Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View - Market expectations for the Fed's interest rate cuts are inconsistent, and market risk appetite lacks sustainability. The fundamentals continue to show a pattern of a slight increase in supply but lower-than-expected demand. High inventory levels put pressure on lead prices, while the relatively stable supply-demand gap at the cost end provides support. There are few new contradictions in the short term, and lead prices are expected to fluctuate within a narrow range, with the integer resistance level above remaining effective [4][9]. 3. Summary by Section Transaction Data | Contract | 8/8 | 8/15 | Change | Unit | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | SHFE Lead | 16,845 | 16,850 | 5 | Yuan/ton | | LME Lead | 2,003.5 | 1,981 | -22.5 | US dollars/ton | | SHFE - LME Ratio | 8.41 | 8.51 | 0.10 | - | | SHFE Inventory | 62,334 | 64,844 | 2,510 | Tons | | LME Inventory | 268,375 | 261,100 | -7,275 | Tons | | Social Inventory | 3.59 | 3.94 | 0.35 | Ten thousand tons | | Spot Premium | -150 | -155 | -5 | Yuan/ton | [5] Market Review - The price of the main SHFE lead contract PB2509 declined under pressure last week. The price rebounded but was blocked by the integer resistance level and then fell, closing at 16,850 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 0.03%. LME lead first rose and then fell, closing at 1,981 US dollars/ton, with a weekly decline of 1.12% [6]. - In the spot market, as of August 15, the price of lead in the Shanghai and Jiangsu - Zhejiang markets showed a downward trend. The inventory of LME decreased, while the SHFE inventory and social inventory increased. The delivery of the current - month contract led to an increase in inventory [7]. Industry News - As of August 15, the average domestic lead concentrate processing fee remained unchanged, while the average import ore processing fee decreased by 15 US dollars/ton compared to the previous period [10]. - Some lead - smelting enterprises in Henan may face air - quality environmental protection emergency control from August 26 to September 3, which may restrict vehicle transportation [10]. Related Charts The report provides multiple charts, including SHFE and LME lead prices, SHFE - LME ratios, inventory levels, lead price premiums and discounts, price differences between primary and secondary lead, waste battery prices, secondary lead enterprise profits, lead ore processing fees, electrolytic lead and secondary refined lead production, lead ingot social inventory, and refined lead import profit and loss [12][13][15][18][19][21][23][25].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content 2. Core View of the Report - Last week, industrial silicon showed a strong and volatile trend, mainly due to the strong price - holding atmosphere in each link of the photovoltaic industry chain. The polysilicon market had a lot of "rumors", but market transactions were relatively limited, and the anti - involution sentiment continued to ferment. It is expected that the futures price will maintain a volatile and strong operation in the short term [2][3][6]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Data | Contract | 8/15 Price | 8/8 Price | Change | Change Rate | Unit | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Industrial silicon main contract | 8805.00 | 8710.00 | 95.00 | 1.09% | Yuan/ton | | Oxygen - passing 553 spot | 9400.00 | 9250.00 | 150.00 | 1.62% | Yuan/ton | | Non - oxygen - passing 553 spot | 9200.00 | 9100.00 | 100.00 | 1.10% | Yuan/ton | | 421 spot | 9750.00 | 9700.00 | 50.00 | 0.52% | Yuan/ton | | 3303 spot | 9600.00 | 9500.00 | 100.00 | 1.05% | Yuan/ton | | Silicone DMC spot | 11400.00 | 12150.00 | - 750.00 | - 6.17% | Yuan/ton | | Polysilicon dense material spot | 46.00 | 44.00 | 2.00 | 4.55% | Yuan/ton | | Industrial silicon social inventory | 54.5 | 54.7 | - 0.2 | - 0.37% | 10,000 tons | [4] 3.2 Market Analysis and Outlook - **Supply side**: The operating rate in Xinjiang rose to 57%, and the operating rates in Sichuan and Yunnan increased month - on - month, showing a marginally loose supply situation. As of August 14, the weekly output of industrial silicon was 84,700 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.5% and a year - on - year decrease of 16.3%. The number of open furnaces in the three major production areas remained at 280, and the overall open - furnace rate slightly rose to 35.2% [6][7][8]. - **Demand side**: Polysilicon enterprises had a strong price - holding atmosphere, but transactions were limited near the end of the signing period. The inventory in the silicon wafer market decreased significantly, and most integrated enterprises tended to reduce production. Photovoltaic cell manufacturers mainly executed existing orders, and there might be resistance to the increase in domestic export orders. The component end showed a weak and volatile trend, and terminal demand was poor [2][6][8]. - **Inventory**: As of August 15, the national social inventory of industrial silicon decreased to 545,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2,000 tons. The warehouse receipt inventory of the Guangzhou Futures Exchange continued to rise to 50,599 lots, equivalent to 253,000 tons [9]. 3.3 Industry News - The automotive and photovoltaic industries held symposiums against disorderly competition. In 2024, the production capacity of Chinese chip manufacturers increased by 15%. In 2025, domestic wafer foundries will be the main force in the increase of mature - process production capacity, but price trends will be suppressed. Some enterprises are exploring ways to break through the low - level competition dilemma, such as Ruixin Micro focusing on basic capabilities and high - end markets [11]. - In the second half of 2025, the DDR4 market was in short supply, and prices rose strongly. The tight supply and demand in the DDR market also pushed up the contract price of Mobile DRAM. The third - quarter increase in LPDDR4X was the largest in a single quarter in the past decade. The demand for semiconductor hardware was growing steadily, and the storage sector was expected to continue to rise in the third and fourth quarters [12]. 3.4 Relevant Charts - The report provides 10 charts, including those related to industrial silicon production, export volume, social inventory, warehouse receipt inventory, production in major production areas, and prices of various products such as organic silicon DMC, polysilicon, and industrial silicon [15][18].