1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Views of the Report - Last week, the main contract price of Shanghai zinc futures rose first and then fell. The significant reduction of Sino - US tariffs, cooling US inflation, and lower - than - expected retail growth increased the expectation of a Fed rate cut, causing the US dollar to decline, which was favorable for the rebound of the non - ferrous sector. However, Moody's downgraded the US credit rating, reigniting macro - concerns. China's April financial data was mixed, with credit failing to continue improving and its structure weakening, indicating insufficient endogenous economic momentum [3][10]. - Since mid - April, zinc ingot imports have started, with many importers reducing orders. Recently, imported and bonded area supplies have flowed in for replenishment, and the inflow is expected to be more obvious in the second half of the month. In May, refineries had concentrated maintenance in the first half of the month, but many resumed production in the second half. After offsetting the increase and decrease, the monthly supply of refined zinc was basically flat compared with the previous month, and the overall supply - side pressure remained unrelieved [4][10]. - In terms of demand, the performance of special towers remained good, while photovoltaic orders weakened. Enterprises' export orders were expected to improve but needed time. The operating rate of galvanized enterprises increased slightly; the export orders of small hardware improved without obvious rush - to - export behavior, and combined with the resumption of some enterprises, the operating rate of die - casting zinc alloy increased; rubber and electronic - grade orders declined, while feed - grade orders improved. Export enterprises remained cautious, and the operating rate of zinc oxide increased slightly month - on - month [4][10]. - Overall, the optimistic sentiment about tariffs has been digested, and Moody's downgraded the US credit rating, causing the market sentiment to return to caution. With the launch of new domestic smelting projects, the supply continued to increase. Meanwhile, with the supplement of imported zinc and the end of the consumption peak season, the expectation of weak fundamentals due to increasing supply and weak demand remained unchanged. In the short term, the cooling of market risk appetite and insufficient fundamental support are expected to lead to a weak and volatile trend in zinc prices [4][10]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Transaction Data | Contract | May 9th | May 16th | Change | Unit | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | SHFE Zinc | 22190 | 22500 | 310 | Yuan/ton | | LME Zinc | 2655.5 | 2726 | 70.5 | US dollars/ton | | Shanghai - London Ratio | 8.36 | 8.25 | - 0.10 | | | SHFE Inventory | 47102 | 46351 | - 751 | Tons | | LME Inventory | 170325 | 165175 | - 5150 | Tons | | Social Inventory | 8.33 | 8.63 | 0.3 | Ten thousand tons | | Spot Premium | 500 | 250 | - 250 | Yuan/ton | [5] 3.2 Market Review - Last week, the main contract ZN2506 of Shanghai zinc futures rose first and then fell. The larger - than - expected reduction of Sino - US tariffs alleviated concerns about the US economic recession and China's export pressure, and the market sentiment recovered, leading to a general rise in non - ferrous metals. However, the zinc price was under pressure and adjusted after hitting the 40 - day moving average, finally closing at 22500 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 1.4%. It was weak and volatile on Friday night. LME zinc continued to rebound in the first half of the week and fluctuated and consolidated in the second half, finally closing at 2686 US dollars/ton, with a weekly increase of 1.15% [6]. - In the spot market, as of May 16th, the mainstream transaction price of Shanghai 0 zinc was concentrated between 22765 - 22910 yuan/ton, with a premium of 250 - 270 yuan/ton over 2506. SMC had a premium of 260 yuan/ton over 2506, and Kazakh zinc had a premium of 180 yuan/ton over 2506. In the Ningbo market, the mainstream brand 0 zinc was traded at around 22775 - 22900 yuan/ton, with a premium of 265 yuan/ton over the 2506 contract and a premium of 40 yuan/ton over the Shanghai spot. In Guangdong, the mainstream 0 zinc was traded at 22640 - 22700 yuan/ton, with a premium of 305 yuan/ton over the 2507 contract and a discount of 40 yuan/ton to the Shanghai spot, and the Shanghai - Guangdong price difference widened. In the Tianjin market, the mainstream 0 zinc ingots were traded at 22720 - 22940 yuan/ton, and the common 0 zinc was quoted at a premium of 200 - 300 yuan/ton over the 2506 contract, with Tianjin at par with Shanghai. Overall, as the zinc price rebounded, the downstream purchasing sentiment weakened. Meanwhile, with the inflow of imported zinc ingots and improved supply, holders continued to lower the premium quotes to actively sell, but the actual spot transactions were relatively light [7]. - In terms of inventory, as of May 16th, the LME zinc ingot inventory was 165175 tons, a weekly decrease of 5150 tons. The SHFE inventory was 46351 tons, a decrease of 751 tons from the previous week. As of May 15th, the social inventory was 8.63 million tons, an increase of 0.08 million tons from Monday and an increase of 0.3 million tons from the previous week. Among them, the inventory in Guangdong decreased due to less arrival and downstream pick - up after low - price purchases in the early stage; the inventory in Tianjin increased as downstream buyers were cautious due to high prices; the inventory in Shanghai changed little; and the inventory in Zhejiang increased significantly due to the arrival of imported zinc ingots [8]. - In the macro aspect, US inflation cooled down. The April CPI was 2.3% year - on - year, the lowest level since February 2021. The core CPI increased by 2.8% year - on - year, the lowest rate since the inflation outbreak in the spring of 2021. The US April PPI increased by 2.4% year - on - year, lower than expected, and decreased by 0.5% month - on - month, with the largest decline in five years. The US April retail sales increased by 0.1% month - on - month, slightly exceeding expectations but significantly weaker than the previous value, indicating weak consumer spending. Fed Chairman Powell said that the Fed was considering adjusting the core content of the monetary policy guidance framework to cope with major changes in inflation and interest rate prospects after the 2020 pandemic. Fed Vice - Chairman Jefferson said that tariffs and related uncertainties might lead to slower economic growth and rising inflation this year, but the monetary policy was ready to respond as needed. In terms of tariffs, the joint statement of the Sino - US economic and trade high - level talks was released. Both sides agreed to significantly reduce bilateral tariff levels. The US cancelled a total of 91% of the additional tariffs, and China correspondingly cancelled 91% of the counter - tariffs; the US suspended the implementation of 24% of the "reciprocal tariffs", and China also correspondingly suspended the implementation of 24% of the counter - tariffs. China's new RMB loans in April were 280 billion yuan, the previous value was 3.64 trillion yuan, the expected value was 764.4 billion yuan, and the value of the same period last year was 730 billion yuan; the new social financing was 1.16 trillion yuan, the previous value was 5.89 trillion yuan, the expected value was 1.26 trillion yuan, and the value of the same period last year was - 65.8 billion yuan; the stock social financing growth rate was 8.7%, the previous value was 8.4%; M2 increased by 8% year - on - year, the expected value was 7.5%, and the previous value was 7%; M1 increased by 1.5% year - on - year, the expected value was 3%, and the previous value was 1.6% [8][9]. 