Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The overall market is influenced by a combination of factors including weak US economic data, geopolitical tensions, and trade policy uncertainties. Different commodities show diverse trends based on their specific supply - demand fundamentals and macro - economic impacts [2][4][6]. Summary by Commodity Categories Macro - Overseas: US April retail sales had a 0.1% month - on - month increase, with weak consumer spending in optional categories. April PPI rose 2.4% year - on - year, lower than expected, and dropped 0.5% month - on - month. The dollar index fell to 100.7, 10Y US Treasury yield to 4.43%. Gold rebounded nearly 2% after hitting a one - month low, oil prices dropped over 2% due to supply expectations, and copper prices rose. Powell mentioned policy framework adjustments and potential long - term interest rate hikes [2]. - Domestic: A - shares declined on low volume. The bond market saw rising Treasury yields despite the arrival of trillion - level reserve requirement ratio cut funds due to concerns about the central bank's policy shift [3]. Precious Metals - International precious metal futures prices rebounded. COMEX gold futures rose 1.74% to $3243.90 per ounce, and COMEX silver futures rose 1.07% to $32.79 per ounce. Weak US economic data, a weaker dollar index, and increased geopolitical risk aversion drove the rise. Short - term price rebounds are expected, but prices are still in a phased adjustment [4][5]. Copper - LME copper inventory dropped to 186,000 tons. The global economic growth is expected to slow to 2.4% in 2025. Codelco and Rio Tinto plan to explore a new copper project in Chile. With low inventory and some positive factors, copper prices are expected to be strongly volatile in the short term [6][7]. Aluminum - Shanghai aluminum futures rose 0.47% to 20,250 yuan/ton, while LME aluminum fell 0.93% to $2499/ton. Aluminum inventories decreased significantly. Weak US economic data increased macro - pressure, but inventory reduction supported prices. Aluminum prices are expected to be short - term strong but with limited upside [8][9][10]. Alumina - Alumina futures rose 4.93% to 2019 yuan/ton. Supply is tight due to enterprise maintenance and production cuts, and the market is expected to be bullish. Attention should be paid to supply - demand pattern changes [11]. Zinc - US economic data led to increased expectations of interest rate cuts, boosting zinc prices. However, the supply growth rate is higher than the demand growth rate. Zinc prices are expected to be strongly volatile in the short term [12]. Lead - Due to inventory accumulation and weak consumption in the off - season, the fundamental support for lead prices is insufficient. But the positive macro - environment supports short - term high - level consolidation [13]. Tin - The supply - demand of tin is currently in a weak balance. The short - term trend is strong but faces pressure from the 40 - day moving average. Attention should be paid to inventory data [14][15]. Industrial Silicon - The supply is under pressure, and the demand is weak, especially in the photovoltaic industry. The market is expected to remain in a low - level oscillation [16][17]. Lithium Carbonate - The short - term fundamental situation is bearish, with high inventory suppressing prices. Lithium prices may attempt a second downward breakthrough [18][19]. Nickel - The market has different expectations after the easing of tariff frictions. The supply surplus exists, and nickel prices are expected to oscillate [20]. Crude Oil - Crude oil prices are under pressure due to the expected increase in supply from the potential US - Iran agreement. However, considering the current price level, it is not advisable to short Shanghai crude oil futures at present [21]. Steel (Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil) - Steel demand has recovered but with limited strength. Supply is stable, and steel prices are expected to oscillate [22][23]. Iron Ore - Steel mills' demand is falling, and the supply is generally loose. Iron ore prices are expected to oscillate under pressure [24]. Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - US soybean crushing was higher than expected, and the drought in the US soybean - growing area increased. With weak domestic demand and falling Brazilian discounts, double - meal prices are expected to be weakly volatile [25][26]. Palm Oil - The sharp decline in US soybean oil prices drags down the palm oil market. Although Malaysian palm oil exports increased in the first half of May, the expected increase in domestic inventory in June may put pressure on prices. Palm oil is expected to oscillate in the short term [27][28].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Overseas, US inflation continues to cool, with the April CPI at 2.3% year - on - year, the lowest since February 2021. The market expects the Fed to start cutting rates in September, with two cuts this year. Trump pressured Powell to cut rates after the CPI report. Market risk appetite has increased, with the US stock market rising, the US dollar index falling, and oil, gold, and copper prices rising [2]. - Domestically, the A - share market opened higher but closed slightly lower. After the Sino - US tariff downgrade, the market faced profit - taking pressure. The bond market slightly recovered, and the capital market was loose [3]. - For precious metals, although gold and silver prices rebounded due to cooling US inflation and bargain - hunting, the core driving factor of safe - haven demand is receding, and gold is still in a phased adjustment [4]. - For copper, Sino - US trade truce boosts market risk appetite. With positive fundamentals, copper prices are expected to remain strong in the short term [5][6]. - For aluminum, macro and fundamental factors are positive, but attention should be paid to the realization of consumption [7]. - For zinc, although short - term factors are favorable, the supply is expected to be loose in the long - term, and zinc prices are expected to fluctuate