1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Overseas, the interest - rate cut trading continues. The probability of a 50 - BP interest rate cut by the Fed in September has risen, the US stock market has reached a new high, the 10 - year US Treasury yield has declined, the US dollar index has fallen, the gold price has risen, the copper price has declined, and the oil price has dropped to a more than two - month low. Domestically, the July financial data is cold, the A - share market has broken through the previous high, the bond market has recovered, and the stock market may enter a shock phase after the breakthrough, while the bond market opportunities may be driven by the central bank's bond - buying restart and weakening fundamentals [2][3] - For precious metals, gold and silver continue to rise. The market is digesting the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation, and silver is expected to outperform gold. Attention should be paid to the US inflation data [4] - Regarding copper, the US dollar is weak, and the copper price is in a strong shock. The market is digesting the positive factors, and the copper price is expected to remain strong in the context of the weak US dollar [6][7] - For aluminum, the aluminum price is oscillating. The market is waiting for the change in social inventory, and the consumption peak - off - peak switch is approaching [8] - In the case of alumina, the price is oscillating. The mine - end disturbance has not further fermented, and the price is expected to be supported and remain oscillating [9][10] - For zinc, the zinc price is in an oscillating adjustment. The market is digesting the interest - rate cut expectation, and the short - term rebound driving force is weakening [11] - Regarding lead, the lead price adjustment space is limited. The consumption peak season is under - expected, and the supply - side pressure is also weakening [12][13] - For tin, the tin price is in a high - level adjustment. The market has digested the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation, and the supply and demand are slightly in surplus [14][15] - In the case of industrial silicon, the price is falling. The anti - involution sentiment fluctuates, and the social inventory has increased [16][17] - For lithium carbonate, the lithium price is in a wide - range shock. There are contradictions in the market game, and the terminal demand needs to be observed [18][19] - Regarding nickel, the nickel price is回调. The technical pressure is strong, and the fundamental situation is weak [20][21] - For crude oil, the oil price is weakening. The EIA has significantly raised the surplus expectation, and the short - term focus is on the US - Russia summit [22] - In the case of steel products, the steel price is oscillating. The social financing increment in the first seven months is high, and the supply - demand is expected to be weak [23] - For iron ore, the iron ore price is oscillating. The demand is in a weak season, and the supply pressure is not large [24][25] - Regarding bean and rapeseed meal, the meal price may be oscillating strongly. The US soybean export data is expected to be good, and the domestic supply in the distant end is expected to be tight [26][27] - For palm oil, the palm oil price may be oscillating strongly. Malaysia has raised the reference price and export tax, and attention should be paid to production and export demand [28][29] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Metal Main Variety Trading Data - **Copper**: SHFE copper closed at 79380 yuan/ton, up 360 yuan; LME copper closed at 9777 dollars/ton, down 63 dollars. The SHFE copper warehouse receipt remained unchanged, and the LME inventory increased by 875 tons [30][32] - **Aluminum**: SHFE aluminum closed at 20790 yuan/ton, up 55 yuan; LME aluminum closed at 2609 dollars/ton, down 14 dollars. The SHFE aluminum warehouse receipt increased by 6406 tons, and the LME inventory increased by 1525 tons [30][35] - **Alumina**: The SHFE alumina futures contract closed at 3230 yuan/ton, down 78 yuan. The national average spot price was 3270 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan. The SHFE warehouse inventory increased by 4806 tons [30][35] - **Zinc**: SHFE zinc closed at 22600 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan; LME zinc closed at 2812 dollars/ton, down 37 dollars. The SHFE zinc warehouse receipt increased by 424 tons, and the LME inventory decreased by 1075 tons [30][35] - **Lead**: SHFE lead closed at 16930 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan; LME lead closed at 1988 dollars/ton, down 28 dollars. The SHFE lead warehouse receipt increased by 799 tons, and the LME inventory decreased by 25 tons [30][35] - **Nickel**: SHFE nickel closed at 122340 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan; LME nickel closed at 15240 dollars/ton, down 120 dollars. The SHFE nickel warehouse receipt decreased by 115 tons, and the LME inventory decreased by 648 tons [30][35] - **Tin**: SHFE tin closed at 269820 yuan/ton, down 380 yuan; LME tin closed at 33700 dollars/ton, down 70 dollars. The SHFE tin warehouse receipt increased by 33 tons, and the LME inventory increased by 15 tons [30][35] - **Precious Metals**: COMEX gold closed at 3407.00 dollars/ounce, up 7.40 dollars; SHFE silver closed at 9300.00 yuan/kg, up 113.00 yuan; COMEX silver closed at 38.55 dollars/ounce, up 0.61 dollars [30] 3.2 Industrial Data Perspective - **Copper**: The SHFE copper main contract price increased by 360 yuan from August 12th to August 13th, the LME copper price decreased by 63 dollars. The SHFE copper warehouse receipt remained unchanged, and the LME inventory increased by 875 tons. The spot price increased by 320 yuan, and the LME warehouse receipt increased by 925 tons [32] - **Nickel**: The SHFE nickel main contract price decreased by 100 yuan from August 12th to August 13th, the LME nickel price decreased by 120 dollars. The SHFE nickel warehouse receipt decreased by 115 tons, and the LME inventory decreased by 648 tons [32][35]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating The provided report does not mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core Views of the Report - The weakening of the US CPI has boosted the interest - rate cut trading, and the domestic consumer loan interest subsidy has been implemented. In the overseas market, inflation is mild, and the probability of a September interest - rate cut has risen to 95%. In the domestic market, consumption - end incremental policies have been introduced, but the policy strength is moderately weak [2][3]. - The 7 - month CPI data in the US has consolidated the market's expectation of a September interest - rate cut. However, the optimistic global trade sentiment has boosted investors' confidence, and the market risk preference is rising. It is expected that the silver price trend will continue to be stronger than the gold price [4][5]. - The expectation of monetary policy easing has been strengthened, and the copper price has oscillated upwards. The downstream has entered a new replenishment cycle, and the LME inventory accumulation rate has slowed down [6]. - The mild inflation in the US has released an interest - rate cut signal, and