1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week, industrial silicon prices fluctuated upwards. The main reasons are that the production cut of polysilicon next year is almost certain, the supply - demand structure of the upstream and mid - stream silicon material industry continues to improve, and the sentiment in the industrial product market is high. The supply side is marginally shrinking, and the demand side shows different trends in each segment. The social inventory of industrial silicon dropped to 553,000 tons, and the spot market generally rose due to the rebound in futures prices [2][5][9]. - Overall, the establishment of the new polysilicon platform promotes the continuous improvement of the supply - demand structure in the silicon material market. The upward shift of the center of the polysilicon futures price boosts the market confidence of the photovoltaic industry. It is expected that China's photovoltaic anti - involution will enter a critical stage next year. Technically, the main contract continues to rebound after getting supported at the 8,600 level, and it is expected that the industrial silicon futures price will continue to fluctuate upwards [2][9]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Market Data - From December 12th to December 19th, the industrial silicon main contract rose from 8,390 yuan/ton to 8,690 yuan/ton, an increase of 300 yuan/ton or 3.58%. The prices of various spot products remained unchanged, and the industrial silicon social inventory decreased from 561,000 tons to 553,000 tons, a decrease of 8,000 tons or 1.43% [3]. Market Analysis and Outlook - **Supply**: The operating rate in Xinjiang remains around 90%. The output in the southwest region is low in the off - season, and the overall increase in Inner Mongolia and Gansu is limited, resulting in a marginal contraction of the supply side [2][5][9]. - **Demand**: Polysilicon supply is in a convergent state, with significant production cuts in some southwestern regions, and the output is expected to drop to 110,000 tons in December. Silicon wafer enterprises' production cuts have effectively relieved inventory pressure, and the overall market shipment volume is limited. The capacity release of battery cell enterprises has not shown significant fluctuations. Second and third - tier enterprises control the shipment rhythm by locking in positions and raising prices. The rising silver price significantly pushes up production costs and is expected to drag down the production scheduling plan. At the component end, the demand for components is weak near the end of the year, and enterprises mostly produce according to sales to control inventory. The mainstream TOPCON182 transaction price is maintained at 0.66 - 0.72 yuan/watt [2][5][7]. - **Macro**: The central bank kept the one - year LPR rate at 3% and the five - year LPR rate at 3.5% in December. In 2026, the moderately loose monetary policy may have two main focuses: quantitative policies with possible policy - based interest rate cuts of 0.2 - 0.3 percentage points and reserve requirement ratio cuts of 1 percentage point; and structural policies with an overall increase in the quota of structural monetary policy tools and a moderate reduction in operating interest rates [6]. - **Inventory**: As of December 26th, the national social inventory of industrial silicon dropped to 553,000 tons, remaining flat month - on - month. The exchange registered warehouse receipt volume continued to increase, reaching 9,427 lots (equivalent to 47,000 tons) at the Guangzhou Futures Exchange. The 5 - series products meeting the new delivery standards have become the main delivery models [8]. Industry News - As of the end of November, the cumulative installed power generation capacity in China reached 3.79 billion kilowatts, a year - on - year increase of 17.1%. Among them, the installed capacity of solar power generation was 1.16 billion kilowatts, a year - on - year increase of 41.9%; the installed capacity of wind power was 600 million kilowatts, a year - on - year increase of 22.4%. From January to November, the average utilization hours of power generation equipment in China were 2,858 hours, 289 hours lower than the same period last year [10]. - On December 26th, the State Administration for Market Regulation conducted compliance guidance on price competition order in the photovoltaic industry in Hefei, Anhui. It pointed out the problems and risks of price violations in the photovoltaic industry and emphasized the importance of rectifying "involution - style" competition. It will take measures to maintain a fair market competition order [11]. - On December 14th, the "Second Phase of the Practical Training Course on Risk Management for Crystalline Silicon Photovoltaic Enterprises" jointly organized by the Guangzhou Futures Exchange and the Capital Market Academy successfully concluded. The exchange will continue to help enterprises improve their risk - resistance ability and promote the healthy development of the photovoltaic industry [12]. Relevant Charts - The report provides multiple charts showing data such as industrial silicon production, export volume, domestic social inventory, Guangzhou Futures Exchange warehouse receipt inventory, main producing area weekly output, organic silicon DMC production, polysilicon production, and various spot prices [14][15][18].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week, the coking coal and coke futures showed a volatile trend. With weak demand and supply contraction, the fundamental driving force was not strong. The terminal demand was at a low level. Steel mills maintained their coke production, with a slight increase in the daily average coke output and a month - on - month increase in inventory. Coking enterprises turned from profit to loss, with a significant contraction in profits mainly due to the strong coking coal prices. Coking coal inventory continued to increase due to poor demand and enhanced year - end safety repairs. Overall, with marginal contraction in supply and demand and weak fundamental drivers, it is expected that coking coal and coke will mainly fluctuate [1][5][6] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Transaction Data - SHFE rebar closed at 3118 yuan/ton, down 1 yuan or 0.03%, with a total trading volume of 4,998,891 lots and a total open interest of 2,309,982 lots - SHFE hot - rolled coil closed at 3283 yuan/ton, up 14 yuan or 0.43%, with a total trading volume of 1,750,294 lots and a total open interest of 1,238,912 lots - DCE iron ore closed at 783.0 yuan/ton, up 3.0 yuan or 0.38%, with a total trading volume of 1,134,250 lots and a total open