工业硅周报 光伏新政提振市场，工业硅触底反弹 核心观点及策略 ⚫ 上周工业硅触底反弹，主因国家发改委表示将统筹我国电 力外送、就近消纳及电网和调节能力建设等政策，持续推 进新能源高质量发展，极大地提振市场信心。供应来看， 新疆地区开工率维持7成，大厂减产进度缓慢，川滇地区 丰水期开工率小幅反弹，但增量却十分有限，供应端总体 偏弱运行；从需求侧来看，多晶硅市场成交较为有限，大 厂不敢盲目提高排产，二季度排产仍充满不确定性；硅片 市场下跌幅度较大多家企业联合减产挺价；光伏电池部分 厂商已动态调整产线，并采取以销定产的灵活策略；而组 件价格整体持稳但多数厂家下调7月排产，虽有分布式项 目的补装需求但整体终端订单表现疲软，光伏供给侧改革 仍在进行中，但发改委新政极大地提振市场情绪，社会库 存降至54.2万吨主因产量逐月下降，现货市场在发改委新 政的提振下得以企稳反弹。 投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可【2015】84 号 李婷 021-68555105 li.t@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F0297587 投资咨询号：Z0011509 黄蕾 huang.lei@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F030799 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Macroscopically, the Q1 economic data in the US was below expectations, but recent performance was decent with no obvious economic disturbances. Geopolitical conflicts cooled down, and risk appetite in the previously weak commodity market increased, pushing up prices [2]. - Fundamentally, the shortage of nickel ore eased, and smelter maintenance reduced nickel ore consumption. Nickel prices hit a new low at the beginning of the week, stimulating downstream purchases and significantly raising spot premiums. Stainless - steel prices rebounded due to sentiment, but spot sales were lackluster, and the terminal market remained weak. Ferronickel faced dual pressure, with ferronickel plants suspending spot quotes and only maintaining long - term contracts. The price of nickel sulfate was stable with no obvious fundamental improvement [2]. - In the later stage, there is no substantial driver for nickel price increases, and prices may回调 after the sentiment cools. After the implementation of the "Regulations on Ensuring the Payment of Accounts of Small and Medium - sized Enterprises" in early June, the payment cycle of car manufacturers to suppliers has been significantly shortened to within 60 days, which may lead to tight cash flow for car manufacturers. BYD plans to stop night - shift production in some factories, and production may be reduced by one - third. With stable terminal consumption expected, the tightened production schedules of leading car manufacturers may drag down the raw material replenishment of upstream material factories, and the new energy sector may weaken significantly. Traditional consumption has no improvement expectation, supply remains relatively high, and the fundamentals may weaken marginally. The price decline may be mainly due to the lack of strong real - world support for last week's price increase, and prices may fall after risk appetite cools [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Last Week's Market Important Data | | 2025/6/27 | 2025/6/23 | Change | Unit | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | SHFE Nickel | 120480 | 117440 | 3040 | Yuan/ton | | LME Nickel | 15245 | 14804 | 441 | US dollars/ton | | LME Inventory | 204294 | 205140 | - 846 | tons | | SHFE Inventory | 21257 | 21478 | - 221 | tons | | Jinchuan Nickel Premium | 2850 | 3100 | - 250 | Yuan/ton | | Russian Nickel Premium | 600 | 550 | 50 | Yuan/ton | | High - nickel Pig Iron Average Price | 922 | 942 | - 20 | Yuan/nickel point | | Stainless - steel Inventory | 92.1 | 92.6 | - 0.45 | million tons | [3] 3.2 Market Review - **Nickel Ore**: The shortage of nickel ore eased. The FOB price of 1.5% laterite nickel ore from the Philippines rose from $51.5/wet ton to $52.5/wet ton, while that from Indonesia fell from $40.9/wet ton to $38.4/wet ton. Smelter maintenance reduced nickel ore consumption. Although the transaction price of Philippine nickel ore in July remained high, the shipping progress was slow, and the resource side's transition to a loose pattern was slow, so costs may remain high [4]. - **Ferronickel**: The price of high - nickel pig iron (10% - 12%) dropped from 921 Yuan/nickel point to 913 Yuan/nickel point. In May, China's ferronickel production was expected to be about 25,800 metal tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.33%, and in June, it was expected to be 25,600 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.59%. In May, China's ferronickel imports totaled about 848,200 tons, a year - on - year increase of 30.19% and a month - on - month decrease of 3.83%. Indonesia's ferronickel production in May was 141,400 nickel tons, a year - on - year increase of 