the progress of Sino - US economic and trade negotiations has boosted the macro - sentiment. The aluminum price is temporarily oscillating with a positive bias, but the electrolytic aluminum is expected to continue to accumulate inventory [8][9]. - The news of the adjustment of the mineral resource registration authority in Shanxi has led to a sudden upgrade of the expectation of a shortage of domestic mines, and the alumina futures have strongly rebounded. However, the actual impact on the current domestic ore supply is limited [10]. - The mild inflation has consolidated the expectation of an interest - rate cut, and the zinc price is oscillating with a positive bias. The low - inventory and high - concentration of warehouse receipts still support the zinc price [11]. - The market sentiment has slightly improved, and the lead price has oscillated with a positive bias following the non - ferrous metal sector. However, the peak consumption season is less than expected, and there is resistance at the integer - level mark [12][13]. - The expectation of an interest - rate cut has supported the tin price, and the center of the tin price has risen. The tin price is oscillating with a positive bias following the non - ferrous metal sector, and the market shows an external - strong and internal - weak trend [14]. - The industrial silicon is in the process of capacity clearance and is strongly oscillating. The supply has not significantly expanded, and the demand is weak. The social inventory has increased, and the spot market price has slightly declined [15][16]. - The bullish sentiment in the lithium market has cooled, and the lithium price is testing the support of the window. The supply and demand in the fundamentals are both strong, and the lithium price is in a wide - range oscillation [17][18]. - The nickel price is oscillating. The market's expectation of an interest - rate cut in September is rising, and attention should be paid to the resistance at the previous high [19][20]. - The oil price is oscillating. The market is waiting for the results of the Putin - Trump meeting. The fundamentals of the oil market are bearish in the medium - term [21]. - The steel price is oscillating. The spot market transactions are stable, and the inventory pressure is not large due to the expected production restrictions in the north [22][23]. - The iron ore price is oscillating. The port inventory has increased, and the supply pressure has been relieved due to the seasonal decline in shipments from mainstream mines [24]. - The soybean meal and rapeseed meal prices may oscillate with a positive bias. The USDA report is bullish, and the anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed has ignited the sentiment in the rapeseed market [25][26][27]. - The palm oil price may oscillate with a positive bias. The export demand for Malaysian palm oil in early August has increased, and the domestic rapeseed oil has led the rise in the oil market [28][29]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Metal Main Variety Trading Data - **Copper**: SHFE copper closed at 79020 yuan/ton with no change; LME copper closed at 9840 dollars/ton, up 1.17% [30]. - **Aluminum**: SHFE aluminum closed at 20735 yuan/ton, up 0.17%; LME aluminum closed at 2623 dollars/ton, up 1.41% [30]. - **Alumina**: The futures of alumina closed at 3308 yuan/ton, up 4.16% [10][30]. - **Zinc**: SHFE zinc closed at 22630 yuan/ton, up 0.18%; LME zinc closed at 2848 dollars/ton, up 1.42% [30]. - **Lead**: SHFE lead closed at 16915 yuan/ton, up 0.18%; LME lead closed at 2016 dollars/ton, up 0.93% [30]. - **Nickel**: SHFE nickel closed at 122440 yuan/ton, up 0.25%; LME nickel closed at 15360 dollars/ton, up 0.23% [30]. - **Tin**: SHFE tin closed at 270200 yuan/ton, up 0.68%; LME tin closed at 33770 dollars/ton, up 0.16% [30]. - **Precious Metals**: COMEX gold closed at 3399.60 dollars/ounce, down 0.15%; COMEX silver closed at 37.94 dollars/ounce, up 0.40% [4][30]. - **Steel Products**: SHFE rebar closed at 3258 yuan/ton, up 0.25%; SHFE hot - rolled coil closed at 3484 yuan/ton, up 0.55% [30]. - **Iron Ore**: DCE iron ore closed at 801.0 yuan/ton, up 1.52% [30]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: DCE coking coal closed at 1313.0 yuan/ton, up 4.54%; DCE coke closed at 1812.0 yuan/ton, up 2.98% [30]. - **Industrial Silicon**: GFEX industrial silicon closed at 8840.0 yuan/ton, down 1.78% [30]. - **Soybean and Meal**: CBOT soybeans closed at 1032.3 yuan/ton, up 2.18%; DCE soybean meal closed at 3091.0 yuan/ton, up 0.62%; CZCE rapeseed meal closed at 2653.0 yuan/ton, down 2.61% [30]. 3.2 Industrial Data Perspective - **Copper**: The SHFE copper main contract price remained unchanged at 79020 yuan/ton on August 12. The LME copper price increased by 113.5 dollars/ton to 9840 dollars/ton. The SHFE warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 26296, and the LME inventory decreased by 700 tons to 155000 tons [31]. - **Nickel**: The SHFE nickel main contract price increased by 310 yuan/ton to 122440 yuan/ton on August 12. The LME nickel price increased by 35 dollars/ton to 15360 dollars/ton. The SHFE warehouse receipts decreased by 30 to 20693, and the LME inventory increased by 450 tons to 211746 tons [31]. - **Zinc**: The SHFE zinc main contract price increased by 40 yuan/ton to 22630 yuan/ton on August 12. The LME zinc price increased by 40 dollars/ton to 2848 dollars/ton. The SHFE warehouse receipts increased by 274 to 15768, and the LME inventory decreased by 875 tons to 79550 tons [34]. - **Lead**: The SHFE lead main contract price increased by 30 yuan/ton to 16915 yuan/ton on August 12. The LME lead price increased by 18.5 dollars/ton to 2016 dollars/ton. The SHFE warehouse receipts increased by 1108 to 5874, and the LME inventory decreased by 3550 tons to 262250 tons [34]. - **Aluminum**: The SHFE aluminum continuous - three contract price increased by 5 yuan/ton to 20660 yuan/ton on August 12. The LME aluminum price increased by 36.5 dollars/ton to 2622.5 dollars/ton. The SHFE warehouse receipts increased by 378 to 48710, and the LME inventory increased by 1250 tons to 477100 tons [34]. - **Alumina**: The SHFE alumina main contract price increased by 126 yuan/ton to 3308 yuan/ton on August 12. The national alumina spot average price decreased by 1 yuan/ton to 3273 yuan/ton. The SHFE warehouse inventory increased by 7801 tons to 38182 [34]. - **Tin**: The SHFE tin main contract price increased by 1820 yuan/ton to 270200 yuan/ton on August 12. The LME tin price increased by 55 dollars/ton to 33770 dollars/ton. The SHFE warehouse receipts increased by 71 to 7397, and the LME inventory increased by 15 tons to 1765 tons [34]. - **Precious Metals**: The SHFE gold price remained unchanged at 776.04 yuan/gram, and the SHFE silver price remained unchanged at 9187.00 yuan/kilogram. The COMEX gold price remained unchanged at 3399.00 dollars/ounce, and the COMEX silver price remained unchanged at 38.002 dollars/ounce [34]. - **Rebar**: The rebar main contract price increased by 8 yuan/ton to 3258 yuan/ton on August 12. The Shanghai spot price increased by 10 yuan/ton to 3370 yuan/ton [36]. - **Iron Ore**: The iron ore main contract price increased by 12.0 yuan/ton to 801.0 yuan/ton on August 12. The Rizhao Port PB powder price increased by 9 yuan/ton to 787 yuan/ton [36]. - **Coke and Coking Coal**: The coke main contract price increased by 52.5 yuan/ton to 1812.0 yuan/ton on August 12. The coking coal main contract price increased by 57.0 yuan/ton to 1313.0 yuan/ton [36]. - **Carbonate Lithium**: The carbonate lithium main contract price increased by 0.71 to 8.61 on August 12. The electric - carbon spot price increased by 0.30 to 7.52, and the industrial - carbon spot price increased by 0.30 to 7.31 [36]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The industrial silicon main contract price decreased by 160.00 yuan/ton to 8840.0 yuan/ton on August 12. The average price of East China oxygen - passing 553 remained unchanged at 9400 yuan/ton [36]. - **Soybean and Meal**: The CBOT soybean main contract price increased by 22.00 to 1032.25 on August 12. The DCE soybean meal main contract price increased by 19 to 3091, and the CZCE rapeseed meal main contract price decreased by 71 to 2653 [36].