Tong Guan Jin Yuan Qi Huo
Search documents
美国通胀降温,铜价震荡上行
Tong Guan Jin Yuan Qi Huo· 2025-12-22 02:19
铜周报 2025 年 12 月 22 日 美国通胀降温,铜价震荡上行 核心观点及策略 投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可【2015】84 号 李婷 从业资格号:F0297587 投资咨询号:Z0011509 黄蕾 从业资格号:F0307990 投资咨询号:Z0011692 高慧 从业资格号:F03099478 投资咨询号:Z0017785 王工建 从业资格号:F03084165 投资咨询号:Z0016301 赵凯熙 从业资格号:F03112296 投资咨询号:Z0021040 1 / 10 ⚫ 上周铜价震荡上行,美国11月CPI降温强化明年降息基准 预期,美联储鸽派官员支持明年缓慢降息,认为当前政策 利率仍比中性利率高出50-100个基点,日央行兑现加息或 引发全球套利市场的结构性变革,但对金属市场影响较为 有限;国内方面,中国高技术工业产出增速较快,社零维 持稳健增长,中央经济工作会议释放政策延续的积极信 号,消费品以旧换新政策持续推进;基本面来看,海外精 矿维持紧缺,全球非美地区库存偏低,国内终端消费稍显 乏力,内贸现货转向贴水,近月盘面C结构走扩。 ⚫ 整体来看,温和的通胀数据将宽松叙事朝着有利于鸽派的 方向 ...
铂钯强势运行,波动可能加剧
Tong Guan Jin Yuan Qi Huo· 2025-12-22 02:19
贵金属周报 投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可【2015】84 号 李婷 从业资格号:F0297587 投资咨询号:Z0011509 黄蕾 2025 年 12 月 22 日 铂钯强势运行,波动可能加剧 核心观点及策略 从业资格号:F0307990 投资咨询号:Z0011692 高慧 从业资格号:F03099478 投资咨询号:Z0017785 王工建 从业资格号:F3084165 投资咨询号:Z0016301 赵凯熙 从业资格号:F03112296 投资咨询号:Z0021040 何天 从业资格号:F03120615 投资咨询号:Z0022965 敬请参阅最后一页免责声明 1 / 11 ⚫ 上周铂钯价格接棒金银价格表现强劲,且国内铂、钯价格 走势强于外盘,特别是广期所钯期货主力合约在上周三、 周四均冲击涨停,周度涨幅高达23.3%,铂金期货主力合 约周度涨幅达18%,远高于白银期货涨幅,而国际金价维 持高位震荡偏强走势。 ⚫ 上周公布的美国通胀超预期放缓,强化美联储降息预期。 但也有经济学家怀疑政府关门导致数据失真。美联储主席 遴选进程仍在持续,目前候选名单已缩小至四人。上周五 日本央行加息25个基点至0.75%,早 ...
豆粕周报:美豆持续回落,连粕弱势震荡-20251222
Tong Guan Jin Yuan Qi Huo· 2025-12-22 02:19
Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views - Last week, the CBOT March soybean contract dropped 26.75 to close at 1059.5 cents per bushel, a decline of 2.46%; the May bean粕 contract fell 35 to close at 2735 yuan per ton, a decline of 1.26%; the South China bean粕 spot price closed at 3060 yuan per ton, unchanged from the previous week; the May rapeseed粕 contract dropped 24 to close at 2323 yuan per ton, a decline of 1.02%; the Guangxi rapeseed粕 spot price fell 30 to close at 2470 yuan per ton, a decline of 1.20% [3][6]. - Favorable weather conditions in South America have strengthened the expectation of a bumper harvest. Brazil's soybean harvesting will start in January, increasing supply. The overall progress of US soybean export sales is slow, heightening concerns about exports and potentially leading to a downward adjustment of export forecasts. As a result, US soybeans have been weakening, filling the gap from the sharp jump at the end of October. In China, the enthusiasm for imported soybean auctions has cooled, and combined with the decline in import costs, bean粕 prices have fallen this week [3][6]. - South American crops are expected to have a bumper harvest. Brazil's soybean harvesting will start in January, and export supply will increase in February. China's pace of purchasing US soybeans has slowed compared to earlier, and the overall progress of US soybean export sales is slow, causing the outer - market prices to continue to decline. Last week, the imported soybean auction cooled. Attention should be paid to the subsequent auction results. There is still supply in the spot market, and downstream buyers are mainly replenishing stocks on a rolling basis. However, the supply of imported soybeans will decrease in the first quarter, and with the expectation of holiday stocking, there is support for spot prices. It is expected that the main contract of Dalian bean粕 will fluctuate weakly in the short term [3][10]. Summary by Directory Market Data - The CBOT soybean price dropped from 1086.25 to 1059.5 cents per bushel, a decline of 2.46%; the CNF import price of Brazilian soybeans decreased from 490 to 474 dollars per ton, a decline of 3.27%; the CNF import price of US Gulf soybeans fell from 491 to 476 dollars per ton, a decline of 3.05%; the Brazilian soybean crushing margin on the futures market increased from - 110.17 to - 80.72 yuan per ton; the DCE