strongly [8][9]. - For lead, the market is in a situation of weak supply and demand, and lead prices continue to test integer pressure [10]. - For tin, although the short - term macro sentiment is positive, the resumption of the Bisie tin mine will suppress price increases [11]. - For industrial silicon, the market is in a situation of weak supply and demand and is expected to oscillate at a low level [12][13]. - For lithium carbonate, the short - term price trend is unclear, and it is advisable to wait and see [14][15]. - For nickel, the short - term price lacks support, and nickel prices will oscillate [16]. - For crude oil, the price has reached the pressure range, and there may be an inflection point in the near future [17][18]. - For steel products, the futures market rebounds, while the spot market is weak, and steel prices are expected to oscillate [19]. - For iron ore, port inventories are increasing, and iron ore prices will oscillate [20]. - For soybean and rapeseed meal, the spot market is under pressure, and the prices are expected to oscillate weakly [21][22]. - For palm oil, due to the unexpected increase in inventory, palm oil prices are expected to oscillate [23][24]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Metal Main Varieties Yesterday's Trading Data - The table shows the closing data of major metal futures contracts, including closing prices, price changes, price change percentages, trading volumes, open interests, and price units [25]. 3.2 Industrial Data Perspective - The table presents the data of various metals on May 13 and May 12, including futures prices, warehouse receipts, inventories, spot premiums and discounts, and price ratios, as well as their changes [26][29][31].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The Sino - US tariff reduction exceeded expectations, improving global risk appetite. The capital market's risk preference was boosted, and the market pricing mainline might shift from tariff policies to fundamental factors [2]. - The easing of Sino - US trade tensions led to a decline in the demand for safe - haven assets, causing a significant drop in gold prices. Gold is in a phased adjustment, and the adjustment time is expected to be long [3][4]. - The Sino - US joint statement relieved pressure on the global economy. Copper prices are expected to maintain a strong - side oscillation in the short term, supported by fundamentals but restricted by the rebound of the US dollar index [6][7]. - The progress of trade negotiations exceeded expectations, and the aluminum price rebounded. The continuous reduction of aluminum ingot social inventory indicates that consumption still has resilience [8]. - The Sino - US tariff negotiation achieved significant progress, and the alumina price is expected to continue to oscillate and recover due to the improvement of both macro and fundamental aspects [9][10]. - The Sino - US tariff reduction agreement alleviated concerns about the US economic recession. Zinc prices first rose and then fell, and are expected to oscillate strongly in the short term under the stimulation of macro - level benefits [11]. - The lead price was boosted by macro - level benefits but faced pressure at the integer level. There is a risk of a small - scale adjustment after the short - term benefits are digested [12]. - The reduction of Sino - US tariffs exceeded expectations, and the concern about the decline in tin demand eased. Tin prices were driven by the macro - level, and attention should be paid to the pressure of the 60 - day moving average [13][14]. - The smooth progress of Sino - US trade negotiations boosted risk preference. Industrial silicon is expected to maintain a low - level oscillating trend in the short term due to the supply - demand imbalance [15][16]. - The trend of lithium carbonate prices is unclear. It is recommended to wait and see due to the misalignment of upstream and downstream capacity structure investment and the unclear price trend [17][18]. - The Sino - US economic and trade forum results exceeded market expectations, and the Philippine nickel ore export ban might be implemented in June. Nickel prices are expected to rise [19][20]. - Although the Sino - US economic and trade results were positive, the oil price might return to a downward trend due to the expected increase in OPEC + production and the mediocre demand growth [22][23]. - The Sino - US economic and trade high - level talks boosted market sentiment. Steel prices are expected to oscillate strongly, although the fundamentals of rebar and hot - rolled coil are weak [24][25]. - The Sino - US tariff policy exceeded expectations, and the iron ore price is expected to oscillate strongly due to the improved market sentiment, although the supply is generally loose [26]. - The USDA report was generally positive for soybeans. Domestic soybean inventories are accumulating rapidly, and the short - term soybean meal futures may oscillate and rebound. Rapeseed meal may follow the trend of soybean meal [27][28]. - The Sino - US trade negotiation achieved significant progress, and the palm oil price may oscillate in the short term due to the improvement of macro - level sentiment and the expected increase in inventory [29][30]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Metals 3.1.1 Copper - On Monday, the main contract of Shanghai copper oscillated upward, and LME copper fell back after hitting 9600 US dollars. The spot market transaction was weak, and the LME inventory decreased to 19.1 million tons [6]. - The Sino - US joint statement relieved pressure on the global economy. The fundamentals still provide strong support, but the rebound of the US dollar index restricts the upward movement of copper prices. It is expected to maintain a strong - side oscillation in the short term [7]. 3.1.2 Aluminum - On Monday, the main contract of Shanghai aluminum closed at 19,910 yuan/ton, up 1.66%. LME aluminum rose 2.15%. The social inventory of aluminum ingots continued to decline significantly, and the aluminum price tested the pressure above the 20,000 - yuan mark again [8]. 