3.3 Industry News - As of the week of May 16th, the weekly processing fees for domestic and foreign zinc concentrates were reported at 3500 yuan/metal ton and 45 US dollars/dry ton respectively, remaining flat month - on - month for domestic and increasing by 5 US dollars/dry ton for foreign [11]. - Kyzyl - Tashtyg Mine, operated by Longxin Co., Ltd., a subsidiary of Zijin Mining Group in the Tuva Republic of Russia, is facing financial difficulties due to the escalation of international sanctions and limited Sino - Russian financial cooperation and plans to suspend operations. Zijin Mining owns 70% of the mine, which produced approximately 71300 tons of zinc concentrate and approximately 4750 tons of lead concentrate in 2024 [11][12]. - New Century's zinc concentrate production in Q1 2025 was 30000 tons. It performed excellently in Q1 2025, reducing the impact of the rainy season through effective resilience measures, with a 50% increase compared to the weather - affected production in 2024. Zijin Mining's mineral zinc production in Q1 2025 was 88215 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 10% and a month - on - month decrease of 9% [12]. 3.4 Related Charts - The report provides 14 charts, including the price trend charts of Shanghai zinc and LME zinc, the internal and external price ratio, spot premium and discount, LME premium and discount, inventory data of SHFE, LME, social and bonded areas, domestic and foreign zinc ore processing fees, zinc ore import profit and loss, domestic refined zinc production, smelter profit, refined zinc net import, and the operating rate of downstream primary enterprises [14][15][17].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The outcome of the China-US economic and trade agreement exceeded market expectations, with both sides significantly lowering tariff thresholds, leading to a revision of macro expectations. The US inflation pressure further eased, and the market expects the Fed to postpone the interest rate cut to September [3]. - Although the Indonesian Nickel Association has repeatedly lowered the benchmark price of nickel ore, the current shortage situation continues, and the ore price is still rising. The cost pressure of ferronickel is prominent, and some ferronickel plants in Indonesia have stopped quoting for bulk goods. The nickel sulfate market remains sluggish, with no willingness for downstream inventory replenishment, continuing active destocking. Cathode plants may reduce the production plan for May, and there are no bright spots in the new energy sector. Stainless steel inventory has significantly decreased, and the production of electrolytic nickel is at a high level, with a stable fundamentals [3]. - In the later stage, there is no expectation of macro disturbances, and the fundamentals may be marginally revised, with nickel prices fluctuating strongly. There are no important economic data to be released this week, and the tariff risk is gradually cooling down, with no expectation of macro disturbances. With the entry into force of the China-US tariff agreement, the downstream household appliance industry may have plans to rush exports, which may drive a marginal recovery in stainless steel consumption. The significant contraction of steel mills' production in May may drive an accelerated reduction in stainless steel inventory. The new energy sector continues to grow weakly, with no obvious inflection point expected. Overall, the marginal revision of the fundamentals may boost nickel prices [3][10] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Last Week's Market Important Data - SHFE nickel closed at 124,060 yuan/ton on May 16, 2025, down 2,070 yuan/ton from May 12; LME nickel closed at $15,648/ton, up $13/ton; LME inventory was 195,222 tons, down 2,448 tons; SHFE inventory was 23,501 tons, up 279 tons; the premium of Jinchuan nickel was 2,150 yuan/ton, down 200 yuan/ton; the premium of Russian nickel was 250 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton; the average price of high-nickel pig iron was 960 yuan/nickel point, unchanged; stainless steel inventory was 952,000 tons, up 800 tons [4] 2. Market Review Nickel Ore - The FOB price of 1.5% laterite nickel ore in the Philippines remained at $48.5/wet ton, while the domestic FOB price of 1.5% laterite nickel ore in Indonesia rose from $48.6/wet ton to $49.3/wet ton. The shortage of nickel ore in Indonesia continued, with domestic traders' quotes remaining firm and the FOB price further rising. The price of Philippine ore stopped rising, and the current shipping volume remained at a low level [5] Ferronickel - The price of high-nickel pig iron (10%-12%) dropped from 942.5 yuan/nickel point to 941.5 yuan/nickel point. The expected production of nickel pig iron in China in May was about 26,260 metal tons, a month-on-month increase of 3.15%; the total import of domestic ferronickel in March was about 1.0133 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 60%, and the import scale exceeded one million tons for the first time; the expected production of ferronickel in Indonesia in April was 143,300 nickel tons, a year-on-year and month-on-month increase of 17.19%/1.19%, and the ferronickel production was still in the climbing stage. The expected production of 300-series stainless steel in China in May was about 1.78 million tons, an increase of 4 tons compared with the same period last year; as of April 30, the domestic stainless steel inventory was 573,700 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 5,900 tons. Overall, the high price of nickel ore and the continuous weakening of ferronickel prices have highlighted the cost pressure on ferronickel plants. Some Indonesian ferronickel plants have stopped quoting for bulk goods and only maintain long-term agreements. With the implementation of the China-US economic and trade agreement, some domestic small household appliance enterprises have rushed to export, which may drive a correction in stainless steel demand. The significant contraction of domestic stainless steel production in May may lead to a decline in inventory from a high level [6] Nickel Sulfate - The price of battery-grade nickel sulfate rose from 28,115 yuan/ton to 27,995 yuan/ton; the price of electroplating-grade nickel sulfate remained at 30,750 yuan/ton. The expected production of nickel sulfate in terms of metal content in May was about 26,000 tons, a year-on-year and month-on-month decrease of 20.51%/0.39%. The production of ternary materials in May increased again month-on-month, with a total of about 63,745 tons, a year-on-year and month-on-month increase of 1.36%/30.95%. Overall, there is no expected increase in the demand for nickel sulfate, the terminal new energy consumption is weakly stable, and some cathode material plants plan to reduce production, but they are still in the channel of month-on-month expansion. In the short term, it may continue on a stable growth path, but there are no high expectations [7] Macro and Fundamental Aspects - Macroscopically, the China-US economic and trade agreement has been implemented, and both sides have significantly lowered tariff barriers. However, Trump's policy style is changeable, and the tax reduction window is only open for 90 days, so there are still many uncertain factors in the future of trade relations. The US inflation data has weakened, reaching a new low, and the labor market remains resilient. The market expects the Fed to postpone the interest rate cut to September. However, Powell said that the risk of "supply shock" still needs to be vigilant, and the tariff pressure needs further observation. In terms of data, the US core CPI in April was 2.8% year-on-year, in line with expectations and the previous value; the CPI was 2.3% year-on-year, lower than the expected 2.4% and the previous value of 2.4%; the number of initial jobless claims in the US was 229,000, in line with expectations and unchanged from the previous period [7][8] - On the supply side, the domestic production capacity in May was stable, and the production schedule of smelters declined. According to the SMM caliber, the expected production of electrolytic nickel in May was 35,350 tons, a decrease from April; the sample production capacity was 54,099 tons, unchanged from the previous period; the expected operating rate in May was 65.34%, a decrease of about 1.76 percentage points from the previous month. In March, the domestic export scale of electrolytic nickel was about 145,000 tons, a year-on-year increase of 93.53%. As of May 16, the export profit of nickel in China under the SMM caliber was $221.76/ton. Overall, although the production in May declined, it still remained at a high level. The export window was still open, and there was still room to absorb the surplus resources. With the promotion of terminal rush exports, the demand for stainless steel may be