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - Last week, the CBOT November soybean contract rose 56.25 to close at 1042.75 cents per bushel, a 5.7% increase; the soybean meal 09 contract rose 38 to close at 3083 yuan per ton, a 1.25% increase; the South China soybean meal spot price rose 60 to close at 2980 yuan per ton, a 2.05% increase; the rapeseed meal 09 contract fell 124 to close at 2649 yuan per ton; the Guangxi rapeseed meal spot price fell 90 to close at 2530 yuan per ton, a 3.44% decrease [4]. - The US soybeans rebounded significantly from the weekly low. The main reasons were that the August report unexpectedly cut the area by 2.5 million acres, tightening the supply, which was bullish; the US soybeans were in the critical pod - setting period, and the recent weather forecast turned dry, which might have an adverse impact on crop growth; with the low - price advantage of US soybeans, other countries' procurement of new crops exceeded expectations; the crushing demand in July was strong, providing support. The soybean meal fluctuated and closed higher, with increased volatility. The influencing factors included Trump's post at the beginning of the week hoping that China would increase US soybean imports, the domestic market declined and then rebounded under the emotional impact; the bullish support of the USDA report, combined with the anti - dumping investigation of Canadian rapeseed, tightened the long - term supply expectation [4]. - The cumulative precipitation in the US soybean producing areas in the next two weeks is lower than the average, which needs continuous attention. The USDA report cut the area and significantly raised the yield per unit. If the precipitation in the producing areas continues to be low, the yield per unit may be revised down. The US biodiesel policy is expanding, and the crushing demand is expected to remain strong, still supporting the price. The domestic short - term soybean and soybean meal supply is still available, and feed enterprises mainly replenish inventory on a rolling basis. The short - term Dalian soybean meal may fluctuate and be slightly stronger [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Data | Contract | 8/15 | 8/8 | Change | Change Rate | Unit | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | CBOT Soybean | 1042.75 | 986.50 | 56.25 | 5.70% | Cents/Bushel | | CNF Import Price: Brazil | 489.00 | 485.00 | 4.00 | 0.82% | US dollars/ton | | CNF Import Price: US Gulf | 456.00 | 443.00 | 13.00 | 2.93% | US dollars/ton | | Brazilian Soybean Crushing Profit on the Futures Market | - 54.34 | - 42.65 | - 11.69 | - | Yuan/ton | | DCE Soybean Meal | 3083.00 | 3045.00 | 38.00 | 1.25% | Yuan/ton | | CZCE Rapeseed Meal | 2649.00 | 2773.00 | - 124.00 | - 4.47% | Yuan/ton | | Soybean Meal - Rapeseed Meal Spread | 434.00 | 272.00 | 162.00 | - | Yuan/ton | | Spot Price: East China | 3020.00 | 2940.00 | 80.00 | 2.72% | Yuan/ton | | Spot Price: South China | 2980.00 | 2920.00 | 60.00 | 2.05% | Yuan/ton | | Spot - Futures Spread: South China | - 103.00 | - 125.00 | 22.00 | - | Yuan/ton | [5] Market Analysis and Outlook - The US soybeans rebounded significantly from the weekly low. The main reasons were the unexpected cut in area in the August report, the dry weather forecast during the pod - setting period, the strong procurement of new crops by other countries, and the strong crushing demand in July. The soybean meal fluctuated and closed higher, influenced by Trump's post, the bullish USDA report, and the anti - dumping investigation of Canadian rapeseed. The rapeseed meal showed a pattern of near - term weakness and long - term strength [8]. - The August USDA report was overall bullish, with a cut in the 2025/2026 US soybean planting area, an increase in yield per unit, a decrease in overall production, a decrease in new - crop export demand, an increase in old - crop export demand, and a decline in the 2025/2026 ending inventory. The US soybean growth indicators were in line with expectations, and about 3% of the planting area was affected by drought. The future 15 - day precipitation in the producing areas is expected to be lower than the average [9]. - As of the week of August 7, 2025, the US soybean export net sales in the current market year were - 378,000 tons, and the cumulative export sales in the 2024/2025 were 5.112 million tons, which had completed the USDA target. The new - crop export net sales in the 2025/2026 were 1.133 million tons, and the cumulative sales were 471,000 tons. China had not purchased new - crop US soybeans. The US soybean crushing profit and related prices showed certain changes, and the NOPA members' soybean crushing volume in July increased compared with June and July 2024. Brazil's August soybean and soybean meal export volume forecasts were raised [10]. - As of the week of August 8, 2025, the main oil mills' soybean inventory increased, the soybean meal inventory decreased, the unexecuted contracts decreased, and the national port soybean inventory increased. As of the week of August 15, 2025, the national soybean meal daily average trading volume decreased, the daily average pick - up volume was stable, the main oil mills' crushing volume increased, and the feed enterprises' soybean meal inventory days were stable [12]. - The US soybean producing area's precipitation needs continuous attention. The US biodiesel policy expansion will support the price. The domestic short - term supply is available, and the long - term supply is expected to be tight. The short - term Dalian soybean meal may fluctuate and be slightly stronger [13]. Industry News - In June 2025, Brazilian factories processed 4.55 million tons of soybeans, produced 3.47 million tons of soybean meal and 930,000 tons of soybean oil, with ending inventories of 23.28 million tons of soybeans, 2.68 million tons of soybean meal, and 480,000 tons of soybean oil [14]. - Brazil's soybean exports in the first week of August were 2.77445327 million tons, with a daily average export volume 27% higher than that in August last year. Canada's June 2025 rapeseed, rapeseed oil, and rapeseed meal exports were 651,106 tons, 223,217 tons, and 459,023 tons respectively [14]. - As of August 1, the US soybean, corn, and wheat unplanted areas were 1.199 million acres, 1.818 million acres, and 277,000 acres respectively. As of August 10, the EU's 2025/26 palm oil, soybean, soybean meal, and rapeseed imports decreased compared with last year [15]. - The predicted 2024/25 Brazilian soybean production, planting area, and yield per unit increased compared with the previous year and the previous forecast. The Brazilian 2024/25 soybean production, crushing volume, export, soybean oil production, and soybean meal production forecasts were raised [16]. - Argentina's 2024/25 soybean production was expected to be 50.2 million tons, a 2% upward revision [17]. Relevant Charts The report provides multiple charts, including the US soybean continuous contract trend, Brazilian soybean CNF to - shore price, RMB spot exchange rate trend, regional crushing profit, soybean meal main contract trend, etc., to visually show the market conditions of soybeans and soybean meal [19][25][28]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Macro aspect: During the reporting period, macro expectations fluctuated. At the beginning of the week, the market's expectation of three Fed rate cuts within the year significantly increased, with a potential rate cut of up to 175bp by the end of 2026. However, after the PPI data was released at the end of the week, the market reversed its assessment of inflation risks, and Fed officials released hawkish statements, leading to repeated macro expectations [3]. - Fundamental aspect: Overseas nickel ore supply is becoming more abundant, but there are no obvious signs of price decline. Ferronickel prices are rising, and ferronickel plant profits are recovering. However, stainless steel lacks upward momentum, and resource circulation is poor, resulting in weak ferronickel consumption. The nickel sulfate market remains hot, but terminal consumption is weak, and the sustainability of the market's heat is questionable. The spot market for pure nickel is sluggish, with strong downstream wait - and - see sentiment, and stable fluctuations in premiums and discounts [3]. - Future outlook: High inflation and weak employment may lead to repeated swings in rate - cut expectations, causing nickel prices to fluctuate. High tariffs are increasing upstream inflation pressure, and rising PPI may be transmitted to CPI. At the same time, weak non - farm data and rising unemployment may slow down total demand. The market's expectations for Fed monetary policy may swing between inflation control and employment stability. In the industry, stainless steel prices are falling after a rise, and new energy vehicle consumption growth has turned negative. Supply is expected to be stable, and there is an expectation of a weakening in the ore end, but it has not materialized. Overall, nickel prices will fluctuate under macro - level drivers [3][11]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - Macro: As of August 9, the initial jobless claims were 224,000, lower than the expected 228,000. The US PPI annual rate in July was 3.3%, higher than the expected 2.5%. The monthly PPI in July increased by 0.9%, much higher than the expected 0.2%. At the beginning of the week, the US Treasury Secretary's remarks boosted rate - cut expectations, while at the end of the week, hawkish statements were released due to inflation concerns [5]. - Nickel ore: The FOB price of 1.5% laterite nickel ore in the Philippines dropped from $51/wet ton to $50/wet ton, while the domestic FOB price of 1.5% laterite nickel ore in Indonesia rose from $37.55/wet ton to $37.75/wet ton. Although the supply of nickel ore is expected to be more abundant, the price of Indonesian nickel ore remains firm [5]. - Pure nickel: In July, domestic monthly production capacity decreased slightly by 400 tons to 53,699 tons, while smelter production plans increased slightly month - on - month. In July, electrolytic nickel production was 32,800 tons, an increase of about 1,000 tons from the previous month, and the operating rate was 61.08%, up about 1.86 percentage points. In June, domestic electrolytic nickel exports decreased by 5.66% year - on - year and 3,830 tons month - on - month, while imports increased by 119.71% year - on - year. As of August 14, the export profit of nickel in China was - $6.68/ton. Overall, import resources are stable, but export profits are shrinking, and smelting supply remains high [6]. - Ferronickel: The price of high - nickel pig iron (10% - 12%) rose from 912 yuan/nickel point to 918.5 yuan/nickel point. In July, China's ferronickel production was about 24,540 metal tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.44%. In June, domestic ferronickel imports were about 1.0414 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 50.05%. Imports from Indonesia were about 1.0177 million tons, a significant month - on - month increase. In July, Indonesia's ferronickel production was about 134,400 tons, a year - on - year increase of 28.14% and a month - on - month decrease of 1.73%. As of July 31, the physical ton inventory of ferronickel was 284,900 tons, an increase of about 31,000 tons from the previous period [7]. - Stainless steel: In July, the production plan for 300 - series stainless steel in China was about 1.74 million tons, an increase of about 15 tons compared to the same period last year and unchanged month - on - month. Although stainless steel prices have rebounded, downstream demand is weak, and holders are actively reducing prices to sell. The recovery space for ferronickel is limited due to weak consumption [8]. - Nickel sulfate: The price of battery - grade nickel sulfate rose from 27,440 yuan/ton to 27,530 yuan/ton, while the price of electroplating - grade nickel sulfate remained at 28,000 yuan/ton. In July, the metal output of nickel sulfate was about 29,084 tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.77% and a month - on - month increase of 17.3%. The output of ternary materials in July increased to about 68,600 tons, a year - on - year increase of 16.7% and a month - on - month increase of 5.8%. As of August 8, the downstream inventory days of nickel sulfate increased to 11 days, while the upstream inventory days remained at about 6 days. The spot market for nickel sulfate is hot, but price increases are mainly cost - driven, and production profitability remains negative overall [8]. - New energy: From August 1 - 10, the retail sales of the national passenger car market were 452,000 vehicles, a 4% year - on - year decrease and a 6% month - on - month increase. The retail sales of the national new energy passenger car market were 262,000 vehicles, a 6% year - on - year and month - on - month increase, with a retail penetration rate of 57.9%. The new energy market is also showing signs of weakness, and the consumption in August is facing high - base pressure. Although subsidy policies may boost consumption, the core driving force for consumption lies in employment and income [9]. - Inventory: The current total social inventory of pure nickel in six locations is 41,891 tons, a decrease of 1,319 tons from the previous period. The SHFE inventory is 22,141 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1,418 tons. The LME nickel inventory is 211,662 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 570 tons. The total inventory of the two major global exchanges is 233,803 tons, a month - on - month increase of 848 tons [10]. 