贵金属周报 2025 年 9 月 29 日 核心观点及策略 投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可【2015】84 号 李婷 金银维持强势，长假将至需防控风险 021-68555105 li.t@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F0297587 投资咨询号：Z0011509 黄蕾 huang.lei@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F0307990 投资咨询号：Z0011692 高慧 gao.h@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F03099478 投资咨询号：Z0017785 王工建 wang.gj@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F3084165 投资咨询号：Z0016301 赵凯熙 zhao.kx@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F03112296 投资咨询号：Z0021040 敬请参阅最后一页免责声明 1 / 10 ⚫ ⚫ 上周贵金属价格延续强势运行，国际金银价格在上周再创 新高，金价实现连续第六周上涨。上周五公布的美国通胀 数据符合市场预期，强化了市场对美联储今年晚些时候继 续降息的预期，贵金属价格在上周五再度强势上攻。 ⚫ 美国8月核心PCE价格指数环比上涨0.2%，同比上涨2.9%， 均 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The US second - quarter GDP was revised upwards, with inflation pressure remaining stubborn. The domestic anti - involution in various industries continued to advance. The A - share market was expected to maintain high - level fluctuations, and the bond market remained weak [2][3]. - Precious metals: Silver prices reached a new 14 - year high, and gold prices were oscillating at a high level. The uncertainty of the Fed's future monetary policy increased, and attention was paid to the PCE data [4]. - Copper: With the approaching of concentrate supply and the decline in domestic refined copper production expectations, copper prices were expected to maintain an oscillating upward trend in the short term [6][7]. - Aluminum: The reduction of the US economic growth rate and initial jobless claims limited the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations. The pre - holiday stocking boosted consumption, and aluminum prices were expected to remain stable and oscillate [8][9]. - Alumina: The pre - holiday stocking demand of downstream electrolytic aluminum plants increased, and the futures price was temporarily supported, but it was still expected to operate bearishly [10]. - Zinc: The weekly inventory reduction was obvious, and zinc prices had support at the bottom, but they lacked upward drive and were expected to continue low - level consolidation [11]. - Lead: The social inventory decreased significantly, which supported lead prices, but there was a risk of adjustment after high - level oscillation due to the recovery of supply and the decline of demand [12][13]. - Tin: Supported by the optimistic sentiment brought by the rise in copper prices and the low LME inventory, tin prices were oscillating at a high level [14]. - Lithium carbonate: The upstream production was active, and the downstream was in the seasonal peak season, but the spot performance was average, and lithium prices were oscillating [15]. - Nickel: The strong US economic data in the second quarter boosted nickel prices. Attention was paid to the intensity of typhoon disturbances, and nickel prices were oscillating [16][17]. - Soda ash and glass: The anti - involution policy was initially implemented in the glass industry, and the supply - demand of soda ash improved. Prices might still have the possibility of rising under policy drive [19][20]. - Steel: The steel inventory turned to reduction, and the futures price was expected to oscillate [21]. - Iron ore: The supply was stable, and the demand was supported by the pre - holiday replenishment. However, attention should be paid to the risk of high - level adjustment of futures prices [22][23]. 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Metal Main Varieties Yesterday's Trading Data - The report provided the closing data of major futures markets for various metal contracts, including closing prices, price changes, price change percentages, total trading volumes, total open interests, and price units [24]. 3.2 Industrial Data Perspective - For copper, the SHFE copper price increased, the LME copper price decreased slightly, and the inventory and other data changed [25]. - For nickel, the SHFE nickel price rose, the LME nickel price fell, and the inventory data was provided [25]. - For zinc, the SHFE zinc price increased, the LME zinc price was flat, and inventory and other data changed [28]. - For lead, the SHFE lead price rose slightly, the LME lead price increased, and inventory and other data changed [28]. - For aluminum, the SHFE aluminum price increased, the LME aluminum price rose, and inventory and other data changed [28]. - For alumina, the SHFE alumina price increased, and the national average spot price decreased slightly [28]. - For tin, the SHFE tin price increased, the LME tin price rose, and inventory and other data changed [28]. - For precious metals, the prices of gold and silver in different markets were provided, and the gold - silver ratio and inventory data were also given [28]. - For rebar, the futures price increased slightly, and data such as spot prices, basis, and price differences were provided [30]. - For iron ore, the futures price increased slightly, and data such as spot prices, basis, and freight rates were provided [30]. - For coke, the futures price increased, and data such as spot prices and price differences were provided [30]. - For coking coal, the futures price increased, and data such as spot prices and basis were provided [30]. - For lithium carbonate, the futures price increased, and data such as spot prices and price differences were provided [30]. - For industrial silicon, the futures price increased, and data such as spot prices were provided [30]. - For soybeans and meal, the prices of CBOT soybeans, soybean meal, and rapeseed meal changed, and data such as import prices and spot prices were provided [30][32].