15.89% and a month - on - month decrease of 1.36%. In June, the expected production was 142,000 nickel tons, a year - on - year increase of 17.88% and a month - on - month increase of 0.46%. In June, the planned production of 300 - series stainless steel in China was about 1.816 million tons, an increase of about 18 tons compared with the same period last year, but the month - on - month increase narrowed. In May, the actual production of stainless steel was 1.87 million tons, stronger than the expected 1.78 million tons, the same as April's production. Overall, due to cost pressure, Indonesia's ferronickel production has declined for two consecutive months. Nickel ore demand has weakened, and the shortage has marginally improved. Although stainless - steel prices rebounded, spot transactions were limited, and it was difficult to boost ferronickel consumption. In the short term, ferronickel may stop falling but has limited rebound potential and is expected to fluctuate at a low level [5]. - **Nickel Sulfate**: The price of battery - grade nickel sulfate remained at 27,400 Yuan/ton, and the price of electroplating - grade nickel sulfate dropped from 29,000 Yuan/ton to 28,000 Yuan/ton. In June, the expected production of nickel sulfate in terms of metal content was about 25,425 tons, a year - on - year and month - on - month decrease of 16.61% and 2.27% respectively. In June, the production of ternary materials increased again, with a total of about 64,600 tons, a year - on - year and month - on - month increase of 30.95% and 1.36% respectively. As of June 20, the downstream nickel sulfate inventory days remained at 12 days from the beginning of the month, and the downstream inventory was at a low level, while the upstream inventory days remained at about 10 days, at a relatively high level. At the end of the month, there is an expectation of downstream replenishment, but due to the contraction of vehicle manufacturers' production schedules, the intensity of downstream replenishment may be lower than before [6]. - **Macro - level**: The Q1 economic data was weak, but durable goods orders were strong, and the labor market remained resilient. As of June 21, the number of initial jobless claims in the US was 236,000, lower than the expected 245,000 and the previous value of 246,000. The final annualized quarterly rate of real GDP in the US in Q1 was - 0.5%, lower than the expected - 0.2% and the previous value of - 0.2%. The final quarterly rate of real personal consumption expenditure was + 0.5%, lower than the expected + 1.2% and the previous value of + 1.2%. The final annualized quarterly rate of the core PCE price index in Q1 was + 3.5%, higher than the expected + 3.4% and the previous value of + 3.4%. The monthly rate of durable goods orders in May was + 16.4%, higher than the expected 8.5% and the previous value of - 6.6%. In terms of monetary policy, Fed officials believe that both inflation and the unemployment rate are expected to rise, and the economic outlook is still uncertain under tariff pressure. Powell advocates continued waiting and deciding on monetary policy after more economic data is available, while some officials believe that the employment market is under pressure and support an early interest - rate cut [6][7]. - **Supply - side**: In June, domestic production capacity was stable, but smelter production schedules declined. According to the SMM's data, the expected production of electrolytic nickel in June was 34,150 tons, further decreasing from May's production. The sample production capacity was 54,099 tons, the same as the previous period. The expected operating rate in June was 63.13%, about 2.21 percentage points lower than last month. In May, the domestic export volume of electrolytic nickel was about 13,900 tons, a year - on - year increase of 18.27% but a significant month - on - month decline. As of June 26, the export profit of nickel in China was $96.26/ton according to the SMM's data. Overall, the center of export profit has moved down, suppressing exports. Coupled with the weakening of nickel prices, domestic supply is expected to decline [7]. - **Terminal Consumption**: From June 1 - 22, the retail sales of new - energy passenger vehicles in China reached 691,000, a year - on - year increase of 38% compared with the same period in June