贵金属周报 2026 年 1 月 5 日 海外监管加码，贵金属剧烈波动 核心观点及策略 投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可【2015】84 号 李婷 从业资格号：F0297587 投资咨询号：Z0011509 黄蕾 从业资格号：F0307990 投资咨询号：Z0011692 高慧 从业资格号：F3084165 投资咨询号：Z0016301 赵凯熙 从业资格号：F03112296 投资咨询号：Z0021040 何天 从业资格号：F03120615 投资咨询号：Z0022965 敬请参阅最后一页免责声明 1 / 11 ⚫ 元旦假期前三个交易日，贵金属价格出现大幅回调，主要 是由于国内外交易所持续加码监管所致，特别是CME在12 月29日上调金属保证金后，在30再次宣布上调黄金、白银、 铂金及钯金合约的保证金后，COMEX白银期货从82美元/盎 司以上的历史新高大幅回落，其他贵金属也纷纷出现回 调。在国内元旦假期间，外盘金银价格维持高位震荡，铂、 钯价格出现一定的反弹。 ⚫ 美联储12月例会纪要凸显观点分化。纪要显示，多数官员 认为，若未来通胀如期回落，则进一步降息是合适的，但 在降息时点及幅度上，部分官员支持暂停降息。 ...

投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可[2015]84 号 敬请参阅最后一页免责声明 1 / 12 商品日报 20251231 联系人 李婷、黄蕾 电子邮箱 jytzzx@jyqh.com.cn 主要品种观点 宏观：金属价格重回涨势，2026 年消费补贴政策优化 海外方面，美联储内部偏鸽——多数官员认为在 12 月后、若通胀按预期回落，继续降 息是合适的；少数主张阶段性观望。支持降息的核心理由在于就业下行风险上升、需防止劳 动力市场进一步恶化；同时亦有声音警惕通胀再度固化。技术层面一致认定准备金已处充足 区间，必要时将通过短期国债开展准备金管理（RMP）。市场近期较为亮眼的金属在经历短 暂调整后表现分化，白银强势反弹、黄金冲高回落；基本金属全面走强，伦铜涨近 4%，伦 镍涨超 6%创 14 个月新高，伦锡、伦锌同步上行。 国内方面，2026 年"两新"国补政策出炉，补贴结构调整、标准下调。补贴对象新增智 能眼镜、智能家居等智能产品，家装、电动自行车退出国补范围；汽车补贴按车价 10%–12% 执行，封顶标准延续 2025 年（2 万元/1.5 万元）；家电补贴范围收窄，一级能效补贴比例由 20%降至 15%，单件上限由 ...

投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可[2015]84 号 贵金属在快速拉升后，因交易所监管持续加码，导致资金流出，叠加多头获利了结下而 敬请参阅最后一页免责声明 1 / 12 商品日报 20251230 联系人 李婷、黄蕾 电子邮箱 jytzzx@jyqh.com.cn 主要品种观点 宏观：金属价格迎来显著调整，A 股收出九连阳 海外方面，地缘与政策不确定性上升：俄方指控乌克兰试图袭击普京官邸、乌方否认， 俄罗斯随即释放"重新评估谈判立场"的强硬信号，削弱和平进程预期；特朗普宣称首次在 委内瑞拉境内实施打击并对伊朗再度发出军事威胁，显示对外政策更趋激进；同时，特朗普 继续施压杰罗鲍威尔并预告 1 月更换美联储主席人选。金属近期高斜率的行情引来调整，伦 敦金调整超 4%、伦敦银跌幅超 9%，LME 铜高开后回吐涨幅，美元指数震荡至 98 关口，美 股小幅调整。 国内方面，A 股在九连阳后冲高回落，收出十字星，结构性分化加剧，化纤、林木、天 然气等板块领涨，但两市超 3300 只个股下跌，赚钱效应偏弱，成交额小幅放量至 2.16 万亿 元，此前持续净流入的中证 500ETF 周一转为净流出，显示资金追高意愿有所回落，突破 ...