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Overseas, Powell mentioned that there are risks of rising inflation and falling employment, and the Fed needs to balance. The US September PMI was in line with expectations, with stocks adjusting, the dollar index fluctuating weakly, gold hitting a new high, and oil prices rising due to supply disruptions. Domestically, the stock, bond, and commodity markets all adjusted on Tuesday. The stock market is expected to continue to fluctuate, and the bond market is in a wait - and - see state with limited allocation space. [2][3] - Precious metals continued to rise, driven by factors such as the Fed's expected interest rate cut, geopolitical risks, a weak dollar, and the repair of the gold - silver ratio. They may show a volatile trend in the short term. [4] - Copper prices are expected to remain stable and volatile in the short term, with limited downward adjustment space, considering the Fed's policy stance and fundamental factors. [6][7] - Aluminum is expected to have a slow adjustment in the short term, with limited downside space, as market sentiment is cautious and fundamentals show improving consumption. [8][10] - Alumina continues to be weak, dominated by supply - side pressure. [11] - Zinc prices are expected to continue to trade in a narrow range at a low level, with limited downward adjustment space, as the market stabilizes and short - term consumption is disrupted by weather. [12] - Lead prices may decline as supply is expected to increase, although short - term support from pre - holiday stocking exists. [13][14] - Tin prices will maintain a high - level volatile trend, with their movement following market sentiment, as the raw material supply and demand contradiction is not significantly improved. [15] - Industrial silicon is expected to have a weak and volatile trend, considering supply growth and demand - side factors. [16][17] - Lithium carbonate prices are oscillating as the market is avoiding policy risks, although there are signs of marginal improvement in fundamentals. [18][19] - Nickel prices are fluctuating with limited driving factors, and the short - term trend may be adjusted under technical guidance. [20][21] - Oil prices are expected to be volatile in the short term, with a clear long - term downward trend due to supply surplus, but geopolitical factors are causing short - term disruptions. [22][23] - For soda ash and glass, the fundamentals are stable, and there are opportunities in the price spread. [24] - Steel prices are expected to oscillate and adjust as spot trading is poor. [25] - Iron ore prices are expected to maintain a high - level volatile trend, with supply and demand factors affecting the market. [26] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro - Overseas: Powell stated that inflation and employment risks coexist, and the Fed's decision - making is not driven by political factors. The US September S&P manufacturing and services PMI were in line with expectations, both in the expansion range. Stocks adjusted, the dollar index was weak, gold reached a new high, and oil prices rose. [2] - Domestic: The stock, bond, and commodity markets adjusted on Tuesday. The stock market is expected to continue to fluctuate, and the bond market is in a wait - and - see state. The 10Y and 30Y interest rates rose to 1.79% and 2.09% respectively. [3] 3.2 Precious Metals - COMEX gold futures rose 0.58% to $3796.9 per ounce, and COMEX silver futures rose 0.12% to $44.265 per ounce. Driven by multiple factors, precious metals are expected to maintain a strong performance in the long term but may show a volatile trend in the short term. [4][5] 3.3 Copper - Shanghai copper's main contract had a narrow - range oscillation, and LME copper hovered around the $10,000 mark. Considering the Fed's policy and fundamentals, copper prices are expected to remain stable and volatile in the short term, with limited downward adjustment space. [6][7] 3.4 Aluminum - Shanghai aluminum's main contract closed at 20,685 yuan per ton, down 0.41%. Due to market caution and improving fundamentals, it is expected to have a slow adjustment in the short term, with limited downside space. [8][10] 3.5 Alumina - The futures main contract closed at 2877 yuan per ton, down 1.94%. With supply pressure, it continues to be weak. [11] 3.6 Zinc - Shanghai zinc's main contract had an intraday decline and a night - session sideways movement. Affected by weather and market sentiment, it is expected to continue to trade in a narrow range at a low level, with limited downward adjustment space. [12] 3.7 Lead - Shanghai lead's main contract declined. With the expected increase in supply, lead prices may decline after the pre - holiday stocking phase. [13][14] 3.8 Tin - Shanghai tin's main contract had a high - level volatile trend. Although consumption improvement is limited, the raw material supply and demand contradiction supports tin prices, and its movement follows market sentiment. [15] 3.9 Industrial Silicon - The main contract of industrial silicon declined. With supply growth and demand - side factors, it is expected to have a weak and volatile trend. [16][17] 3.10 Lithium Carbonate - Lithium carbonate prices oscillated. Although there are signs of marginal improvement in fundamentals, the market is avoiding the risk of the September 30 lithium mine ruling. [18][19] 3.11 Nickel - Nickel prices fluctuated. With limited driving factors and unclear disturbances from Indonesian mine suspensions, the short - term trend may be adjusted under technical guidance. [20][21] 3.12 Crude Oil - Oil prices had a night - session gap - up opening. In the short term, they are expected to be volatile due to geopolitical factors, while in the long term, a downward trend is clear due to supply surplus. [22][23] 3.13 Soda Ash and Glass - The soda ash main contract oscillated, and the glass main contract was slightly stronger. The fundamentals are stable, and there are opportunities in the price spread. [24] 3.14 Steel (Screw and Coil) - Steel futures oscillated and declined slightly. With poor spot trading, prices are expected to oscillate and adjust. [25] 3.15 Iron Ore - Iron ore futures oscillated and adjusted. With supply and demand changes, it is expected to maintain a high - level volatile trend. [26] 3.16 Metal Main Varieties Trading Data - The report provides trading data for various metals such as copper, aluminum, zinc, etc., including closing prices, price changes, trading volumes, and positions on September 23. [27] 3.17 Industrial Data Perspective - It presents detailed industrial data for metals such as copper, nickel, zinc, etc., including inventory, spot quotes, and price differentials on September 23 and September 22. [29][33]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The macro - level shows that real estate investment continues to decline, infrastructure investment slows down, and terminal demand is weak. After the Fed's interest rate cut, the market expects policy intensification. - On the fundamental side, last week's industrial data was favorable. The output of the five major steel products decreased slightly, the apparent demand rebounded, and the inventory increased but the growth rate narrowed significantly. The inventory of rebar turned to decline. The apparent demand for rebar increased, but the terminal was weak, with limited rebound space. The demand for hot - rolled coils decreased month - on - month but still showed resilience. - It is expected