last year and an 11% increase compared with the same period last month. The retail penetration rate of the new - energy market in China was 54.5%, and the cumulative retail sales since the beginning of this year were 5.049 million, a year - on - year increase of 35%. From the high - frequency sales data, terminal consumption was stable. Although the year - on - year growth rate remained high, the data in June last year was weak after the subsidy policy was issued, so the base effect may provide support. As the base gradually increases after July, the year - on - year growth rate may decline. Currently, the core of consumption lies in vehicle manufacturers' production schedules. Affected by the payment - deadline policy, vehicle manufacturers' cash - flow pressure may become prominent, and they may enter the stage of active inventory reduction. BYD has announced the suspension of night - shift production in some factories, and the production of some factories may decline by one - third. The contraction of vehicle manufacturers' production schedules may have a negative impact on upstream battery cell and material factories [8]. - **Inventory**: The current total social inventory of pure nickel in six regions is 37,843 tons, a decrease of 380 tons from the previous period. The SHFE inventory is 21,257 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 221 tons, and the LME inventory is 204,294 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 846 tons. The total inventory of the two major global exchanges is 225,551 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1,067 tons [8]. 3.3 Industry News - **GEM**: As of the end of 2024, the company's domestic production capacity of ternary cathode materials was 20,000 tons/year, the production capacity of the phosphoric (manganese) iron - lithium demonstration line was 10,000 tons/year, the production capacity of cobalt - acid lithium was 5,000 tons/year, and the production capacity of sodium - battery cathode materials was 10,000 tons/year. The company plans to cooperate with strategic partners such as South Korea's ECOPRO to build a full - industrial - chain strategic cooperation body of "nickel resources - precursors - cathode materials" in Indonesia. The project will be implemented in three phases, with the first and second phases planning to build factories with an annual production capacity of 50,000 tons of cathode materials and the third phase planning to build a factory with an annual production capacity of about 100,000 tons of cathode materials, aiming to expand the project market globally [10]. - **Indonesia's MMP Nickel Smelting Project**: The 2 - nd electric furnace of the project located in East Kalimantan, Indonesia, was successfully ignited. The project team overcame various difficulties during the project implementation and laid a solid foundation for subsequent production [10]. - **Zhongwei's Morocco Industrial Base**: On June 25, 2025, the opening ceremony of the first - phase project of Zhongwei's Morocco Industrial Base was successfully held. The first - phase project has an annual production capacity of 40,000 tons of nickel - based materials, which is an important milestone in Zhongwei's global development and the first new - energy material base in Africa [10]. 3.4 Related Charts The report includes charts on the trends of domestic and international nickel prices, spot premiums, LME 0 - 3 nickel premiums, the domestic - to - foreign nickel ratio, nickel futures inventory, nickel ore port inventory, high - nickel iron prices, 300 - series stainless - steel prices, and stainless - steel inventory [12][14].

氧化铝周报 黄蕾 huang.lei@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F0307990 投资咨询号：Z0011692 高慧 gao.h@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F03099478 投资咨询号：Z0017785 2025 年 6 月 30 日 商品氛围偏好 氧化铝企稳震荡 核心观点及策略 投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可【2015】84 号 李婷 021-68555105 li.t@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F0297587 投资咨询号：Z0011509 氧化铝周报 王工建 wang.gj@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F3084165 投资咨询号：Z0016301 赵凯熙 zhao.kx@jygh.com. cn 从业资格号：F031122984 投资咨询号：Z00210404 敬请参阅最后一页免责声明 1 / 7 | | | 上周市场重要数据 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 2025/6/20 | 2025/6/27 | 涨跌 | 单位 | | | 氧化铝期货（活跃） | 2890 | 2986 | 96 | ...