3.2 Industry News - Winshear Gold Corp. has signed an option agreement for the Portsoy nickel - copper - cobalt project in Scotland. If the agreement is approved, Winshear will obtain 100% equity in the project, covering 250 square kilometers. Winshear promises to invest £3 million in 5 years and issue 6.5 million shares to Peak Nickel. Peak Nickel will retain a 1% NSR with a maximum limit of £10 million and may receive a 10% share of the proceeds if the project is acquired by a third party [12]. - Lifezone Metals has obtained a $60 million bridge loan for its Kabanga nickel project in Tanzania. The Kabanga project is one of the largest and highest - grade undeveloped nickel sulfide projects in the world, containing over 2 million tons of battery - grade metal resources and significant amounts of copper and cobalt [12]. - The nickel industry in Indonesia is facing multiple challenges, including regulatory pressure, ESG compliance requirements, and the need to increase downstream added value. Rising costs such as royalties, reclamation deposits, and the upcoming global minimum tax may force some smelters to shut down. The APNI has developed national ESG parameters by integrating 57 regulations from six ministries with international standards [12]. 3.3 Related Charts - The report provides multiple charts, including those showing the trends of domestic and international nickel prices, spot premiums and discounts, LME0 - 3 nickel premiums and discounts, nickel domestic - to - foreign ratios, nickel futures inventory, nickel ore port inventory, high - nickel iron prices, 300 - series stainless steel prices, and stainless steel inventory [14][16].

Report Title and Date - The report is titled "Palm Oil Weekly Report" and dated August 18, 2025 [1][3] Market Data - BMD Malaysian palm oil main contract rose 224 to close at 4,478 ringgit/ton, a 5.27% increase; palm oil 09 contract rose 414 to close at 9,394 yuan/ton, a 4.61% increase; soybean oil 09 contract rose 162 to close at 8,562 yuan/ton, a 1.93% increase; rapeseed oil 09 contract rose 233 to close at 9,807 yuan/ton, a 2.43% increase; CBOT US soybean oil main contract rose 0.79 to close at 53.22 cents/pound, a 1.51% increase; ICE canola active contract fell 9.5 to close at 660.5 Canadian dollars/ton, a 1.42% decrease [4][5][7] - The spot price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangzhou, Guangdong rose 270 to 9,300 yuan/ton, a 2.99% increase; the spot price of first - grade soybean oil in Rizhao rose 110 to 8,600 yuan/ton, a 1.30% increase; the spot price of imported third - grade rapeseed oil in Zhangjiagang, Jiangsu rose 230 to 9,900 yuan/ton, a 2.38% increase [5] - The futures spread between soybean oil and palm oil decreased by 252 to - 832 yuan/ton, and the futures spread between rapeseed oil and palm oil decreased by 181 to 413 yuan/ton [5] Market Analysis and Outlook Market Performance - The domestic oil sector fluctuated and rose, with palm oil showing strength and rapeseed oil rising and then falling under policy influence. The long - term expansion of biodiesel policies in Indonesia and the US supports the long - term demand for soybean and palm oil. Rapeseed oil has a global supply, and policies may change the trade pattern, with relatively weak demand growth expectations compared to soybean and palm oil, but there is an expectation of tightening domestic long - term supply [4][8] MPOB Report - In July, Malaysia's palm oil ending inventory increased 4.02% to 2.113 million tons, lower than the market expectation of 2.25 million tons. Production increased 7.09% to 1.812 million tons, exports increased 3.82% to 1.309 million tons, imports decreased 12.82% to 61,000 tons, and domestic consumption increased 6.63% to 483,000 tons [8] US Department of Agriculture Report - The US Department of Agriculture's August oilseed report shows that the global palm oil production in the 2025/26 season is expected to be 80.736 million tons, unchanged from last month's estimate; the ending inventory is expected to be 15.034 million tons, a downward revision of 4,000 tons from last month's estimate; and exports are expected to be 46.163 million tons, unchanged from last month's estimate. Indonesia's palm oil exports are expected to be 24 million tons, and Malaysia's are expected to be 16.1 million tons, both unchanged from last month's estimates [9][10] Other Data - From August 1 - 5, 2025, Malaysia's palm oil yield per unit decreased 19.32% month - on - month, the oil extraction rate increased 0.39% month - on - month, and production decreased 17.27% month - on - month. From August 1 - 15, Malaysia's palm oil exports increased significantly compared to the previous period [10] - India's palm oil imports in July were 855,695 tons, down from 955,683 tons in June; sunflower oil imports were 200,010 tons, down from 216,141 tons in June; total vegetable oil imports were 1.579041 million tons, up from 1.549825 million tons in June; and soybean oil imports were 492,336 tons, up from 359,504 tons in June [11] - As of the week of August 8, 2025, the inventory of the three major oils in key domestic regions was 2.3967 million tons, an increase of 35,600 tons from last week and 284,700 tons from the same period last year. As of the week of August 15, 2025, the weekly average daily trading volume of soybean oil in key domestic regions was 27,540 tons, down from 30,880 tons the previous week; the weekly average daily trading volume of palm oil was 690 tons, up from 437 tons the previous week [12] Market Outlook - Macroscopically, the US - Russia presidential meeting ended, and the negotiation process may be difficult. The US retail sales in July increased 0.5% month - on - month, consumer demand remains resilient, the US dollar index fluctuates, and oil prices fluctuate within a narrow range. Fundamentally, Malaysia's export demand has increased significantly, Indonesia's B40 policy is being implemented with low inventory, and Malaysia's inventory build - up in July was lower than expected. In the short term, palm oil may fluctuate strongly [4][13] Industry News - Indonesia's trade authorities are asking palm oil producers to increase local market sales under the "Domestic Market Obligation (DMO)" plan to lower prices, with a monthly DMO level of 175,000 tons by the end of the year [14] - Analysts expect Malaysia's palm oil inventory to remain high in the near term. RHB Investment Bank believes that production will increase before the peak season, demand will improve, inventory will continue to increase above 2 million tons, palm oil prices will decline in Q3 and rise in Q4. Maybank Investment Bank also expects higher palm oil production in Malaysia and Indonesia in 2025 [15] - Indian traders estimate that in the 2024/25 season, soybean oil imports may increase 60% to 5.5 million tons, palm oil imports may decrease 13.5% to 7.8 million tons, sunflower oil imports may decrease 20% to 2.8 million tons, and total edible oil imports may increase 1% to 16.1 million tons [15] - Indonesia has saved at least $3.68 billion in foreign exchange this year through the use of palm - based biodiesel. As of June, 6.8 million kiloliters of B40 biodiesel have been distributed, and the goal of distributing 13.5 million