投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可[2015]84 号 商品日报 20250328 联系人 李婷、黄蕾、高慧、王工建、赵凯熙 电子邮箱 jytzzx@jyqh.com.cn 电话 021-68555105 主要品种观点 宏观：关税落地重燃避险情绪，国内企业盈利有待修复 海外方面，美国四季度 GDP 环比折年率上修至 2.4%、PCE 下修至 2.6%，美国最新初 请失业金人数录得 22.4 万人，指向劳动力市场依旧偏稳；欧盟、加拿大、巴西、墨西哥等国 暗示反制特朗普汽车关税，全球贸易摩擦预期加剧，市场避险情绪浓厚。美元指数回落至 104.3，10Y 美债利率小幅升至 4.36%，美股震荡收跌，金价再创新高，铜价高位回落，油价 小幅收涨。 国内方面，1-2 月工业企业营业收入同比+2.8%、利润同比-0.3%，其中私营企业利润同 比-9%，利润率处于近年来低位，目前需求偏弱、物价低迷依旧是企业盈利改善的掣肘。A 股小幅放量收涨，两市成交额回升至 1.22 万亿，科创 50、上证 50 表现较好，行业上光刻 机、创新药领涨，市场仍处于缩量盘整时期。债市方面，央行转向净回笼，资金面整体偏松， 市场情绪尚在修复，对央行态度 ...

投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可[2015]84 号 商品日报 20250327 联系人 李婷、黄蕾、高慧、王工建、赵凯熙 电子邮箱 jytzzx@jyqh.com.cn 电话 021-68555105 主要品种观点 宏观：特朗普汽车关税落地，A 股成交热度持续降温 海外方面，特朗普宣布对所有进口汽车征收 25%关税，称对等关税计划将是"宽松"的； 外媒报道特朗普将加速铜关税征收，最快或数周内实施。美国2月耐用品订单环比录得0.9%， 远超预期-1%，重回历史高位附近，核心订单增幅创两年新高。贸易战担忧引发市场避险情 绪，美联储官员鹰派发言称"关税或导致持续通胀"，美股重回跌势，10Y 美债利率回升至 4.35%，美铜创新高、LME 铜及沪铜高位调整，金价走平，油价收涨。 国内方面，A 股缩量震荡，两市成交额回落至 1.18 万亿、创 2 月来新低，风格上小微 盘股重占上风，行业上鸡产业、工程机械领涨，市场成交热度持续回落，上市公司基本面及 特朗普关税预期节奏为近期关注重点。债市方面，央行昨日持续净投放，资金面偏松，市场 重回博弈"降准"及配置盘进场，长短端利率均显著下行，10Y、30Y 利率继续回落至 1.78 ...

投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可[2015]84 号 商品日报 20250325 联系人 李婷、黄蕾、高慧、王工建、赵凯熙 电子邮箱 jytzzx@jyqh.com.cn 电话 021-68555105 主要品种观点 宏观：海外关税预期转鸽提振风偏，国内 MLF 或迎结构性降息 海外方面，美国 3 月 Markit PMI 分化，制造业 PMI 弱于预期重回萎缩区间，而 1-2 月 爆冷的服务业 PMI 回升至 54.3 的高位，企业主要担忧关税影响及政府削减开支；欧洲 3 月 Markit 制造业 PMI 持续回暖，其中德法回升显著。特朗普：4 月 2 日起将对所有购买委内 瑞拉油气的国家征收 25%关税、将在近期宣布针对汽车、制药、木材、芯片等多个行业的新 关税，可能会对许多国家给予关税豁免，但需对等。关税预期转鸽、经济数据偏暖，美元指 数站稳 104 上方，10Y 美债利率回升至 4.34%，美股大幅反弹，金、铜回调，油价受关税影 响上涨超 1%。 国内方面，A 股缩量 V 型反弹，两市成交额回落至 1.48 万亿、依旧处于 2 月来偏水平， 风格上红利价值板块较好，中证 1000、微盘股调整幅度较大，行业 ...