interest of 567,104 lots - DCE coking coal closed at 1115.5 yuan/ton, up 7.5 yuan or 0.68%, with a total trading volume of 6,630,132 lots and a total open interest of 660,689 lots - DCE coke closed at 1720.0 yuan/ton, down 20.0 yuan or 1.15%, with a total trading volume of 107,944 lots and a total open interest of 34,179 lots [3] Market Review - **Downstream**: Terminal demand was at a low level. Steel mills maintained coke production. The daily average coke output increased slightly, and inventory increased month - on - month. The profitability rate of steel mills last week was 37.23%, a month - on - month increase of 1.30 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 12.55 percentage points. The daily average pig iron output was 226.58 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.03 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 1.29 tons. The daily average coke output was 46.8 (month - on - month + 0.31) tons, with a capacity utilization rate of 85.52% (- 0.21). Coke inventory was 642.2 (+ 847) tons, and the available days of coke were 12.01 (+ 0.29) days [5] - **Mid - stream**: Coking enterprises turned from profit to loss, with a significant contraction in profits mainly due to the strong coking coal prices, adjustment of coke output, and a significant increase in inventory. The national average profit per ton of coke was - 18 (month - on - month - 34) yuan/ton. Last week, the capacity utilization rate was 71.66% (- 0.39); the daily average coke output was 62.67 (- 0.31) tons, and the coke inventory was 92.4 (+ 1.14) tons [1][5] - **Upstream**: At the year - end, safety repairs were enhanced, and mine production declined. Due to poor demand, coking coal inventory continued to increase. The approved capacity utilization rate of 523 coking coal mine samples was 84.2%, a month - on - month decrease of 2.4%. The daily average raw coal output was 187.4 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 5.4 tons, and the raw coal inventory was 483.1 tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.2 tons. The daily average clean coal output was 74 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.8 tons, and the clean coal inventory was 282.9 tons, a month - on - month increase of 10.1 tons [1][6] Industry News - Premier Li Qiang chaired a meeting of the leading group for the preparation of the "15th Five - Year Plan" Outline Draft, emphasizing the need to plan major projects, carriers, etc., to accumulate new momentum for future development and support current economic operations - Beijing further optimized and adjusted the housing purchase restriction policy, including relaxing the conditions for non - local households, reducing the social security or individual income tax payment years, allowing multi - child families to buy an additional house, and adjusting mortgage interest rates and down - payment ratios - Some cities such as Handan, Baoding, Xingtai, and Xi'an launched heavy - pollution weather emergency responses, and Anhui issued a provincial orange warning for heavy - pollution weather - The National Fiscal Work Conference was held, stating that a more proactive fiscal policy would be continued in 2026, with an expansion of fiscal expenditure and optimization of government bond tools. Six key tasks were required for fiscal work in 2026, including boosting consumption and increasing investment in key areas [7][11] Relevant Charts - The report includes multiple charts such as the basis trend of coke and coking coal, the futures and monthly spread trends of steel products, and the trends of production, capacity utilization, inventory, and profit - related indicators of coking coal and coke [10][13][17]

豆粕周报 2025 年 12 月 29 日 拍卖暂停&通关消息 连粕止跌收涨 核心观点及策略 投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可【2015】84 号 李婷 从业资格号：F0297587 投资咨询号：Z0011509 黄蕾 从业资格号：F0307990 投资咨询号：Z0011692 高慧 从业资格号：F03099478 投资咨询号：Z0017785 王工建 从业资格号：F3084165 投资咨询号：Z0016301 赵凯熙 从业资格号：F03112296 投资咨询号：Z0021040 何天 ⚫ 风险因素：南美天气，进口大豆通关，大豆拍卖 敬请参阅最后一页免责声明 1 / 11 ⚫ 上周，CBOT美豆3月合约涨12.25收于1071.75美分/蒲式 耳，涨幅1.16%；豆粕05合约涨55收于2790元/吨，涨幅 2.01%；华南豆粕现货涨20收于3080元/吨，涨幅0.65%； 菜粕05合约涨68收于2391元/吨，涨幅2.93%；广西菜粕 现货涨90收于2560元/吨，涨幅3.64%。 ⚫ 美豆止跌反弹，南美作物暂无风险点，阿根廷产区降水 减少，土壤墒情尚可，关注天气变化带来的影响；美豆 出口销售进度有所加快，但整体 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The market trading theme revolves around the overseas interest - rate cut cycle and the expectation of manufacturing recovery, with a warm risk preference. The fundamental situation is a mix of long and short factors. In the short term, zinc prices are expected to fluctuate strongly supported by macro - bullish sentiment and inventory reduction, but LME inventory accumulation and domestic supply recovery will limit the upside space [3][8][9] Summary by Sections Transaction Data - From December 19th to 26th, the SHFE zinc price rose from 23,065 yuan/ton to 23,170 yuan/ton, an increase of 105 yuan/ton; the LME zinc price rose from 3078 dollars/ton to 3086.5 dollars/ton, an increase of 8.5 dollars/ton. The SHFE - LME ratio rose from 7.49 to 7.51. The SHFE inventory decreased by 3054 tons to 72963 tons, while the LME inventory increased by 6975 tons to 106,875 tons. The social inventory decreased by 0.75 million tons to 11.47 million tons, and the spot premium decreased by 10 yuan/ton to 80 yuan/ton [4] Market Review - Last week, the main contract of SHFE zinc fluctuated narrowly, closing at 23170 yuan/ton with a weekly increase of 0.41%. LME zinc also had a narrow - range fluctuation, closing at 3086.5 dollars/ton with a weekly increase of 0.28%. In the spot market, as the year - end approached, traders sold more goods, and the spot premium decreased. The downstream's purchasing weakened in the second half of the week [5] Macroeconomic Situation - The US GDP in Q3 was stronger than expected, and the initial jobless claims data last week was better than expected, leading the market to slightly increase the expectation of a Fed rate cut in January next year. The domestic central bank's Q4 meeting pointed out to continue implementing a moderately loose monetary policy and strengthen counter - cyclical and cross - cyclical adjustments [3][6][8] Fundamental Analysis - **Supply**: In January 2026, the domestic and foreign zinc concentrate processing fees continued to decline month - on - month, but the SHFE - LME ratio has recovered to open the zinc concentrate import window, and the weekly processing fees have stopped falling. The supply of refined zinc in January 2026 is expected to increase by about 15,000 tons month - on - month, and the supply pressure has a marginal increase [3][8] - **Demand**: The lifting of environmental protection restrictions