- | --- | --- | |-------|----------------------------------|--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|----------------------------------------------| | | | | 宏观周报 | | | 2024 | 年 8 月 12 日 海外"衰退交易"有所降温，国内物价温和回升 | | | | 核心观点 | | | | ⚫ | | 海外方面，海此前日元套息交易的清盘、 7 月大幅走弱的非农就 | 投资咨询业务资格 | | | | 业点燃市场"交易衰退"的情绪，全球股市迎来"黑色星期一"， | 沪证监许可【 2015 】 84 号 | | | 10Y 美债利率迅速回落至 | 3.7% 。随着美国服务业 PMI 和最新初 | 李婷 | | | 解， VIX | 申失业金人数好于预期、日央行的鸽派发言，市场担忧逐渐缓 指数逐步回落，美股 ...