kiloliters in 2025 is half - completed [16] Related Charts - The report includes charts on the price trends of Malaysian palm oil, US soybean oil, the three major oils, palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil in both futures and spot markets, as well as charts on inventory, production, and export volume of palm oil in Malaysia and Indonesia, and the commercial inventory of the three major oils in China [17][19][22]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week, the main contract price of Shanghai zinc futures fluctuated slightly. Macroeconomically, the extension of Sino - US tariffs, the moderate growth of US CPI but the unexpected increase in PPI, and the changing expectations of the Fed's interest rate cut in September led to the stabilization of the US dollar. In China, the financial and economic data in July were weak, indicating a slow economic recovery, although the new fiscal policies for personal consumption loan subsidies were helpful for economic repair [3][12]. - Fundamentally, the temporary shutdown of Nexa's mines had no substantial impact on production. The recovery of zinc concentrates was smooth, and the processing fees improved, boosting refinery profits and maintaining a high supply of refined zinc. On the demand side, the approaching military parade in early September affected the black - metal industry, with some stocking behaviors. The start - up rates of different downstream industries varied. Overseas, LME continued to reduce inventories, which supported zinc prices [4][12][13]. - Overall, the fundamental contradiction is concentrated overseas. The LME inventory reduction strongly supports zinc prices, but the repeated interest - rate cut expectations and the digestion of the inventory - reduction benefits limit the upside of zinc prices. Considering the uncertainty of the Russia - Ukraine situation and the upcoming speech by Powell, zinc prices are expected to fluctuate this week [4][13]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Transaction Data | Contract | 8/8 | 8/15 | Change | Unit | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | SHFE Zinc | 22515 | 22505 | - 10 | Yuan/ton | | LME Zinc | 2834 | 2796.5 | - 37.5 | US dollars/ton | | SHFE - LME Ratio | 7.94 | 8.05 | 0.10 | | | SHFE Inventory | 65917 | 76803 | 10886 | Tons | | LME Inventory | 81500 | 76325 | - 5175 | Tons | | Social Inventory | 11.69 | 10.37 | - 1.32 | Ten thousand tons | | Spot Premium | - 30 | - 50 | - 20 | Yuan/ton | [5] 3.2 Market Review - The main contract of Shanghai zinc (ZN2510) first rose and then fell last week. Market risk appetite changed with interest - rate cut expectations. The US dollar first fell and then rose, and zinc prices followed a similar trend. Eventually, it closed at 22505 yuan/ton, with a weekly decline of 0.04%. LME zinc fluctuated sideways, supported by continuous low - level inventory reduction but restricted by the rebound of the US dollar, closing at 2796.5 US dollars/ton, with a weekly decline of 1.32% [6]. - In the spot market as of August 15, prices in different regions varied, with downstream demand mainly for rigid needs, and spot transactions were mostly among traders, with a slight spot discount [7]. - In terms of inventory, as of August 15, LME zinc inventory decreased by 5175 tons, while SHFE inventory increased by 10886 tons. As of August 14, social inventory increased by 1.60 million tons compared with last Thursday, mainly due to low downstream提货 during the off - season and the impact of the upcoming military parade in Tianjin [8]. - Macroeconomically, in the US, the CPI in July increased moderately, but the PPI growth exceeded expectations. There were different views among Fed officials on interest - rate cuts. Sino - US tariffs were extended for 90 days. In China, the financial data in July were weak, but new fiscal policies for personal consumption loan subsidies were introduced [9][10][11]. 3.3 Industry News - As of August 15, the average weekly domestic TC price of SMM Zn50 remained unchanged at 3900 yuan/metal ton, and the SMM imported zinc concentrate index rose by 8.05 US dollars/dry ton to 90.3 US dollars/dry ton [14]. - According to 29Metals' second - quarter report, its zinc concentrate production in the second quarter was 12,300 tons, a 28% decrease from the previous quarter, mainly due to the decrease in zinc grade and recovery rate. Its production guidance for 2025 is 60,000 - 70,000 tons [14]. - On August 12, Nexa Resources' Cerro Pasco mining complex was partially shut down due to illegal blockades, but it had no substantial impact on production, and the production guidance remained unchanged [15].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The uncertainty and consistent expectations in the macro - environment remain weak, and market sentiment is easily swayed by changes in interest - rate hike expectations. The economic downturn risk caused by tariffs may also dominate the market at any time, with the long and short sentiments expected to switch back and forth, and the macro - impact volatility remaining large. On the fundamental side, the supply is basically stable, the consumption end is at the transition point between peak and off - peak seasons, the bearish expectations for future consumption are weakening, and the accumulation of social inventory is slowing down. Overall, the market has both long and short factors, and aluminum prices are expected to continue to fluctuate [3][8] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Transaction Data - The price of LME Aluminum 3 - month decreased by 12.0 yuan/ton from 2615 on August 8, 2025, to 2603 on August 15, 2025. The SHFE Aluminum Continuous Three increased by 95.0 dollars/ton from 20610 to 20705 during the same period. The Shanghai - London aluminum ratio rose by 0.1 to 8.0. The LME spot premium increased by 4.1 dollars/ton to 1.79. The LME aluminum inventory increased by 8975.0 tons to 479550 tons. The SHFE aluminum warehouse - receipt inventory increased by 21592.0 tons. The spot average price rose by 104.0 yuan/ton, and the spot premium increased by 50.0 yuan/ton. The South Reserve spot average price increased by 56.0 yuan/ton, and the Shanghai - Guangdong price difference increased by 48.0 yuan/ton. The electrolytic aluminum theoretical average cost decreased by 5.8 yuan/ton, while the electrolytic aluminum weekly average profit increased by 109.8 yuan/ton [4] 3.2 Market Review - The weekly average price of the spot market was 20694 yuan/ton, up 104 yuan/ton from last week; the South Reserve spot weekly average price was 20652 yuan/ton, up 56 yuan/ton from last week. In the macro - aspect, the Sino - US trade negotiation made progress, and the market's expectation of the Fed's interest - rate cut first increased and then decreased. In China, the social financing scale and RMB loans increased in