锌周报 2025 年 6 月 30 日 宏微观共振 锌价低位反弹 核心观点及策略 上周沪锌主力期价低位反弹。宏观面看，以伊停火，中东 地缘紧张局势缓和。美国经济就业数据走弱，叠加美联储 官员释放鸽派言论，增强 7 月降息预期，降息及避险回落 影响下，美元跌势不止，利好金属。国内股市持续走强， 且第三批以旧换新资金 7 月下发提振耐用品消费预期，市 场情绪偏好。 gao.h@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F03099478 投资咨询号：Z0017785 王工建 wang.gj@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F3084165 投资咨询号：Z0016301 赵凯熙 zhao.kxj@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F03112296 投资咨询号：Z0021040 投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可【2015】84 号 李婷 021-68555105 li.t@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F0297587 投资咨询号：Z0011509 黄蕾 huang.lei@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F0307990 投资咨询号：Z0011692 高慧 敬请参阅最后一页免责声明 1/ 8 基本面看，受罢 ...

铅周报 2025 年 6 月 30 日 铅价震荡偏强 谨防回吐风险 核心观点及策略 投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可【2015】84 号 李婷 021-68555105 li.t@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F0297587 投资咨询号：Z0011509 黄蕾 huang.lei@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F0307990 投资咨询号：Z0011692 高慧 gao.h@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F03099478 投资咨询号：Z0017785 王工建 wang.gj@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F3084165 投资咨询号：Z0016301 赵凯熙 zhao.kxj@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格 号：F03112296 投资咨询号：Z0021040 敬请参阅最后一页免责声明 1/7 一、 要点 要点 上周沪铅主力期价突破上行。宏观面看，以伊休战缓 解市场避险情绪，同时美联储 7 月降序预期强化，美 元加速下跌，提振内外铅价。 要点 基本面看，铅精矿供应紧张态势强化，7 月国产及进 口加工费均环比回落。废旧电瓶供应维持偏紧，叠加 铅价上涨，回收商报价上调，成本端支撑强化。冶 ...

投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可[2015]84 号 商品日报 20250627 联系人 李婷、黄蕾、高慧、王工建、赵凯熙 电子邮箱 jytzzx@jyqh.com.cn 电话 021-68555105 主要品种观点 宏观：美国一季度消费下修，A 股情绪有所降温 海外方面：美国一季度 GDP 终值从-0.2%下修至-0.5%，个人消费支出增速从 1.2%下修 至 0.5%，创疫情以来最弱表现。与此同时，5 月耐用品订单大超预期，核心耐用品订单回暖 提振二季度 GDP 投资项，预计二季度 GDP 录得 3.4%，目前美国经济仍有韧劲，重点关注 消费及就业边际降温的幅度。"大美丽"法案推进中，贝森特要求删除对外资征报复性税的 争议条款（"899 条款"）。美元指数跌破 97 创逾三年新低，10 年期美债利率回落至 4.25%， 美股集体反弹，弱美元、供应偏紧支撑铜价创三个月新高，金价震荡偏弱。今晚关注美国 5 月 PCE 及密歇根调研"软数据"。 国内方面：A 股在连续 3 日强势上涨后震荡整理，两市成交额仍保持在 1.6 万亿上方， 微盘股与红利风格相对抗跌，稳定币、餐饮旅游、银行板块领涨，市场情绪趋于理性，缺乏 ...

投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可[2015]84 号 联系人 李婷、黄蕾、高慧、王工建、赵凯熙 电子邮箱 jytzzx@jyqh.com.cn 电话 021-68555105 主要品种观点 宏观：美元指数持续走弱，A 股持续放量走强 海外方面：特朗普称美伊下周或会谈，宣称停火是"所有人的胜利"，后续中东冲突影 响或将边际减弱，美联储下任主席及降息节奏成为市场关注主线。特朗普：已有三到四位候 选人可能接替鲍威尔担任下任美联储主席（前美联储理事沃什、美国国家经济委员会主任哈 塞特、现任美联储理事沃勒以及美国财政部长贝森特）。北约各成员国同意将国防开支目标 提升至 GDP 的 5%，虽有望在 2035 年前带动数万亿美元防务投资，但欧洲多国债务高企， 目标落地仍存不确定性。隔夜美元指数下探至 97.6、创下本轮贬值新低，美债利率回落至 4.27%，美股窄幅震荡，铜、油、金小幅反弹。 国内方面：A 股再度放量上涨，两市成交额回升至 1.64 万亿，风格上北证 50、双创板 块表现强劲，行业上金融、军工板块领涨，沪指突破年内高点，股指波动率显著上升，市场 情绪持续升温。本轮上涨缺乏事件、基本面改善驱动，更多由技术面与 FO ...