美国经济降温风险加剧，国内制造业景气回升 宏观周报 2025 年 3 月 3 日 核心观点 投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可【2015】84 号 李婷 021-68555105 li.t@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F0297587 投资咨询号：Z0011509 黄蕾 huang.lei@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F0307990 投资咨询号：Z0011692 高慧 gao.h@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F03099478 投资咨询号：Z0017785 王工建 wang.gj@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F0384165 投资咨询号：Z0016301 赵凯熙 zhao.kx@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F03112296 投资咨询号：Z0021040 敬请参阅最后一页免责声明 1 / 12 ⚫ 海外方面，美国1月核心PCE符合预期，其中商品通胀走 强，而服务通胀同比降至2021年4月来新低，与近期服务 业PMI降温、消费者信心指数大幅回落相印证。最新亚特 兰大联储的GDPNow模型显示一季度美国GDP环比折年 率为-1.5%，主要受到净出口、个人消费支出的拖累。近 期海 ...

宏观周报 2025 年 2 月 24 日 美国服务业景气骤降，A 股科技股重估行情延续 核心观点 投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可【2015】84 号 李婷 021-68555105 li.t@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F0297587 投资咨询号：Z0011509 ⚫ 海外方面，美国经济呈现边际降温，此前处于高位景气的 服务业PMI在2月骤降至收缩区间、创下两年来新低，反 映市场对政府支出削减和关税政策不确定性的担忧；而制 造业景气连续2个月扩张，有部分工厂在关税落地前扩大 产量的短期扰动，后续关注制造业回暖的持续性。2月密 歇根大学消费者信心指数回落，中长期通胀预期回升至 4.3%、创下30年新高，同样蕴含了消费者对关税影响的担 忧。上周五数据公布后，美债利率下行至4.42%，纳指跌 幅超2%，市场预期首次降息时点提前至6月。本周关注美 国四季度GDP修正值、1月PCE通胀数据。 ⚫ 国内方面，上周处于数据真空期，2月LPR利率如期按兵 不动，股债市场各自延续此前的交易主线。股市延续放量 上涨，成交额重回2万亿元上方，春节前Deepseek点燃的 中国科技股重估行情仍在演绎，阿里巴巴三季报超预期为 ...

Group 1: U.S. Economic Indicators - In January, the U.S. CPI rose to 3.0% year-on-year, exceeding expectations of 2.9% and marking a six-month high[3] - The January retail sales decreased by 0.9% month-on-month, significantly below the expected decline of 0.1%, with the previous value revised to a 0.7% increase[8] - The core CPI for January recorded a year-on-year increase of 3.3%, surpassing the expected 3.1%[4] Group 2: Domestic Financial Data - In January, the total social financing (TSF) increased by 70,567 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5,833 billion yuan, indicating a strong start to the year[12] - The new RMB loans in January amounted to 52,194 billion yuan, up by 3,793 billion yuan year-on-year, supporting the overall financing growth[13] - The M1 and M2 growth rates were reported at 0.4% and 7.0% respectively, with M1 showing a slight recovery compared to the previous month[13] Group 3: Market Trends and Risks - The market is closely monitoring the potential impact of AI innovation on asset revaluation in China, which has positively influenced the equity market[12] - Risks include potential market volatility due to Trump's policies, domestic policy effectiveness falling short of expectations, and the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts not aligning with market predictions[12]

