投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可[2015]84 号 商品日报 20250703 联系人 李婷、黄蕾、高慧、王工建、赵凯熙 电子邮箱 jytzzx@jyqh.com.cn 电话 021-68555105 主要品种观点 宏观：美元指数止步九连跌，国内市场响应"反内卷"政策 海外方面，特朗普宣布与越南达成贸易协议，越南市场将全面向美开放，并同意对输美 商品征收 20%关税、对转运货物征收 40%关税，突显美国打击转口贸易的意图。美国 6 月 "小非农"录得-3.3 万人，创 2023 年 3 月以来最大降幅，近期就业数据冷暖不一，关注今 日晚间非农就业数据。目前市场几乎定价美联储将在 9 月前降息，美元指数震荡上涨、结束 9 连跌，美股再创新高，黄金、原油与铜价齐涨。 国内方面，市场对"反内卷、出清落后产能"政策反映积极，长期产能过剩的内需品种 （新能源、黑色、生猪）迎来显著反弹，相较于 2015 年以去产能为核心、聚焦上游行业的 供给侧改革，本轮"反内卷"政策更倾向于调整中下游产业结构，着力缓解部分中下游行业 的过度竞争与无效内卷，以缓解物价低迷的困局。目前处于"反内卷"叙事的初期，从预期 走向落地，预期到现实仍需 ...

投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可[2015]84 号 商品日报 20250702 联系人 李婷、黄蕾、高慧、王工建、赵凯熙 电子邮箱 jytzzx@jyqh.com.cn 电话 021-68555105 主要品种观点 宏观：美参议院通过大美丽法案，国内推进统一大市场 海外方面，美国参议院以微弱优势通过特朗普《大美丽法案》，该法案目前在众议院等 待最终批准，特朗普力争在 7 月 4 日独立日前完成签署。关税方面，特朗普称美印或将达成 贸易协议，但对与日本达成协议表示怀疑，并暗示对日进口商品关税或升至 30%-35%（原 24%）。美国 5 月职位空缺数升至去年 11 月来新高，就业需求仍具有韧劲，鲍威尔重申"先 观察再行动"，称经济稳健可容耐心评估关税影响，通胀温和保留宽松空间，并暗示若无关 税因素，原本将继续降息。美元延续弱势，创年内新低至 96.37，关注短期反弹的可能，美 股走势分化，黄金、原油与铜价齐涨。 国内方面，习近平主持中央财经委会议，强调推进统一大市场、发展海洋经济，治理低 价竞争，引导提质增效，推动落后产能退出，有助于缓解当前物价低迷的局面。6 月财新制 造业 PMI 回升至 50.4，重返扩张区 ...

2025 年 6 月 30 日 美指连续回落 铝价偏好 核心观点及策略 投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可【2015】84 号 李婷 021-68555105 li.t@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F0297587 投资咨询号：Z0011509 黄蕾 huang.lei@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F0307990 投资咨询号：Z0011692 高慧 gao.h@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F03099478 投资咨询号：Z0017785 王工建 wang.gj@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F3084165 投资咨询号：Z0016301 赵凯熙 zhao.kx@jygh.com.cn 从业资格号：F031122984 投资咨询号：Z00210404 敬请参阅最后一页免责声明 1 / 7 铝周报 ⚫ 上周伊以冲突缓和，市场避险情绪回落。美国一季度 GDP下修幅度高于预期，美联储官员发言鹰派，降息 预期推后，美指连续回落，利好金属普涨。基本面， 国内电解铝运行产能持稳，但下游消费转弱，铸锭量 有所回升，国内社会库存去库幅度明显放缓。电解铝 锭库存46.3万吨，环比减少0.1万吨；国内主流 ...