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Overseas, there is a complex situation with tariff extensions, an expanded list of Fed Chair candidates, and expectations of a cease - fire in the Russia - Ukraine conflict, causing risk appetite to fluctuate. Attention is on the US CPI data to judge the Fed's interest - rate cut path. In China, the "anti - involution" sentiment on the supply side has restarted, the new energy market has been boosted, the stock market has risen with heavy trading volume, and the bond market has adjusted significantly. The stock market may turn to a volatile trend after breaking through the high point, and the bond market opportunities may be catalyzed by the central bank's bond - buying and weakening fundamentals [2][3]. - For precious metals, with the risk of US gold import tariffs removed and the new suspension of tariffs between China and the US, the short - term prices of gold and silver are expected to continue to correct [4]. - For copper, although the short - term price is under pressure due to the partial resumption of a Chilean mine and a slight rebound in the US dollar index, it is expected to turn stronger after the adjustment [5][6]. - For aluminum, the market continues to be in a state of game. With the increase in inventory and the high price affecting downstream procurement, but a warm macro - atmosphere, the price will maintain a volatile trend [7][8]. - For alumina, the short - term price is volatile, and the long - term pressure may increase due to the expected increase in supply [9][10]. - For zinc, the short - term price is expected to be mainly volatile, waiting for the guidance of US inflation data [11]. - For lead, due to stable supply, limited improvement in consumption, and approaching contract delivery, the price is expected to maintain a narrow - range oscillation [12]. - For tin, the short - term prices at home and abroad are expected to be firm, but caution is needed due to the upcoming US inflation data [13][14]. - For industrial silicon, with the fermentation of the "anti - involution" sentiment, the short - term futures price is expected to maintain a strong and volatile trend [15][16]. - For lithium carbonate, with the realization of resource disturbances and the potential for further escalation, the price can be cautiously bullish, but attention should be paid to the potential pressure from Australian mines [17]. - For nickel, although the short - term price is boosted by the warming macro - expectations, the fundamentals are still weak, and attention should be paid to the pressure at the previous high [18]. - For crude oil, the short - term price is volatile, waiting for the result of the US - Russia summit meeting [19]. - For steel products, with continuous inventory accumulation, the price is expected to maintain a volatile and rebound trend due to the upcoming supply contraction from the military parade production restrictions [20]. - For iron ore, with a significant decrease in arrivals and stable demand, the price is expected to be volatile [21][22]. - For soybean and rapeseed meal, due to the uncertainty of policies and the possible impact of precipitation on soybean growth, the short - term price of soybean meal may be in a wide - range oscillation [23][24]. - For palm oil, with the inventory increase lower than expected and strong export demand, the short - term price is expected to be volatile and strong [25][26]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Metal Main Varieties Yesterday's Trading Data - The trading data of various metal futures contracts, including closing prices, price changes, price change percentages, total trading volumes, total open interests, and price units, are presented. For example, SHFE copper closed at 79020 yuan/ton, up 530 yuan with a 0.68% increase; COMEX gold closed at 3393.70 dollars/ounce, down 64.50 dollars with a 1.87% decrease [27]. 3.2 Industrial Data Perspective - The data of copper, nickel, zinc, lead, aluminum, alumina, tin, precious metals, steel products, iron ore, coke, coal, lithium carbonate, industrial silicon, and soybean meal are provided, including price changes, inventory changes, and basis changes over different time periods. For example, for copper, the SHFE copper main contract price increased from 78490 yuan/ton on August 8th to 79020 yuan/ton on August 11th, and the LME copper inventory decreased from 155850 tons to 155700 tons [28][31][33].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Last week, the BMD Malaysian palm oil main contract rose 9 to close at 4,254 ringgit/ton, a 0.21% increase; the palm oil 09 contract rose 70 to close at 8,980 yuan/ton, a 0.79% increase; the soybean oil 09 contract rose 126 to close at 8,400 yuan/ton, a 1.52% increase; the rapeseed oil 09 contract rose 50 to close at 9,574 yuan/ton, a 0.52% increase; the CBOT US soybean oil main contract fell 1.47 to close at 52.43 cents/pound, a 2.73% decrease; the ICE canola active contract fell 12.9 to close at 670 Canadian dollars/ton, a 1.89% decrease [3]. - The domestic oil and fat sector continued to fluctuate. Palm oil was still in the process of oscillatory adjustment. On one hand, there was long - term support from the biodiesel policy. On the other hand, market institutions expected the Malaysian palm oil inventory in July to increase to 225,000 tons, suppressing short - term price space. Indian palm oil imports decreased in July, and due to the cost - effectiveness advantage, soybean oil substitution imports increased, with some coming from China. Additionally, domestic soybean oil trading volume increased, and the expectation of tight soybean supply in the distant future supported soybean oil, making it relatively strong [3][5]. - Macroscopically, the leaders of the US and Russia will meet in Alaska on the 15th to seek a cease - fire agreement in the Russia - Ukraine conflict, but the process is expected to be tortuous. The US dollar index is oscillating at a relatively low level; oil prices dropped significantly during the week, mainly because OPEC+ is expected to increase production, tariffs affect demand prospects, and there may be a cease - fire in the Russia - Ukraine conflict. Fundamentally, waiting for the release of today's MPOB report, the abundant