the first seven months of this year. The growth rate of industrial added value in July was 5.7%, and the service industry production index was 5.8%. The consumption and investment growth rates on the demand side declined. The year - on - year growth rate of social retail sales in July was 3.7%. The export year - on - year growth rate was 7.2%. On the consumption side, the operating rate of the domestic downstream aluminum processing industry increased by 0.8 percentage points to 59.5%. In terms of inventory, the electrolytic aluminum ingot inventory was 58.8 tons, up 2.4 tons from last Thursday, and the aluminum rod inventory was 13.85 tons, down 0.5 tons from last Thursday [5][6][7] 3.3 Market Outlook - The macro - environment has high uncertainty, and market sentiment is easily affected by interest - rate hike expectations. The economic downturn risk caused by tariffs may also dominate the market. On the fundamental side, the supply is stable, the consumption end is at the transition between peak and off - peak seasons, the bearish expectations for future consumption are weakening, and the accumulation of social inventory is slowing down. Overall, the market has both long and short factors, and aluminum prices are expected to continue to fluctuate [8] 3.4 Industry News - Century Aluminum will restart about 57,000 tons of idle capacity at its Mt. Holly smelter in South Carolina, with an investment of about 50 million dollars, aiming to increase the local aluminum production in the US by nearly 10%. The plant is expected to reach full production by June 30, 2026, with an annual primary aluminum output of about 730,000 tons. Henan Wanjji Aluminum Industry Co., Ltd. will transfer 580,000 tons of production capacity to Xinjiang, with a planned production start in December 2027. Mozambique's Mozal aluminum plant faces the risk of shutdown due to power issues, and the company is communicating to ensure power supply after March 2026 [9] 3.5 Related Charts - The report provides charts on the price trends of LME Aluminum 3 - month and SHFE Aluminum Continuous Three, the Shanghai - London aluminum ratio, LME aluminum premium, Shanghai aluminum inter - period spread, Shanghai - Guangdong price difference, spot premium seasonality, domestic and imported alumina prices, electrolytic aluminum cost - profit, electrolytic aluminum inventory seasonality, and aluminum rod inventory seasonality [10][11][14][15][16]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Last week, precious metal prices showed a volatile correction. Higher - than - expected US inflation data dampened rate - cut expectations, and the optimistic global trade sentiment boosted investor confidence, leading to a rise in market risk appetite and putting pressure on gold and silver prices [3][5]. - The higher - than - expected US PPI data in July indicated persistent inflation pressure, and the labor market remained resilient, weakening the expectation of a significant rate cut in September. However, some senior officials still called for rate cuts, and monetary policy remained highly uncertain [3][5]. - The market focus has shifted to the US - Russia - Ukraine meeting and its potential impact on the geopolitical situation and safe - haven assets. Gold and silver are expected to show a volatile trend in the short term [3][6]. 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Last Week's Trading Data | Contract | Closing Price | Change | Change Rate (%) | Total Volume (Lots) | Total Open Interest (Lots) | Price Unit | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | SHFE Gold | 775.80 | - 12.00 | - 1.52 | 197655 | 178255 | Yuan/gram | | Shanghai Gold T + D | 623.59 | 31.69 | 5.35 | 23234 | 198744 | Yuan/gram | | COMEX Gold | 3381.70 | - 76.50 | - 2.21 | | | US dollars/ounce | | SHFE Silver | 9204 | - 74 | - 0.80 | 522479 | 634627 | Yuan/kilogram | | Shanghai Silver T + D | 7762 | 212 | 2.81 | 452542 | 3447314 | Yuan/kilogram | | COMEX Silver | 38.02 | - 0.49 | - 1.27 | | | US dollars/ounce | [4] 3.2 Market Analysis and Outlook - Precious metal prices showed a volatile correction last week due to higher - than - expected US inflation data and optimistic global trade sentiment [3][5]. - The US PPI data in July and the labor market situation weakened the expectation of a significant rate cut in September, but there were still calls for rate cuts from some officials, and monetary policy was uncertain [3][5]. - After the "Trump - Putin meeting", the market is paying attention to the US - Russia - Ukraine meeting and its impact on geopolitics and safe - haven assets. Gold and silver will be volatile in the short term. This week, key data such as the preliminary PMI data for July in the US and the Eurozone and the number of initial jobless claims in the US should be focused on, as well as events like the release of the Fed's July monetary policy meeting minutes, the Jackson Hole Central Bank Symposium, and the possible US - Russia - Ukraine tripartite meeting [6]. 3.3 Important Data Information - US CPI in July was flat year - on - year at 2.7%, lower than the expected 2.8%, and rose 0.2% month - on - month, in line with market expectations. Core CPI rose 3.1% year - on - year, higher than the expected 3%, reaching a new high since February [8]. - US PPI in July soared to 3.3% year - on - year, the highest since February this year, far exceeding the expected 2.5%, and rose 0.9% month - on - month, the largest increase since June 2022, further frustrating the Fed's September rate - cut expectation [8]. - The number of initial jobless claims in the US last week dropped to 224,000, lower than the expected 228,000, a slight decrease of 3,000, remaining at a low level since November 2021. The number of continued claims dropped to 1.953 million, slightly lower than expected but still hovering at a high level since 2021, indicating a still - robust labor market [8]. - US retail sales in July increased 0.5% month - on - month, with real retail sales growing for the tenth consecutive month. The year - on - year increase was 3.9%, and the June data was revised up to 0.9%. After inflation adjustment, real retail sales increased 1.2% year - on - year, showing resilient consumer spending [8]. - The preliminary value of the University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index in the US in August was 58.6, lower than the expected 62, and the sub - indices also declined. Both short - and long - term inflation expectations rose, reflecting concerns about the impact of tariffs [9]. - The preliminary value of the 1 - year inflation expectation of the University of Michigan in the US in August was 4.9%, erasing last month's improvement, and the 5 - year inflation expectation was 3.9%, higher than expected [9]. - The ZEW Economic Sentiment Index in the Eurozone in August was 25.1, down from the previous value of 36.1. In Germany, it was 34.7, lower than the expected 39.8 and the previous value of 52.7 [9]. 