bean粕 price dropped from 2770 to 2735 yuan per ton, a decline of 1.26%; the CZCE rapeseed粕 price fell from 2347 to 2323 yuan per ton, a decline of 1.02%; the price difference between bean粕 and rapeseed粕 decreased from 423 to 412 yuan per ton; the East China spot price of bean粕 dropped from 3080 to 3060 yuan per ton, a decline of 0.65%; the South China spot price of bean粕 remained unchanged at 3060 yuan per ton; the spot - futures price difference in South China increased from 290 to 325 yuan per ton [4]. Market Analysis and Outlook - As of the week ending November 27, the net increase in US soybean export sales for the 2025/2026 season was 110.6 million tons, down from 232.1 million tons the previous week. The cumulative sales volume of current - year US soybeans was 2183 million tons, with a sales progress of 49.1%, compared to 70.9% last year. China's net purchase of US soybeans that week was 50.9 million tons, with a cumulative purchase of 301.5 million tons and an unshipped volume of 301.5 million tons [7]. - As of the week ending December 12, 2025, the US soybean crushing gross profit was 2.33 dollars per bushel, down from 2.45 dollars per bushel the previous week. The spot price of 48% protein bean粕 at Illinois soybean processing plants was 311.2 dollars per short ton, down from 320.87 dollars per short ton the previous week. The truck - delivered price of crude soybean oil in Illinois was 49.67 cents per pound, down from 50.37 cents per pound the previous week. The average price of No. 1 yellow soybeans was 10.77 dollars per bushel, down from 10.95 dollars per bushel the previous week [7]. - The NOPA monthly report showed that the US soybean crushing volume in November was 216.041 million bushels, a 5.1% decrease from October and an 11.8% increase from the same period last year. As of November 30, the soybean oil inventory of NOPA member companies was 1.513 billion pounds, a 15.9% increase from the end of October and a 39.6% increase from the same period last year [8]. - As of the week ending December 12, 2025, the planting rate of Brazilian soybeans for the 2025/26 season was 94.1%, up from 90.3% the previous week and lower than 96.8% last year. Brazil's soybean exports in December are expected to be 3.57 million tons, up from the previous week's forecast of 3.33 million tons. As of the week ending December 17, 2025, the sowing progress of Argentine soybeans was 67.3%, up from 58.6% the previous week and lower than 76.6% last year [8]. - The weather forecast for South American soybean - growing regions shows that in the next 15 days, precipitation in the southern Brazilian soybean - growing regions will increase significantly, while precipitation in the central - western regions will be slightly lower than normal. Overall, the conditions for crop growth and development are good. Precipitation in the Argentine growing regions will be higher than the average [8]. - As of the week ending December 12, 2025, the soybean inventory of major oil mills was 7.3948 million tons, an increase of 239,600 tons from the previous week and 1.3807 million tons from the same period last year; the bean粕 inventory was 1.0969 million tons, a decrease of 65,000 tons from the previous week and an increase of 456,700 tons from the same period last year; the unfulfilled contracts were 5.7202 million tons, a decrease of 600,300 tons from the previous week and an increase of 1.2002 million tons from the same period last year. The soybean inventory at national ports was 9.162 million tons, a decrease of 208,000 tons from the previous week and an increase of 1.3615 million tons from the same period last year [9]. - As of the week ending December 12, 2025, the average daily trading volume of bean粕 nationwide was 121,260 