in the north and project rush in the south supported the increase in the operating rate of galvanizing enterprises. The operating rates of die - casting zinc alloy and zinc oxide enterprises also increased. However, the new round of environmental protection control in the north is approaching, and the enterprises' operations are still under pressure [3][8] Industry News - In January 2026, the average domestic and foreign zinc concentrate processing fees were 1400 yuan/metal ton and 79.04 dollars/dry ton respectively, showing a month - on - month decrease. In November, the zinc concentrate import volume increased year - on - year and month - on - month, the refined zinc import volume decreased year - on - year and month - on - month, and the refined zinc export volume led to a net export of 24,600 tons. GMI will continue to provide loans to Shuka to acquire LEM Mining and Kabwe Zinc Mine [10]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The report does not mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core Views - Last week, the BMD Malaysian palm oil main contract rose 181 to close at 4,087 ringgit/ton, a 4.63% increase; the palm oil 05 contract rose 276 to close at 8,568 yuan/ton, a 3.33% increase; the soybean oil 05 contract rose 124 to close at 7,836 yuan/ton, a 1.61% increase; the rapeseed oil 05 contract rose 302 to close at 9,046 yuan/ton, a 3.45% increase; the CBOT soybean oil main contract rose 0.84 to close at 49.2 cents/pound, a 1.74% increase; and the ICE canola active contract rose 17.9 to close at 612.4 Canadian dollars/ton, a 3.01% increase [4][7]. - As the supply - demand of Malaysian palm oil improves marginally, the palm oil futures price continues to rebound. High - frequency data shows that the production of Malaysian palm oil has changed from increasing to decreasing, and the export demand has improved significantly. With the expected support of stocking demand before holidays, the pessimistic sentiment of a large - scale inventory build - up at the end of December has eased, and the sentiment in the commodity market has warmed up. The news about Indonesian biodiesel is within expectations, with limited short - term actual impact. Attention should be paid to the implementation rhythm next year. Rapeseed oil has rebounded from an oversold level, approaching the upper pressure range. The domestic rapeseed oil inventory continues to decline. After the arrival of Australian canola, the pressing process is expected to start. In addition, the global supply is in a loose pattern, which suppresses the upside space [4][8]. - Macroscopically, attention should be paid to the announcement of the Fed Chairman candidate. Last week, the US dollar index fluctuated and closed down, and the oil price continued to fluctuate at a low level. Fundamentally, the supply - demand of Malaysian palm oil has improved marginally, with production decreasing and export demand improving significantly, leading to the continuous rebound of palm oil last week. In addition, there is expected support for stocking demand during holidays such as the Spring Festival, which may relieve the inventory pressure at the origin. The Indonesian government has reiterated the biodiesel policy, which is expected to be implemented in the second half of next year. Attention should be paid to the progress of the policy. It is expected that palm oil will fluctuate in the short term [4][10]. 3. Summary by Directory Market Data - The report provides the closing prices, price changes, and percentage changes of various contracts on December 26 and December 19, including CBOT soybean oil main contract, BMD Malaysian palm oil main contract, DCE palm oil, DCE soybean oil, CZCE rapeseed oil, as well as the spot prices of palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil in different regions [5]. Market Analysis and Outlook - The production of Malaysian palm oil has decreased. From December 1 - 25, 2025, according to SPPOMA data, the yield per unit area decreased by 8.49% month - on - month, the oil extraction rate decreased by 0.12% month - on - month, and the production decreased by 9.12% month - on - month. MPOA data shows that the palm oil production from December 1 - 20 decreased by 7.44% [8]. - The export of Malaysian palm oil has increased. According to different shipping survey agencies, the export volume from December 1 - 25 increased by 1.6% - 41.25% compared with the same period last month [8][9]. - Indonesia plans to increase the biodiesel blending ratio to 50% (B50) next year. The 2026 biodiesel quota is 15.646 million kiloliters, basically the same as in 2025. The government is currently testing the B50 standard, and the test cycle may last up to eight months [9]. - As of December 19, 2025, the total inventory of the three major oils in key regions across the country was 2.1265 million tons, an increase of 0.0079 million tons from the previous week and 0.2164 million tons from the same period last year. Among them, the soybean oil inventory was 1.1235 million tons, a decrease of 0.0139 million tons from the previous week; the palm oil inventory was 0.7 million tons, an increase of 0.0473 million tons from the previous week; the rapeseed oil inventory was 0.303 million tons, a decrease of 0.0255 million tons from the previous week [10]. Industry News - The Malaysian Palm Oil Association (MPOC) expects that in 2026, the country's palm oil export volume will increase to 16.2 million tons, and the production will moderately increase to 19.7 million tons. The supply - demand pattern is expected to improve, and the inventory will gradually return to normal. In November, due to weak demand in sub - Saharan Africa and the EU, the production and export volume decreased, and the inventory reached a high level since March 2019 [11]. - The Indonesian Meteorological Agency predicts that the rainy season will return to normal in 2026, and the La Nina weather pattern is expected to weaken and end by the end of the first quarter, which can optimize the harvest efficiency and logistics of palm plantations [12][13]. - The Indonesian government may fine palm oil enterprises and miners operating illegally in forest areas 8.5 billion US dollars in 2026, which may disrupt production and bring upward pressure on global prices [13]. Relevant Charts - The report provides various charts, including the price trends of Malaysian palm oil, US soybean oil, and the three major oils' futures and spot prices, as well as the production, export, and inventory data of Malaysian and Indonesian palm oil, and the commercial inventory data of domestic three major oils [15][28][40].