pushed up again, thereby supporting the supply of electrolytic nickel [8] - In terms of consumption, from May 1 to 11, the retail sales of the new energy passenger vehicle market nationwide were 294,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 32% compared with the same period in May last year and a month-on-month increase of 29%. The retail penetration rate of the new energy market was 51.3%, and the cumulative retail sales since the beginning of this year were 3.618 million units, a year-on-year increase of 35%. At the beginning of May, the consumption growth rate of new energy vehicles still showed resilience, and the new car replacement policies across the country continued to increase. Haikou issued provincial subsidy incentives, with a maximum single-vehicle subsidy of 5,000 yuan. On the other end of the fast-charging track, the battery-swapping track is also progressing simultaneously. The Beijing Market Supervision and Administration Bureau mentioned in a recently released document that the solicitation of opinions on the "Operating Management Specification for Electric Vehicle Battery-Swapping Stations" has been completed. It requires that the battery-swapping time for electric passenger vehicles should be less than 4 minutes, and the battery-swapping time for electric commercial vehicles should be less than 5 minutes. It also establishes rules and regulations for the management of potential safety hazards and encourages an internal reporting and reward mechanism for hazards [9] - In terms of inventory, the current total social inventory of pure nickel in six places is 44,151 tons, an increase of 63 tons from the previous period; the SHFE inventory is 23,501 tons, a month-on-month increase of 279 tons; the LME nickel inventory is 195,222 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 2,448 tons; the total inventory of the world's two major exchanges is 218,723 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 2,169 tons [9] 3. Industry News - On May 11, 2025, the 90,000-ton nickel-cobalt project in Sulawesi, Indonesia, held a start-up ceremony and the successful installation of the first autoclave. The construction and installation projects of the main body and supporting ancillary facilities of the project, including construction engineering, installation engineering, and supporting ancillary facilities, single-unit commissioning, and cooperation with the owner for no-load and load commissioning, started on January 1, 2025, and are expected to be completed on April 30, 2026. Currently, there are 30 sub-items in the third section of the mining area and 23 sub-items in the mining area section [11] - Overseas resource exploration is accelerating, and many companies are successively deploying. Tembo Nickel Limited plans to start the construction of the Kabanga nickel project in the Kagera region this October, marking an important step in the development of the mining industry in Tanzania [11] - Legacy Minerals has applied for an exploration license for the Nico Young nickel-cobalt project in New South Wales. The project has a resource volume of about 1 million tons of nickel and 100,000 tons of cobalt. The project was previously held by Jervois Global, and now it has no acquisition cost, no debt, or royalty, and benefits from more than A$25 million in pre-development work [11] 4. Related Charts - The report provides 10 charts, including the trends of domestic and international nickel prices, spot premium and discount trends, LME 0-3 nickel premium and discount, domestic and international nickel ratios, nickel futures inventory, nickel ore port inventory, high-nickel iron price, 300-series stainless steel price, and stainless steel inventory [13][15]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The macro - situation shows that the joint statement of the China - US economic and trade high - level talks was released. The US cancelled 91% of the additional tariffs, and China correspondingly cancelled 91% of the counter - tariffs. The US suspended the implementation of 24% of the "reciprocal tariffs", and China also suspended the implementation of 24% of the counter - tariffs. China also suspended or cancelled non - tariff counter - measures against the US, and both sides will establish a mechanism to continue consultations on economic and trade relations [1][4][6] - In terms of fundamentals, last week, the output of rebar was 2.27 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 30,000 tons, the apparent demand was 2.6 million tons, an increase of 460,000 tons, the rebar factory inventory was 1.85 million tons, a decrease of 30,000 tons, the social inventory was 4.35 million tons, a decrease of 300,000 tons, and the total inventory was 6.2 million tons, a decrease of 340,000 tons. The output of hot - rolled coils was 3.12 million tons, a decrease of 80,000 tons, the factory inventory was 780,000 tons, a decrease of 70,000 tons, the social inventory was 2.69 million tons, a decrease of 110,000 tons, the total inventory was 3.48 million tons, a decrease of 180,000 tons, and the apparent demand was 3.3 million tons, an increase of 200,000 tons [1][5] - Overall, the industrial data last week was acceptable. Some blast furnaces started to limit production, the apparent demand recovered seasonally, and the inventory continued to decline. Due to the weak real - estate investment, the demand for rebar had few bright spots. Recently, the improvement in China - US tariff relations eased the export pressure on hot - rolled coils. The improvement in steel supply and demand was limited, and coupled with the weakening of raw materials, steel prices are expected to show a volatile trend. Attention should be paid to the terminal real - estate investment data on Monday [1][5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Transaction Data | Contract | Closing Price | Change | Change Rate (%) | Total Trading Volume (Lots) | Total Open Interest (Lots) | Price Unit | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | SHFE Rebar | 3082 | 60 | 1.99 | 9932652 | 2795790 | Yuan/ton | | SHFE Hot - rolled Coil | 3226 | 69 | 2.19 | 3176582 | 1362524 | Yuan/ton | | DCE Iron Ore | 728.0 | 32.0 | 4.60 | 2364452 | 757976 | Yuan/ton | | DCE Coking Coal | 852.5 | - 25.0 | - 2.85 | 2616452 | 464062 | Yuan/ton | | DCE Coke | 1445.5 | - 1.0 | - 0.07 | 132073 | 51651 | Yuan/ton | [2] 3.2 Market Review - Last week, steel futures fluctuated and rebounded. Driven by the macro - situation, the futures and spot markets rose in resonance. In the spot market, the price of Tangshan steel billets was 2950 (+40) Yuan/ton, the Shanghai rebar was quoted at 3210 (+40) Yuan/ton, and the Shanghai hot - rolled coil was 3290 (+70) Yuan/ton [4] 3.3 Industry News - The joint statement of the China - US economic and trade high - level talks was released, with the tariff adjustments as mentioned above [6][7] - The General Office of the Communist Party of China Central Committee and the General Office of the State Council issued the "Opinions on Continuously Promoting Urban Renewal Actions", which means that China has pressed the "accelerator button" for urban renewal [10] - Since the implementation of the automobile trade - in policy in 2024, the cumulative subsidy application volume has exceeded 10 million. As of May 11, 2025, the subsidy application volume for automobile trade - in reached 3.225 million, of which new - energy vehicles accounted for more than 53% [10] - From January to April, the increment of social financing scale was 16.34 trillion Yuan, 3.61 trillion Yuan more than the same period last year; the new RMB loans were 10.06 trillion Yuan. At the end of April, the money supply M2 increased by 8% year - on - year, 1 percentage point higher than last month [10] 3.4 Relevant Charts - The report provides 20 charts, including the trends of rebar and hot - rolled coil futures and their spreads, basis, spot regional price differences, steel mill profits, blast furnace operating rates, steel production, inventory, and apparent consumption [9][11][13]