tons, including 50,940 tons of spot trading and 70,320 tons of forward trading, down from 182,400 tons the previous week. The average daily pick - up volume of bean粕 was 181,500 tons, down from 194,500 tons the previous week. The crushing volume of major oil mills was 2.1306 million tons, up from 2.0375 million tons the previous week. The inventory days of bean粕 in feed enterprises were 9.23 days, up from 9.13 days the previous week [9]. Industry News - The AgRural agency reported that as of last Thursday, the sown area of Brazilian soybeans for the 2025/26 season had reached 97% of the expected area, a 3 - percentage - point increase from the previous week. Most regions had good rainfall last week, and the weather forecast indicates more rainfall and favorable temperatures in the coming days [11]. - The Secex agency reported that Brazil exported 1.65022058 million tons of soybeans in the first two weeks of December, with an average daily export volume of 165,022.06 tons, a 73% increase from the average daily export volume in December last year. The total export volume in December last year was 2.0060892 million tons [11]. - Data from the Brazilian Vegetable Oil Industry Association (Abiove) showed that in October 2025, Brazilian factories processed 4.39 million tons of soybeans, producing 3.36 million tons of bean粕 and 900,000 tons of soybean oil. The ending inventory of soybeans at oil mills was 11.265 million tons, the ending inventory of bean粕 was 2.51 million tons, and the ending inventory of soybean oil was 490,000 tons [11]. - According to the European Commission, as of December 14, the EU's palm oil imports in the 2025/26 season were 1.4 million tons, down from 1.5 million tons last year; soybean imports were 5.6 million tons, down from 6.5 million tons last year; bean粕 imports were 8.3 million tons, down from 9.2 million tons last year; and rapeseed imports were 1.7 million tons, down from 2.8 million tons last year [12]. - A commodity research estimated that the 2025/26 Argentine soybean production would remain at 46.9 million tons, with an estimated range of 45.8 - 48.1 million tons. However, the delayed sowing, decreasing soil moisture in the Pampas region, and long - term weather prospects require attention. The estimated planted area is 16.7 million hectares, slightly higher than the Rosario Exchange's report of 16.4 million hectares but lower than the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange's report of 17.6 million hectares [12]. - The Deral agency estimated that the 2025/26 soybean production in Paraná state would be 21.96 million tons, the same as the November estimate. If the estimate is correct, the state's soybean output will increase by 4% compared to the previous year. The agricultural department of Rio Grande do Sul state reported that the sowing rate of soybeans in the 2025/26 season reached 89%, a 13 - percentage - point increase from the previous week. The rainfall ensured soil moisture and was beneficial to the sown crops. The sowing rate exceeded the historical average of 88% but was lower than 91% in the same period last year [13].
铝周报:美联储降息预期保持较高,铝价偏强震荡-20251222
Tong Guan Jin Yuan Qi Huo· 2025-12-22 02:19
2025 年 12 月 22 日 美联储降息预期保持较高 铝价偏强震荡 核心观点及策略 敬请参阅最后一页免责声明 1 / 8 投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可【2015】84 号 李婷 从业资格号:F0297587 投资咨询号:Z0011509 黄蕾 从业资格号:F0307990 投资咨询号:Z0011692 高慧 从业资格号:F03099478 投资咨询号:Z0017785 王工建 从业资格号:F3084165 投资咨询号:Z0016301 赵凯熙 从业资格号:F031122984 投资咨询号:Z00210404 何天 从业资格号:F03120615 投资咨询号:Z0022965 铝周报 ⚫ 电解铝方面,宏观面美国11月非农及CPI皆低于预 期,偏弱的就业数据和回落的通胀提升美联储降息 预期,目前市场定价3月和7月各一次降息。但政府关 门导致市场对11月美通胀数据存疑。基本面供应端 国内及印尼新增产能继续释放增量,国内铝水比例 小幅下降,供应小增。消费端数据中心和储能板块年 末贡献消费增量,整体消费仍具韧性,周度开工率仅 小幅下滑。社会库存出库保持高位,铝锭库存较上周 减少0.6万吨至57.8万吨,铝棒库存12 ...
