Report Information - Report Title: Copper Weekly Report - Date: September 22, 2025 - Main Theme: Interest rate cuts did not exceed expectations, and copper prices oscillated and adjusted [1] Investment Rating - The provided content does not mention the industry investment rating. Core View - Last week, copper prices declined from high levels. The main reason was that the Fed's interest rate cut in September did not exceed expectations. Market risk appetite declined, and the US dollar index rebounded, pressuring the metal market. Fundamentally, overseas mine interference rates continued to rise, the domestic consumption peak season arrived, and new scrap copper tax policies hindered domestic production release. The social inventory turned downward, and the near - month contract shifted to a Back structure. - The market has fully priced in the expectation of 2 - 3 interest rate cuts this year. Some overseas fund long positions took profits. Powell indicated no need to start a large - scale easing cycle, causing market risk appetite to decline and the US dollar to rebound, pressuring the metal sector. Domestically, the capital market sentiment was high. Fundamentally, overseas mine interference rates continued to rise, refined copper production was expected to decline, and the domestic tight - balance structure would intensify. Short - term copper prices were expected to oscillate and adjust [2][10] Summary by Directory 1. Market Data - **Contract Prices**: LME copper decreased from $10,064.50/ton to $9,996.50/ton, a decline of 0.68%; COMEX copper dropped from 464.8 cents/pound to 463.05 cents/pound, a decline of 0.38%; SHFE copper fell from 81,060 yuan/ton to 79,850 yuan/ton, a decline of 1.49%; international copper decreased from 72,030 yuan/ton to 70,810 yuan/ton, a decline of 1.69%. The Shanghai - London ratio decreased from 8.05 to 7.99 [3] - **Inventory**: As of September 19, the total inventory of LME, COMEX, SHFE, and Shanghai bonded area rose to 646,720 tons. LME copper inventory decreased by 6,300 tons (4.09%); COMEX inventory increased by 6,287 short - tons (2.02%); SHFE inventory increased by 11,760 tons (12.51%); Shanghai bonded area inventory decreased by 500 tons (0.65%) [6] 2. Market Analysis and Outlook - **Price Fluctuation Reasons**: The Fed's interest rate cut in September did not exceed expectations, which alleviated market concerns about the Fed's independence, causing market risk appetite to decline and the US dollar to rebound, pressuring the metal market. Fundamentally, overseas mine interference rates continued to rise, the domestic consumption peak season arrived, new scrap copper tax policies hindered domestic production release, and the social inventory turned downward [2][7] - **Inventory Status**: As of September 19, the global inventory continued to rise slightly. LME copper inventory decreased, and the cancellation warrant ratio dropped to 9.75%; SHFE inventory increased but remained at a low level; Shanghai bonded area inventory was basically flat. The LME inventory shifted from accumulation to depletion, while the US copper inventory continued to increase. The Shanghai - London ratio dropped below 8 [7] - **Macro - situation**: The Fed cut the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to 4% - 4.25%. The latest dot - plot showed that there might be another 50 - basis - point cut this year and 25 - basis - point cuts in 2026 and 2027. Domestically, in August, the profits of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 5.2% year - on - year, and from January to August, the cumulative profit growth was 6.2% [7][8] - **Supply and Demand**: Overseas mine interference rates continued to rise, and refined copper production was expected to decline. The new scrap copper tax policy hindered domestic production release. On the demand side, power grid investment projects started, the copper cable industry's operating rate returned to about 80%, and the new energy vehicle industry was approaching the peak season. The domestic tight - balance structure intensified, and the near - month contract price continued to rise, shifting the structure back to Back [2][9][10] 3. Industry News - Anglo American and Codelco signed an agreement to jointly operate adjacent mines in central Chile, which is expected to release at least $5 billion in value and produce an additional 2.7 million tons of copper in 21 years [11] - Freeport McMoRan's Grasberg mine in Indonesia has been suspended due to a mud - flow accident. The long - term suspension may lead to continuously high copper prices. The global copper smelting industry has been facing a serious shortage of concentrates this year [12] 4. Related Charts - The report provides 18 charts, including the price trends of SHFE copper and LME copper, inventory changes in LME, COMEX, SHFE, and Shanghai bonded area, copper basis, spread, and other data, with data sources from iFinD and Tongguan Jinyuan Futures [15][17][23]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The market had fully priced in the Fed's rate cut, leading to a "buy the rumor, sell the fact" situation. There are also uncertainties such as stagflation, hard landing, and geopolitical issues, which may cause the market sentiment to turn cautious [3][8]. - Fundamentally, the theoretical output on the supply - side has increased slightly, but the actual supply of aluminum ingots is expected to be limited due to the high proportion of molten aluminum. Consumption continues to improve marginally, and demand is expected to pick up rapidly due to pre - holiday stocking [3][8]. - Considering the adjustment of macro - sentiment and the favorable supply - demand outlook, aluminum prices are expected to remain strongly volatile [3][8]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Transaction Data | Contract | 2025/9/12 | 2025/9/19 | Change | Unit | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | LME Aluminum 3 - month | 2701 | 2676 | - 25.0 | yuan/ton | | SHFE Aluminum Continuous Three | 21060 | 20790 | - 270.0 | dollars/ton | | Shanghai - London