Report Title - Lead Weekly Report, dated May 19, 2025 [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - Last week, the main contract price of Shanghai lead futures fluctuated around 17,000 yuan/ton. Macroscopically, the unexpected reduction of Sino-US tariffs and the cooling inflation and economic slowdown in the US increased the expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut, improving market risk appetite, and the lead price followed the non-ferrous sector to run strongly. Fundamentally, primary lead smelters had both production cuts and restarts, with supply mainly recovering. In the off-season of consumption, the supply of waste batteries did not improve significantly, the procurement cost of recyclers increased, and they were reluctant to sell at low prices. Some previously减产 secondary lead smelters in Guangxi and Jiangsu restarted production, but under the background of raw material shortage and poor profits, smelters mostly operated at low loads, and the supply did not recover significantly. However, after the lead price rebounded, the profits of enterprises were repaired, and the expectation of a further expansion of production cuts weakened. On the consumption side, lead-acid batteries remained in the seasonal off-season, mostly digesting inventory and mainly making rigid purchases. Overall, Moody's downgraded the US credit rating, and the macro sentiment weakened marginally. Currently, the cost side supports the lead price, but consumption remains in the off-season. The rebound of the lead price repairs the profits of secondary lead smelters, the expectation of an expansion of production cuts weakens, and the pressure of inventory accumulation increases, suppressing the lead price trend. In the short term, long and short factors are intertwined, the lead price trend is stalemated, and it maintains a high-level consolidation operation [3][6][7] Summary by Directory 1. Transaction Data - From May 9th to May 16th, the SHFE lead price rose from 16,805 yuan/ton to 16,870 yuan/ton, an increase of 65 yuan/ton; the LME lead price rose from 1,985.5 US dollars/ton to 2,006 US dollars/ton, an increase of 20.5 US dollars/ton; the Shanghai-London ratio decreased from 8.46 to 8.41, a decrease of 0.05; the SHFE inventory increased from 49,504 tons to 55,472 tons, an increase of 5,968 tons; the LME inventory decreased from 253,425 tons to 248,850 tons, a decrease of 4,575 tons; the social inventory increased from 47,500 tons to 56,000 tons, an increase of 8,500 tons; the spot premium decreased from -90 yuan/ton to -130 yuan/ton, a decrease of 40 yuan/ton [4] 2. Market Review - Last week, the main PB2506 contract price of Shanghai lead futures fluctuated horizontally around 17,000 yuan/ton, and finally closed at 16,870 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 0.39%. On Friday night, it fluctuated narrowly. The concern about the US economic recession eased, the pressure on risk assets weakened, and LME lead continued to rebound, but the rebound pace slowed down near 2,000 US dollars/ton, and finally closed at 2,006 US dollars/ton, with a weekly increase of 1.03%. In the spot market, as of May 16th, the price of Chihong lead in the Shanghai market was 16,935 - 16,960 yuan/ton, with a premium of 20 - 30 yuan/ton over the SHFE 2506 contract; the price of Honglu lead was 16,900 - 16,930 yuan/ton, with a discount of 20 - 0 yuan/ton to the 2506 contract; the price of Jiangtong lead in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions was reported at 16,900 - 16,930 yuan/ton, with a discount of 20 - 0 yuan/ton to the 2506 contract. Sellers sold goods according to the market, a few enterprises were reluctant to sell at low prices, and the quotation changed from a discount to a premium. The ex-factory price of electrolytic lead smelters' factory-picked goods remained at a discount of 50 yuan/ton to a premium of 100 yuan/ton over the SMM 1 lead average price, and the secondary refined lead was quoted at a discount of 120 - 0 yuan/ton to the SMM 1 lead average price for ex-factory. Downstream enterprises mainly made rigid purchases and preferred large-discount goods with low prices [5] 3. Industry News - As of the week of May 16th, the weekly processing fees for domestic and foreign zinc concentrates were reported at 650 yuan/metal ton and -30 US dollars/dry ton respectively, remaining flat compared to the previous week [8] 4. Related Charts - The report provides 14 charts, including SHFE and LME lead prices, Shanghai-London ratio, SHFE and LME inventory situations, 1 lead premium and discount situations, LME lead premium and discount situations, primary lead and secondary refined lead price differences, waste battery prices, secondary lead enterprise profit situations, lead ore processing fees, primary lead production, secondary refined lead production, lead ingot social inventory, and refined lead import profit and loss situations [10][11][15][16][18][21][22][24][25]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Views of the Report - The Sino-US talks achieved substantial progress, and the market risk appetite significantly rebounded. However, the weak US economic data released over the weekend increased concerns about demand. The supply of electrolytic aluminum is basically stable, and the downstream consumption is slightly better than expected, with inventory still being depleted. But as the seasonal off - peak season approaches, the sustainability of inventory depletion is questionable. After the continuous rebound of aluminum prices, more positive stimuli are needed for further increase. It is expected that the upward space of aluminum prices is limited [2][7] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Transaction Data - From May 9th to May 16th, 2025, the price of LME Aluminum 3 - month increased from 2418 to 2484.5 yuan/ton, SHFE Aluminum Continuous Three increased from 19445 to 20020 dollars/ton, and the spot premium of LME changed from - 9.4 to 5.79 dollars/ton. LME aluminum inventory decreased by 8100 tons, and SHFE aluminum warehouse receipt inventory decreased by 2193 tons. The social inventory of aluminum ingots decreased by 3.9 tons. The theoretical average cost of electrolytic aluminum increased by 67.2 yuan/ton, and the weekly average profit increased by 399.8 yuan/ton [3] 3.2 Market Review - The weekly average price of Yangtze River spot was 19948 yuan/ton, an increase of 202 yuan/ton compared with last week; the weekly average price of Nanchu spot was 19904 yuan/ton, an increase of 168 yuan/ton compared with last week [4] 3.3 Market Outlook - The Sino - US talks had positive results, but the weak US economic data raised demand concerns. The supply of electrolytic aluminum is stable, and the downstream consumption has some resilience. The inventory is being depleted, but the sustainability is in doubt. After the full trading of macro - positive factors, the upward space of aluminum prices is limited [7] 3.4 Industry News - UAE's largest aluminum recycling plant construction is 50% completed, 42 days ahead of schedule, and is expected to produce the first batch of smelted metal in the first half of 2026. India proposed to impose retaliatory tariffs on the US due to US steel and aluminum tariffs. In April 2025, China's exports of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products were 51.8 tons, and the cumulative exports from January to April decreased by 5.7% compared with the same period last year [8] 3.5 Related Charts - The report provides charts on the price trends of LME Aluminum 3 - SHFE Aluminum Continuous Three, the ratio of Shanghai - London aluminum, LME aluminum premium, Shanghai aluminum inter - period spread, Shanghai - Guangdong price difference, domestic and imported alumina prices, electrolytic aluminum cost - profit, and the seasonal changes of electrolytic aluminum and aluminum rod inventories [9][11][14]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The iron ore market is expected to be mainly in a state of oscillatory adjustment due to the weakening fundamentals. The supply side shows that last week's shipping and arrival volumes both declined month - on - month, with shipping volume at a medium level in recent years and arrival volume at a relatively high level in recent years, indicating a relatively loose supply. On the demand side, the number of steel mill overhauls increased last week, combined with the weakening downstream demand, leading to a decline in molten iron production from its peak [1][5]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Transaction Data - SHFE rebar had a closing price of 3082 yuan/ton, a rise of 60 yuan, a rise rate of 1.99%, a total trading volume of 