铅周报:LME交仓拖累,铅价弱稳震荡-20251222
Tong Guan Jin Yuan Qi Huo· 2025-12-22 02:19
Report Date - The report is dated December 22, 2025 [1] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - Last week, the main contract price of Shanghai lead futures rebounded after hitting the bottom. The market slightly raised the expectation of interest rate cuts, and the Bank of Japan raised interest rates as expected. After the important macro - events were settled, the market's cautious sentiment improved [3][6][7] - The LME plans to implement new position limit rules in July 2026, which has accelerated the delivery of stocks by holders, leading to a significant increase in LME inventories and dragging down the prices of lead both at home and abroad [3][6][7] - The processing fee of lead concentrate remains at a low level, and the off - season of terminal battery consumption affects the battery scrap volume. The price of waste batteries remains firm, providing cost support [3][6] - Korea Zinc plans to set up a new lead smelter in the United States, which will increase overseas supply in the medium - to - long term. There is a strike risk at Australian smelters, and its impact needs continuous attention [3][6] - In China, there are both production cuts and restarts in primary lead production. Environmental inspections in Hunan have affected local smelter operations, while some smelters in East China will restart at the end of December. Smelters in Yunnan have restarted, and the first batch of lead - zinc from the Huoshaoyun project has arrived, which is expected to contribute to continuous growth [3][6] - Environmental controls in Anhui and North China have hindered the transportation of waste batteries, causing some local smelters to cut or stop production, dragging down the operation rate of secondary lead smelters [3][6] - The boost effect of the new national standard for electric bicycles is average. Poor vehicle demand has dragged down battery demand, and some enterprises plan to reduce production. However, the demand for automobile starting batteries is in the peak season, supporting the operation rate of lead - acid battery enterprises [3][6][7] - Overall, affected by the change in LME position - holding system, the accelerated delivery of stocks on the LME has dragged down the lead price. However, due to environmental impacts in many places, the production cuts of secondary lead smelters have increased, and the demand remains resilient. The social inventory is maintained at a low level for the year, providing support for the lead price. It is expected that the short - term futures price will fluctuate weakly and steadily, and continuous attention should be paid to the changes in LME inventories [3][7] Summary by Directory Trading Data | Contract | December 12 | December 19 | Change | Unit | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | SHFE Lead | 17125 | 16880 | - 245 | Yuan/ton | | LME Lead | 1966 | 1984.5 | 18.5 | US dollars/ton | | Shanghai - London Ratio | 8.71 | 8.51 | - 0.20 | | | SHFE Inventory | 32227 | 27875 | - 4352 | Tons | | LME Inventory | 234750 | 258625 | 23875 | Tons | | Social Inventory | 2.05 | 2.05 | 0 | Ten thousand tons | | Spot Premium | - 75 | - 70 | 5 | Yuan/ton | [4] Market Review - Last week, the main contract of Shanghai lead futures changed to PB2602. The price hit the bottom and then rebounded. In the first half of the week, the increasing LME inventory dragged down the lead prices both at home and abroad. In the second half of the week, the inventory growth slowed down, and the futures price stabilized and weakly rebounded. It finally closed at 16880 yuan/ton, with a weekly decline of 1.55%. The LME lead price first declined and then rose, finally closing at 1984.5 US dollars/ton, with a weekly increase of 0.94% [5] - In the spot market, as of December 19, the price of Southern lead in Shanghai was reported at 16925 - 16950 yuan/ton, with a premium of 50 - 70 yuan/ton over the SHFE 2601 contract; the price of Jiangtong lead in Jiangsu and Zhejiang was reported at 16905 - 16925 yuan/ton, with a premium of 30 - 50 yuan/ton over the SHFE 2601 contract. After the Shanghai lead price hit the bottom and rebounded, holders sold their goods according to the market. Due to the end - of - year period, most holders actively cleared their inventories, resulting in less available spot goods. The inventory of refiner - delivered electrolytic lead also decreased significantly, and some quotes turned to discounts again. Downstream enterprises had mostly stocked up at low prices, and their inquiry enthusiasm weakened today, with only a few making purchases as needed [5] Industry News - As of the week ending December 19, the domestic lead concentrate processing fee was 300 yuan/metal ton, and the imported ore processing fee was - 135 US dollars/dry ton, with both averages remaining flat compared to the previous period [8] - Recently, the first batch of lead ingots from the 600,000 - ton/year lead - zinc smelting project of Xinjiang Huoshaoyun Lead - Zinc Mine, EPC - contracted by China ENFI Engineering Corporation, was officially launched. This project is the world's largest oxidized ore processing production line. After completion, it will have an annual production capacity of 560,000 tons of zinc ingots and 110,000 tons of lead ingots [8] - Morgan Stanley predicts that the average lead price in 2026 will be slightly higher than 2,000 US dollars per ton [8]
海外加速交仓,锌价承压震荡
Tong Guan Jin Yuan Qi Huo· 2025-12-22 02:18
锌周报 投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可【2015】84 号 李婷 从业资格号:F0297587 投资咨询号:Z0011509 黄蕾 从业资格号:F0307990 投资咨询号:Z0011692 高慧 2025 年 12 月 22 日 海外加速交仓 锌价承压震荡 核心观点及策略 上周沪锌主力期价承压回落。宏观面,美国 11 月非农数据 喜忧参半,通胀数据低于预期,且美联储官员释放鸽派信号, 降息预期略有提升。国内 11 月经济数据延续偏弱,市场期 待政策加码助力 26 年经济实现开门红。 从业资格号:F03099478 投资咨询号:Z0017785 王工建 从业资格号:F3084165 投资咨询号:Z0016301 赵凯熙 从业资格号:F03112296 投资咨询号:Z0021040 何天 从业资格号:F03120615 投资咨询号:Z0022965 风险因素:宏观风险扰动,炼厂减产低于预期 敬请参阅最后一页免责声明 1/ 8 基本面看,LME 将从 26 年 7 月实施持仓限额,LME 加速交仓, 库存回升至近 10 万吨,且 LME0-3 现货由前期高升水转为小 贴水,挤仓担忧快速降温,内外锌价均有回落。不过沪 ...