Aluminum Ratio | 7.8 | 7.8 | 0.0 | | | LME Spot Premium | 6.35 | 5.43 | - 0.9 | dollars/ton | | LME Aluminum Inventory | 485275 | 513900 | 28625.0 | tons | | SHFE Aluminum Warehouse Receipt Inventory | 72469 | 71959 | - 510.0 | tons | | Spot Average Price | 20818 | 20872 | 54.0 | yuan/ton | | Spot Premium/Discount | - 40 | - 20 | 20.0 | yuan/ton | | Southern Storage Spot Average Price | 20762 | 20828 | 66.0 | yuan/ton | | Shanghai - Guangdong Price Difference | 56 | 44 | - 12.0 | yuan/ton | | Aluminum Ingot Social Inventory | 62.5 | 63.8 | 1.3 | tons | | Theoretical Average Cost of Electrolytic Aluminum | 16383.85 | 16301.97 | - 81.9 | yuan/ton | | Weekly Average Profit of Electrolytic Aluminum | 4434.15 | 4570.03 | 135.9 | yuan/ton | [4] 3.2 Market Review - The weekly average price of the spot market was 20872 yuan/ton, up 54 yuan/ton from last week; the weekly average price of the Southern Storage spot was 20828 yuan/ton, up 66 yuan/ton from last week [5]. - The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points to 4.00% - 4.25%. After the FOMC statement, the probability of a Fed rate cut in October is over 90%. US economic data shows a slowdown in some indicators [6]. - In China, in August, the added value of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 5.2% year - on - year, and the service production index increased by 5.6% year - on - year [6]. - The downstream aluminum processing industry's operating rate rose 0.1 percentage points to 62.2%. Aluminum ingot social inventory increased by 1.3 tons to 63.8 tons, and aluminum rod inventory increased by 0.25 tons to 13.5 tons [3][7][8]. 3.3 Market Outlook - The Fed cut interest rates by 25bp as expected. The market expects two more rate cuts this year, but Powell's speech increased uncertainty. China's economic data in August continued the pattern of overall slowdown with structural highlights [3][8]. - On the supply side, the operating capacity of electrolytic aluminum remains stable, mainly through capacity replacement. Due to the ramping - up of some previously replaced capacities, production has slightly increased recently. On the consumption side, the downstream aluminum processing operating rate continued to rise, but the increase was limited due to high aluminum prices. Aluminum ingot social inventory increased slightly [3][8]. - Considering the macro and fundamental factors, aluminum prices are expected to remain strongly volatile [3][8]. 3.4 Industry News - The preliminary estimate of the retail market of narrow - sense passenger cars in September is about 2.15 million units, a 6.5% month - on - month increase and a 2.0% year - on - year increase. The retail volume of new energy vehicles is expected to reach about 1.25 million, with a penetration rate of 58.1% [9]. - The US Department of Commerce plans to include more products derived from steel and aluminum products in the tariff scope, and will consider requests for additional tariffs on more imported auto parts in the coming weeks [9]. 3.5 Related Charts The report provides 10 charts, including the price trends of LME Aluminum 3 - SHFE Aluminum Continuous Three, the Shanghai - London Aluminum ratio, LME Aluminum premium/discount, etc., to show the market situation of aluminum [10][11][16].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found 2. Core Views of the Report - Last week, BMD Malaysian palm oil's main continuous contract fell 21 to close at 4,424 ringgit/ton, a decline of 0.47%; palm oil's 01 contract rose 20 to close at 9,316 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.22%; soybean oil's 01 contract rose 6 to close at 8,328 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.07%; rapeseed oil's 01 contract rose 211 to close at 10,068 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.14%; CBOT US soybean oil's main continuous contract fell 1.53 to close at 50.59 cents/pound, a decline of 2.94%; ICE rapeseed's active contract fell 18.6 to close at 618.7 Canadian dollars/ton, a decline of 2.92% [4]. - Palm oil fluctuated within the week, first rising then falling. India's strong imports in August and heavy rainfall in Malaysian production areas, which affected production and led to a weakening of Malaysian palm oil production on a month - on - month basis, limited the price decline. However, the uncertainty of the US biodiesel policy and the decline of US soybean oil dragged down the palm oil trend. Rapeseed oil was strong due to expected low supply in the context of China - Canada trade and continued inventory reduction in China [4][7]. - The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points last week. The dollar index fluctuated at a low level, and oil prices weakened. In terms of fundamentals, heavy rainfall in Malaysian production areas affected production and logistics, and the output of Malaysian palm oil in the first half of September decreased on a month - on - month basis, limiting price declines. But the uncertainty of the US biodiesel policy dragged down US soybean oil. Palm oil is expected to fluctuate in the short term [4][10]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Data - CBOT soybean oil's main continuous contract fell from 52.12 cents/pound to 50.59 cents/pound, a decline of 2.94%; BMD Malaysian palm oil's main continuous contract fell from 4,445 ringgit/ton to 4,424 ringgit/ton, a decline of 0.47%; palm oil's 01 contract rose from 9,296 yuan/ton to 9,316 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.22%; soybean oil's 01 contract rose from 8,322 yuan/ton to 8,328 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.07%; rapeseed oil's 01 contract rose from 9,857 yuan/ton to 10,068 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.14%. Spot prices also showed different trends [5]. 