supply of Malaysian palm oil suppresses the upside space, while the increasing long - term demand for biodiesel provides support. In the short term, palm oil may oscillate and adjust [3][9]. Group 3: Summary by Directory Market Data - The CBOT soybean oil main contract fell from 53.9 cents/pound to 52.43 cents/pound, a decrease of 1.47 cents/pound and a 2.73% decline; the BMD Malaysian palm oil main contract rose from 4,245 ringgit/ton to 4,254 ringgit/ton, an increase of 9 ringgit/ton and a 0.21% increase; the DCE palm oil 09 contract rose from 8,910 yuan/ton to 8,980 yuan/ton, an increase of 70 yuan/ton and a 0.79% increase; the DCE soybean oil 09 contract rose from 8,274 yuan/ton to 8,400 yuan/ton, an increase of 126 yuan/ton and a 1.52% increase; the CZCE rapeseed oil 09 contract rose from 9,524 yuan/ton to 9,574 yuan/ton, an increase of 50 yuan/ton and a 0.52% increase [3][4][5]. Market Analysis and Outlook - The domestic oil and fat market continued to fluctuate, with palm oil in an adjustment phase due to long - term biodiesel policy support and the expectation of increased Malaysian palm oil inventory in July. Indian palm oil imports decreased in July, and soybean oil substitution imports increased. Domestic soybean oil trading volume increased, and the expectation of tight soybean supply in the future supported soybean oil [3][5]. - According to Reuters survey, it is expected that the Malaysian palm oil inventory in July 2025 will be 2.25 million tons, a 10.8% month - on - month increase; production is expected to be 1.83 million tons, an 8% month - on - month increase; exports are expected to be 1.3 million tons, a 3.2% month - on - month increase [6]. - From August 1 - 5, 2025, Malaysian palm oil yield per unit decreased by 19.32% month - on - month, oil extraction rate increased by 0.39% month - on - month, and production decreased by 17.27% month - on - month. In July 2025, Malaysian palm oil production increased by 9.01%, with different trends in different regions [6]. - Different institutions' data on Malaysian palm oil exports in July 2025 showed a decline compared to the previous month [7]. - Indian palm oil imports in July 2025 decreased by 10% to 858,000 tons, while soybean oil imports increased by 38% to 495,000 tons, reaching a three - year high. Sunflower oil imports decreased by 7% to 201,000 tons. Total edible oil imports increased by 1.5% to 1.53 million tons, the highest level since November last year [8]. - The estimated palm oil production in Malaysia in the 2024/25 season is adjusted up to 19.2 million tons, with an estimated range of 18.7 - 19.7 million tons, a 1% increase from the previous estimate. The estimated palm oil production in Indonesia in the 2024/25 season is 48.8 million tons, the same as the previous estimate, with an estimated range of 43.8 - 53.8 million tons [8]. - As of the week of August 1, 2025, the total inventory of the three major oils in key domestic regions was 2.3611 million tons, a decrease of 700 tons from the previous week and an increase of 234,300 tons from the same period last year. Among them, soybean oil inventory was 1.1174 million tons, an increase of 29,300 tons from the previous week and a decrease of 8,600 tons from the same period last year; palm oil inventory was 582,200 tons, a decrease of 33,300 tons from the previous week and an increase of 3,400 tons from the same period last year; rapeseed oil inventory was 661,500 tons, an increase of 3,300 tons from the previous week and an increase of 239,500 tons from the same period last year [9]. - As of the week of August 8, 2025, the average daily trading volume of soybean oil in key domestic regions was 30,880 tons, compared with 49,300 tons in the previous week; the average daily trading volume of palm oil was 437 tons, compared with 526 tons in the previous week [9]. Industry News - As of June 30 this year, 5.03 million hectares or 89.6% of Malaysia's oil palm plantation area has obtained the Malaysian Sustainable Palm Oil (MSPO) certification [10]. - The Malaysian government plans to increase the allocation for the palm oil replanting project to 1.4 billion ringgit (about $331 million) from 2026 to 2030 to accelerate the national replanting process, especially to support small - scale farmers. In 2024, Malaysia's national replanting rate was only 2%, far below the government's target of 4%. This year, the government has provided 100 million ringgit (about $24 million) in subsidy funds to encourage small - scale farmers to participate in replanting [10]. - The estimated palm oil production in Thailand in the 2024/25 season is 3.52 million tons, the same as the previous estimate, with an estimated range of 3.02 - 4.02 million tons. In May 2025, Thailand's palm oil production increased to 520,000 tons, a 23.5% increase from April. The cumulative production in the first five months of 2025 reached 1.52 million tons, a 9.6% increase from the same period in 2024 [11]. - The Nigerian vice - president revealed that the country's president has ordered the planting of 100 million oil palm trees and plans to revitalize the cocoa industry as part of economic diversification and agricultural productivity improvement [11]. - Malaysia's palm oil plantation giant, Sime Darby Plantation Group, expects the price of crude palm oil to stabilize at around 4,000 ringgit per ton (about $946.52) for the rest of this year, supported by Indonesia's biodiesel mandatory blending policy [12]. Relevant Charts - The report includes charts such as the trend of the Malaysian palm oil main contract, the US soybean oil main contract, the futures price index trends of the three major oils, the spot price trends of palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil, the basis of soybean oil and palm oil, the price spreads between different oils, the import profit of palm oil, and the monthly production, export, and inventory data of Malaysian and Indonesian palm oil, as well as the commercial inventory data of domestic oils [13][14][15]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Macroeconomic factors include the joint issuance of the "Guiding Opinions on Financial Support for New - type Industrialization" by seven departments such as the central bank, which supports mining enterprises to increase reserves and production of important minerals. In July, China exported 9.836 million tons of steel, and from January to July, the cumulative steel exports were 67.983 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 11.4% [1][4]. - Fundamental data shows that last week, the output of rebar was 21.21 million tons, an increase of 100,000 tons month - on - month, with apparent demand of 2.11 million tons (an increase of 70,000 tons), factory inventory of 1.68 million tons (an increase of 60,000 tons), social inventory of 3.88 million tons (an increase of 40,000 tons), and total inventory of 5.57 million tons (an increase of 100,000 tons). The output of hot - rolled coils was 3.15 million tons, a decrease of 80,000 tons, with factory inventory of 780,000 tons (a decrease of 10,000 tons), social inventory of 2.79 million tons (an increase of 100,000 tons), total inventory of 3.57 million tons (an increase of 90,000 tons), and apparent demand of 3.06 million tons (a decrease of 