钢材周报 2025 年 12 月 29 日 基本面多空交织 期价震荡走势 核心观点及策略 投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可【2015】84 号 李婷 从业资格号：F0297587 投资咨询号：Z0011509 黄蕾 从业资格号：F0307990 投资咨询号：Z0011692 高慧 从业资格号：F03099478 投资咨询号：Z0017785 王工建 从业资格号：F3084165 投资咨询号：Z0016301 赵凯熙 从业资格号：F03112296 投资咨询号：Z0021040 何天 从业资格号：F03120615 投资咨询号：Z0022965 敬请参阅最后一页免责声明 1/9 ⚫ 宏观面：全国财政工作会议在北京召开。会议指出，2026 年继续实施更加积极的财政政策；扩大财政支出盘子， 确保必要支出力度；优化政府债券工具组合，更好发挥 债券效益。会议要求，2026年财政工作抓好六项重点任 务，包括坚持内需主导，大力提振消费，加大对新质生 产力、人的全面发展等重点领域投入；加快培育壮大新 动能，进一步增加财政科技投入等。 ⚫ 基本面：上周螺纹产量184万吨，环比增加3万吨，表需 203万吨，减少6万吨，厂库140万吨 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The iron ore market shows a situation of strong supply and weak demand. The overseas iron ore arrivals and shipments decreased last week but remained at high levels in the same period of history, with a significant increase in port inventory and continuous supply pressure. On the demand side, the molten iron production stopped falling and stabilized last week, and steel mills made small - scale replenishments before the holiday, leading to a low - level rebound in in - plant inventory. Supported by the pre - holiday replenishment, the market is expected to show a volatile trend [1][4][5][6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Transaction Data | Contract | Closing Price | Change | Change Rate (%) | Total Trading Volume (Lots) | Total Open Interest (Lots) | Price Unit | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | SHFE Rebar | 3118 | - 1 | - 0.03 | 4998891 | 2309982 | Yuan/ton | | SHFE Hot - Rolled Coil | 3283 | 14 | 0.43 | 1750294 | 1238912 | Yuan/ton | | DCE Iron Ore | 783.0 | 3.0 | 0.38 | 1134250 | 567104 | Yuan/ton | | DCE Coking Coal | 1115.5 | 7.5 | 0.68 | 6630132 | 660689 | Yuan/ton | | DCE Coke | 1720.0 | - 20.0 | - 1.15 | 107944 | 34179 | Yuan/ton | [2] 3.2 Market Review - The iron ore futures fluctuated and rebounded last week. Supported by pre - holiday replenishment, both futures and spot prices rose slightly. In the spot market, the price of PB fines at Rizhao Port was 797 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan/ton week - on - week, and the price of Super Special fines was 675 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan/ton week - on - week. The price difference between high - and low - grade PB fines and Super Special fines was 122 yuan/ton [4]. - On the demand side, the molten iron production stopped falling and stabilized last week. Steel mills made small - scale replenishments before the holiday, and the in - plant inventory rebounded from a low level. The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 78.32%, a decrease of 0.15 percentage points from the previous week and 0.39 percentage points from the same period last year; the blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate was 84.94%, an increase of 0.01 percentage points from the previous week and a decrease of 0.61 percentage points from the same period last year; the steel mill profitability rate was 37.23%, an increase of 1.30 percentage points from the previous week and a decrease of 12.55 percentage points from the same period last year; the daily average molten iron production was 226.58 tons, an increase of 0.03 tons from the previous week and a decrease of 1.29 tons from the same period last year [4]. - On the supply side, the overseas iron ore arrivals and shipments decreased last week but remained at high levels in the same period of history. The port inventory increased significantly, and the supply pressure remained. The total global iron ore shipments were 3464.5 tons, a decrease of 128.0 tons from the previous week. The total shipments from Australia and Brazil were 2814.7 tons, a decrease of 150.8 tons from the previous week. The Australian shipments were 1950.6 tons, a decrease of 102.0 tons from the previous week, and the amount shipped from Australia to China was 1694.5 tons, a decrease of 7.6 tons from the previous week. The Brazilian shipments were 864.1 tons, a decrease of 48.8 tons from the previous week. The total shipments from 19 ports in Australia and Brazil were 2748.6 tons, a decrease of 140.7 tons from the previous week. The Australian shipments were 1889.2 tons, a decrease of 101.3 tons from the previous week, and the amount shipped from Australia to China was 1633.1 tons, a decrease of 6.9 tons from the previous week. The Brazilian shipments were 859.4 tons, a decrease of 39.4 tons from the previous week. In terms of inventory, the inventory of imported iron ore at 47 ports across the country was 16619.96 tons, an increase of 394.43 tons from the previous week; the daily average port clearance volume was 328.76 tons, an increase of 0.53 tons [5]. 