3.2 Market Analysis and Outlook - Palm oil fluctuated within the week, with India's strong imports and production problems in Malaysia limiting price declines, while the US biodiesel policy uncertainty and the decline of US soybean oil dragging it down. Rapeseed oil was strong due to supply concerns [7]. - From September 1 - 15, 2025, Malaysian palm oil's yield, oil extraction rate, and output decreased on a month - on - month basis. Different institutions' data on Malaysian palm oil exports from September 1 - 15 showed mixed trends. India's palm oil imports in August reached a high level, and the total import of edible vegetable oil also increased [8][9]. - As of September 12, 2025, the inventory of three major oils in key regions in China increased slightly compared to last week and significantly compared to the same period last year. As of September 19, the weekly average daily trading volume of soybean oil increased, while that of palm oil decreased [9][10]. 3.3 Industry News - Heavy rainfall in Sabah, Malaysia, caused floods and the cancellation of a state - level celebration. Edible oil prices, including palm oil, are expected to be firm in 2025, and the supply - demand gap will continue in 2026 [11]. 3.4 Related Charts - The report provides multiple charts showing the trends of palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil in futures and spot markets, as well as the production, inventory, and export data of Malaysia and Indonesia's palm oil, and the commercial inventory of three major oils in China [12][13][14]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Both domestic and overseas alumina supplies are abundant, especially the overseas prices have accelerated their decline in the past week. The theoretical import window has slightly opened. If it persists, increased imports in the next two months may exacerbate the domestic oversupply situation. The consumption side remains relatively rigid, and the rising warehouse receipt inventory continues to exert pressure. Alumina is expected to remain weak [2][6]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Transaction Data | Category | 2025/9/12 | 2025/9/19 | Change | Unit | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Alumina Futures (Active) | 2914 | 2953 | 39 | Yuan/ton | | Domestic Alumina Spot | 3099 | 3061 | -38 | Yuan/ton | | Spot Premium | 224 | 133 | -91 | Yuan/ton | | Australian Alumina FOB | 333 | 323 | -10 | US dollars/ton | | Import Profit and Loss | 123.59 | 175.36 | 51.8 | Yuan/ton | | Exchange Warehouse | 138692 | 150393 | 11701 | Tons | | Exchange Factory Warehouse | 0 | 0 | 0 | Tons | | Bauxite in Shanxi (6.0 ≤ Al/Si < 7.0) | 600 | 600 | 0 | Yuan/ton | | Bauxite in Henan (6.0 ≤ Al/Si < 7.0) | 610 | 610 | 0 | Yuan/ton | | Bauxite in Guangxi (6.5 ≤ Al/Si < 7.5) | 460 | 460 | 0 | Yuan/ton | | Bauxite in Guizhou (6.5 ≤ Al/Si < 7.5) | 510 | 510 | 0 | Yuan/ton | | Guinea CIF | 75 | 74 | -1 | US dollars/ton | [3] 3.2 Market Review - Alumina futures' main contract rose 1.34% last week, closing at 2953 Yuan/ton. The national weighted average price in the spot market was reported at 3099 Yuan/ton on Friday, a decrease of -67 Yuan/ton compared to the previous week [4]. - In the bauxite market, the domestic ore market was stable. The supply shortage in the north was slightly aggravated by rainy weather, while the supply in the south was relatively stable. The import market continued to monitor the impact of Guinea's referendum results on ore policies, and the market trading was stable for the time being [4]. - On the supply side, alumina supply increased slightly. A roasting furnace of an alumina enterprise in Guangxi that was under maintenance has resumed normal production this week, resulting in a slight increase in alumina supply compared to the previous period. As of September 18, China's alumina production capacity was 114.8 million tons, the operating capacity was 95.7 million tons, and the operating rate was 83.36% [4]. - On the consumption side, electrolytic aluminum enterprises in Shandong continued to transfer their production capacity to Yunnan. Overall, the total operating capacity of electrolytic aluminum remained stable compared to the previous week, and there was no significant change in alumina demand [4]. - In terms of inventory, the alumina futures warehouse receipt inventory increased by 85,000 tons last Friday to 150,000 tons, while the factory warehouse remained at 0 tons [4]. 3.3 Market Outlook - Last week, the bauxite price was stable, and the trading atmosphere was calm. The alumina price gradually declined, and there was a strong wait - and - see sentiment in ore procurement. On the supply side, some previously maintained production capacities in Henan and Guizhou resumed production last week, so the operating capacity of alumina slightly increased to 83.36%. Overseas alumina supply is abundant, and the FPB price of imported alumina has been declining continuously during the week. On the consumption side, electrolytic aluminum enterprises mainly rely on long - term contracts for rigid demand tender procurement, with stable demand and a strong wait - and - see attitude. The warehouse receipt inventory continued to increase by 8.5 tons during the week to 150,000 tons, and the factory warehouse remained at 0 tons [2][5][6]. 3.4 Industry News Recently, Aluminium Bahrain and Hydro officially renewed their alumina supply agreement. This renewal not only further consolidates their long - standing strategic partnership but also provides a stable supply guarantee of high - quality alumina for Aluminium Bahrain's production and operation. In the context of global aluminum industry supply chain fluctuations, this cooperation has attracted much attention [7] 3.5 Related Charts The report provides charts on alumina futures price trends, alumina spot prices, alumina spot premiums, alumina cost - profit, bauxite prices, caustic soda prices, power coal prices, and alumina exchange inventory [8][9][10][11][12][13][14][15][16][17][18][19][20][22]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week, the CBOT November soybean contract dropped 19.25 to close at 1026 cents per bushel, a decline of 1.84%; the soybean meal 01 contract fell 65 to close at 3014 yuan per ton, a decline of 2.11%; the South China soybean meal spot price dropped 30 to close at 2950 yuan per ton, a decline of 