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Overseas, European and American financial markets were closed for holidays, while in the early morning of Thursday, the accelerating upward trend of metals continued. Japan plans to launch a record - high budget of 122 trillion yen in the new fiscal year, a 6.3% year - on - year increase. The Bank of Japan may continue to raise interest rates if the economy meets expectations. Domestically, the Ministry of Commerce will promote year - end consumption and supply guarantee, and the RMB has accelerated its appreciation at the end of the year. The A - share market has further risen [2][3]. - The performance of precious metals has diverged. Gold prices are oscillating at a high level, silver is rising, platinum prices have fluctuated sharply and then risen, and palladium prices have dropped significantly. It is expected that the precious metal market will experience increased volatility in the short term [4]. - The price of copper continues to rise due to the resonance of macro and fundamental factors. The price of aluminum is oscillating at a high level driven by the long - position atmosphere. The price of zinc is oscillating with inventory reduction providing support. The upward trend of lead prices has slowed down. The price of tin is oscillating at a high level. The price of industrial silicon is oscillating strongly. The prices of steel products are oscillating and adjusting in a situation of weak supply and demand. The price of iron ore is oscillating downward. The prices of coking coal and coke are oscillating and adjusting. The prices of soybean meal and rapeseed meal are oscillating. The price of palm oil is oscillating with a weakening rebound [4][6][8][9][11][12][13][15][16][17][18][20]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Main Variety Views 3.1.1 Macro - Overseas: European and American financial markets were closed for holidays on Christmas. The Japanese government continues to expand its budget, with a planned 122 trillion yen budget in the new fiscal year, a 6.3% year - on - year increase, mainly driven by social security and defense expenditures. The Bank of Japan Governor Ueda Kazuo said that wage growth is pushing inflation steadily towards 2%, and if the economy meets expectations, the interest - rate hike path will continue [2]. - Domestic: The Ministry of Commerce will promote year - end consumption and supply guarantee. The RMB has accelerated its appreciation at the end of the year, with the offshore and onshore exchange rates breaking through 7.0 and 7.01 respectively, reaching the highest level since the end of September last year. The A - share market has further risen, with the Shanghai Composite Index reaching nearly 3960 points, and growth stocks such as the STAR Market and CSI 2000 performing better. Sectors such as commercial aerospace, large aircraft, and satellites led the gains [3]. 3.1.2 Precious Metals - The prices of precious metals have diverged. Gold prices are oscillating at a high level, silver has continued to rise, with Shanghai silver rising more than 5% at night and breaking through 18,000 yuan to a record high. Platinum prices have fluctuated sharply and then risen, while palladium prices have dropped significantly. The Guangzhou Futures Exchange has adjusted the minimum opening order quantity and trading limits for platinum and palladium futures contracts. The Sino - US rare - earth magnet export issue has received a positive response. It is expected that the precious - metal market will experience increased volatility in the short term [4]. 3.1.3 Copper - The main contract of Shanghai copper accelerated its upward movement on Thursday, while London copper was closed due to the holiday. The domestic spot market for electrolytic copper had light trading, with domestic trade copper at a discount of 330 yuan/ton. The LME inventory remained at 157,000 tons, and the COMEX inventory remained at 479,000 tons. Macroscopically, the stability of the FOMC voting committee may lead to Powell's early resignation, and Trump may advocate for a dovish Fed chair. The Bank of Japan may further raise interest rates in 2026. Industrially, the union of a copper mine in Chile may go on strike. It is expected that copper prices will remain strong at a high level in the short term [6][7]. 3.1.4 Aluminum - The main contract of Shanghai aluminum closed at 22,305 yuan/ton on Thursday, up 0.67%. The LME was closed, and the spot price decreased. The inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots increased by 217,000 tons, and the inventory of aluminum rods increased by 15,000 tons. The continuous new high of copper prices provides impetus for aluminum prices, but the fundamental driving force is weak, and aluminum prices are oscillating at a high level [8]. 3.1.5 Zinc - The main contract of Shanghai zinc oscillated narrowly on Thursday. The spot market had light trading, and the inventory decreased to 114,700 tons, providing support for zinc prices. However, with the opening of the zinc - ore import window and the approaching of the downstream consumption off - season, it is difficult to provide upward driving force. It is expected that Shanghai zinc will oscillate mainly [9][10]. 3.1.6 Lead - The main contract of Shanghai lead oscillated strongly on Thursday. The spot market had light trading, and the inventory decreased to 17,900 tons, remaining at a low level within the year. The supply of primary and secondary lead refineries has increased, but it has not been reflected in the inventory. The lead price's upward trend has slowed down, and attention should be paid to the pressure near the previous high [11]. 3.1.7 Tin - The main contract of Shanghai tin oscillated strongly during the day and declined slightly at night on Thursday. The US has ended the chip trade investigation against China, and no additional tariffs will be imposed on Chinese chips in the next 18 months. The market lacks external - market guidance, and the downstream consumption has a negative feedback. It is expected that the inventory will continue to accumulate this week, and the tin price has a large risk of high - level adjustment [12]. 3.1.8 Industrial Silicon - Industrial silicon oscillated narrowly on Thursday. The spot price in the East China region was basically stable, and the social inventory decreased to 553,000 tons last week. The supply side is converging, and the demand side has different situations in each link. The industrial - silicon spot market has stabilized due to the rebound of futures prices. It is expected that the futures price will continue to oscillate strongly in the short term [13][14]. 