铁矿周报:市场情绪扰动,铁矿震荡为主-20251222
Tong Guan Jin Yuan Qi Huo· 2025-12-22 02:18
铁矿周报 铁矿震荡为主 核心观点及策略 投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可【2015】84 号 李婷 从业资格号:F0297587 投资咨询号:Z0011509 黄蕾 从业资格号:F0307990 投资咨询号:Z0011692 高慧 2025 年 12 月 22 日 市场情绪扰动 ⚫ 需求端:钢厂检修规模扩大,铁水产量延续回落态 势,目前铁水已经低于去年水平。上周247家钢厂高 炉开工率78.47%,环比上周减少0.16个百分点,同比 去年减少1.16个百分点,日均铁水产量 226.55万 吨,环比上周减少2.65万吨,同比去年减少2.86万 吨。 ⚫ 供应端:上周海外铁矿到港量与发运环比增加,均处 于历史同期高位水平,港口库存高位运行,供应压力 不减。上周全球铁矿石发运总3592.5万吨,环比增加 224.0万吨。库存方面,全国47个港口进口铁矿库存 16225.53万吨,环比增加114.06万吨;日均疏港量 328.23万吨,降5.94万吨。 ⚫ 总体上,供应端,上周海外铁矿到港量与发运环比增 加,均处于历史同期高位水平,港口库存高位运行, 供应压力不减。需求端,钢厂检修规模扩大,铁水产 量延续回落态势,目前铁 ...
钢材周报:终端延续弱势,期价震荡走势-20251222
Tong Guan Jin Yuan Qi Huo· 2025-12-22 02:18
钢材周报 2025 年 12 月 22 日 终端延续弱势 期价震荡走势 核心观点及策略 投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可【2015】84 号 李婷 从业资格号:F0297587 投资咨询号:Z0011509 黄蕾 从业资格号:F0307990 投资咨询号:Z0011692 高慧 从业资格号:F03099478 投资咨询号:Z0017785 王工建 从业资格号:F3084165 投资咨询号:Z0016301 钢材周报 一、交易数据 赵凯熙 从业资格号:F03112296 投资咨询号:Z0021040 何天 从业资格号:F03120615 投资咨询号:Z0022965 敬请参阅最后一页免责声明 1/9 ⚫ 宏观面:1-11月份,全国房地产开发投资78591亿元, 同比下降15.9%。房地产开发企业房屋施工面积656066 万平方米,同比下降9.6%。房屋新开工面积53457万平 方米,下降20.5%。房屋竣工面积39454万平方米,下降 18.0%。新建商品房销售面积78702万平方米,同比下降 7.8%。 ⚫ 基本面:上周螺纹产量182万吨,环比增加3万吨,表需 209万吨,增加6万吨,厂库140万吨,减少1万吨, ...
多重利空因素,棕榈油震荡偏弱
Tong Guan Jin Yuan Qi Huo· 2025-12-22 02:15
核心观点及策略 投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可【2015】84 号 棕榈油周报 2025 年 12 月 22 日 多重利空因素 棕榈油震荡偏弱 李婷 从业资格号:F0297587 投资咨询号:Z0011509 黄蕾 从业资格号:F0307990 投资咨询号:Z0011692 高慧 从业资格号:F03099478 投资咨询号:Z0017785 王工建 从业资格号:F3084165 投资咨询号:Z0016301 赵凯熙 从业资格号:F03112296 投资咨询号:Z0021040 何天 敬请参阅最后一页免责声明 1 / 9 ⚫ 上周,BMD马棕油主连跌112收于3906林吉特/吨,跌幅 2.79%;棕榈油05合约跌260收于8292元/吨,跌幅 3.04%;豆油05合约跌282收于7712元/吨,跌幅3.53%; 菜油05合约跌603收于8744元/吨,跌幅6.45%;CBOT豆 油主连跌2.24收于48.36美分/磅,跌幅4.43%;ICE油菜 籽活跃合约跌23.9收于594.5加元/吨,涨幅3.86%。 ⚫ 油脂整体走弱,菜油领跌油脂,主要是澳菜籽到港压 榨,后续供应预期增多;新年度全球油菜籽供应宽松, ICE ...