9932652 lots, and a total open interest of 2795790 lots [2]. - SHFE hot - rolled coil had a closing price of 3226 yuan/ton, a rise of 69 yuan, a rise rate of 2.19%, a total trading volume of 3176582 lots, and a total open interest of 1362524 lots [2]. - DCE iron ore had a closing price of 728.0 yuan/ton, a rise of 32.0 yuan, a rise rate of 4.60%, a total trading volume of 2364452 lots, and a total open interest of 757976 lots [2]. - DCE coking coal had a closing price of 852.5 yuan/ton, a fall of 25.0 yuan, a fall rate of - 2.85%, a total trading volume of 2616452 lots, and a total open interest of 464062 lots [2]. - DCE coke had a closing price of 1445.5 yuan/ton, a fall of 1.0 yuan, a fall rate of - 0.07%, a total trading volume of 132073 lots, and a total open interest of 51651 lots [2]. Market Review - Last week, iron ore futures fluctuated and rose, mainly driven by the macro - environment, but were dragged down by the weakening molten iron production, resulting in a fall after reaching a high. In the spot market, the price of Rizhao Port PB powder was 765 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 11 yuan/ton, and the price of Super Special powder was 638 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 20 yuan/ton. The price difference between high - and low - grade PB powder and Super Special powder was 127 yuan/ton [4]. - On the demand side, the number of steel mill overhauls increased last week, combined with the weakening downstream demand, leading to a decline in molten iron production from its peak. The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 84.15%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.47 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 2.65 percentage points; the blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate was 91.76%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.33 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 3.19 percentage points; the steel mill profitability rate was 59.31%, a month - on - month increase of 0.44 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 7.36 percentage points; the daily average molten iron production was 244.77 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.87 tons and a year - on - year increase of 7.88 tons [4]. - On the supply side, last week's shipping and arrival volumes both declined month - on - month, with shipping volume at a medium level in recent years and arrival volume at a relatively high level in recent years, indicating a relatively loose supply. The total shipping volume of iron ore from Australia and Brazil was 2422.5 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 117.9 tons. The Australian shipping volume was 1797.2 tons, a month - on - month increase of 28.0 tons, and the volume shipped from Australia to China was 1593.8 tons, a month - on - month increase of 75.4 tons. The Brazilian shipping volume was 625.2 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 146.0 tons. The total global iron ore shipping volume was 3029.0 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 21.5 tons. In terms of inventory, the inventory of imported iron ore at 47 ports across the country was 14746.99 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 17.72 tons; the daily average port clearance volume was 339.59 tons, an increase of 11.08 tons [5]. Industry News - The joint statement of the China - US high - level economic and trade talks was released. Both sides agreed to significantly reduce bilateral tariff levels. The US cancelled 91% of the additional tariffs, and China correspondingly cancelled 91% of the counter - tariffs. The US suspended the implementation of 24% of the "reciprocal tariffs", and China also correspondingly suspended the implementation of 24% of the counter - tariffs. China also correspondingly suspended or cancelled non - tariff counter - measures against the US. Both sides will establish a mechanism to continue consultations on economic and trade relations [6][7]. - According to the data of the Ministry of Commerce, since the implementation of the automobile trade - in policy in 2024, the cumulative subsidy application volume has exceeded 10 million. As of May 11, 2025, the subsidy application volume for automobile trade - in reached 3.225 million, of which new - energy vehicles accounted for more than 53% [10]. - From January to April, the increment of social financing scale was 16.34 trillion yuan, 3.61 trillion yuan more than the same period last year; the new RMB loans were 10.06 trillion yuan. At the end of April, the money supply M2 increased by 8% year - on - year, 1 percentage point higher than last month [10]. Relevant Charts - The report includes multiple charts showing the trends of rebar and hot - rolled coil futures and spot prices, basis trends, steel mill profits, black metal smelting and rolling industry profitability, iron ore supply and demand indicators (such as shipping volume, arrival volume, inventory, etc.), and steel production and consumption indicators (such as daily and monthly production, apparent consumption, etc.) [9][11][13]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Fundamentally, the cost side has stopped falling and stabilized, with some third - party quotes rising. The pre - scheduled production of cathode material factories has been reduced, downstream sentiment is cautious, market transactions are sluggish, and there is no obvious improvement on the demand side. The upstream resumption of production is slow, and production cuts are increasing, resulting in a weak fundamental situation [4]. - In terms of cost, during the reporting period, the price of spodumene rebounded, while the mica price continued to decline [4]. - On the trading floor, after the signing of the Sino - US economic and trade agreement, there was a short - term rally due to short - sellers leaving the market, but the rebound was limited, and the trading volume increased significantly. The short - selling trend continued, and the price hit a new low on Friday [4]. - In the later stage, there is no expectation of fundamental improvement, the short - selling sentiment is strong, and the price may break through the previous low. Although the lithium ore price has stabilized and miners are willing to support the price, the lithium ore resources are not scarce, and the bargaining power of the mining end is limited. The supply - side resumption of production is slow, and production cuts are limited. The salt lake is still in the production - increasing stage, and there is an inventory expectation at the import end. The demand side has weak growth, and the lithium price may remain weak [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Data - The price of imported lithium raw ore (1.3% - 2.2%) remained unchanged at 115 dollars/ton; the price of imported lithium concentrate (5.5% - 6%) increased by 1.13% to 715 dollars/ton; the price of domestic lithium concentrate (5.5% - 6%) decreased by 1.70% to 695 dollars/ton [6]. - The battery - grade lithium carbonate spot price decreased by 1.59% to 6.30 million yuan/ton; the industrial - grade lithium carbonate spot price dropped to 0, a 100% decrease [6]. - The total lithium carbonate inventory increased by 0.34% to 92,073 tons [6]. Market Analysis and Outlook Last Week's Market Analysis - As of May 16, 2025, the warehouse receipt scale of the Guangzhou Futures Exchange was 36,624 tons, and the latest matching transaction price was 62,580 yuan/ton. The position of the main contract 2507 was 328,700 lots [8]. - On the supply side, as of May 16, the weekly output of lithium carbonate was 15,843 tons, a decrease of 205 tons from the previous period. Although smelters had production cuts, the salt lake was in the production - increasing stage, so the supply - side contraction was limited [8]. - In March, the import volume of lithium carbonate was about 18,100 tons, a 47% month - on - month increase and a 4.8% year - on - year decrease. The import from Chile and Argentina changed, and the increase in imports from Chile in March may push up the domestic supply in May [8]. - In March, the import of lithium ore was about 534,500 tons, a 5.8% month - on - month decrease. The imports from different countries had different changes, and overall, lithium ore resources were not scarce [9][10]. - In terms of demand, for cathode materials, the production