that the futures price will show a volatile trend. [1][4][5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Transaction Data | Contract | Closing Price | Change | Change Rate (%) | Total Trading Volume (Lots) | Total Open Interest (Lots) | Price Unit | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | SHFE Rebar | 3172 | 36 | 1.15 | 8980373 | 3148179 | Yuan/ton | | SHFE Hot - rolled Coil | 3374 | 4 | 0.12 | 2777138 | 1412324 | Yuan/ton | | DCE Iron Ore | 807.5 | 11.5 | 1.44 | 1698860 | 533529 | Yuan/ton | | DCE Coking Coal | 1232.0 | 44.5 | 3.75 | 8119133 | 943381 | Yuan/ton | | DCE Coke | 1738.5 | 50.0 | 2.96 | 160217 | 52987 | Yuan/ton | [2] 3.2 Market Review - Last week, steel futures fluctuated and rebounded. In the spot market, the price of Tangshan steel billets was 3010 (+20) yuan/ton, the Shanghai rebar was quoted at 3220 (-20) yuan/ton, and the Shanghai hot - rolled coil was 3400 (+20) yuan/ton. - From January to August, the national real estate development investment was 60309 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 12.9%. The housing construction area of real estate development enterprises was 643109 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 9.3%. The new housing construction area was 39801 million square meters, a decrease of 19.5%. The national fixed - asset investment (excluding rural households) was 326111 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 0.5%. The investment in the production and supply of electricity, heat, gas, and water increased by 18.8%. The investment in water transportation increased by 15.9%, the investment in water conservancy management increased by 7.4%, and the investment in railway transportation increased by 4.5%. - In terms of the industry, last week, the rebar output was 2060000 tons, a decrease of 50000 tons month - on - month, the apparent demand was 2100000 tons, an increase of 120000 tons, the factory inventory was 1650000 tons, a decrease of 20000 tons, the social inventory was 4850000 tons, a decrease of 20000 tons, and the total inventory was 6500000 tons, a decrease of 40000 tons. The output of hot - rolled coils was 3260000 tons, an increase of 10000 tons, the factory inventory was 810000 tons, an increase of 4000 tons, the social inventory was 2970000 tons, an increase of 40000 tons, the total inventory was 3780000 tons, an increase of 50000 tons, and the apparent demand was 3220000 tons, a decrease of 40000 tons. [4][5] 3.3 Industry News - From January to August, the national real estate development investment was 60309 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 12.9%. The housing construction area of real estate development enterprises was 643109 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 9.3%. Among them, the residential construction area was 448460 million square meters, a decrease of 9.6%. The new housing construction area was 39801 million square meters, a decrease of 19.5%. Among them, the new residential construction area was 29304 million square meters, a decrease of 18.3%. The housing completion area was 27694 million square meters, a decrease of 17.0%. Among them, the residential completion area was 19876 million square meters, a decrease of 18.5%. - From January to August, the national fixed - asset investment (excluding rural households) was 326111 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 0.5%. In the secondary industry, industrial investment increased by 7.7% year - on - year. Among them, mining investment increased by 3.0%, manufacturing investment increased by 5.1%, and investment in the production and supply of electricity, heat, gas, and water increased by 18.8%. In the tertiary industry, infrastructure investment (excluding the production and supply of electricity, heat, gas, and water) increased by 2.0% year - on - year. Among them, the investment in water transportation increased by 15.9%, the investment in water conservancy management increased by 7.4%, and the investment in railway transportation increased by 4.5%. [6][7] 3.4 Relevant Charts The report provides multiple charts, including the futures and monthly spread trends of rebar and hot - rolled coils, the basis trends of rebar and hot - rolled coils, the spot regional price difference trends of rebar and hot - rolled coils, the smelting profits of long - process steel mills, the short - process electric furnace profits in the East China region, the blast furnace operating rate of 247 national steel mills, the daily average hot metal output of 247 steel mills, the output, inventory, and apparent consumption of rebar and hot - rolled coils. [11][12][13]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The iron ore market is expected to show a volatile and slightly upward trend. The supply side saw a week - on - week increase in overseas shipments and a decline in arrivals last week, both at high levels in the same period of the past three years, with an expected increase in arrivals this week. The demand side witnessed good resumption of production in steel mills last week, with the molten iron output continuing to rise, and the daily average molten iron reaching over 2.41 million tons. With the approaching National Day holiday, the restocking demand of steel mills supports the firmness of the spot market [1][6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Transaction Data | Contract | Closing Price | Change | Change Rate (%) | Total Trading Volume (Lots) | Total Open Interest (Lots) | Price Unit | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | SHFE Rebar | 3172 | 36 | 1.15 | 8980373 | 3148179 | Yuan/ton | | SHFE Hot - Rolled Coil | 3374 | 4 | 0.12 | 2777138 | 1412324 | Yuan/ton | | DCE Iron Ore | 807.5 | 11.5 | 1.44 | 1698860 | 533529 | Yuan/ton | | DCE Coking Coal | 1232.0 | 44.5 | 3.75 | 8119133 | 943381 | Yuan/ton | | DCE Coke | 1738.5 | 50.0 | 2.96 | 160217 | 52987 | Yuan/ton | [2] 3.2 Market Review - **Demand Side**: Last week, steel mills' resumption of production expanded, and the molten iron output continued to rise. The daily average molten iron reached over 2.41 million tons. The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 83.98%, a week - on - week increase of 0.15 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 5.75 percentage points. The daily average molten iron output was 2.4102 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.47 million tons and a year - on - year increase of 171900 tons. The blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate was 90.35%, a week - on - week increase of 0.17 