3.1.3 Alumina - On Monday, the main contract of alumina futures rose 0.67%. The supply decreased due to factory maintenance and production reduction, and the inventory decreased. The price is expected to continue to oscillate and recover [9][10]. 3.1.4 Zinc - On Monday, the main contract of zinc first rose and then fell. The import of zinc ingots supplemented the market supply, and the downstream procurement was weak. The inventory increased slightly, and the spot premium continued to decline. It is expected to oscillate strongly in the short term [11]. 3.1.5 Lead - On Monday, the main contract of Shanghai lead oscillated strongly during the day and gave back the gains at night. It is in the consumption off - season, the downstream procurement is insufficient, and there is a risk of a small - scale adjustment after the short - term benefits are digested [12]. 3.1.6 Tin - On Monday, the main contract of Shanghai tin fluctuated sharply during the day and opened high and oscillated narrowly at night. The supply - demand is weak, and the tin price is driven by the macro - level. Attention should be paid to the pressure of the 60 - day moving average [13][14]. 3.1.7 Nickel - On Monday, the nickel price oscillated widely. The Sino - US economic and trade forum results exceeded expectations, and the Philippine government plans to implement a nickel ore export ban in June. The nickel price may rise [19][20]. 3.1.8 Precious Metals - On Monday, international precious metal futures closed down. COMEX gold futures fell 3.06%, and COMEX silver futures fell 0.36%. The easing of Sino - US trade tensions reduced the demand for safe - haven assets, and the rebound of the US dollar index also pressured the prices [3]. 3.2 Energy 3.2.1 Crude Oil - On Monday, crude oil oscillated strongly. The oil price has rebounded to near the previous high. Due to the expected increase in OPEC + production and mediocre demand growth, it may return to a downward trend [22][23]. 3.3 Building Materials 3.3.1 Steel - On Monday, steel futures rose. The Sino - US economic and trade high - level talks boosted market sentiment. Although the fundamentals of rebar and hot - rolled coil are weak, steel prices are expected to oscillate strongly [24][25]. 3.3.2 Iron Ore - On Monday, iron ore futures rose. The Sino - US tariff policy exceeded expectations, and the market sentiment improved. Although the supply is generally loose, the iron ore price is expected to oscillate strongly [26]. 3.4 Agricultural Products 3.4.1 Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - On Monday, the soybean meal 09 contract rose, and the rapeseed meal 09 contract fell. The USDA report was generally positive for soybeans. Domestic soybean inventories are accumulating rapidly, and the short - term soybean meal futures may oscillate and rebound. Rapeseed meal may follow the trend of soybean meal [27][28]. 3.4.2 Palm Oil - On Monday, the palm oil 09 contract rose. The Sino - US trade negotiation achieved significant progress, and the palm oil price may oscillate in the short term due to the improvement of macro - level sentiment and the expected increase in inventory [29][30]. 3.5 Others 3.5.1 Industrial Silicon - On Monday, the main contract of industrial silicon rebounded from a low level. The supply - demand is imbalanced, and it is expected to maintain a low - level oscillating trend in the short term [15][16]. 3.5.2 Lithium Carbonate - On Monday, the lithium carbonate price oscillated strongly. The trend is unclear due to the misalignment of upstream and downstream capacity structure investment and the unclear price trend. It is recommended to wait and see [17][18].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The steel price is expected to show a volatile trend. Last week, the industrial data was below expectations, with a significant weakening in steel demand. The output of rebar declined, and the apparent demand decreased substantially, leading to an increase in inventory. The output of hot-rolled coils remained stable, but the apparent demand also declined, resulting in a corresponding increase in inventory. The real estate downturn and seasonal patterns contributed to the decline in the apparent demand for building materials, and hot-rolled coils faced pressure on exports due to overseas anti-dumping measures. On the macro front, the high-level Sino-US economic and trade negotiations achieved substantial progress [1][6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Transaction Data - SHFE rebar had a closing price of 3022 yuan/ton, a decline of 74 yuan, and a drop of 2.39%. The total trading volume was 8,123,194 lots, and the total open interest was 2,893,444 lots [2]. - SHFE hot-rolled coils had a closing price of 3157 yuan/ton, a decline of 47 yuan, and a drop of 1.47%. The total trading volume was 2,485,168 lots, and the total open interest was 1,395,031 lots [2]. - DCE iron ore had a closing price of 696.0 yuan/ton, a decline of 7.5 yuan, and a drop of 1.07%. The total trading volume was 1,895,858 lots, and the total open interest was 699,233 lots [2]. - DCE coking coal had a closing price of 877.5 yuan/ton, a decline of 53.0 yuan, and a drop of 5.70%. The total trading volume was 1,356,112 lots, and the total open interest was 418,835 lots [2]. - DCE coke had a closing price of 1446.5 yuan/ton, a decline of 91.5 yuan, and a drop of 5.95%. The total trading volume was 98,662 lots, and the total open interest was 50,876 lots [2]. Market Review - Last week, steel futures fluctuated downward. The fundamental situation weakened, leading to a decline in steel prices. In the spot market, the price of Tangshan steel billets was 2910 (-50) yuan/ton, the Shanghai rebar was quoted at 3170 (-50) yuan/ton, and the Shanghai hot-rolled coils were at 3220 (-40) yuan/ton [4]. Macro Situation - On May 7, three departments issued a package of financial policies to stabilize the market and expectations. The central bank announced the introduction of ten policy measures, including a comprehensive reserve requirement ratio cut of 