3.1.9 Steel Products (Screw and Coil) - Steel futures oscillated on Thursday. The spot trading volume was 82,500 tons. The supply of five major steel products decreased by 0.1% week - on - week, the total inventory decreased by 2.8% week - on - week, and the consumption of building materials decreased by 3.2% week - on - week, while that of plates increased by 1.4% week - on - week. The overall supply and demand are weak, and it is expected that steel prices will oscillate weakly [15]. 3.1.10 Iron Ore - Iron - ore futures oscillated and adjusted on Thursday. The port - spot trading volume was 1.34 million tons. The supply is still at a high level, and the port inventory is accumulating. The demand of steel mills is weakening, and the terminal demand is in the off - season. It is expected that the futures price will be under pressure and oscillate [16]. 3.1.11 Coking Coal and Coke (Double - Coking) - Coking - coal and coke futures oscillated and adjusted on Thursday. The production of coking coal has decreased due to annual maintenance, and the downstream acceptance is not strong. The profit of coke enterprises has shrunk, and the procurement of raw coal is cautious. It is expected that the double - coking market will oscillate weakly in the short term [17]. 3.1.12 Soybean Meal and Rapeseed Meal (Bean and Rapeseed Meal) - On Thursday, the 05 - contract of soybean meal closed up 0.77% at 2,760 yuan/ton, and the 05 - contract of rapeseed meal closed up 0.04% at 2,352 yuan/ton. CBOT soybeans were closed for the holiday. Argentine farmers' soybean sales are accelerating. The weather in the Brazilian soybean - producing area is good, while the weather in the Argentine soybean - producing area may turn dry. It is expected that the domestic soybean - meal futures will oscillate in the short term [18][19]. 3.1.13 Palm Oil - On Thursday, the 05 - contract of palm oil closed up 0.31% at 8,542 yuan/ton. According to the ITS data, Malaysia's palm - oil exports from December 1 - 25 increased by 1.6% compared with the same period last month. The RMB exchange rate is strengthening. The export demand for palm oil is slightly increasing, and the short - position reduction of palm oil has a weakening rebound. It is expected that palm oil will oscillate in the short term [20]. 3.2 Metal Main Variety Trading Data - The report provides the closing data of major futures markets on December 25, including the closing price, change, change percentage, total trading volume, total open interest, and price unit of contracts such as SHFE copper, LME copper, SHFE aluminum, etc. [21] 3.3 Industrial Data Perspective - The report presents the industrial data of various metals on December 25 and 24, including the price, inventory, and other data of copper, nickel, zinc, lead, aluminum, alumina, tin, precious metals, steel products, iron ore, coking coal, coke, lithium carbonate, industrial silicon, soybean meal, etc. [22][25][27]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The US job market shows resilience with initial jobless claims falling to 214,000 and continued claims rising to 1923,000 but well below the annual high. Policy discussions are advancing, and the stock market is generally rising. In China, the Beijing property market policy has been marginally relaxed, and the central bank will continue a moderately loose monetary policy. The A-share market has seen a general rise [2][3]. - The prices of platinum and palladium futures in the domestic market have reached the daily limit for three consecutive days, and the prices of gold and silver futures have hit new highs. However, the market is expected to experience increased volatility in the short term, and there is a risk of a callback due to regulatory policy changes [4][5]. - The price of copper is expected to remain strong in the short term due to a weak US dollar, strong demand expectations, and a tight supply situation in the global mining sector [6][7]. - The aluminum price is expected to fluctuate as the end - of - year consumption weakens and there is pressure on inventory accumulation [8]. - The zinc price is expected to continue to fluctuate due to limited short - term supply - demand contradictions and a lack of overseas guidance during the Christmas holiday [9][10]. - The lead price is expected to be slightly stronger in the short term, but the upside is limited by weak spot trading at the end of the year [11]. - The tin price faces increased pressure for a high - level adjustment due to a weakening supply - side support and weak consumption [12]. - The price of industrial silicon is expected to rebound slightly as supply contracts and demand shows marginal improvement [13][14]. - The steel price is expected to fluctuate as the steel market faces a situation of weak supply and demand, with a game between macro - policy expectations and weak terminal reality [15]. - The iron ore price is expected to be under pressure and fluctuate due to a supply - strong and demand - weak market situation [16]. - The prices of coking coal and coke are expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term as the market is affected by multiple factors such as production cuts and cautious procurement [17]. - The price of soybean and rapeseed meal is expected to oscillate weakly as the appreciation of the RMB reduces import costs and weather conditions affect crop growth [18]. - The price of palm oil is expected to fluctuate as the production contraction supports the price, but there are uncertainties in the market due to various factors [19][20]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Macro - Overseas: The US job market is resilient, with initial jobless claims at 214,000 and continued claims at 1923,000. Policy discussions are advancing, and the stock market is generally rising. The dollar index rose to 97.9, the 10Y US Treasury yield fell to 4.13%, the gold price adjusted to 4480 after breaking through 4500, the copper price reached a new high, and the oil price slightly declined [2]. - Domestic: The Beijing property market policy has been marginally relaxed to support housing demand. The central bank will continue a moderately loose monetary policy. The A - share market had a general rise, with the Shanghai Composite Index reaching 3940 points, and the trading volume slightly decreased to 1.9 trillion [3]. 3.2 Precious Metals - Wednesday saw platinum and palladium futures in the domestic market hitting the daily limit for three consecutive days, and gold and silver futures reaching new highs. The silver futures contract had a net inflow of nearly 6.5 billion yuan, while the gold futures had an outflow of 3.5 billion yuan. The night - session prices of platinum and palladium in the NYMEX market fluctuated, and the prices of gold and silver in the overseas market showed different trends. The market is expected to be more volatile in the short term, and there is a risk of a regulatory - induced callback [4][5]. 