3.3 Industry News - The National Fiscal Work Conference was held in Beijing. It was pointed out that a more proactive fiscal policy would continue to be implemented in 2026, the fiscal expenditure scale would be expanded, and the government bond tool combination would be optimized. Six key tasks for fiscal work in 2026 were required, including focusing on domestic demand, boosting consumption, increasing investment in key areas such as new - quality productivity and all - around human development, and increasing fiscal investment in science and technology [10]. - Li Qiang, Premier of the State Council, chaired a meeting of the Leading Group for the Compilation of the Outline Draft of the 15th Five - Year Plan. He emphasized planning major projects, projects, and carriers that could drive the overall situation to accumulate new momentum and competitiveness for future development and support domestic demand expansion and economic stability [10]. - Beijing further optimized and adjusted the housing purchase restriction policy. The social security or individual income tax payment period for non - Beijing households to purchase commercial housing within the Fifth Ring Road was reduced from "3 years" to "2 years", and outside the Fifth Ring Road from "2 years" to "1 year". Families with multiple children could purchase one more house within the Fifth Ring Road. The commercial loan interest rate no longer distinguished between first - and second - home purchases, and the minimum down - payment ratio for second - home provident fund loans was reduced to 25% [10]. - Handan and Baoding launched a Level II emergency response for heavy pollution weather at 12:00 on December 26; Xingtai launched a Level I emergency response at 18:00 on December 25; Xi'an implemented a Level II emergency response for heavy pollution weather at 16:00 on December 26; Anhui Province issued an orange warning for heavy pollution weather [10]. 3.4 Relevant Charts A series of charts are provided, including those related to the futures and spot trends of rebar, hot - rolled coils, and iron ore; the basis trend of iron ore; the global production trends of pig iron and crude steel; the shipment volumes of iron ore from Australia and Brazil; the inventory of iron ore at ports and steel mills; the production of domestic mines; and the international freight rates of iron ore [8][11][12][13][15][19][22][24][32][35][40].

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core Views of the Report - For electrolytic aluminum, the macro - situation shows that US Q3 GDP and consumption data strengthen the resilience of the US economy, increasing the market's expectation of a Fed rate cut in January next year. A domestic NDRC article boosts the sentiment of the entire non - ferrous sector, creating a strong bullish atmosphere. Fundamentally, the new production capacity in China and Indonesia continues to increase supply, and the previous shipping issues in the northwest are resolved, leading to a small increase in supply. On the consumption side, due to weak orders, environmental protection controls, and high aluminum prices, the off - season for downstream production deepens. Aluminum ingot inventory increases by 17,000 tons to 617,000 tons, and aluminum rod inventory increases by 1,500 tons to 124,500 tons. Overall, domestic policy announcements and the strong copper price drive the metal sector. After the Christmas holiday, US data may affect Fed expectations and amplify market sentiment fluctuations. The aluminum market sees increasing supply and decreasing demand, with social inventory gradually accumulating. The fundamentals provide limited support for high aluminum prices, but in the short term, sentiment dominates, and aluminum prices are expected to remain strong [2][7]. - For cast aluminum, last week's aluminum alloy operating rate was 59.8%. Due to high costs for secondary aluminum enterprises, some regions reduced production due to profit decline, and some enterprises reduced production due to environmental protection factors, resulting in a slight decrease in supply. On the consumption side, considering factors such as the subsidy policy roll - back in 2026 and pre - emptive consumption demand, the sustainability of new energy vehicle orders in the later stage is uncertain. The exchange inventory increases slightly by 298 tons to 70,000 tons. Overall, under the influence of strong aluminum prices and high scrap aluminum prices, the cost support is strong, but due to poor consumption expectations and high inventory pressure, the upward momentum is weak, and the cast aluminum market is expected to remain volatile [2][8]. 