2.0%; the rapeseed meal 01 contract declined 9 to close at 2522 yuan per ton, a decline of 0.36%; the Guangxi rapeseed meal spot price dropped 20 to close at 2560 yuan per ton, a decline of 0.77% [4][7]. - The decline of US soybeans was mainly due to demand concerns, and the drop of soybean meal was mainly because of sufficient spot supply and weak basis operation. The market expected a possible Sino - US agricultural product procurement agreement, leading to the downward oscillation of Dalian soybean meal. Rapeseed meal was relatively resistant to decline as it continued the de - stocking rhythm and future supply was gradually tightening [4][7]. - Precipitation in Brazilian production areas is conducive to sowing. The pressure of US soybean harvest is emerging, the export sales progress is slow, and demand concerns lead to the decline of the external market. The high operating rate of oil mills, high soybean meal inventory, and sufficient spot supply. Although the feed enterprises have inventory replenishment needs before the double festivals, it is expected to be limited. The procurement of old - crop Brazilian soybeans has slowed down, the premium has declined, and the support of import cost has weakened. The Sino - US agricultural product procurement agreement has not been confirmed, and the follow - up Sino - US economic and trade progress should be monitored. Recently, Dalian soybean meal has stopped falling and is expected to oscillate in a short - term range [4][11]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Data - The CBOT November soybean contract price dropped from 1045.25 to 1026 cents per bushel, a decline of 1.84%; the CNF import price of Brazilian soybeans decreased from 490 to 484 dollars per ton, a decline of 1.22%; the CNF import price of US Gulf soybeans dropped from 466 to 459 dollars per ton, a decline of 1.50%; the Brazilian soybean crushing profit on the disk decreased by 3.08 yuan per ton; the soybean meal 01 contract price fell from 3079 to 3014 yuan per ton, a decline of 2.11%; the rapeseed meal 01 contract price declined from 2531 to 2522 yuan per ton, a decline of 0.36%; the East China soybean meal spot price dropped from 3000 to 2940 yuan per ton, a decline of 2.00%; the South China soybean meal spot price decreased from 2980 to 2950 yuan per ton, a decline of 1.01%; the South China spot - futures price difference increased by 35 yuan per ton [5]. Market Analysis and Outlook - As of the week of September 14, 2025, the US soybean good - to - excellent rate was 63%, the harvest rate was 5%, the defoliation rate was 41%, and about 36% of the planting areas were affected by drought [8]. - As of the week of September 11, 2025, the net export sales of US soybeans in the 2025/2026 season was 92.3 tons, and the cumulative sales volume was 1028 tons. China has not purchased new - crop US soybeans. As of the week of September 12, 2025, the US soybean crushing gross profit was 3.14 dollars per bushel. The NOPA monthly report showed that the US soybean oil inventory in August 2025 was 1.245 billion pounds, and the soybean crushing volume was 189.81 million bushels [9]. - As of last Thursday, the sowing of Brazilian 2025/2026 soybeans was 0.12% of the total estimated area. The soybean export volume in September is expected to rise to 753 tons. As of the week of September 12, 2025, the soybean inventory of major oil mills was 733.2 tons, the soybean meal inventory was 116.44 tons, the unexecuted contract was 588.7 tons, and the national port soybean inventory was 968.6 tons [10]. - As of the week of September 19, 2025, the daily average trading volume of national soybean meal was 132,540 tons, the daily average pick - up volume was 198,284 tons, the main oil mills' crushing volume was 2.4275 million tons, and the feed enterprises' soybean meal inventory days were 9.42 days [11]. Industry News - As of last Thursday, the sowing of Brazilian 2025/26 soybeans was 0.12% of the total estimated area, slightly higher than 0.06% of the same period last year. The expected output of the new season is 180 million tons. In the Toledo area of Brazil, about 4,900 hectares of soybeans have been planted, accounting for 1% of the planned area [12]. - As of the week of September 7, 2025, the Canadian rapeseed export volume decreased by 1.5% to 47,200 tons. From August 1 to September 7, 2025, the export volume was 529,500 tons, a decrease of 53.4% compared with the same period last year. The commercial inventory was 516,200 tons [13]. - The estimated output of Brazilian 2024/25 soybeans remained at 170.3 million tons, the estimated export volume in 2025 remained at 109.5 million tons, and the estimated crushing volume in 2025 was raised to 58.5 million tons [13]. - Ukrainian rapeseed exports have been blocked for two consecutive weeks due to disputes over customs documents after a 10% export tariff was imposed [13]. - The estimated output of Australian 2025/26 rapeseed is 6.1 million tons, an increase of 3.4%. The estimated output of EU and UK rapeseed in 2025 is 21.6 million tons, higher than the previous estimate [14]. - The estimated output of Canadian rapeseed in 2025 is expected to increase by 4.1% to 2 million tons, with a 6.2% increase in yield per unit area and a 2.0% decrease in harvest area [14]. - The CONAB agency estimated that the Brazilian 2025/2026 soybean output will increase by 3.6% to 177.67 million tons, and the planting area will be 49.08 million hectares [15]. Relevant Charts - The report provides multiple charts, including the trend of US soybean continuous contracts, Brazilian soybean CNF arrival price, RMB spot exchange rate trend, regional crushing profit, soybean meal main contract trend, etc., to visually present relevant data [16][17][20][22].