140,000 tons) [1][4]. - Overall, last week's industrial data was weak, with a slight increase in production, a decline in apparent demand, and accelerated inventory accumulation. Due to the expected military parade production restrictions in the north in the middle of the month, the expectation of supply contraction has increased, and the inventory pressure is generally not large. It is expected that the futures price will maintain a volatile trend [1][4][5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Transaction Data | Contract | Closing Price | Change | Change Percentage (%) | Total Trading Volume (Lots) | Total Open Interest (Lots) | Price Unit | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | SHFE Rebar | 3213 | 10 | 0.31 | 9240311 | 2947936 | Yuan/ton | | SHFE Hot - rolled Coil | 3428 | 27 | 0.79 | 3118646 | 1428587 | Yuan/ton | | DCE Iron Ore | 790.0 | 7.0 | 0.89 | 869369 | 335365 | Yuan/ton | | DCE Coking Coal | 1227.0 | 134.5 | 12.31 | 16090961 | 915031 | Yuan/ton | | DCE Coke | 1653.5 | 68.5 | 4.32 | 230503 | 53400 | Yuan/ton | [2] 3.2 Market Review - Last week, steel futures showed a volatile trend, with flat macro news and narrowed market fluctuations. In the spot market, the price of Tangshan billet was 3070 (+10) Yuan/ton, the Shanghai rebar quote was 3340 (-20) Yuan/ton, and the Shanghai hot - rolled coil was 3450 (+40) Yuan/ton [4]. - The macro and fundamental data are consistent with the core views, and it is expected that the futures price will maintain a volatile trend [4][5]. 3.3 Industry News - The central bank and other seven departments jointly issued the "Guiding Opinions on Financial Support for New - type Industrialization" to support the development of the mining industry and increase the supply guarantee capacity of strategic resources [6][7]. - The US non - farm payrolls in July increased by 73,000, lower than the expected 104,000, and the data hit a 9 - month low. After the data was released, President Trump criticized Powell and called for a rate cut [10]. - In July, China exported 9.836 million tons of steel, and from January to July, the cumulative steel exports were 67.983 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 11.4% [1][4][10]. - In July, China's total value of goods trade imports and exports was 3.91 trillion Yuan, a year - on - year increase of 6.7%. Exports were 2.31 trillion Yuan, an increase of 8%, and imports were 1.6 trillion Yuan, an increase of 4.8%. In the first seven months, the total value of goods trade imports and exports was 25.7 trillion Yuan, a year - on - year increase of 3.5% [10]. - From August 16th to 25th, Tangshan's independent steel rolling enterprises may be shut down at any time according to weather conditions, and they must be shut down from August 25th to September 3rd. If the shutdown and production restriction measures are implemented, the daily output of 35 billet - rolling section steel enterprises in Tangshan will be affected by about 90,000 tons [10]. 3.4 Relevant Charts - The report provides multiple charts including the futures and spread trends of rebar and hot - rolled coils, basis trends, spot regional spread trends, steel mill profit trends, blast furnace operating rates, steel production, inventory, and apparent consumption trends from 2021 - 2025 [9][11][19][28][32] etc.

Group 1: Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report Group 2: Core Views - The macro - situation shows that the US tariff policies cause disruptions in supply chains, labor data weakens, and the risk of stagflation rises. The market's expectation of the Fed's interest - rate cut in September is increasing, but the tariff policies may drag down global consumption growth. [3] - In terms of fundamentals, overseas climate disturbances have weakened, and the supply of nickel ore from the Philippines and Indonesia has increased. The nickel sulfate market is still hot, but the pure nickel market is cold, and the demand for stainless steel is limited. [3] - In the later stage, due to the repeated macro - expectations, nickel prices may fluctuate. There is a game between the increasing expectation of interest - rate cuts and the weakening demand. The industry remains relatively stable, but the demand in major consumption areas lacks growth expectations, and the fundamentals are weakly improved. [3] Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Market Data - SHFE nickel price increased from 120,630 yuan/ton on August 4, 2025, to 121,180 yuan/ton on August 8, 2025, up 550 yuan/ton. LME nickel price rose from 15,066 dollars/ton to 15,156 dollars/ton, up 90 dollars/ton. [5] - LME nickel inventory increased by 3,150 tons to 212,232 tons, while SHFE nickel inventory decreased by 549 tons to 20,621 tons. [5] 2. Market Review - **Macro - level**: US labor market shows signs of weakness, and the risk of stagflation is discussed again. Trump's tariff policies continue, and trade disputes are hard to calm down. [6] - **Nickel ore**: The supply of nickel ore from the Philippines and Indonesia is increasing, but the price of nickel ore is relatively firm. There is a strong expectation of price reduction at the ore end. [6] - **Pure nickel**: Domestic monthly production capacity decreased slightly in July, but the smelter's production plan increased slightly. The export of domestic pure nickel decreased, and the inventory pressure increased. [7] - **Nickel iron**: The price of high - nickel pig iron increased. The production of nickel pig iron in China decreased slightly in July, and the import from Indonesia increased significantly. The inventory of nickel iron is at a high level, and the price of nickel iron is under pressure. [8][9] - **Nickel sulfate**: The price of nickel sulfate increased. The production of nickel sulfate and ternary materials increased in July, and the inventory of nickel sulfate decreased. [9] - **New energy**: The retail sales of new - energy vehicles in July decreased month - on - month, and the year - on - year growth rate dropped significantly. The price competition among car companies has improved, but the market demand is limited. [9] - **Inventory**: The total inventory of pure nickel in six locations decreased slightly, SHFE inventory decreased, and LME inventory increased. The total inventory of the two major exchanges increased. [10] 3. Industry News - Indonesia announced the benchmark price of nickel ore for domestic trade in August (Phase I), which increased by about 0.69% compared with July (Phase II). [12] - LME cancelled the decision to suspend the delivery of AMBATOVY nickel beans. [12] - In July 2025, the monthly nickel output of GEM's Indonesian nickel project exceeded 10,000 tons. [12] - The Indonesian government is promoting new regulations to encourage the transition from lithium - ion batteries to nickel - based batteries, and has cooperated with some enterprises. [12] - Medallion Metals acquired the 100% legal and beneficial rights and interests of the Forrestania nickel project. [12]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Last week, copper prices stabilized and rebounded due to the significant increase in the market's expectation of a Fed rate cut in September, the normalization of the global copper supply chain after the premium issue of