3.3 Copper - The Shanghai copper and London copper prices continued to rise. The spot market trading was weak, and the inventory situation in different markets varied. The Fed's potential interest - rate cut expectations and China's central bank's MLF operations affected the market. The import of scrap copper in China increased in November. The copper price is expected to remain strong in the short term [6][7]. 3.4 Aluminum - The Shanghai aluminum price fell slightly, while the LME price rose. The spot price increased, and the inventory increased. The end - of - year consumption is weakening, and the aluminum price is expected to fluctuate [8]. 3.5 Zinc - The Shanghai zinc price fluctuated, and the LME price was weak. The spot market trading was mainly among traders, and the LME inventory increased. The short - term supply - demand contradiction is limited, and the zinc price is expected to continue to fluctuate [9][10]. 3.6 Lead - The Shanghai lead price rose, and the LME price was stable. The spot market inventory was low, and the trading was weak. The LME inventory decreased, and the domestic refinery's resumption of production was slow. The lead price is expected to be slightly stronger in the short term, but the upside is limited [11]. 3.7 Tin - The Shanghai tin price adjusted downward, and the LME price was weak. The US job market recovery reduced the expectation of an interest - rate cut in January. The supply - side support is weakening, and the consumption is weak. The tin price faces increased pressure for a high - level adjustment [12]. 3.8 Industrial Silicon - The price of industrial silicon rebounded slightly. The supply is contracting, and the demand shows marginal improvement. The inventory decreased last week, and the price is expected to rebound slightly in the short term [13][14]. 3.9 Steel (Spiral and Coil) - The steel futures prices fluctuated. The spot market trading volume was 96,000 tons. The Beijing property market policy adjustment had limited impact. The supply has shrunk, and the demand is seasonally weak. The steel price is expected to fluctuate [15]. 3.10 Iron Ore - The iron ore futures prices fluctuated and adjusted. The port spot trading volume was 1.28 million tons. The steel mills' profits have shrunk, and the demand is in the off - season. The supply is at a high level, and the price is expected to be under pressure and fluctuate [16]. 3.11 Coking Coal and Coke (Double - Coking) - The double - coking futures prices fluctuated and adjusted. The spot prices of coking coal and coke decreased. The production of coking coal is affected by maintenance, and the coke enterprises' profits have shrunk. The market is affected by multiple factors, and the prices are expected to fluctuate weakly [17]. 3.12 Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - The soybean meal futures price fell, and the rapeseed meal futures price rose slightly. The Argentine soybean sales data and the weather conditions in Brazil and Argentina are factors to watch. The appreciation of the RMB has put pressure on the price, and it is expected to oscillate weakly [18]. 3.13 Palm Oil - The palm oil futures price rose, while the soybean oil futures price fell slightly and the rapeseed oil futures price rose. The production of Malaysian palm oil decreased in the first 20 days of December. The Indonesian government's actions may affect production and prices. The price is expected to fluctuate [19][20]. 3.14 Metal Main Variety Trading Data - The report provides detailed trading data for various metals, including copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, tin, gold, and silver, such as closing prices, price changes, trading volumes, and inventories in different markets on December 24 [21][23][26]. 3.15 Industry Data Perspective - The report presents a comprehensive set of industry data for different commodities, including price changes, inventory levels, and spreads between different varieties and markets, covering metals, energy, and agricultural products [23][26][28].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Metal prices continue to be strong, while the profit - making effect of A - shares weakens. The strong US economic data boosts risk appetite, and the US dollar index weakens, supporting the rise of metal prices. The A - share market may maintain a wide - range weak shock in the short term [2][3]. - Precious metals, including gold, silver, and platinum, hit new highs. The upward trend in the short term is further strengthened, but risks need to be vigilant [4][5]. - Copper prices are expected to remain strong in the short term, driven by factors such as Trump's call for interest rate cuts, strong economic data, and the imbalance of global mining and metallurgy production capacity [6][7]. - Aluminum prices are expected to continue to fluctuate in the short term due to factors such as the strengthening of US economic resilience, slightly lower end - of - year consumption, and expected inventory accumulation [8][9]. - Alumina maintains a low level due to potential cost reduction and sufficient supply [10]. - Cast aluminum maintains a high - level shock in the short term under the game of cost and supply - demand factors [11]. - Zinc prices are expected to continue to fluctuate, with the current domestic downstream consumption being divided and the short - term supply - demand contradiction being limited [12]. - Lead prices are expected to consolidate with limited upward and downward drivers due to the weak supply - demand situation at the end of the year [13]. - Tin prices face increased adjustment pressure due to the expected increase in supply and the call from the tin association for market rationality [14]. - Industrial silicon prices are expected to maintain a shock in the short term, with supply contraction and relatively stable demand [15][16]. - Steel prices are expected to fluctuate mainly due to the game between macro - policy expectations and weak terminal reality, with a pattern of weak supply and demand [17]. - Iron ore prices are expected to be under shock pressure due to the pattern of strong supply and weak demand [18]. - Coking coal and coke prices are expected to maintain a shock in the short term due to the mixed long - and short - term factors in the market [19]. - Soybean and rapeseed meal prices are expected to fluctuate, and attention should be paid to the impact of South American weather changes on