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The rebound of industrial silicon last week was mainly due to the Fed's expected interest rate cut, which released an expectation of loose liquidity, and the marginal increase in the profit growth rate of industrial enterprises in August. The polysilicon self - discipline meeting further boosted prices, triggering a catch - up rally in industrial silicon. The supply side maintained moderate growth, and the demand side showed different trends in various segments. Overall, the rebound of industrial enterprise profit growth in China and the Fed's interest rate cut boosted the market, and the polysilicon industry planned the next round of production cuts. Technically, the 8800 level on the futures chart has confirmed medium - term support, and the polysilicon futures price is expected to enter a volatile upward trend in the short term [2][5][9]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Data | Contract | 9/12 | 9/5 | Change | Change Rate | Unit | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Industrial silicon main contract | 8745.00 | 8820.00 | - 75.00 | - 0.85% | Yuan/ton | | Oxygen - containing 553 spot | 9200.00 | 9100.00 | 100.00 | 1.10% | Yuan/ton | | Non - oxygen - containing 553 spot | 9000.00 | 8950.00 | 50.00 | 0.56% | Yuan/ton | | 421 spot | 9500.00 | 9400.00 | 100.00 | 1.06% | Yuan/ton | | 3303 spot | 10300.00 | 10300.00 | 0.00 | 0.00% | Yuan/ton | | Organic silicon DMC spot | 10700.00 | 10650.00 | 50.00 | 0.47% | Yuan/ton | | Polysilicon dense material spot | 50.00 | 48.00 | 2.00 | 4.17% | Yuan/kg | | Industrial silicon social inventory | 53.9 | 53.7 | 0.2 | 0.37% | 10,000 tons | [3] 3.2 Market Analysis and Outlook - **Macro aspect**: In August, the profits of large - scale industrial enterprises in China increased by 5.2% year - on - year, and the cumulative profit growth from January to August was 6.2%. Different industries showed different growth rates [6]. - **Supply - demand aspect**: As of September 19, the weekly output of industrial silicon was 94,700 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.8% and a year - on - year decrease of 0.43%. The overall furnace - opening rate slightly increased to 39.1%. After the polysilicon self - discipline meeting, enterprises had production cut plans but the amplitude was limited. The silicon wafer segment started production cuts in October, with no short - term demand for large - scale restocking. The price of photovoltaic cells rose moderately, and the component segment showed narrow - range fluctuations [5][7][9]. - **Inventory aspect**: As of September 19, the national social inventory of industrial silicon rose to 543,000 tons. As of September 5, the warehouse receipt inventory on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange continued to rise to 49,874 lots, equivalent to 249,000 tons. The 5 - series warehouse receipts that met the new delivery standards were actively registered and stored [8]. 3.3 Industry News - **MENA region power market**: According to the IEA report, the power consumption in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region will continue to grow rapidly in the next decade. The proportion of fossil fuels in power generation will decline, while solar photovoltaic power generation will grow rapidly. The investment in the MENA power sector is expected to increase by 50% by 2035. Improving air - conditioning energy efficiency is crucial for controlling peak power demand [10]. - **Inner Mongolia policy**: On September 12, Inner Mongolia issued a notice to optimize the mechanism of mandatory and voluntary consumption of renewable energy power. It requires new "two - high" projects to have a certain proportion of green power consumption and increases the proportion of green power consumption for existing enterprises [11]. 3.4 Relevant Charts The report provides charts on industrial silicon production, export volume, domestic social inventory, warehouse receipt inventory on the futures exchange, weekly production in main producing areas, organic silicon DMC production, polysilicon production, and spot prices of industrial silicon and related products [14][15].

投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可[2015]84 号 商品日报 20250919 国内方面，科技部称：人形机器人正加速在汽车制造、物流搬运、电力巡检等场景落地， 奠定万亿级产业发展基础；同时，国家创业投资引导基金正加快组建，预计将撬动近 1 万亿 元地方与社会资本。A 股冲高回落，上证指数创下新高 3899.96 后最低调整近 100 点，两市 超 4000 只个股收跌，成交额放量至 3.17 万亿，微盘、红利风格跌幅较大，餐饮旅游、半导 体、通信板块领涨。目前经济基本面温和、政策预期酝酿中，中美外交看点升温，股市短期 预计维持高位震荡，持续创新高仍需催化。债市处于对利好钝化、对利空敏感的时期，股市 调整下债市依旧偏弱，10Y、30Y 利率回升至 1.78%、2.07%，整体保持观望，配置机会犹存 但空间有限。 贵金属：市场消化美联储信号，金银延续回调 周四国际贵金属期货价格延续回调，COMEX 黄金期货跌 1.07%报 3678.2 美元/盎司， COMEX 白银期货跌 0.12%报 42.1 美元/盎司。市场在继续消化美联储 9 月议息会议释放的 鹰鸽参半的信号，部分资金获利了结，金银价格承压回调。昨日美联储 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - Overseas, the Fed cut interest rates by 25bp to 4.00 - 4.25%, with dovish signals. Various assets fluctuated sharply. Domestically, A - shares oscillated and rose, expected to remain high - oscillating. The bond market was in a sensitive period, with limited configuration space [2][3]. - For precious metals, after the Fed's interest - rate cut, gold and silver prices pulled back and are expected to oscillate weakly in the short term [4][5]. - Copper prices retreated due to the Fed's weaker - than - expected interest - rate cut and are expected to oscillate and adjust in the short term [6][7]. - Aluminum prices adjusted. The fundamentals remained stable, and the adjustment was expected to be limited [8][9]. - Zinc prices are expected to stabilize and repair after the interest - rate cut, but the upward space depends on the arrival of the consumption peak season [10][11]. - Lead prices oscillated horizontally due to the intertwining of long and short factors [12]. - Tin prices are expected to oscillate weakly as the market digests the Fed's signals [13][14]. - Industrial silicon prices are expected to oscillate strongly with the improvement of demand expectations [15][16]. - Lithium carbonate prices oscillated, waiting for policy implementation to boost prices [17]. - Nickel prices oscillated. The macro boost was limited, but the relatively loose monetary environment was still positive [18][19]. - Oil prices oscillated due to fluctuating geopolitical risks and limited impact from the Fed's interest - rate cut [20][21]. - For soda ash and glass, attention can be paid to the