3. Summary of Each Section 3.1 Transaction Data - The SHFE aluminum continuous - third contract price rises from $22,250 to $22,495 per ton, an increase of $245 [4]. - LME aluminum inventory increases from 519,600 tons to 521,050 tons, an increase of 1,450 tons; SHFE aluminum warehouse receipt inventory increases from 76,188 tons to 77,059 tons, an increase of 871 tons [4]. - The spot average price rises from 21,730 yuan/ton to 21,968 yuan/ton, an increase of 238 yuan/ton [4]. 3.2 Market Review - The weekly average price of the electrolytic aluminum spot market is 21,968 yuan/ton, up 238 yuan/ton from last week; the South China spot weekly average price is 21,882 yuan/ton, up 254 yuan/ton from last week [5]. - In the US, Q3 real GDP initial value annualized quarterly growth rate is 4.3%, far exceeding the expected 3.3%, with strong consumer spending as the main driver. The core PCE price index rises 2.9%. In addition, US core capital goods orders and shipments in October both recover, while the consumer confidence index in December drops from 92.9 to 89.1 [5]. - The NDRC's article emphasizes strengthening management and layout optimization of industries such as alumina and copper smelting [5]. - The domestic downstream aluminum processing industry operating rate drops by 0.6% to 60.8% due to weak orders, environmental protection controls, and high aluminum prices [6]. - On December 25, electrolytic aluminum ingot inventory is 617,000 tons, an increase of 17,000 tons; the aluminum rod inventory in major domestic consumption areas is 124,500 tons, a week - on - week increase of 1,500 tons [6]. - The Friday spot price of cast aluminum alloy SMM is 22,000 yuan/ton, up 300 yuan/ton from last Friday; Jiangxi Baotai ADC12 spot price is 21,500 yuan/ton, up 300 yuan/ton from last Friday [6]. 3.3 Market Outlook - Similar to the core view, for electrolytic aluminum, sentiment is expected to drive prices to remain strong in the short term, while for cast aluminum, it is expected to remain volatile [7][8]. 3.4 Industry News - In November 2025, China's primary aluminum imports are about 147,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 40.8% and a year - on - year decrease of 2.5%. From January to November, the cumulative primary aluminum imports are about 2.358 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 19.4% [10]. - Hydro Energi and Hafslund Kraft AS sign a new long - term power purchase agreement, with Hafslund supplying 1.75 TWh of electricity to Hydro from 2036 to 2040 [10]. - On December 22, the Mozambique's Confederation of Business Associations calls on the government to avoid the closure of the Mozal aluminum plant at all costs [10]. 3.5 Related Charts - The report provides 14 charts, including the price trends of LME aluminum 3 - month and SHFE aluminum continuous - third contracts, the Shanghai - London aluminum ratio, LME aluminum premium and discount, and various inventory and price seasonal change charts [12][15][19][21][23][25][27][29].

氧化铝周报 2025 年 12 月 29 日 消息及情绪助推 氧化铝反弹 核心观点及策略 投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可【2015】84 号 李婷 从业资格号：F0297587 投资咨询号：Z0011509 黄蕾 从业资格号：F0307990 投资咨询号：Z0011692 高慧 从业资格号：F03099478 投资咨询号：Z0017785 王工建 从业资格号：F3084165 投资咨询号：Z0016301 赵凯熙 从业资格号：F031122984 投资咨询号：Z00210404 何天 从业资格号：F03120615 投资咨询号：Z0022965 敬请参阅最后一页免责声明 1 / 7 ⚫ 消息面，国家发改委产业发展司发布文章，对氧化 铝、铜冶炼等强资源约束型产业强化管理，市场对 供应端改革预期升温。矿端，国产矿供应平稳，氧 化铝企业采购持续施压，部分地区价格小幅下跌。 进口矿几内亚前期受政府管控影响停采矿企复 采，新建矿企逐步稳定生产以及几内亚国营矿企 也于近期宣布启动开采作业，后续矿石供应预期 相继增加。