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 6.29 percentage points. The steel mill profitability rate was 58.87%, a week - on - week decrease of 1.30 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 48.91 percentage points [1][4]. - **Supply Side**: Last week, overseas shipments increased week - on - week, and arrivals declined, both at high levels in the same period of the past three years, with an expected increase in arrivals this week. The total global iron ore shipments were 3573100 tons, a week - on - week increase of 816900 tons. The total shipments from Australia and Brazil were 2977800 tons, a week - on - week increase of 648200 tons. The Australian shipments were 2084600 tons, a week - on - week increase of 262200 tons, and the amount shipped from Australia to China was 1836200 tons, a week - on - week increase of 304900 tons. The Brazilian shipments were 893200 tons, a week - on - week increase of 386000 tons. The total shipments from 19 ports in Australia and Brazil were 2850800 tons, a week - on - week increase of 583800 tons. The Australian shipments were 1981600 tons, a week - on - week increase of 202000 tons, and the amount shipped from Australia to China was 1736700 tons, a week - on - week increase of 244500 tons. The Brazilian shipments were 869300 tons, a week - on - week increase of 381800 tons. In terms of inventory, the imported iron ore inventory at 47 ports across the country was 143816800 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 744400 tons; the daily average port clearance volume was 3510300 tons, an increase of 664000 tons [1][5]. 3.3 Industry News No relevant content provided. 3.4 Related Charts - The report includes multiple charts related to the futures and spot prices, basis, production, inventory, consumption, and other aspects of rebar, hot - rolled coil, and iron ore, such as the futures and spot price trends of rebar and hot - rolled coil, the basis trends of rebar and hot - rolled coil, the steel mill's profit per ton of steel, the black metal smelting and rolling processing industry's profit and loss situation, etc. [9][11]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The market's optimistic sentiment has cooled as the positive impact of the Fed's rate cut has materialized. The fundamentals are expected to show a situation of both supply and demand increasing. Primary lead smelters will resume production in the second half of the month, and some secondary lead smelters will resume production due to profit recovery, leading to an expected increase in supply. At the same time, the pre - holiday stocking demand of downstream enterprises has improved, and purchases have increased. With multiple factors at play, it is expected that lead prices will remain volatile at high levels in the short term, and there may be a slight adjustment after the downstream stocking ends [3][7] Group 3: Summary by Directory Transaction Data - From September 12th to September 19th, the SHFE lead price rose from 17,040 yuan/ton to 17,150 yuan/ton, an increase of 110 yuan/ton; the LME lead price fell from 2,019 dollars/ton to 2,003 dollars/ton, a decrease of 16 dollars/ton; the Shanghai - London ratio increased from 8.44 to 8.56, an increase of 0.12; the SHFE inventory decreased by 9,229 tons to 57,332 tons; the LME inventory decreased by 9,275 tons to 220,300 tons; the social inventory increased by 0.35 million tons to 3.94 million tons; the spot premium increased by 10 yuan/ton to - 115 yuan/ton [4] Market Review - Last week, the main contract of SHFE lead switched to PB2511, and the futures price fluctuated narrowly at a high level, closing at 17,180 yuan/ton, a weekly increase of 0.76%. LME lead fluctuated sideways around 2,000 dollars/ton, closing at 2,003 dollars/ton, a weekly decrease of 0.79%. In the spot market, the supply of goods was limited, and holders held firm on prices. Downstream enterprises mainly made purchases based on rigid demand and preferred to buy directly from smelters [5] Industry News - In the week of September 12th, the average domestic lead concentrate processing fee remained unchanged at 350 yuan/metal ton compared with the previous week, while the average imported lead concentrate processing fee decreased by 10 dollars/dry ton to - 100 dollars/dry ton [8] Related Charts - The report includes multiple charts showing the trends of SHFE and LME lead prices, Shanghai - London ratio, inventory, lead ingot premium, price difference between primary and secondary lead, waste battery prices, secondary lead enterprise profits, lead ore processing fees, electrolytic lead and secondary refined lead production, lead ingot social inventory, and refined lead import profit and loss [10][13][17][20][21]

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Title: Carbonate Lithium Weekly Report [1] - Report Date: September 22, 2025 [3] - Core Theme: Resource Disturbance and Game Intensify, Lithium Price Fluctuates Widely [3] Group 2: Core Views and Strategies - Last Week's Review: Due to the unclear final ruling of Jiangxi mines, the market took a break after a long - term game. With the return of the logic of over - capacity governance, the price slightly increased. However, both bulls and bears lacked confidence in the future of Jiangxi mines on September 30, and the price remained stable during the week [4] - Future Views: This week is the end of the month, and whether Jiangxi lithium mines can continue production will be gradually revealed. The bulls and bears will intensively game under various information, leading to wide - range fluctuations in lithium prices. Fundamentally, although lithium prices have dropped significantly, the supply side is less sensitive to price drops under the protection of upstream salt factory hedging orders, and production remains at a high level. The energy - storage market continues to be hot, with saturated export orders and strong demand for photovoltaic glass. The energy - storage peak season is approaching, indicating good consumption resilience. The power terminal faces slow - down pressure in growth due to a high base. There is a structural contradiction between the subsidy funds tilting upwards and the sinking of terminal consumption, which may not effectively drive significant growth in the consumption peak season, but the consumption increment expectation can still continue. Overall, carbonate lithium may still be affected by the situation of Jiangxi resources, and the actual driving force of fundamentals is limited, with lithium prices likely to fluctuate widely [4][14] Group 3: Market