US copper tariffs subsided, and the clear tone of China's anti - involution and stable - growth policies boosting the demand in the non - ferrous metal market. The fact that major non - US economies did not retaliate against the US also slightly improved the global economic growth outlook. Fundamentally, the tight balance of global refined copper persists, with weak inventory accumulation during the domestic off - season and the near - month structure turning to flat water [2][8]. - Overall, after the implementation of reciprocal tariffs, major non - US economies did not retaliate against the US. The market is optimistic about the Fed's rate cut in September. China's anti - involution and stable - growth policies will boost the non - ferrous metal market demand and support the domestic economic base. Both internal and external macro factors are favorable for copper prices. Fundamentally, overseas mine supply remains tight, domestic inventory accumulation during the off - season is limited, and the release of global refined copper production capacity is slow. Copper prices are expected to enter a volatile and slightly upward trend in the short term [3][11]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Data - Price Changes: From August 1st to August 8th, LME copper rose from $9,633/ton to $9,768/ton, a 1.40% increase; COMEX copper rose from 444.3 cents/pound to 448.5 cents/pound, a 0.95% increase; SHFE copper rose from 78,400 yuan/ton to 78,490 yuan/ton, a 0.11% increase; international copper rose from 69,530 yuan/ton to 69,650 yuan/ton, a 0.17% increase. The Shanghai - London ratio decreased from 8.14 to 8.04, and the LME spot premium/discount decreased from - $49.25/ton to - $69.55/ton, a 41.22% change. The Shanghai spot premium/discount decreased from 175 yuan/ton to 120 yuan/ton [4]. - Inventory Changes: As of August 8th, the total inventory of LME, COMEX, SHFE, and Shanghai Bonded Area increased to 577,405 tons, a 5.18% increase from August 1st. LME inventory increased by 14,100 tons (9.95%), COMEX inventory increased by 4,459 short tons (1.72%), SHFE inventory increased by 9,390 tons (12.95%), and Shanghai Bonded Area inventory increased by 500 tons (0.67%) [7]. 2. Market Analysis and Outlook - Price Rebound Reasons: The significant increase in the Fed's rate - cut expectation in September, the normalization of the global copper supply chain, China's policies boosting demand, and the improved global economic growth outlook due to no retaliation from major economies against the US all contributed to the copper price rebound. Fundamentally, the tight balance of global refined copper persists, with weak domestic inventory accumulation during the off - season [8]. - Inventory Situation: As of August 8th, the total global inventory increased to 577,400 tons. LME copper inventory increase led to the LME0 - 3 turning to a contango structure, and the cancelled warrant ratio slightly decreased to 7.1%. SHFE inventory increased by 9,000 tons, and Shanghai Bonded Area inventory was basically flat. The Yangshan copper bill of lading premium fell to around $50. Overseas supplies flowed back to LME Asian warehouses and some entered China, increasing imports. The Shanghai - London ratio decreased to 8.04 due to the short - term depreciation of the US dollar after the rate - cut expectation increased [8]. - Macroeconomic Situation: In the US, inflation expectations increased, credit access became more difficult, but the employment outlook improved. Trump nominated a new Fed governor who is expected to be dovish. India may not retaliate against US tariffs. Fed official Kashkari believes that the US economy is slowing and rate cuts may be appropriate, with a 93.4% probability of a rate cut in September according to CME. The US service industry index showed signs of stagnation, and the risk of stagflation is rising. In China, exports in July increased by 7.2% year - on - year (in US dollars), and the total import and export value in the first seven months increased by 3.5% year - on - year, with high - tech product trade growing strongly [9]. - Supply and Demand Situation: Overseas, Codelco's Chilean mine has not restarted, and the Panama project may not resume production this year. Six overseas mining companies have lowered their production targets. In China, the production of large and medium - sized smelters was high in July but is expected to decline slightly in August. In terms of demand, power grid investment weakened, the开工 rate of wire and cable enterprises decreased, the consumption of the wind and solar industries is expected to decline, and the new energy vehicle market is in the off - season but still has year - on - year growth. Overall, domestic demand decreased slightly month - on - month but remained resilient year - on - year, and the market maintained a tight balance [10]. 3. Industry News - Codelco's El Teniente copper mine earthquake may be caused by mining activities. The company has applied to restart part of the mine and is investigating the cause. If the mine remains closed, it will exacerbate the global copper supply shortage and increase Codelco's financial pressure. Restarting the mine requires convincing regulators and unions of the stability of the entire underground operation area [12]. - Teck Resources' Q2 2025 copper production was 109,000 tons, a 1.2% year - on - year decrease and a 2.8% quarter - on - quarter increase. Antamina's production decreased due to an accident and lower ore treatment volume, while Highland Valley Copper's production increased. Antamina's 2025 copper production is expected to be between 80,000 - 90,000 tons. Quebrada Blanca's Q2 production was 52,700 tons, a 2.7% year - on - year increase and a 24.6% quarter - on - quarter increase. The QB port facility's loading machine malfunction is expected to last until H1 2026, and production is not expected to be affected. QBII's 2025 copper production guidance is revised down to 210,000 - 230,000 tons [13]. - The processing fee of 8mm T1 cable wire rods in East China decreased slightly last week due to the decline in the spot premium of domestic copper and weak restocking by cable enterprises in the off - season. The processing fees in different regions vary. The price of 8mm T3 low - oxygen copper rods in South and Southwest China increased by $50 - 100/ton compared with last week. The operating rate of domestic refined copper rod enterprises is expected to be under slight pressure in mid - August [14][15]. 