0.5 percentage points, a reduction of the policy interest rate by 0.1 percentage points, a decrease in the interest rates of structural monetary policy tools and provident fund loans by 0.25 percentage points, and the establishment of a 500 billion yuan "service consumption and elderly care re-loan" [1][5][10]. - The Financial Regulatory Administration will introduce eight incremental policies, including accelerating the introduction of a financing system suitable for the new model of real estate development and re-approving a 60 billion yuan long-term investment pilot for insurance funds [5][10]. - The China Securities Regulatory Commission will fully support China Central Huijin to play the role of a quasi-"stabilization fund" and introduce policy measures to deepen the reform of the Science and Technology Innovation Board and the Growth Enterprise Market [5][10]. - The high-level Sino-US economic and trade talks were held in Geneva, Switzerland, from May 10 to 11. The two sides agreed to establish a Sino-US economic and trade consultation mechanism and will finalize relevant details as soon as possible and issue a joint statement on May 12 [1][5][10]. Industry Situation - Last week, the rebar output was 2.24 million tons, a decrease of 10 tons compared to the previous week. The apparent demand was 2.14 million tons, a decrease of 780,000 tons. The rebar inventory at mills was 1.88 million tons, an increase of 150,000 tons, and the social inventory was 4.65 million tons, a decrease of 50,000 tons. The total inventory was 6.54 million tons, an increase of 100,000 tons [1][6]. - The hot-rolled coil output was 3.2 million tons, an increase of 10,000 tons. The inventory at mills was 850,000 tons, a decrease of 10,000 tons, and the social inventory was 2.8 million tons, an increase of 120,000 tons. The total inventory was 3.65 million tons, an increase of 110,000 tons. The apparent demand was 3.1 million tons, a decrease of 230,000 tons [1][6]. Industry News - The high-level Sino-US economic and trade talks from May 10 to 11 in Geneva were candid, in-depth, and constructive, reaching important consensus and achieving substantial progress. The two sides agreed to establish a Sino-US economic and trade consultation mechanism [10]. - The Ministry of Commerce responded to the Sino-US economic and trade dialogue and consultation, stating that China has noticed the US high-level's multiple statements expressing willingness to negotiate on tariff issues with China. The US has also actively conveyed information to China through relevant channels, and China is evaluating the situation [10]. - On May 7, three departments issued a package of financial policies to stabilize the market and expectations, including measures from the central bank, the Financial Regulatory Administration, and the China Securities Regulatory Commission [10]. Relevant Charts - The report includes charts on the futures and monthly spreads of rebar and hot-rolled coils, the basis of rebar and hot-rolled coils, the regional price differences of rebar and hot-rolled coil spot, the smelting profits of long-process steel mills, the profits of short-process electric furnaces in East China, the blast furnace operating rate of 247 domestic steel mills, the daily average pig iron output of 247 steel mills, the output of rebar and hot-rolled coils, the social and mill inventories of rebar and hot-rolled coils, the total inventories of rebar and hot-rolled coils, and the apparent consumption of rebar and hot-rolled coils [9][11][13]

Overseas Macro - The US Federal Reserve maintained the federal funds rate target range at 4.25%-4.50%, aligning with market expectations[4] - The Fed emphasized increased uncertainty in economic outlook, with rising risks for both unemployment and inflation[4] - Market expectations for a rate cut in June have been largely absorbed, while the outlook for three rate cuts within the year remains unchanged[4] Domestic Macro - In response to US-China trade negotiations, China implemented new domestic growth stabilization policies, including a 50 basis point reserve requirement ratio cut and a 10 basis point interest rate cut[3] - April CPI recorded a year-on-year decline of -0.1%, while PPI fell by -2.7% year-on-year, indicating weak price levels[6] - April exports grew by 8.1% year-on-year, significantly exceeding the expected 1.9%, driven by strong re-export trade with ASEAN countries[13] Risks - Potential risks include US tariff negotiations falling short of expectations, domestic policy effectiveness not meeting projections, and international geopolitical tensions[3]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week, the prices of various oils showed different trends. BMD Malaysian palm oil and domestic palm oil futures prices declined, while ICE canola futures prices rose. The price of domestic rapeseed oil futures also increased, and the price of domestic soybean oil futures slightly decreased [4][7]. - After the holiday, palm oil was weak due to the arrival of the production - increasing season in the producing areas, a significant increase in production, limited support from export demand, and expected increases in domestic and foreign inventories. Canola prices continued to strengthen due to increased crushing demand and low domestic inventories. Domestic rapeseed oil was relatively strong because of expected import tightening. US soybean oil prices declined as the US biodiesel policy was not authorized and the budget might be cut [4][7]. - Macro - economically, the China - US economic and trade negotiations reached an important consensus, and the US stock market continued a small - scale rebound. The US dollar index might stabilize at a low level, and crude oil prices might stop falling and enter a volatile phase. Fundamentally, in the production - increasing cycle, production increased significantly, export demand improvement was limited, and domestic inventories were expected to rise. Palm oil might operate in a weak and volatile manner [4][11]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Data - The price changes of various oil contracts from April 30 to May 9 are as follows: CBOT soybean oil main contract decreased by 0.33 cents/lb to 48.64 cents/lb, a decline of 0.67%; BMD Malaysian palm oil main contract decreased by 95 ringgit/ton to 3815 ringgit/ton, a decline of 2.43%; DCE palm oil decreased by 262 yuan/ton to 7886 yuan/ton, a decline of 3.22%; DCE soybean oil decreased by 52 yuan/ton to 7780 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.66%; CZCE rapeseed oil increased by 58 yuan/ton to 9355 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.62%. The futures price difference between soybean oil and palm oil increased by 210 yuan/ton to - 106 yuan/ton, and the futures price difference between rapeseed oil and soybean oil increased by 110 yuan/ton to 1575 yuan/ton. Spot prices also showed corresponding changes [5]. Market Analysis and Outlook - **Price Trends**: After the holiday, palm oil was weak, canola strengthened, domestic rapeseed oil was relatively strong, and US soybean oil declined [4][7]. - **Production and Inventory Forecasts**: According to Reuters, Malaysia's palm oil inventory in April 2025 was expected to be 1.79 million tons, a 14.8% increase from March; production was expected to be 1.62 million tons, a 16.9% increase from March; and exports were expected to be 1.1 million tons, a 9.7% increase from March. As of May 2, the total inventory of the three major oils in key domestic areas was 1.7788 million tons, an increase of 0.0169 million tons from the previous week and 0.0998 million tons from the same period last year [8][10]. - **Macro and Fundamental Analysis**: Macro - economically, the China - US economic and trade negotiations improved the market sentiment. Fundamentally, in the production - increasing cycle, production increased significantly, export demand improvement was limited, and domestic inventories were expected to rise. Palm oil might operate in a weak and volatile manner [4][11]. Industry News - **Indonesia's Biodiesel**: As of April 24, Indonesia's biodiesel consumption this year was 4.44 million liters, and the mandatory palm oil blending ratio in biodiesel this year was 40%, higher than last year's 35% [12]. - **India's Oil Imports**: In April, India's palm oil imports decreased by 24% month - on - month to 322,000 tons, while soybean oil imports increased by 2% to 363,000 tons, and sunflower oil imports decreased by nearly 6% to 180,000 tons. The total edible oil imports in April decreased by 11% month - on - month to 865,000 tons [12][13]. - **Myanmar's Palm Oil Market**: The wholesale reference price of palm oil in Yangon decreased from 6,735 kyats per viss (about 1.5 kg) last week to 6,700 kyats per viss. Myanmar imports about 700,000 tons of palm oil annually to meet domestic demand [13]. - **Malaysia's Palm Oil Production**: Malaysia's palm oil production in the 2024/25 season was expected to be 19 million tons, with a less - than - 1% upward revision from the previous forecast. The production in both the Malaysian Peninsula and East Malaysia increased seasonally [14]. - **Indonesia's Palm Oil Production**: Indonesia's palm oil production in the 2024/25 season was expected to be 48.8 million tons, unchanged from the previous forecast. Although some areas faced local floods in April, it was not expected to hinder the overall crop recovery [15]. Relevant Charts - The report provides multiple charts showing the price trends, price differences, import profits, and inventory changes of palm oil, soybean oil, rapeseed oil, and related products in Malaysia and Indonesia [16][17][18]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The fundamental outlook for lithium carbonate remains bearish, with the potential for new lows in lithium prices. Although some smelters have cut or halted production due to the rapid decline in lithium prices, the marginal change in domestic supply is uncertain. Imported resources are expected to increase, and upstream production is expected to increase while costs decrease. There is no expected increase in demand, as the weak trend in terminal consumption is emerging, and the new replacement policy's ability to drive potential consumption is waning, which may suppress downstream purchasing power. The short - term decline in prices may be limited, and it is advisable to stay on the sidelines [3][13] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Data - From May 6 to May 9, 2025, the prices of imported lithium raw ore, imported and domestic lithium concentrates, battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate, and battery - grade lithium hydroxide all decreased. The exchange rate of the US dollar against the RMB increased by 0.40%. The total lithium carbonate inventory decreased by 2,807 tons (-2.97%). The price of lithium iron phosphate decreased by 2.75%, while the prices of cobalt - lithium oxide and ternary materials remained unchanged [5] Market Analysis and Outlook Last Week's Market Analysis - As of May 12, 2025, the total warehouse receipt scale on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange was 36,351 tons, and the latest matching transaction price was 63,820 yuan/ton. The open interest of the main contract 2507 was 289,400 lots. As of May 9, the weekly production of lithium carbonate was 16,048 tons, a decrease of 128 tons from the previous period. Some hard - rock lithium extraction plants have cut or halted production, and the increase in production from the resumption of maintenance in May may be limited. Attention should be paid to the progress of salt - lake production [7] - In March, the import volume of lithium carbonate was about 18,100 tons, a month - on - month increase of 47% and a year - on - year decrease of 4.8%. The import volume from Chile was 12,700 tons, a month - on - month increase of 67.9% and a year - on - year decrease of 22%. The import volume from Argentina was 4,646 tons, a month - on - month increase of 5.9% and a year - on - year increase of 86.3%. The increase in lithium salt shipped from Chile in March may push up the domestic supply