and prices of some products decreased, and the overall cathode material market was in an oversupply situation, with most prices still falling. Some cathode material factories reduced their production plans in May, and there was no obvious increase in lithium demand expected [11]. - In the new energy vehicle market, from May 1 - 11, the retail sales of new energy passenger vehicles were 294,000, a 32% year - on - year increase and a 29% month - on - month increase. The new energy market retail penetration rate was 51.3%. New energy vehicle consumption still had resilience, and new policies were introduced [12]. - In terms of inventory, as of May 16, the total lithium carbonate inventory was 92,073 tons, an increase of 311 tons from the previous period. The factory inventory increased, while the market inventory decreased, showing a differentiated trend [13]. This Week's Outlook - The short - selling sentiment continues, and the lithium price may hit a new low. There is no expectation of fundamental improvement, the short - selling sentiment on the trading floor is strong, and the price may break through. Although the lithium ore price has stabilized, the supply - side resumption of production is slow, and the demand side has weak growth [14]. Industry News - During the "May Day" holiday in 2025, the national consumer market was prosperous. The subsidy application volume for automobile trade - ins exceeded 3 million, and the sales of various consumer goods increased [15]. - On May 7, the Guangdong Provincial People's Government Office issued a notice to encourage Guangzhou and Shenzhen to further relax vehicle purchase restrictions [15]. Relevant Charts - The report provides multiple charts showing the price trends, production, supply structure, and import volume of lithium carbonate, lithium hydroxide, cathode materials, and related battery products from 2022 - 2025 [17][19][22][28]

Report Overview - Report Date: May 19, 2025 [1] - Report Title: Copper Weekly Report 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - Last week, copper prices first rose and then fell. The initial rise was due to the Sino-US trade truce boosting the market, with both sides suspending and canceling most tariff measures. Subsequently, the market digested the optimistic sentiment, and there was uncertainty about the tariff policy after 90 days. The Fed maintained a hawkish stance, leading to concerns about US stagflation risks and global supply chain disruptions affecting both developed and developing economies, causing downward pressure on exports and economic slowdown. Domestically, in April, the social financing structure favored government bonds, but the negative scissors gap widened, and the central bank's financial incremental policies released positive sentiment. Fundamentally, the spot TC remained at a negative value of -$40, global inventories rebounded from a low level, the Yangshan copper warehouse receipt premium was high, and the near-month B structure of the futures market narrowed [2][7]. - Overall, the market has digested the positive sentiment of the Sino-US truce and is worried that tariff hikes and trade policy uncertainties will continue to disrupt the global supply chain, dragging down the global economic growth outlook. Domestically, the central bank's reserve requirement ratio cut and interest rate cut have been implemented, and social financing in April maintained stable growth. Fundamentally, the production capacity of major overseas mines is sustainable, the tight balance cycle of refined copper in China is shifting to marginal relaxation, and social inventories are rebounding from a low level. It is expected that copper prices will maintain a high-level volatile downward trend. Attention should be paid to the evolution of the global trade pattern [2][10]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Data - **Price Changes**: From May 9 to May 16, LME copper rose by $1.00 to $9440.00 per ton, a 0.01% increase; COMEX copper fell by 6.25 cents to 459.15 cents per pound, a 1.34% decrease; SHFE copper rose by 690 yuan to 78140 yuan per ton, an 0.89% increase; international copper rose by 600 yuan to 69350 yuan per ton, an 0.87% increase. The Shanghai-London ratio rose from 8.21 to 8.28. The LME spot premium dropped by $17.74 to $31.45 per ton, a 36.06% decrease, and the Shanghai spot premium increased by 365 yuan to 445 yuan per ton [3]. - **Inventory Changes**: As of May 16, the total inventory of LME, COMEX, SHFE, and Shanghai bonded areas decreased to 528,663 tons, with a net increase of 5451 tons or 1.04% compared to May 9. Specifically, LME copper inventory decreased by 12,400 tons to 179,375 tons, a 6.47% decrease; COMEX inventory increased by 9414 short tons to 169,664 short tons, a 5.87% increase; SHFE inventory increased by 27,437 tons to 108,124 tons, a 34.00% increase; Shanghai bonded area inventory decreased by 19,000 tons to 71,500 tons, a 20.99% decrease [6]. 3.2 Market Analysis and Outlook - **Macro - aspect**: The Sino-US economic and trade talks issued a joint statement to relieve pressure on the global economy. Both countries maintained a relatively low tariff of 10%, and the US suspended the additional 24% tariff on China for 90 days. China also suspended or canceled non - tariff counter - measures against the US. The UN report shows that although the global tariff war is easing, tariff hikes and trade policy uncertainties continue to disrupt the supply chain, pushing up production costs and slowing down corporate investment. It is expected that the global economic growth rate will slow down to 2.4% in 2025. Domestically, China's social financing increment in April was 1.16 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 1.22 trillion yuan. The social financing scale stock reached 424 trillion yuan at the end of April, a year - on - year increase of 8.7%, indicating an improvement in the economic credit structure [8]. - **Supply - demand aspect**: This week, the spot TC remained at -$43 per ton. The Antamina copper mine in Peru had a temporary shutdown due to a mine accident, and the President of Panama refused to sign a new agreement with First Quantum for the Cobre Panama project, leading to a long - term tight supply at the global mine end. In terms of refined copper, the domestic refined copper capacity utilization rate was generally high. In mid - May, imported supplies began to decline, and the blockage at some African ports was resolved. In terms of demand, power grid investment projects started one after another, the operating rate of cable enterprises in April rebounded to 81.3%, driving the operating rate of refined copper rod production back to 75%. The domestic social inventory rebounded to 130,000 tons, and the near - month B structure in the domestic market narrowed after the inventory bottomed out and rebounded [9]. 3.3 Industry News - **Production Reports**: Glencore's copper production in the first quarter of 2025 was 168,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 30%. MMG's copper production (electrolytic copper + copper concentrate) in the first quarter was 118,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 76%. MMG raised its 2025 production guidance to 466,000 - 522,000 tons [11][12]. - **Project News**: First Quantum's closed Panama copper mine, if still in operation, would contribute over $1.7 billion to Panama's economy. However, the President of Panama refused to provide a new mining contract [13]. - **Processing Fee**: According to Mysteel research, the processing fee for 8mm T1 cable wire rods in East China last week rose to 750 - 950 yuan per ton, a slight increase of 200 yuan per ton. It is expected that the operating rate of refined copper rod enterprises in China will continue to recover in late May [14]. 3.4 Related Charts - The report provides 18 charts, including the price trends of SHFE copper and LME copper, LME copper inventory, global visible inventory, Shanghai Exchange and bonded area inventory, etc., to visually display the market situation of copper [15][18][23].