opportunity of narrowing the glass - soda ash price difference, while being vigilant about the pressure of high soda ash inventory [22]. - Steel prices oscillated after the Fed's interest - rate cut, with limited changes in fundamentals [23][24]. - Iron ore prices oscillated and rebounded, with strong spot prices and expected support from restocking [25]. - Bean and rapeseed meal prices oscillated and declined, influenced by Sino - US news, and are expected to oscillate weakly in the short term [26][27]. - Palm oil prices oscillated and adjusted due to the decline in Malaysian palm oil production and uncertain US biodiesel policies [28][29]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Metal Main Varieties Yesterday's Trading Data - The table shows the closing data of main futures markets for various metals, including contract names, closing prices, price changes, price change percentages, trading volumes, open interest, and price units [30]. 2. Industrial Data Perspective - For copper, on September 17, SHFE copper and LME copper prices both declined, with changes in inventory, spot quotes, and other data [31]. - For nickel, SHFE nickel prices fell on September 17, and LME nickel prices remained unchanged, with corresponding changes in inventory and other data [31]. - For zinc, SHFE zinc prices rose slightly on September 17, and LME zinc prices fell, with changes in inventory and other data [34]. - For lead, SHFE lead prices rose on September 17, and LME lead prices fell slightly, with changes in inventory and other data [34]. - For aluminum, SHFE aluminum prices fell on September 17, and LME aluminum prices also declined, with changes in inventory and other data [34]. - For alumina, SHFE alumina prices fell on September 17, and the national average spot price also decreased [34]. - For tin, SHFE tin prices fell on September 17, and LME tin prices also declined, with changes in inventory and other data [34]. - For precious metals, there were changes in prices, inventory, and other data of gold and silver in different markets on September 17 [34]. - For other varieties such as steel, iron ore, coke, coal, lithium carbonate, industrial silicon, and agricultural products, there were corresponding price and data changes on September 17 [36][38].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The market is highly concerned about the Fed's interest rate decision, with a general expectation of a 25bp rate cut. Most commodities are in a state of waiting for the outcome of the meeting, and their short - term trends are affected by this expectation [4][6][16]. - Domestic policies are being introduced to boost service consumption, and the A - share market is expected to oscillate at a high level in the short term, while the bond market remains on the sidelines [3]. - Different commodities have different supply - demand fundamentals, which, combined with macro - factors, determine their price trends. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Macroeconomics - Overseas: The US retail sales in August increased by 0.6% month - on - month, higher than expected, indicating strong consumption. The market is waiting for the FOMC result, with the US dollar index falling, and the gold price hitting a new high [2]. - Domestic: The Ministry of Commerce and other nine departments have introduced new policies for service consumption. The A - share market is oscillating, with more than 3,600 stocks rising. The bond market is sensitive to negatives, and the 10Y and 30Y interest rates have been restored to 1.78% and 2.08% respectively [3]. Precious Metals - Gold and silver showed mixed performance. COMEX gold futures rose 0.23% to $3,727.5 per ounce, while COMEX silver futures fell 0.19% to $42.88 per ounce. The market expects the Fed to cut interest rates, but some funds are cautious as the rate - cut approaches [4]. Copper - Before the Fed's interest rate meeting, the market is cautious. The expectation of a 25 - basis - point rate cut this month may have been digested. The market is highly concerned about the future path of the "dot plot". Part of the overseas long - position funds have taken profits in advance. The dollar index is continuously weakening, and the copper price still has upward potential in the medium term [6]. Aluminum - The aluminum price continued to oscillate strongly. The market's strong expectation of a Fed rate cut has boosted the aluminum price. However, high prices have restricted downstream procurement to some extent. The consumption peak season needs to be verified, and the price needs fundamental support to rise further [7][8]. Zinc - The expectation of a large - scale rate cut has weakened. The LME zinc inventory has been continuously decreasing, supporting the price of London zinc and thus the Shanghai zinc price. The domestic downstream procurement is still cautious, and the zinc price oscillates narrowly in the short term [9]. Lead - The expectation of refinery复产 has increased, and the supply - side support for the lead price has weakened. However, the expected stocking demand of downstream battery enterprises during the National Day holiday and the expected outflow of some goods after delivery will support the price. The lead price is expected to adjust at a high level in the short term [10]. Tin - The LME 0 - 3 BACK has slightly widened, and the slow resumption of tin mines in Myanmar and domestic refinery maintenance support the price. However, the increase in inventory at home and abroad and insufficient downstream consumption make it difficult for the price to rise. The tin price will continue to oscillate horizontally in the short term [11]. Industrial Silicon - The demand expectation has improved, and the industrial silicon price is running strongly. The supply is slightly shrinking, and the demand side shows signs of improvement. The short - term price is expected to oscillate [12][13]. Carbonate Lithium - The lithium price may still rise. The downstream stocking expectation is strong, but the acceptance of prices is weak. The risk of resource disruption