2025 年 6 月 30 日 中东局势缓和，金价高位回调 核心观点及策略 投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可【2015】84 号 贵金属周报 李婷 021-68555105 li.t@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F0297587 投资咨询号：Z0011509 黄蕾 huang.lei@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F0307990 投资咨询号：Z0011692 高慧 gao.h@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F03099478 投资咨询号：Z0017785 王工建 wang.gj@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F3084165 投资咨询号：Z0016301 赵凯熙 zhao.kx@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F03112296 投资咨询号：Z0021040 敬请参阅最后一页免责声明 1 / 10 ⚫ 上周贵金属价格震荡回调，主要因以色列和伊朗同意全面 停火，以及美联储主席鲍威尔表示没有降息紧迫性，降低 市场宽松预期。另外，中美达成一项关于稀土供应的贸易 协议。两国关系缓和的信号，避险资产黄金价格出现明显 回调。而银价受铂金和钯金却表现强劲影响而表现得更为 坚挺，在上周五银价也出现 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The State Council will issue the third - batch of funds for consumer goods trade - in this July and promote the equipment update loan discount policy to reduce the financing cost of business entities. The steel supply increased last week, driving up raw material demand and strengthening cost support, which in turn led to a rebound in steel prices. Although the apparent demand decreased slightly, in line with the off - season characteristics, it is expected that steel prices will fluctuate and rebound in the short term due to cost - push factors [1][5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Transaction Data | Contract | Closing Price | Change | Change Rate (%) | Total Volume (Lots) | Total Open Interest (Lots) | Price Unit | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | SHFE Rebar | 2995 | 3 | 0.10 | 7455274 | 3091097 | Yuan/ton | | SHFE Hot - Rolled Coil | 3121 | 5 | 0.16 | 2632410 | 1510669 | Yuan/ton | | DCE Iron Ore | 716.5 | 13.5 | 1.92 | 1692774 | 654225 | Yuan/ton | | DCE Coking Coal | 847.5 | 52.5 | 6.60 | 5225301 | 733946 | Yuan/ton | | DCE Coke | 1421.5 | 37.0 | 2.67 | 144716 | 56720 | Yuan/ton | [2] 3.2 Market Review - Last week, steel futures fluctuated and rebounded. The macro - level policy of consumer goods trade - in and the increase in steel production at the fundamental level supported the raw material demand and cost. In the spot market, the price of Tangshan billet was 2910 (- 10) Yuan/ton, Shanghai rebar was quoted at 3080 (- 10) Yuan/ton, and Shanghai hot - rolled coil was 3190 (- 10) Yuan/ton [4] 3.3 Industry News - On June 26, the third - batch of funds for consumer goods trade - in will be issued in July, and the national subsidy fund usage plan will be formulated monthly and weekly. Recently, inspections in Linfen, Shanxi are frequent. Two coal mines in Pu County stopped production due to environmental protection, with a production capacity of 330 million tons. Some coal mines and coal - washing plants are still shut down, and the supply in Linfen continues to shrink. The state will support equipment updates with 200 billion Yuan of ultra - long - term special treasury bond funds this year, with the first batch of about 173 billion Yuan already allocated to about 7,500 projects in 16 fields, and the second batch is under project review and screening [7][10] 3.4 Relevant Charts - The report includes charts such as the trend of rebar and hot - rolled coil futures and their spreads, basis, spot regional price differences, steel mill profits, blast furnace operating rates, steel production, inventory, and apparent consumption from 2021 to 2025 [9][11][16]

豆粕周报 2025 年 6 月 30 日 多重利空因素作用 连粕震荡回落 核心观点及策略 投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可【2015】84 号 李婷 021-68555105 li.t@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F0297587 投资咨询号：Z0011509 黄蕾 huang.lei@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F0307990 投资咨询号：Z0011692 高慧 gao.h@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F03099478 投资咨询号：Z0017785 赵凯熙 zhao.kx@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F03112296 投资咨询号：Z0021040 敬请参阅最后一页免责声明 1 / 11 ⚫ 上周，CBOT美豆11月合约跌35.25收于1025.25美分/蒲式 耳，跌幅3.32%；豆粕09合约跌121收于2946元/吨，跌幅 3.95%；华南豆粕现货跌120收于2800元/吨，跌幅4.11%；菜 粕09合约跌120收于2559元/吨，跌幅4.48%；广西菜粕现货 跌160收于2410元/吨，跌幅6.23%。 ⚫ 美豆上周持续回落，整体处于震荡区间，主要是以伊达成 停火协议，地 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Last week, the main contract of BMD Malaysian palm oil dropped 103 to close at 4,012 ringgit/ton, a decline of 2.5%; the palm oil 09 contract fell 160 to close at 8,376 yuan/ton, a decline of 1.87%; the soybean oil 09 contract dropped 154 to close at 8,002 yuan/ton, a decline of 1.89%; the rapeseed oil 09 contract fell 260 to close at 9,466 yuan/ton, a decline of 2.67%; the main contract of CBOT US soybean oil dropped 2.42 to close at 52.62 cents/pound, a decline of 4.4%; the active contract of ICE rapeseed dropped 42.8 to close at 698.7 Canadian dollars/ton, a decline of 5.77% [4][7] - The overall oil and fat sector oscillated and declined, mainly due to the easing of the conflict between Israel and Iran. After the cease - fire agreement took effect, the impact of the Middle - East geopolitical conflict weakened, and the sharp decline in oil prices dragged down the oil and fat sector. High - frequency data showed that the production of Malaysian palm oil in June might increase moderately, the growth rate of export demand narrowed, and the inventory at the end of June was expected to continue to increase, in a seasonal inventory - building process. The domestic palm oil was in the inventory - building rhythm, and the tight pattern improved [4][7] - Macroeconomically, the US Treasury Secretary hinted that tariffs might be extended until September 1st. US economic data weakened, the expectation of interest - rate cuts increased, the US stock market performed strongly, and the US dollar index oscillated weakly. Oil prices entered an oscillatory adjustment stage after sharp fluctuations. Fundamentally, Brazil raised the mandatory blending ratio of biodiesel from 14% to 15%, which boosted the market. It was expected that the inventory of Malaysian palm oil at the end of June would continue to increase, and the overall supply was in a loose process, waiting for the release of the MPOB report. Palm oil purchases arrived at ports one after another, inventory rebounded, the previous pattern of rigid - demand procurement eased, and trading volume increased during the week. Overall, palm oil might oscillate in the short term [4][11] Group 3: Summary According to the Table of Contents Market Data - The table shows the price, change, and change rate of various contracts such as CBOT soybean oil main contract, BMD Malaysian palm oil main contract, etc. from June 20th to June 27th, including futures and spot prices [5] Market Analysis and Outlook - The oil and fat sector declined due to geopolitical factors and inventory changes. Different institutions had different data on the production and export of Malaysian palm oil. For example, from June 1 - 25, 2025, the production data from SPPOMA showed an increase, while MPOA and UOB data showed different degrees of decrease. Export data from ITS, AmSpec, and SGS also varied. The MPOB agency lowered the reference price of Malaysian crude palm oil in July, and the export tax rate decreased. GAPKI data showed that Indonesia's palm oil export volume in April decreased compared with the previous year, while production increased and inventory reached 3.04 million tons at the end of April [7][8][9] - As of June 20, 2025, the inventory of the three major oils in key national regions increased compared with the previous week and the same period last year. As of June 27, 2025, the weekly average daily trading volume of soybean oil decreased, while that of palm oil increased [10] Industry News - Malaysia signed the MEEPA, which will reduce import tariffs through a tariff - quota mechanism, and the tariff reduction range is between 20% and 40% according to product categories. The agreement also achieved three key results for sustainable palm oil [12] - Traders warned that due to the congestion at Kandla Port, there might be a shortage and supply interruption of edible oil in India. Many ships carrying Indonesian palm oil were waiting to unload [12][13] - Malaysia established a special committee to strengthen its response to the EU's zero - deforestation law, aiming to ensure its low - risk country status and strengthen the traceability system [13] Relevant Charts - There are multiple charts showing the price trends of Malaysian palm oil, US soybean oil, three major oil futures, and spot prices of palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil, as well as the price differences, import profits, monthly production, export, and inventory of palm oil in Malaysia and Indonesia, and the commercial inventory of domestic three major oils [15][16][19]