下游兑现去产能,工业硅反弹
Tong Guan Jin Yuan Qi Huo· 2025-12-22 02:15
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating The document does not mention the report industry investment rating. 2. Core Views of the Report - Last week, industrial silicon prices rebounded from a low level. The main reason was that the polysilicon industry entered the substantial stage of capacity reduction, the supply - demand structure of the silicon material market continued to improve, and China's industrial output growth showed signs of recovery. Technically, the main contract stabilized and rebounded rapidly after testing the 8300 level, and it is expected that the futures price of industrial silicon will continue the rebound trend [2]. 3. Summary by Directory Market Data | Contract | 12 - 19 | 12 - 12 | Change | Change Rate | Unit | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Industrial Silicon Main Contract | 8690.00 | 8390.00 | 300.00 | 3.58% | Yuan/ton | | Oxygen - containing 553 Spot | 9200.00 | 9200.00 | 0.00 | 0.00% | Yuan/ton | | Non - oxygen - containing 553 Spot | 9200.00 | 9200.00 | 0.00 | 0.00% | Yuan/ton | | 421 Spot | 9650.00 | 9650.00 | 0.00 | 0.00% | Yuan/ton | | 3303 Spot | 10350.00 | 10350.00 | 0.00 | 0.00% | Yuan/ton | | Organic Silicon DMC Spot | 13600.00 | 13600.00 | 0.00 | 0.00% | Yuan/ton | | Polysilicon Dense Material Spot | 52.00 | 52.00 | 0.00 | 0.00% | Yuan/ton | | Industrial Silicon Social Inventory | 55.3 | 56.1 | - 0.8 | - 1.43% | Ten thousand tons | [3] Market Analysis and Outlook - Supply side: Xinjiang's operating rate remained at a relatively high level of 88%, the operating rate in the southwest was weak during the dry season, and the production centers in Inner Mongolia and Gansu shifted downwards, with the supply side continuing to shrink. - Demand side: Leading polysilicon manufacturers planned to significantly adjust spot prices, and the market mainly executed historical orders. Silicon wafer prices approached the cash cost line, and the phenomenon of low - price dumping by second - and third - tier enterprises decreased significantly. Due to the recent sharp increase in silver prices, the cost pressure of battery cells climbed, and leading enterprises signaled price increases. At the component end, due to the small number of distributed project starts, leading enterprises' plans to raise prices were resisted by downstream, and the terminal market was sensitive to prices. - Inventory: Last week, the social inventory of industrial silicon rose to 561,000 tons, and the center of the industrial silicon spot market shifted downwards due to the decline in futures prices [2][5][9]. Industry News - On February 18, the Guangzhou Futures Exchange announced that as of December 22, 2025, the minimum opening order quantity for trading instructions of polysilicon futures contracts PS2601 - PS2612 was adjusted from 1 lot to 5 lots, while the minimum closing order quantity remained 1 lot [10]. - At the 2025 Photovoltaic Industry Annual Conference on December 18, the China Photovoltaic Industry Association did not predict the next - year's new installed capacity. Analysts predicted that in 2026, under the high - base effect, the new installed capacity in the first half of the year would face great pressure, and there was a high probability of the first negative growth in domestic installed capacity since the photovoltaic grid - parity era. Under conservative/neutral/optimistic scenarios, the new installed capacity in 2026 was expected to be 185/225/275GW. If the new installed capacity in 2025 was assumed to be 285GW, the corresponding year - on - year growth rates would be - 35%/ - 21%/ - 4%. Some institutions predicted that if the industry restored reasonable profitability, the unit price of integrated components might rise to about 0.9 - 1 yuan per watt [11]. Related Charts The report provides charts on industrial silicon production, exports, domestic social inventory, Guangzhou Futures Exchange warehouse receipt inventory, production of main producing areas, organic silicon DMC production, polysilicon production, and spot prices of industrial silicon and related products, but no specific data analysis in the text is provided for these charts [12][18][19].