has not been eliminated, and the high - level emphasis on anti - involution provides support for the price [14]. Nickel - As the Fed's interest rate meeting approaches, the market generally expects a 25bp rate cut. If there is no more - than - expected rate cut, the nickel price may experience a phased correction. The nickel ore market is generally loose, and the domestic nickel - iron cost pressure remains [15][16]. Crude Oil - Geopolitical tensions and inventory reduction have led to an oscillating and strengthening oil price. Although the market has a strong expectation of oversupply in the fourth quarter, the significant reduction in API crude oil inventory has boosted the bulls' sentiment. Geopolitical premiums are continuously factored in [17][18]. Soda Ash and Glass - Attention should be paid to cross - variety arbitrage opportunities. The soda ash price increase may be related to demand and macro - expectations. The glass factory's shipment is smooth, and the market expects the Fed's interest rate meeting to drive domestic liquidity release. One can pay attention to the opportunity of the narrowing spread between glass and soda ash [19][20]. Steel (Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil) - The steel price is oscillating. After the continuous rise, the market sentiment has been released, and the fundamental demand is poor. The supply has increased, and the peak - season expectation is difficult to be fulfilled. The price is expected to oscillate, and attention should be paid to the impact of the Fed's rate cut on the market [21]. Iron Ore - The port inventory has decreased, and the futures price is oscillating and rebounding. The external ore shipment has increased significantly, and the demand side is supported by the high - level resumption of blast - furnace operation. There is still an expectation of restocking in mid - to - late September [22]. Soybean Meal and Rapeseed Meal - The market trading is light, and the Dalian soybean meal is oscillating within a range. The short - term supply is under pressure, and the long - term import is uncertain. The future trend depends on the US bio - fuel redistribution plan and Sino - US and Sino - Canadian trade relations [23][24]. Palm Oil - The palm oil is oscillating and adjusting. The price of edible oils, including palm oil, is expected to be firm. The supply is expected to be less than the demand in 2025 and 2026. The strong performance of rapeseed oil and the impact of weather on palm oil production and export support the price [25].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The international gold price has reached a new high, and the expectation of domestic policy strengthening has increased. The market's logic of betting on interest - rate cuts continues, and the prices of precious metals, copper, and other commodities are affected by various factors such as Sino - US relations, economic data, and Fed's interest - rate decisions [2][3]. - Different commodities show different trends. For example, precious metals are expected to be strong before the Fed's interest - rate cut in September but may face short - term corrections after the cut; copper prices are expected to oscillate upward; aluminum prices are macro - driven and remain strong; zinc prices are expected to slowly move up; lead prices are expected to be strong in the short term but need to pay attention to the callback risk; tin prices are expected to move into a consolidation phase; industrial silicon prices are expected to oscillate; lithium carbonate prices may rise; nickel prices are cautiously bullish; oil prices are oscillating; soda ash prices are expected to oscillate, and glass prices may rise; steel prices are expected to oscillate and rebound; iron ore prices are expected to be strong; and soybean and rapeseed meal prices are expected to oscillate, while palm oil prices are expected to adjust [4][5][7]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Macroeconomic Situation - Overseas: Sino - US reached a framework agreement on TikTok, and the deadline may be extended. Before the FOMC meeting, the market's logic of betting on interest - rate cuts continued, with the US dollar index falling, US bond yields declining, the US stock market reaching a new high, and the gold price hitting 3685 and copper price reaching a 15 - month high. The Senate approved Trump's nominee for the Fed governor [2]. - Domestic: The economic data in August cooled down comprehensively. The market's expectation of policy strengthening increased, and an event to introduce policies to expand service consumption will be held on September 17. The A - share market oscillated narrowly, and the bond market was in a state of being insensitive to good news and sensitive to bad news [3]. 3.2 Precious Metals - The prices of international precious metals continued to rise on Monday. The COMEX gold futures rose 0.90% to $3719.50 per ounce, and the silver price reached a nearly 14 - year high. Trump's pressure on the Fed to cut interest rates and the deterioration of US employment data strengthened the expectation of interest - rate cuts. The latest US economic data was weak. The expectation of the Fed's interest - rate cut in September has been fully priced in the market, and there may be one or two more cuts by the end of the year. The report that China may relax gold import and export regulations stimulated strong buying [4][5]. - Before the Fed's interest - rate cut on September 18, the prices of gold and silver are expected to remain strong. However, after the interest - rate cut, there may be a short - term correction due to profit - taking [5]. 3.3 Copper - The main contract of Shanghai copper oscillated upward on Monday, and LME copper continued to rise after breaking through the integer mark. The spot market trading of electrolytic copper was dull. Sino - US reached a strategic framework consensus in the new - round negotiation. The market has basically confirmed a 25 - basis - point interest - rate cut, with the possibility of a 50 - basis - point cut. The weakening of the US dollar index boosted the metal market. Freeport's copper - gold mine in Indonesia is still shut down [6][7]. - Given the positive macro - environment and the interruption of overseas mines and the approaching consumption peak season in China, copper prices are expected to oscillate upward in the short term [7]. 