scale in May. In March, the import volume of lithium ore was about 534,500 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 5.8% [8][9] - In terms of downstream cathode materials, as of May 9, the production of lithium iron phosphate was about 63,442 tons, with an operating rate of 58.6% (a decrease of 1.14 percentage points from the previous period), and the inventory was 37,620 tons (a decrease of 535 tons from the previous period). The production of ternary materials was about 14,555 tons, with an operating rate of 40.0% (a decrease of 5.84 percentage points from the previous period), and the inventory was 13,930 tons (an increase of 205 tons from the previous period). The prices of ternary materials declined slightly, while the prices of lithium iron phosphate decreased slightly. Although the cathode material production schedule in May continued to expand, the terminal consumption was weak, and the cathode materials still faced over - capacity pressure [9][10] - In the new energy vehicle market, from April 1 - 30, the retail sales of new energy passenger vehicles in the country were 922,000, a year - on - year increase of 37% and a month - on - month decrease of 7%. The retail penetration rate of the new energy market was 52.3%. The new energy consumption growth rate showed a pulsed pattern, and the potential consumption driven by policies was waning. The growth rate may decline significantly in the future [11] - As of May 9, the total lithium carbonate inventory was 91,762 tons, a decrease of about 2,807 tons from the previous period. The factory inventory increased by 21 tons, and the market inventory decreased by 2,828 tons. The social inventory decreased, but downstream purchasing did not pick up, and there was still strong wait - and - see sentiment. If prices stabilize, downstream may have a strong restocking expectation [12] This Week's Outlook - The fundamental outlook remains bearish, and the bearish sentiment persists. Although the short - term decline may be limited due to the strong resistance around 63,000 yuan, it is advisable to stay on the sidelines [13] Industry News - During the "May Day" holiday in 2025, the national consumer market was prosperous. The subsidy application volume for automobile trade - ins exceeded 3 million. The sales of home appliances, automobiles, and communication equipment monitored by the Ministry of Commerce increased year - on - year. The service consumption continued to heat up [14] - On May 7, the General Office of the Guangdong Provincial People's Government issued a notice to encourage Guangzhou and Shenzhen to further relax vehicle purchase restrictions [14] Relevant Charts - The report provides multiple charts showing the price trends of lithium carbonate futures, battery - grade lithium hydroxide, imported lithium concentrates, and the production and supply structure of lithium carbonate, lithium hydroxide, lithium iron phosphate, ternary materials, and related battery products [16][18][21][24][27]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Last week, the main contract price of Shanghai zinc futures fluctuated weakly. The Fed maintained the interest rate but kept the possibility of a rate cut. The US and the UK reached a tariff agreement, and China and the US held talks. China introduced a package of financial policies, and exports in April showed strong resilience, improving market risk appetite [3][9]. - Fundamentally, mines are steadily ramping up production, and processing fees at home and abroad have increased month - on - month. However, as zinc prices have fallen, mines are less willing to offer concessions, and the increase in processing fees has slowed. In May, smelters are both reducing and resuming production, and the output of refined zinc is expected to remain flat month - on - month. The import window for zinc ingots has gradually opened since late April, and some imported goods have flowed in recently, keeping the supply pressure at a relatively high level [4][9]. - On the demand side, after the holiday, enterprises resumed work, and the operating rates of various primary sectors increased to varying degrees. High - voltage orders supported the tower orders, but galvanized pipe enterprises planned to cut production due to price competition. Electronic alloy orders were good, while traditional hardware accessory orders were poor, and some alloy terminal export orders decreased recently. Orders for rubber - grade and feed - grade zinc oxide decreased, while ceramic - grade orders were stable [4][9]. - Overall, the China - US trade negotiations and the release of domestic favorable policies have restored market sentiment, but there is still uncertainty in tariff negotiations. Fundamentally, there is an expectation of marginal weakening. The high output of refined zinc and the supplement of imported zinc ingots keep the supply pressure high. As the peak season is coming to an end, the enthusiasm for purchasing and restocking has weakened, and the support of the low - inventory logic has been weakened. It is expected that zinc prices will fluctuate weakly to find support [4][9] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Transaction Data - From April 30th to May 9th, the SHFE zinc price dropped from 22,440 yuan/ton to 22,175 yuan/ton, a decrease of 265 yuan/ton; the LME zinc price rose from 2,588 dollars/ton to 2,636 dollars/ton, an increase of 48 dollars/ton; the Shanghai - London ratio decreased from 8.67 to 8.41, a decrease of 0.26; the SHFE inventory decreased from 48,477 tons to 47,102 tons, a decrease of 1,375 tons; the LME inventory decreased from 173,900 tons to 170,650 tons, a decrease of 3,250 tons; the social inventory increased from 7.7 million tons to 8.33 million tons, an increase of 0.63 million tons; the spot premium increased from 160 yuan/ton to 500 yuan/ton, an increase of 340 yuan/ton [5] 2. Market Review - Last week, the main contract of Shanghai zinc futures, ZN2506, continued to fluctuate weakly, closing at 22,190 yuan/ton, a weekly decline of 1.11%. LME zinc fluctuated sideways, closing