Group 1: Overseas Macro Trends - In January, the US Markit Manufacturing PMI rose to 50.1, exceeding expectations of 49.7 and marking a seven-month high, indicating a return to expansion[5] - The US Services PMI fell to 52.8, significantly below the expected 56.5, reflecting a decline in consumer confidence, which dropped to 71.1, the first decrease in six months[5] - Eurozone Manufacturing PMI improved to 46.1, above the expected 45.3, while Services PMI remained stable at 51.4, indicating a mixed recovery across the region[7] Group 2: Domestic Economic Indicators - The USD/CNY exchange rate strengthened from 7.31 to 7.24, reflecting a positive market response to Trump's dovish signals regarding tariffs on China[2] - Domestic economic recovery continued, supported by exports and consumption, with real estate prices showing signs of recovery[2] - The upcoming focus includes China's January PMI and December industrial profits, which are expected to provide further insights into economic health[2] Group 3: Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3,252.63, with a weekly increase of 0.33%[9] - The 10-year US Treasury yield fluctuated around 4.63%, while the 10-year German bond yield rose to 2.58%[12] - Commodity prices showed mixed results, with COMEX gold at $2,777.40, reflecting a weekly increase of 1.04%[14]

Summary of Conference Call Notes Company and Industry Involved - The discussion primarily revolves around the PCB (Printed Circuit Board) industry, specifically focusing on high-frequency and high-speed copper foil products such as RTF (Reverse Transfer Foil) and HVLP (High Voltage Low Profile) [1][2][3][10]. Core Points and Arguments 1. **Production Capacity and Orders** - The company is currently operating at full capacity, with a significant number of orders, particularly for the 70 billion unit orders, which are expected to continue into 2024 [1]. - There is an expectation of a slight loss in 2024, but a return to profitability is anticipated in 2025 due to increased demand and production efficiency [1]. 2. **Profit Margins and Cost Increases** - The overall profit margins are expected to improve despite a slight increase in processing fees, which are still manageable [2]. - The company has noted that the processing fees for HVLP products are significantly higher due to the limited number of manufacturers capable of producing them [10]. 3. **Product Development and Market Position** - The HVLP product line is positioned as a leader in the domestic market, with a strong focus on high-performance applications such as data centers and radar systems [3][4]. - The company has been collaborating with downstream manufacturers to develop products that meet specific technical requirements, enhancing their market position [9][12]. 4. **Technical Challenges** - The production of HVLP products faces several technical challenges, including high-temperature stability, signal interference resistance, and overall production complexity [4][5]. - The company has developed a robust process to address these challenges, ensuring high-quality output [4]. 5. **Market Dynamics and Competition** - The HVLP market is currently dominated by Japanese companies, with significant competition from domestic players [8]. - The company is focusing on expanding its customer base, particularly among well-known Taiwanese and mainland manufacturers [8]. 6. **Future Strategies** - The company plans to enhance its engagement with PCB manufacturers to better align with market demands, especially in the context of AI and high-performance computing [11][12]. - There is a consideration to shift some production capacity from lithium electronic copper foil to PCB copper foil, depending on market conditions [13][14]. Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content - The company is actively involved in R&D collaborations with upstream suppliers to ensure that their products meet the evolving needs of high-end applications [9]. - The processing costs for RTF and HVLP products vary significantly, with RTF being more widely produced and utilized in various applications, including servers [15]. - The company is aware of the competitive landscape and is taking steps to maintain its market share while exploring new opportunities in high-end product segments [13][14].

宏观周报 美元指数持续走高，国内非制造业景气回升 核心观点 ⚫ 海外方面，美国12月ISM制造业显著好于预期，创9个月 来新高，其中产需双双大幅回升，物价同步上行，就业持 续萎缩，另一个口径的Markit制造业终值同样显著好于预 期。就业方面，美国最新初请失业金人数走低至21.1万人， 创8个月新低。较强的经济数据推动美元指数在上周最高 站上109.5，10Y美债利率收于4.6%，金价小幅收涨、铜价 收跌、WTI原油涨幅近5%。本周关注欧美服务业PMI、 美国12月非农就业报告。 投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可【2015】84 号 李婷 021-68555105 li.t@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F0297587 投资咨询号：Z0011509 黄蕾 huang.lei@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F0307990 投资咨询号：Z0011692 高慧 gao.h@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F03099478 投资咨询号：Z0017785 王工建 wang.gj@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F0384165 投资咨询号：Z0016301 赵凯熙 资料来源：IFinD，铜冠金源期 ...