供应端氧化铝市场供需基本面变化不 大，氧化铝开工依旧处于偏高水平，供应整体保持 充足，下游电解铝工厂开工虽有 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week, the lead price of the main SHFE contract rebounded. The US economic data showed strong resilience, and the employment data was moderate, leading to a slight increase in the expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut and a weak US dollar, which was beneficial to the lead price. The lead concentrate market had little trading, and the processing fee was weakly stable. The scrap battery recyclers' reluctance to sell increased, and the quotation was slightly raised. The primary lead smelters had both production cuts and restarts, and the supply improved marginally. The secondary lead supply was still tight due to environmental protection and raw material shortages. The terminal consumption acceptance declined after the end of the new national standard transition period and stricter supervision, and the spot trading was weak. Overall, the warm macro - sentiment and tight domestic spot supported the lead price rebound, but the open lead ingot import window and the expected transfer of overseas high - inventory pressure restricted the rebound height. In the short term, the lead price was expected to remain oscillating strongly, but the risk of a pullback after the New Year's Day holiday should be vigilant [3][6][7] Summary by Relevant Catalog Transaction Data - From December 19th to December 26th, the SHFE lead price rose from 16,880 yuan/ton to 17,555 yuan/ton, an increase of 675 yuan/ton; the LME lead price rose from 1,984.5 dollars/ton to 1,999.5 dollars/ton, an increase of 15 dollars/ton; the SHFE - LME ratio rose from 8.51 to 8.78, an increase of 0.27. The SHFE inventory decreased by 780 tons to 27,095 tons, the LME inventory decreased by 9,725 tons to 248,900 tons, and the social inventory decreased by 0.26 million tons to 1.79 million tons. The spot premium decreased by 5 yuan/ton to - 75 yuan/ton [4] Market Review - Last week, the main SHFE lead contract PB2602 rebounded strongly, closing at 17,555 yuan/ton with a weekly increase of 4%. The LME lead continued to rebound, closing at 1,999.5 dollars/ton with a weekly increase of 0.76%. In the spot market, as of December 26th, the Jiangxi lead in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions was reported at 17,300 - 17,330 yuan/ton, with a premium of 30 yuan/ton to the SHFE lead 2601 contract. The spot market had few circulating supplies, and the transaction was sluggish. As of December 26th, the LME weekly inventory was 248,900 tons, a weekly decrease of 9,725 tons. The SHFE inventory was 27,095 tons, a decrease of 780 tons from last week. As of December 25th, the SMM five - region social inventory was 1.79 million tons, a decrease of 0.23 million tons from Monday and 0.26 million tons from last Thursday [5] Industry News - In January 2026, the domestic and foreign lead concentrate processing fees were 300 yuan/metal ton and - 145 dollars/dry ton respectively, with the average remaining flat month - on - month. In November, the lead concentrate import volume was 109,800 tons, a month - on - month increase of 11.7% and a year - on - year increase of 15.78%. The silver concentrate import volume was 181,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 21.13% and a year - on - year increase of 26.51%. The import volume of refined lead and lead products was 26,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 42.04%. The export volume of refined lead and lead products was 3,675 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 7.7% and a year - on - year decrease of 4.3% [8] Related Charts - The content includes multiple charts showing the SHFE and LME lead prices, SHFE - LME ratio, SHFE and LME inventories, lead ingot premiums, price differences between primary and secondary lead, scrap battery prices, secondary lead enterprise profits, lead ore processing fees, electrolytic lead and secondary refined lead production, lead ingot social inventory, and refined lead import profit and loss [10][12][14]

贵金属周报 2025 年 12 月 29 日 贵金属狂飙，需系好安全带 从业资格号：F03112296 投资咨询号：Z0021040 从业资格号：F0297587 投资咨询号：Z0011509 黄蕾 从业资格号：F0307990 投资咨询号：Z0011692 高慧 从业资格号：F03099478 投资咨询号：Z0017785 王工建 从业资格号：F3084165 投资咨询号：Z0016301 赵凯熙 核心观点及策略 投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可【2015】84 号 李婷 何天 从业资格号：F03120615 投资咨询号：Z0022965 敬请参阅最后一页免责声明 1 / 12 ⚫ 上周贵金属价格加速上涨，不断刷新历史新高。在上周一 国际金价突破前期高点之后，贵金属普遍进入加速上涨阶 段。上周公布的美国经济数据整体偏强，虽然市场对于1 月降息预期较弱，但对于明年的降息预期仍达2-3次，整 体处于货币持续宽松的环境。日本在意外加息之后，继续 释放干预日元的信号，日元走强对美元形成一定的压制。 ⚫ 目前贵金属价格表现强势，除了美元指数维持弱势运行和 美联储独立性受损，将持续货币宽松为稀贵金属提供宏观 支撑之外，铂钯 ...

铜周报 黄蕾 核心观点及策略 投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可【2015】84 号 李婷 从业资格号：F0297587 投资咨询号：Z0011509 2025 年 12 月 29 日 市场情绪高涨，铜价延续上行 从业资格号：F03112296 投资咨询号：Z0021040 何天 从业资格号：F03120615 投资咨询号：Z0022965 敬请参阅最后一页免责声明 1 / 10 从业资格号：F0307990 投资咨询号：Z0011692 高慧 从业资格号：F03099478 投资咨询号：Z0017785 王工建 从业资格号：F03084165 投资咨询号：Z0016301 赵凯熙 ⚫ 上周铜价延续上行，主因美国三季度GDP增速好于预期， 美联储下一任主席人选或将于近期公布，特朗普表示其必 须站在拥护降息的鸽派立场上，而鲍威尔或将在明年5月 卸任后提前辞去理事职位，美元指数走势疲软提振金属市 场，另一方面，央行连续第10个月加量续作MLF保持市场 流动性充裕，楼市政策将于明年进一步松绑；基本面来看， 海外精矿供应紧缺依旧，非美地区货源偏低，国内社会库 存低位下探，现货消费受到抑制，内贸现货贴水扩大，近 月盘面C结构 ...