3.4 Related Data Charts - **Precious Metal ETF Holdings Changes**: As of August 15, 2025, the total gold holdings of ETFs were 965.37 tons, an increase of 5.73 tons from last week, 21.74 tons from last month, and 110.40 tons from last year. The silver holdings of ishare were 15071.31 tons, an increase of 80.51 tons from last week, 413.10 tons from last month, and 595.01 tons from last year [10]. - **CFTC Non - commercial Positions Changes**: For gold futures on August 12, 2025, non - commercial long positions were 288,115, non - commercial short positions were 58,630, and non - commercial net long positions were 229,485, a decrease of 7,565 from last week. For silver futures on the same date, non - commercial long positions were 66,252, non - commercial short positions were 21,984, and non - commercial net long positions were 44,268, a decrease of 6,390 from last week [11][13].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Views of the Report - The short - term boost to bullish sentiment from domestic ore disturbance news has ended, but the long - term shortage of domestic ore remains. Imported ore from Guinea has reduced shipments during the rainy season, and the ore price is expected to be stable, providing cost support for alumina. Supply is steadily increasing slightly with little overall pressure. Alumina is expected to remain volatile in the short term, and in the medium - to - long term, attention should be paid to the implementation of increased production capacity, which may face pressure then [3] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Transaction Data - From August 8 to August 15, 2025, the alumina futures (active) rose from 3170 yuan/ton to 3205 yuan/ton, an increase of 35 yuan/ton. The domestic alumina spot price dropped from 3275 yuan/ton to 3270 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5 yuan/ton. The spot premium decreased from 115 yuan/ton to 107 yuan/ton, a decrease of 8 yuan/ton. The Australian alumina FOB price dropped from 373 dollars/ton to 366.5 dollars/ton, a decrease of 6.5 dollars/ton. The import profit and loss changed from - 31.34 yuan/ton to 14.16 yuan/ton, an increase of 45.5 yuan/ton. The exchange warehouse inventory increased from 26182 tons to 65771 tons, an increase of 39589 tons, and the exchange factory warehouse inventory remained at 0 tons. The prices of bauxite in various regions remained unchanged [4] 3.2 Market Review - The main alumina futures contract rose 0.12% last week, closing at 3205 yuan/ton. The national weighted average price in the spot market was reported at 3270 yuan/ton on Friday, down 5 yuan/ton from the previous week. The policy of adjusting the registration authority for some ore types in Shanxi has not directly affected the current ore supply. The shortage of domestic ore supply continues, and the supply tension has intensified due to weather factors, causing the previous downward trend of ore prices to stop and stabilize. The rainy season in Guinea has affected the shipment of imported ore, and the short - term price remains stable. On the supply side, the profit margin is acceptable, and the production willingness of enterprises is high. The operating capacity of alumina remains at a high level. As of August 14, the built - in capacity of alumina in China was 11480 million tons, the operating capacity was 9520 million tons, and the operating rate was 82.93%. On the consumption side, the electrolytic aluminum capacity in Shandong is being transferred to Yunnan, and the electrolytic aluminum enterprises in Guangxi are resuming production. Overall, the operating capacity of electrolytic aluminum has increased slightly this week, leading to a slight increase in the demand for alumina. In terms of inventory, the alumina futures warehouse receipt inventory increased by 40245 tons to 66000 tons last Friday, and the factory warehouse inventory remained at 0 tons [5] 3.3 Market Outlook - Similar to the core view, the news of adjusting the resource registration authority for ore types in Shanxi last week led to a sharp upgrade of the expectation of domestic ore shortage, and the alumina futures rebounded strongly again. However, the policy mainly affects mines that are either shut down or under - constructed, and has limited impact on the current domestic ore supply. It is expected that the annual production of domestic bauxite in 2025 can still reach 68 - 70 million tons, and the bullish sentiment has not continued to ferment. On the supply side, alumina maintains good industry profits, and enterprises have a high willingness to start production. The operating capacity continued to increase slightly last week. On the consumption side, the electrolytic aluminum capacity increased slightly, and the theoretical demand increased slightly. The regional tightness of the spot market persists, and the spot price is relatively resilient. The warehouse receipt inventory increased by 40245 tons to 66000 tons during the week, and the factory warehouse inventory remained at 0 tons [3][7] 3.4 Industry News - The Shanxi Provincial Department of Natural Resources has adjusted the registration authority for the transfer of some ore types to strengthen the protection of strategic mineral resources such as bauxite and gallium. Guinea's Zhicheng Mining has been approved to resume exporting bauxite through the Kokaya Port. Vedanta expects that with the upcoming approval of the Simal bauxite mine, the cash cost of primary aluminum in the second half of fiscal year 2026 will drop below 1700 dollars/ton [8] 3.5 Related Charts - The report provides multiple charts, including the price trends of alumina futures and spot, alumina spot premium, alumina inter - period spread, domestic and imported bauxite prices, caustic soda price, thermal coal price, alumina cost - profit, and alumina exchange inventory [9][12][14][15][17][20][22][23]

Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided in the report regarding the industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints - The hot PPI data in the US has dampened the expectations of interest rate cuts, and the domestic risk appetite may enter an adjustment phase. The A - share market may experience profit - taking and volume contraction after breaking through the high point, and the bond market opportunities may be driven by the central bank's bond - buying restart and weakening fundamentals [2][3]. - The unexpectedly strong inflation data in the US has put pressure on precious metals, and the short - term trend of gold and silver is expected to be weak and volatile [4]. - The unexpected rise in US PPI has caused copper prices to oscillate at a high level. The divergence between hawks and doves within the Fed on interest rate cuts and the supply disruption of copper mines will affect copper prices [7][8]. - The unexpected PPI data in the US has hit the market's confidence in interest rate cuts, and the aluminum price is expected to oscillate. The improvement in the fundamentals of aluminum is expected to strengthen, providing support for the price [9][10]. - The alumina market is in a stalemate, with both bullish and bearish factors coexisting, and it is expected to continue to oscillate [11]. - The cooling of interest rate cut expectations and the increase in domestic inventories have put pressure on zinc prices, which are expected to maintain a small - scale adjustment [12]. - The approaching delivery has led to an increase in lead inventories, and the lead price is expected to oscillate below 17,000 yuan [13]. - The weakening of short - term interest rate cut expectations, the double - weak supply - demand fundamentals, and the lack of capital attention will cause tin prices to maintain a small - scale adjustment at a high level [15]. - The marginal relaxation of supply has caused industrial silicon to oscillate and weaken, and the short - term futures price is expected to enter a weak and oscillating rhythm [16][17]. - There is a lack of new short - term positive factors for lithium carbonate, and the long - and short - term players are competing around the resource end, resulting in an oscillating price [18][19]. - The nickel market is affected by the repeated macro - expectations and is expected to oscillate [20]. - The outcome of the US - Russia talks is awaited, and the oil price is expected to oscillate [21]. - The increase in steel inventories has caused steel prices to oscillate and weaken [22]. - The iron ore market is affected by supply and demand factors and is expected to oscillate [24]. - As the market sentiment cools, the soybean and rapeseed meal may enter an oscillating adjustment [25][26]. - The decline in India's palm oil imports in July may lead to a slightly stronger oscillating trend of palm oil [27][28]. Summary by Related Catalogs Macroeconomic Situation - Overseas: The US PPI in July increased by 0.9% month - on - month, reaching a three - year high, and 3.3% year - on - year, far exceeding the expected 2.5%. After the data release, the expectation of a 50 - basis - point interest rate cut in September was completely reversed, and the probability of no interest rate cut rose to 7%. The dollar index rose to 98.2, and the 10 - year US Treasury yield rebounded to 4.28% [2]. - Domestic: The A - share market rose and then fell, with the trading volume of the two markets reaching 2.31 trillion yuan. The bond market adjusted again after a brief recovery, with the 10 - year and 30 - year Treasury yields falling to 1.73% and 1.98% respectively [3]. Precious Metals - On Thursday, international precious metal futures generally closed lower. COMEX gold futures fell 0.76% to $3382.30 per ounce, and COMEX silver futures fell 1.47% to $38.04 per ounce. The unexpected strength of the US PPI in July dampened the expectations of interest rate cuts, putting pressure on precious metal prices [4]. Copper - On Thursday, the main contract of Shanghai copper oscillated around 79,000 yuan, and LME copper encountered resistance and fell back at 9800 yuan. The Codelco mine accident will result in a loss of 2 - 3 million tons of copper production this year. The unexpected rise in US PPI has slightly reduced the expectation of interest rate cuts, and copper prices are expected to enter a high - level oscillation [7][8]. Aluminum - On Thursday, the main contract of Shanghai aluminum closed at 20,715 yuan/ton, down 0.38%. The inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots increased slightly, and the inventory of aluminum rods decreased slightly. The unexpected PPI data in the US hit the market's confidence in interest rate cuts, and the aluminum price is expected to oscillate [9][10]. Alumina - On Thursday, the main contract of alumina futures closed at 3203 yuan/ton, down 2.08%. The market is in a stalemate, with both bullish and bearish factors coexisting, and it is expected to continue to oscillate [11]. Zinc - On Thursday, the main contract of Shanghai zinc oscillated weakly during the day and horizontally at night. The unexpected strength of the US PPI dampened the expectations of interest rate cuts, and the zinc price is expected to maintain a small - scale adjustment [12]. Lead - On Thursday, the main contract of Shanghai lead oscillated weakly during the day and horizontally at night. As the delivery approaches, the inventory has increased, and the lead price is expected to oscillate below 17,000 yuan [13]. Tin - On Thursday, the main contract of Shanghai tin oscillated weakly during the day and continued to fall at night. The weakening of short - term interest rate cut expectations, the double - weak supply - demand fundamentals, and the lack of capital attention will cause tin prices to maintain a small - scale adjustment at a high level [15]. Industrial Silicon - On Thursday, the main contract of industrial silicon maintained an oscillation. The supply has marginally relaxed, and the short - term futures price is expected to enter a weak and oscillating rhythm [16][17]. Lithium Carbonate - On Thursday, lithium carbonate oscillated. The raw material prices rose, and the long - and short - term players are competing around the resource end. There is a lack of new short - term positive factors, and the price is expected to oscillate [18][19]. Nickel - On Thursday, the nickel price oscillated weakly. The US upstream inflation pressure has increased, and the nickel market is affected by the repeated macro - expectations and is expected to oscillate [20]. Crude Oil - On Thursday, crude oil oscillated strongly. The US - Russia talks are imminent, and the final price trend depends on the negotiation results. The oil price is expected to oscillate [21]. Steel (Screw and Coil) - On Thursday, steel futures oscillated weakly. The supply of the five major steel products increased slightly, and the total inventory increased significantly. The steel price is expected to oscillate and weaken [22]. Iron Ore - On Thursday, iron ore futures oscillated and adjusted. The supply pressure is not significant, and the demand is affected by the off - season and manufacturing needs. The iron ore market is expected to oscillate [24]. Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - On Thursday, the soybean and rapeseed meal futures fell. The US soybean production is affected by weather and export sales. As the market sentiment cools, the soybean and rapeseed meal may enter an oscillating adjustment [25][26]. Palm Oil - On Thursday, palm oil futures fell. India's palm oil imports in July decreased, while soybean oil imports increased significantly. The palm oil price may oscillate strongly in the short term [27][28].