crops [20][21]. - Palm oil prices are expected to fluctuate in the short term, affected by factors such as US economic data, Indonesian biofuel policies, and palm oil production and inventory changes [22][23]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Main Variety Views 3.1.1 Macro - Overseas: The initial value of the annualized quarterly GDP growth rate in the US in the third quarter was 4.3%, significantly exceeding expectations. The PCE price index rose to 2.8%. After the data release, the market's expectation of the first interest rate cut next year was postponed to June. The US stock market rose, the US dollar index weakened, and metal prices were strong. Gold exceeded $4,500 per ounce, silver exceeded $70 per ounce, and copper exceeded $12,000 per ton [2]. - Domestic: The central government emphasized the work of central state - owned enterprises, and the National Housing and Urban - Rural Development Work Conference set goals for the real estate market in 2026. The A - share market rose slightly with heavy volume, but the profit - making effect was weak. The market may maintain a wide - range weak shock in the short term [3]. 3.1.2 Precious Metals - International precious metal futures continued to rise strongly. COMEX gold futures exceeded $4,510 per ounce, and COMEX silver futures rose more than 4% to a record high. Domestic platinum and palladium prices soared, and platinum futures hit the daily limit for two consecutive days. The price increase was driven by domestic funds, and the market sentiment was high, but risks need to be vigilant [4][5]. 3.1.3 Copper - Shanghai copper and LME copper continued to rise, with LME copper exceeding $12,000 per ton. Trump called for interest rate cuts, and the adjusted GDP growth rate in the US in the third quarter was 4.3%. The supply - demand imbalance in the global mining and metallurgy industry and the rise of precious metals drove copper prices. It is expected that copper prices will remain strong in the short term [6][7]. 3.1.4 Aluminum - Shanghai aluminum and LME aluminum showed different trends. The US economic data strengthened the market's confidence in the economic resilience, and the expectation of an interest rate cut in January next year decreased. At the end of the year, consumption was slightly lower, and inventory was expected to accumulate. Aluminum prices are expected to fluctuate in the short term [8][9]. 3.1.5 Alumina - The alumina futures price rose slightly, and the spot price fell. There were rumors that the bauxite price in Guinea would fall in the first quarter, and the supply of alumina remained abundant. The fundamentals were bearish, and the price maintained a low level [10]. 3.1.6 Cast Aluminum - The cast aluminum alloy futures price fell slightly, and the spot price was flat. The supply - demand situation was weak, and the cost support was strengthened. It is expected to maintain a high - level shock in the short term [11]. 3.1.7 Zinc - Shanghai zinc and LME zinc fluctuated. The US economic growth in the third quarter was 4.3%, which hit the interest rate cut expectation. The domestic downstream consumption was divided, and the spot premium was slightly reduced. Zinc prices are expected to continue to fluctuate [12]. 3.1.8 Lead - Shanghai lead and LME lead fluctuated. At the end of the year, the number of market quotes decreased, and the downstream procurement was weak. The supply - demand situation was weak, and lead prices are expected to consolidate [13]. 3.1.9 Tin - Shanghai tin and LME tin fluctuated. The supply - side risks decreased, and the tin association called for market rationality. Tin prices face increased adjustment pressure [14]. 3.1.10 Industrial Silicon - Industrial silicon prices rebounded slightly. The supply in Xinjiang was at a relatively high level, while that in the southwest was weak. The demand was relatively stable, and the inventory decreased slightly. It is expected to maintain a shock in the short term [15][16]. 3.1.11 Steel (Screw and Coil) - Steel futures fluctuated and adjusted. The National Housing and Urban - Rural Development Work Conference set goals for the real estate market in 2026. The steel market maintained a pattern of weak supply and demand, and steel prices are expected to fluctuate mainly [17]. 3.1.12 Iron Ore - Iron ore futures fluctuated and adjusted. The overseas supply was at a high level, and the port inventory continued to accumulate. The steel mill's profit shrank, and the demand was weak. Iron ore prices are expected to be under shock pressure [18]. 3.1.13 Coking Coal and Coke (Double - Coking) - Coking coal and coke futures fluctuated. The supply of coking coal was generally stable, and the profit of coke enterprises shrank after the third round of price cuts. The market was mixed with long - and short - term factors, and prices are expected to maintain a shock in the short term [19]. 3.1.14 Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - Soybean and rapeseed meal futures showed different trends. The US soybean export sales increased, and the expected output of Brazilian soybeans remained unchanged. Attention should be paid to the impact of South American weather changes on crops. The domestic supply was sufficient, and prices are expected to fluctuate [20][21]. 3.1.15 Palm Oil - Palm oil futures rose. Indonesia's biofuel quota in 2026 was basically the same as that in 2025. If the B50 plan is implemented, the demand for palm oil will increase significantly. The production of Malaysian palm oil decreased, and the export demand improved. Palm oil prices are expected to fluctuate in the short term [22][23]. 3.2 Metal Main Variety Trading Data - The report provides the closing prices, price changes, price change percentages, trading volumes, and open interests of various metal futures contracts on December 23, including copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, tin, etc., in both domestic (SHFE) and international (LME) markets [24]. 3.3 Industry Data Perspective - The report presents detailed industry data for various metals, such as copper, nickel, zinc, lead, aluminum, alumina, tin, precious metals, steel, iron ore, coking coal, coke, etc., including prices, inventory changes, basis, and other indicators on December 23 and December 22 [25][28][30].