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - Last week, the CBOT July soybean contract fell 1.25 to close at 1051 cents per bushel, a decline of 0.12%; the September bean meal contract remained flat; the South China bean meal spot price dropped 80 to 3060 yuan per ton, a decline of 2.55%; the September rapeseed meal contract fell 38 to 2513 yuan per ton, a decline of 1.49%; and the Guangxi rapeseed meal spot price dropped 60 to 2370 yuan per ton, a decline of 2.47% [4][7]. - U.S. soybeans first rose and then fell. The May USDA report was bullish, and the extension of the clean fuel tax credit boosted prices. However, the expected U.S. biodiesel mandatory blending target was much lower than expected, and the sharp decline in U.S. soybean oil drove soybeans down. The U.S. soybean sowing maintained a relatively fast pace, and the weather conditions were good. The oil mill operating rate rebounded, the expected supply of bean meal increased, the spot price was under pressure to fall, and the basis declined. In the weak reality pattern, the Dalian bean meal fluctuated weakly [4][7]. - The weather in the U.S. soybean - producing areas is good, and the sowing season may proceed smoothly. Recently, the U.S. biodiesel policy has high uncertainty, which intensifies the market volatility. There is no theme to drive the market, and U.S. soybeans are likely to fluctuate. In China, the oil mill operating rate has rebounded, the supply is gradually recovering, the inventories of oil mills and feed enterprises have both increased, the trading demand declined last week, and the spot price is still under pressure. Since the rapeseed meal inventory is still available, as the bean meal spot price falls, the substitution demand increases, and rapeseed meal is still under short - term pressure. Overall, both bean meal and rapeseed meal may fluctuate weakly [4][12]. Summary by Directory Market Data - The CBOT July soybean contract fell 1.25 to 1051 cents per bushel, a decline of 0.12%. The CNF import price of Brazilian soybeans increased by 1 to 434 dollars per ton, a rise of 0.23%, and that of U.S. Gulf soybeans increased by 4 to 457 dollars per ton, a rise of 0.88%. The Brazilian soybean crushing profit on the disk increased by 8.08 to 83.74 yuan per ton. The DCE bean meal contract remained flat at 2899 yuan per ton. The CZCE rapeseed meal contract fell 38 to 2513 yuan per ton, a decline of 1.49%. The bean - rapeseed meal price difference increased by 38 to 386 yuan per ton. The East China spot price dropped 200 to 3000 yuan per ton, a decline of 6.25%, and the South China spot price dropped 80 to 3060 yuan per ton, a decline of 2.55%. The South China spot - futures price difference dropped 80 to 161 yuan per ton [5]. Market Analysis and Outlook - The May USDA report showed that in the 2024/2025 season, U.S. soybean export demand was raised by 25 million bushels to 1.85 billion bushels, and the ending inventory dropped to 350 million bushels. For the 2025/2026 new - season U.S. soybean balance sheet, the yield per acre was 52.5 bushels, the output was 4.34 billion bushels, which was in line with expectations. In terms of demand, the crushing demand increased to 2.49 billion bushels, the export demand decreased to 1.815 billion bushels, and the ending inventory dropped to 295 million bushels. The report was generally bullish [8]. - As of the week of May 11, 2025, the U.S. soybean planting progress was 48%, higher than the market expectation of 47%, the previous week's 30%, and last year's 34%, with a five - year average of 37%. The emergence rate was 17%, compared with 7% in the previous week, 15% last year, and a five - year average of 11%. As of the week of May 6, about 15% of the U.S. soybean planting areas were affected by drought, the same as the previous week and higher than last year's 11%. The weather forecast shows that the northern U.S. soybean - producing areas may have more precipitation, which may slow down the sowing progress, but the weather conditions in other areas are good, which is conducive to maintaining a relatively fast sowing pace [8]. - As of the week of May 8, 2025, the net export sales of U.S. soybeans in the current market season increased by 282,000 tons to 377,000 tons. The cumulative export sales volume of U.S. soybeans in the 2024/2025 season was 48 million tons, with a sales progress of 95.3%, higher than last year's 92.1%. China did not purchase U.S. soybeans that week, and the cumulative purchase volume in the current season was 22.48 million tons [9]. - The NOPA crushing report showed that the U.S. soybean oil inventory in April 2025 was 1.527 billion pounds, higher than the market expectation of 1.412 billion pounds and the March 2025 level of 1.498 billion pounds. The U.S. soybean crushing volume in April 2025 was 190.226 million bushels, higher than the market expectation of 184.642 million bushels and lower than the March 2025 level of 194.551 million bushels [9]. - As of the week of May 9, 2025, the U.S. soybean crushing profit was 1.78 dollars per bushel, up from 1.75 dollars per bushel the previous week. The truck quotation of crude soybean oil in Illinois was 47.98 cents per pound, down from 49.03 cents per pound the previous week. The price of 48% protein bean meal in Illinois soybean processing plants was 290.38 dollars per short - ton, up from 287.08 dollars per short - ton the previous week. The average price of No. 1 yellow soybeans was 10.63 dollars per bushel, down from 10.71 dollars per bushel the previous week [10]. - Conab data showed that as of the week of May 10, 2025, the harvesting progress of Brazilian soybeans in the 2024/2025 season was 98.5%, higher than the previous week's 97.7%, last year's 95.6%, and the five - year average of 97.6%. The Brazilian National Association of Grain Exporters (Anec) estimated that Brazil's soybean exports in May were expected to reach 14.27 million tons, higher than last year's 13.47 million tons [10]. - The Buenos Aires Exchange reported that the Argentine soybean harvesting progress was 64.9%, up from 44.9% the previous week, and the harvesting work accelerated. In the next 15 days, the weather in the producing areas will be relatively dry, which is conducive to the progress of harvesting [10]. - As of the week of May 9, 2025, the soybean inventory of major oil mills was 5.3491 million tons, an increase of 602,700 tons from the previous week and 1.1634 million tons from the same period last year. The bean meal inventory was 101,200 tons, an increase of 19,100 tons from the previous week and a decrease of 458,000 tons from the same period last year. The unexecuted contracts were 4.7368 million tons, an increase of 436,000 tons from the previous week and 221,900 tons from the same period last year. The national port soybean inventory was 6.234 million tons, an increase of 702,000 tons from the previous week and 620,200 tons from the same period last year [11]. - As of the week of May 16, 2025, the daily average trading volume of national bean meal was 78,100 tons, including 40,600 tons of spot trading and 37,500 tons of forward trading. The previous week's daily average total trading volume was 264,600 tons. The daily average pick - up volume of bean meal was 157,000 tons, up from 151,000 tons the previous week. The crushing volume of major oil mills was 1.9055 million tons, up from 1.846 million tons the previous week. The inventory days of bean meal in feed enterprises were 5.14 days, up from 4.45 days the previous week [11]. Industry News - Brazil's foreign trade secretariat (Secex) data showed that Brazil exported 4,766,710.61 tons of soybeans in the first two weeks of May, with a daily average export volume of 794,451.77 tons, a 24% increase compared with the daily average export volume of 639,843.92 tons in May last year. The total export volume in May last year was 13,436,722.31 tons [13]. - The Mato Grosso Institute of Agricultural Economics (IMEA) reported that the soybean crushing profit in Mato Grosso from May 5 - 9 was 612.80 reais per ton, down from 623.09 reais per ton the previous week. The bean meal price in that week was 1690.10 reais per ton, and the soybean oil price was 5735.94 reais per ton [13]. - The U.S. House of Representatives Tax Committee proposed to extend the 45Z clean fuel tax credit policy to December 31, 2031, and cancel the impact of indirect land - use change (ILUC) on tax - credit assessment, which may significantly reduce the compliance costs of biofuel producers. Biodiesel producers using soybean oil as raw materials are expected to be the main beneficiaries [13]. - If the U.S. and China fail to reach a new trade agreement, U.S. soybean exports