商品日报 20250625 联系人 李婷、黄蕾、高慧、王工建、赵凯熙 电子邮箱 jytzzx@jyqh.com.cn 电话 021-68555105 宏观：金油回吐地缘溢价，国内股市放量上涨 投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可[2015]84 号 海外方面：以色列与伊朗达成停火协议，地缘风险继续缓解，推动市场焦点重新转向下 半年美联储降息节奏：①鲍威尔国会听证上表示，当前可"有条件等待"，美联储正在评估 关税对经济的影响，利率政策可延后再决策；②偏鸽官员博斯蒂克表态更偏鹰，称暂无降息 必要，预期年内或仅降息一次、幅度 25BP。资产价格方面，自 6 月 13 日以色列空袭伊朗以 来的油价涨幅已全部回吐，金价回调逾 1%，美股延续强势修复，美债收益率回落至 4.3%， 美元指数跌破 98 关口，关注本周五参议院对"美丽大法案"的关键投票。 国内方面：上证指数重返 3400 点上方，两市成交额回升至 1.45 万亿，风格上北证 50、 创业板、微盘股表现强劲，行业上汽车零部件、金融板块领涨，市场风险偏好继续走强，放 量驱动下股指加速上行。央行公告 6 月 MLF 续作 3000 亿，资金维持宽松，一级市场需求偏 弱、股 ...

氧化铝周报 2025 年 6 月 23 日 关注霍尔木兹海峡通行情况 氧化铝成本支撑或受巩固 核心观点及策略 投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可【2015】84 号 李婷 021-68555105 li.t@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F0297587 投资咨询号：Z0011509 黄蕾 huang.lei@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F0307990 投资咨询号：Z0011692 高慧 gao.h@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F03099478 投资咨询号：Z0017785 敬请参阅最后一页免责声明 1 / 7 ⚫ 上周矿端供应保持稳定，不过周末伊朗方面将封 锁霍尔木兹海峡和曼德海峡，如果影响运输，几内 亚进口铝土矿绕行，则运输成本将上行。供应端广 西有氧化铝企业由于矿石原因减产一条生产线， 减产产能50万吨。整体开工产能较前有所下降。消 费端电解铝产能小增，但对后市氧化铝价格看法 谨慎，采购长单执行为主。现货市场货源增量有 限，交易所仓单库存上亦继续减少，周内仓单减少 3.7万吨至4.3万吨，厂库300吨，持平。 ⚫ 整体，短时地缘因素导致的运输成本或将给到矿 价支持，氧化铝下方成本支撑 ...

贵金属周报 2025 年 6 月 23 日 以伊冲突升级，金价高位震荡 核心观点及策略 投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可【2015】84 号 李婷 021-68555105 li.t@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F0297587 投资咨询号：Z0011509 huang.lei@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F0307990 投资咨询号：Z0011692 高慧 gao.h@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F03099478 投资咨询号：Z0017785 王工建 黄蕾 wang.gj@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F3084165 投资咨询号：Z0016301 赵凯熙 zhao.kx@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F03112296 投资咨询号：Z0021040 敬请参阅最后一页免责声明 1 / 10 ⚫ 上周贵金属价格小幅回调而收跌。主要因为美国总统特朗 普延迟决定是否介入以色列与伊朗间的军事冲突，缓和了 短期避险情绪。另外，上周的美联储会议鲍威尔会后表态 偏鹰，也压制金银价格走势。 ⚫ 6月21日，特朗普宣称美军已完成对伊朗三处核设施的袭 击，并在随后发表全国讲话时表示如果伊朗"不 ...