4. Relevant Charts - The report provides multiple charts showing the price trends of Shanghai copper and LME copper, inventory changes in LME, COMEX, and SHFE, and other related data such as basis, premium, and TC [16][18][21][22][26][27][29][32][35][38]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Last week, the CBOT November soybean contract fell 1.5 to close at 986.5 cents per bushel, a decline of 0.15%; the September soybean meal contract rose 35 to close at 3,045 yuan per ton, an increase of 1.16%; the South China soybean meal spot price rose 50 to 2,920 yuan per ton, an increase of 1.74%; the September rapeseed meal contract rose 98 to close at 2,773 yuan per ton, an increase of 3.66%; the Guangxi rapeseed meal spot price rose 90 to 2,620 yuan per ton, an increase of 3.56% [4]. - U.S. soybeans are in a weak and volatile state. The overall weather in the production areas is good, with a crop good - to - excellent rate of 69%, which is at a relatively high level in the same period. The new - crop export sales of U.S. soybeans slightly exceeded expectations. The cost - effectiveness advantage attracted more purchases from other countries, but the absence of China, the largest buyer, led to a still slow overall sales progress. In China, there is still a supply of near - term soybeans and soybean meal. As time passes, the expectation of tight supply in the distant future is strengthening, and the Dalian soybean meal futures are oscillating and slightly rising. Due to factors such as the peak season for aquaculture and the expected decrease in future arrivals, rapeseed meal has a greater upward elasticity [4][7]. - The precipitation in the U.S. soybean production areas is generally at the average level, but the western production areas will be dry in the next two weeks. The crop conditions are good. Attention should be paid to the upcoming USDA report. Under the current import tax rate of U.S. soybeans, it is difficult for them to enter the Chinese market. However, the procurement of old - crop Brazilian soybeans is becoming more difficult, and the premium is running strongly. As time passes, the expectation of tight supply is strengthening, and the domestic futures market may continue to strengthen. For other countries, the cost - effectiveness of U.S. soybeans is prominent, and the purchase volume will also increase. The overseas market may oscillate at a low level. Overall, in the short term, the Dalian soybean meal futures may oscillate and strengthen [4][11]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Data | Contract | 8/8 | 8/1 | Change | Change Rate | Unit | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | CBOT Soybean | 986.50 | 988.00 | - 1.50 | - 0.15% | Cents per bushel | | CNF Import Price: Brazil | 485.00 | 468.00 | 17.00 | 3.63% | Dollars per ton | | CNF Import Price: U.S. Gulf | 443.00 | 450.00 | - 7.00 | - 1.56% | Dollars per ton | | Brazilian Soybean Crushing Margin on the Futures Market | - 42.65 | - 20.24 | - 22.41 | - | Yuan per ton | | DCE Soybean Meal | 3045.00 | 3010.00 | 35.00 | 1.16% | Yuan per ton | | CZCE Rapeseed Meal | 2773.00 | 2675.00 | 98.00 | 3.66% | Yuan per ton | | Soybean Meal - Rapeseed Meal Spread | 272.00 | 335.00 | - 63.00 | - | Yuan per ton | | Spot Price: East China | 2940.00 | 2900.00 | 40.00 | 1.38% | Yuan per ton | | Spot Price: South China | 2920.00 | 2870.00 | 50.00 | 1.74% | Yuan per ton | | Spot - Futures Spread: South China | - 125.00 | - 140.00 | 15.00 | - | Yuan per ton | [5] 3.2 Market Analysis and Outlook - U.S. soybean production area weather: The overall weather in the U.S. soybean production areas is good, with a crop good - to - excellent rate of 69%. The precipitation is generally at the average level, but the western production areas will be dry in the next two weeks. The USDA report is about to be released [4][7][9]. - U.S. soybean export situation: The new - crop export sales of U.S. soybeans slightly exceeded expectations. The cost - effectiveness advantage attracted more purchases from other countries, but China, the largest buyer, was absent, and the overall sales progress was still slow. As of the week ending July 31, 2025, the net export sales of U.S. soybeans in the current market year were 468,000 tons, and the cumulative export sales of 2024/2025 U.S. soybeans had completed the USDA's expected target. The net export sales of 2025/2026 U.S. soybeans in the current week were 545,000 tons, and the cumulative sales in this year were 3.58 million tons, while China had not purchased new - crop U.S. soybeans [4][7][9]. - Domestic supply situation: There is still a supply of near - term soybeans and soybean meal in China. As time passes, the expectation of tight supply in the distant future is strengthening. As of the week ending August 1, 2025, the soybean inventory of major oil mills was 6.5559 million tons, an increase of 100,000 tons from the previous week; the soybean meal inventory was 1.0416 million tons, a decrease of 1,500 tons from the previous week; the outstanding contracts were 6.7687 million tons, an increase of 2.5386 million tons from the previous week. The soybean inventory at national ports was 8.237 million tons, an increase of 152,000 tons from the previous week [7][9][10]. - Market performance: The Dalian soybean meal futures are oscillating and slightly rising. Due to factors such as the peak season for aquaculture and the expected decrease in future arrivals, rapeseed meal has a greater upward elasticity [4][7]. 3.3 Industry News - StoneX predicts that the U.S. soybean production in 2025 will reach 4.425 billion bushels, with an average yield of 53.6 bushels per acre. The predicted soybean production in Brazil in 2025/26 will be 177.2 million tons, an increase of 5.6% from the previous year due to an increase in planting area and crop yield [12]. - Celeres estimates that the soybean planting area in Brazil in 2025/26 will increase by 962,000 hectares or 2% to 48.6 million hectares. If this increase is realized and the yield slightly increases, Brazil is expected to achieve a record production of 177.2 million tons [12]. - As of the week ending July 30, the good - to - excellent rate of rapeseed crops in Saskatchewan, Canada was 67.84%. Due to recent wet weather, the rapeseed harvest in the EU 27 and the UK has been delayed, and the predicted rapeseed production in 2025/26 is 20.3 million tons, the same as the previous forecast [13][14]. - Safras & Mercado reports that the sales volume of Brazilian soybeans in 2025/26 has reached 16.8% of the expected production, and the sales volume in 2024/25 has reached 78.4% of the expected production [13]. - The soybean crushing profit in Mato Grosso, Brazil from July 28 to August 1 was 390 reais per ton, down from 435.55 reais per ton in the previous week [13]. - As of the week ending July 30, the cumulative sales of 2024/25 soybeans by Argentine farmers were 27.9605 million tons, and the cumulative export sales registration volume was 8.04 million tons [14]. - The predicted soybean planting area in Brazil in 2025/26 will increase at the slowest rate in nearly 20 years, with an estimated planting area of 48.13 million hectares, an increase of 1.43% from the previous year. The predicted soybean production is 166.56 million tons, lower than the previous year's 168.74 million tons [15]. 3.4 Relevant Charts The report provides multiple charts, including the trend of U.S. soybean continuous contracts, the CNF arrival price of Brazilian soybeans, the RMB spot exchange rate trend, the crushing profit by region, the trend of soybean meal main contracts, the spot price of soybean meal in each region, the CBOT net position of managed funds, the spot - futures spread of soybean meal, the precipitation and temperature in U.S. soybean production areas, the flowering rate and good - to - excellent rate of U.S. soybeans, the cumulative export sales volume of U.S. soybeans to the world, the weekly net sales volume of U.S. soybeans, the cumulative sales volume of new - crop U.S. soybeans, the weekly net sales volume of U.S. soybeans to China, the weekly export volume of U.S. soybeans, the U.S. oil mill crushing profit, the weekly average daily trading volume and pick - up volume of soybean meal, the soybean inventory at ports and oil mills, the weekly crushing volume and crushing start - up rate of oil mills, the soybean meal inventory of oil mills, and the soybean meal inventory days of feed enterprises [16][21][24].