Data - Imported Lithium Ore (1.3% - 2.2%): The price on September 19, 2025, was $136/ton, down $2 or 1.45% from September 12 [5] - Imported Lithium Concentrate (5.5% - 6%): The price on September 19, 2025, was $812/ton, down $9 or 1.10% from September 12 [5] - Domestic Lithium Concentrate (5.5% - 6%): The price on September 19, 2025, was 812 yuan/ton, down 9 yuan or 1.10% from September 12 [5] - Spot Price of Battery - Grade Carbonate Lithium: On September 19, 2025, it was 74,000 yuan/ton, up 2,800 yuan or 3.93% from September 12 [5] - Spot Price of Industrial - Grade Carbonate Lithium: On September 19, 2025, it was 70,900 yuan/ton, up 200 yuan or 0.28% from September 12 [5] - Main Contract Price of Carbonate Lithium: On September 19, 2025, it was 73,800 yuan/ton, up 2,600 yuan or 3.62% from September 12 [5] - Battery - Grade Lithium Hydroxide (Coarse): On September 19, 2025, it was 73,900 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan or 0.14% from September 12 [5] - Battery - Grade Lithium Hydroxide (Fine): On September 19, 2025, it was 78,900 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan or 0.13% from September 12 [5] - Total Carbonate Lithium Inventory: As of September 19, it was 130,446 tons, up 280 tons or 0.22% from the previous period [5][13] - Lithium Iron Phosphate Price: On September 19, 2025, it was 33,900 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan or 0.30% from September 12 [5] - Lithium Cobalt Oxide Price: On September 19, 2025, it was 219,000 yuan/ton, up 4,000 yuan or 1.86% from September 12 [5] - Ternary Material Price (811): On September 19, 2025, it was 145,000 yuan/ton, unchanged from September 12 [5] - Ternary Material Price (622): On September 19, 2025, it was 124,500 yuan/ton, unchanged from September 12 [5] Group 4: Market Analysis and Outlook Last Week's Market Analysis - Supervision and Delivery: As of September 19, 2025, the warehouse - receipt scale of Guangzhou Futures Exchange was 39,484 tons, with the latest matching transaction price of 74,700 yuan/ton. The position scale of the main contract 2511 was 281,200 lots [7] - Supply Side: As of September 19, the weekly carbonate lithium production was 21,125 tons, an increase of 125 tons from the previous period. Recently, new production capacities have been released from salt lakes at home and abroad, and the mica - based lithium extraction in Jiangxi, China, shows signs of recovery. The overall supply side is stable. Although the decline in lithium prices has shifted from boosting to dragging down lithium concentrate, the price decline of imported lithium concentrate is similar to that of mica, and the relative economic advantage of lithium concentrate still exists, which may support the continued popularity of spodumene - based lithium extraction. Without a significant decline in lithium prices, lithium salt supply may remain at a high level in the medium - to - long term [7] - Lithium Salt Import: In July, the carbonate lithium import volume was about 13,800 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 21.8% and a year - on - year decrease of 42.7%. Among them, about 8,584 tons were imported from Chile, a month - on - month decrease of 27.6%, accounting for about 62.2%. 3,950 tons were imported from Argentina, a month - on - month decrease of 22.5%, accounting for about 28.6%. Chile's carbonate lithium export volume in July was about 20,900 tons, a year - on - year and month - on - month increase of 4% and 43% respectively. The scale of carbonate lithium exported to China was about 13,600 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 13% and a month - on - month increase of 33%, accounting for about 65.07% of Chile's total exports [8] - Lithium Ore Import: In July, the total lithium ore import volume was about 750,700 tons, a month - on - month increase of 30.3%. Among them, 427,000 tons were imported from Australia, a month - on - month increase of 67.2%, accounting for about 56.88%; about 64,000 tons were imported from Zimbabwe, a month - on - month decrease of 36.2%, accounting for about 8.5%; about 106,000 tons were imported from South Africa, a month - on - month increase of 8.1%, accounting for 14.1%; and about 116,000 tons were imported from Nigeria, a month - on - month increase of 47.3%. The significant increase in the import volume of spodumene concentrate in July was mainly due to the significant increase in mica ore prices, which made the relative economic benefits of spodumene ore more obvious, leading to a significant increase in the operating rate of spodumene - based lithium extraction capacity and thus boosting the demand for lithium ore [9][10] - Demand - Downstream Cathode Materials: As of September 19, the total lithium iron phosphate production was about 78,226 tons, with an operating rate of 68.84%, a decrease of 0.06 percentage points from the previous period, and the inventory was 50,450 tons, an increase of 900 tons from the previous period. The total ternary material production was about 17,960 tons, with an operating rate of 47%, an increase of 0.27 percentage points from the previous period, and the inventory was 12,825 tons, a decrease of 50 tons from the previous period. In terms of price, as of September 19, the ternary material price was relatively stable, with the 6 - series ternary price remaining at 141,700 yuan/ton and the 8 - series price at 147,400 yuan/ton. The price of lithium iron phosphate for power increased from 34,700 yuan/ton to 34,800 yuan/ton, and the price for energy - storage increased from 34,050 yuan/ton to 34,200 yuan/ton. Overall, there is a slight structural differentiation in the cathode material market, mainly because the energy - storage consumption is hot while the power terminal is relatively stable. Since domestic energy - storage projects are prohibited from using ternary batteries, the price of lithium iron phosphate materials is relatively strong, and the ternary price has remained stable recently. In the future, due to the structural contradiction in the power terminal, the demand intensity of the energy - storage market may still be better than that of the power market, and the price resilience of lithium iron phosphate may be stronger than that of ternary materials [11] - New - Energy Vehicles: From September 1 - 14, the retail volume of the national new - energy passenger vehicle market was 438,000 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 6% compared with the same period in September last year and a month - on - month increase of 10%. The retail penetration rate of