铜周报 美元走弱，铜价向上突破 核心观点及策略 ⚫ 上周铜价震荡上行，特朗普拟在鲍威尔任期结束前提前安 排影子主席，以推进其快速降息的设想，而美国一季度GDP 环比终值转负及5月个人消费环比支出下降令市场看空美 元情绪升温，降息预期的抬升及疲软的美元走势不断提振 铜价。基本面来看，全球精矿精确程度超预期，LME显性 库存持续下滑，LME0-3的BACK结构十分拥挤，国内社会库 存偏低，全球精铜紧平衡结构加剧既为铜价中期构建坚实 底部，也为铜价上行提供了良好的支撑。 投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可【2015】84 号 李婷 021-68555105 li.t@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F0297587 投资咨询号：Z0011509 黄蕾 huang.lei@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F0307990 投资咨询号：Z0011692 高慧 gao.h@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F03099478 投资咨询号：Z0017785 王工建 wang.gj@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F03084165 投资咨询号：Z0016301 赵凯熙 zhao.kx@jyqh.com.cn 从业资 ...

021-68555105 li.t@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F0297587 投资咨询号：Z0011509 黄蕾 铁矿周报 2025 年 6 月 30 日 短线情绪好转 铁矿承压反弹 核心观点及策略 投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可【2015】84 号 李婷 huang.lei@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F0307990 投资咨询号：Z0011692 高慧 gao.h@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F03099478 投资咨询号：Z0017785 王工建 wang.gj@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F3084165 投资咨询号：Z0016301 赵凯熙 zhao.kx@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F03112296 投资咨询号：Z0021040 敬请参阅最后一页免责声明 1/11 | 合约 | 收盘价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅% | 总成交量/手 | 总持仓量/手 | 价格单位 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | SHFE 螺纹钢 | 2995 | 3 | 0.10 | 7455274 | 3091097 | 元/ ...

碳酸锂周报 盘面脱实向虚 锂价或将回调 核心观点及策略 2024 年 6 月 30 日 投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可【2015】84 号 李婷 021-68555105 li.t@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F0297587 投资咨询号：Z0011509 黄蕾 huang.lei@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F0307990 投资咨询号：Z0011692 高慧 gao.h@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F03099478 投资咨询号：Z0017785 王工建 wang.gj@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F3084165 投资咨询号：Z0016301 赵凯熙 zhao.kx@jygh.com. cn 从业资格号：F03112296 投资咨询号：20021040 敬请参阅最后一页免责声明 1 / 9 ⚫ 基本面：资源端暂无扰动，港口矿库存虽有去化，但整体 维持高位。盘面价格上涨提振现货商积极出货，但下游接 货意愿不强，材料厂刚需采买，现货资源充裕，市场交投 相对平稳。储能市场热度延续，动力终端消费尚可，但有 部分车企计划缩减排产。 ⚫ 成本方面：报告期内，受盘面价格上涨提振，锂矿价格 ...