Group 1: Overall Market Conditions - Overseas, Fed official Milan said there's no short - term recession, but rising unemployment may prompt the Fed to turn dovish and cut rates. The market risk appetite is good, with tech stocks driving the US stocks up, the US Treasury yield rising to 4.16%, and the US dollar index dropping to 98.2. Japanese officials signaled possible foreign exchange intervention, strengthening the yen. Geopolitical issues pushed up oil prices. Risk assets are supported by sentiment and liquidity in the short - term, but caution is needed due to approaching holidays [2] - In China, the LPR has remained unchanged for seven consecutive months. The 5 - year LPR in December is 3.5%, and the 1 - year is 3%. The probability of a rate cut or reserve requirement ratio cut this year is low, with the next possible rate cut expected early next year. A - shares rose on Monday, with the ChiNext and STAR Market rebounding over 2%. Over 2900 stocks closed up, and the trading volume expanded to 1.88 trillion. The market may maintain a wide - range weak - oscillating pattern in the short - term. The bond market readjusted, lacking a clear direction [3] Group 2: Precious Metals - International precious metal futures continued to rise strongly on Monday. COMEX gold futures rose 2.13% to $4480.60 per ounce, and COMEX silver futures rose 2.37% to $69.09 per ounce. Domestic platinum and palladium futures hit the daily limit, and the overseas platinum price reached a new high. The rise is due to the resonance of macro, fundamental, and capital factors. The weakening of the US dollar credit supports gold in the long - term. Silver's strategic position in green energy and high - end manufacturing attracts funds, and platinum and palladium face supply shortages and strong industrial demand [4][5] Group 3: Copper - The Shanghai copper main contract continued to rise on Monday, and LME copper approached $12000. The spot market trading was poor, with domestic trade copper at a discount of 195 yuan/ton. The LME inventory decreased to 15.7 million tons, and the COMEX inventory increased to 46.7 million tons. Fed official Milan maintained a dovish stance, and Trump will announce a new Fed chair in early January, likely to be more dovish. The global mine supply is tight, and the long - term TC benchmark price is 0 dollars/ton. The copper price is expected to remain strong in the short - term [6][7] Group 4: Aluminum - The Shanghai aluminum main contract closed at 2220 yuan/ton on Monday, up 0.82%. The LME closed at $2941 per ton, down 0.49%. The electrolytic aluminum ingot inventory increased by 2.2 million tons to 60 million tons on December 22. The Fed's expected rate cut next year is fermenting, and the LME aluminum reached a new high this year. The domestic aluminum price is expected to oscillate at a high level in the short - term due to the fluctuating inventory [8] Group 5: Alumina - The alumina futures main contract closed at 2508 yuan/ton on Monday, down 1.18%. The spot alumina national average price was 2751 yuan/ton, down 7 yuan/ton. The supply is expected to remain sufficient in the short - term, and the alumina price will continue to be under pressure [9] Group 6: Cast Aluminum - The cast aluminum alloy futures main contract closed at 21290 yuan/ton on Monday, up 0.66%. The raw material scrap aluminum supply is tight, and the cost support is strong. The supply decreased slightly due to environmental protection and cost - profit factors. The consumption is stable, and the cast aluminum price is expected to oscillate at a high level [10] Group 7: Zinc - The Shanghai zinc main contract oscillated narrowly on Monday. The social inventory increased to 12.45 million tons. The 11 - month zinc concentrate imports increased by 13.84% year - on - year and 52.27% month - on - month. The overall zinc price is expected to oscillate due to mixed Fed officials' views, changes in imports and exports, and consumption and supply factors [11][12] Group 8: Lead - The Shanghai lead main contract oscillated weakly on Monday. The social inventory decreased to 2.02 million tons. Near the end of the year, the supply and demand of the lead industry are both weak. The lead price is expected to maintain a weak and stable oscillation [13][14] Group 9: Tin - The Shanghai tin main contract oscillated narrowly on Monday. The 11 - month tin concentrate imports increased significantly, especially from Myanmar. The supply is expected to improve, and the tin price has a high - level adjustment risk [15][16] Group 10: Industrial Silicon - The industrial silicon oscillated on Monday. The supply in Xinjiang is at a relatively high level, while that in the southwest is weak. The demand is mainly for historical orders. The industrial silicon price is expected to oscillate narrowly [17][18] Group 11: Steel Products - Steel futures oscillated and rebounded on Monday. The five major steel products' production and apparent demand adjusted slightly, and the inventory continued to decline. The steel price is expected to oscillate mainly, and attention should be paid to the acceptance of the price rebound [19] Group 12: Iron Ore - Iron ore futures oscillated and adjusted on Monday. The overseas shipment and arrival volume decreased this week, and the port inventory continued to accumulate. The demand is weak due to steel mills' production cuts and the off - season. The iron ore price is expected to oscillate under pressure [20] Group 13: Coking Coal and Coke - Coking coal and coke futures oscillated on Monday. The third round of coke price cuts was implemented, reducing coking profits and weakening the procurement of raw coal. The coking coal supply is generally stable. The prices are expected to oscillate in the short - term [21] Group 14: Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - On Monday, the soybean meal 05 contract rose 0.18%, and the rapeseed meal 05 contract rose 0.56%. The US soybean export sales are still slow, and the domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories are high. The domestic rapeseed meal is expected to oscillate weakly in the short - term [22][23] Group 15: Palm Oil - The palm oil 05 contract rose 0.94% on Monday. The Malaysian palm oil production decreased, and the export demand improved. The domestic palm oil inventory increased slightly. The palm oil price is expected to stop falling and enter an oscillating state in the short - term [24][25]

黄蕾 焦煤焦炭周报 2025 年 12 月 22 日 政策利好刺激 双焦大幅反弹 核心观点及策略 投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可【2015】84 号 李婷 从业资格号：F0297587 投资咨询号：Z0011509 从业资格号：F0307990 投资咨询号：Z0011692 高慧 从业资格号：F03099478 投资咨询号：Z0017785 王工建 从业资格号：F3084165 投资咨询号：Z0016301 赵凯熙 从业资格号：F03112296 投资咨询号：Z0021040 何天 从业资格号：F03120615 投资咨询号：Z0022965 敬请参阅最后一页免责声明 一、交易数据 | 合约 | 收盘价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅% | 总成交量/手 | 总持仓量/手 | 价格单位 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | SHFE 螺纹钢 | 3125 | 41 | 1.33 | 838111 | 2374085 | 元/吨 | | SHFE 热卷 | 3277 | 32 | 0.99 | 279994 | 1191178 | 元/吨 | | DCE 铁矿石 | ...