3.4 Aluminum - The main contract of Shanghai aluminum closed at 21020 yuan/ton, down 0.47% on Monday. The inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots increased. The market is almost certain that the Fed will cut interest rates by 25 basis points on Wednesday, and the weakening of the US dollar index continued to boost aluminum prices. The inventory of aluminum ingots in the social market increased, and the consumption peak season needs to be verified. In the short term, aluminum prices will be macro - driven and remain strong [8]. 3.5 Zinc - The main contract of Shanghai zinc oscillated narrowly during the day and strongly at night on Monday. The spot market trading was mainly among traders, and the downstream demand did not show signs of the peak season. The social inventory increased. The sharp decline of the US New York Fed Manufacturing Index and the weakening of the US dollar boosted the metal. The downstream consumption peak season has not yet appeared, and the inventory increase suppresses zinc prices, but the strong performance of LME zinc boosts Shanghai zinc. In the short term, zinc prices are expected to slowly move up [10]. 3.6 Lead - The main contract of Shanghai lead oscillated during the day and its center of gravity moved down slightly at night on Monday. The inventory increased slightly, but the market expects downstream enterprises to stock up before the National Day holiday, so the impact on lead prices is limited. In the short term, lead prices are expected to remain strong in the oscillation, but attention should be paid to the callback risk due to insufficient consumption improvement [11]. 3.7 Tin - The main contract of Shanghai tin first declined and then rose during the day and oscillated narrowly at night on Monday. The LME tin inventory has stabilized at a low level, and the liquidity risk has decreased. The domestic downstream consumption improvement is limited, and the inventory has increased for two consecutive weeks. However, the shortage of tin ore raw materials has not improved, and the refinery's production has decreased. Tin prices are expected to move into a consolidation phase after the slowdown of the upward trend [12]. 3.8 Industrial Silicon - The main contract of industrial silicon oscillated strongly on Monday. The supply side is slightly shrinking, and the demand side shows signs of recovery. The social inventory has increased slightly. The price of the spot market has stabilized. The domestic anti - involution sentiment is fluctuating. Industrial silicon prices are expected to oscillate in the short term [13][14]. 3.9 Lithium Carbonate - The price of lithium carbonate oscillated strongly on Monday. The supply has reached a new high, and the downstream consumption is good, but the supply pressure still exists. The short - term technical indicators are positive, and the downstream replenishment season has arrived. Lithium carbonate prices may rise, and attention should be paid to the marginal changes in the inventory structure [15][16]. 3.10 Nickel - Nickel prices oscillated on Monday. The Fed is approaching an interest - rate cut, and Indonesia's new round of RKAB approval is coming. The market's bullish sentiment is increasing, but the inventory pressure at home and abroad still exists. Nickel prices are cautiously bullish [17][18]. 3.11 Crude Oil - Oil prices oscillated strongly on Monday. OPEC + has a clear production - increase plan, and the supply pressure exists due to the approaching consumption off - season. However, geopolitical disturbances are frequent, and potential geopolitical risks may drive oil prices to rise periodically. Oil prices are expected to oscillate [19]. 3.12 Soda Ash and Glass - The main contract of soda ash oscillated strongly on Monday. Some soda ash production facilities are under maintenance, and the downstream's willingness to stock up before the National Day is high. However, the market is pessimistic about the future due to high inventory. Soda ash prices are expected to oscillate. The glass market is generally stable, and some flat - glass enterprises have reduced prices to promote sales. The photovoltaic glass market is hot, but there is a risk of capacity reduction. Glass prices may rise [20]. 3.13 Steel and Iron Ore - Steel futures oscillated and rebounded on Monday. The macro - environment and cost support are positive, but the peak - season expectation of steel demand is difficult to be fulfilled. Steel prices are expected to oscillate and rebound. Iron ore futures also oscillated and rebounded. The Sino - US economic and trade cooperation has reached a framework consensus, and the anti - involution policy expectation has increased. The supply is shrinking, and the demand is supported by the approaching National Day holiday. Iron ore prices are expected to be strong [21][22][23]. 3.14 Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - The prices of soybean and rapeseed meal declined on Monday. The US soybean harvest has started. The US soybean's excellent - rate and harvest progress are basically in line with expectations. The NOPA's soybean crushing volume in August was higher than expected. The domestic soybean and soybean meal inventory increased slightly, and the spot supply is sufficient. Soybean and rapeseed meal prices are expected to oscillate in a range [24][25]. 3.15 Palm Oil - Palm oil prices oscillated and adjusted on Monday. The Fed is expected to cut interest rates this week, the US stock market reached a new high, and the US dollar index oscillated weakly. India's palm oil imports in August remained strong, and the export demand of Malaysian palm oil in early September increased. Palm oil prices are expected to adjust in the short term [26][28].