may decline by 20%, and the price will plummet. The U.S. soybean export volume may drop from the initial 1.865 billion bushels to 1.5 billion bushels, and the farm price may drop to 9.10 dollars per bushel in the 2025/2026 season, compared with the USDA's forecast of 10.25 dollars per bushel [14]. - CONAB's May forecast data showed that the expected output of Brazilian soybeans in the 2024/2025 season was 168.3418 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 20.6205 million tons (14%) and a month - on - month increase of 472,000 tons (0.3%). The expected sowing area was 47.6127 million hectares, a year - on - year increase of 1.4631 million hectares (3.2%) and a month - on - month increase of 97,000 hectares (0.2%). The expected yield per hectare was 3.54 tons, a year - on - year increase of 334.7 kilograms (10.5%) and a month - on - month increase of 2.7 kilograms (0.1%) [15]. - A commodity research report showed that Australia's rapeseed output in the 2025/2026 season was expected to be 6.2 million tons, in line with the USDA's monthly supply - and - demand report. The forecast range was between 5.7 - 6.3 million tons. Most areas in Australia were dry in the past two weeks. In the next 15 days, the key rapeseed - producing areas in New South Wales are expected to receive above - average rainfall, while other areas in Australia will remain dry until the end of the month. The seasonal weather model shows that Australia's rainfall and temperature in June will be normal, which may relieve the current drought and help the early growth of crops [16]. Related Charts - The report provides multiple charts, including the trend of U.S. soybean continuous contracts, Brazilian soybean CNF arrival price, RMB spot exchange rate, regional crushing profit, bean meal main contract trend, spot - futures price difference of bean meal, management fund CBOT net position, regional bean meal spot price, bean meal M 9 - 1 inter - month price difference, U.S. soybean - producing area precipitation and temperature, Argentine soybean harvesting progress, U.S. soybean cumulative export sales volume to the world, U.S. soybean weekly net sales volume, U.S. soybean cumulative sales volume to China, U.S. soybean weekly export volume, U.S. oil mill crushing profit, bean meal weekly average pick - up volume, bean meal weekly average trading volume, port soybean inventory, oil mill soybean inventory, oil mill weekly crushing volume, oil mill crushing operating rate, oil mill bean meal inventory, and feed enterprise bean meal inventory days [17][18][19][22][24][26][28][30][32][34][38][40][42][43][45][47][49][51][52][53].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The rebound of industrial silicon last week was hindered as the market digested the positive sentiment of the China-US truce, and the trading focus returned to the weak supply-demand fundamentals of the commodity. The supply side is operating weakly, with the operating rate in Xinjiang dropping to 50% and that in the Southwest below 30%, and production in Inner Mongolia and Gansu also decreasing. On the demand side, polysilicon discussed production cuts again last week, with the production schedule in May possibly less than 100,000 tons. The downstream price pressure in the silicon wafer market is severe, and enterprises have a strong willingness to cut production. The demand in the photovoltaic cell market is sluggish, and both specialized and integrated manufacturers are considering production cuts to reduce inventory. The peak installation period has passed, and the photovoltaic installation in the second quarter is expected to slow down significantly. After a brief boost from macro sentiment, industrial silicon has returned to a weak fundamental pattern, with social inventory rising slightly to 599,000 tons and the center of the spot market continuing to decline. Technically, the previous bottom support of the futures price is limited, and it is expected to continue to explore the bottom in the short term [2][4][7]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Data - From May 9th to May 16th, the price of the industrial silicon main contract decreased from 8,205 yuan/ton to 8,100 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.28%. The prices of various grades of industrial silicon and related products such as organic silicon DMC and polysilicon dense materials also showed varying degrees of decline, while the price of 3303 spot remained unchanged. The industrial silicon social inventory increased from 596,000 tons to 599,000 tons, an increase of 0.50% [5]. Market Analysis and Outlook - **Macro aspect**: In April, China's social financing increment was 1.16 trillion yuan, an increase of 1.22 trillion yuan year-on-year. The cumulative social financing increment in the first four months was 16.34 trillion yuan, an increase of 3.61 trillion yuan year-on-year. The issuance of government bonds accelerated beyond expectations, which was the main driving force for the acceleration of social financing in April. As of the end of April, China's social financing scale stock reached 424 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 8.7%, indicating that China's economic credit structure is gradually improving and the long-term foundation for stable economic growth remains solid [8]. - **Supply and demand aspect**: As of May 16th, the weekly output of industrial silicon dropped to 69,000 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 3.94% and a year-on-year decrease of 23.58%. The number of open furnaces in the three major main production areas decreased to 213, with an overall open furnace rate of 26.6%. In April, China's industrial silicon output was only 301,000 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 16.1%. On the demand side, polysilicon discussed production cuts again last week, with the production schedule in May possibly less than 100,000 tons. The downstream price pressure in the silicon wafer market is severe, and enterprises have a strong willingness to cut production. The demand in the photovoltaic cell market is sluggish, and both specialized and integrated manufacturers are considering production cuts to reduce inventory. The peak installation period has passed, and the photovoltaic installation in the second quarter is expected to slow down significantly. The photovoltaic winning projects are mostly small and medium-sized projects, which have a limited impact on the overall installation volume [9]. - **Inventory aspect**: As of May 16th, the national social inventory of industrial silicon rose to 599,000 tons, a month-on-month increase of 3,000 tons. The exchange registered warehouse receipt volume decreased slightly. After the exchange introduced new regulations on the delivery standard of delivery products, most of the 4-series brand warehouse receipts could not be re-registered due to excessive titanium content, while the 5-series warehouse receipts that meet the new delivery standard were actively registered and stored, forming a new source of warehouse receipt inventory. The recent pressure on warehouse receipt inventory has weakened mainly due to the continuous decline in domestic production [10]. Industry News - **Component link**: In the first quarter of 2025, JinkoSolar, LONGi, JA Solar, and Trina Solar still ranked among the top four in the photovoltaic module shipment volume. In 2024, their total component shipment volume exceeded 300GW, accounting for nearly 60% of the global new photovoltaic installation. These four companies have established their moats through technological leadership. They have launched new products with high conversion efficiency and are also competing in the next-generation industrial technology [12]. - **Price trend**: According to Sobee Consulting's price tracking data, the price of silicon materials decreased slightly last week. Silicon material enterprises continued to reduce production schedules, and the inventory backlog problem of polysilicon manufacturers was prominent, with the short-term price downward trend difficult to reverse. The prices of silicon wafers and battery cells remained stable. The price of photovoltaic modules has rebounded since March, but with the end of the peak installation period, the component market price has shown a downward trend. In April 2025, nearly 30GW of photovoltaic modules were tendered [13].