the national new - energy passenger vehicle market was 59.8%, and the cumulative retail volume since the beginning of this year was 8.008 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 25%. From high - frequency data, the consumption growth rate of new - energy vehicles has turned positive, and the retail market has marginally recovered. According to the data from the Passenger Car Association, the inventory of the passenger vehicle market at the end of August has dropped to 3.16 million vehicles, a decrease of about 240,000 vehicles from the high of 3.5 million vehicles in April. This shows that both car manufacturers and channels have actively reduced inventory. From the production of new - energy vehicles, since March this year, the production has been almost flat, and the production - sales ratio has continued to rise, indicating that vehicle manufacturers have a clear intention to reduce inventory. On the one hand, it is to relieve the pressure on cash flow from the 60 - day accounts - payable period, and on the other hand, it may be due to a cautious expectation of the future market. The Passenger Car Association predicts that the new subsidy policy is more inclined to high - end models, while the current social purchasing power has shifted downwards. The mismatch between the consumption structure and the subsidy structure may limit the driving force of the subsidy policy on demand [12] - Inventory: As of September 19, the total carbonate lithium inventory was 130,446 tons, a cumulative increase of about 280 tons from the previous period. Among them, the factory inventory was 26,095 tons, a decrease of about 460 tons from the previous period; the market inventory was 64,867 tons, a decrease of about 119 tons from the previous period; and the exchange inventory was 39,484 tons, an increase of 859 tons from the previous week [13] This Week's Outlook - This week is the end of the month, and whether Jiangxi lithium mines can continue production will be gradually revealed. The bulls and bears will intensively game under various information, leading to wide - range fluctuations in lithium prices. Fundamentally, although lithium prices have dropped significantly, the supply side is less sensitive to price drops under the protection of upstream salt factory hedging orders, and production remains at a high level. The energy - storage market continues to be hot, with saturated export orders and strong demand for photovoltaic glass. The energy - storage peak season is approaching, indicating good consumption resilience. The power terminal faces slow - down pressure in growth due to a high base. There is a structural contradiction between the subsidy funds tilting upwards and the sinking of terminal consumption, which may not effectively drive significant growth in the consumption peak season, but the consumption increment expectation can still continue. Overall, carbonate lithium may still be affected by the situation of Jiangxi resources, and the actual driving force of fundamentals is limited, with lithium prices likely to fluctuate widely [14] Group 5: Industry News - Tianqi Lithium Industry: The company's pilot project for an annual production of 50 tons of lithium sulfide has been officially launched. On September 16, Tianqi Lithium Industry stated on the interactive platform that in the research field of key materials for next - generation high - performance lithium batteries, the new electrolytic preparation technology has completed experimental - level verification, and the construction of the pilot line is being actively promoted; the experimental platform for the development of stable - state alloy anodes has been improved, with the ability to develop from "gram - level to kilogram - level to hundred - kilogram - level", and five types of binary lithium - alloy anode materials have entered the verification stage by battery cell customers; a stable production capacity of 300 - mm wide lithium strips has been established, and the preparation of ultra - thin composite strips has been achieved; in terms of sulfide solid - state electrolyte materials, based on the preparation work for the industrialization of lithium sulfide, the company's pilot project for an annual production of 50 tons of lithium sulfide has been officially launched in response to the demand for lithium sulfide from downstream sulfide solid - state electrolytes. The project uses self - developed new technologies and equipment for lithium sulfide preparation, with low - risk and rapid mass - production capabilities [15] - Zijin Mining: The 20,000 - ton - per - year carbonate lithium project in Argentina has been put into production. On September 14, according to Zijin Mining, on September 12 local time in Argentina, the commissioning ceremony of the 20,000 - ton - per - year carbonate lithium project of Lithium Kesi 3Q Lithium Salt Lake, a subsidiary of Zijin Mining, was held in Fiambala City, Catamarca Province. Currently, the pre - work such as the permit approval for the second - phase project is being carried out in an orderly manner, with a planned carbonate lithium production capacity of 40,000 tons/year. After the full operation of both phases, the annual production capacity is expected to reach 60,000 - 80,000 tons [15] - Hubei Liyuan: The production capacity of lithium iron phosphate has been upgraded and put into production. Hubei Liyuan, a subsidiary of Longpan Technology, announced that after more than a month of production - line upgrading and transformation, the A and B lines of the iron phosphate workshop have been fully put into production, with the production capacity steadily increasing and exceeding expectations, and the quality parameters of the offline products meeting the standards. The total investment of this project is 3 billion yuan, including a production base with an annual output of 100,000 tons of lithium iron phosphate and 50,000 tons of iron phosphate, mainly supplying to leading enterprises such as Tesla and CATL [15] Group 6: Related Charts - The report includes multiple charts showing the prices, production, and import volume of carbonate lithium, lithium hydroxide, lithium iron phosphate, ternary materials, and battery production, with data sources from iFinD, Antaike, and Tongguan Jinyuan Futures [17][19][21]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - The Fed's interest rate decision was in line with market expectations, with the dot - plot indicating 2 more potential rate cuts this year and 1 in 2026. Powell emphasized the need to prevent labor market