Group 1: Report Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Views - Last week, the main contract price of Shanghai lead futures rebounded weakly. The market strengthened the expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut in September, and China's import and export data in July were good, with stable economic growth and a slight increase in market risk appetite [3][6][7]. - Fundamentally, the improvement of the raw material side was not obvious. The processing fees of lead concentrates at home and abroad were under pressure, the supply - demand contradiction of waste batteries still existed, and the price was firm. However, downstream smelters were cautious in high - price purchases, and recyclers lacked confidence [3][6][7]. - In the smelting sector, the production of primary lead smelters was stable. Some smelters were under maintenance for a month in mid - and late August, and the supply in August was expected to increase slightly month - on - month. For secondary lead, the sewage inspection in Anhui affected local smelters, boosting the market sentiment and leading to a rebound in lead prices. Currently, smelters still had large losses, and unplanned production cuts were possible [3][6][7]. - On the demand side, the peak season was dull. In August, the impact of tariffs emerged, new export orders for batteries decreased, and due to high temperatures in many places, some battery enterprises took holidays, with limited production increase space [3][6][7]. - Overall, the rebound of interest rate cut expectations suppressed the US dollar, supporting lead prices. The sewage inspection in Anhui slightly disturbed the supply side and boosted market sentiment, but the impact was controllable. With stable electrolytic lead production, mediocre consumption, and high inventory pressure, the lead price rebound lacked sustainability. In the short term, lead prices were expected to fluctuate and consolidate, with resistance around 17,000 yuan [3][6][7]. Group 3: Summary by Directory Transaction Data - From July 18th to July 25th, the SHFE lead price rose from 16,735 yuan/ton to 16,845 yuan/ton, an increase of 110 yuan/ton; the LME lead price rose from 1,974 dollars/ton to 2,003.5 dollars/ton, an increase of 29.5 dollars/ton; the Shanghai - London ratio decreased from 8.48 to 8.41; the SHFE inventory decreased by 949 tons to 62,334 tons; the LME inventory decreased by 6,950 tons to 268,375 tons; the social inventory decreased by 0.18 million tons to 7.11 million tons; the spot premium remained at - 150 yuan/ton [4]. Market Review - Last week, the main PB2509 contract of Shanghai lead futures rebounded weakly, closing at 16,845 yuan/ton, a weekly increase of 0.66%. LME lead stopped falling and rebounded, closing at 2,003.5 dollars/ton, a weekly increase of 1.49% [5]. - In the spot market as of August 8th, the prices of lead in Shanghai and Jiangsu - Zhejiang regions were at a discount to the SHFE 2509 contract. Recycled lead smelting enterprises tried to maintain prices, and the recycled refined lead was quoted at a premium of 0 - 50 yuan/ton to the SMM 1 lead average price [5]. - In terms of inventory, as of August 8th, the LME weekly inventory decreased by 6,950 tons to 268,375 tons, and the SHFE inventory decreased by 949 tons to 62,334 tons. As of August 7th, the SMM five - region social inventory decreased by 800 tons compared with Monday and 0.18 million tons compared with last Thursday. However, due to the approaching delivery of the current - month contract, there was a possibility of inventory stop - falling and rebound [6]. Industry News - As of August 8th, the average domestic lead concentrate processing fee was 500 yuan/metal degree, and the average import ore processing fee was - 60 dollars/dry ton, both remaining unchanged from the previous period [8]. - The sewage inspection in Anhui affected local secondary lead smelters. Some smelters stopped production and waited for further notice, while others maintained production [8]. Related Charts - The report provides 14 charts, including SHFE and LME lead prices, inventory, lead ingot premiums, spreads between primary and recycled lead, waste battery prices, recycled lead enterprise profits, lead ore processing fees, lead production, social inventory, and refined lead import profit and loss [9][12][13][15].

Group 1: Report's Investment Rating - There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report. Group 2: Core Views - Weak economic and employment data in the US increased market expectations of economic slowdown and Fed rate cuts, with the possibility of a September rate cut exceeding 90%. The proportion of molten aluminum decreased in July, leading to an increase in aluminum ingot supply. The consumption side has support from the new energy vehicle and power sectors but is also dragged down by issues such as the slowdown in photovoltaic growth, decline in household appliance consumption, and decrease in export growth. Aluminum prices are expected to fluctuate within a range [3][7]. Group 3: Summary by Directory Transaction Data - LME 3 - month aluminum price rose from 2571.5 yuan/ton to 2615 yuan/ton. SHFE aluminum continuous - three price rose from 20420 dollars/ton to 20610 dollars/ton. The Shanghai - London aluminum ratio decreased by 0.1. LME aluminum inventory increased by 7775 tons to 470575 tons, while SHFE aluminum warehouse receipt inventory decreased by 5059 tons to 43599 tons [4]. Market Review - The weekly average price of the spot market decreased by 20 yuan/ton to 20590 yuan/ton, and the Southern Reserve spot weekly average price decreased by 10 yuan/ton to 20596 yuan/ton. The US announced new tariff rates, and the initial jobless claims increased. The domestic downstream aluminum processing industry's operating rate increased slightly, and inventories of electrolytic aluminum ingots and aluminum rods increased [5][6]. Market Outlook - Rising Fed rate - cut expectations support the macro - bullish atmosphere, but there are also risks of economic decline due to tariffs and market risk - aversion sentiment. Fundamentally, aluminum ingot supply is expected to increase, and consumption is in the off - peak season. Aluminum prices are expected to fluctuate within a range [3][7]. Industry News - In July 2025, China's exports of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products were 54.2 tons, and from January to July, it was 346.2 tons, a 7.90% decrease year - on - year. In Q1 2025, the aluminum demand in the US and Canada decreased by 4.4% year - on - year. In July, the wholesale sales of new energy passenger vehicles in China increased by 25% year - on - year [8]. Related Charts - The report provides charts on LME aluminum 3 - SHFE aluminum continuous - three price trends, Shanghai - London aluminum ratio, LME aluminum premium/discount, and other relevant data [9][10].