at 2,655.5 dollars/ton, a weekly increase of 1.55% [6]. - In the spot market, by May 9th, the mainstream transaction price of Shanghai 0 zinc was concentrated between 22,825 - 22,955 yuan/ton, with a premium of 580 - 590 yuan/ton over the 2506 contract. In the second half of the week, the inflow of imported zinc ingots improved market arrivals, but downstream purchases were average, and traders gradually lowered the premium quotes, resulting in weak spot trading [6]. - In terms of inventory, by May 9th, the LME zinc inventory was 170,325 tons, a weekly decrease of 3,250 tons; the SHFE inventory was 47,102 tons, a decrease of 1,375 tons from last week. By May 8th, the social inventory was 8.33 million tons, an increase of 0.63 million tons from April 30th and a decrease of 0.08 million tons from May 6th [7]. - Macroscopically, the Fed kept the federal funds rate target range unchanged at 4.25% - 4.5%. The FOMC statement said that the uncertainty of the economic outlook has further increased. Chinese Vice - Premier He Lifeng will hold talks with US Treasury Secretary Bezant during his visit to Switzerland. The US and the UK reached a tariff trade agreement. China's three departments issued a package of financial policies, including a 0.5 - percentage - point cut in the reserve requirement ratio and a 0.1 - percentage - point cut in policy interest rates. China's inflation remained low in April, with CPI at - 0.1% year - on - year and PPI at - 2.7% year - on - year. Exports maintained resilience, with an 8.1% growth rate in April [7][8] 3. Industry News - As of the week of May 9th, the weekly processing fees for domestic and foreign zinc concentrates were reported at 3,500 yuan/metal ton and 40 dollars/dry ton respectively, with a month - on - month increase of 50 yuan/metal ton for domestic and no change for foreign [10]. - A galvanizing plant in the north recently put into operation a new 150,000 - ton galvanizing production line, with a total designed capacity of 500,000 tons, expected to be fully put into production in 2027 [10]. - Lundin Mining's Neves - Corvo mine produced about 27,700 tons of zinc concentrate and about 2,000 tons of lead concentrate in the first quarter, up 4.5% and 24% year - on - year respectively; Zinkgruvan produced about 21,300 tons of zinc concentrate and about 7,600 tons of lead concentrate, up 10.7% and 12.4% year - on - year respectively. These two mines were officially acquired by Swedish mining company Boliden on April 16th this year [10]. - Teck is considering shifting the products of its Red Dog zinc mine in Alaska from the Chinese market to other regions to avoid tariff risks. The mine's output accounts for about 5% of the global zinc supply and 2.5% of lead, and currently more than 20% of its zinc concentrate is sold to China [11]. - Glencore's self - owned zinc production in Q1 2025 was 213,600 tons, 4% higher than in Q1 2024, and its self - owned zinc production guidance for 2025 is 930,000 - 990,000 tons [11]. - Volcan's zinc concentrate metal output in Q1 2025 totaled 57,400 tons, a 10% decrease quarter - on - quarter and a 14% increase year - on - year. Its zinc concentrate production guidance for 2025 is 250,000 - 255,000 tons [11] 4. Related Charts - The report provides 14 charts, including price trends of Shanghai and LME zinc, internal and external price ratios, spot premiums and discounts, inventory situations, zinc ore processing fees, zinc ore import profits and losses, domestic refined zinc production, smelter profits, refined zinc net imports, and downstream primary enterprise operating rates [13][16][18]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The iron ore market is expected to show a volatile trend. The supply is generally loose as overseas shipments are on the rise and major mines' shipments are gradually recovering, despite a decline in arrivals last week. On the demand side, although steel mills' profitability improved last week, leading to increased production and a slight rise in molten iron output, downstream demand weakened, and molten iron output is expected to decline in the next period. At the macro - level, domestic growth - stabilizing policies have been implemented, and significant progress has been made in China - US economic and trade talks [1][5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Transaction Data | Contract | Closing Price | Change | Change Rate (%) | Total Trading Volume (Lots) | Total Open Interest (Lots) | Price Unit | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | SHFE Rebar | 3022 | -74 | -2.39 | 8123194 | 2893444 | Yuan/ton | | SHFE Hot - Rolled Coil | 3157 | -47 | -1.47 | 2485168 | 1395031 | Yuan/ton | | DCE Iron Ore | 696.0 | -7.5 | -1.07 | 1895858 | 699233 | Yuan/ton | | DCE Coking Coal | 877.5 | -53.0 | -5.70 | 1356112 | 418835 | Yuan/ton | | DCE Coke | 1446.5 | -91.5 | -5.95 | 98662 | 50876 | Yuan/ton | [2] 3.2 Market Review - **Demand Side**: Last week, steel mills' profitability improved, leading to active production and a slight increase in molten iron output. However, downstream demand weakened, and molten iron output is expected to decline in the next period. The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 84.62%, a 0.29 - percentage - point increase from the previous week and a 3.12 - percentage - point increase year - on - year. The blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate was 92.09%, a 0.09 - percentage - point increase from the previous week and a 4.42 - percentage - point increase year - on - year. The steel mill profitability rate was 58.87%, a 2.59 - percentage - point increase from the previous week and a 6.92 - percentage - point increase year - on - year. The daily average molten iron output was 2.4564 million tons, a 0.22 - million - ton increase from the previous week and an 11.14 - million - ton increase year - on - year [4]. - **Supply Side**: Last week, both shipments and arrivals declined month - on - month, maintaining a medium level. The total iron ore shipments from Australia and Brazil were 25.404 million tons, a decrease of 2.18 million tons from the previous week. Australian shipments were 17.692 million tons, a decrease of 2.26 million tons from the previous week, and the amount shipped from Australia to China was 15.184 million tons, a decrease of 1.288 million tons from the previous week. Brazilian shipments were 7.712 million tons, an increase of 0.08 million tons from the previous week. The total global iron ore shipments were 30.505 million tons, a decrease of 1.377 million tons from the previous week. The inventory of imported iron ore at 47 ports across the country was 147.6471 million tons, a decrease of 0.8356 million tons from the previous week, and the daily average port clearance volume was 3.2851 million tons, a decrease of 0.1673 million tons [5]. 