risks and the existence of inflation risks [3]. - The Indonesian Nickel Mining Association slightly raised the reference price for the second - phase laterite nickel ore in September, but the overall impact on the spot market was limited. Driven by the "Golden September and Silver October", ferronickel still had an upward trend, but the increase was weakening. Nickel salts remained popular, with the production of ternary materials increasing monthly, and the consumption of power terminals improving marginally. Pure nickel showed little change [3]. - Domestically, the monetary policy is expected to be loose, which may provide a second - round boost to the macro - environment. Nickel prices have fallen to the lower end of the range and are expected to be corrected technically. However, the fundamentals show no obvious driving force, and the inventory accumulation pressure has increased, indicating weak downstream consumption. It is expected that nickel prices may rise slightly driven by the macro - environment and technical factors [3][11][12]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Review - **Macro - level**: The Fed cut the federal funds rate by 25bp to 4.25% on Wednesday. The new dot - plot implies 2 more rate cuts this year and 1 in 2026. Powell stated that this rate cut was preventive, and the Fed was optimistic about the future economic outlook [5]. - **Nickel Ore**: The FOB price of 1.5% laterite nickel ore in the Philippines and Indonesia remained stable. The Indonesian Nickel Mining Association slightly raised the reference price for the second - phase laterite nickel ore in September. The market is concerned about the RKAB approval in October [6]. - **Pure Nickel**: In August, China's refined nickel production was 3.52 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 20.55%. The profit margins of some processes improved. In July, imports increased significantly, mainly from Russia and Norway, and exports also increased. As of September 18, the spot import profit and loss of refined nickel was - 1272.68 yuan/ton [7]. - **Ferronickel**: The price of high - nickel pig iron rose slightly. In August, China's ferronickel production increased by 11.77% month - on - month, and Indonesia's production increased year - on - year and month - on - month. As of September 15, the inventory of ferronickel decreased. In July, imports increased year - on - year, with significant changes in imports from different countries [7][8]. - **Stainless Steel**: In August, the planned production of 300 - series stainless steel increased. As of September 15, the inventory increased slightly. In September, steel mills' production plans increased, and the de - stocking trend may continue [8]. - **Nickel Sulfate**: The price of battery - grade nickel sulfate rose, and the price of electroplating - grade nickel sulfate remained stable. In August, the production of nickel sulfate decreased year - on - year but increased month - on - month. The production of ternary materials increased. The downstream and upstream inventory days remained stable. The market is expected to maintain a pattern of high - demand but soft - price [9]. - **New Energy Vehicles**: From September 1 - 14, the retail sales of new energy passenger vehicles increased year - on - year and month - on - month, with a penetration rate of 59.8%. The inventory of the passenger vehicle market has decreased, and the production - sales ratio has increased. The subsidy policy may have limited impact on demand [9]. - **Inventory**: The current six - location social inventory of pure nickel increased by 429 tons. SHFE inventory increased by 2314 tons, LME nickel inventory increased by 3360 tons, and the total inventory of the two major exchanges increased by 5674 tons [10]. 2. Industry News - Indonesia announced the reference price for the second - phase nickel ore in September, which increased by about 0.68% compared to the first - phase [13]. - Antam and CATL plan to invest $1.9 billion in building a comprehensive nickel smelter in Indonesia. The HPAL project aims to produce 55,000 tons of MHP per year, and the RKEF smelter aims to produce 88,000 tons of NPI per year [13]. 3. Related Charts - The report provides charts on the price trends of domestic and foreign nickel, spot premium and discount trends, LME 0 - 3 nickel premium and discount, nickel domestic - foreign ratio, nickel futures inventory, nickel ore port inventory, high - nickel iron price, 300 - series stainless steel price, and stainless steel inventory [15][17][19][22].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Last week, the main contract price of Shanghai zinc futures declined. The Fed cut interest rates by 25BP, but Powell's speech was more hawkish than expected. The US retail data exceeded expectations, and the employment market improved, leading to a rebound in the US dollar and pressure on risk assets. In China, economic indicators in August generally declined, increasing the need for timely policy reinforcement [3][11]. - Fundamentally, the processing fees for domestic and imported zinc ores continued to diverge. The processing fee for domestic ores remained stable, while that for imported ores increased rapidly. In September, there were more regular maintenance activities in smelters, and the monthly output of refined zinc was expected to remain above 600,000 tons. On the demand side, the improvement in the prices of black - series products drove the sales of galvanized pipes. The operating rates of some end - user enterprises increased, but there were still differences in orders among different industries. Social inventories decreased slightly due to the decline in zinc prices and pre - holiday stocking demand [4][11]. - Overall, the Fed's interest - rate cut was in line with expectations, and the rebound of the US dollar pressured zinc prices. However, the increase in the operating rates of end - user enterprises, the enthusiasm for downstream price - fixing after the decline in zinc prices, and the pre - holiday stocking plans would limit the downward space of zinc prices [4][12]. 3. Summary by Directory Transaction Data | Contract | 9/12 Price | 9/19 Price | Change | Unit | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | SHFE Zinc | 22,305 | 22,045 | - 260 | Yuan/ton | | LME Zinc | 2,956 | 2,898.5 | - 57.5 | US dollars/ton | | Shanghai - London Ratio | 7.55 | 7.61 | 0.06 | - | | SHFE Inventory | 94,649 | 99,315 | 4,666 | Tons | | LME Inventory | 50,525 | 47,825 | - 2,700 | Tons | | Social Inventory | 154,200 | 158,500 | 4,300 | Tons | | Spot Premium | - 60 | - 50 | 10 | Yuan/ton | [5] Market Review - The main contract of Shanghai zinc futures changed to ZN2511 last week, with the price oscillating downward and breaking below 22,000 Yuan/ton. The Fed's interest - rate cut was in line with expectations, but the rebound of the US dollar led to a withdrawal of long - position funds and a significant decline in zinc prices. The weekly decline was 1.28%. LME zinc first rose and then fell, with a weekly decline of 1.95% [6]. - In the spot market, as the zinc price declined, downstream customers increased price - fixing, and traders also increased shipments. However, in the second half of the week, downstream purchasing weakened, and the spot premium remained at a small discount [7]. - In terms of inventory, as of September 19, LME zinc inventory decreased by 2,700 tons to 47,825 tons, and SHFE inventory increased by 4,666 tons to 99,315 tons. As of September 18, social inventory was 158,500 tons [8]. - In the macro aspect, the Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points, emphasizing the downward risk of employment and expecting two more cuts within the year. The US retail sales in August increased by 0.6% month - on - month, and the number of initial jobless claims decreased. The Bank of England maintained the interest rate at 4% and adjusted the quantitative tightening scale. The Bank of Japan maintained the benchmark interest rate at 0.5% [8][9]. - In China, the industrial added value in August increased by 5.2% year - on - year, and the total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 3.4% year - on - year. The fixed - asset investment from January to August increased by 0.5% year - on - year, and the real - estate investment decreased by 12.9% year - on - year [10]. Industry News - SMM data showed that the average processing fee for domestic zinc concentrates in the week of September 19 remained unchanged at 3,850 Yuan/metal ton, while the average processing fee for imported zinc concentrates increased by 12.5 US dollars/dry ton to 111.25 US dollars/dry ton [13]. - On September 17, Orion Minerals' subsidiary signed an agreement with a subsidiary of Glencore, obtaining a financing of 200 million - 250 million US dollars and a concentrate purchase agreement for the Prieska project. The company plans to start production at the PCZM project by the end of 2026 or early 2027 and aims to increase copper production to over 30,000 tons/year and zinc production to 65,000 tons/year after the two projects reach stable production [13]. Related Charts The report provides multiple charts, including the price trends of Shanghai and LME zinc, the ratio of the two markets, inventory changes, processing fees for zinc ores, and the operating rates of downstream enterprises, which visually present the market situation [15][17][19][20].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - Last week, precious metal prices continued their strong performance, with international gold and silver prices reaching new highs. After the Fed's interest rate cut of 25 basis points, some investment funds took profits, causing precious metal prices to briefly pull back before rebounding strongly on Friday [2][5]. - Fed Chair Powell defined the rate cut as a "risk management" measure, mainly to address the weakening labor market, but he indicated that the Fed is not in a hurry to initiate large - scale easing. The market's mixed interpretation of his remarks led to some capital outflows and a price correction [2][6]. - Although the Fed's rate cut was finalized, Powell's speech was seen as "releasing uncertainty signals", triggering some investors to take profits. However, recent geopolitical tensions in the Russia - Ukraine conflict and the Israel - Palestine situation have enhanced gold's safe - haven appeal. The significant increase in gold ETF holdings and central banks' continuous gold purchases support the gold price, while silver's price has reached new highs due to its industrial properties and catch - up effect. Precious metal prices are expected to continue an upward trend [2][6]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Last Week's Trading Data - **Gold**: SHFE gold closed at 830.56 yuan/gram, down 3.66 yuan (-0.44%); Shanghai Gold T + D closed at 826.00 yuan/gram, down 2.03 yuan (-0.25%); COMEX gold closed at 3719.40 dollars/ounce, up 38.70 dollars (1.05%) [3]. - **Silver**: SHFE silver closed at 9971 yuan/kilogram, down 64 yuan (-0.64%); Shanghai Silver T + D closed at 9940 yuan/kilogram, down 54 yuan (-0.54%); COMEX silver closed at 43.37 dollars/ounce, up 0.69 dollars (1.60%) [3]. 2. Market Analysis and Outlook - The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points, lowering the federal funds rate to 4.00% - 4.25%, the first cut this year and the first in 9 months. The FOMC statement recognized the weakening labor market and rising inflation. The dot - plot shows two more cuts this year and one next year. Powell said employment growth has slowed, and inflation is still slightly high [5]. - Powell's "risk management" statement and the mixed market interpretation led to some capital outflows and price corrections. Geopolitical tensions, increased gold ETF holdings, and central bank purchases support the upward trend of precious metal prices [2][6]. 3. Important Data Information - **US Economic Data**: The US September New York Fed Manufacturing Index dropped 21 points to - 8.7; August retail sales rose 0.6% month - on - month; new home starts in August decreased from 1.429 million to 1.307 million; building permits decreased from 1.362 million to 1.312 million; the MBA 30 - year mortgage rate dropped 10 basis points to 6.39%; initial jobless claims fell to 231,000 [8]. - **Central Bank Policies**: The Bank of Canada cut interest rates by 25 basis points to 2.5%; the Bank of England maintained the interest rate at 4% and reduced the quantitative tightening scale; the Bank of Japan maintained the benchmark interest rate at 0.5% [9]. 4. Related Data Charts - **ETF Holdings**: As of September 19, 2025, the total gold ETF holdings were 994.56 tons, an increase of 19.76 tons from the previous week; the iShare silver holdings were 15,205.14 tons, an increase of 145.40 tons from the previous week [10]. - **CFTC Non - commercial Positions**: For gold futures on September 16, 2025, non - commercial net long positions were 266,410, an increase of 4,670 from the previous week; for silver futures, non - commercial net long positions were 51,538, a decrease of 2,399 from the previous week [11][12].