3.3 Industry News - China - US economic and trade high - level talks were held in Geneva, Switzerland, from May 10th to 11th. The talks were candid, in - depth, and constructive, reaching important consensus and making substantial progress. The two sides agreed to establish a China - US economic and trade consultation mechanism [9]. - In April, the Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) was 49.0%, a 1.5 - percentage - point decrease from the previous month, indicating a decline in the manufacturing prosperity level [9]. - The Federal Reserve announced to maintain the target range of the federal funds rate between 4.25% and 4.50%, which was in line with market expectations. This was the third consecutive time since January this year that the Fed kept the interest rate unchanged. After the Fed's interest rate decision was announced, traders still expected the Fed to cut interest rates before July and predicted three interest rate cuts this year [9]. - On May 7th, three departments issued a package of financial policies to stabilize the market and expectations. The central bank announced ten policy measures, including a 0.5 - percentage - point comprehensive reserve requirement ratio cut, a 0.1 - percentage - point reduction in policy interest rates, a 0.25 - percentage - point reduction in the interest rates of structural monetary policy tools and provident fund loans, and the establishment of a 500 - billion - yuan "service consumption and elderly care re - loan". The Financial Regulatory Administration will introduce eight incremental policies, including accelerating the introduction of a financing system suitable for the new real - estate development model and approving a 60 - billion - yuan long - term investment pilot for insurance funds. The China Securities Regulatory Commission will fully support Central Huijin to play the role of a quasi - "stabilization fund" and introduce policies and measures to deepen the reform of the Science and Technology Innovation Board and the Growth Enterprise Market [9]. 3.4 Related Charts The report provides multiple charts showing the trends of futures and spot prices, basis, production, inventory, and consumption in the iron ore and steel industries, including the trends of rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore futures and spot prices, steel mill profits, steel production, and port inventories [7][10][12].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Views - Overseas: US tariff negotiations have made progress, with substantial progress in China-US economic and trade talks and a limited trade agreement between the US and the UK. The Fed kept interest rates unchanged in May, and the market has digested the expectation of no rate cut in June, but the expectation of three rate cuts this year remains. Attention this week is on US April CPI and retail data [2] - Domestic: On May 7, three financial ministries held a press conference to implement a new round of domestic growth-stabilizing policies. The market risk appetite was boosted. April price data was weak as expected, and April export growth far exceeded expectations [3] Summary by Directory Overseas Macro - The Fed maintained the federal funds rate target range at 4.25%-4.50% in May, emphasizing increased uncertainty in the economic outlook and rising risks of unemployment and inflation. Powell adopted a "wait-and-see" stance, and the market has digested the expectation of no rate cut in June, while the expectation of three rate cuts this year remains [4] Domestic Macro - Price levels declined again in April. CPI was -0.1% year-on-year, and PPI was -2.7% year-on-year. Oil prices and transportation items dragged down CPI, and core CPI remained flat. Industrial product prices were weak, with non-ferrous metals being strong and petroleum and black metals being weak [6][7] - China's April foreign trade data exceeded expectations. Exports were 8.1% year-on-year, and imports were -0.2% year-on-year. The trade surplus was $96.18 billion. The strong re-export trade, especially to the ASEAN market, drove the overall export recovery [13] Performance of Major Asset Classes - Equity: Most A-share indices rose last week, with the GEM Index rising 3.27%. Among Hong Kong stocks, the Hang Seng Index rose 3.38%. Among overseas stocks, the German DAX rose 4.46% [17] - Bond: Domestic bond yields generally declined, and overseas bond yields showed mixed trends. The 10Y-1Y domestic bond term spread widened by 4.88 BP [20] - Commodity: The Nanhua Commodity Index fell 0.84%, and the CRB Commodity Index rose 1.66%. COMEX gold rose 2.65%, and WTI crude oil rose 4.75% [21] - Foreign Exchange: The US dollar index rose 0.38%. The US dollar against the RMB fell 0.24%, and the euro against the RMB fell 1.31% [24] High-Frequency Data Tracking - Domestic: Data on urban congestion, subway passenger volume, real estate transactions, passenger car sales, and steel consumption are presented [26] - Overseas: Data on US retail sales, unemployment claims, bond yield spreads, and Fed interest rate change probabilities are presented [31] This Week's Important Economic Data and Events - This week, important economic data and events include China's April M2 money supply growth rate, the eurozone's May ZEW economic sentiment index, and the US April CPI and retail sales data [38]